So we lost the House and kept the Senate, even gaining a seat in the Senate, unless the dreadful Sinema decides to switch parties now that Ruben Gallego has announced that he is running for her seat in 2024. In which case that extra Senate seat will serve us (extra) well, even beyond having given us majorities on committees.
My feeling about the House is that we fight HARD for every House special election, and hope to take back House before 2024, seat by seat by seat. For every seat we gain, that’s one fewer Republican vote the Squeaker can spare in the awful votes that will be coming up. I think we should fight HARD for every state Supreme Court seat that can give the majority to the Dems on the court. And I think we should fight HARD for any State House or State Senate seat in a key state that can either give Dems a majority or keep the Rs from having a super-majority and being able to override a veto from a Democratic governor.
So that’s where I am coming from; it will be interesting to see whether there’s agreement on that in the comments.
On Wisconsin!
We can argue about whether we should fight for every House special election, but there should be no argument about the upcoming 2023 elections in Wisconsin.
There are two critical races that are strategically significant in the battle against the right wing in Wisconsin. Winning both would go a long way to helping Democrats hope to maintain and regain power in Wisconsin.
– an open seat on the state Supreme Court, to replace a retiring conservative Justice
– an open State Senate seat, to replace a retired Republican
It’s kind of amazing, but in this historically Republican district in Wisconsin, voting in the presidential election in 2020 was very close – about 51% / 49% in favor of Trump.
In addition to everything else, both seats are key to having a firewall in place against the worst right wing nonsense in 2024 and beyond.
Teaming Up with Voces de la Frontera
I have been talking with our friends at Voces de la Frontera, and we are going to write postcards for these two races. Lots of details to come in a post in the next day or two, but the short story is that they are sharing addresses with us, and we will be writing postcards to Latino and African American voters in Wisconsin who have a Democratic “partisanship” score of 80-100%. I hope there’s interest because I think we can make a difference in these two hugely important elections.
Read on for some great details about these races from one of our Wisconsin peeps on Balloon Juice, Mousebumples.
The Supreme Court race is a battle for the majority on the Court.
Judges on the Wisconsin Supreme Court are elected through “nonpartisan” elections to serve 10 year terms. With 7 Justices on the Court, terms are staggered so that an election happens nearly every year.
Conservative Justice Patience Roggensack is retiring, with her term set to expire later this year. Four judges (2 liberal and 2 conservative) have filed to take her open seat on the Court. In February 21 primary election, Wisconsin voters will select which 2 candidates will advance, with each voter voting for their preferred candidate.
As this is a “nonpartisan” race, voter education is key as there is no (R) or (D) next to candidate names to help voters decide who to support.
The 2 liberal candidates are Everett Mitchell and Janet Protasiewicz. The 2 conservative candidates are Jennifer Dorow (who presided over the trial and sentencing for the man behind the Waukesha Christmas parade homicide trial) and Daniel Kelly (who had been appointed to the Court by Gov. Scott Walker to fill a vacancy and lost his bid for a full term to Jill Karofsky in 2020).
While a current conservative Justice can and does swing to vote with the 3 liberals on the Court, flipping this seat is important to counteract the right wing dark money in Wisconsin and across the country. Ben Wikler, chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party called it, “The most important election nobody’s ever heard of.” Changing the composition of the Court can impact rulings on future cases regarding abortion (including related to the 1849 abortion ban that is currently in effect, since Roe v Wade was overturned), voting rights, and redistricting. (*note: the current gerrymander is unlikely to be overturned as the post-census maps have been set; however, the Justice elected in April will likely still be on the court for the next round of redistricting) Additionally, the Court rejected DJT’s claims of a rigged and stolen election in 2020. Flipping this seat will help provide a firewall against similar claims that may be made in 2024.
For reference, the next Supreme Court elections will be for the seat currently held by Ann Bradley (liberal – 2025). The subsequent 2 judicial elections are for Rebecca Bradley (conservative – 2026), and Annette Ziegler (conservative – 2027). In short, this is our last chance to flip the court’s majority until 2026.
The State Senate race is a battle to keep the Rs from a super-majority.
Alberta Darling was elected in November and announced her retirement in December. The Wisconsin State House is currently divided 64-35 towards Republicans. The Wisconsin Senate is divided 21-11 towards Republicans, with Darling’s seat currently vacant. A 2/3rds majority vote in both chambers would allow Republicans to override a veto by Democratic Governor Tony Evers. (For those not wanting to do math, that would be 66 GOP House seats or 22 GOP Senate seats). With the very gerrymandered maps in Wisconsin, the legislature is on a knife’s edge towards being able to override the veto. The current maps are unlikely to be overturned in the near future, and swinging any and all available seats towards the Democrats is important.
Additionally, impeachment is a process that allows the Wisconsin Legislature to remove any office holder in the state for specific reasons. Per state law, an individual can only be impeached for corrupt conduct in office or for the commission of a crime or misdemeanor. However, impeachment only needs a majority to pass the Assembly (which the Republicans have) and a 2/3rds majority in the Senate to vote to convict (which the Republicans would have if all Senators were present, and we’re not able to flip this seat).
The only Democrat running for this open seat is running unopposed for the primary. However, like most districts in the state, the partisanship is slanted towards the Republicans. Off-year special elections tend to be low turnout, and this is our opportunity to flip the district from Red to Blue, so when Jodi Habush Sinykin (hopefully) runs for re-election in 2024, she will have the privilege of doing so as the incumbent.
What can we do to help?
Getting out the vote is key. More details about how Juicers can help with GOTV efforts in Wisconsin will be forthcoming over the next few days, but here are a few things you can do or plan for in the meantime:
° Participate in our postcard campaign with addresses direct from Voces!
° Leverage your contacts in Wisconsin to make sure they are registered to vote and ready to vote on February 21 AND on April 4. Wisconsin allows Election Day registration if they are not already registered, and a photo ID is required. This is a great website to point them towards if they’re not sure if they’re registered, don’t know where their polling place is, etc.
° If you are local (or willing to do phone banking, etc., remotely) – check out the WisDems Volunteer Opportunities.
WaterGirl
If it turns out that Saturday afternoon is a bad time to talk politics and political action, I will re-post this later.
Leslie
Excellent! My postcards and stamps finally arrived, so all I need is addresses.
Omnes Omnibus
The Democratic candidate is a good one. Jodi Habush Sinykin. She has been involved in environmental protection for years. She and her husband own a specialty textile mill that converted to making PPE for the pandemic. Special for Balloon Juice, she got anti-puppy mill legislation passed in WI and own two rescue dogs. Senator Tammy Baldwin and AG Josh Kaul are among those who have endorsed her.
Steeplejack
On, Wisconsin!
Omnes Omnibus
As far as the supreme court race goes, I am okay either of the non-partisan (but they’re fucking Democrats, okay?) candidates. I am still not sure which I will vote for in the primary. I will go door to door for who ever gets the nomination though.
AM in NC
I like this strategy, WG. We here in NC know how close state Supreme Court battles can be (sob!) and how important they are.
Also how crucial it is to deny gerrymandered, fascist, Republican (but I repeat myself) legislatures a supermajority to override a Democratic Governor’s veto. We held on to ours by one (1!) seat in November.
And yes, every special-election House seat we can pick-up is huge!
Thanks, as always for organizing the troops.
Mousebumples
@Omnes Omnibus: I am not a legal expert, but I’m leaning towards Janet for the primary.
And I might borrow our postcard messaging to mail postcards to my friends and family (or hand deliver, lol) since my in laws have already told me just to tell them who to vote for.
I’ll try to keep an eye on this thread, but I’ve got a baby with conjunctivitis, so my attention may be intermittent. I’ll definitely check back after bedtimes in a few hours, though.
Omnes Omnibus
@Mousebumples: I think Janet Protasiewicz is probably the more “electable” one, but Everett Mitchell appeals more to me as lawyer. Janet comes from a more typical prosecutor’s background and that sells well, but I am just preternaturally anti-prosecutor. Mitchell does drug courts in the juvenile system which I think gives him as different viewpoint.
Edited
Mousebumples
@Omnes Omnibus: fair enough, and I can totally buy that. I like the idea of adding a Black jurist, too, but unless both manage to advance to the April election, I’m going for electability. Either progressive would be better than either of the conservatives.
And I’ll have to work on practicing how to pronounce her last name – like I did for “Mayor Pete”.
Per Twitter –
There is a video if anyone wants to click through (or if a front pager wants to embed).
raven
So weird, I’m watching the Illinois Wisconsin game and checked BJ at the half. I couldn’t believe WG was posting about the hoops!!!
raven
@Omnes Omnibus: Have I asked you if you know my friends, one of whom teaches law here at UGA, and her hubby who was deeply involved in progressive polices in Wisconsin?
Omnes Omnibus
@Mousebumples: Like I said, I am not sure for whom I will vote. Both are good candidates.
Bill K
I wish one of the liberal candidates would drop out. I think Janet P is more electable even though I favor Mitchell. But if we have all the liberals vote for one while the Repubs split between their two it would simplify things.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: The female Dem candidate has raised 10x the money the male Dem candidate.
I wish Dems would get behind one candidate. I worry that all 4 will end up with ~25% and then the race will be determined by tiny little differences.
Omnes Omnibus
@raven: No, you haven’t. But I was also away from WI for most of the period from 1988 to 2008 I visited and had family, but I wasn’t around all the time.
raven
Got it.
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: As Mousebumples and I were saying, Janet is probably the more electable.
ETA: I think a four way split is unlikely. Janet will probably get in on our side and I am not sure how the nutcases will vote. I wouldn’t be surprised if the two conservatives come in second and third, but are very close together.
WaterGirl
@Mousebumples:
WaterGirl
@raven: I laughed. I think that’s the second time I have (inadvertently) done that to you in the past week or so.
edit: Plus, I would side with Illinois.
raven
@WaterGirl: Oskee-wow-wow!
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl:
You would be wrong.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: Illinois is my Alma Mater!
wmd
All good ideas.
Outside of the Wisconsin discussion, I was thinking a deep dive on likely state demographic changes would be interesting – it’s noisy because of migration. But the idea is to simulate what the potential electorate will look like in 2024, 2026, 2028 and 2030. Age, sex, race, education, trendlines for turnout.I’ve had a hobby horse on state house elections in decennial census years, as in most state those legislatures will be drawing district maps. Getting and updating this data is a project worth doing. I can commit to gathering the data into a spreadsheet for a few states. But really this looks like a good idea for an academic paper with graduate students doing the stats.
oldgold
@WaterGirl: As someone with an interest in the Land of Lincoln, you might be interested in reading this essay written by David Foster Wallace concerning the Illinois State Fair. It is well written and insightful.
https://harpers.org/wp-content/uploads/HarpersMagazine-1994-07-0001729.pdf
WaterGirl
@oldgold: I have been to the IL state fair. I have seen the butter pig. After that, all else pales.
James E Powell
@oldgold:
David Foster Wallace’s non-fiction essays were his best work.
ceece
I am finishing a pile of cards for VA-04 (US house seat currently open since Rep. McEachin passed away in November) , but after that I could write for Wisconsin. What would be the mailing deadline? How do we get addresses?
thanks!
raven
@James E Powell: He coached tennis in a program I ran at the Urbana Park District.
WaterGirl
@ceece: Great! Details being worked out now, I should have a post up by sometime on Monday.
New Deal democrat
100% agree. With any luck, there is a D House and a D Speaker by the time there has to be a vote on the debt ceiling.
sab
@Omnes Omnibus: My grandmother was from Wisconsin. Her grandparents fled Ireland slightly pre-Famine. Not nostalgic about the old country. Felt relieved to have escaped alive. Her uncle was a Progressive Republican governor. Seriously, he was. Francis McGovern. Progressive and Republican.
Grandma was First Lady during his administration while she was in college because he was not married due to his lifelong affection for an unhappily married lady.
Grandma and her sister were complete bitches about him and her.
My grandmother’s big sister stayed in Wisconsin, and her children are lawyers and Democratic activists. Grandma would have been horrified. We are proud, and sorry the family hasn’t been closer.
Yutsano
@New Deal democrat: We won’t get THAT lucky, but if a few seats open up in gettable districts we should aim for whatever we can get.
hells littlest angel
This should be the aim of every Democrat everywhere.
sab
@sab: I think ” her children” were actually grandchildren.
Comfort to my mother as we all went more diverse. Chinese Americans, Mexican Americans, Black Americans. Mom couldn’t accept until grandchildren , then she went nuts on family.
That is how this diversity stuff is supposed to work. Grandkids are family.
James E Powell
@New Deal democrat:
I have advocated making little dolls of purple district Rs & sticking pins in them, but no one takes me seriously. I mean, could it hurt?
Another Scott
@wmd: Understanding the electorate at the where the voters are level is important. Thanks for stepping up.
Too much of the political reporting is numbers based, and too much of it isn’t actually useful information. Numbers sound objective, but especially in politics, they really aren’t – they’re slanted to tell a story.
One of dsquaredigest’s One Minute MBA rules that I’ve harped-on more than once is “the vital importance of audit”.
I would like to know what happened to the predictions of, e.g, Florida’s vote being affected by people having to leave Puerto Rico because of the hurricane damage. Did they not vote? Were there too few of them to affect any of the races we cared about? Was it all wishful thinking??
Yes, having the accurate numbers is important and a worthwhile thing! But politics is complicated. Voting is complicated, especially when one political party insists on making it so. We need to know how the results compare to the expectations created from the pre-election data and why they are different (when they are), and what the results mean for the next time (what is the best way to drive out our voters and disillusion the GQPers so that they stay home or vote for our gals instead?).
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
StringOnAStick
I’ve just received 200 postcards and have the stamps, so I’m ready to go as soon as we can get addresses to work with. It is criminal how WI has been gerrymandered to favor the R’s to such an extreme.
SuzieC
@ceece: I can also write. Need approved message and addresses.
jnfr
I think this is a really sound strategic plan. I’d love to see McCarthy choking on his own caucus even before 2024.
H.E.Wolf
Three cheers for this program!
Yay for the FIGHT HARD game plan.
Yay for writing postcards for WI.
Yay for people who will put down the voodoo pin and take up the postcard pen. :)
ceece
oh, there’s no reason we can’t have postcard pens AND voodoo pins……
Omnes Omnibus
@ceece:
This has always be a “both … and” blog.