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“Squeaker” McCarthy

The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.

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You are here: Home / 2023 / Archives for January 2023

Archives for January 2023

‘Actuarial Arbitrage’ (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  January 30, 202312:05 pm| 135 Comments

This post is in: 2024 Elections, Open Threads

A pathological liar told the truth for once over the weekend:

CNN — Former President Donald Trump took aim at Ron DeSantis Saturday, claiming the Florida governor and his team are “trying to rewrite history” regarding their Covid-19 pandemic response, and called the potential presidential run by his GOP rival “very disloyal.”

“There are Republican governors that did not close their states,” Trump told reporters while aboard his plane. “Florida was closed for a long period of time…”

“I had governors that decided not to close a thing and that was up to them,” he said. The former president also took aim at DeSantis’ shifting posture on vaccines, saying the Florida governor had “changed his tune a lot.”

The orange fart cloud is correct. DeSantis was slow to act as the virus spread initially, probably because he was weighing the factor that matters most to him, i.e., how closures would affect him politically. But eventually, bars were shut down and public gatherings limited for months by state order. When the politics shifted, so did DeSantis, lifting restrictions earlier than recommended.

DeSantis also used to urge people to get vaccinated and deployed then-scarce doses to wealthy enclaves (gift link) where his donors live until he figured out anti-vaccine demagoguery was popular with the base. Now he and the crackpot surgeon general he appointed are lying about vaccine safety and blathering all the time about the “free state of Florida,” as if the shutdowns never happened.

That same CNN article says Trump claimed Nikki Haley called him recently to let him know she’s thinking about launching a 2024 presidential campaign. Oddly, he does not seem to find that disloyal, though he gets a self-aggrandizing dig in:

“I talked to her for a little while, I said, ‘Look, you know, go by your heart if you want to run,’” Trump said. “She’s publicly said that ‘I would never run against my president, he was a great president.’”

Trump said he told Haley that she “should do it.”

Has any flip-flopper flipped more than Haley has flipped on Trump? What a weathercock she is on the subject, and it’s weird that she gets a pass. Maybe they’re in cahoots and Trump promised he’d pick her for VP if he gets the nomination. Or maybe he just doesn’t see Haley as a threat.

Or maybe Haley is among the Republicans hoping for a deus ex machina, perhaps in the form of “actuarial arbitrage,” i.e., Trump shuffling off this mortal coil and joining the bleedin’ choir invisible. There are scads of Republicans in that group according to reporting by McCay Coppins in The Atlantic:

This magical thinking pervaded my recent conversations with more than a dozen current and former elected GOP officials and party strategists. Faced with the prospect of another election cycle dominated by Trump and uncertain that he can actually be beaten in the primaries, many Republicans are quietly rooting for something to happen that will make him go away. And they would strongly prefer not to make it happen themselves…

Their rationale was straightforward: The former president is 76 years old, overweight, appears to maintain the diet of a college freshman, and believes, contrary to all known science, that exercise is bad for you. Why risk alienating his supporters when nature will take its course sooner or later? Peter Meijer, a former Republican representative who left office this month, termed this strategy actuarial arbitrage.

“You have a lot of folks who are just wishing for [Trump’s] mortal demise,” Meijer told me. “I want to be clear: I’m not in that camp. But I’ve heard from a lot of people who will go onstage and put on the red hat, and then give me a call the next day and say, ‘I can’t wait until this guy dies.’ And it’s like, Good Lord.” (Trump’s mother died at 88 and his father at 93, so this strategy isn’t exactly foolproof.)

I despise that fucker so much I keep a bottle of champagne chilled so I’ll be prepared to celebrate when the news that he has taken a dirt nap reaches me. But this Atlantic piece makes me hope the odious pustule lives longer than a giant sequoia. I know life isn’t fair, but goddamn it, just as a practical matter, a party that puts a malicious, incompetent, narcissistic boob like Trump in charge should fail. May he live to see the day.

Open thread.

‘Actuarial Arbitrage’ (Open Thread)Post + Comments (135)

It’s A Wrap!

by WaterGirl|  January 30, 202311:00 am| 20 Comments

This post is in: Political Action, Political Fundraising, Politics, Targeted Political Fundraising Fall 2022

This is part 6 of our look back on our fundraising and GOTV efforts in 2022. 

It’s A Wrap!  The Rest of Our Candidate Fundraising.

Let’s talk about the remaining candidate-related fundraising efforts.

A bit of background

We’ve already talked about our efforts to raise money in the five critical swing states where we directed the vast majority of our efforts:  Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin.  We’ve also discussed the 19 winnable House races in purple districts covered in the previous post.

As you surely know, most of our fundraising this cycle (roughly 80%) was focused on boots on the ground organizations in critical swing states.  The comments on our “look back” fundraising threads reflect that we all seem to generally agree with the emphasis on boots on the ground, with a side order of strategic donations to candidates.  So, again, we’ve targeted traditionally overlooked races where we can make a difference, where a boost toward the end can help a candidate who is close, but struggling, and where that difference would have nationwide consequences.

This post will address the remaining fundraising – with, or course, some overlap with previous discussions.

U.S. Senate

We mostly stayed out of the big money, well-funded Senate races.  With a couple of exceptions.  Incumbent Senator Catherine Masto-Cortez in Nevada was in trouble.  And the national party appeared to be paying insufficient attention to this potential loss.  We did a flash fundraiser that quickly raised $5,963 for the Senator in the waning days of the campaign.  She won, but by only 1%.

In Georgia, we mostly focused our efforts on turnout organizations (Worker Power and Four Directions), but we also put up a thermometer for people who wanted to donate directly to the candidate for the runoff.  We raised $7,400 directly for Senator Warnock’s campaign. Did you hear that he won?

Secretaries of State

Historically, the Republicans have done local races better than we have.  This cycle, Trump supported election denying candidates in critical states, most of whom openly threatened to refuse to certify Democratic victories.  We raised $14,311, the bulk of which ($13,173) went to the critical races in Arizona and Nevada, including a flash fundraiser for Cisco Aguilar in NV.  Only one of Trump’s election-denying Secretary of State candidates – in Indiana –  survived the primaries or generals.  Thanks to those wins, no one is going to “find” a few thousand votes in AZ or NV in 2024!

Attorneys General

This is also a state-wide office with potential nation-wide importance.  AGs have the responsibility to enforce various laws, including election-related legislation and legislative assaults on reproductive freedom.  Plus, Republican AGs routinely join together to prosecute regressive and harmful litigation on environmental issues, Obamacare, voting rights, etc.  We raised $12,135 for AGs in four of our five target states: NV, GA, WI and AZ (the Michigan AG was in no real danger).

We also included Texas AG candidate Rochelle Garza in the thermometer.  This was an investment in a promising future candidate – and someone who was giving the odious Ken Paxton a run for his money.  Our candidates in AZ, NV and WI won.  In Arizona in particular, AG Kris Mayes won by the narrowest of margins.  Our $5,054 directed her way had to have helped!

Governors

We largely stayed out of the Governor’s races, even in our five targeted states.  Still, we raised $25,820 for the Governors.  We did a flash-fundraiser for Charlie Crist in Florida that raised over $9,000.  At the time, he had just won the primary, and we thought a boost right out of the gate might give him a fighting chance against DeSatan.  Alas, Democratic turnout ultimately cratered in Florida, especially among the young (a drop of 38% from the last midterm).  But I don’t think any of us felt we could stand by and let DeSantis coast to victory without at least trying to cut into his margins.  No regrets.

We also did a flash-fundraiser for Maine Governor Janet Mills.   Janet wasn’t on our watchlist until MomSense alerted us to a last-minute dark money dump by the Republicans, who used that money to spread vicious lies about Mills.  We raised over $8,000 for her in just a few hours.  She won.  She won by a big enough margin that she likely would have won without that.  I like to think that we made a difference anyway, because in those first few hours of grave worry that the hideous attacks with dark money might derail her chances, they could surely see our $8,250 rolling in, donation by donation, as an indication that not everyone was falling for the lies.  That surely added a spring in their step as they fought back against the lies.  I like to think so, anyway.

The rest of the money was spent in Arizona (we won) and Nevada (we lost, which was disappointing, but at least the Republican wasn’t an election denier).

State Supreme Courts

We raised $10,147 for State Supreme Court races in three states – Ohio, Michigan, and North Carolina (with most of it going to three Ohio candidates).  Ohio is frustrating.  Coming into the election, the Republicans held a 4-3 majority on the State Supreme Court.  Three of the four Republican seats were up for election.  A Democratic majority could potentially strike down gerrymandered maps and prevent the worst of the anti-choice measures from being enforced.  Alas, the Republicans won all three.  Our modest contributions helped finance a Michigan blue wave (more on the “Michigan miracle” and the spike in turnout among women and younger voters in a future post).

Down-Ballot Races in Swing Districts in Swing States

This was perhaps our most creative and potentially impactful fundraising efforts: identifying local races with nationwide impact.  Blue Guitarist identified local races in swing districts in swing states that could potentially 1) prevent the Republicans from obtaining a super-majority in states with a Democratic Governor; 2) flip a swing state legislature from red to blue; and/or 3) drive turnout in a local purple district that would help state-wide candidates.  We raised $18,924 for a total of 22 down-ballot races in 6 states: PA (8), AZ (6), OH (3), NC (2), FL (2), and NV (1).

This strategy has the potential for long-term impact, but it’s challenging to evaluate whether and how our contributions may have made a difference.  I think we will want to try this again for 2024, with an eye toward how we can evaluate success.  Or, if evaluating success is really tough, we might want to view this as an investment in the future, even if we can’t measure tangible results.

Looking Ahead

In future posts, as we look ahead to the next cycle, we can talk about the swing district/swing state concept as well as the flash-fundraising concept, which in its purest form rescued Four Directions on election day during an unexpected snowstorm in Reno.

Overall, we did very well this cycle, and maybe we can do even better in 2024, with the experience from this cycle under our belt!

Again, great job everyone.

We want to say thank you to everyone who donated.  Thank you to every Balloon Juice Angel, and to our repeat Angels!   Thank you to MomSense who set the angels in motion with an offer to match ten $10 donations with her $100, and thank you to everyone who contributed in other ways.

Who says one person can’t make a difference?  All of us working together?  I think we made some pretty big waves!  Together.

It’s A Wrap!Post + Comments (20)

Monday Morning Open Thread: Rise and… Feed the Beast!

by Anne Laurie|  January 30, 20236:49 am| 260 Comments

This post is in: Cat Blogging, Open Threads, President Biden, Proud to Be A Democrat, Vice-President Harris

There is no sleeping in when there's a cat to feed ?? pic.twitter.com/Xa77HD8IUT

— Catwheezie (@catwheezie) January 9, 2023

Biden says Willow the Cat has "no limits"

"Especially in the middle of the night when she climbs up and lays on top of my head"

— Justin Sink (@justinsink) January 26, 2023

President Biden and I are just getting started. pic.twitter.com/gLmNbpKGAN

— Vice President Kamala Harris (@VP) January 29, 2023

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Monday Morning Open Thread: Rise and… <em>Feed the Beast!</em>Post + Comments (260)

On The Road – Albatrossity – Tarangire National Park – 5

by WaterGirl|  January 30, 20235:00 am| 15 Comments

This post is in: On The Road, Photo Blogging, Tarangire National Park

It’s Albatrossity Monday!  Get out your hiking shoes – for the rest of the week we will be in the Alps With BigJimSlade!

Albatrossity

Our last day in Tarangire before heading to Lake Manyara National Park and then on to the Ngorongoro Crater brought parrots, sandgrouse, gnus and warthogs in front of the camera. A good day!

On The Road – Albatrossity – Tarangire National Park – 5Post + Comments (15)

On The Road - Albatrossity - Tarangire National Park – 5 9
Tarangire National ParkMay 15, 2018

This is a Yellow-collared Lovebird (Agapornis personatus), a bird that is endemic to Tanzania. Some field guides treat this as a subspecies of Fischer’s Lovebird (A. fischeri), which is a more colorful bird, but recent observations indicate that these two species do not interbreed in parts of the range where they both occur. These cuties were abundant at the park HQ area, where this one was preparing to nest in a man-made site that seems just about perfect for it. Click here for larger image.

Florida Man No More

by John Cole|  January 29, 20238:12 pm| 148 Comments

This post is in: John Cole Presents "This Fucking Old House"

Made it to the folks place in South Carolina for a pit stop.

Florida Man No MorePost + Comments (148)

Medium Cool – Give Us A Song and Tell Us Your Story

by WaterGirl|  January 29, 20237:00 pm| 269 Comments

This post is in: Medium Cool, Music, Popular Culture, Culture as a Hedge Against This Soul-Sucking Political Miasma We're Living In

Medium Cool is a weekly series related to popular culture, mostly film, TV, and books, with some music and games thrown in.  We hope it’s a welcome break from the anger, hate, and idiocy we see almost daily from the other side in the political sphere.

Arguments welcomed, opinions respected, fools un-suffered.  We’re here every Sunday at 7 pm.

For tonight’s Medium Cool, give us a song and tell us your story – share the memory you associate with that song.

– Did you hear Bus Stop by The Hollies at your first 8th grade party?

– Were you jumping up and down on your dorm room bed, singing and dancing to Starman by David Bowie?

– When you hear the song Yesterday by the Beatles, what memories does it conjure up?

You get the idea.  Tell us the song and the artist.  If you can, include a link to the song.  One song per comment, please, to make reading and replies easier.

(Not to worry if you’re on a phone or device where linking isn’t convenient.)

Programming reminder:  Our discussion of The Autobiography of Malcolm X is coming up fast!

Since so many of us seem to have been influenced by The Autobiography of Malcolm X, let’s plan to talk about the book on Feb 12.  That gives us about a month, in case anyone wants to re-read the book, read it for the first time, or listen to the audio version. For audio book peeps, The Autobiography of Malcom X is available on YouTube for free.  The narrator seems good, too, which is always important to me!

Okay, here we go.

Medium Cool – Give Us A Song and Tell Us Your StoryPost + Comments (269)

War for Ukraine Day 339: The Strategist’s Enemy Is Time

by Adam L Silverman|  January 29, 20236:56 pm| 86 Comments

This post is in: Food & Recipes, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

One of the key issues and concerns for strategists is time. Specifically, how to develop a strategy to either buy time or to compress it. Keep this in mind when you read President Zelenskyy’s remarks from earlier today.

The video is below, the English transcript is after the jump:

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War for Ukraine Day 339: The Strategist’s Enemy Is TimePost + Comments (86)

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