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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 345: Bakhmut!!

War for Ukraine Day 345: Bakhmut!!

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

We’ll have the rest of David Patrikarakos’s reporting after the jump.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!

Today, we have good news. Another 116 Ukrainians were released from Russian captivity.

Of them, 114 are privates and sergeants, and two are officers. Soldiers of our army, the National Guard, territorial defense, Navy, border guards, and the State Emergency Service.

We are constantly working to bring home all our people held in Russian captivity. And I’m happy every time it succeeds.

I thank our entire team that prepares exchanges, the Coordinating Staff of the Defense Intelligence. Budanov, Usov, Yermak, Klymenko, Maliuk, Lubinets – I thank everyone! Thanks to everyone who helped.

Of course, it is worth mentioning Denys Monastyrsky… He participated in preparing this exchange. And his death is really a big loss for our country.

Since February 24, our team has managed to return totally 1,762 Ukrainian men and women from Russian captivity.

I also thank all those involved in helping these people after their return.

Everyone who treats, restores documents, helps solve problematic issues of those released from captivity. It reflects the basic meaning of what we do. We restore and protect the normality of life for our people in a free country.

I spoke today with Rishi Sunak, Mr. Prime Minister of the UK. A very important conversation. We prepare pivotal things with him.

I thanked the Prime Minister and all the British people for helping our country. Now, in the UK, our guys have already started training on Challenger tanks. It’s a good vehicle. And it will be a big thing on the battlefield.

Together with our partners, we do everything daily to ensure that our soldiers have sufficient strength to defend against the terrorist state.

We also discussed other promising things that can strengthen our defense.

The issue of the threat to the international Olympic movement, which arose due to the weakness of the international sports bureaucracy, due to those who are trying to actually allow Russia to use sports for propaganda, was separately touched upon.

I am glad that the world hears our position that the Olympic principles must be unequivocally protected from the terrorist state.

Today, I signed the relevant documents to take another step to protect and cleanse our state from those on the side of the aggressor.

There is a request from the Security Service regarding persons with records that they have Russian citizenship. Tomorrow, another legal step will be taken to implement the sanctions decisions of the NSDC.

And we are working to synchronize our sanctions decisions with partner jurisdictions. The enemies of the free world have no right to use the free world for their own interests.

And one more thing.

During the 346 days of this war, I often had to say that the situation at the front was tough. And that the situation is getting tougher.

Now is that time again. A time when the occupier throws more and more of its forces to break our defenses. Now, it is very difficult in Bakhmut, Vuhledar, near Lyman, and other directions.

But now, as every day of these 346, the resilience of our soldiers decides everything. Our resilience!

It’s not about the efforts and plans of Russia. It’s about the courage and determination of our soldiers. The effectiveness and speed of all who support and help to support our defense forces. The attentiveness and persuasiveness of all those who defend Ukraine’s international positions. The strength and unity of our people – all those who work for our victory, and all those who support our heroes and the Ukrainian state.

To preserve all elements of our resilience is to guarantee victory.

Glory to all our soldiers! Thanks to everyone who helps!

Glory to Ukraine!

Another prisoner swap has occurred:

 

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar:

Bakhmut:

And the rest of David Patrikarakos’s reporting from the Thread Reader App:

Bakhmut itself is a hellscape of destruction. The city is almost deserted save for the odd, usually older, civilian who refuses to leave. 🇷🇺 forces are pounding it relentlessly. They are clearly targeting everything regardless of whether it is civilian or not.Image
If you want to discover the madness of #Russia’s 🇷🇺invasion of #Ukraine🇺🇦 come to Bakhmut. The battle for the city is now the longest of the war but the city is only of limited strategic value. Once more, Ukrainians are paying in blood for the insane dreams of a modern-day Czar.Image
“The full contact front is just there,” says one of the #Ukraine🇺🇦 soldiers I am with. “The Russians are just 200 metres down that road. Tomorrow, I will come back and kill them.”Image
The #Russia🇷🇺 tactics are based on what the soldiers here describe as “meat waves” of soldiers, usually conscripts or prisoners fighting for Wagner who are promised a pardon if they survive more than 6 months. The #🇺🇦Ukrainians often wipe them out. But more always come.Image
The #Ukraine 🇺🇦soldiers here have been fighting for a long time and they are tired, but morale remains high. They remain convinced they will win.Image
The #Ukraine 🇺🇦soldiers here always keen to show their appreciation – mainly to 🇺🇸 & 🇬🇧 – for all the help they have received. Here, @posoh_Strannika makes his feelings known. 
Drones are changing this war. A soldier tells me: “A while ago we used big, expensive tactical drones, made or the military but now, small and medium-sized civilian drones are becoming separate military units because they can cause great damage to the enemy.”Image
He continues: “We have learned how to attach small grenades and bombs to them. Now we can send up a small $3,000 Mavik 3 with a $30 grenade — and if you drop it perfectly on a T-90 you can take out a tank that costs millions.”Image
On the SF base I speak to the commander there. He continues, “if we were to lose Bakhmut, then speaking without emotion, it would not be a strategic defeat, we’d just lose a town. But in the meantime, we tie up a large force of Russians so they cannot proceed in other areas.”Image
“I think the battle will continue for about one or two months unless there is a major encirclement or something unexpected happens – it will go street by street; the artillery will slowly destroy all the tall buildings & it will descend to urban warfare. It will crawl to an end.”Image

Here’s the video from the seventh tweet. It seems to have gotten scrubbed between Twitter, the Thread Reader App, and WordPress:

Vuldehar:

 

Belgorod!

The Guardian brings us reporting that I think is illuminating of the news that key infrastructure in Belgorod, Russia is burning:

If the worst happens, Taras, 23, Vladyslav, 21, and their commander, Olexiy, 39, are well aware that the Ukrainian government will deny any knowledge of them. In western capitals, there is a collective shudder at the very thought of them.

They are members of the Bratstvo battalion, a volunteer group of Ukrainian special forces, taking the fight against Vladimir Putin beyond the frontlines of the war in Ukraine, past the occupied areas of their country – and deep into Russia.

Their work ranges from the kidnapping of senior Kremlin officials, to the destruction of key military infrastructure and the downing of enemy aircraft on Russian territory.

It might seem odd for a battalion such as theirs to allow their stories to be heard in public. But that is to misunderstand their purpose. In everything they do, there is a single message they want to send. “It is very easy for us to cross the Russian border,” says Vladyslav, the youngest of the three, with a smile.

The volunteers of the Bratstvo, Ukrainian for brotherhood, have a peculiar status, technically independent from Ukraine’s army but operating side by side with the official forces. Their arm’s-length status offers deniability.

Olexiy is in “intelligence”, he says, but the battalion recruits mainly civilians, or plucks the brightest from other voluntary battalions. He says he understands why their work must remain apart. The reasoning is nevertheless hard for them all to swallow.

It comes down to the west’s nervousness at the thought of Ukraine having the capacity to hit Russia in Russia, as highlighted by the protracted debate over Germany’s provision of Leopard 2 tanks, and the refusal of the US and others to supply F16 fighter jets.

Much of that anxiety is probably linked to the Kremlin’s threat to use nuclear weapons if the “very existence of the state is put under threat”.

“It turns out that Russians can go to Ukrainian territory, but Ukrainians cannot go into Russia,” Olexiy says.

The Bratstvo volunteers are not deterred. They insist it is vital for the Russian high command to feel the heat of battle on their own territory.

Wearing jeans, jumpers and hoodies, they are drinking coffee in Kyiv’s Taras Shevchenko Park as they tell of their adventures, while on a break from training, planning and missions. The only hint of who they are is the handgun on Vladyslav’s hip.

Because of their unofficial status, their stories could not be independently verified but they are convincing and credible. They are also extraordinary in their daring.

The second eldest of the three men, Taras, says he returned two weeks ago from what he described as a straightforward operation. “Our group needed to bring a certain amount of explosives to the territory of Russia and leave them in a certain place,” he says. “I don’t know for what and whom this explosive was intended. But I know for sure that some people in Russia are ready to help Ukrainians.”

The small taskforces, often just four or five soldiers, work out where the safe routes lie into Russia by examining the movement of livestock, or taking the advice of those who smuggled contraband before the war.

Vladyslav and his fellow fighters were tasked with “capturing or killing one of the high-ranking officers of the FSB”, the Russian security services.

“He worked close to the border with Ukraine, but on the territory of Russia,” says Vladyslav. “We had the route of this Russian officer’s car and we decided to set up an ambush.”

They were in position for hours but the car did not arrive, and the primary goal had to be abandoned as day broke. They needed to get out but they faced the challenge of breaking back into Ukraine, past the watching Russian forces gathered at the border.

“We met a border post of Russian border guards,” Vladyslav recalls. “We engaged, we were four on four. We killed three Russians and slightly wounded one. We captured him, took him to Ukrainian territory and handed him over to the Ukrainian military.”

The Ukrainians had survived another day with just one of their group suffering a gunshot wound to his arm.

Taras adds: “Our operations are actually twice as safe as those performed by the Ukrainian armed forces. It seems that this is a very dangerous job, but we are very seriously preparing for it.”

The importance of their role, for all that it is denied by the government in Kyiv and disliked by western capitals, is clear to them.

“[Western readers] may expect from us that we are going to blow up the Kremlin, but so far this is not the case,” says Taras. “My opinion is that you should start with small tasks and then move on to more complex ones. A friend of mine has a saying: ‘To destroy an enemy military base, you must first blow up the doghouse.’”

Much, much more at the link!

And some more good news:

Here’s the rest from the Thread Reader App:

He wasn’t in Wagner, but instead, operating with the callsign ‘Bereg,’ served as a captain in the 4th brigade of the 2nd Army Corps of the 8th Army. However, all was not quite as it seemed

In many ways it is a reflection of the way Russian warfighting has become a public-private partnership that his unit, which seemed to be a specialist anti-drone one, was dogged with suggestions that it was privately funded/run even if formally army /4

Mangushev himself had apparently fought in the Donbas in the ENOT PMC in 2014 and consorted with local proxy-politicians and neo-Nazis 5/

In between, he has been a political technologist/political hitman affiliated with Prigozhin’s Patriot news network, especially targeting liberals like Lyubov Sobol, who was closely affiliated with Alexei Navalny 6/

Then he turns up in the ranks, not least with his ghastly skull stunt, having – by his claim to Meduza – been the originator of the now-infamous ‘Z’ (although one needs to take the claims of self-publicists with some caution) 7/

Буква Z — официальный (и зловещий) символ российского вторжения в Украину. Мы попытались выяснить, кто это придумал, — и вот что из этого получилось — MeduzaПервые снимки и видео, запечатлевшие российскую военную технику с непонятной маркировкой на борту, появились в соцсетях за несколько недель до начала войны. Чаще всего встречалась латинская литера Z —…https://meduza.io/feature/2022/03/15/bukva-z-ofitsialnyy-i-zloveschiy-simvol-rossiyskogo-vtorzheniya-v-ukrainu-my-popytalis-vyyasnit-kto-eto-pridumal-i-vot-chto-iz-etogo-poluchilos?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=live&utm_campaign=live
A persistent suggestion has been that this humble ‘captain’ in the army is actually not only one of Prigozhin’s people but operating near-autonomously, and perhaps being groomed as a future ‘hero’ precisely for PR benefit 8/ 
And now suddenly he has been shot in the head. In battle? “Doctors say that he was wounded as a result of a shot from a short-barreled gun at close range in the occipito-parietal region downwards at an angle of 45 degrees.” 9/

Now, I may be the wrong sort of doctor, but that sounds like a ‘control shot’ execution from a pistol. According to the same report, he is currently alive but unlikely to survive. I think we can safely describe this as a hit. 10/ 
Was this about him or a proxy attack on Prigozhin? Obviously at this stage, impossible to say. However, it is worth noting that Prigozhin may have somewhat over-extended himself of late. 11/ 
Putin pretty much closed down his attacks on St P governor Beglov. Having watched Wagner burn through its zek-mercs in Wagner, the MOD now seems to be stepping in. The FSB, which for so long was happy to be on sidelines, may be getting fed up of him. 12/ 
So this could be a warning, or taking a pawn off the board, or a sign that Prigozhin’s more thuggish rivals feel he is weakened enough that they can move. Either way, it demonstrates how, under the pressure of war (and Putin’s apparent inability to control elite conflicts)… 13/ Russia is sliding back towards (aspects of) the ‘wild 90s,’ when murder was a business tactic, and the lines between politics, business, crime and war became near-meaningless. 14/end

And now we turn to the most recent news regarding the wayward Chinese spy balloon.

Obligatory:

The Associated Press has more details: (emphasis mine)

The massive white orb that drifted across U.S. airspace this week and was shot down by the Air Force over the Atlantic on live television Saturday triggered a diplomatic maelstrom and blew up on social media.

China insists the balloon was just an errant civilian airship used mainly for meteorological research that went off course due to winds and had only limited “self-steering” capabilities.

The United States says it was a Chinese spy balloon without a doubt. Its presence prompted Secretary of State Antony Blinken to cancel a weekend trip to China that was aimed at dialing down tensions that were already high between the countries.

The Pentagon says the balloon, which was carrying sensors and surveillance equipment, was maneuverable and showed it could change course. It loitered over sensitive areas of Montana where nuclear warheads are siloed, leading the military to take actions to prevent it from collecting intelligence.

A U.S. Air Force fighter jet shot down the balloon Saturday afternoon off the Carolina coast. Television footage showed a small explosion, followed by the balloon slowly drifting toward the water. An operation is underway to recover the remnants.

The Pentagon and other U.S. officials say it was a Chinese spy balloon — about the size of three school buses — that moved east over America at an altitude of about 60,000 feet (18,600 meters). The U.S. says it was being used for surveillance and intelligence collection, but officials have provided few details.

U.S. defense and military officials said Saturday that the balloon entered the U.S. air defense zone north of the Aleutian Islands on Jan. 28 and moved over land across Alaska and into Canadian airspace in the Northwest Territories on Jan. 30. The next day it crossed back into U.S. territory over northern Idaho. U.S. officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive topic.

The White House said Biden was first briefed on the balloon on Tuesday. The State Department said Blinken and Deputy Secretary Wendy Sherman spoke with China’s senior Washington-based official on Wednesday evening about the matter.

In the first public U.S. statement, Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, said Thursday evening that the balloon was not a military or physical threat — an acknowledgement that it was not carrying weapons. He said that “once the balloon was detected, the U.S. government acted immediately to protect against the collection of sensitive information.”

As for intelligence value, the U.S. officials said the balloon’s voyage across the U.S. gave experts several days to analyze it, gather technical data, and learn a lot about what it was doing, how it was doing it and why China may be using things like this. They declined to provide details, but said they expect to learn more as they gather and scrutinize the debris.

U.S. officials said Saturday that similar Chinese balloons transited the continental United States briefly at least three times during the Trump administration and once that they know about earlier in the Biden administration. But none of those incidents lasted this length of time.

Well imagine that. There is a reason that the government doesn’t just disclose certain information. Largely because while the Chinese use these things to try to collect information on us, we are collecting information on their capabilities to collect information on us. Had a reporter not been looking up at exactly the right moment, we wouldn’t know about this week’s incursion. Also, for everyone freaking out that the PRC was using this to collect their personal data, I’d like to just take a moment to introduce them to their smart phones! And for those freaking out that the PRC were using this to infect us with a bio-weapon – and the venn diagram on these two groups is almost a perfect circle – I’d like to just take a moment that you all consider COVID to be a PRC bio-weapon and yet, despite all your claims of patriotism, you couldn’t be bothered to get vaccinated, let alone vaccinated and boosted, let alone vaccinated, boosted, and wear a mask to help fend off what you believe is an act of war.

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

81Comments

  1. 1.

    gwangung

    Isn’t it kind basic tradecraft that you don’t make a big to-do about things like the spy balloon? You ALWAYS keep the other side guessing.

  3. 3.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Adam, aside from secrecy about intelligence, why do you think the Biden & Trump Administrations did not apparently object to the Chinese surveillance balloon overflight? I am sure they objected to their Chinese counterparts in private, but since the intrusions occurred repeatedly, why didn’t they any discernible action to stop it? Normally, intrusions into sovereign airspaces are considered seriously provocations, at least until he absence of an Open Skies agreement.

    Do you think the U.S. might have been conducting its own surveillance flights over China (using different, or even the same) platforms? I would think a modus vivendi where geopolitical rivals regularly conduct surveillance flights in each other’s sovereign air spaces is a dangerous one, given the crises thy have caused during the last Cold War, especially when there is sudden public disclosure (as is the case here). If the two parties want to engage in that kind of “transparency”, at least reach an Open Skies agreement 1st (which I highly doubt China will be amenable to, & it will be toxic in the current US domestic political environment).

  4. 4.

    Tehanu

    you all consider COVID to be a PRC bio-weapon and yet, despite all your claims of patriotism, you couldn’t be bothered to get vaccinated, let alone vaccinated and boosted, let alone vaccinated, boosted, and wear a mask to help fend off what you believe is an act of war.

    Problem here is the verbs.  They don’t “consider” and they don’t “believe” anything; it’s all just adolescent you’re-not-the-boss-of-me posturing.

  6. 6.

    Martin

    @gwangung: Well, not just that but whenever the public learns about these things they always freak out in the least helpful ways. Always. The US didn’t postpone Blinken’s China trip when the balloon broke US airspace – they postponed it when the public lost their collective minds.

  7. 7.

    Alison Rose

    Those Bratstvo folks are my new favorite people. The nonchalant bravery and badassness of it all is impressive.

    And then on the other side we have people who are “promised a pardon if they survive more than six months” which…yeah, I’m no military expert but I’m gonna take a wild guess that doesn’t lead to your best possible outcomes.

    Also, attention nerds: Mark Hamill will be selling signed Star Wars posters to raise money for United24.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  9. 9.

    Adam L Silverman

    @YY_Sima Qian: I can’t answer the second question as to US attempts to collect over China because I just don’t know. Way out of my areas of expertise.

    As to why you’d want to keep it quiet, overall because you have other things you want to be able to still engage the PRC on. In regard to this incident, from the reporting, that was the plan with this one. The Secretary of State was supposed to fly to Beijing for meetings this week. Now those have been postponed. The reporting makes it clear the plan was to quietly address this with the PRC so that the diplomacy could go forward. Now the diplomacy is on hold and, I’m sure, hardliners in the Chinese government, military, and security/intel services have one more thing to be pissed about now that we’ve not just been able to collect on their collection, but actually have an entire technical suite that we’re going to be able to pull apart and study.

    I suspect that in regard to the three incidents that occurred when Trump was president, the professionals were using the same logic I’ve detailed above. Trump most likely had his own logic. Specifically, maintaining his friendship and personal relationship with Xi, so that all the business Ivanka was doing in the PRC could continue, and all the business that Jared’s sister was doing with wealthy Chinese nationals, on behalf of Kushner’s real estate company, could continue as well.

  14. 14.

    Sally

    May repeat from a previous thread, that two Raptors involved in shooting down the balloon had the call signs “Frank01″ and Frank02” after WW1 pilot Frank Luke Jr, who was the Arizona Balloon Ace.

    Someone put some thought into this!

    Dark Brandon

  20. 20.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Martin: It was also instructive that the Canadian government did not say a thing when the balloon was over its sovereign airspace. However, when the new blew up in the US (after the surveillance balloon had already left Canada) & the Biden Administration had to convey public displeasure, then Canadian government called in the Chinese ambassador to register protest, too.

  22. 22.

    Another Scott

    Defense.gov:

    An F-22 Raptor fighter from the 1st Fighter Wing at Langley Air Force Base, Virginia, fired one AIM-9X Sidewinder missile at the balloon.

    The balloon fell approximately six miles off the coast in about 47 feet of water. No one was hurt.

    47 feet is oddly specific.

    The F22 was cancelled after 186 were delivered because it was too expensive. Taking out balloons is something safe, and low-risk, for the AF to do with it. ;-)

    I’m kinda surprised that they used a Sidewinder on it. The Navy first started using them in 1956…

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  24. 24.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: Thanks for the reply. This whole affair is rather bizarre to me. What can be gathered from stratospheric balloons that can’t be gathered from existing satellites?

    The US might have been “tolerating” such overflights in the past, but Chinese military/intelligence can’t possibly think the balloons are stealthy to NORAD. Shoot down &/or capture is always a possibility, so I doubt Chinese military/intelligence will put their most advanced instruments onboard. The fact that administrations officials is telling the press that the US has been collecting the communications from the balloon means either the US thinks China already knows about this capability, or that the US does not mind that China knows.

    Anyway, I can’t imagine the intelligence collected from such overflights are worth the potential geopolitical risk, given the capabilities of the spy satellites these days. (The same applies to potential overflights in the other direction.) If the US had shot down the previous surveillance balloons as they entered or left US airspace, China probably would have stopped.

    Hopefully, this whole public brouhaha will put a end to these stupid games.

  25. 25.

    Martin

    @Sister Golden Bear: That piece on Brigitte Bond was really fascinating. It’s curious how we can go forward and backward at the same time – that by all accounts it might have been safer to be a transgender cabaret performer in fascist Spain than it is to be a non-transgender drag queen reading Goodnight Moon to a bunch of kids at a public library in Indiana half a century later. Thanks for sharing that.

  26. 26.

    Baud

    How high would the balloon have to be for it to fall under the jurisdiction of the Space Force rather than the Air Force?

  27. 27.

    Martin

    @Another Scott: AIM 9 has seen a lot of upgrades. But yeah, it seems when they keep Congress from chasing every shiny thing the Pentagon prefers the ‘if it ain’t broke don’t fix it’ strategy.

  29. 29.

    oldster

    @Another Scott:

    “I’m kinda surprised that they used a Sidewinder on it. The Navy first started using them in 1956…”

    The Daisy Red Ryder BB gun was first sold in 1940, and that would have downed the balloon pretty well, too, if they could get it mounted on the F-22’s hardpoints.

    As I said in an earlier thread, I suspect that the AF will have modified that missile by removing the war head and turning it into a kinetic kill vehicle. No point letting an explosion blow shrapnel into the spy equipment that we’d like to study.

  31. 31.

    Martin

    @Baud: 100km. It was pretty far from that. And I’m not sure that the Air Force and Navy have surrender their ability to shoot down satellites to the Space Force, so even then it might not have matted.

    And probably just as well, who knows what kind of damage Space Force could have done if a photon torpedo had missed and hit Raleigh.

  32. 32.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Here is a video from 2019 by Chinese state media about the PLAAF shooting down a likely stray weather balloon that entered Chinese airspace, though the report characterized it as a potential high altitude surveillance balloon. Did not show the balloon in flight, but showed the wreckage. They used a J-10C medium fight for the job.

    https://twitter.com/RickJoe_PLA/status/1621629693983358977

  33. 33.

    Carlo Graziani

    If anyone would like to see a very nice visualization of the stratospheric winds that the Bawwoon rode, check out this site. I’ve set the URL to display 7000 Pa pressure, which corresponds to about 18,400 meters, not too far from the thing’s actual altitude.

    There’s a sort of hole with a diverter to the North over Alberta/British Columbia, possibly corresponding to the onset of the Rockies. The Western part of the flow heads South over California before joining a Westerly drift over the Central US, while the Eastern part flows over the Great Lakes, exiting the continent in Northern New England. Based on the fact that the exit point was in the Carolinas, I believe that the balloon followed the Western/Southern path.

    I’m more than a little skeptical about the degree of steering control that this thing is alleged to have, based on it’s ability to change altitude, particularly since many folks who express views on this appear to be talking of below-the-tropopause ballooning, rather than stratospheric control. But I can’t claim expertise of stratospheric ballooning, and perhaps there is some acceptable margin of control. I would only point out that at 18 km altitude, the balloon needs to pass within 31 km of a surveillance target to capture photos at a less than 60° angle, and beyond that distance the shape of the ArcTan() function tells us that it might as well be taking snaps from the horizon. That’s not a lot of lateral margin to hit using very crude lateral control. Perhaps it’s possible, but, you know, “show me.”

  35. 35.

    oldster

    I love to hear about the execution of Mangushev, the buddy of Prigozhin. Let the spiders eat each other. Whether that was a hit authorized by Putin, or by an irritated Shoigu, or even by Prigozhin himself, it’s all good news. Let them fight. And let Ukraine prevail.

  38. 38.

    dmsilev

    @Another Scott: As I understand it, this is the first (vaguely) hostile target ever shot down by an F-22.

    Wonder how long it took the ground crew to make up a balloon stencil to mark the event?

  39. 39.

    Martin

    @YY_Sima Qian: Anyway, I can’t imagine the intelligence collected from such overflights are worth the potential geopolitical risk, given the capabilities of the spy satellites these days. (The same applies to potential overflights in the other direction.) If the US had shot down the previous surveillance balloons as they entered or left US airspace, China probably would have stopped.

    The risk is always a function of the other party’s willingness to hold them accountable.

    But as I’m learning there’s quite a lot that you can’t collect via satellite. A lot of signals are now directional and high enough frequency that they don’t leave the atmosphere, specifically to make sure satellites can’t read them. Infrared sensing doesn’t work great either from space.

    I still can’t imagine they meant to fly this big fucking thing directly over the US, though.

  40. 40.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Carlo Graziani: Unrelated, but I read that in the recent cold-weather event here in New England, the tropopause dipped low enough that the summit of Mt. Washington (NH) was in the stratosphere. I know precious little about atmospheric science, so just presenting what I read.

  43. 43.

    YY_Sima Qian

    WSJ report that indicates Chinese companies are supplying Russia w/ dual use items (aircraft parts, electronic components, commodity chips, etc.) that could be used by the Russian military, sometimes through 3rd countries, based on customs data. Dollar value does not appear to be all that high, just over US$30M / mo. for chips (slightly blow pre-sanctions levels), US$ 1.2M for parts for the Su-35 fighter. Suppliers are smaller Chinese private enterprises that have no exposure to Western market, & larger state owned companies that are already under US sanctions, so they have little to lose.

    DJI’s civilian drones, however, are widely used by both the Russians & the Ukrainians (not to mention militaries around the world).

    Hong Kong is a major conduit for such shipments, as are Türkiye & the UAE.

  48. 48.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Alison Rose: A lot would depend on his family. He’d have been born in ~1951, so post-WWII USSR, well after Stalin’s ethnic resettlement policies, so a majority ethnically-russian area. But he may have been born into a Ukrainian-speaking household, I can’t know.

  53. 53.

    Jay

    Putin’s war is based on lies and deception. Russian disinformation operations have enlisted celebrities and so-called news organizations to echo the Kremlin.That’s why we are sanctioning 38 individuals and 16 entities that are complicit in peddling Russian propaganda. pic.twitter.com/J5f5LF0q3d— Mélanie Joly (@melaniejoly) February 3, 2023

  54. 54.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: Interesting Ars Technica interview w/ someone developing stratospheric balloons for surveillance (but not defense/intel) purposes. He speculates that a flight termination device on the balloon failed, & the it drifted unintentionally far into CONUS. He also says it is possible to do limited steering & stationkeeping in the stratosphere by adjusting altitude, but also that the winter months is a poor time for steered stratospheric flight because the wind currents are too stable in the Northern Hemisphere. Summer is better.

  55. 55.

    Jay

    ‘I Couldn’t Stay Silent’: Anti-War ‘Flower Protests’ Spread to 60 Cities Across Russia https://t.co/vGFZHXzHUA— Marijus Petrušonis #StandWithUkraine (@MarijusPetruson) February 3, 2023

    Went looking for it again, but couldn’t find is again, a short vid of the “Karelian Brigaide” blowing up switchboxes and railroad tracks, in support of Ukraine.

  56. 56.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Martin:

    The risk is always a function of the other party’s willingness to hold them accountable.

    That is why the US should have been shooting down the balloons during the prior intrusions, especially if they had ventured some distance into sovereign airspace.

  59. 59.

    Gin & Tonic

    @oldster: There are pictures floating around of Mangushev in his current condition, which Adam was probably too discreet to post. They’re, um, not going to patch that up

  63. 63.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Another Scott: Looks like the missile hit the payload & not the balloon. Apparently the surveillance balloon had also fallen to 45K ft. altitude, presented greater potential hazard to civilian aviation, & also made the shoot down much easier.

  69. 69.

    oldster

    @Jay:

    I always disagreed with Frank Herbert about that. He thought it was somehow more “human” to wait in the trap. I thought he was wrong.

    In any case — good doggo. I hope he enjoys a long and peaceful retirement.

  70. 70.

    Feathers

    This is a question I’ve been wondering about since the balloon shoot down. Since, presumably, this was a target which could be easily taken down by any US fighter pilot, how do they choose who gets a job like this? Presumably, Langley AFB in Hampton, VA was the closest. But how would they pick the pilot? There has to be bragging rights, even if within a very small circle. I got this picture in my head of a Top Gun: Maverick type competition over the last few days, but that seems silly. Would it just be luck of the draw or would someone be chosen?

  71. 71.

    YY_Sima Qian

    NYT reporting of a recent classified report to Congress on aerial spying by foreign power (inferred to be China) toward the US.

    Classified U.S. Report Highlights Foreign Power Aerial Spying With Advanced Tech
    Before a Chinese spy balloon was discovered in the United States, American officials said a rival power may have used advanced technology to surveil U.S. military sites.

    Since the report is still classified, most of the article is basically pointless mumbo-jumbo, but a few interesting nuggets:

    1. Spy balloons are relatively “basic” collection devices, does not offer meaningful additional capabilities over Chinese spy satellites, but apparently pretty common
    2. Aside from surveillance balloons, there have been other instances of suspected aerial surveillance, some of which “appear to have demonstrated unusual flight characteristics or performance capabilities, and require further analysis”
    3. 2 of the targeted sites were MCAS Iwakuni in Japan & NAS Fallon in Nevada
    4. These unusual aerial surveillance were not conducted by hypersonic vehicles

    However, it is also possible that these usual sightings were innocuous, as “imperfect radar and sensor readings could cause confusion, making an ordinary object appear to be something threatening”.

  72. 72.

    Another Scott

    @YY_Sima Qian: These are old ideas that the DoD has spent some money on.

    ISIS:

    In 2006, contracts were awarded to Raytheon for development of a large-area, light, Active electronically scanned array antenna which could be bonded to the structure of a blimp,[1] Northrop Grumman for antenna development, and Lockheed Martin for development of the airship.[2] As proposed, the 450-foot (140 m)-long surveillance airship could be launched from the US and stationed for up to 10 years at an altitude of 65,000 feet (20,000 m), observing the movement of vehicles, aircraft, and people below.[3] At that altitude, the airship would be beyond the range of most surface-to-air and air-to-air missiles. The airship would be filled with helium and powered, at least in part, by solar-powered hydrogen fuel cells.

    It’s not surprising that other countries have balloon / airship surveillance programs. Biden illustrating publicly that we won’t tolerate them over US territory is probably a good thing.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  73. 73.

    Sally

    @Feathers: I mentioned earlier that the two Raptors had call sign “Frank01” and “Frank02” after WW1 pilot Frank Luke Jr, who was known as the Arizona Balloon Buster.
    I thought someone a had put some thought into this. Dark Brandon.

  75. 75.

    patrick II

    “Reporting from Ukraine” youtube site claims Russia is planning a large offensive in the next week. The offensive has been moved up because of Putin’s order to make territorial gains by the end of March and the future arrival of tanks and equipment from the West.

    Russians ready for offensive operation

  76. 76.

    Hangö Kex

    There was a balloon incident ~25 years ago where a wayward one from Canada ended up in Finland. “Canadian fighter planes fired more than 1,000 machine-gun rounds at the 100m-tall balloon”, but that just made it leak enough to end up in Finland 10 days or so later*. This sort of resilience is probably why an AIM-9X was (reportedly**) used. Seemed a bit strange, though, as this is a heat-seeking missile and a balloon doesn’t have much of an IR signature; the solar panels, being dark, were probably the hottest spot on it, getting warm from the absorbed sunlight and then radiating some IR, maybe enough for an AIM-9X to lock on in absence of anything hotter, which would explain the (less than ideal) hit on the payload (which did get it down though).

    Anyways, thanks to Adam, as always. :)

    * http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/163652.stm
    ** https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64524105

  78. 78.

    Geminid

    I got around to reading a Wednesday Washington Post article headlined “After NATO chief’s urging, Seoul might reconsider sending arms to Seoul.” South Korea has provided “humanitarian and other non-lethal aid to Ukraine,” but is wary of its bilateral relations with Russia, so far it has not supplied weapons.

    On a visit Monday, NATO head Stoltenburg urged his hosts to use their formidable arms industry to help Ukraine fight Russian agression. The next day, standing beside visiting U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austen at a news conference, South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-Sup said that he was aware of “need for the international effort” and that his government was “directing our close attention” to the situation. The Post reporter interpreted this as “leaving the door open.”

    The article also treated the a potential South Korean effort to build its own nuclear weapons. Last month President Yoon Suk Yeol said that South Korea might need nuclear weapons of its own, or demand redeployment of U.S. nukes to his country. Secretary Austin emphasized that the U.S. commitment to South Korea “includes the full range of our conventional, nuclear and missile defense capabilities,” and is “iron clad.”

    Polling has indicated that development of a  South Korean nuclear deterrent is popular there, but mainstream politicians have largely stayed away from advocating this course.

  80. 80.

    Nina

    I saw a note on one of ISW’s maps that Prigozhin claimed that they had captured Sakko and Vantsetti as of February 1.  Wait a minute, says I, that has got to be a joke.  And so I looked up those spellings, and sure enough there are two places in Donbass named after Sacco and Vanzetti.

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