Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

I know this must be bad for Joe Biden, I just don’t know how.

T R E 4 5 O N

You cannot shame the shameless.

A sufficient plurality of insane, greedy people can tank any democratic system ever devised, apparently.

Happy indictment week to all who celebrate!

The republican caucus is already covering themselves with something, and it’s not glory.

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

Thanks to your bullshit, we are now under siege.

Everybody saw this coming.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

A last alliance of elves and men. also pet photos.

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

Sitting here in limbo waiting for the dice to roll

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

Russian mouthpiece, go fuck yourself.

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

“woke” is the new caravan.

🎶 Those boots were made for mockin’ 🎵

Tick tock motherfuckers!

If you are still in the GOP, you are an extremist.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

After roe, women are no longer free.

Let there be snark.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 347: Bakhmut, Vuhledar, and Waiting for the Next Offensive in the East

War for Ukraine Day 347: Bakhmut, Vuhledar, and Waiting for the Next Offensive in the East

by | 71 Comments

This post is in: , , , , , , ,

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, I held a regular meeting of the Staff. There are many issues. The key is actions on the frontline. In the Donetsk region and other directions. Particular attention is paid to Bakhmut. To our defense. To the occupier’s attempts to surround the city and break the defense there. We are countering them.

I am grateful to every warrior who ensures counteraction with his resilience!

Today, I would like to commend the warriors of the 54th and 93rd separate mechanized brigades, the 15th separate battalion of the 128th mountain assault brigade. Thank you, warriors, for your bravery and steadfastness! For the resilience Ukraine needs so much.

Today at the meeting of the Staff we also discussed the supply of ammunition to our warriors. Artillery is one of the key factors. As always, the Commander-in-Chief and the commanders of the directions delivered reports. The head of intelligence reported on the occupier’s current plans.

We are also strengthening our management positions. In a number of regions – especially in the border and frontline regions – we are appointing managers with military experience. Those who can prove themselves in the most effective way in the defense against the current threats. I will inform you about each such decision.

In general, it is worth noting that we will combine the experience gained by our people in defending Ukraine – military experience – with specific managerial work in positions in local and central government.

Today I have heard reports on the situation in Odesa and the region – the one related to the liquidation of the consequences of the energy accident. All services, all officials are working, everyone is involved.

The repair work has already yielded part of the required result, and generators and power equipment are being delivered to the region and the city.

As of now, there are power outages in a large part of the Odesa region. We are doing everything we can to provide electricity to people. Once again, I thank each and every person involved in this work.

Today we have very tragic news from Türkiye and Syria. There was a powerful earthquake there. There are many casualties. Thousands of homes have been destroyed.

My sincere condolences to Mr. President of Türkiye Erdoğan, as well as to those in Syrian society who have lost loved ones, who have lost their homes.

Ukraine immediately responded and offered Türkiye support in the rescue operation.

And one more thing.

The formation of new brigades of the National Guard, police, and border guards – the Offensive Guard – continues. The beginning is powerful. The process will be continued. I thank everyone who has shown interest in the formation of brigades. I thank everyone who has applied!

Good motivation plus good training equals the ability of our defense and security forces to regain what belongs to Ukraine.

Glory to all who fight for Ukraine! Glory to each and every one who works for our country! Glory to everyone who helps!

Today, by the way, we have a very important decision from Norway – the five-year aid package for our country in the amount of NOK 75 billion.

This is an extremely significant contribution to our victory, which we are preparing. A joint victory of all those who really value freedom and value life.

I thank all Norwegians and Mr. Prime Minister personally!

Thank you to all our partners!

Thank you, people of Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Bakhmut:

Bakhmut:

Just keep in mind the video below is almost 20 hours old:

Vuhledar:

The Washington Post has reporting on the battle for Vuhldehar, with a bit on Bakhmut:

BOHOYAVLENKA, Ukraine — Russian forces have launched a midwinter surge of attacks in Ukraine’s hotly contested Donetsk region, probing Kyiv’s defenses along a fresh stretch of the sprawling eastern front as President Vladimir Putin’s commanders ready a new push to conquer all of southeast Ukraine.

The attacks in recent days have centered on Vuhledar, a mostly deserted coal-mining city 70 miles southwest of Bakhmut, where Russian fighters have made some of their first territorial gains in months. Plumes of smoke rise almost constantly from Vuhledar, and the dark woods and rolling fields surrounding the city ring with mortar and artillery volleys from each side.

“They have been pushing hard for last four days, but we have stopped them,” said Dykanka, a Ukrainian fighter whom The Washington Post agreed to identify only by his call sign because of security risks.

Amid artillery blasts that shook snow from the bare tree branches, Dykanka, 43, was taking a break along a tank track cut through a forest outside of Vuhledar. An exposed cache of ready 155mm howitzer shells nearby was marked as “ordnance of the U.S. Army.”

Vuhledar sits at a crucial bend in the battlefield near where the eastern front meets Russia’s line of control to the south, which in turn forms Putin’s much-coveted “land bridge” to Crimea from mainland Russia. It is close to a rail line connecting Crimea, a hub for Russian troops and supplies, and the Donbas region.

Dykanka and other fighters said Russian troops have made nearly daily attempts to overwhelm Ukrainian forces defending Vuhledar and to breach Ukrainian lines extending northwest and southeast of the city.

So far, the Ukrainians have held them off, punching back with artillery, much of it donated by Western allies, machine gun fire and improvised bombs dropped by drones.

But as the first anniversary of the invasion approaches, and Moscow deploys tens of thousands of reinforcements to the front, military analysts and soldiers on the battlefield say the momentum seized last autumn by Ukraine in two major counteroffensives has stalled.

And near Vuhledar, at least, the initiative has even shifted incrementally back to the enemy, they say.

“You can feel the intensity building in the last week,” said Andrii, a machine-gunner who had just come off a five-day stint outside of Vuhledar where he slept in a log-covered trench when not keeping his mounted Browning trained on Russian positions.

“We are more in a defensive position,” Andrii said. “We are not making gains from here.”

Farther north near Bakhmut, a months-long onslaught led by Wagner mercenaries helped Russia capture the salt-mining town of Soledar, and the Kremlin’s forces are now poised to seize control of the city. Near Vuhledar, they have gained no significant ground since November when Russian forces retook Pavlivka, a village just to the south, that has changed hands more than once since the invasion almost a year ago.

But in a recent interview with The Post, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, said there are now over 320,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine — more than double Moscow’s estimated initial invasion force of 150,000. Ukraine, in turn, faces an acute need of more soldiers and weapons.

Ukrainian military officials, and outside military experts, however, say that Russia may not be able to capitalize on the advantage of its force size.

Troop shortages, command failures and, more recently, dwindling munitions have hampered the invaders from taking advantage of costly conquests early in the war, of cities like Lysychansk in the Luhansk region.

“At first, they had the equipment but they didn’t have the men. Now they have the men, but they don’t have the equipment,” said Konrad Muzyka, a defense analyst and director at Rochan Consulting, based in Poland.

Western weapons have further disrupted Russia’s usual military doctrine of massing a preponderance of troops and weapons to pierce the enemy line and then advance deeper into enemy territory, Muzyka said. The U.S.-supplied HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System), which was deployed in Ukraine last summer and uses GPS-guided munitions, has proved particularly effective at targeting that kind of concentration of forces.

Muzyka and other military experts say a victory over Vuhledar and its environs, on its own, would have limited military value for Moscow — a point they have similarly made about Bakhmut. “If Vuhledar falls, it will be a minor tactical victory at best,” he said.

But every captured city, large or small, represents a step toward Putin’s goals. And in Moscow, where military officials have faced withering criticism from war hawks over its military defeats so far, there is mounting pressure for victories, even symbolic ones.

Many Ukrainians fighting here believe that is precisely what Russia is after.

“Vuhledar is not a strategic priority in military terms, but it is a strategic priority for Russian propaganda,” said Oleksii Dmytrashkivskyi, the military spokesman for the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.

Much more at the link.

The Wall Street Journal has its own reporting about what may becoming in the late winter/early spring offensive in eastern Ukraine:

DNIPRO, Ukraine—Ukraine warned that Russia was completing preparations for a major new offensive this month as Kyiv signaled a reshuffle in its military leadership amid a corruption scandal that has rocked the Defense Ministry.

Serhiy Haidai, the governor of the Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine, said Russia was continuing to bolster its offensive capacity and bring in troops to front-line positions while decreasing its rate of fire in certain areas to save ammunition for the coming advance.

“We can see that more and more reserves are being brought in our direction, we’re observing more military equipment that is being partly hidden in forested areas or dug in,” Mr. Haidai said in a TV interview on Monday.

Russia has in recent months been training thousands of mobilized troops in Belarus and parts of western Russia in preparation for their deployment to Ukraine. Mr. Haidai said that signs indicate that this training is coming to an end and that Moscow has allocated two weeks for these new service members to enter Russian-held parts of Ukraine and take up positions.

“Starting from February 15 we can expect [a major offensive] at any time,” he said.

Ukraine has been steeling itself for a big Russian offensive for weeks. The lines of control in the east and south of the country had been largely static for months until Russia began intensifying attacks last month and pushed to surround the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region and oust Ukrainian forces from the Luhansk region to the north.

“We are expecting this push. We are ready,” Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said in a press conference on Sunday.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged the threat to the Donetsk region.

“Particular attention is paid to Bakhmut. To our defense. To the occupier’s attempts to surround the city and break the defense there,” he said in his nightly address Monday. “We are countering them.”

Much more at the link.

And not to be left out, The New York Times has its own reporting on the potential offensive:

NEVSKE, Ukraine — In a tiny village in eastern Ukraine at the epicenter of the next phase of the war, Lyudmila Degtyaryova measures the Russian advance by listening to the boom of incoming artillery shells.

There are more and more of them now. And they are coming more frequently, as Russian troops grind their way forward.

“You should see the fireworks here,” said Ms. Degtyaryova, 61, as the sounds of artillery howled all around. “It is like New Year’s.”

Russia’s military is preparing to launch a new offensive that could soon swallow Ms. Degtyaryova’s village of Nevske, and perhaps much more in the eastern Ukrainian region known as the Donbas. But already the impact of Russia’s stepped-up assault is being felt in the towns and villages along the hundreds of miles of undulating eastern front.

Exhausted Ukrainian troops complain they are already outnumbered and outgunned, even before Russia has committed the bulk of its roughly 200,000 newly mobilized soldiers. And doctors at hospitals speak of mounting losses as they struggle to care for fighters with gruesome injuries.

The civilians standing in the way of Russia’s planned advance once again face the agonizing decision of whether to leave or to stay and wait out the coming calamity. This area in the northern Donbas was among the last to be liberated in a Ukrainian blitz offensive last fall that raised hopes among local residents that their months of trauma were over.

But the war has come back. Two weeks ago, a Russian shell landed in Ms. Degtyaryova’s yard, and as she contemplated her future over the weekend, the remains of her barn still smoldered.

She has rabbits, ducks and three pregnant cows to care for. A chicken, its feathers partly burned off in the recent strike, lay recovering in a bed of hay, its small injured foot in a homemade cast.

When and where the new offensive will begin in earnest is still unclear, but Ukrainian officials are gravely concerned. Ukraine’s military defied dire assessments before the war, thwarting Russia’s early efforts to seize the capital, Kyiv, and eventually driving Russian forces back in the northeast and south.

But the Russian military just keeps coming. Right now, the newly mobilized troops are finishing their training and entering the field; the forces include as many soldiers as took part in the initial invasion last year.

They could be ready to fight in as little as two weeks, said Serhiy Haidai, the governor of the Luhansk Region, which includes Nevske — much sooner than new Western weapons, including tanks and heavy armored fighting vehicles, are expected to arrive in Ukraine.

“There are so many,” Mr. Haidai said of the new recruits. “These are not professional soldiers, but it is still 200,000 people who are shooting in our direction.”

Russia is expected to punch hard, looking to reverse nearly a year of cascading failure. While a renewed attack on Kyiv is now considered improbable, Russian forces will likely try to recover territories they lost last fall. as well as take full control of the Donbas, a key objective of Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin.

Military analysts say that one likely scenario would be for Russian forces to swing down from the north and up from the south in an arc, creating a large claw that would cut off Ukrainian supply lines running east and west. That would put villages like Nevske in the direct path of Russia’s likely advance.

For locals it would be a disaster. Out here at the far edge of Ukraine’s offensive, people have not experienced the fruits of liberation the way Ukrainians farther west have. There is still no power or water and the fighting has never subsided. Fields of black unharvested sunflowers are pocked with snow-filled craters, and the area is littered with burned out tanks and unexploded ordinance and mines that frequently kill livestock. Passing through the region, one occasionally comes across their frozen bodies or bones.

Much more at the link.

Michael Kofman, the Director of Russia Studies at the Center for Naval Analysis, has posted his most recent assessment of where things stand in Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s re-invasion:

Here’s the rest from the Thread Reader App:

After Kharkiv & Kherson, the Russian military was at its most vulnerable going into the winter. Mobilization helped stabilize Russian lines, raise manning levels, and establish reserves. Consequently, Ukraine no longer enjoys a significant manpower advantage. 2/ 
RU adopted a largely defensive strategy under Surovikin focused on force reconstitution, entrenchment, and a strike campaign against UA critical infrastructure. Bakhmut was not an exception, largely fought by Wagner PMCs from RU prison system. 3/ 

When mobilization was launched I was wary of the uncertainty it introduced, and its potential to significantly extend the war. At the time, a reasonable timeline to assess what RU could make of mobilized personnel was 3-4 months. 4/

Unroll available on Thread Reader
It’s fair to say since October RU has likely doubled the force deployed in Ukraine, and significantly reduced the length of the front being defended after retreating from Kherson. Force density has therefore increased relative to territory being occupied. 5/ 
The UA official figure on RU forces (320k) strikes me as a bit high, but 250k+ is probably fair. RU may have another 150,000 mobilized personnel still in Russia, not deployed. However, readiness level and quality of these units remains unclear. 6/ washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/…
How strong the Russian defensive lines are in practice has yet to be truly tested. RU has manpower in quantity now & continues to pull equipment out of storage, but force quality appears relatively low. This limits offensive potential & force employment options. 7/ 
In brief, mobilized units in aggregate do not appear as poor as anecdotes might lead one to believe, and RU can likely offer a stubborn defense, but are less liable to be suitable for offensive operations and represent weak replacements for lost regulars. 8/ 
RU still depends on airborne and naval infantry at key points along the front as the reserve, for counter attacks, and the main assault force. These units backstop mobilized personnel, but seem to have lost some of their offensive edge due to replacements. 9/ 
After Soledar, the situation around Bakhmut increasingly looks precarious for UA, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they ultimately withdraw from the city. However, UA has strong defensive lines outside Slovyansk/Kramatorsk while RU looks ill positioned to sustain momentum. 10/ 
Bakhmut is geographically important, but has developed a degree of sunk cost mentality for both sides. A fair bit of UA defense there seems to consist of TDF, NG, and foreign legion units suggesting UA is trying to manage the impact of attrition on its force availability. 11/ 
Having lost Izyum and Lyman, RU has no supporting axis of attack into Donetsk from the north, nor have their forces been able to make breakthroughs in the south of Donetsk. Hence gaining Bakhmut, in my view, offers opportunities for RU that they’re not positioned to exploit. 12/ 

Since June I’ve been skeptical that RU could make break through to Slovyansk/Kramatorsk. They’re still at Bakhmut 7 months later. That said, UA has ceded much of the initiative since October in Donetsk, and recently Luhansk. 13/

Unroll available on Thread Reader
UA had made progress at Kreminna and Svatove, though now under counter-attack by the VDV’s 76th GAAD. Kreminna is a gateway to Rubizhne. For UA, a breakthrough the Svatove-Kreminna line can eventually lead to the RU logistical hub of Starobilsk. 14/ 
Hence the battle for Kreminna is arguably more significant than Bakhmut. That said there’s been a fair amount of reorganization in RU logistics, and adaptation. I think the conversation on RU logistical problems in general suffers from too much anecdotalism & received wisdom. 15/ 
In my view Donbas remains the primary goal of RU mil operations, hence RU offensives are likely to focus on seizing this territory. I’m skeptical of claims that Russian forces will attempt a much larger scope offensive involving the cities of Kharkiv, Sumy, Kyiv, etc. 16/ 
I would consider a Russian attempt to advance Kreminna -> Lyman as likely, also Kupyansk, along with attacks across southern Donetsk, i.e. at Vuhledar. The fighting for Vuhledar, along with attacks elsewhere, suggest that this offensive has already begun in practice. 17/ 
RU’s better forces and kit, VDV and NI, have been trying to unsuccessfully press UA forces out of Vuhledar. The 155th couldn’t do it under Surovikin at Pavlivka in November, so its unsurprising Gerasimov taking over has done nothing to improve RU offensive performance. 18/ 
With respect to Belarus, a repeat assault on Kyiv makes little sense. An operation to sever supply lines in the west, or to seize the nuclear powerplant by Rivne, may be more feasible, but this would require a much larger force than what RU currently has deployed in Belarus. 19/ 
How large of a RU offensive to expect is unclear, but I suspect it may prove underwhelming, focused largely on the Donbas. RU may not need another large mobilization wave, and instead could keep mobilization quietly rolling at a sustainable rate. 20/ 
Arguably, UA is better served absorbing the RU attack & exhausting RU offensive potential, then taking the initiative later this spring. Having expended ammunition, better troops, and equipment it could leave RU defense overall weaker. 21/ 
But, I suspect Kyiv does not believe that time is on Ukraine’s side. Wary of Russian entrenchment and seeking to avoid the perception of a stalemate, UA is likely to move sooner than later. That’s been the trend thus far. 22/ 
Western equipment may not arrive in time to be relevant for a UA offensive, but more significant in that it will allow UA to launch operations this spring knowing they have replacements secured. Hence the likely losses entailed won’t leave UA vulnerable later this year. 23/ 
In general UA is still advantaged going into 2023, backed by countries with much greater GDP and defense industrial capacity. However, that depends on sustainability of external material support, and in the end potential is not predictive of outcomes. 24/ 
The challenge is providing Ukraine with sufficient relative advantage to enable offensive operations under changed conditions in 2023. Unlikely to be solved by any single capability, but through a combination of means, organizational adaptations, and changes in force employment.

And here’s a follow on Q&A:

Ugh!

Obligatory!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

#песпатрон #патрондснс

♬ ZEE – ZEE

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

71Comments

  1. 1.

    Alison Rose

    Elon Musk is a fucking idiot. And yet, in the grand tradition of conservative white assholes, thinks he’s a genius. And all of his groupies are even bigger idiots than he is, so they believe him. Sigh.

    I thought it was very striking for Ukraine to offer help and aid to Türkiye. It shows yet again the goodness of the country and Zelenskyy, to make such an offer while they’re fighting back an invasion. They are a nation of the world, whereas russia is a nation of itself alone.

    Today (well, yesterday now in Ukraine, I guess) was Olena’s birthday! Zelenskyy posted a lovely tribute on Facebook — the auto-translation might be a bit off, but you still get the very sweet gist of it.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  2. 2.

    Princess

    I very much doubt Musk is as stupid as people think he is. Impulsive, reactive, yes, but not stupid. Not devoid of critical thinking, though motivated more by ego. I ascribe his statements and actions to malevolence.

  3. 3.

    Amir Khalid

    @Princess:

    While I agree that Elon delights in being mean, I wouldn’t exclude stupidity as a driver of his actions/tweets. I think he’s both malevolent and stupid.

  7. 7.

    oldster

    The situation around Bakhmut makes me anxious, and the prospect of a huge new ruzzian offensive makes me almost sick with anxiety. It is so outrageously unfair that good people will have to die to stop human waves of convicts being driven from behind by murderous tools of a madman.

    I wish we were doing more to help them. More Bradleys, more ammo, more missiles,  more bombs.

  9. 9.

    patrick II

    @Princess: ​
    Musk resents democracy because it is rule by law, not by Elon Musk. An important reason he bought twitter was because they enforced rules against him. Nobody sits Baby in a corner

  10. 10.

    Ruckus

    Elon Musk is commenting for the billionth time on subjects he has no idea about.

    This is my shocked face.

    Not.

  11. 11.

    Bill Arnold

    @Amir Khalid:

    I think he’s both malevolent and stupid.

    “Stupid” is the wrong word.
    He is gullible.
    He is easily manipulated.
    He is willfully ignorant.
    He is arrogant.
    He is overconfident.
    He huffs intellectual garbage.
    [If this were Yom Kippur, he would be wise to confess these flaws, among many others.]
    He is not stupid.

  12. 12.

    Ruckus

    @Princess:

    Amir said it perfectly.

    And remember money doesn’t buy smart and all the intelligence in the world means doodly squat if one parks their head in a rather small, smelly dark place.

  15. 15.

    PaulB

    @Princess:  Not devoid of critical thinking, though motivated more by ego. I ascribe his statements and actions to malevolence.

    I doubt it. I suspect that it’s more simple than that: just a case of massive confirmation bias. It fits into his preconceived notions, so he doesn’t bother to check. He’s done something like this on more than one occasion and on more than one topic.

  16. 16.

    Aussie Sheila

    @Princess: Yes. I agree. He and Peter Thiel and the rest of the libertarian fascist tech bros are the new robber barons of the 21st century. They are a menace, more dangerous  than the older ones because now they control global communication networks.

    To be honest I have never been more uneasy at the general direction of the democratic world. I feel like it must be how people were feeling in the 1930s, only this time we really know how it could all end.

    Once again, thank you Adam for all your work and faithfulness to the struggle of the Ukrainian people.

  18. 18.

    Jay

    Sadly @rogerwaters you are antisemitic to your rotten core. Also a Putin apologist and a lying, thieving, hypocritical, tax-avoiding, lip-synching,misogynistic, sick-with-envy, megalomaniac. Enough of your nonsense.— pollysamson (@PollySamson) February 6, 2023

  19. 19.

    Jay

    Ukrainian figure skater Dmytro Sharpar was killed near Bakhmut.Before the war Dmytro participated in the Youth Olympic Games.russia is sending its troops to kill Ukrainians. It also wants to send its athletes to kill the reputation of Olympics.We must stop them from doing both! pic.twitter.com/nXCCYyFawi— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 6, 2023

  20. 20.

    Jay

    In Kherson Oblast alone, thousands of Ukrainians were put through physical and mental abuse in Russian torture chambers, according to Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets. Two survivors spoke to the Kyiv Independent about what they had endured.https://t.co/RvrLTJV6p5— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 6, 2023

  24. 24.

    sanjeevs

    Western oil sanctions and soaring battlefield costs took a heavy toll on Russia’s finances last month, pushing the government budget into its deepest deficit to start the year in more than a decade.
    Oil and gas revenues nearly halved, dropping 46% in January from the same month last year, according to data from the Russian Ministry of Finance published Monday. Government spending, driven by military purchases, jumped by 59% from last January.

    That left the budget with a deficit of around $25 billion, the statistics showed, marking the worst budget performance at the start of the year in official data going back to 2011. The government has increasingly turned to its rainy-day fund to plug the gap.

    Russian Deficit Soars to $25 Billion on War Spending, Oil Embargo – WSJ

  25. 25.

    Aussie Sheila

    @sanjeevs: This is good news, but I am worried about the straws in the ‘news winds’ that appear to be softening us up for a long war lasting years against the Russians in Ukraine.

    I am worried that the US and NATO are not preparing to assist Ukraine to victory rather they seem to be ‘feeding’ just enough wheaponry  to keep the Ukrainian army going, until both sides are exhausted enough to allow someone to force some kind of ‘stalemate’ on the situation.

    Am I wrong, overthinking it?

    If we aren’t careful, a recession this year in enough countries could ‘cool’ some western governments’ enthusiasm for continuing to assist Ukraine. This is the worst timeline ever.

  26. 26.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Aussie Sheila: To be honest, I think he’s grieving, heartbroken over the lost mass adulation that he once rejoiced in.

    In this he’s very like the rest of the billionaire tech bros, who were accustomed to being viewed as demigods in virtue of their vision and shaping power over the future. Now that popular views of their worth and accomplishments have soured, they have, nearly unanimously, reacted with resentment and scorn towards the ungrateful and ignorant public who they regard as too illiterate to comprehend, or correctly value, the boons that they confer upon the human race.

    This is the “legend-in-their-own-minds” culture of grievance and faux meritocracy (their technical accomplishments are objectively rather modest) that Musk has bought into, which assimilates him to people such as Thiel, Zuckerberg, Bezos, etc. It’s a kind of response to heartbreak, characteristic of low-introspection men who will never really understand themselves.

    I’m actually beginning to appreciate the sagacity of Dorsey and the rest of the Twitter founders, who got out of the shitrain clean, and made billions for themselves and their shareholders in the process. Now that is vision.

  27. 27.

    Jay

    @Aussie Sheila:

    Am I wrong, overthinking it?

    Yup. There is a lag effect, between what the “2nd Army” in the world can do, and what Ukraine can do. The time frame between “Kiev in 3 days” and Bakmut has been almost a year. “The West” has gone from believing Ukraine will fall, to Ukraine will win, but there is a shitload of shitheads who have clung to being wrong and the Quisling media keeps amplifying their voices.

    If we aren’t careful, a recession this year in enough countries could ‘cool’ some western governments’ enthusiasm for continuing to assist Ukraine. This is the worst timeline ever.

    LMFAO, a production facility near me just hired a “Sith Lord”, syrously, black “kilt”, top. hoodie, gloves, etc, (yes, lightsabre), at $25 an hour and full benifits after 90 days to put screw A into slot B.

    sucks to be in “Masters of the Universe” tech, but they havn’t cut CEO pay or options, funny that, despite record profits and a looming recession,,……..

  28. 28.

    Aussie Sheila

    @Carlo Graziani: Yes, I think that is right, but they are nevertheless a bunch of very powerful, rich and dangerous Aholes.

    Pollies of all stripes still seem to love themselves some tech bro cred, and the lack of legislative curiosity into and about, their many business interests makes me so mad.

    Where is the full investigation into Facebooks’ interference in the 2016 election?
    Where is law enforcement when Musk refuses to pay his bills?

    Where is the pushback against the egregious Clegg and his announcement that FB will allow that criminal back on?
    Nothing. Crickets.

  29. 29.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Aussie Sheila: I think we have seen US MSM reporting over the past several months that a protracted war is exactly the assessment of the Biden Administration, & likely motivated the odd comments in Nov. by Gen. Milley that the war can only end via negotiations, because outright military victory may not be possible.

    Now, this assessment may be too pessimistic, should not be aired publicly (certainly not suggestions about negotiations) even if it is the best current assessment by the US DoD, & that is no conceivable way to coerce Putin onto the negotiation table w/o a series of major Ukrainian battlefield victories akin to Kupyansk/Kherson 1st.

    I think the concerns driving the assessment is that the Russian campaign against Ukrainian power infrastructure is hampering Ukraine’s domestic defense industrial capacity, while the defense industrial capacity of NATO countries is not being ramped up fast enough (or high enough) to adequately sustain Ukraine in a protracted high intensity conflict.

  30. 30.

    Aussie Sheila

    @YY_Sima Qian: That is exactly my fear.

    This war needs to be resolved in Ukraine’s’ favour this year. Next year is a US presidential election. I tremble at the pressure that might be put on Ukraine to ‘ease up’ while that is fought out.

    I still maintain that the presence of Putin agents in the governments of many European states cannot be ruled out as a reason for all the foot dragging. I am not a conspiracy theorist in any sense of the word, but the constant news of arrests of Russian agents in European capitals and the parlours state of the UK Tory party and its Russian donors fills me with dread for Ukraine.

  31. 31.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Aussie Sheila:

    Am I wrong, overthinking it?

    You are not.  In Perun’s latest vid ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qj9HD8MdAFs ) he imagines a scenario where the US delivers

    1. long-range fires: GLSDB, ATACMS, cruise missiles
    2. maneuver weapons in *quantity) not 100 Bradleys, but 1000 Bradleys
    3. and trains up 40-50k UA soldiers, in the US, to act in combined arms fashion.

    #3 would take 9-12mos, but the idea being: if the war isn’t over by then, well …. those 40-50k UA soldiers will arrive,with their equipment, and open a can of whoop-ass on the Russians.

    He states that he’s very well-aware that this isn’t going to happen, but …. well, he thinks that this is what needs to happen.  Along with @oldster:, the portents indeed “make me almost sick with anxiety”.

  32. 32.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Aussie Sheila: Well, regardless of the long term assessment, what needs to be done in the short to medium term (through at least mid-2024) is the same: get a much help to Ukraine ASAP, from as many sources as possible. The rest is dictated by what happens on the battlefield. Worry about the long term later.

  33. 33.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Aussie Sheila: Kofman is a remarkable analyst, and his knowledge and penetration are extremely helpful for clearing away intellectual underbrush, and focusing on the central aspects. So his views on the likely near-term progress of the war deserve respect and attention. It is nonetheless the case that there is an enormous degree of uncertainty that attends such forecasts. Moreover, war always offers the capacity for surprise, and by its very nature, surprise cannot be forecast.

    In this case, the potential source of surprise that I would point to is that at no point in this war has the UA bet its fortunes on a suicidal contest on equal terms with the Russians. Instead, they have demonstrated an impressive capacity for strategic patience, husbanding strength for decisive opportunities, and shaping conditions so as to create and make the most of those opportunities. This is the story of the Dnipro Bear Trap, which kicked the Russians out of Kherson, and also the story of the Kharkiv offensive.

    The UA is run by military intellectuals of the highest caliber and professionalism, who have total support from their government, manage armed forces that benefit from massive national national support, and work towards clear, consensus-driven war aims. If you will review this statement as you contrast it to the state of Russian political-military command, you will see a rather decided advantage of the Ukrainians too intangible to register in quantitative material assessments such as Kofman’s. You will also find a potential source of military surprise.

  35. 35.

    Aussie Sheila

    @Carlo Graziani: Thank you for that. I have never underestimated the intelligence, resolve and courage of the Ukrainian people and their army, but even with all that I worry about the sheer numbers Russia can throw at this. After a while quantity becomes quality. It is terrible to watch and infuriating to think that everything isn’t being done to assist in victory for Ukraine, on its terms, everywhere its country is occupied. I couldn’t care less what happens to Russia afterwards. I am sick of reading crap about Russias future.

    Let the Russian people come to their own rescue.

  40. 40.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy: The GLSDB w/ 150 km range can have a great impact disrupting Russian logistics & command & control. Much will depend on the qty of supply. It also depends on if Russia can effectively jam GPS signals that far behind their lines. The gliding GLSBD will lose much of the accuracy if relying upon inertial navigation system only. The extended range of the GLSDB over the the M30/31 rocket is achieved via gliding (thus longer time to target) & smaller warhead. Still great against stationary ammo dumps, though.

    As for the armor, the Ukrainian Army does not need 1K Bradleys. It needs 1K relatively modern infantry fighting vehicles w/ decent protection (even modernized Soviet era BMP2s), & relatively modern main battle tanks (even modernized Soviet era T-72s) to constitute a few mechanized corps for combined arms offensive. However, what I am seeing is NATO countries scrounging up tanks in the dozens (rather than hundreds). Germany & Denmark can only send refurbished Leopard 1s on short notice, & then only a few tens.

    Whether a 40 – 50K mechanized force is enough depends on how depleted the Russian Army is.

    Any NATO(-ish) country not named Finland, Poland, & the Baltics can send their entire inventories of armor & artillery to Ukraine, & rebuild them later at leisure. Russia (if still whole) will be a greatly reduced threat for quite some time after its defeat. I don’t think any NATO country not name the US is planning to fight China, & even for the US one would hope no war scenario involves the US Army playing a significant role.

  41. 41.

    Chetan Murthy

    @YY_Sima Qian: Your second para: yes, I think that what Perun meant, is that absent a massive number of tanks, at least a massive number of Bradleys is 100% doable, and the US should get its ass out of gear and do it *now*.

    It has  been … *disappointing* to see NATO countries that were beating on Germany turn around and …. plead “oh our tanks are inoperable” so they can’t deliver ’em.

    As happened back during the wars in former Yugoslavia, I feel like we’re learning that Europe really does need for America to be their policeman.  I guess it’s better than the place being an armed camp.

  42. 42.

    Aussie Sheila

    @Omnes Omnibus: In some circumstances it does. It doesn’t make the Russians smarter, better strategists or better fighters. But without significant upping of more and better weaponry to Ukraine the sheer numbers of ‘men’ that can Russia can throw at this meat grinder can make a difference not in Ukraine’s favour.

    A country of 140 million people has immensely larger resources than a country of less than half that number.

    That is why the equipment and hardware is so important now, not some indeterminate time in the future.

  45. 45.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay: I have a feeling the modernized Soviet era kit from former Warsaw Pact countries will be relevant to Ukraine (as they have been to date) than the much hyped US/Western European kit, at least as far as mechanized equipment is concerned. Western kit just get much greater play in Western MSM.

  46. 46.

    Aussie Sheila

    @YY_Sima Qian: Is this kit good enough for Ukraine to mount successful offensives? A rhetorical question not asked in jest. I have no doubt if true, UA will make the most of it, but this war must be shortened. The suffering of innocent people and the destruction of the means of civilised life in that country must be brought to a speedy end.
    In addition to the obvious point above, a very big painful lesson needs to be given to revanchism everywhere.

  47. 47.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    @Aussie Sheila:

    Years ago, faced quantity, and semi quality.

    Blackwater trained. (US PMC with State Department backing)

    We had quality. No real UNSC support. Outnumbered 150:1. We didn’t have tanks, they did. Our “scariest” weapon was a M113 with a TOW launcher for 2 missiles. We had 6 of them. They had 52 T-64’s and T-72’s.

    Still no real contest. We had “quality”.

    When we returned home, we got “sued” by a bunch of Nazi’s, for stopping an ethnic cleansing.

  48. 48.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: Perhaps the analogy that people have in mind is the 1939-1940 Winter War between the Soviet Union and Finland, in which the initial humiliation of the Red Army by the qualitatively superior and better-motivated Finnish army was eventually reversed through massive material superiority.

    It’s not really a great guide, though. While the Russians outnumbered the Finns by “only” 2:1 in personnel, they held an estimated tank advantage between 100:1 and 200:1, and an aircraft advantage of over 30:1 (source: Wikipedia). The Finns also had no allies, and no outside weapons supplies. The Soviets had total freedom to screw up, reset, and drive on past their screw-ups at no lasting consequence.

    The Ukrainian situation could not be more different. The Ukrainians not only know how to make the Russians pay for their blunders, but also fight them on nearer even terms, with allied support and weapons supply from nations massing industrial strength vastly eclipsing that of Russia. So the quantity-as-quality argument is not a particularly great predictor of current outcomes, in my view.

  49. 49.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy:

    As happened back during the wars in former Yugoslavia, I feel like we’re learning that Europe really does need for America to be their policeman.  I guess it’s better than the place being an armed camp.

    I think we are simply witnessing just how incredibly wasteful/parasitic the transatlantic MIC has become. 2 decades of rapid consolidation has turned the MIC into an oligopoly. While Western Europe’s defense spending has not been high as % of GDP, they are not low in absolute terms. They have just not been getting large bang for the buck. The US spends quite a bit higher, to the extent of crowding out social welfare in government expenditure (a mistake Western Europe has not made), but the US military is suffering from less than ideal readiness & inadequate maintenance (not to mention recruiting woes), especially USN & USAF. Meanwhile, stockpiles of precision guided munitions are inadequate due to the “Just In Time” philosophy, & unit costs high due to the small production runs.

    US/European weapons manufacturers should not be allowed to profiteer off the war in Ukraine. Forget their margins, dividends & stock prices. Issue procurement contracts at cost + some low % of margin, government subsidies only toward expanding capacity.

  50. 50.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: I don’t think Russia has the chance to ground down Ukraine on the battlefield to end the war on terms favorable to Russia, unless the Western countries lose their determination to support Ukraine (what Putin is surely hoping for). However, I think the Biden Administration has assessed that the war will not likely end quickly (w/in 2023) on terms favorable to Ukraine. They certainly could be wrong.

  51. 51.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    T-72MB’s kick ass compared to T-72 Opilots, on part with Twardy’s, still compared to a Leopard, Chieftain II, (or even 1) let alone a non-export Abrams, no real contest on paper.

    but that’s part of “the thing”, “on paper”.

  52. 52.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay: Are you referring to the action by 2nd Princess Patricia’s Canadian Light Infantry against the Croatian Army in Medal Pocket in 1993?

  54. 54.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Jay: This is in tonight’s update too. Is it too much to ask that you actually read what I post before you start posting the exact same things in the comments?

  55. 55.

    Jesse

    @Amir Khalid: has there been any follow-through by Musk about this? I mean, it’s one thing to fall for nonsense. But after it’s been refuted, it’s another thing to just do nothing, or even double down.

  58. 58.

    Geminid

    I found out what former Arizona Senator Jeff Flake has been up to. He’s serving as U.S. Ambassador to Turkiye. His visit to the USS Nitze in Istanbul February 3 was covered in articles in the Jerusalem Post and ODNI News, a publication of the US. Sixth fleet based in Naples, Italy. Ambassador Flake:

        …made no connection between the ship’s presence and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. Rather, Flake described the visit as an opportunity to strengthen a NATO relationship.

    “Turkey is a highly valued NATO Ally,” Flake said in a Sixth Fleet news release. “Nitze’s visit is an opportunity to further strengthen our vital and longstanding relationship with Turkey”

    JPost

    The Jerusalem Post article said the Nitze was seen operating in the Black Sea, but the destroyer couldn’t have been there long, because after a port call at a Turkish naval base on the Sea of Marmara it has already rejoined the George H.W. Bush carrier group at Piraeus, Greece.

  59. 59.

    Geminid

    @Geminid: There was another official US visit to Turkiye recently, this one by Treasury Undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence Brian Nelson. The Jerusalem Post reprinted a Feb.4 Reuters article saying Nelson had met with Turkish officials in Ankara and Istanbul to ramp up pressure on Turkiye to ensure enforcement of U.S. curbs on Russia.

    Turkiye has not joined the larger sanctions regime but maintains that it does not allow shipments of vital electronics etc. A US official differed on this:

        In meetings in Ankara and Istanbul, Nelson highlighted tens of millions of dollars of sales to Russia that raised concerns, the official said.

    The Reuters article said that Nelson made similar stops at othe nations in the region including the United Arab Emirates.

  61. 61.

    daveNYC

    Quantity isn’t quality, but it can substitute in a pinch depending on what your goals are and how disposable you consider your forces.

    And the slow ramp up of weaponry is highly annoying.  Weapon System X that will take Y months to train up on and deliver, but did we start training Ukraine on these things Y months ago?  Even the US response has been very piecemeal.

  62. 62.

    Geminid

    @YY_Sima Qian: I read a few months ago that Turkish exports jumped a very substantial amount after this war broke, too much to be accounted by an increase in that country’s own products. They were reexporting imported Russian goods. A similar flow is likely occurring in reverse.

    The US has taken a private approach on these matters, apparently concentrating on stopping provision of more strategic goods to Russia, and not haranguing allies publically. Although I imagine sanctions on Turkish companies are on the table

    Ukraine similarly restrains its complaints about Turkiye, preferring to characterize the glass as half full rather than half empty.

  63. 63.

    Traveller

    If this is entirely inappropriate, please delete. I was arguing over on my travel blog that God smiles every time a Russian is killed. Some people agree with this premise of mine, others disagree but it was the discussion for this evening.

    I then ran across this little piece of brutality that rather startled me, but I do have thought out and strong feelings about the ability of underlying troops to kill their commanders. Not always a popular position, but be that as it may, this was my post over on my travel blog.

    ^^^^^^
    Yikes… I spoke too soon, Russian soldiers hacked to death a commander with an axe… Really kind of a terrible, terrible video from telegram. Scroll halfway down the story and there is the telegram video…it is short but brutally terrible. Hummmmm
    https://en.socportal.info/en/news/po…ndira-toporom/

    So God has a reason to smile again

    Best Wishes, Traveller (I will not post this kind of content again. Apologies)​

  64. 64.

    Traveller

    I messed up the ability to link again after an edit…maybe this is just as well. The content is there but somehow the link is unfix-able. Best Wishes, Sorry​

  65. 65.

    Another Scott

    @daveNYC: I take the Pentagon folks at their word, that they’re getting stuff to Ukraine so that they can use it as quickly and efficiently as possible.  DoD knows logistics better than just about anyone.

    There was even a story on NPR yesterday that Erdogan said earthquake aid was going to have to be coordinated or it would make things worse.  And that’s easy to see – if country X decides to send 20,000 tents to an airport and clogs up shipping and receiving and warehouses and transport trucks, then it will make getting food and rescue equipment and generators where they need to go more difficult.

    And there are always manpower limitations even if one has the equipment.  And only 24 hours in a day.

    This stuff is hard.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  67. 67.

    Bill Arnold

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    Both Turkiye & the UAE (along w/ Hong Kong) have been main conduits for sanction evasion.

    Those countries need to pay a price for profiteering from war sanctions evasion. At the very least, a financial price, that seriously hurts both those directly involved and those who deliberately enabled them. Doesn’t matter that they have not officially signed on; taking profits from such evasion is supporting a genocidal invasion for money, and is evil.

  68. 68.

    Traveller

    @Bill Arnold: ​
    &nbsp Nice Mr. Arnold!

    But there are not many people here that are pro Putin, or that devoutly wish for the Russians to win this war and rejoice, somewhat, at seeing Ukrainian dead.

    This is not true everywhere however, and so from time to time I like to needle these people and throw them off balance a little, but, as I think about it, seeing Russian dead at this stage of the war had become exhausting. So I suppose I make fun of it.

    Still, I fear that we are going to have to see lots more Russian dead, and I mean lots, before we see a conclusion to this Russian foolishness and folly.

  69. 69.

    PaulB

    @Traveller:   I was arguing over on my travel blog that God smiles every time a Russian is killed. Some people agree with this premise of mine, others disagree but it was the discussion for this evening.

    Posting flamebait will always lead to discussion. It rarely leads to anything of value, though. We have already had the experience of people posting flamebait in these threads. I respectfully request that you not add yourself to their number.

  70. 70.

    Traveller

    @PaulB: I supposed I have apologized for this, and yet today the story has migrated into the general press so…there is the honest question of…may front line troops rebel against their officers?

    It is to be remembered that Captain Bligh was honourably acquitted at his courts martial  and generally did quite well, even garnering an a note of merit from Admiral Nelson himself after the Battle  of Copenhagen …but then, ultimately, faced a new rebellion as Governor of New South Wales.

    Conversely, Fletcher Christian did quite poorly, apparently shot by natives while working a pond next to the house of his pregnant wife.

    So mutiny is not so simple….as were the questions of new mass mobilizations by the Russians, What does this mean? And of course, the unanswerable, Where is God in all of this?

    I did not mean the post as flame bait….at least not here. Tweaking other people’s noses elsewhere remains a a reserved privilege.  Best Wishes, T

  71. 71.

    Bill Arnold

    @Traveller:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragging is the current term in English.
    Many examples of fragging of officers, including the current Russian/Ukraine war. This one was eye-catching.

    World War I
    According to General Frank Percy Crozier, an unpopular British sergeant was killed when one of his men came up behind him and dropped an unpinned hand grenade down his trousers.

    (That one made its way into popular culture, if it hadn’t been already. (Including a panel in the 200AD Song of the Surfer comic, I was informed several years ago.))

Comments are closed.