Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Innocent people do not delay justice.

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

Following reporting rules is only for the little people, apparently.

When you’re a Republican, they let you do it.

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

The poor and middle-class pay taxes, the rich pay accountants, the wealthy pay politicians.

Relentless negativity is not a sign that you are more realistic.

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

The unpunished coup was a training exercise.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

Boeing: repeatedly making the case for high speed rail.

Polls are now a reliable indicator of what corporate Republicans want us to think.

Dear Washington Post, you are the darkness now.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

We’ve had enough carrots to last a lifetime. break out the sticks.

It’s the corruption, stupid.

This isn’t Democrats spending madly. This is government catching up.

If a good thing happens for a bad reason, it’s still a good thing.

“Perhaps I should have considered other options.” (head-desk)

A thin legal pretext to veneer over their personal religious and political desires.

A snarling mass of vitriolic jackals

“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.”

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 352: We’ve Got Count Corrected

War for Ukraine Day 352: We’ve Got Count Corrected

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

It has been a long week and I have something I have to do this evening. So tonight’s update will be brief(er) than usual. We are also all corrected on what day it is in regards to Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s re-invasion thanks to lowtechcyclist.

Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!

The fifth day of this week is coming to an end. In some ways, a very hard week, but a very meaningful one for sure.

I want to emphasize a few things after the results of this week.

He held another meeting of the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief today. It was a busy meeting.

The situation on the front line was examined in detail, in particular in Donetsk region –Bakhmut and other hot spots. Tough areas.

We reviewed the situation with the supply of weapons, the general situation with the defense of the state at the Staff meeting.

We are already preparing for the new “Ramstein” – in particular, we talked about it. About new defense options that we should open for Ukraine together with our partners.

The second important thing this week is our diplomatic marathon.

London, Paris, Brussels – everywhere these days I spoke about how to strengthen our troops. There are very important agreements and we have received good signals.

This applies both to long-range missiles and tanks, and to the next level of our cooperation – combat aircraft. But we still need to work on this.

I was very pleased to hear and see that our boys in the UK are rapidly learning to drive the Challengers.

I was very happy to see how eager the British were for us to win. All this is inspiring.

I am grateful to the Prime Minister, the British Parliament and all British people. And, of course, His Majesty the King.

A fundamental meeting was held in France with President Macron and Chancellor Scholz. The three of us had a conversation, and it’s the right conversation.

It’s wrong to disclose its details, but we can say we heard each other. France – Ukraine, Germany – Ukraine. Partners have heard our position, our arguments.

There will be more support.

And I thank Mr. President and all the French, Mr. Chancellor and all Germans for that.

Understanding that the protection of Ukraine is the protection of the interests and our partners is felt.

Brussels. The meeting of the European Council and our special format of negotiations after the meeting. The negotiations with EU leaders not only within the framework of the European Council, but also within the framework of ad hoc meetings that took place after the summit. In general, I met with all the leaders of the European Union.

And now, our joint task is to take all that we talked about and agreed upon and transform it into concrete delivery, concrete documents, and concrete new lines of cooperation.

The third is the European Parliament.

It was not just my address as the President of Ukraine, but it was a symbolic moment. A certain valuable summary of the path we have taken in relations with the European Union. And the beginning of the new stage. When Ukraine is no longer a guest or partner from outside the EU in the European Parliament, the European Council and other institutions of the European Union. When Ukraine becomes a full part of the European Union.

This week I said many words of gratitude to our allies and partners – everyone who helps us. And now I want to say words of gratitude to you, Ukrainians.

It is always an honor for me to represent Ukraine, and I am proud of our beautiful and strong people.

You have heard and seen how Ukraine is welcomed. It’s what we all did together. It’s how you are welcomed.

I’m proud of Ukrainian courage. I’m proud of Ukrainian resilience. I’m proud of Ukrainian effectiveness.

I’m proud of all of you who fight and work for our country! Who supports the front and the state. Thanks to all of you!

Of course, today, I want to mention our pilots, all our Air Force fighters, everyone who defends the Ukrainian sky.

So far, unfortunately, we cannot shoot down all Russian missiles. But all those dozens of missiles that we shoot down every time during heavy airstrikes are hundreds of lives saved every time and it is saved infrastructure. That which gives life to the people.

I thank you, Air Force! And we will do everything to ensure that you have modern and efficient wings!

Historical results for Ukraine are always closer than they might seem.

Glory to our troops!

Glory to our beautiful people!

Glory to everyone in the world who is determined to fight for freedom together with us!

Glory to Ukraine!

Air raid warnings and Ukrainian air defense were active throughout the day:

The Financial Times has the details:

Russia launched another mass aerial attack against electricity network targets across Ukraine, with one of its missiles flying through Moldovan airspace highlighting the risk of the conflict spilling over.

Russian forces fired 71 cruise missiles, 7 Iranian-supplied Shahed attack drones and 35 S-300 missiles, normally used for air defence, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, the chief of Ukraine’s general staff, said on Twitter. Ukrainian air defences shot down 61 of the cruise missiles and five of the drones, he added.

Zaluzhnyi said two Russian Kalibr cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea had crossed Moldovan and Romanian airspace before flying back into Ukraine. Ukraine’s air defences could have shot down the Russian missiles but decided not to given the potential risk to residents in neighbouring countries, said air force spokesman Yuriy Ignat.

Two people were killed in Poland in November when a missile landed on a farm near the Polish border. Ukrainian initially claimed it was a Russian missile but it turned out to be a stray Ukrainian S-300 air defence interceptor.

The Moldovan ministry of defence on Friday confirmed that one missile had crossed its airspace before heading back into Ukraine.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on his Telegram channel that the Russian missiles’ flight path was a “challenge to Nato and collective security. This is terror that can and must be stopped.”

However, Romania denied a Russian missile had flown over its territory. The Romanian defence ministry said its air force had monitored a missile launched from a Russian warship that crossed through Ukrainian and Moldovan airspace “without ever intersecting, at any given time, the Romanian airspace”.

The nearest point on the projectile’s trajectory was around 35km north-east of the Romanian border, it said. Unlike Moldova, Romania is a member of Nato. Two military jets under Nato command were scrambled to intercept the missile, in case it crossed the border, but they stood down after two minutes, the ministry said.

A Nato official confirmed the Romanian account.

Much more at the link.

The Associated Press has reported that Ukrainian intelligence has caught on to a Russian plan to attack Moldova:

BRUSSELS (AP) — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Thursday that his country has intercepted plans by Russian secret services to destroy Moldova, and Moldovan intelligence confirmed the claim.

Speaking to European Union leaders in Brussels, Zelenskyy said he recently told Moldovan President Maia Sandu about the alleged scheme.

“I have informed her that we have intercepted the plan of the destruction of Moldova by the Russian intelligence,” Zelenskyy said through a translator. He said the documents showed “who, when and how” the plan would “break the democracy of Moldova and establish control over Moldova.”

Zelenskyy said the plan was very similar to the one devised by Russia to take over Ukraine. He added that he did not know whether Moscow ultimately ordered the plan to be carried out.

After Zelenskyy’s comments, Moldova’s Intelligence and Security Service released a statement confirming it has received “respective information from our Ukrainian partners” and said it has also identified “subversive activities, aimed to undermine the Republic of Moldova, destabilize and violate public order.”

“At the moment, we cannot provide more details as there is a risk of jeopardizing various ongoing operational activities,” the statement read, adding that all of Moldova’s state institutions “are working at full capacity and will not allow these challenges to happen.”

Much more at the link!

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Kreminna and Bakhmut:

 

 

 

Someone fired up the Superbonker 9000!

Obligatory:

 

 

The F-22s are back on the hunt!

That’s enough for today.

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

45Comments

  5. 5.

    Spanky

    CHISINAU, Feb 10 (Reuters) – Moldova’s pro-Western government resigned on Friday after a turbulent 18 months in power marked by economic turmoil and the spillover effects of Russia’s war in neighbouring Ukraine.

    President Maia Sandu accepted Prime Minister’s Natalia Gavrilita’s resignation and nominated 48-year-old presidential aide and former interior minister Dorin Recean to replace her.

    Recean, who is expected to quickly win parliamentary approval, said he would press on with Moldova’s bid to join the European Union and revive the economy

  8. 8.

    Alison Rose

    I was glad to hear the positive notes after Zelenskyy’s meeting with Macron and Scholz. You kind of never know with those two, and I suppose we still don’t. Mercurial little minxes.

    I’m no expert (in fact, the furthest from it) but an intercept rate of 86% sounds pretty impressive to me! Feels like if we’d given Ukraine everything they asked for from the beginning, it would probably be 100%.

    This NYT piece about the mayor of Kheron, Halyna Luhova, was an interesting read.

    She’s been almost killed six times. She sleeps on a cot in a hallway. She makes $375 a month, and her city in southern Ukraine has become one of the war’s most pummeled places, fired on by Russian artillery nearly every hour.

    But Ms. Luhova, the only female mayor of a major city in Ukraine, remains determined to project a sense of normality even though Kherson is anything but normal. She holds regular meetings — in underground bunkers. She excoriates department heads — for taking too long to set up bomb shelters. She circulates in neighborhoods and chit-chats with residents — whose lives have been torn apart by explosions.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  10. 10.

    misterpuff

    fighter aircraft…successfully took down a high altitude airborne object off the northern coast of Alaska at 1:45pm…the object was flying at an altitude of 40,000 ft. and posed a reasonable threat to the safety of civilian flight

    Somebody better warn the Aliens that Dark Brandon is taking out all UFOs now whether of extraterrestrial origin or not.

    Thanks GOP bedwetters.

  11. 11.

    Alison Rose

    The Kyiv Independent had their Q&A today for Patreon supporters on life in Bakhmut with their reporter Francis Farrell. Some notes:

    The pre-war population (from 2017 figures) was between 40 and 45 thousand. UNP says there are now around 5.9k still living in the city, including around 200 children. Most people spend the majority of the time either at the Points of Invincibility or in bomb shelters.

    When asked why people would stay in a situation like this, he said the most common is simply practicality, or rather the impracticality of leaving. People have very little money, and would struggle to find a source of income if they did leave. The government pensions they might receive are very low, around $55 a month, up to $72 for kids and people with disabilities. Some who did leave couldn’t make a way for themselves in other cities and ended up returning. The draw of home is hard to resist for people suffering such loss and trauma, and many are also afraid that their homes will be looted while they’re gone. He did say that some of the residents are susceptible to russian disinfo and believe that the invaders are going to come to end the war and save them. But for many of them, the choice to stay is a passive one and feels forced on them by circumstance.

    Further, he noted evacuation is much easier said than done. There’s the money aspect as noted, but also the fact that cars and other vehicles cannot reach most of the city, especially across the river, and very few volunteers are willing to go there anymore. Plus, they cannot force people to leave. Sometimes, they would go and speak to a given person who would say, “Okay, I’ll be ready to leave tomorrow, please come back for me then,” but then they come back the next day and the person has changed their mind. So a lot of volunteers have deemed it a futile effort, and one that is increasingly difficult and dangerous. People who do evacuate generally end up first in a town about 50km away (I couldn’t catch the name) and they might get registered for benefits, but again, it’s a meager amount. And they end up mostly on their own as far as trying to find a place to live and a job. Getting out of Ukraine altogether is far too costly for most people, and he noted that many European cities are not as welcoming as they once were or as people want to think they are.

    One line he said at this point stuck with me: “Who has the money to be a refugee?”

    For the people who stay, there is one general store still open, but but mostly they are dependent on humanitarian aid and a word-of-mouth network about what particular items will be handed out when and where. Some residents will collect food and other items in a cart and then walk 4-5km to distribute it to others or bring it home. People use wood from destroyed homes for firewood, and there is rarely enough water for drinking and other uses. The destruction in Bakhmut is worse than that of Kherson or Kharkiv, because of the length and narrower focus of battle–it’s more akin to Izium.

    There is some tension among the residents, because there is a portion of the population who are russian-speaking and swayed by propaganda. They sometimes show anger or distrust toward Ukrainian troops, which impacts the troops’ mental state as well, because they’re trying to save them and yet they’re being blamed for the war. The troops also worry that some of them who have family in russia might try to feed info about the Ukrainian military to russian sources. Some of these people show a nostalgia for Soviet times, were anti-Maidan, pro-Yanukovych, and they are easily taken in by anti-US, anti-NATO disinfo. They believe the lies about Ukraine wanting to destroy them, and some said they didn’t want to go to spots like Lviv because they would be attacked or jailed for speaking russian. He said it’s not entirely untrue that there is some stigma in western Ukraine against some people in the Donbas region, and that decades-old prejudices have been brought to the surface by the war.

    It was a very informative talk, although also, as you can see, somewhat heartbreaking.

  12. 12.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Alison Rose:

    I need to take advantage of some of their Q&As, etc. for their Patreon supporters (since I’m one), but usually there aren’t enough hours in the day.

    One thing that I was wondering:

    Some of these people show a nostalgia for Soviet times, were anti-Maidan, pro-Yanukovych, and they are easily taken in by anti-US, anti-NATO disinfo. They believe the lies about Ukraine wanting to destroy them, and some said they didn’t want to go to spots like Lviv because they would be attacked or jailed for speaking russian.

    I wonder why more of these folks don’t seek refuge behind the Russian lines, if they feel like that.  My guess is that they really don’t expect that things will be any better in that direction, regardless of their pro-Russian sympathies.

  13. 13.

    japa21

    From the Pfarrar Tweet

    UKR forces report breaking up a desultory RU assault on the O-0528 HWY axis at Dibrova.

    Considering what has been happening to the majority of Russian assaults, I would be rather desultory.

  14. 14.

    Alison Rose

    @lowtechcyclist: They do post the recording of the Q&As on Patreon, usually 2-3 days after, if you want to watch it.

    I’ve wondered the same thing. I suppose some of them feel as though they ARE basically living in russia, or perhaps deep down inside they know it would be worse to move beyond the actual border. Of course I can’t speak with any knowledge at all on the issue.

  15. 15.

    karen marie

    @Gin & Tonic:  I’m wondering if Gavrilita has family in Russia who are at risk or being threatened, or if she’s been compromised in some way.

    Friday’s events come one day after Zelenskyy told European Union leaders in Brussels his country had intercepted a detailed Russian plan to destroy Moldova politically, by breaking down the democratic order and establishing control, as it has attempted to do in Ukraine. He said he informed President Sandu of the plans immediately.

  16. 16.

    Another Scott

    DW.com:

    The former commanding general of the United States Army in Europe, Ben Hodges, said that Ukraine could achieve a quick victory if the West provided swift help with fighter jets.

    He predicted that the defeat of Russia could otherwise take three to five years, given the current level of Western support.

    What the former general said

    “The sooner we deliver them the capability to achieve a decisive outcome, the sooner that [the war] could be over,” he said, arguing that Ukraine could expel Russian forces from its territory by the end of the year if given additional support.

    Hodges told DW’s Ines Pohl that concern about training and runway compatibility issues do not make it “unfeasible” to provide Kyiv with the “capability” to use the aircraft. He praised the UK for being “in the lead” in providing several forms of military support to Ukraine.

    Hodges said he believed that the only “red line” for Washington’s involvement in Ukraine is “boots on the ground.”

    He stressed that Kyiv must retake Crimea to preserve the “international rules-based order” and the “UN Charter.” Hodges added that it is important for Ukrainian ports to maintain access to the Sea of Azov through Crimea.

    Hodges — who presided over US forces in Europe from 2014 to 2018 — said he believed that Russia was attempting to “surge” a new offensive, but added that does not have the capability to launch a “major” one.

    “They don’t have the armored forces, the ability to break through,” he said, adding that this isn’t going to change the “overall operational environment” in Ukraine.

    Kyiv “has enough to limit the Russian success,” he said, adding that this will still be “costly” in terms of casualties and ammunition.

    Another year would be terrible. Another 3-5 years would be horribly worse.

    I expect F-16s to be agreed to in coming weeks. (But I have no special knowledge.) I think people like Hodges talking about it is laying the groundwork with the public.

    Slava Ukraini!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  21. 21.

    Anoniminous

    Heinz Guderian, a dude generally considered to know something about armor warfare, wrote in his book “Achtung – Panzer!’ a tank needs enough armor to withstand anti-tank weaponry at medium range or, about, 400-500 meters. Today a tank is vulnerable out to lock-on acquisition range or, about, 5 kilometers. The Super-Duper Russian “Terminator” is nothing but a big fat target.

  22. 22.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Another Scott: There’s no real reason not to supply F-16s to Ukraine. But portraying them as decisive, war-winning wunderwaffen is over the top. They would face the same challenges from the extremely hostile ground-to-air environment that Russian warplanes face. Their pilots would have one of the scariest jobs in the war. If employed in ground attack or air cover, they would have, to quote Terry Pratchett, “…the life expectancy of a pogo stick tester in a minefield.”

    City air defense could work. But I can’t imagine what Hodges was thinking when he made that bold statement.  Perhaps he was misquoted, or there is some context missing?

  23. 23.

    Jay

    @Anoniminous:

    Heinz Guderian, a dude generally considered to know something about armor warfare

    Post WWII, with the onset of the Cold War, a bunch of the German generals, politicos and scientists got “head hunted”, (even the War Criminals and Genocidists) by “The West”, in part, based on their self promotion and “lying at statistics”.

    a 17lb’r, with just a simple AP round, could punch a hole in any German armour at the front, (except a King Tiger), at 1700 yards, and 17lb’rs were around in 1941. The Brit’s introduced tungsten cored discarding sabot in 1943.

    The “Terminator”, basically an uparmoured BMP 3 turret on a T-72 chassis, is supposed to provide “screen protection” via infantry and high angle guns, to tanks, in an urban situation, based on Grozny I and Grozny II. Vehicle is stationary, in the open, no dismounts, no tanks to protect.

    Reminds me of Steve’s story about the Alaska Work Camp. A-hole tool room attendant wouldn’t issue a tool unless you asked exactly for the tool you needed. EG, 3/16″ box end flare wrench. Rigid 2″ Automatic centering threader for a R-300 CS9.

    Steve got fed up one day, and asked for a “big f/king wrench”.

    They went back and forth a dozen times, with the tool room attendant asking “box”, “crescent”, Pipe”, “Flare” , 2″, 24mm, etc, and Steve responding with “a big f/king wrench”.

    Eventually the tool room attendant gave up and told Steve if he didn’t give him the exact specs of the wrench, he couldn’t give him the right tool for the job.

    Steve responded with “it doesn’t matter, we’re just going to use it as a hammer anyway!”.

  24. 24.

    Jay

    @Carlo Graziani:

    Late model F-16’s  and a “proper load out” would put the Ukrainian Air Force on “par” and a bit more with the RUASF. It would allow them to hit RUASF aircraft from fighters to AWAC’s in Russian and Belorussian airspace.

    The EASA scanned radars would allow a “look down, shoot down”  from a distance, ability on SU-25’s and KA-52’s in the RUASF ground support role, that Ukraine lacks.

    The ELINT suite would help negate a bunch of RUSAF area (altitude) denial weapons.

    You are right, it’s not “wunderwaffen”, but it would change Ukrainian Airspace from being “contested”.

  25. 25.

    Carlo Graziani

    If The Object was travelling at 40,000ft — 12 km — that’s well below the 19km altitude of THE BAWOON. It’s only slightly above the tropopause (10 km, where the stratosphere begins), and definitely at air traffic altitudes. The windspeeds are higher there, so perhaps it was on a hurry-up schedule.

    However, iit wouldn’t be completely surprising if, given the diplomatic catastrophe provoked by THE BAWOON, the PRC authorities ordered it’s altitude deliberately lowered before entry to US airspace, as an invitation to the USAF to shoot it down. It would have been launched about a week earlier, possibly before the political implications sank in with CPC leadership to the point that they could order a launch abort.

    In this scenario, the US sees this thing coming, realizes that it is deliberately lowering its altitude to an operationally senseless level, and interprets the maneuver as a deliberate request to make the problem go away. This they promptly do, obliging by referring to the bogey as The Object (i.e. ” UFO”), rather than as “THE BAWWOON II: REVENGE OF THE CHINESE PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY.”

    I don’t know that this narrative is correct, but it feels plausible, and it’s kind of comforting. Its subtext is that grown-ups are in charge on both sides, and are maneuvering in concert to defuse tensions.

  26. 26.

    YY_Sima Qian

    I would have thought identifying the flying object before shooting down would be advisable. While the 40K ft altituted posed a potential threat to civilian aviation, the skies over Alaska is not exact crowded (unlike the Eastern Seaboard). Civilian air traffic could have been diverted while the object was being identified.

    Moving in the NE direction is also against the prevailing winds over Alaska, so likely not a balloon or dirigible?

  27. 27.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: It is plausible to me. Otherwise very strange that the US would not attempt to identify the flying object before shooting it down.

    It is reported to be cylindrical, so not the same kind of craft as the one last week.

  29. 29.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Jay: The issue is not air-to-air: it’s ground-to-air. Russian ground attack aircraft currently face the worst, most dangerous SAM environment of any air force since the Yom Kippur war. When the UAF enters the air war on equal terms, it will experience a completely comparable SAM (and MANPADS) threat. That’s why the F-16 argument is a bit overwrought. Adjusting the Russian air advantage downwards makes sense. But not acknowledging the new dimension of associated risk does not.

  31. 31.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Jay: Per ABC:

    ABC News Chief Global Affairs Correspondent Martha Raddatz first reported that when fighters were scrambled, the pilots did visuals, got images and said there was no sign the object had propulsion.
    It was described as “cylindrical and silver-ish gray” and seemed to be floating, a U.S. official said.

    Not a drone. And in any event, a drone at that altitude makes no sense — likely visual from numerous airline pilots if it trajectory continues over CONUS, guaranteed provocation and shoot-down.

    Best guess is some kind of stratospheric blimp. No idea why such a design would make sense.

  32. 32.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: Here is a visualzation of the stratospheric winds at 25000 Pa — about 10 km, slightly below The Object, but representative enough. There are clearly places in Southern Alaska where prevailing winds blow Northeast-ish.

  33. 33.

    Jay

    @Carlo Graziani:

    RUSAF aircraft have a 50 km “reach” over Ukrainian Airforce aircraft, with a “fire and forget” ability the Ukrainian Air Force lacks.

    Modern NATO fighter aircraft have automatic ELINT systems that neither Russia or Ukraine has.

    Most modern NATO aircraft can take out “Soviet” air defences long before they have target aquisition or tracking.

    Again, not “wunderwaffen” but a big improvement over what Ukraine has.

  35. 35.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay: Considering the kind of equipment NATO countries have been donating to Ukraine, I highly doubt any of the late model (or recently modernized) F-16s w/ active electronic scanned array radars will be offered, as these will continue to serve as the backbone of many smaller NATO air forces for years to come. More likely they will be older un-modernized C/D models with slotted planar arrays radars, which can still be effective in air to air & air to ground. The most modern RuAF fighters only have passive electronic scanned array radars, which offering advantages in weight saving, power consumption & scanning rate over slotted planner array radars, but not the game changing performance of AESAs.

    In theory, RuAF’s aerial warning & control aircraft should offer a decisive advantage in the air over the UAF, but the RuAF does not seem to be able to take advantage so far.

    I am uncertain as to what role F-16s would play on the battlefield. The RuAF has largely avoided venturing beyond the front lines, content to lob long range air to air missiles at Ukrainian fighters from well outside of the range of Ukraine air defenses. It has not been performing much close air support strikes against ground targets near the front lines. It stopped trying to gain air superiority over the Ukrainian skies since the early stages of the war. Its main role now seems to be using strategic bombers to launch cruise missiles from w/in Belorussian or Russian airspace against civilian targets & civilian/dual use infrastructure. The UAF would need the latest model F-16s w/ AESAs (for long range detection) & the latest model AMRAAMs (for long effective range) to pose a threat to the RuAF bombers & fighters, while minimizing their exposure to Russian air defenses. However, firing air to air missiles into Belorussian or Russian airspace is a politically fraught act (one that Ukraine is more than justified to take), plus the additional risk of hitting civilian air liners. Some NATO countries may be averse to that risk.

    F-16s are not that well suited for close air support, not in the challenging environment posed by Russian air defenses. They can strike targets behind front lines, but HIMARs & M270s can do that just as well using rockets & GLSDBs, at low cost, faster response time, & lower risk.

    The best use of the F-16s may be hitting logistical depots beyond the range of GLSDBs (although that means hitting into Crimea & Russia), and shooting down the attack helicopters that the Russian Army is using for close air support. The obsolescent Ukrainian MiG-29s & Su-27s have been doing the latter throughout the war, but even a C/D model F-16 can do it better, having much better avionics.

  37. 37.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    I am uncertain as to what role F-16s would play on the battlefield. The RuAF has largely avoided venturing beyond the front lines, content to lob long range air to air missiles at Ukrainian fighters from well outside of the range of Ukraine air defenses. It has not been performing much close air support strikes against ground targets near the front lines. It stopped trying to gain air superiority over the Ukrainian skies since the early stages of the war. Its main role now seems to be using strategic bombers to launch cruise missiles from w/in Belorussian or Russian airspace against civilian targets & civilian/dual use infrastructure.

    That is a key area where the F-16’s and other modern NATO fighter jets would have a major impact. RUASF targeting of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.

  38. 38.

    YY_Sima Qian

    An additional thought: F-16s could serve the UAF extremely well in Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses, especially if the more modern electronic warfare & jamming pods are also offered, to degrade the performance of Russian ground & air based surveillance & early warning radars. It can do so much better than the MiG-29s firing HARM missiles, which the UAF has been using (doubt those EW/jamming pods can be integrated onto the MiG-29s).

    That could be a game changer.

  39. 39.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    MIG-29’s firing AGM-88’s have to keep a lock on. Point the active aircraft radar at the target from scan to impact. (Paint themselves as a target for every AD system in 150 nm),

    Modern NATO jets, are “fire and forget” with AGM-88’s.

  40. 40.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay:

    That is a key area where the F-16’s and other modern NATO fighter jets would have a major impact. RUASF targeting of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.

    To reach the Russian bombers at the launch point, the UAF will need the latest models of F-16s, which I doubt are coming.

  41. 41.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay:

    MIG-29’s firing AGM-88’s have to keep a lock on. Point the active aircraft radar at the target from scan to impact. (Paint themselves as a target for every AD system in 150 nm),

    Modern NATO jets, are “fire and forget” with AGM-88’s.

    Are you sure? I think HARMs have passive sensors to detect & home in on radar or jamming emissions, E/G models also have mm-wave active radar for terminal guidance, they are not designed to be cued by a fighter’s fire control radar. Its 3 operating modes (Pre-Briefed, Target of Opportunity, & Self-Protect) are all fire & forget. UAF MiG-29s are probably using HARM as a sensor to detect Russian AD radars, before firing at the targets (Target of Opportunity). This does place the launching aircraft w/in range of the AD systems.

    F-16s would be able to better take advantage of the Pre-Briefed mode of engagement, or cooperative engagement capabilities.

  44. 44.

    Adam L Silverman

    @MillMan: Hersh is wrong and has long ago sacrificed his reputation and earned a new one as a well known conspiracist and crank. I have not seen Bennett’s claims, but he is close with Putin, so keep that in mind.

  45. 45.

    Geminid

    @MillMan: When “anti-war” people started citing this purported Bennett statement, I saw pushback by people claiming that this is not what Bennett actually said. People were quoting the original Hebrew to show this. But there was no possibility of Ukraine agreeing to a ceasefire at that point anyway. At the time, I thought Putin was just playing with Bennett.

    I have not read the interview (it’s long, like 6 hours long), but translated excerpts I have read sounded self-serving. I would expect that, as Bennett clearly intends to reenter electoral politics at some point.

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