Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

Usually wrong but never in doubt

Why is it so hard for them to condemn hate?

“woke” is the new caravan.

The willow is too close to the house.

You can’t love your country only when you win.

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

Their freedom requires your slavery.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

“I never thought they’d lock HIM up,” sobbed a distraught member of the Lock Her Up Party.

Take your GOP plan out of the witness protection program.

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

A sufficient plurality of insane, greedy people can tank any democratic system ever devised, apparently.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

No one could have predicted…

Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.

An almost top 10,000 blog!

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

The republican caucus is already covering themselves with something, and it’s not glory.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 336: The Russians Renew Their Bombardment of Ukraine

War for Ukraine Day 336: The Russians Renew Their Bombardment of Ukraine

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As seems to be the case every time Ukraine regains occupied ground or the allies and partners supporting Ukraine increase their support, Russia has once again renewed its bombardment of civilian targets today.

Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, we withstood another massive missile strike by terrorists.

A strike that fully confirms everything we have been talking about with our partners both yesterday and since the beginning of our diplomatic marathon.

This evil, this Russian aggression can and should be stopped only with adequate weapons. The terrorist state will not understand anything else.

Weapons on the battlefield. Weapons that protect our skies.

New sanctions against Russia, i.e. political and economic weapons. And legal weapons – we need to work even harder to establish a tribunal for the crime of Russian aggression against Ukraine and to compensate for all the damage caused by this war at the expense of Russian assets.

Every Russian missile against our cities, every Iranian drone used by terrorists is an argument why we need more weapons. Only weapons neutralize terrorists.

And I am grateful to everyone in the world who is really fighting terror together with us.

Who is speeding up the supply of necessary defense equipment to Ukraine and who is willing to increase sanctions pressure on the terrorist state.

In particular, we are expanding our tank coalition – there is a corresponding decision of Canada, and I am grateful for it. We already have 12 countries in our tank coalition.

Today, thanks to the air defense systems provided to Ukraine and the professionalism of our warriors, we managed to shoot down most of the Russian missiles and Shaheds.

These are at least hundreds of lives saved and dozens of infrastructure facilities preserved.

And I thank our Air Forces, each and every one who last night, this morning and afternoon ensured the defense of Ukraine against terrorists’ missiles and drones.

I would like to especially praise the warriors of the 96th Kyiv, 160th Odesa and 208th Kherson anti-aircraft missile brigades.

Unfortunately, it is difficult to provide 100% protection with air defense alone. Especially when terrorists use ballistic missiles.

Today there were missile hits. Unfortunately, there are wounded and dead. My condolences to all the families and friends…

This Russian terror requires asymmetrical responses. We need a new movement of our forces at the front. We need to ensure the defeat of the terrorists’ ground forces.

Whatever the Russian occupiers are planning, our preparation must be stronger.

We talk about it with our partners. And we discuss it at the meetings of the Staff.

Today was just such a meeting.

Details about the situation in the Donetsk region. Bakhmut, Vuhledar and the battle for Donbas in general.

I am grateful to all our units who demonstrate the resilience Ukraine needs, exhausting the occupier and destroying it.

The more Russia loses in this battle for Donbas, the less its overall potential will be.

At the meeting of the Staff we also discussed in detail what we should prepare for in the coming months. We know what the occupiers are planning. We are countering it.

This applies both to the supply of weapons and ammunition and to the overall strengthening of our defense forces.

Today, I held operational meetings on the situation in the energy sector – on existing deficits and recovery from terrorist attacks. Repair crews are working in all locations of the hits.

As of now, there are electricity supply restrictions in most of our regions. The most difficult situation is in Odesa, Lviv, Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Sumy and Poltava regions.

Power engineers, utility workers and everyone involved in stabilizing the energy system will do everything necessary to restore generation and technical supply capacity. I thank everyone involved in this work.

I also thank everyone in the world who has helped and is helping Ukraine with energy equipment. To every country, every company and every person – to those millions of our friends who, through United24 or other support tools, prove that Russian terror must lose.

And one more thing.

Unfortunately, I have to repeat this for those who did not hear it well.

Any trip abroad by government officials, MPs, representatives of local authorities and other persons authorized to perform the functions of the state or local self-government, any of their trips abroad must comply with the relevant decision of the National Security and Defense Council, which you have all seen.

There will be no other trips abroad by officials or MPs in wartime.

I think this is fair.

I thank everyone who is fighting for Ukraine! I thank everyone who is working for our country and society!

Eternal memory to everyone whose life was taken by Russian terrorists!

Russia will be held accountable for terror.

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Soledar and Bakhmut:

Kyiv:

Kherson, details from Ukrinform:

Russian invaders shelled the Kherson region 36 times on January 25, killing two civilians and wounding five others.

That’s according to the Kherson Regional Military Administration, Ukrinform reports.

“In the past 24 hours, the Russian army killed two civilians. Five people were injured,” the report said.

According to the report, the Russian invaders used artillery, MLRS, mortars, and tanks. They also launched a missile attack against the region.

The Russian army shelled the city of Kherson five times, targeting residential areas of the city. Enemy projectiles hit the houses of Kherson residents.

Earlier reports said that Russian forces had hit the Turkish-owned ship Tuzla at the port of Kherson.

Tanks! Politico has the details:

The U.S. is planning to send Kyiv the Abrams main battle tank in its more advanced M1A2 configuration, rather than the older A1 version that the military has in storage, according to three people with knowledge of the deliberations.

But the 31 tanks slated for Ukraine will not include the secret armor mix that makes the Army’s newest version so lethal, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive conversations.

The A2 version has more sophisticated optics and controls than the older A1 version, which the Army intends to retire in the next few years. Outwardly similar to the A1, the A2 has a redesigned commander’s weapon station with improved optics for targeting, and an independent thermal viewer that allows the commander to independently scan for targets in all weather and battlefield conditions.

The most radical changes are on the inside, which has been redesigned to take advantage of new technology. The control mechanisms are digitized, most notably a new inter-vehicle information system that allows vehicles to exchange information continuously and automatically. Using the new technology, commanders can rapidly track the location of friendly vehicles, identify enemy positions and process artillery requests.

But federal policy forbids the export of Abrams with classified armor packages used by the U.S. military, which includes depleted uranium, according to a fourth person with knowledge of the policy. The U.S. strips the vehicles of this secret armor “recipe” before selling them to other countries. There are other armor packages the U.S. can provide for foreign military sales customers.

Norway:

The US Departments of State and Treasury have designated Wagner PMC a transnational criminal organization and leveled added sanctions on Prigozhin. Here’s the transcript of Secretary Blinken’s remarks:

Countering the Wagner Group and Degrading Russia’s War Efforts in Ukraine
PRESS STATEMENT

ANTONY J. BLINKEN, SECRETARY OF STATE

JANUARY 26, 2023

The United States is sanctioning individuals and entities linked to Russia’s para-military Wagner Group and its head, Yevgeniy Prigozhin – including its key infrastructure and associated front companies, its battlefield operations in Ukraine, producers of Russia’s weapons, and those administering Russia-occupied areas of Ukraine. This action supports our goal to degrade Moscow’s capacity to wage war against Ukraine, to promote accountability for those responsible for Russia’s war of aggression and associated abuses, and to place further pressure on Russia’s defense sector.

In November 2022, the Department of State designated the Wagner Group pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating in the defense and related materiel sector of the Russian economy. It was previously designated by OFAC in June 2017 under E.O. 13660 for being responsible for or complicit in, or having engaged in, directly or indirectly, actions or policies that threaten the peace, security, stability, sovereignty, or territorial integrity of Ukraine.

Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is designating the Wagner Group as a significant transnational criminal organization pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 13581, as amended by E.O. 13863. The Wagner Group’s pattern of serious criminal behavior includes violent harassment of journalists, aid workers, and members of minority groups and harassment, obstruction, and intimidation of UN peacekeepers in the Central African Republic (CAR), as well as rape and killings in Mali.

Concurrently, OFAC is designating Wagner pursuant to E.O. 13667 for being responsible for or complicit in, or having engaged in, the targeting of women, children, or any civilians through the commission of acts of violence, or abduction, forced displacement, or attacks on schools, hospitals, religious sites, or locations where civilians are seeking refuge, or through conduct that would constitute a serious abuse or violation of human rights or a violation of international humanitarian law in relation to CAR.

Further, the Department of State is designating today five entities and one individual linked to the Wagner Group and Prigozhin. These designations target a range of Wagner’s key infrastructure – including an aviation firm used by Wagner, a Wagner propaganda organization, and Wagner front companies. OFAC is also designating persons and entities based in CAR, the People’s Republic of China, Luxembourg, and the United Arab Emirates that are connected to Wagner’s operations around the world.

The Department is also designating under E.O. 14024 three individuals for their roles as heads of the Russian Federal Penitentiary Service, which has been reported to facilitate the recruitment of Russian prisoners into the Wagner Group. The Department is also designating a Deputy Prime Minister who also serves as the Minister of Industry and Trade and the Chairman of the Election Commission of the Rostov Region.

The Department is further designating under E.O. 14024 one individual and four entities associated with Russian Oligarch Vladimir Potanin, who was sanctioned pursuant to E.O. 14024 in December 2022. Similarly, the Department is designating Sergei Adonev, a financier of Russian President Putin, alongside several associated entities and individuals. The Department is also identifying two yachts and one aircraft associated with Adonev as blocked property.

Additionally, the Department is designating under E.O. 14024 Aktsionernoye Obshchestvo Dalnevostochnyy TsentrSudostroyeniya i Sudoremonta (AO DTSSS) alongside eight subsidiaries. AO DTSSS and its subsidiaries are known for building and servicing Russia’s military, including its Pacific Fleet.

Finally, the Department is announcing steps to impose visa restrictions on 531 members of the Russian military for actions that threaten or violate the sovereignty, territorial integrity, or political independence of Ukraine pursuant to Section 212(a)(3)(C) of the Immigration and Nationality Act.

These actions also advance President Biden’s plan to promote accountability for conflict-related sexual violence, which calls for federal agencies to leverage existing sanctions authorities to pursue its perpetrators.

The United States is steadfast in our resolve against Russia’s aggression and other destabilizing behavior worldwide. Today’s designations will further impede the Kremlin’s ability to arm its war-machine that is engaged in a war of aggression against Ukraine, and which has caused unconscionable death and destruction.

For more information on today’s action, please see the Department of State’s fact sheet, the Department of the Treasury’s press release, and the White House Presidential Memorandum.

In other Wagner news, Reuters published a long form deep dive into Wagner KIAs in Ukraine:

Late last summer, a plot of land on the edge of a small farming community in southern Russia began to fill with scores of newly dug graves of fighters killed in Ukraine. The resting places were adorned with simple wooden crosses and brightly coloured wreaths that bore the insignia of Russia’s Wagner Group – a feared and secretive private army.

There were around 200 graves at the site on the outskirts of Bakinskaya village in Krasnodar region when Reuters visited in late January. The news agency matched the names of at least 39 of the dead here and at three other nearby cemeteries to Russian court records, publicly available databases and social media accounts. Reuters also spoke to family, friends and lawyers of some of the dead.

Many of the men buried at Bakinskaya were convicts who were recruited by Wagner last year after its founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, promised a pardon if prisoners survived six months at the front, this reporting showed. They included a contract killer, murderers, career criminals and people with alcohol problems.

For months, Wagner has been locked in a bloody battle of attrition to take the towns of Bakhmut and Soledar in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. Western and Ukrainian officials have said it is using convicts as cannon fodder to overwhelm Ukraine’s defences. Toughening sanctions on Wagner this month, White House national security spokesman John Kirby branded the group “a criminal organisation that is committing widespread atrocities and human rights abuses.” In a short open reply to the U.S. government, Prigozhin asked Kirby to “please clarify what crime was committed” by Wagner.

Videos and photographs of the graves first appeared on social media channels in the Krasnodar region in December. Reuters geolocated these images to the Bakinskaya cemetery and reviewed satellite imagery of the site from Maxar Technologies and Capella Space. Satellite pictures show that the Wagner plot was empty in the summer, had three rows of graves by the end of November and was three-quarters full by early January. Virtually the entire plot was used by Jan. 24.

Local activist Vitaly Votanovsky, who took the first pictures and has documented soldiers killed in Ukraine and buried in Krasnodar region graveyards, told Reuters he observed a truck delivering bodies to the cemetery. He said gravediggers told him the bodies had come from the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, close to Russia’s border with Donetsk region. When Reuters visited the cemetery in January, fences and security cameras were being installed around the plot and another burial was underway.

Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti published footage in early January of Prigozhin visiting the cemetery, crossing himself and laying flowers on one grave. He told local media that the men buried there had expressed a wish to be laid to rest at a Wagner chapel outside the nearby town of Goryachiy Klyuch, rather than having their bodies returned to relatives. The Bakinskaya plot was provided by the local authorities, he said, after the chapel ran out of space. In 2019, Reuters reported on the existence of a Wagner training camp in the village of Molkino, around 5 miles (9 km) from Bakinskaya.

Of the 39 convicts Reuters identified, 10 had been imprisoned for murder or manslaughter, 24 for robbery and two for grievous bodily harm. Other crimes included manufacturing or dealing in drugs and blackmail. Among the convicts were citizens of Ukraine, Moldova, and the Russian-backed breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia. Wooden markers on their graves at Bakinskaya and three nearby cemeteries show the men perished between July and December 2022, at the height of the battle for Bakhmut.

One of the youngest, buried at the nearby Martanskaya cemetery, is Vadim Pushnya. He was just 25 years old when he died on Nov. 19. Pushnya was imprisoned in 2020 for burgling garages, a beer shop and a cement factory in his hometown of Goryachiy Klyuch, close to the Wagner chapel. The birthdate on Pushnya’s grave matches the date given on his social media accounts and in court records.

The oldest, Fail Nabiev, was serving one-and-a-half years for burglary in Ivanovo region’s Penal Colony No. 2, 200 miles northeast of Moscow, at least his second such prison spell. He had been convicted in May 2022 by a court in the picturesque tourist town of Suzdal of stealing a string trimmer and a sanding machine valued at a total of 5,500 roubles ($80) from a garage. According to his simple wooden grave marker, emblazoned with an Islamic crescent moon, Nabiev died in October, less than five months after being sentenced. He was 60.

Much, much, much more at the link. Including imagery.

Here’s some imagery from a much larger thread:

This is an interesting thread:

2/ When asked today about the situation on the frontline, Putin said that Kyiv has created retreat-blocking detachments (заградотряды) staffed with “🇺🇦 nationalists.” According to Putin, he learned about it a week ago while meeting “our boys” (ребята). 
3/ Of course, there is no credible information about such units in 🇺🇦. Putin knows the practice from 🇷🇺 history, with Stalin’s July 1942 decree №227 being the most famous example. So was Putin consciously lying? We can’t know for sure, but it might be that he believes it. 

4/ Needless to say, Putin’s and the Kremlin’s relationship with truth is…well…complicated, to put it mildly, as my @CarnegieEndow colleague @ChristopherJBor documents in this excellent piece.

5/ But this statement by Putin sounds not as his usual lie, but as information that he’s picked up from someone he trusts. Since 2020 Putin, who had one of the worst work-from-home experiences, has developed a habit of talking to low ranked people directly involved in issues. 
6/ For example, in 2021 he claimed that, according to his conversations with people in the know, many Europeans travel to Russia to get @sputnikvaccine, and then allegedly buy fake @pfizer vaccination certificates in EU because they have more trust in 🇷🇺 vaccines 🤦‍♂️ 
7/ Today’s remark is not dissimilar, and the likely source of Putin’s knowledge are either soldiers from the frontlines in Ukraine, or so called “war correspondents” (in fact, 🇷🇺 military propagandists) whom Putin, distrustful of his generals, meets now on a regular basis. 

8/ In this piece for @CEIP_Politika Andrey Pertsev documents some of these meetings and the impact they have on Putin’s grasp of the war dynamics:

9/ This well-researched story by @WSJ (@evangershkovich, @tggrove, @drewhinshaw, @JoeWSJ) provides some additional context on Putin’s isolation and his attempts to work around the chain of command to find out “truth” from “ordinary people” on the ground:

10/ Why is this important? Because some crucial decisions the Kremlin makes about the war may be based on same quality “information” like Putin has shared today. The fact that there is no dispassionate interagency process in 🇷🇺, but an emotional and misinformed leader is chilling 
11/ This reality must feature prominently in quiet discussions that Western supporters of Ukraine have with leaders in Kyiv, as @IgnatiusPost describes in @washingtonpost based on interviews with @SecBlinken and other senior 🇺🇸 officials. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/…
12/ There is a risk of overestimating Putin’s rationality and neglecting his growing detachment from reality when trying to redraw Moscow’s red lines. So far the West managed to do it in a firm, but careful manner avoiding doomsday scenarios. END

That’s enough for today.

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

63Comments

  1. 1.

    JPL

    Adam, I’m so pleased that you update us every day, but I sure wish Putin would go away for ever and ever and a day.

  3. 3.

    Old School

    What’s that last bit of President Zelenskyy’s address about?  Are some members of the government undermining the official efforts?

  4. 4.

    Manyakitty

    That stuff about Putin is concerning. It’s one thing to be a murderous thug. It’s another to be a murderous thug who caught the whackadoodle conspiracy theory bug. Yikes.

  6. 6.

    NobodySpecial

    That Putin article has a strong whiff of “If only the Tsar knew what was happening!”

  11. 11.

    NutmegAgain

    Looking at the header (Day # 336) I am struck by the realization that you have built a terrific archive here, both in the posts and the comments. Really, there’s no retrospective substitute for building up an archive like this day by day. Not only is it a phenomenal amount of work (thanks Adam!) but whenever the Ukrainians win, and in time to come, the collection will really have something of value to offer future analysts, historians and other folk.

  12. 12.

    Kent

    @Manyakitty:That stuff about Putin is concerning. It’s one thing to be a murderous thug. It’s another to be a murderous thug who caught the whackadoodle conspiracy theory bug. Yikes.

    What is also means is that it is probably useless to try to calibrate NATO actions to whatever they think Putin might do or respond. Since he clearly doesn’t have a reality-based view of what is happening anyway.  In other words, just do the right thing and stop hand-wringing about whether Putin will view X or Y as an “escalation”

  14. 14.

    TheMightyTrowel

    The deep irony of that thread on putin is that he seems to have quite literally radicalised himself through social media like anti-vax yoga moms and conspiracy theorists worldwide, a propaganda framework he himself played a key role in seeding with disinformation – this isn’t getting high on your own supply, it’s poisoning a well and then bathing in the effluent.

  16. 16.

    Bill Arnold

    @Manyakitty:
    The two carnegieendowment.org pieces (from that thread) are useful. The first is pre-(re-)invasion. Vova is being seduced/drawing himself ever deeper into his constructed reality.
    Understanding Its Loose Relationship With the Truth (CHRISTOPHER BORT, carnegieendowment.org, JANUARY 06, 2022)

    Lord of the Masses: How Russia’s Fringe Elements Went Mainstream – Putin’s immersion in the “masses” is becoming dangerous. His vocabulary and behavior are growing increasingly marginal, and the communication style of other high-ranking officials will in turn inevitably become marginalized too. (15.11.2022, Andrey Pertsev, carnegieendowment.org)

  17. 17.

    Alison Rose

    The likely lifelong trauma and PTSD the children will face breaks my heart more than just about anything. The fact that the fetus-loving GOP doesn’t care about that and doesn’t want to help Ukraine win is…disgusting, to put it mildly.

    Hi, Adam and all. I commented on the previous thread with a life update, but will say hello again here, too.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  18. 18.

    Bill Arnold

    @Kent:

    What is also means is that it is probably useless to try to calibrate NATO actions to whatever they think Putin might do or respond. Since he clearly doesn’t have a reality-based view of what is happening anyway.

    Disagree. It is always better to have a more accurate predictive model of one’s opponents than a less accurate model. His “reality” is consistent, and is (well, appears to be) only very slowly updated.

  21. 21.

    bookworm1398

    Putin – Talking to rank and file people and not just the top guys is generally recommended as a good thing and way to find to find out what is really going on. If it’s actually making things worse that suggests pretty worrying things about Russian public opinion or Putin (what he is willing to accept or discount)

  24. 24.

    tobie

    Anyone watching Ruben Gallego on Chris Hayes tonight? He needs to work on his presentation. My husband, who’s not a political junkie, just said, “This guy is crude.” He’s tripping on his words, he’s bouncing from one theme to the next and seems to have no focus, he’s unclear. He’s not ready for prime time yet. If he doesn’t up his game fast, he will lose the election.

  27. 27.

    trollhattan

    War Zone has an article on the M1 Abrams tank, in battle, general characteristics, maintenance challenges, training, etc. I learned a lot. re. Iraq.

    Despite “the wear and tear on the tracks and turbine engines in the heat and sand, our Abrams kept going and was a dominating presence wherever we went,” he said. “One doesn’t realize how intimidating the Abrams, especially a platoon plus together, is until it is deployed and unleashed.”

    In addition, “it is relatively quiet with its 1,500hp turbine engine even in an urban environment,” Albertson said. “There was one operation on June 1st, during Operation Smackdown in Al-Kufa, where our tanks led an attack (my tank in the lead) along with our cavalry scouts, and we came around the corner to the enemy controlled terrain and 20 fighters (most with RPGs) just stood there in shock as we rounded the corner. They didn’t hear us moving through the city until it was too late and we were less than 100 yards away barreling down on their position.”

    “You can assume what happened next.”

  28. 28.

    Feathers

    @bookworm1398: The issue is that you actually have to find rank and file guys. Which means getting outside your bubble. Putin is so paranoid that he won’t do that. This means that people in his inner circle can coach fake “ordinary” people to fill his ear with whatever nonsense they want him to believe. It’s a honeypot, but with schlubby dudes instead of hot chicks. The problem is probably as old as authoritarianism itself.

  29. 29.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @tobie: I had the same thought watching him on the O’Donnell program last week. He needs to practice TeeVee. He’s on the O’Bros podcast today, but I didn’t listen to it yet. Curious to see if he does better in the different medium

  31. 31.

    HinTN

    Adam – marginally OT but perhaps of interest… In the context of the civil unrest in Iran, what do you think the information awareness of the populace is with respect to the government supplying Russia with all those weapons that are used against the Ukrainian people?

    Thanks, as always, for your work on this.

  32. 32.

    tobie

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: He may be second-guessing himself because he knows he’s running for a high office and the spotlight’s on him. I get the nervousness, which is why I’m not a politician. But he’s going to need to learn to be more confident and quicker on his feet if he wants to convince people to vote for him who don’t know him.

  34. 34.

    suzanne

    Adam, I don’t comment on these threads often, but I almost always read them. They’re greatly, greatly appreciated.

    I try to keep eyes on right-wing media so I can understand how their minds “work”. I have seen multiple pieces in the last couple of days that Ukraine is certain to lose. I suspect that’s wishful projection from the right, who I genuinely believe hates the freedom and decreasing religiosity of the US and western Europe. I would appreciate your viewpoint.

  36. 36.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Alison Rose: ​
     

    The likely lifelong trauma and PTSD the children will face breaks my heart more than just about anything. The fact that the fetus-loving GOP doesn’t care about that and doesn’t want to help Ukraine win is…disgusting, to put it mildly.

    Not to mention the many thousands of Ukrainian children that the Russians have deported to distant parts of Russia (and presumably put up for adoption).

    The whole thing is so horrible. And each one of the many horrors is enough by itself to say, this is why Russia must be defeated. Russia must not be left with any part of Ukraine that will allow them to convince themselves that they are better off for having perpetrated all these horrors, because if they come out of this war with any sort of gain at all, they will surely do it again.

  37. 37.

    suzanne

    @tobie: I’m worried about Gallego and how he comes across to people. I have seen him speak in a smaller group and he can be more relatable, but he does have that kind of rough, slightly impolite, and uncomfortable demeanor. We have one commenter who is a total Pollyanna who refuses to see that this attribute of his — which includes a lot of profanity — might be a bit of a problem.

  38. 38.

    Anoniminous

    I’m seeing reports there are 100 Leopard 2 tanks pledged to Ukraine. That’s a Brigade’s worth. Add in the other vehicles, artillery, Infantry Fighting Vehicles, & etc. being sent and Ukraine will be able to field a fully equipped WW 2 style – but not equipped – Panzergrenadier (Mechanized Infantry) division which tore the Russians into itsy-bitsy little bits in 1942 and 1943.

  39. 39.

    patrick II

    It seems macabre that Putin, who once so dominated Trump and seemed so in control, has become as functionally bug-fck nuts as his former lap dog .

  41. 41.

    tobie

    @suzanne: There’s still time for him to work on his pitch and get more focused and friendly in his presentation. And, if he doesn’t, someone else will step into the race. All this is nerve wracking given how much is on the line.

  42. 42.

    suzanne

    @tobie: He absolutely has time to improve. There’s about a 3-point GOP registration advantage there, so Dem wins require threading a bit of a needle. They require both good candidates and a streak of luck. Here’s hoping he recognizes the problems and is working on addressing them.

  48. 48.

    Suzanne

    @Geminid: You’re the Pollyanna. You have routinely made optimistic predictions in these comments that do not bear out. You also seem to think that winning an election and changing one’s well-known public image (established over years, mind you) is just a matter of a good ad and “messaging”. If it were that easy, everyone would be doing it. So I think your analysis isn’t worth much.

  49. 49.

    kalakal

    There are a lot of Leopard 2 tanks scattered around various European countries, around 2,000. They’re not all going to end up in Ukraine but that is a lot of heavy metal potentially available. I would not be at all surprised that at least some UKR tankies & mechanics have already been training on them in Poland so they may appear sooner than you’d expect from their just being made available

  51. 51.

    Suzanne

    @Geminid: “Oh, he didn’t call Ted Cruz a fucking baby killer on TV, he only did it on Twitter, where it went viral and got him national attention…..so it doesn’t count, no one’s going to think he isn’t polished and ready” is not really a position I’d stake out, myself.

    Anyway, we’ll see if he can turn it around. Fingers crossed.

  52. 52.

    Geminid

    @Suzanne: You are distorting my position. I think you resent being contradicted in an area where you consider yourself the expert, and that is why you misrepresent my comments.

    I was not going to let that  “Pollyanna” crack go unchallenged. But this is a Ukraine thread so I will drop out of this argument for now

    Although now that I see that last comment I’ll say that putting words in someone else’s mouth is a poor tecnique that tends to discredit your core argument.

  53. 53.

    Suzanne

    @Geminid: Other Arizonans, like PirateDan, have shared great insight about the mood, the challenges, and the opportunities in Arizona. It’s not about me. It’s about an accurate assessment of reality.

  57. 57.

    Carlo Graziani

    In a way we already knew about Putin’s epistemic bubble, and his capacity to lead, and to be led by, the Siloviki in self-delusion. Every act by the Russians since they were kicked out of Kherson speaks of absolute confidence that they are winning, and that the circumstances of the war create no urgency—let alone emergency—for them. Gerasimov The Incompetent taking over from Surovikin, absurdist theatre between MOD and Wagner in place of unified command, continued incompatible and mutually-non-supporting, supply-draining inconclusive offensives (Bakhmut and Donetsk): these things all tell us that the Russians have higher priorities than winning the war soon.

    At a guess, they’ve bought a theory of victory that involves pressure on Ukraine to capitulate from the missile campaign, plus irresistible mass to be brought to bear through a class of draftees who, thanks to the winter pause, will have as much as six months of training! (You are to imagine Dr. Evil biting his finger whilst declaiming “one million dollars!”). Which will allow them to reset the campaign on its foreordained course to Russian triumph.

    The fact that they had better troops in greater abundance in February 2022, under the strategic direction of the same incompetent who has now failed upward to supreme command of the war, against a far weaker opponent, with results that require recalibration of the word “dismal”, appears to faze them not at all.

    This bubble is bound to pop sooner or later. There is no evidence that I am aware of that the Russians have learned anything in 2022, least of all the correctable fatal flaws in their planning, organization, logistics, command, discipline, weapons, did I leave anything out? Oh, right, intelligence, training, combined-arms tactics, wow, the list really does go on and on! Air support, naval warfare, counterinsurgency…

    Which is to say that the Russian 2023 campaign seems likely to meet with a fiasco analogizable to an airliner crash on a train wreck in front of a flaming sharknado. But Putin thinks he’s winning. Let’s hope he is having heart trouble, because I think he has some killer shocks coming his way…

  61. 61.

    ColoradoGuy

    @Alison Rose: It took incredible courage to share your story, Alison.

    I’ve had a little taste of panic attacks, and the weird thing is you feel guilty afterward, for no good reason, as if it was your fault somehow.

    As far as I can tell, it’s a brain disorder caused by severe (and possibly not remembered) childhood trauma, and is difficult to treat.

    Please forgive yourself, if you can. It is NOT your fault.

  62. 62.

    sab

    @ColoradoGuy: My stepson has benn having anxiety attacks since he was eight. He self-medicated with drugs for years. Tore our hearts out but he was in worse pain.

    We all survived, mostly from his strength when he finally got useful trestment.

  63. 63.

    J R in WV

    @patrick II:

    It seems macabre that Putin, who once so dominated Trump and seemed so in control, has become as functionally bug-fck nuts as his former lap dog .

    The bug-fuk virus works at different speeds for different hosts. Vladimir V Putin may have had a little more resistance… or perhaps their relative ages have some influence on their gathering crazy minds. No telling for sure without an autopsy, tho.

    Remember, every accusation in these circumstances is a confession, projecting either what they have done already or what they most alwant and crave to do ASAP.

    Adam, my belated “last” compliments on your whole oeuvre on Ukrainian/RU warfare and related international political science. Thanksalso  for keeping Balloon Juice Jackals among the most informed on this situation outside that funny building with no 90° corners.

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