There seems to be a fair amount of enthusiasm for Ruben Gallego on Balloon Juice.
Here’s his ad, in case you haven’t seen it.
Growing up poor, all I had was the American dream. It kept me going: as a kid sleeping on the floor, a student scrubbing toilets, a Marine losing brothers in Iraq.
Today, too many Arizonans see their dream slipping away. I’m running for the U.S. Senate to win it back for you! pic.twitter.com/ofUvUYRcTP
— Ruben Gallego (@RubenGallego) January 23, 2023
Here’s not shy! Here’s Ruben Gallego, 2 months ago, calling out Kyrsten Sinema for not raising a finger to help Democrats win in November.
The article below makes the case that Democrats are waiting to see what kind of support financial support Ruben Gallego gets from donors within Arizona, because small-dollar donations from individuals is likely to be correlated to votes, and they want want to see what kind of enthusiasm there is before the party is willing to support him publicly.
That seems like a smart strategy to me, but I am certainly not a Democratic party strategist. What do you guys think about that?
So as you can see Gallego’s announcement on Monday that he would challenge Sinema in the Democratic primary has been somewhat of a slow train coming. Funny thing is while having a Democrat officially challenge Sinema puts the national party in an awkward situation, it’s actually the frustrated liberals in Arizona who are now on the clock.
I’ll explain.
The deadline to report all of the money a candidate receives and spends in the first quarter is April 15, but the books close March 31. That leaves Gallego and his supporters a little more than two months to raise enough money to prove there’s either enthusiasm for him or enough blue anger at Sinema to warrant national resources. And it can’t just be big checks from outsiders. There needs to be proof that there would be votes as well as dollars. As one political operative told me, national leaders will be focusing more on the small checks from local residents to gauge how viable Gallego’s chances are before deciding how to back him.
And if his first-quarter numbers are strong, the national party will have to back him, which will undoubtedly affect how the incumbent maneuvers in the Senate. Though keep in mind, Sinema has yet to announce she’s even seeking reelection. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer wouldn’t say whether he would endorse her if she did. Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin wouldn’t say either. Neither would Gary Peters, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
If this were baseball, she would be out. But this is politics, and Gallego — while liked — isn’t necessarily known around the state for his fundraising prowess, I’m told. So, national Democrats aren’t being coy, as much as patient. They really don’t have to say anything until the wallets in Arizona do first.
Besides, this whole dynamic is new to all of us.
While we have independents besides Sinema in the Senate now, Maine and Vermont don’t have nearly as many variables to negotiate, starting with race. Maine and Vermont are more than 95% white. Nearly a third of Arizonans are Latino. Indigenous and Black make up another 11%. Then there’s the politics surrounding the border — and I’m not talking about the Canadian one. But the biggest variable is size. Of the 4.3 million registered voters in the state, a third are independents.
…
This is why the Federal Election Commission quarterly report is so instrumental in determining the party’s next move. The amount of local money going to Gallego — or another challenger — provides clarity. Unless there is a measurable indication that liberal voters in Arizona are really ready to move on from Sinema, why would Schumer and company speak against her during the primary and alienate a potential ally? And remember, Gallego must prove he’s a viable candidate not only against Sinema but against whatever Republican might emerge to face him.
I remember when Barack Obama asked for $5 donations in 2007, and he touted the # of donations more than the dollars raised. I still have my little Obama HOPE lapel pin, and I’m still choosing hope over fear, but my hope is a lot more guarded than it was in 2007 and 2008.
Open thread.
Old School
Do the reports to the FEC break down donations by inside vs outside Arizona?
WaterGirl
@Old School: I believe they do. The reason I think so is that when I was checking out various House candidates after someone nominated them for our purple House thermometer, I am 99.9% certain those were broken out by in-state and national donations.
Mike in NC
Read today that Republicans are desperately trying to recruit Sinema to join Team QAnon.
WaterGirl
@Mike in NC: Of course they are. Are you referring to the R caucus in the Senate, or candidacy in 2024? Guess it’s the former.
Schumer and others are publicly saying what a great D senator she is, and they are most definitely not going to come out early for Ruben Gallego because they surely think / know she is so fucking petty that she would leave the Ds in a huff if that happened.
Geminid
I’m not looking for Senators Schumer, Durbin or Peters to endorse Gallego. Sinema’s still in their caucus, they need her vote, and they are not going to alienate her over something that really does not matter. Arizona Democrats aren’t going to care what Senators in Waskington do or don’t do with regards to this race.
lee
I’m more of a ‘write the check’ than the volunteer supporter. When the primaries hit, I’m seriously thinking of heading to Arizona to volunteer.
Baud
@Geminid: Agreed. And no one should be pressuring national Dems to get involved for just that reason. Maybe when we’re in the fall of 2024, but not sooner.
Old School
@WaterGirl:
Not sure. This (PDF) appears to be the form that gets filed. I don’t see anything that would break out only donations from Arizona.
jonas
@Mike in NC: I would be shocked if Sinema flips — at this point she may be self-absorbed enough to think she can run a successful campaign as an independent, but she’s also smart enough to know that she could never win in Arizona as an R.
Kay
Guffaw – the reactionary centrist men and the Right are going to go bananas.
Delicious – I will completely enjoy that they now have to write 5000 boring essays attacking the 1619 Project – a project which was not preauthorized by them nor did they give permission for it to exist.
The NYTimes and the Atlantic better reserve space! Incoming!
Omnes Omnibus
@Baud: After the primary, the national Dems can make a move. Until then, the Sinema is an (I) caucusing with the Dems and needs to be treated with kid gloves. No one has to like it though.
Baud
@jonas: Right, and if she flips, she’ll be in the minority for the next two years. (Thanks, Georgia!) What does that get her?
stacib
HuffPo is reporting that Adam Schiff has declared for the CA Senate race. Watch out Katie Porter.
Kay
Someone should immediately create a fake 1619 lesson plan for Florida public schools. The substack dopes will jump all over that. “WOKE!”
I think I could do it for Ohio, having been on a school committee for the insanity around the Common Core. Maybe I will.
Kay
@stacib:
OOoh. Good. They’re both strong IMO. I listened to her speak on competition in primaries and I felt like she hit the right note perfectly. It’s a race but it should be substantive and decent.
Geminid
@stacib: I do not know much about California Democratic politics, so I figure this race will be a good occasion to learn.
Baud
@stacib:
@Kay:
Hasn’t Barbara Lee also announced, or did she just announce that she was going to announce?
Old School
@Old School: @WaterGirl:
I guess that information would be there.
For example, here is all of Sinema’s 3rd Q of 2022 donations. It’s not broken down by state, but the addresses are there for someone to do it.
Baud
@Old School: I believe it’s usually the candidate that breaks it down to show their level of in-state support. I don’t think the FEC cares.
Geminid
@Kay: Representative Barbara Lee will run also. She’s not as well known nationally as Schiff and Porter, but is well respected in California.
rikyrah
Are we doing fundraising for him here at BJ?
Kay
@Geminid:
Thanks. Good for her. I don’t think we have to grit our teeth and hate a race, avoid conflict like any disagreement or competition is “divisive” and scary or upsetting. It’s the nature of the thing.
They’re quality candidates and team players, ultimately. It’ll be fine.
Betty Cracker
@Geminid: Isn’t she in her late 70s? I don’t get all these people who are my parents’ age and older running for six-year terms. I’m in my 50s and find the thought exhausting! ;-) I mean, Grassley, FFS!
Shalimar
Sinema has zero chance of winning re-election, and she is no longer running as a Democrat anyway. Who else is an alternative to Gallego? I happen to like him, but anyone else who plans to run needs to announce soon. If Gallego is the default primary winner, I’m not sure why raising a lot of money now proves anything.
Suzanne
I think this is wise.
As I keep reminding everyone, Kyrsten Sinema — believe it or not — does have her fans. There is a small but electorally significant contingent of people who honestly do think she’s the shit. I disagree, but the election doesn’t hinge on me or people like me.
So the Dems have to find someone who unites the factions if they want to hold the seat. And, as I also keep reminding everyone, there is about a three-point GOP registration advantage. So even if the Dems are really excited and united, that alone is not sufficient to win. There also has to be a combination of flipping independents and depressing/demoralizing the GOP turnout.
Living there for a long time made me a believer in consensus candidates. I love Gallego, but there’s no risk of people like me voting GOP or staying home. Therefore, I am not the target market. It is wise to figure out who the target market wants to get behind.
Shalimar
@Geminid: Barbara Lee is amazing, but no one needs to be beginning a Senate career at 78 years old.
Geminid
@rikyrah: I bet we won’t. These will be high dollar campaigns and we would not have a measurable impact.
But Schiff’s appearances on this blog will likely be a critical factor in this race. He may wait though, and save the Balloon Juice card for the November runoff.
Baud
@Geminid:
As will his opponent!
Shalimar
@Suzanne: Who is the someone who unites the factions? This isn’t a hypothetical at this point. Either someone else who can win enters the race this year, or Gallego is going to be the nominee.
Suzanne
@Shalimar:
Yeah, that’s the more interesting question.
Greg Stanton would have been probably the most obvious other contender (former mayor of Phoenix, currently holding the seat in Congress that Sinema held), but he was asked about it as soon as Gallego announced and he said he isn’t going to run for the Senate seat.
There’s some state senators and reps who are good people and would be good, but they don’t have the name recognition or profile they need. There’s former mayors of Tucson and Flagstaff we would like….but the power center is Phoenix/Maricopa County.
Ironically, Kate Gallego (Ruben’s ex-wife) is also likely to have a political career. She’s the current mayor of Phoenix.
rikyrah
If you frequent TikTok, then it’s likely that you came across this father/son duo and their sketches.
The father passed away from cancer at just 35.😲😪🙏🏾
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZTRs8sy9u/
WaterGirl
@Kay: I have avoided Hulu as a streaming service, but I would definitely get it for this. Both to watch it and to reward them for doing it.
WaterGirl
@Kay: I hope you do it!
WaterGirl
@Baud: The latter, I believe word came out of the caucus that she told the caucus she was going to run.
But no announcement.
Geminid
@Shalimar: Why not? Lee looks like she’s got six good years left. Nancy Pelosi was an effective Speaker at an older age, and that’s a tougher job than Senator. State Senator Louise Lucas is 78, and she’s probably the most dynamic politician in Virginia.
Suzanne
@Shalimar: The other person who I think might have crossover appeal and who also has a high enough profile to win would be Paul Penzone, Maricopa County sheriff (after Joe Arpaio got kicked to the curb). I don’t know if he’s interested.
WaterGirl
@rikyrah: He is a friend of the blog, for sure!
My guess is that we would handle it like we did Rev. Warnock. Focus on boots on the ground organizations, but put the BJ Warnock thermometer in the sidebar for folks who want to contribute to him anyway, outside of our other efforts.
Plus, if you contribute through a BJ Act Blue thermometer, you get to choose whether the campaign gets your email address and contact info.
Belafon
@Kay: They already have: https://twitter.com/JimHansonDC/status/1615699978655043585?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&force_isolation=true
Shalimar
@Suzanne: Sounds like a lot of good future candidates but no one with a chance of winning next year unless Gallego has a huge scandal.
Belafon
@Suzanne: There was an article somewhere I saw yesterday, maybe here, that showed that he outperforms other Democrats in the state.
New Deal democrat
@Geminid: “I’m not looking for Senators Schumer, Durbin or Peters to endorse Gallego. Sinema’s still in their caucus, they need her vote, and they are not going to alienate her over something that really does not matter.”
100% agree.
OTOH, I think it’s significant that they didn’t get behind Sinema either. As opposed to 2006, when Senate Dems loudly got behind Lieberman.
Miss Bianca
@Suzanne: Yeah, I’ve gotten “sadder but wiser” about a lot of things these days, and your posts about AZ politics has definitely been one of the contributing factors.
I mean that in a *good* way, you understand.
Fat fingers initially typed “sadder but wider”, which is uncomfortably close to an Inconvenient/Inadvertent Truth. :)
Betty Cracker
@New Deal democrat: Good point. Things have changed in the last decade and a half. I have to remind myself of that a lot.
rikyrah
Show me where this has happened![]()
Heartland Signal (@HeartlandSignal) tweeted at 1:47 PM on Thu, Jan 19, 2023:
Wisconsin Assembly Speaker Robin Vos (R) is livid about a fantasy scenario where someone wins the lottery, becomes a multi-millionaire and remains on Medicaid: “How is that right? It’s not!” https://t.co/UuwlM7ZYXK
(https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1616160514081423361?t=iSJYXo6YEvPltmIsyXIAng&s=03)
schrodingers_cat
@Geminid: With Schiff and Lee running Porter’s odds of winning have greatly reduced.
Baud
@rikyrah:
T-Bone Steaks!!!
schrodingers_cat
OT ask:
Can the math professors on Balloon Juice recommend a good history of mathematics book. I am looking for something like a college text book aimed at juniors or seniors or early grad school. Not research level stuff nor stuff aimed at children/young adults. Something preferably from this century.
I have found some likely candidates on Google Books but want to narrow them down. Thanks.
Suzanne
@Shalimar: That’s probably an accurate assessment. The bench of Dems there has traditionally been….not deep. Hah. That’s been changing slowly, but Gallego is probably the best choice.
I can rattle off the names of a lot of good Democratic candidates over the years who didn’t go anywhere. It’s a bummer.
Kay
@WaterGirl:
I like Hulu! I have a friend who reads “marketing magazines” (or something, blah blah, I was in and out) and he told me Hulu is “cool dad” branded. So I am a cool…dad. My youngest would say “not ‘cool’, but try too hard dad” because he’s gotten meaner at college. The other students are all a bad influence.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@rikyrah: Dick Uihlein is 77 YO, I’m guessing his wife is over 65. Are they on Medicare? Should they pay a little more in taxes to balance things out? They have literally millions of dollars to give away to politicians working to…. cut their taxes.
(just checked Wiki to confirm his age. I did not know that besides the packing company, Dickie is an heir to the Schlitz brewing fortune, which apparently outlasted the actual brew. Yet another bootstrap billionaire with a billion dollar head start)
Barbara
@Baud: The latter. I think she filed the paperwork and then announced that she was still considering. Anyway, she did not formally announce her candidacy.
geg6
@Belafon:
I have seen the same and damned if I can remember where I saw it.
Kay
@rikyrah:
Clown. They are getting ready to gut Medicaid though, the federal portion. They’re furious that poor people no longer receive health care in the horse barn at the county fairgrounds.
Medicaid expansion is this giant unsung accomplishment of D’s – Obama and Pelosi. If the two of them had done nothing else it would be a great legacy. TENS OF MILLIONS got access to basic health care not during LBJ’s time but from 2006 to 2012.
I’m almost glad media doesn’t give a rats ass about poor people and only cover Medicare. It’s like they’re protected from horrible, dumb coverage. “Don’t mind us! Carry on with …whatever it is you cover!” :)
You watch- Medicaid is on the GOP chopping block.
Suzanne
@Belafon:
I didn’t see that, but I believe it. I think he’s a good candidate (although, as I always remind myself, my opinion doesn’t matter — that’s the downside of being a strong partisan).
The risks that I see that are about Gallego specifically, as opposed to Some Other Generic Democrat, is that he has also been a strong partisan/progressive and he’s very outspoken and intentionally kind of a bomb-thrower. Historically, AZ Dems who win, like Janet Napolitano, Mark Kelly, Kathy Hoffman….are all kind of not flashy, not attention-seek-y, they come across as very polite and managerial and “common sense above party”. I don’t want to say “centrist” because that term has connotations of nonsense that I don’t intend. Gallego is the guy who uses swear words and starts shit on Twitter, and is very explicit about calling out Republican bullshit.
Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg
Why did I give up on giving a shit about the plight of the common clay of white working class American men in the Heartland of the South and Rust Belt?
Scene:
The last hour and 15 minutes of me on the phone. The caller resides in a rural space and is unhappy about an energy company acquiring an adjoining property for the purpose of operating a mine. There would be 400-500 people employed there, his road would be widened to accommodate the traffic, there would be an exhaust fan as loud as a jet engine, there would be a rock dust pit the consistency of talcum powder, and the whole operation would be in a depression and thus visible from all the homes. Permitting is politically greased and virtually assured, as is the road widening project.
My quick review indicated that litigation was not only feasible, but likely successful based on recent appellate opinions (even if the local judge tried to shoot it down).
Thing is, I can’t be mean to the coal company by filing the kind of suit that I was describing, because surely there is some aspect of law that gives him money just because he worked his ass off for what he has. He’s worried about his neighbors and coworkers being mad at him for taking on the coal company. The fact that some of my positives about litigation were was based on an opinion that sprung from application of the Clean Air Act bothered him because the Clean Air Act is bad. Me asking him where his wife works is none of my business (I was trying to see if there were splash effects from their employment). No, he wasn’t going to confer with his wife about this because his decision is the one that is final, and he doesn’t want his kid to suffer a lifetime of hate because he took on the coal company.
Fucking coward.
Kay
If someone wants to start an actually useful Dem interest group/campaign org, start one now that focuses on Medicaid expansion and is targeted toward young lower wage working women who have children. They are all on Medicaid and Republicans want to and wil gut Medicaid if they get a chance to.
Get ahead of them. Start screaming they want to cut Medicaid and throw children off.
You could do it for half a million dollars.
Shalimar
@rikyrah: Why in the world would a multi-millionaire be happy settling for crappy Medicaid?
Plus, I assume Wisconsin is better, but in Florida it is pretty much impossible to get Medicaid if you don’t have children. It has turned into a program that single people in poverty can’t be poor enough to qualify for.
Baud
@Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg:
Surely there’s a black person in the community he can blame for what the coal company is doing to him.
WaterGirl
@geg6: It was definitely on BJ, yesterday
I think it was on one of my threads.edit: Pretty sure it was in this post from Anne Laurie.
kindness
I already donated a small (<$100) amount to Ruben. No doubt I will give more as time goes on. We need to make this AZ seat Democratic. I think in a 3 way race with a wingnut Republican, Sinema & Ruben, Ruben wins. And yes, wingnuts control the Republican primary so of course it’ll be Lake or Blake again.
Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg
@Baud:
A black trans person with a Hispanic surname….
Betty Cracker
@Kay:
True — that was an enormous downward transfer of wealth, which is why Republican governors like Rick Scott (at the time) were out there screaming “keep your filthy free money out of MY state!” As dumb and inattentive as Americans generally are, I honestly expected more people in affected states to get mad about that, but they didn’t even notice.
Baud
@Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg:
What does this have to do with George Santos?
Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg
@Baud: 😂
Not gonna lie – when I said here’s a case where somebody raised the Clean Air Act to try to block relief, he audibly gasped.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
I think people spent a long time debating whether Obamacare went too far or not far enough, and by the time that died down, the window for outrage had closed.
gene108
A great thing about Medicaid expansion is increasing the income limit before a person loses Medicaid. This is rarely, if ever, mentioned. Working part time won’t cause a loss of healthcare. Medicaid expansion actually gives people on the bottom rungs safety to seek employment, instead of not working for fear of losing access to healthcare.
I had a friend on SSDI, 20 years ago, who had gotten well enough to want to work part time, as long as she continued to receive treatment. She lived in Delaware. A part time job at Wendy’s would’ve put her over the income limit, and she’d have lost access to healthcare.
Matt McIrvin
@Betty Cracker: As those governors well knew, people get way madder about something they had being taken away from them than about being denied something they never got in the first place.
That was why there was so much outrage about the people on crap individual insurance plans being (apparently) forced to buy more expensive ones, and so little about states refusing to expand Medicaid. The people affected by the latter had never gotten decent health insurance anyway and didn’t expect to.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: This is tangential to what you are saying but the healthcare debate in this country is surreal.
The DSA roses and the Republican party are not just on different pages in the healthcare debate they are on different planets
And elected Democrats never get any credit for the meaningful steps they do take regarding healthcare. Whatever they do is simultaneously too little and or an overreach of epic proportions.
Kay
@Betty Cracker:
I ran into it with people who were paying a lot out of pocket for employer-based coverage where the Obamacare subsidy was higher. They thought that was unfair and it is unfair. But you’re right- Medicaid runs beneath what they think about. Rest assured providers know what happened though- they’re getting paid instead of acting as collection agencies or writing off bad debt.
Pelosi was queitely and doggedly expanding health care her whole career and then she got the ideal President for it in Obama. Republicans have no accomplished anything NEAR as profound for ordinary people, ever. It will pay over decades too. The little kids who get ordinary care now will not need as much expensive care when they are older. It’s a great investment. Just Medicaid DENTAL alone for little kids avoids so much suffering and they find a closer relationship between dental health and overall health all the time. This will be paying off for Americans long after Obama and Pelosi are both dead.
gene108
@Betty Cracker:
Part of the problem in trying to achieve universal healthcare in America has been that most people have health insurance through their employer, and then roll over onto Medicare. Prior to the last 20 years, employer health insurance was pretty good for the people who had it. Tinkering with health insurance meant most people had something substantial to lose and so fear mongering worked.
Another reason is the group that gets the most media attention are middle class and wealthier suburbanites. People who lost out on states not expanding Medicaid aren’t in the middle class suburban demographic.
So Medicaid expansion is something that doesn’t impact most people, and the people impacted don’t get the media coverage to make the issue more prominent in the minds of the majority.
Betty Cracker
@Baud: The abstract debate is and was a bit esoteric for Normieville, but in practical terms, the government is handing out wads of cash in some states to fund free healthcare for residents and keep rural hospitals open, whereas in other states residents have no coverage and hospitals are shuttered because their state government won’t accept federal money. And lots of affected people either don’t know or don’t care.
Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg
@Kay:
Scaled benefits always pay off in outcomes – problem is, they’re too far down the road.
Cameron
@Kay: If you get caught with it in Florida, you’ll get arrested.
Betty Cracker
@gene108: It affects everyone though, especially if you live in a red state shithole town with a rural hospital that went broke and closed. There are ripple effects to that no matter where you get your healthcare coverage. I accept that people don’t see that, but it’s still true.
ETA: It’s like when people whose grandmas are in nursing homes don’t comprehend that Medicaid picks up the costs. Whether they want to admit it or not, it does.
CaseyL
@Matt McIrvin:
This is a big problem when trying to convince people to support Democrats because Democrats believe governments should make life better for people.
It’s been 40 years since Reagan took a sledgehammer to so, so many government programs, and a wrecking ball to the tax code. Most people not only don’t remember what it was like to NOT have oligarchs controlling the economy, they don’t remember when things like roads, schools, and hospitals were considered normal, ordinary things that society was supposed to provide for its citizens.
In fact, today’s numbnuts GOP voters deny that government should even have a role in those things. For two generations, they’ve had propaganda tell them government can’t do these things well, shouldn’t do them at all, or even never has done them. And they believe every word, because it’s been two generations since they’ve seen otherwise.
I don’t know how to get through to them. The vast programs the Inflation Reduction Act will hopefully have some effect, but it won’t be soon, and I no longer have any faith the American people can figure out cause and effect that takes longer than 5 minutes to unfold.
UncleEbeneezer
@WaterGirl: Hulu has some great stuff: The Bear, Atlanta, Reservation Dogs and now this. You could always just subscribe for a month or two and then bail. That’s what we usually do. Warning though: the ad breaks can be very annoying especially when watching a movie.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
Well, we’re down to Southern states, KS, WI, and WY when it comes to states that haven’t expanded Medicaid.
Status of State Medicaid Expansion Decisions: Interactive Map | KFF
The Moar You Know
@Deputinize Eurasia from the Kuriles to St Petersburg: Shrug.
I mean, you wasted an hour and a half of your life that you’ll never get back and that part sucks, but fuck this guy. There’s a life preserver right there, you’re trying to hand it to him, but he’s waiting for the Lord to come down from heaven in a blaze of Trump 2024 flags and hand him a bunch of money beaten out of hippies and libtards so he can move to Texas or Florida and not trouble his empty head about his former neighbors who now have to deal with a coal inferno.
Fuck him right in the eye with a shovel.
Kay
@Cameron:
I used to read Hannah-Jones Twitter and people are absolutely unhinged about the 1619 project and her personally. I just cannot believe any person reading it could miss that it is about race.
The gatekeepers of Official Liberalism and also Official Civil Rights History didn’t give her permission to operate in the fucking world. They’re mad that she went ahead anyway. Why are they so threatened by this written work? Why can’t it exist alongside everything else? It’s an ADDITION. No one is TAKING anything from them.
artem1s
“they want want to see what kind of enthusiasm there is before the party is willing to support him publicly”
I hope they are using the time to properly vet him as well. Dems have had issues with mistaking lots of little donations as ‘enthusiasm’. It’s easy to paypal someone a couple of bucks,especially as a FU gesture towards Sinema or some other candidate you hate. That momentary “enthusiasm” for tossing her to the curb does not necessary translate to GOTV for any specific candidate. And it won’t buy him state-wide name recognition that you need for a Senate seat either.
MisterDancer
Very true. I posted in past how this has also applied to Abortion and Reproductive Justice — the anti-choice asshats targeted “legal” systems that undercut abortion to poor people and teens first and foremost. Any state w/a waiting period effectively made Roe a dead law for most poor people, and that’s been true for decades.
It’s no coincidence that these people also, in many cases, are what I call “too broke to vote” — lacking reliable transportation, or PTO at your job, to get to the polls, even in states with robust early voting capabilities.
In a better world, the media would be calling this out.
Matt McIrvin
@CaseyL: Obamacare has had an effect, in that the things it did give people are now entrenched benefits that will make them mad if they are threatened. They don’t necessarily associate those benefits with Obamacare or with Democrats. But they know they want to keep getting them.
That’s a win. After all the point of all this isn’t to get people for vote for the right team, it’s to get better policies in place and make sure they stay there. There was an extended period when it seemed like this or that might torpedo the ACA completely–some crazy legal argument about a nonseverable typo, some kind of “card says Moops”, “one weird trick” thing that would just nullify it, replaced with nothing. They keep trying, but I do think we’re past the point where some attack like that would just stick permanently.
Baud
@Matt McIrvin: The way they’ll attack Obamacare is to fragment the risk pool, so that healthier, less costly people obtain cheaper junk insurance, which makes Obamacare more expensive.
Betty Cracker
@Kay: Yep, the gatekeeping hysteria is a tell. People have examined history, literature, the law, etc., through lots of different lenses. If readers find it unpersuasive, they can point out the flaws and offer a different view. But that’s not what’s happening here. It’s so dangerous it must be banned — even college students aren’t mature enough to handle it!
Kent
The Senate is very much built on seniority and part of the point of electing a Senator is so that they will eventually rise in the ranks and give your state clout. So it is one thing for say Washington to re-elect 72 year old Patty Murray who has 30 years of seniority in the Senate and has the power to actually get shit done for Washington. It is another thing entirely for California to elect a 78 year old freshman Senator who will never be around long enough to achieve any sort of seniority.
I don’t necessarily think there should be a maximum age in the Senate. But there is definitely a maximum practical age to run as a freshman Senator. And 78 is WAY past that age. Katie Porter is 49 and Adam Schiff is 62. I’d personally rather see Schiff in the house leadership but that’s neither here nor there I guess.
Barbara
@Kent: I personally think Schiff would make a better senator than Porter because it seems to me that would be better able to navigate the nearly impenetrable bureaucracy that is the Senate. I think iconoclasts like Porter are less likely to be effective senators. IMHO
Kent
Honestly it isn’t actual historians doing the gatekeeping here. Sure there are some who disagree with her premise and thesis. Or pick at the odd detail. But they aren’t generally the ones calling for her to be censored. It is non-historian politicians who are mostly doing that. The DeSantis types. Or the fraudster fake historians like David Barton who are really just racist propagandists and liars.
Qrop Non Sequitur
Never. And posts on Balloon Juice don’t count.
::Shakes fists:: The left!!!1!!!111¿! 🤬
Ohio Mom
Just a reminder, if we are talking about threats to Medicaid: Medicaid supports disabled people in essential ways, not just healthcare (as if health care is in the category of “just”).
The Medicaid waiver system funds home health aides, necessary equipment (wheelchairs, etc.), transportation, day and recreational programs, some employment supports, group homes, and the list goes on.
All the things that make living in the community, as independently as possible, possible. (Doesn’t pay for housing, you use your Social Security payment for that.)
Any threat to Medicaid is a threat to the well-being of every disabled American.
Cameron
@Kent: You start reading that kind of stuff and one day you’ll wake up as a woke antifa critical race theory groomer. It’s true – I saw a video by a guy who said he was an expert.
Kent
@Ohio Mom: I looked up a breakdown of actual Medicare spending. It is as follows:
Disabled: 33.4%
Elderly: 22.1%
Adults: 29.5% (19% due to Medicare expansion)
Children: 15.1
So it is true that a majority (55.5%) of all Medicare spending is on elderly and the disabled.
schrodingers_cat
@Qrop Non Sequitur: Posts on Balloon Juice count and are great but I was talking here of our mainstream media, the kind the normies who vote D read.
skerry
Today’s WashPost (gift link)
HIV at center of latest culture war after Tennessee rejects federal funds
Geminid
@artem1s: I’m not sure party institutions will be very influential here. The decision to back Gallegos will be up to rank and file Arizona Democrats. Early polling of two- and three-way races suggests that they support him
As for vetting, the press will look into his background. I expect Sinema’s people will too, and if they find anything they’ll pass it on.
But I don’t think they’re gonna find anything.
schrodingers_cat
@MisterDancer: Our media is colorblind by which I mean blind to people who are not white.
Qrop Non Sequitur
@schrodingers_cat: Rose Twitter went mainstream? Who knew? The disenfranchised masses will welcome this news.
Jeffro
OT but PEOPLE THE CRAZIFICATION FACTOR IS AS REAL AS IT GETS!!!1!
Nearly 3/4 of the country thinks the GQP’s priorities are out of whack.
Guess what percentage thinks they’re just fine???
.
.
.
.
27%!!!!!
OMG
NOTHING in life is THIS reliable! NO-THING.
Betty Cracker
@Kent: Didn’t mean to imply it was historians. By definition, it’s government officials who are in a position to censor, but they’re cribbing their justifications from media influencers like Rufo, et al.
Qrop Non Sequitur
Death? Taxes?
Sure Lurkalot
@gene108:
I perceive this as true but just as it’s framed. Medicaid expansion impacts everyone in the state by devoting federal dollars to what would otherwise be state and local expenditure, helping to stymie lost wages and productivity due to accidents and illness and contributing to the general wellness of the community, in the present and over time.
gwangung
@schrodingers_cat: Rotating tag material.
schrodingers_cat
Its India’s Republic day today and the Republic is barely hanging by a thread.
National Anthem, music composed by A. R. Rahman
(There are two versions instrumental first and vocal later)
This is from a time when India celebrated unity in diversity and hate was not the official order of business. This version of the anthem written by Tagore is performed by a galaxy of stars of Indian musical scene (classical and popular) from all parts of India
*Many are no longer with us. Seeing Lata Mangeshkar, Bhimsen Joshi, Jagjit Singh, Bhupinder Hazarika brought a tear to my eye.
ian
@Baud: Medicaid expansion is a big ongoing fight here in WY. There have been public protests at the capitol building in Cheyenne recently.
The most recent elections brought a supermajority of hard right legislators into power statewide, so the expansion passing is anyone’s guess.
Soprano2
@Shalimar: It was that way in MO too before the expansion that the voters approved and the R’s in the state legislature did everything they could to prevent. I think you couldn’t have income over $200 a month as an adult and be on Medicaid.
Kent
Right. This isn’t an actual historical debate. It is simply the latest manifestation of culture war racism.
Martin
So, California is doing a thing.
Late last year Gavin Newsom signed the Fast Food Accountability and Standards Recovery Act, which creates a kind of industry-wide collective bargaining system. A council would be responsible for setting standards for wages, working hours, and working conditions for workers at fast-food restaurants with at least one hundred establishments nationwide.
“This ten-person council would include four seats held by fast-food franchisor and franchisee representatives, four seats held by fast-food worker representatives and advocates, and two seats held respectively by one representative from the California Department of Industrial Relations and one representative from the Governor’s Office of Business and Economic Development.”
The law limits some of what the council can do, so it’s not as radically transformative as it could have been, but it’s something, and it doesn’t overrule any existing bargaining agreements. There’s a minimum wage ceiling they could set off $22/hr + inflation, and they can’t demand new paid leave for workers.
It looks as though implementation of the law will be postponed until a Nov 2024 ballot initiative is completed, and given how AB5 and Prop 22 played out (AB5 clarified language in the state labor laws which the State Supreme Court had interpreted to classify a wide swath of contract/gig workers employee status, and most people interpreted AB5 as the mechanism to force that shift, it was actually clarifying things to reduce the number of workers that would be classified as employees. Prop 22 gave rideshare companies an exemption to that rule and was passed by voters) I would expect that initiative will pass.
Part of what’s interesting is that the companies fighting this are all paying pretty damn near $22 an hour for workers because of the labor shortage (I’ve yet to see a starting wage advertised below $20.50). I can see them wanting to resist some of the non-wage benefits that might be asked for, but unless Jerome Powell and the House GOP blow up the economy, the biggest component of what the council can do would be effectively nullified before it even has a chance to get going. But I like the overall concept as a possible middle ground between the free market hellscape we have now, and the difficult lift of unionizing and then getting a contract which takes years, in an occupational where workers don’t often stay in one place for years. I wonder if something similar would make sense for farm labor which has similar issues, including difficulty getting workers.
Soprano2
@schrodingers_cat: They’re mostly blind to women too. Remember how they could find all kinds of enthusiastic TFG supporters in 2016, but somehow were completely blind to the millions of middle-aged and older women who supported Hillary. Somehow those women were completely invisible to the press, because I kept hearing about how Hillary didn’t have any enthusiastic supporters.
piratedan
@Suzanne: You’re dead on about the types of Dems that normally win statewide in AZ and people point to Sinema and say, well she proved otherwise. Sinema had certain advantages, namely she had Martha McSally to run against and McSally self-sabotaged her own campaign so much that I believe it was more of an anti-McSally election than one that approved of Ms. Sinema.
Everything you stated about Gallego is true, he’s more confrontational and proud to be a Democrat, with his service and his background, that allows him a certain latitude I believe and the number of people that he may turn off by this, he could very well pick up due to his Hispanic heritage because he IS the embodiment of nose to the grindstone, do the work and earn your respect that plays well among a lot of the libertarian veterans and with the conservative Hispanic constituency.
Gallego announcing early more or less clears the field and removes much opposition because he has a good national and local profile, so unless someone is REALLY ambitious, I don’t see more than a token campaign to perhaps get started for a future step up by other candidates to garner some name recognition.
I really don’t see KS running, because no one wants to lose and her internal polling has to confirm this for her. I think that she’ll come around to the idea that she can flounce or make it a happy ending or just go stealth and follow all of the ridiculous dark money that is to be made and simply be a “persona”.
schrodingers_cat
@Soprano2: Agreed.
Martin
Because Official Liberalism is only slightly less in the bag for white christian nationalism than the GOP is. Official Liberalism doesn’t say it out loud, because they need black votes in the coalition, but if they can get those without black progress, they’ll take that every day of the week if only out of fear that giving that progress will lose white votes in the coalition. And indeed it has lost white votes in the coalition – particularly that white blue collar/labor group. West Virginia went pretty quickly from the state with the highest percentage of registered Democrats in the nation to Obama, who I should note was president at the time, losing 10 counties in the 2012 Democratic primary to a white guy who was in prison.
H.E.Wolf
Open thread, so I’m putting this here for the postcard-writing crowd: Postcards To Voters has another campaign for a Feb. 7 PA state legislative special election. This one is fast-moving, so a few postcards would be plenty.
Joe McAndrew is pro-choice, pro-union, pro-LGBTQ+ rights, and “stalwart in supporting Democratic values”. His district is in the Pittburgh metro region.
https://postcardstovoters.org/addresses/
Baud
@Martin: Who the fuck is Official Liberalism?
Martin
@Suzanne: Given an increasingly armed and combative GOP in Arizona, I would think Gallego’s military ‘no fucks left to give’ approach would play better now than in the past.
piratedan
@Baud: I believe it’s Meghan McArdle, I’m told she has a hat and everything…
Ken
@Baud: And do they have a secret handshake at the meetings?
Geminid
@Kent: Sure, seniority counts in the Senate. But I don’t see Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff waiting around for seniority. They’re getting stuff done in their first terms. Same with Mark Kelly. And their votes count as much as anyone’s.
Baud
@Ken: I think they do that “pull my finger” thing.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
that’s just Dianne Feinstein
Suzanne
@Martin:
Again, I think it’s appealing to me, and to some others. I think it probably is off-putting to others.
Remember McCain’s “complete the dang fence” ad? And how that was scaaaaaaandalous language? Pearls were clutched. Vapors were had.
Kent
Anything that occupies the VAST middle ground between Manchin on the left and Collins on the right.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Near as I can tell, white voters in West Virginia and probably Matt Yglesias.
Suzanne
@piratedan:
Even Sinema has really ramped up the dramatics. She didn’t use to wear weird, flashy clothes. She really has made a hard turn in the last four years or so to raise her “celebrity”.
Geminid
@Suzanne: So what do you think about Gallego’s announcement ad?
People are describing him in abstract terms like “no fucks to give”… “in your face” etc. But that ad is probably a good preview of what Gallego’s actual messaging approach will be.
SteveinPHX
The missus likes Gallegos & sent 25 bucks for his campaign a few days ago. She doesn’t want Sinema or Lake in that office and I’d have to agree
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Geminid: I went looking for this tweet because I incorrectly remembered it as being an endorsement. It’s not, but I think it’s telling
I think it’s also telling about the Balloon Juice demographic that Gallego leans so hard into his military service, and it’s rarely brought up in the comments here. As I said yesterday, Sinema seems to have really, really fallen into her own fantasy– the script of which she is the main character– about being the new John McCain, and somehow doesn’t see the part his military service played, and even with that how long and hard he had to work to create his own legend.
WaterGirl
@UncleEbeneezer: That’s why I won’t do Hulu. I just don’t have the patience to sit through ads. If I’m PAYING for something, do not make me sit through ads. I won’t do it.
schrodingers_cat
@gwangung: Thanks!
Geminid
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I think Ruben Gallego’s military service will be an asset in that race.
Kent
My guess is that it will play well with the average aging white retiree type in Arizona, especially the white males. These were the same demographic that loved the “straight talk” from Sheriff Joe. If he is going to win any crossover votes from elderly GOP voters this is how you do it.
Suzanne
@Geminid: I thought it was good. I think Gallego is good. I like him a lot and I wish I could vote for him.
I think he has crafted his identity thus far on being a bit of a tough guy.
Here’s a Tweet from him in 2021:
He has been this guy for a while, it has raised his profile, and I don’t think it’s going to be easy to just stop being that guy.
Geminid
@Suzanne: As long as Gallego doesn’t talk that way in public, past tweets like that shouldn’t hurt him. He seems like a smart man, smart enough to tone it down now that he’s running for statewide office.
Geminid
@Kent: Gallego might pick up a few Republicans, but it’s the Independent voters who’ll make or break him. He’ll get the Democtrats’ votes, I think.
Independents are hard to psych out because they are a diverse bunch. Intuitively, it seems to me that some will find Gallego’s direct style of speaking refreshing.
Qrop Non Sequitur
@Martin: So, I imagine what you describe as official liberalism does not include most elected Democrats.
Suzanne
@Geminid:
Um, why you think that? This is the same person who called Ted Cruz “fucking baby killer” on Twitter. Here’s a piece in the AZ Republic that calls Gallego a “foul-mouthed Twitter troll”.
I have no idea why — in the same damn country that reported on every damn Trump tweet — you would think that it doesn’t matter. Or that he can just clean it up for a bit in public appearances and that it will just fall down the memory hole. That level of analysis is, quite frankly, dumb as shit. The reason we’ve all been watching with a mix of joy and horror as Elmo kills Twitter is because Twitter matters.
I don’t even necessarily think that it should be something that gets forgotten! Fuck, I just voted for John Fetterman, who shitposted his way to the Senate, and I couldn’t be more thrilled about it. I think Gallego should probably lean in to it. It’s his persona and it’s his brand, and it is inauthentic and shady to pretend to be a different person. But don’t delude yourself that it turns some people off.
Kent
@Suzanne: “Turning some people off” is different from hurting him. I think he wins more voters by being “authentic” in a Fetterman sort of way than he turns off because they get the vapors at a bit of salty language.
Hell, even Elizabeth Warren has been known to use salty language.
gwangung
Yeah, Gallego’s persona may turn some people off (maybe the former or current LDS that Sinema got), but’s it’s going to be appealing to a lot of people, particularly male, somewhat conservative types (which draw from both the Republican and independent segments).
The only question is if the latter group is larger than former, and it’s hard to say from my vantage point.
Suzanne
@Kent: I hope that is true. The question is, of course, people at the edges. Because the people who already like left-leaning bomb throwers who swear at Ted Cruz probably already vote for Democrats.
Suzanne
@gwangung: Agreed. It is difficult to know.
And so much of this depends on his opponent. If they nominate someone like Crazy Kari or Crazy Kelli…. I think Gallego wins that fairly easily. If they nominate someone more like Doug Ducey, I think that is a tighter race.
rikyrah
@Kent:
UH HUH
UH HUH
kindness
Come on now. Look at who Sinema is hanging with. Look at who she openly says she has to protect. Millionaires and billionaires essentially and not the George Soros ones. There is no way those fat cats don’t already have an agreement with Sinema to run as a 3rd party candidate in hopes of splitting the Democratic vote. They’ll pay for her campaign and then pay her after she loses. There is also no way a moderate wins the AZ Republican primary. If I were a betting guy I’d say it’s going to be Kari Lake. In a 3 way race with Lake, Sinema & Ruben, Sinema takes Republican votes from Lake, not Democratic/moderate independent votes from Ruben. That’s my Kreskin moment and I’m sticking to it.
Kent
@rikyrah: Make that Medicaid. I know the difference and keep getting them mixed up. Even in the same paragraph.
Kent
I don’t think Sinema takes many Republican or Democratic votes in a 3-way race. She gets a portion of inattentive “independent” “pox on both their house” voters who would otherwise be gettable by either side in a 2-way race.
The dipshits who think politics is “too political”
Suzanne
@kindness: I am not sure it will be Kari Lake. She got picked because Trump liked her, but I think that, as the GOP continues to drop Trump like he’s hot, they’ll do the same with his weird little candidates.
He really looked for those people who didn’t come from political backgrounds, but I do think that, at some point, the GOP will revert to type. I’d look more to Gosar, Biggs, Ducey, maybe Scott Smith or John Giles.
Kent
PLEASE let it be Gosar. He makes Masters look gregarious and normal.
Paul in KY
@Kent: You do have a good point vis a vis age entering the Senate. I’m a Porter man myself.
Suzanne
@Kent: You know, the weird thing about Blake Masters…. He absolutely came out of nowhere. He obviously ran because of Peter Thiel, but he had, like, zero public profile in the state. Wasn’t even prominent in any of the hobnob-y type golf tournaments or gala dinners at the Phoenician. No political experience at all.
Geminid
@Suzanne: I don’t think Republicans will get traction on a lot of cussing in old tweets.
And if some debate moderator brings it up Gallego will have a good answer ready, something along the lines of, “Sir, I’m a Marine, and if you had served in combat with me in Iraq you would have heard far worse. But now, I am running to represent my state in the Senate, and Arizonans can see I am taking a serious and responsible approach to helping them reclaim the American Dream. UNLIKE THAT PIECE OF SHIT KARI LAKE OVER THERE LYING HER HER SKINNY FUCKING ASS OFF instead of telling voters how she will help them reclaim the American Dream.”
Geminid
@Paul in KY: If I was a California voter, the question of future seniority might be a consideration. But it would be well down my list of qualities I wanted in a Senator.
Geminid
@Suzanne: I remember the story of when a campaign consultant ran some video by a focus group. It showed Blake Masters talking about issues. Masters, the consultant marvelled, got the lowest ratings from a focus group that he had ever seen.
wmd
His campaign has said it raised over $1M in the first day from over 27,000 donations.
Truthout article on Gallego fundraising
No information on in/out of state breakdown.
Geminid
@wmd: There has been buzz about Gallego building for a while now, so this number does not surprise me. Gallego won’t raise money like Katie Porter, but he doesn’t need to either. He’ll get plenty next year for the general election. That will be a “must win” election for Democrats.
Evidently Truthout is taking an interest. Not surprising, since Gallego is Progressive Caucus member while Sinema is a Blue Dog gone bad. It will be good for them to watch his campaign. They could be disappointed to see how a pragmatic progressive runs for Senate in a purple state. But they might learn something too.
Skepticat
It may be the pain meds, but this ad almost made me cry. I’m very tight for money, but I’ll be giving him some.
Fake Irishman
@Kay:
this is old news. Reagan tried to gut Medicaid in 1981, Gringrinch made a huge push in 1995, Bush took a shot in 2001 and the 2017 repeal the ACA intended to blow up Medicaid with a 25 percent cut.
Paul in KY
@Kent: He needs to use humor too. Sen. ‘Too Manly for PA’ Fetterman sure did.
Paul in KY
@Geminid: Yeah, being a senator from CA should be a big deal no matter what your seniority.
jayne
The Gallego campaign emailed me 17 times in 2 days. I have at no point in my life ever lived anywhere near Arizona. I can’t imagine any reality in which this is an effective strategy.
Geminid
@Geminid: I thought some more about potential problem of Ruben Gallego’s vulgar Tweets, and I had to laugh at the problem Republican’s will have trying to exploit them among the large majority of voters who are not on social media. They can’t show them on TV. They can’t have someone read them on the radio. Sure, they could blot out or bleep the words, but they’ll just look like silly blue nosed prigs, especially if voters have material like the Gallego video in the post as a contrast.
I hope Republicans do try to make Gallego’s vulgar tweets an issue. People will be asking, is that all they’ve got?
Geminid
@gwangung: Wikipedia tells me that by the 2020 census numbers, LDS Church members comprise 5.4% of Arizona’s population. The Church says 6%. 5.4% would make them slightly less numerous than the 5.5% of Black Arizonans, and ahead of the 4.9% Native population. Latinos were listed at 30.7%.
LDS Church members might vote at higher rates than the norm.