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You are here: Home / 2024 Elections / ‘Actuarial Arbitrage’ (Open Thread)

‘Actuarial Arbitrage’ (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  January 30, 202312:05 pm| 135 Comments

This post is in: 2024 Elections, Open Threads

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A pathological liar told the truth for once over the weekend:

CNN — Former President Donald Trump took aim at Ron DeSantis Saturday, claiming the Florida governor and his team are “trying to rewrite history” regarding their Covid-19 pandemic response, and called the potential presidential run by his GOP rival “very disloyal.”

“There are Republican governors that did not close their states,” Trump told reporters while aboard his plane. “Florida was closed for a long period of time…”

“I had governors that decided not to close a thing and that was up to them,” he said. The former president also took aim at DeSantis’ shifting posture on vaccines, saying the Florida governor had “changed his tune a lot.”

The orange fart cloud is correct. DeSantis was slow to act as the virus spread initially, probably because he was weighing the factor that matters most to him, i.e., how closures would affect him politically. But eventually, bars were shut down and public gatherings limited for months by state order. When the politics shifted, so did DeSantis, lifting restrictions earlier than recommended.

DeSantis also used to urge people to get vaccinated and deployed then-scarce doses to wealthy enclaves (gift link) where his donors live until he figured out anti-vaccine demagoguery was popular with the base. Now he and the crackpot surgeon general he appointed are lying about vaccine safety and blathering all the time about the “free state of Florida,” as if the shutdowns never happened.

That same CNN article says Trump claimed Nikki Haley called him recently to let him know she’s thinking about launching a 2024 presidential campaign. Oddly, he does not seem to find that disloyal, though he gets a self-aggrandizing dig in:

“I talked to her for a little while, I said, ‘Look, you know, go by your heart if you want to run,’” Trump said. “She’s publicly said that ‘I would never run against my president, he was a great president.’”

Trump said he told Haley that she “should do it.”

Has any flip-flopper flipped more than Haley has flipped on Trump? What a weathercock she is on the subject, and it’s weird that she gets a pass. Maybe they’re in cahoots and Trump promised he’d pick her for VP if he gets the nomination. Or maybe he just doesn’t see Haley as a threat.

Or maybe Haley is among the Republicans hoping for a deus ex machina, perhaps in the form of “actuarial arbitrage,” i.e., Trump shuffling off this mortal coil and joining the bleedin’ choir invisible. There are scads of Republicans in that group according to reporting by McCay Coppins in The Atlantic:

This magical thinking pervaded my recent conversations with more than a dozen current and former elected GOP officials and party strategists. Faced with the prospect of another election cycle dominated by Trump and uncertain that he can actually be beaten in the primaries, many Republicans are quietly rooting for something to happen that will make him go away. And they would strongly prefer not to make it happen themselves…

Their rationale was straightforward: The former president is 76 years old, overweight, appears to maintain the diet of a college freshman, and believes, contrary to all known science, that exercise is bad for you. Why risk alienating his supporters when nature will take its course sooner or later? Peter Meijer, a former Republican representative who left office this month, termed this strategy actuarial arbitrage.

“You have a lot of folks who are just wishing for [Trump’s] mortal demise,” Meijer told me. “I want to be clear: I’m not in that camp. But I’ve heard from a lot of people who will go onstage and put on the red hat, and then give me a call the next day and say, ‘I can’t wait until this guy dies.’ And it’s like, Good Lord.” (Trump’s mother died at 88 and his father at 93, so this strategy isn’t exactly foolproof.)

I despise that fucker so much I keep a bottle of champagne chilled so I’ll be prepared to celebrate when the news that he has taken a dirt nap reaches me. But this Atlantic piece makes me hope the odious pustule lives longer than a giant sequoia. I know life isn’t fair, but goddamn it, just as a practical matter, a party that puts a malicious, incompetent, narcissistic boob like Trump in charge should fail. May he live to see the day.

Open thread.

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Reader Interactions

135Comments

  1. 1.

    bbleh

    January 30, 2023 at 12:08 pm

    When it comes to Republicans, I root for injuries!

  2. 2.

    brantl

    January 30, 2023 at 12:14 pm

    I want Trump to spend as much time as possible in a cell. I wish there was a way to de-frock him of the presidency, but the ReF*cks lost us that.

  3. 3.

    Origuy

    January 30, 2023 at 12:18 pm

    Click through to the BBC article to see the stunning gold and garnet necklace.

    Last month, archaeologists from @MOLArchaeology found an incredible early medieval necklace.

    Now more high status finds are being uncovered as part of the Harpole Treasure. Including this beautiful silver cross!https://t.co/3aOjCnas58#archaeology
    — DigVentures Archaeology (@TheDigVenturers) January 30, 2023

  4. 4.

    Cameron

    January 30, 2023 at 12:19 pm

    @brantl: Naw, dude needs fresh air.  Put him in an orange jump suit and stick him out there with the rest of the crew cleaning up shit by the highway.

  5. 5.

    MisterDancer

    January 30, 2023 at 12:20 pm

    this Atlantic piece makes me hope the odious pustule lives longer than a giant sequoia.

    I know why I want him to live. One reason is simple — the idea that someone will just “step in” is, I suspect a bit off the mark. There are too many people beholden to too many conspiracies — and the attention those get them — to ever let go of something as juicy as Trump’s passing.

    We thought the situation around that poor football player was bad? Trump dying would be a Texas Flood of crackpottery and chaos. I don’t even want to think about how much damage it could do to healthy advocacy systems already over-run with this muck, not to mention further empowering those who embrace it.

    It sucks, but there it is.

  6. 6.

    Cameron

    January 30, 2023 at 12:24 pm

    I’m flabbergasted that Trump denounces DeSantis for disloyalty.  Mr. President – I ask you, sir, with tears in my eyes – what more do you want from this man?  He played a stupid, dangerous, expensive and illegal trick with immigrants – check!  He denounces wokeness/BlackLivesMatter/antifa/liberals and even mounts his own witch hunts against them – check!  He even salutes you by using your very own accordion-hands gesture when he speaks! I ask again, what more can he do?

    Of course, he could announce he’s not running for President…..

  7. 7.

    Edmund Dantes

    January 30, 2023 at 12:28 pm

    And this is why trump is the nominee barring his death.

    GOP are still waiting for someone else to get their hands dirty cause they want to inherit the “Trump” voters.

  8. 8.

    cmorenc

    January 30, 2023 at 12:29 pm

    Actually, it may be in our cynical best interests for Trump to stay alive and just healthy enough to parade noisily across the 2024 election cycle like a mad elephant, trashing DeSantis.  And then he can drop dead sometime over the summer of 2025 on a sweltering hot day at the 14th hole of one of his golf courses.

    I know several BJers have projected that DeSantis won’t play anywhere near so well with the national electorate as he has in Florida, but recall that barely a month out of the 2016 election, Trump seemed to be such a damaged candidate outside the hard-core GOP base that his chances seemed very unlikely (even many hard-core GOPers were nervous about him tanking badly at that point).  Yeah, so Trump got Russian help.  Even if the Russians don’t have nearly so many coordinating connections with DeSantis, think they won’t play dirty tricks to help his chances – Putin’s surely by now seeing Biden as an equally hostile to Russia’s interests as Clinton back in 2016.  And as in 2016, Putin will have assists from some useful idiots (e.g. in the press).

  9. 9.

    bbleh

    January 30, 2023 at 12:30 pm

    @Cameron: So what you’re saying is, he’s stealing everything from Trump! It’s just like he says: everyone’s out to get him!  [looks wildly from side to side]

  10. 10.

    Brachiator

    January 30, 2023 at 12:30 pm

     Former President Donald Trump took aim at Ron DeSantis Saturday, claiming the Florida governor and his team are “trying to rewrite history” regarding their Covid-19 pandemic response, and called the potential presidential run by his GOP rival “very disloyal.”

    I saw a video clip of a CNN political roundtable where they showed and talked about Trump dumping on DeSantis. As usual, Trump was twisting things to make himself look good. Nothing new here.

    But what continues to irk the crap out of me is how wistful this political roundtable was about the idea of Trump running for president again. They normalized the hell out of him. He is just Trump, doing his Trump thing, but oh, he seems so low energy and hasn’t fired up his rallies, and oh, he is letting loose with nicknames like in the old days, and oh, I remember back in 2015 when nobody took him seriously and then he surprised everybody, and oh, has his base moved on and oh, does Donald still have his mojo.

    But no discussion at all about how Trump damaged the country. No discussion at all about how Trump instigated an attempt to overthrow the government.

    You also got the idea that these people believe that if an authoritarian government took over, the media would still be allowed to prattle happy talk nonsense.

  11. 11.

    eclare

    January 30, 2023 at 12:31 pm

    I wish him a long life because you know that was not what Melanie envisaged when she married him.

    MEEOUCH!  Racist birther bitch.

  12. 12.

    jonas

    January 30, 2023 at 12:31 pm

    I can see Haley telling Trump she’s going to run, then not do it, and tell him it was because she wanted to “stay loyal” as a way of angling for a vice-presidential gig.

  13. 13.

    Amir Khalid

    January 30, 2023 at 12:32 pm

    There are definitely people who have all the bad habits and yet still live to a great age. And yes, TFG — aside from being a teetotaler — looks like he’s one of them. Despite all the griping about the slowness of the legal processes re his alleged crimes, though, I still think that’s the likeliest path to him being out of contention in 2024.

  14. 14.

    bbleh

    January 30, 2023 at 12:33 pm

    @Brachiator: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKx3JlTnHbc&t=3s

  15. 15.

    dmsilev

    January 30, 2023 at 12:33 pm

    Beyond the pining-for-the-fjords scenario, I see three options:

    • Trump wins the GOP nomination and loses the general. He’s now a four-time loser for the GOP, and even the most fervent fans are going to have a hard time ignoring the scarlet L branded on his forehead.
    • Trump loses the GOP nomination. He either runs 3rd party (unlikely) or flounces off in a huff and tries to get his followers to do likewise. Some of them listen and don’t vote or write him in or whatever. This causes the GOP to lose the general. The follow-on civil war in the GOP will be hilarious to watch.
    • Trump wins the GOP nomination and the general. World ends.

    Let’s hope for option 2.

  16. 16.

    eclare

    January 30, 2023 at 12:34 pm

    @Origuy:   Can’t wait to see once the dirt has been removed!

  17. 17.

    mrmoshpotato

    January 30, 2023 at 12:35 pm

    a party that puts a malicious, incompetent, narcissistic boob like Trump in charge should fail.

    Oh, they’ve been failing for decades.  And bravo to the guy who danced on Regean’s grave.

  18. 18.

    bjacques

    January 30, 2023 at 12:37 pm

    I like to think of Trump these days as Chairborne Toxic Event

  19. 19.

    Ken

    January 30, 2023 at 12:41 pm

    @Brachiator: You also got the idea that these people believe that if an authoritarian government took over, the media would still be allowed to prattle happy talk nonsense.

    But they would. In fact, that’s the only thing they’d be allowed to do.

  20. 20.

    mrmoshpotato

    January 30, 2023 at 12:41 pm

    @MisterDancer: Good point, but the Kremlin’s fat, orange, fascist shitstain will kick the bucket someday.  So the conspiracy crap is just waiting in the wings.

  21. 21.

    FelonyGovt

    January 30, 2023 at 12:41 pm

    I think Trump doesn’t see Haley as a threat because she’s a woman. Never underestimate his deep misogyny.

  22. 22.

    Mustang Bobby

    January 30, 2023 at 12:41 pm

    When Harry Cohn, a much-hated Hollywood producer, checked out, a huge crowd showed up at his funeral.  One onlooker expressed surprise that the event would draw such a crowd, to which someone else observed, “That’s Hollywood.  Give the people what they want, they’ll show up.”

  23. 23.

    Jeffro

    January 30, 2023 at 12:44 pm

    Betty, you keep a bottle of champagne chilled just for when he croaks too?  =)

    (I also have a t-shirt with his stupid face on it that says “DIRTY FUCKER”, which I plan on wearing while I drink the bubbly.)

    I read the crap he spews everyday on ‘truth social’ (when it gets regurgitated on Twitter) and read a day or two ago that Pompeo seems to think that the Khashoggi slaughter was perfectly fine and I wonder when some Republican candidate – ANY Republican candidate – is going to give a speech telling GOP voters that they really ought to demand better.

    But no, it’s garbage people, all the way down.

  24. 24.

    mrmoshpotato

    January 30, 2023 at 12:45 pm

    @eclare:

    I wish him a long life because you know that was not what Melanie envisaged when she married him. 

    MEEOUCH! Racist birther bitch.

    Come sit by me.

  25. 25.

    feebog

    January 30, 2023 at 12:45 pm

    That rancid slab of orange lard is going to be too busy defending himself in courtrooms to campaign in any meaningful way.  I’ll go on record right now predicting he is indicted in Fulton County in the next three months.  Once that happens it’s going to be a pile on of indictments and trials.

  26. 26.

    Sure Lurkalot

    January 30, 2023 at 12:45 pm

    @Amir Khalid: True. My dear mother had many poor habits…smoked, ate poorly, was overweight, adhered to some idea she got that exercise to the point of perspiration was unhealthy…lived to 90. Very short cancer diagnosis to her demise.

    Her major ailment was RA, which did debilitate her as she progressed through her 80’s. A bout or two of pneumonia in her 70’s was about the worst of her illnesses.

  27. 27.

    WaterGirl

    January 30, 2023 at 12:47 pm

    @eclare:

    Racist birther bitch.

    Most excellent moniker.  I think 10 out of 10 people reading that would think of her first.

  28. 28.

    mrmoshpotato

    January 30, 2023 at 12:48 pm

    @Jeffro:

    You keep a bottle of champagne chilled just for when he croaks too? =) 

    Does champagne age well?

  29. 29.

    prostratedragon

    January 30, 2023 at 12:49 pm

    Thom Hartmann(!!) has a convenient history of Barr’s coverup services for his Dons the three Presidents whom he has served, in this article.

  30. 30.

    trollhattan

    January 30, 2023 at 12:53 pm

    @Jeffro: We have two, in case of false alarm.

  31. 31.

    trollhattan

    January 30, 2023 at 12:54 pm

    @mrmoshpotato: ​Can confirm.

  32. 32.

    NorthLeft

    January 30, 2023 at 12:55 pm

    Betty, I have a bottle of vodka (Polish, not that shitty Russian stuff) in my freezer that will be used for a celebratory shot in the event of Deadbeat Donald’s deserved demise.

  33. 33.

    trollhattan

    January 30, 2023 at 12:56 pm

    @jonas: For sure it’s not going to be Pence.

    That Arizona Stepford Trixie thinks she’s got an angle on it, I’m sure.

  34. 34.

    Splitting Image

    January 30, 2023 at 12:57 pm

    I despise that fucker so much I keep a bottle of champagne chilled so I’ll be prepared to celebrate when the news that he has taken a dirt nap reaches me.

    I’m fine with him living a long time as long as I can be sure he’s suffering the entire time.

  35. 35.

    eclare

    January 30, 2023 at 12:57 pm

    @WaterGirl:   Awwww, thank you!

  36. 36.

    Brachiator

    January 30, 2023 at 12:59 pm

    @dmsilev:

    Beyond the pining-for-the-fjords scenario, I see three options:

    The GOP should disqualify Trump for being able to run for president in 2024.

    Here is one of many reasons why.

    Trump wins the GOP nomination and loses the general.

    Question. Mr. Trump if you lose the general election, will you accept the results, or will you attempt another insurrection to install yourself as president?

  37. 37.

    Cameron

    January 30, 2023 at 1:01 pm

    @feebog: And if he’s convicted, Governor DeSantis will provide a FHP escort to make sure he gets from Mar-a-Lago to the state line.

  38. 38.

    Jackie

    January 30, 2023 at 1:03 pm

    Re Nikki Haley; I read an article a few days back that TFG said Haley’s complexion was too “blotchy” to be considered for his VP. Also, I don’t think he feels threatened by her. So she has his “permission” to run.

  39. 39.

    trollhattan

    January 30, 2023 at 1:07 pm

    First Wednesday gone on Monday.

    Lisa Loring, best known for her character Wednesday Addams in the first TV adaptation of The Addams Family in the 1960s, has died at the age of 64.

    Her daughter, Vanessa Foumberg, told The Hollywood Reporter she died of a stroke caused by high blood pressure. “She went peacefully with both her daughters holding her hands,” Foumberg said.

    The actress had been on life support for three days, her friend Laurie Jacobson posted on Facebook. “She is embedded in the tapestry that is pop culture and in our hearts always as Wednesday Addams,” she said in her post.

    The Addams Family, which was the first adaptation of Charles Addams’ New Yorker cartoons, ran from 1964 to 1966 on ABC.

  40. 40.

    Yutsano

    January 30, 2023 at 1:07 pm

    Wait…

    Am I the only one thinking the Haley call never happened?

  41. 41.

    trollhattan

    January 30, 2023 at 1:09 pm

    @Jackie: Being indistinguishable from 20-pound printer bond didn’t stop Pence. “Blotchy” is new to me, I confess, but what is Trump but alternating orange and pallid?

  42. 42.

    Brachiator

    January 30, 2023 at 1:14 pm

    @Jackie:

    Re Nikki Haley; I read an article a few days back that TFG said Haley’s complexion was too “blotchy” to be considered for his VP.

    Unlike his smooth, orange glow…

  43. 43.

    UncleEbeneezer

    January 30, 2023 at 1:17 pm

    BREAKING: The Manhattan DA will present the hush money payment case to a grand jury for indictment. Two of the witnesses? DAVID PECKER and DYLAN HOWARD from the The National Enquirer.

  44. 44.

    azlib

    January 30, 2023 at 1:18 pm

    I predicted Trump would be dead within two yers of the 2020 election.  So much for that prediction.

  45. 45.

    janesays

    January 30, 2023 at 1:20 pm

    I hope the bloated tangerine lives just long enough to become the 2024 GOP presidential nominee and then lose in glorious fashion and take the rest of his party down with him, and then promptly keel over and die on January 21, 2025, after he is forced to witness Joe Biden getting sworn in for a second term after having lost to him twice.

  46. 46.

    Bill Arnold

    January 30, 2023 at 1:20 pm

    @eclare:

    I wish him a long life because you know that was not what Melanie envisaged when she married him.

    Father Fred Trump died of/after a long/slow progressive dementia.

  47. 47.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    January 30, 2023 at 1:22 pm

    @Bill Arnold: Fred made it to 95, Maryanne made it to 88

    Wikipedia lists Maryanne trump as “American Domestic Worker”

  48. 48.

    kindness

    January 30, 2023 at 1:23 pm

    The Republican House scares me.  Not so much for the new improved Benghazi!!! hearings they’ll soon roll out but the debt ceiling.  I have no doubts Republicans will allow the end date to pass without passing any bills to clear the debt ceiling.  The stock markets will crash and Republicans will (try to) blame Democrats for it.  I don’t have much faith in our MSM to tell the public the truth.  They seem to prefer to repeat Republican memes.

    As far as Trump and DeSantis’ upcoming fights….bring it on.  Couldn’t happen to two better people.  Trump can hurt DeSantis worse than any Democrat can so I’m sitting back rooting for injuries.

  49. 49.

    Snarki, child of Loki

    January 30, 2023 at 1:24 pm

    DeathSantis’s path to the Whitehouse runs over Trump’s dead body, so Trump might want to spend less time in Floriduh, lest he get turned into “gator snax”.

  50. 50.

    trollhattan

    January 30, 2023 at 1:25 pm

    @janesays: I’m still on Team Hamberder but they, frankly, are underperforming.

    “Dropping dead of undiagnosed heart disease” was a super common adult fate, when I was a kid, but Modern Medicine has really stanched that particular ending scenario. That and smoking’s fall from popularity.

    Trump’s lucky to be around in this ear.

  51. 51.

    eclare

    January 30, 2023 at 1:26 pm

    @kindness:   I am not worried about the debt ceiling, Joe and his crew have been put on notice and will have a plan.

    It took fifteen votes for the Squeaker to get elected, you think the Republican House is going to agree on anything?

  52. 52.

    Geminid

    January 30, 2023 at 1:27 pm

    Physicists would see Trump’s run for the 2024 nomination as a mundane problem: what happens when a resistable force meets several movable objects. They might suggest that political scientists simulate it on a bowling alley, with a nerf bowling ball and nerf bowling pins.

  53. 53.

    lowtechcyclist

    January 30, 2023 at 1:27 pm

    @trollhattan:

    Trump’s lucky to be around in this ear.

    Took me a minute to figure out you probably meant ‘era.’

  54. 54.

    trollhattan

    January 30, 2023 at 1:28 pm

    @Snarki, child of Loki: “Golf Course Gator chokes on large orange lump” would be the plot-twist headline.

    Maybe a team of Everglades pythons?

  55. 55.

    trollhattan

    January 30, 2023 at 1:28 pm

    @lowtechcyclist: Can’t even blame auto-complete.

  56. 56.

    lowtechcyclist

    January 30, 2023 at 1:31 pm

    @Jackie:

    Also, I don’t think he feels threatened by her. So she has his “permission” to run.

    That’s what I figure too.  I think he’s correct in not feeling threatened by her: I just don’t see who’s her base in a GOP Presidential primary.  I bet she does no better than third in SC where she was governor (if she stays in the game that long) and will be down in the white noise everywhere else.

  57. 57.

    eclare

    January 30, 2023 at 1:32 pm

    @trollhattan:   I don’t think even a Python could swallow TFG.

  58. 58.

    trollhattan

    January 30, 2023 at 1:34 pm

    @eclare: Just needs to suffocate him. How does he pry off a python with those tiny hands?

  59. 59.

    Ksmiami

    January 30, 2023 at 1:35 pm

    @kindness: Since the debt ceiling itself is a fairytale, Biden has a number of options including mining the coin, or just directing treasury to follow the Constitution.

  60. 60.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    January 30, 2023 at 1:36 pm

    @Jackie: I suspect in his lizard, amateur-pundit, I-watch-all-the-shows brain, trump is torn between “central casting” (white guy with at least grey hair) and  “They call me a racist, can you believe it, they call me a racist, I say, look at my… beautiful vice president… I call her vice president because she’s gonna be vice president, she’s already vice-president… and when they call me a racist, they’re talking about yoooooo….”

  61. 61.

    Brachiator

    January 30, 2023 at 1:36 pm

    @kindness:

     The stock markets will crash and Republicans will (try to) blame Democrats for it.

    When the sun comes up in the morning, the GOP tries to blame the Democrats for it.

    Even allowing for the craven media, the GOP have always lost when they tried to shut down the government.

  62. 62.

    UncleEbeneezer

    January 30, 2023 at 1:37 pm

    If Bragg does end up indicting Trump (which looks increasingly likely), there’s a whole bunch of people who are gonna owe him an apology, but of course, never will.

  63. 63.

    Betty Cracker

    January 30, 2023 at 1:37 pm

    @trollhattan: How about this:

    PARTIALLY DIGESTED 14-FOOT GATOR FOUND DURING NECROPSY PERFORMED ON RECORD-BREAKING PYTHON CAPTURED IN EVERGLADES CONTAINED MASTICATED REMAINS OF MISSING 45TH POTUS

  64. 64.

    Cameron

    January 30, 2023 at 1:38 pm

    @trollhattan: Sounds like a Creamsicle.

  65. 65.

    Elizabelle

    January 30, 2023 at 1:38 pm

    @Edmund Dantes:

    And this is why trump is the nominee barring his death

    I want you to make a huge contribution to a charity of your choice, once you are proven wrong.  Why do you subject us to this shitposting?

    It does not make you sound smart or prescient, if that is what you are going for.

    Personally, I think TFG is going to be dealing with legal charges up the wazoo.  He is in the sights of too many good prosecutors (federal and state), and he has done a lot of criming and lying.   I hope his health holds out long enough to be dealt some serious justice.  No pulling a Ken Lay on us!!

    #Sick of the fucking cynics and Eeyores.

  66. 66.

    Elizabelle

    January 30, 2023 at 1:39 pm

    @Betty Cracker:  Carl Hiaasen almost got there first.

    Ssssssssss.

  67. 67.

    Mike in NC

    January 30, 2023 at 1:40 pm

    Maybe they’re in cahoots and Trump promised he’d pick her for VP if he gets the nomination. Or maybe he just doesn’t see Haley as a threat.

    Trump specifically mentioned that he wasn’t happy with Nikki Haley’s “complexion”, or words to that effect. She herself prefers people to think of her background as Cherokee, and is a terrible person any way you look at it.

  68. 68.

    eclare

    January 30, 2023 at 1:41 pm

    @trollhattan:   Also snakes have abs of steel, unlike TFG (I used to volunteer at a zoo).

  69. 69.

    Betty Cracker

    January 30, 2023 at 1:43 pm

    @UncleEbeneezer: Didn’t at least one and possibly two people on Bragg’s team quit and publicly say they resigned because Bragg wouldn’t indict Trump?

  70. 70.

    Betsy

    January 30, 2023 at 1:44 pm

    @brantl:

    @bbleh:

    As the savants say these days, Why not both?

    I’d be thrilled to see Orangemandias die slowly from cancer in prison.

    And until one or more of those three things happen, I’m happy to watch the GrOPe Party tear itself apart.

  71. 71.

    eclare

    January 30, 2023 at 1:44 pm

    @Betty Cracker:   That sounds familiar to me too.  The people on my teevee all have their bets on GA.

  72. 72.

    The Thin Black Duke

    January 30, 2023 at 1:44 pm

    If/When Trump and DeSantis face off in the primaries, I believe that DeSantis will crash and burn. Remember how DeSantis became a deer frozen by the headlights of an incoming car when Charlie Crist asked a question that he wasn’t ready for? Trump will eat DeSantis alive.

  73. 73.

    Betsy

    January 30, 2023 at 1:46 pm

    @Mike in NC: Wtf? I thought she was partly “Indian” in her heritage as in “of the Indian subcontinent.”

  74. 74.

    Elizabelle

    January 30, 2023 at 1:46 pm

    @Betty Cracker:  Yes. Almost a year ago.  I don’t understand what has been taking Bragg so long.  CNN from March 2022:

    Two top prosecutors leading the criminal investigation into former President Donald Trump and his business resigned after the Manhattan district attorney said he was not prepared to authorize an indictment against the former President, a person familiar with the investigation said.

    Carey Dunne and Mark Pomerantz, two senior prosecutors on the team, resigned last month – one day after Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg informed them that he wasn’t prepared to move forward with criminal charges. The resignations followed weeks of internal debate and discussion over the strength of the evidence against Trump and whether it could pass the hurdle of proving a crime.

    Prosecutors have been investigating Trump and the Trump Organization and whether they misled lenders, insurers, and others by providing them false or misleading financial statements about the value of properties.

    The abrupt resignations last month of the top prosecutors has cast the future of the investigation into doubt as a special grand jury convened last year is set to expire at the end of April.

  75. 75.

    Betsy

    January 30, 2023 at 1:47 pm

    @The Thin Black Duke: I can’t wait!  Fingers crossed.

    Oh, let it happen, let it happen.

  76. 76.

    schrodingers_cat

    January 30, 2023 at 1:47 pm

    @Betsy: Here parents are Sikh and came to the US as grad students or faculty members IIRC.

  77. 77.

    Betsy

    January 30, 2023 at 1:51 pm

    @Brachiator: I’m looking forward to Wednesday, when our Kevin thinks he’s going over to the White House  to “negotiate” the debt ceiling with our President.

    With Joe Biden.  Veteran of decades in the Senate.

    Joe, the very twinkle of whose  eye means integrity and savvy.

    I just chuckle every time I think about it.

  78. 78.

    Matt McIrvin

    January 30, 2023 at 1:51 pm

    The chance of Trump becoming President again is high enough (maybe even over 50%) that I don’t particularly wish him well. But the economy with which he can tear down other Republican assholes in service to his own monstrous ego is amazing, always has been.

    His complaints about DeSantis’s disloyalty are hilarious–of course with Trump loyalty only really goes one way; he’ll be your buddy for exactly the amount of time that it serves his purposes. Maybe if you’re the vile, murderous dictator of another country he’ll have some genuine affection.

  79. 79.

    Citizen Alan

    January 30, 2023 at 1:52 pm

    @Brachiator:  Um, they would! Nearly every major media outlet conducts itself like the state media organ of a fascist dictatorship right now!

  80. 80.

    Dorothy A. Winsor

    January 30, 2023 at 1:53 pm

    @trollhattan: Maybe blotchy is the new blah?

  81. 81.

    eclare

    January 30, 2023 at 1:53 pm

    @Betsy:   I might even cackle.

  82. 82.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    January 30, 2023 at 1:53 pm

    @UncleEbeneezer:

    If Bragg does end up indicting Trump (which looks increasingly likely),

    Is there news?

  83. 83.

    Cameron

    January 30, 2023 at 1:53 pm

    @The Thin Black Duke: Agree.  While DeSantis is every bit as dishonest as Trump, he’s not nearly as fluent in Spontaneous Mendacity.

  84. 84.

    Matt McIrvin

    January 30, 2023 at 1:54 pm

    @trollhattan:

    “Dropping dead of undiagnosed heart disease” was a super common adult fate, when I was a kid, but Modern Medicine has really stanched that particular ending scenario.

    COVID brought it back. Sudden unexplained strokes too.

  85. 85.

    Geminid

    January 30, 2023 at 1:55 pm

    @Elizabelle: I think this would be a different set of charges for a different crime.

  86. 86.

    Elizabelle

    January 30, 2023 at 1:56 pm

    Really interesting update on what resigned NYC prosecutors Carey Dunne and Mark Pomerantz are up to.  We might want to send some $$$ their way, to their new nonprofit.  From which neither will draw a salary.  People to watch; they are doing some vitally important work, and know their ways around a courtroom.

    From January 11, 2023, FTF NY Times gift link:
    Lawyers Who Investigated Trump Start Firm to Combat Threats to Democracy

    Last year, Mark F. Pomerantz and Carey R. Dunne were leading the Manhattan district attorney’s investigation into Donald J. Trump’s business practices.

    Now, they have turned their attention to a broader phenomenon that they say the former president represents: threats to democracy in the United States.
    Mr. Pomerantz and Mr. Dunne, who resigned last year when the district attorney decided not to seek an indictment of Mr. Trump, said they have formed a pro bono law firm that aims to stem the tide of anti-democratic policies proliferating around the country. The firm — the Free and Fair Litigation Group, which opens its doors this week — is also led by Michele A. Roberts, the former head of the union that represents professional basketball players.

    All three founders have extensive experience as litigators, and they plan to defend policies they see as just and bring lawsuits challenging those they believe are undemocratic, the three founding partners said in an interview. Their work will initially focus on voting rights, gun control and free speech.

    …. The three founders will take no salary, and the firm will do all its work for free. They expect to hire a small staff of lawyers — no more than eight employees, including one who recently served as a federal prosecutor — and partner with a number of larger law firms. The firm, a nonprofit, will solicit outside donations from foundations and small donors alike.

    ….  While the new law firm currently has no plans to take on Mr. Trump directly, its mission was in some sense inspired by his influence over the Republican Party and the Supreme Court, to which he appointed three conservative justices.

    “Trump is obviously the poster boy for increased authoritarianism,” said Mr. Pomerantz, who has written a book about his time investigating Mr. Trump that Simon & Schuster announced on Wednesday would be published in February. “He personifies the problem, but he’s far from the only manifestation of the problem.”

    … The firm’s first case involves gun control policies under attack in the wake of the Supreme Court’s ruling last year expanding the right to carry firearms outside the home. The firm is defending four Colorado towns, each with bans on carrying assault weapons in public, that were sued by a gun rights group after the court’s decision. The case is scheduled to go to trial this fall.

    … The firm is also developing plans to challenge Florida’s arrest of a number of people with criminal histories who were able to register to vote in the 2020 election even though their past convictions should have barred them from doing so. Although criminal charges against some of those people have been dismissed, the firm is researching the possibility of suing the state for having violated the Voting Rights Act, arguing that the arrests discourage legal voting by people with criminal convictions.

  87. 87.

    UncleEbeneezer

    January 30, 2023 at 1:56 pm

    @Elizabelle: Listen to one of the recent Legal AF episodes.  Both Michael Popok and former prosecutor Karen Friedman Agnifilio explain that Bragg has really been unfairly bashed for what is common-sense diligence that Bragg has followed.

  88. 88.

    Matt McIrvin

    January 30, 2023 at 1:57 pm

    @Brachiator:

    You also got the idea that these people believe that if an authoritarian government took over, the media would still be allowed to prattle happy talk nonsense.

    As long as they parroted the maximum leader’s line, I don’t see why not.

  89. 89.

    Elizabelle

    January 30, 2023 at 2:00 pm

    @Geminid:  Yeah, this one circles back to the Stormy Daniels case, sounds like.

    And it is a fresh grand jury.  The previous one may have expired last April.

    I wish Godspeed to everyone prosecuting TFG and his allies;  insurrectionists, grifters, and the usual sociopaths.  And please a good thwack at Fox News and all the lying rightwing media.  They are tearing this country, and the world, apart.

  90. 90.

    Elizabelle

    January 30, 2023 at 2:02 pm

    @UncleEbeneezer:   Thank you.  Good to know.

    Perhaps Bragg is extra careful at not missing, when coming at  the King Humpty Trumpty.

  91. 91.

    David 🌈☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch

    January 30, 2023 at 2:04 pm

    Nicki Haley even flip floped on her name. Her real name is … [checks notes]… Nimrata Randhawa.

  92. 92.

    WaterGirl

    January 30, 2023 at 2:04 pm

    @Betty Cracker: Perhaps the political tides have turned?

  93. 93.

    Geminid

    January 30, 2023 at 2:06 pm

    @UncleEbeneezer: If I have the facts straight, some or all of the hush money came from David Intrater, who happens to have been George Santos’s biggest backer both in his campaign and his purported business. It’s a small world!

  94. 94.

    trollhattan

    January 30, 2023 at 2:08 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: Good point. Geez, given Trump [checks notes] had a serious bout of the covid, does this put me on team long-covid?

    Conflicted–nobody deserves that and yet….

  95. 95.

    trollhattan

    January 30, 2023 at 2:10 pm

    @Betty Cracker: @Cameron:

    I really like the way this is progressing. Stay in FL all summer, Donny!

  96. 96.

    Orange is the New Red

    January 30, 2023 at 2:12 pm

    When DT passes away, I think a subset of the MAGA crowd will develop a new sect of Christianity with The Orange One at the right hand of God.

  97. 97.

    UncleEbeneezer

    January 30, 2023 at 2:13 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: It confirms that Manhattan DA has multiple active investigations into crimes by Trump, and that the Stormy Daniel’s crime is proceeding to a Grand Jury.  That’s definitely news we didn’t know yesterday.

  98. 98.

    Amir Khalid

    January 30, 2023 at 2:14 pm

    @Betsy:

    Nikki Haley must be counting on Republican voters thinking that the Punjabis are a little-known Cherokee clan.

  99. 99.

    UncleEbeneezer

    January 30, 2023 at 2:19 pm

    @Elizabelle: It’s entirely possible that Bragg saw several leads that were worth pursuing, developing to get more evidence, cooperating witnesses etc., to make indictment/conviction more likely.  Remember it’s his name/reputation/career at stake here, not that of his investigator/attorney.  He also knew that because of the Statute of Limitations going on hold when Trump was outside of NY, that the real decline is May 2023.  There was no reason to rush things last year if a better case was still possible.

  100. 100.

    Brachiator

    January 30, 2023 at 2:19 pm

    @David 🌈☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch:

    Nicki Haley even flip floped on her name. Her real name is … [checks notes]… Nimrata Randhawa.

    People can change, even “Americanize” their names if they wish.

  101. 101.

    NotMax

    January 30, 2023 at 2:21 pm

    @Orange is the New Red

    with The Orange One at the right hand of God

    More likely the other way ’round.
    //

  102. 102.

    Elizabelle

    January 30, 2023 at 2:23 pm

    @UncleEbeneezer:   Good to hear.

    I tire of the Merrick Garland bashing, here and elsewhere, so I will not participate in Bragg-bashing, going forward.

    It takes time to build a solid legal case, and, sadly, TFG still has way too many resources and supporters.  Have to get it right.

  103. 103.

    Betty Cracker

    January 30, 2023 at 2:26 pm

    @UncleEbeneezer: It’s also possible Bragg was stung by the two resignations from his team and subsequent blowback, saw the accolades the GA prosecutor received for investigating Trump and decided fortune favors the bold after all. I mean, anything is possible since we’re speculating here!

  104. 104.

    Geminid

    January 30, 2023 at 2:29 pm

    @David 🌈☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch: Pennsylvania Governor Milton Shapp was another politician who changed his name, from Shapiro to Shapp.

    He did not do this with a political career in mind. Shapp graduated into the Depression with an electrical engineering degree from what is now Case Western Reserve. He was hauling coal in a dump truck when a job came through in Pennsylvania, as a salesman of electronics. Mr. Shapiro really needed to succeed and he did not want anti-Semitism to stand in the way, so he changed his name.

    After serving in the Signal Corps during the second World War, Shapp started his own very successful electronics company. He was one of John Kennedy’s early backers for President.

  105. 105.

    West of the Rockies

    January 30, 2023 at 2:29 pm

    @Orange is the New Red:

    A Canticle for Lardowitz?  A religion based solely on a partial list of rage Tweets.

  106. 106.

    lowtechcyclist

    January 30, 2023 at 2:31 pm

    @West of the Rockies:

    A religion based solely on a partial list of rage Tweets.

    Hey, every faith needs its sacred texts.  And as the Bible demonstrates, they need not be internally consistent.

  107. 107.

    Geminid

    January 30, 2023 at 2:32 pm

    @Orange is the New Red:

    “45: now he’s with Elvis.”

  108. 108.

    Mimi haha

    January 30, 2023 at 2:32 pm

    “Cherokee” is generally white people admitting they’re not as white as they look.

  109. 109.

    Geminid

    January 30, 2023 at 2:34 pm

    @UncleEbeneezer: Maybe Pecker and the other guy were not willing to cooperate until last year.

  110. 110.

    Jeffro

    January 30, 2023 at 3:07 pm

    @trollhattan: Ha!

    I thought you were going to say, “one marked ‘INDICTED’ and the other marked ‘R.I.P.’ ”  =)

  111. 111.

    JustRuss

    January 30, 2023 at 3:08 pm

    The former president….believes, contrary to all known science,….

    So many possibilities to finish that sentence.

  112. 112.

    Suzanne

    January 30, 2023 at 3:19 pm

    @Splitting Image:

    I’m fine with him living a long time as long as I can be sure he’s suffering the entire time. 

    This kind of honest schadenfreude is why I hang out here.

    GROUP HUG!!!

  113. 113.

    Elizabelle

    January 30, 2023 at 3:24 pm

    @Betty Cracker:  I think that is very possible.

    And now we know that the resigning prosecutors have gone on to found the Free and Fair Litigation Group.  Doing even more important work.  Because, despite what embarrassed Republicans might tell you, that party’s problem is bigger than Trump.

    Anyway, the winds are seeming favorable.

    So:  Fucking Chris Licht has decided to bring BOTHSIDES Bill Maher to CNN on Saturday nights.  Thankfully, 11:30 EDT; 8:30 Pacific.

    That tells us something, no?

    An LA Times story alert.  Only click if you’re a masochist.  They ask Licht about bringing on “liberal” Bill Maher.  And he also crows about making CNN more hospitable to Republicans.  Although:  they cannot expect softball interviews.  No sirree.

    CNN boss Chris Licht on restoring trust and why he deleted his Twitter account

    Licht is adding Bill Maher on Friday nights, and that may not be the only comic coming to CNN. But newsgathering is still the priority.

  114. 114.

    Msb

    January 30, 2023 at 3:28 pm

    Meijer may be using the term, but he’s also practicing it. This is the guy who stopped countering the Big Lie because his constituents didn’t like hearing that.  Completely predictably, he was primaries from the right and lost his seat.

  115. 115.

    sdhays

    January 30, 2023 at 4:01 pm

    I think Trump appreciates Nikki Haley calling him to ask for permission (even if that wasn’t what she was doing). I also agree that he doesn’t consider her a threat (there are a couple things that, hmm, just don’t make her a perfect fit for the Republican Party, although I’m sure I don’t know what those things are).

    [M]any Republicans are quietly rooting for something to happen that will make him go away. And they would strongly prefer not to make it happen themselves…

    LOL, of course they are. This has been their posture since 2015. They are too stupid, lazy, and cowardly to bother with anything else. Jeb(!) was more willing to lose the nomination than take Trump on directly, and everyone else has followed that brilliant decision making ever since.

    Keep praying, jackasses. If the COVID didn’t take him in October 2020, neither is McDonald’s before 2024.

  116. 116.

    Geminid

    January 30, 2023 at 4:13 pm

    @Msb: Once he voted to impeach Trump, Meijar was a dead duck no matter what he did. Only two of the six Republican Impeachers who ran again survived their primaries, and that was because Newhouse (WA) and Valadeo (CA) were in jungle primary states. Four others retired.

  117. 117.

    Miss Bianca

    January 30, 2023 at 4:15 pm

    @Betty Cracker:

    I mean, anything is possible since we’re speculating here!

    I usually hesitate to join the “rotating tag!” nominations, but I’ll throw this one’s hat into the ring!

  118. 118.

    Betsy

    January 30, 2023 at 4:55 pm

    @Geminid: I love it.  But perhaps too heavyweight for a realistic simulation?

  119. 119.

    Betsy

    January 30, 2023 at 4:58 pm

    @sdhays:  good analysis.  And fun to relish.

  120. 120.

    UncleEbeneezer

    January 30, 2023 at 5:12 pm

    @Geminid: Right?  Assuming that the case hasn’t changed/developed in a year (no new witnesses, documents, legal rulings, supporting or exculpatory evidence, expansion/reduction in crimes/scope, additional leads investigated etc.) is just ridiculous and honestly anyone using that as their default is probably not even worth engaging.

  121. 121.

    Anonymous At Work

    January 30, 2023 at 5:17 pm

    Nikki Haley running is good for Trump.  Trump’s worst case scenario is DeSantis running and everyone else clearing the field.  DeSantis then becomes the avatar for everyone that’s not exactly a Trump supporter.  Debates would be actual debates, rather than shout-and-insult fests.  The more candidates, the more Trump’s solid 35% of the GOP primary field can win him winner-take-all primaries.  I think Trump will also be more likely to pick a VP candidate who does dirty work for him, in shivving opponents, than he is to pick someone standing on the sideline.  Less chance the person on the sideline ever even thought about crossing Trump, after all.

  122. 122.

    lollipopguild

    January 30, 2023 at 5:55 pm

    @Mustang Bobby:  I heard  a lot showed up to verify that Cohn was dead.  When trump goes I imagine it will be a lot like the scene in Wizard of Oz where the coroner has to declare the the witch “legally” dead.

  123. 123.

    Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony

    January 30, 2023 at 6:51 pm

    I don’t want Trump dead until he has been indicted, stood trial for his crimes, been convicted, and done some time. Maybe he won’t see justice, but I still believe that would be the absolute best outcome. The Q-anon nutters will believe he is a political prisoner, but GOP voting casual Fox viewers will finally be embarrassed enough by him. They will believe he is innocent until he actually gets convicted.

  124. 124.

    tybee

    January 30, 2023 at 8:45 pm

    @Jeffro: ​

    I despise that fucker so much I keep a bottle of champagne chilled so I’ll be prepared to celebrate when the news that he has taken a dirt nap reaches me.

    me, too.

  125. 125.

    Paul in KY

    January 31, 2023 at 3:55 pm

    @Cameron: God, I would love to see that. Would probably drive anywhere within 1000 miles to actually drive by as he was doing that.

  126. 126.

    Paul in KY

    January 31, 2023 at 4:10 pm

    @cmorenc: Think Putin will try to help DeSatanis

  127. 127.

    Paul in KY

    January 31, 2023 at 4:12 pm

    @bjacques: Have seen Airborne Toxic Event. Great band.

  128. 128.

    Paul in KY

    January 31, 2023 at 4:13 pm

    @Jeffro: The band Municipal Waste has a t shirt that references Trump. God willing, I’ll be wearing it the day he croaks.

  129. 129.

    Paul in KY

    January 31, 2023 at 4:17 pm

    @Snarki, child of Loki: I think DeSatanis and his wife are not beyond gaming out how he could be…eliminated with extreme prejudice.

  130. 130.

    Paul in KY

    January 31, 2023 at 4:19 pm

    @lowtechcyclist: I think she appeals to Republican women who want to vote for a dusky person to prove they are not racist. Not sure how big a subset of GQP voters that is. Also GQP voters hailing from the subcontinent.

  131. 131.

    Paul in KY

    January 31, 2023 at 4:20 pm

    @trollhattan: If the poor python did such a great thing in removing him from life, the poor thing should be allowed to consume him, IMO.

  132. 132.

    Paul in KY

    January 31, 2023 at 4:23 pm

    @Betsy: She is, but she knows her base and figures that good ole American Indian is just a tad better than Indian Indian.

  133. 133.

    Paul in KY

    January 31, 2023 at 4:25 pm

    @Amir Khalid: She’s counting on American education!

  134. 134.

    Paul in KY

    January 31, 2023 at 4:27 pm

    @West of the Rockies: A Canticle for Liebowitz is a great book.

  135. 135.

    Paul in KY

    January 31, 2023 at 4:30 pm

    @Anonymous At Work: He want’s a simpering yes-person as his Veep. He does his own shivving. He likes shivving.

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