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You are here: Home / Healthcare / COVID-19 Coronavirus / COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Monday / Tuesday, Feb. 13-14

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Monday / Tuesday, Feb. 13-14

by Anne Laurie|  February 14, 20236:44 am| 44 Comments

This post is in: COVID-19 Coronavirus, Foreign Affairs

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COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates:  Monday / Tuesday, Feb. 13-14 13

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Vaccines work.
Despite what thousands of paid Twitter blue checks might want you to believe, vaccines work. https://t.co/fwsHmsOjam pic.twitter.com/orQXjdYZKO

— Elisabeth Bik (@MicrobiomDigest) February 12, 2023



COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates:  Monday / Tuesday, Feb. 13-14
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COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates:  Monday / Tuesday, Feb. 13-14 1

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‘This is an account that should be heard of an important struggle: the struggle of a large group of experts who came together at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic to warn the world about the risk of airborne transmission and the consequences of ignoring it.’ https://t.co/uHTlgiKqEv

— Thomas (@tom___green) February 12, 2023

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates:  Monday / Tuesday, Feb. 13-14 2

… As COVID ripped across China and filled emergency wards, privileged patients cut hospital queues because they knew someone, offered a bribe or paid people with connections, said three people who accessed care through such means and seven doctors in six cities.

The practice has long been commonplace in navigating an under-resourced Chinese health system that was severely stretched after Beijing abruptly ended its zero-COVID restrictions in early December, with widespread reports of packed hospitals and mortuaries.

China had only 4.37 ICU beds per 100,000 people in 2021, compared with 34.2 in the United States as of 2015, according to a paper by Shanghai’s Fudan School of Public Health.

Connections can take the form of the patient being a government official, connected to one, or being related to a medical worker, the doctors said.

“The higher and more senior your connection, the better the treatment, or the easier the queue-jump. If you know the head of the hospital, then there won’t be trouble getting a bed,” a Shanghai doctor said…

China keeps the cost of medical care low to make it accessible, meaning many doctors are chronically underpaid and the profession struggles to attract staff, which leads to longer queues for care, experts and doctors say.

In 2020, 546,657 new medical workers joined the system, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the fewest since 2017.

“You get 10,000 yuan ($1,463.70) to 15,000 yuan a month; what kind of money is that for the long hours and the expertise?” said a trainee doctor in wealthy Shanghai, adding that physicians are often in their mid-30s by the time they qualify for such a salary. “It’s humiliating.”

In smaller cities, new doctors can earn as little as 3,000 yuan to 5,000 yuan a month, said two doctors in a city in Sichuan province…

Access-granting gifts such as expensive tea and red packets with money are often given to the lead doctor, but also sometimes to the head nurse and the person who made the connection. That can lead to a total care bill that is double the official medical cost, said two people who recently made under-the-table offerings.

“For many of the doctors in hospitals, their main income is not from their basic salary, it’s from grey income, the red envelopes they receive from the patients, despite the crackdown on corruption in the healthcare sector,” Huang said.

For those without connections, payments to middlemen, known as “yellow cows”, can help.

During China’s recent COVID surge, social media was abuzz with talk of agents asking 4,000 yuan to 5,000 yuan to arrange a hospital bed, with comments on whether payment had been worth it and also on the fairness of such access.

Doctor appointments are cheaper.

One agent who claimed in an advertisement to be able to access any doctor in any Shanghai hospital said it would cost 400 yuan to jump the queue for an appointment with a leading physician in a top-ranking hospital.

Reuters was not able to confirm whether the agent would have delivered that result.

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates:  Monday / Tuesday, Feb. 13-14 3

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COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates:  Monday / Tuesday, Feb. 13-14 4
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COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates:  Monday / Tuesday, Feb. 13-14 5

but very much age dependent. Sky-high in elderly, already 4-5% in 70-79 year olds. And effect very visible of start vaccination campaign (right before / at the start of the third period)https://t.co/n22BnineCR I am glad we put the breaks on this virus, even if it was hard…. pic.twitter.com/ks1R9WQvbC

— Marion Koopmans, virology; emerging infections (@MarionKoopmans) February 13, 2023

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates:  Monday / Tuesday, Feb. 13-14 6
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COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates:  Monday / Tuesday, Feb. 13-14 7
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COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates:  Monday / Tuesday, Feb. 13-14 8
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Increased excess deaths were caused mostly by COVID-19 not vaccines!!!

Look at the graph. If vaccines were the cause, why do COVID-19 deaths and excess deaths match perfectly?!!!

And before you cry "corrupt CDC" this is data from South Africa🇿🇦…https://t.co/JvLRrWtcdw pic.twitter.com/083w1Ebj9Y

— Dr. Ian Copeland (PhD) (@IanCopeland5) February 11, 2023

======

A review of 68 vaccine effectiveness studies:
Preserved protection vs hospitalizations and deaths out to 6 months, substantial waning vs infections, especially Omicron; similar pattern with boostershttps://t.co/Ny1HYIBNyF @LancetRespirMed @sbacon20 @CIUSSSnmtl @Concordia pic.twitter.com/pWrjKBl6v8

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) February 11, 2023

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates:  Monday / Tuesday, Feb. 13-14 9
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New Ontario, Canada report of Paxlovid effectiveness shows 44% reduction of hospitalizations, 51% reduction of deaths (point estimates) without being significantly affected by age (67% age 70+) or vaccination statushttps://t.co/b3AQq8tmax @CMAJ pic.twitter.com/3xej0K2xIm

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) February 14, 2023

Startling: 10% of lung transplants in America are performed because of permanent, massive #COVID19 damage. This means people who need lungs for other reasons are competing against an even larger burden of need for the precious few lungs available.https://t.co/fOkazCa3M5

— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) February 14, 2023

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates:  Monday / Tuesday, Feb. 13-14 10
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prioritising the younger persons first (18+) led to less hospitalisations. These were deliberations that needed to be done. Additional factor: the 18+ group is much bigger, therefore would be delayed. https://t.co/vGjL7uPXOz Important studies for evaluations, many more needed.

— Marion Koopmans, virology; emerging infections (@MarionKoopmans) February 13, 2023

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates:  Monday / Tuesday, Feb. 13-14 14
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COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates:  Monday / Tuesday, Feb. 13-14 11
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With millions of people daily shedding #SARSCoV2 in their waste, researchers in Alaska asked what the impact might be on wastewater exposure for marine mammals, & found, "the potential for reverse zoonotic transmission of #COVID19 ."https://t.co/uwBMr7WUc8 pic.twitter.com/6b84ZjrqtW

— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) February 10, 2023

Men apparently are at higher risk of #Covid-related problems than women. A team in Japan has uncovered sex-specific differences in a type of immune cell called regulatory T's, or T-regs. Team found a key subset of T-regs are lost at a faster pace in men https://t.co/q45k6GNPhD

— delthia ricks 🔬 (@DelthiaRicks) February 13, 2023

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COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates:  Monday / Tuesday, Feb. 13-14 12
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The study that examined doctors attitudes on fringe treatments, also explored views of laypeople on Covid. The report documents how political ideology has spilled into areas unrelated to the principles of liberalism or conservatism. Rightwingers equate vaccination w/ "liberalism" pic.twitter.com/XP8P5VPZhz

— delthia ricks 🔬 (@DelthiaRicks) February 11, 2023

It’s Tuesday, so it must be a bioweapon. Tomorrow it will be fake again.

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) February 12, 2023

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Reader Interactions

44Comments

  1. 1.

    NeenerNeener

    February 14, 2023 at 6:51 am

    Monroe County, NY:

    105 new cases on 02/10/23.
    106 new cases on 02/11/23.
    95 new cases on 02/12/23.
    65 new cases on 02/13/23.

    Deaths at 2183, up 12 from last week.
    Hospital beds: we’re down to 4% available now, including 12 ICU beds (a loss of 6 from last week) among 4 hospitals. The largest hospital still has no regular available beds.

    As an older American with health issues, I wish MTG some instant karma. Maybe of the “Herman Caine” kind.

  2. 2.

    Amir Khalid

    February 14, 2023 at 6:59 am

    Malaysia’s Ministry of Health reported 164 new Covid-19 cases yesterday, for a cumulative reported total of 5,039,486 cases. 162 of these new cases were local infections; four new cases were imported. It also reported one death, for an adjusted cumulative total of 36,952 deaths – 0.73% of the cumulative reported total, 0.73% of resolved cases.

    10,015 Covid-19 tests were conducted yesterday, with a positivity rate of 1.6%.

    There were 9,310 active cases yesterday, 91 fewer than the day before. 321 were in hospital. 11 confirmed cases were in ICU; of these patients, six confirmed cases were on ventilators. Meanwhile, 254 patients recovered, for a cumulative total of 4,993,388 patients recovered – 99.1% of the cumulative reported total.

    The National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme (PICK) administered 1,160 doses of vaccine on 13th February: 34 first doses, 63 second doses, 262 first booster doses, and 801 second booster doses. The cumulative total is 72,775,537 doses administered: 28,128,001 first doses, 27,540,083 second doses, 16,307,783 first booster doses, and 799,670 second booster doses. 86.1% of the population have received their first dose, 84.3% their second dose, 49.9% their first booster dose, and 2.4% their second booster dose.

  3. 3.

    kalakal

    February 14, 2023 at 7:04 am

    Am now discovering the joy of Paxlovid mouth. An unpleasant metallic taste, nickel?

    And given the potential alternative absolutely nothing to complain about.

    Now on Day 3 of symptoms, Sinus congestion & runny nose, bad sore throat & mild cough. Fever seems to have pretty ended yesterday. Mrs kalakal similar but a little worse.

    I am so grateful for the vaccines

  4. 4.

    WereBear

    February 14, 2023 at 7:21 am

    No wonder a wingnut’s apparent “thinking” has declined so rapidly. Their brains are embarrassed to be seen with them.

  5. 5.

    Cliosfanboy

    February 14, 2023 at 7:44 am

    @kalakal: I had to take it a month ago when I had COVID.  No side effects from the Paxlovid, but I did have to stop or reduce the dosages of the other drugs I am on normally.   I hope you feel better soon.

    FWIW, I did get rebound COVID afterwards, but it was much milder. It felt like a mild Cold the 2d time around.

  6. 6.

    OzarkHillbilly

    February 14, 2023 at 7:45 am

    China had only 4.37 ICU beds per 100,000 people in 2021, compared with 34.2 in the United States as of 2015, according to a paper by Shanghai’s Fudan School of Public Health.

    I am curious as to why they couldn’t/wouldn’t compare 2021 to 2021.

  7. 7.

    New Deal democrat

    February 14, 2023 at 7:51 am

    BIobot’s Monday update showed a slight increase in particles, concentrated on the Midwest and West. Particles decreased in the Northeast and South. This probably coincides with the final takeover of infections by the XBB strain in those regions. Nationwide this is equivalent to roughly 200,000 “real” cases per day, and is about average for the last 9 months.

    Confirmed cases are down to 35,000. This is getting close to a 12 month low. Deaths are down to 388, about average for the past 10 months. Meanwhile hospitalizations have risen by about 800 in the past few days to 26,800. This is the first increase since a few days into the year, and probably also has to do with XBB finally becoming dominant in all regions.

  8. 8.

    rikyrah

    February 14, 2023 at 7:53 am

    I have said this before, but I am surprised by what I see from here as China’s lack of preparation for post-lockdown😳

  9. 9.

    rikyrah

    February 14, 2023 at 7:54 am

    @kalakal:

    Feel better🙏🏿🙏🏿🙏🏿

  10. 10.

    kalakal

    February 14, 2023 at 8:01 am

    @Cliosfanboy: Thanks for that info.

    I really don’t feel too bad, and do feel better now than the first 24 hours

     

    @rikyrah: Thanks

  11. 11.

    trnc

    February 14, 2023 at 8:04 am

    Covid is the first quantum virus. It both doesn’t exist and is a bioweapon depending on the time of the observation.

    And, of course, the observer.

  12. 12.

    lowtechcyclist

    February 14, 2023 at 8:07 am

    “Americans do not agree about the duty to protect others.”

    Well, we kinda do, but people on the right apparently think our children need to be protected from a biography of Roberto Clemente, rather than actual threats.

  13. 13.

    lowtechcyclist

    February 14, 2023 at 8:09 am

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    I am curious as to why they couldn’t/wouldn’t compare 2021 to 2021.

    They may have had a hard time finding more recent U.S. numbers.  At any rate, it isn’t likely that the number of U.S. hospital beds rapidly declined between 2015 and 2021.

  14. 14.

    OzarkHillbilly

    February 14, 2023 at 8:16 am

    @lowtechcyclist: At any rate, it isn’t likely that the number of U.S. hospital beds rapidly declined between 2015 and 2021.

    I seem to recall (4 whatever that is worth, which ain’t much) reading of the numbers of ICU beds at the height of the pandemic. As to how likely it is or is not, I am not so sure due to the under staffing problems in hospitals of late. One can have a dozen ICU beds but if you don’t have the nurses, you don’t really have the beds.

    ETA: I also recall a number of stories of nurses quitting during the pandemic due to burnout.  Our medical system is strained tho I am certainly not qualified to say to what extent.

  15. 15.

    Amir Khalid

    February 14, 2023 at 8:18 am

    @rikyrah:

    It has the hallmarks of a snap decision made by Xi’s administration without consulting the medical experts.

  16. 16.

    Soprano2

    February 14, 2023 at 8:37 am

    @New Deal democrat:  My city’s wastewater surveillance as of January 30 is still very low, almost as low as the overall lowest point. I’m pleasantly surprised by that considering that the overall vaccination rate around here is under 60%. ETA – that also captures a significant amount of data from surrounding towns, because so many people work in Springfield.

  17. 17.

    Honus

    February 14, 2023 at 8:38 am

    I am repeatedly astounded that there is an entire district of people that vote overwhelmingly for Marjorie Taylor Green.

  18. 18.

    Soprano2

    February 14, 2023 at 8:40 am

    Why am I completely unsurprised that MTG screamed at military briefers. I wonder what their reaction was – they probably sat there stone-faced as the other attendees cringed at her antics.

  19. 19.

    Tim Ellis

    February 14, 2023 at 8:41 am

    @kalakal: Hope you feel better soon! <3 I strongly strongly encourage lots of additional rest for the near future, even after you feel “better” – it can flare back up if you try to resume normal activity levels too quickly, and there is substantial evidence that Long COVID is triggered in part by people trying to “push through” their disease or resume high activity too quickly post-infection (that’s what happened to me; it is life-changingly bad). Get that sleep! :)

  20. 20.

    Tim Ellis

    February 14, 2023 at 8:44 am

    @rikyrah: I think they bought their own hype – they were controlling it remarkably well with their Zero COVID approach (not cost-free but it was working) and put all their effort into that without any exit plan other than “succeed”. When it failed, it failed all at once.

    If the whole planet had had China’s wherewithal we might have contained the thing, but instead we had the biggest dipshits in history running the US at the time so, here we are with the most contagious disease known to science routinely assaulting our immune systems.

  21. 21.

    lowtechcyclist

    February 14, 2023 at 8:58 am

    So now the balloons shouldn’t be shot down because they might contain bioweapons?  The wingnuts sure didn’t seem to consider that with the first one.  They were all gung-ho to shoot it down over Montana, Missouri, or wherever.

  22. 22.

    lowtechcyclist

    February 14, 2023 at 9:02 am

    @OzarkHillbilly:

     One can have a dozen ICU beds but if you don’t have the nurses, you don’t really have the beds.

    Yeah, but that’s a bit harder to quantify.  There probably isn’t a spot in whatever data collection method is used for “we have 12 ICU beds, but currently we only have staffing for 6-8 of them.”

  23. 23.

    Jay

    February 14, 2023 at 9:05 am

    @Amir Khalid:

    It was supposed to be a phased in program of lifting of restrictions gradually, but due to public pressure, exhaustion, costs and a lack of staff, many cities just pulled the plug and others immediately followed.

  24. 24.

    dmsilev

    February 14, 2023 at 9:12 am

    LA County things are getting better slowly but surely. Hospitalizations had been dropping rapidly through late Jan/early Feb, but have plateaued over the last couple of weeks. The plateau is about 675-700 people, half of what it was at the peak in late December. ICU is basically the same pattern, just divide hospitalization numbers by ten. The County Public Health people are cautiously optimistic that the worst is over for this winter.

  25. 25.

    kalakal

    February 14, 2023 at 9:20 am

    @Tim Ellis: Thank you. That’s well worth knowing. I have a strong fear of Long Covid. I shall rely on my natural indolence 😁

  26. 26.

    knally

    February 14, 2023 at 9:22 am

    Nothing relevant to say. I was just impressed with the width and depth of all this info in one place, and wanted to say thanks. (Also, thanks for previous compilations)

  27. 27.

    lowtechcyclist

    February 14, 2023 at 9:51 am

    @knally:

    Nothing relevant to say. I was just impressed with the width and depth of all this info in one place, and wanted to say thanks. (Also, thanks for previous compilations)

    Speaking of previous compilations, where we were, three years ago:

    https://balloon-juice.com/2020/02/14/covid-19-update-thursday-friday/

    AL, thanks for all these threads.  Thanks to you, we jackals have been among the best-informed people on this planet about this plague throughout its brief (so far) history.

  28. 28.

    The Moar You Know

    February 14, 2023 at 10:09 am

    The report documents how political ideology has spilled into areas unrelated to the principles of liberalism or conservatism.

    Disagree profoundly.  A mainstream position of conservative thought for my entire life, all 55 years of it, is that Americans have no duty or responsibility for how their actions affect their fellow citizens.

  29. 29.

    lowtechcyclist

    February 14, 2023 at 10:19 am

    @The Moar You Know:

    A mainstream position of conservative thought for my entire life, all 55 years of it, is that Americans have no duty or responsibility for how their actions affect their fellow citizens.

    That might be so, but it’s always had the proverbial “my freedom to swing my fist ends where your nose starts” limitation.  In the case of this pandemic, even that limitation has gone out the window.  If I breathe my deadly virus at you, they’ve taken the position that it’s not my responsibility to make sure it stops before reaching your nose.  I can swing my fist wherever I damn well please, and it’s your lookout to stay out of the way.

  30. 30.

    matt

    February 14, 2023 at 10:30 am

    @lowtechcyclist: I guess it’s illegal to mention Boston Celtics and Utah Jazz fans in Florida schools now.

  31. 31.

    MisterForkbeard

    February 14, 2023 at 10:34 am

    Well, after three years of avoiding it my house finally came down with it. Oldest daughter came home from school positive on Friday.

    Her sister tested positive yesterday and me today. And I brought home a small flu from my trip abroad, so NY wife and I are suffering from that simultaneously.

     

    At least it seems to be super mild.

  32. 32.

    YY_Sima Qian

    February 14, 2023 at 10:56 am

    On 2/11 the China CDC provided a summary of state of the COVID-19 pandemic in China as of 2/9:

    1. On 2/9, there were 37,611 hospitalized cases positive for SARS-CoV-2 (~ 40% lower than 2/6)
    2. On 2/9, there were 424 COVID-19 cases in severe/critical condition (~ 75% lower than 2/6), 46 w/ severe/critical COVID-19 symptoms & 378 w/ severe/critical co-morbidities
    3. Between 2/3 – 2/9, 912 COVID-19 related deaths were reported at hospitals (~ 72% lower than the previous 7 day period), 27 due to COVID-19 symptoms & 885 due to co-morbidities

    As of 2/9, 3,491.077M vaccine shots have been injected in Mainland China, 1,310.292M individuals have taken at least 1 shot, 1,276.76M individuals have completed their primary courses, & 826.913M individuals have taken at least 1 booster shot. Among the > 60 y.o. cohort, 241.661M individuals have taken at least 1 shot, 230.244M individuals completed their primary courses, & 192.505M individuals taken at least 1 booster shot.

    Taiwan, Hong Kong & Macau do not appear to be publishing daily data dumps, so I am using data from Worldometer.

    On 2/13, Hong Kong reported 167 new positive cases & 4 new deaths. There have been 13,422 total COVID-19 deaths to date.

    On 2/13, Macau reported 0 new positive cases & 0 new deaths. There have been 121 total COVID-19 deaths to date.

  33. 33.

    YY_Sima Qian

    February 14, 2023 at 11:05 am

    @OzarkHillbilly: The Chinese National Health Commission reported that by early Dec. 2022 there were ~ 10 general ICU beds / 100K, which ultimately surged to ~ 15 general ICU beds / 100K in early Jan. (by temporarily converting specialty ICUs into general ICUs). At least in terms of ICU capacity, it would appear a great deal of progress was made during the pandemic preparing for the exit. Nevertheless, the ICUs (& hospital beds in general) were easily overwhelmed because the exit tsunami in China was of extraordinary intensity but very short duration. That meant the peak demand for ICU beds (& hospital beds in general) was still many multiples of even the surged general ICU capacity.

    The intensity of the peak was determined by the transmissivity of the virus. Mobility indices in Chinese cities post-“opening” in Dec. were lower than during the soft lock downs through Nov., as people were staying home having symptoms or having tested positive, or were staying home hoping to avoid infection. Did not stop the vast majority of the residents in each city being infected in the matter of a couple of weeks.

  34. 34.

    Shalimar

    February 14, 2023 at 11:11 am

    @Tim Ellis: Not that Jared Kushner isn’t a massive dipshit, but blaming the Covid rise on just that is giving him a pass for also being evil.  It spread in the 2nd quarter of 2020 because Kushner decided it was mostly killing Democratic voters and intentionally fucked up the response to allow those deaths to continue.

  35. 35.

    YY_Sima Qian

    February 14, 2023 at 11:13 am

    Since the topic of China’s preparedness (or lack thereof) for the exit from “Dynamic Zero COVID” comes up again, I will re-post what I had wrote in A.L.’s COVID-19 update on Jan. 19/20:

    ———————————————-

    I find almost all commentaries on China’s exit from “Dynamic Zero COVID” fail to account for the transmission dynamics of the virus.

    Here are the things that the CCP regime could have done to be better prepared for the eventual exit:

    1. Change the medical advise on vaccination for the most vulnerable – historically extremely conservative & risk averse, doubly so under DZC; as the exit tsunami gathered steam, the advise finally pivoted to encouraging vaccination unless there is clear diagnosed risk; this is the single most important thing the government could have done to achieve a step change in vaccine uptake among the most vulnerable, & entirely w/in its control; the vaccine skeptics were largely beyond reach, except under a hard mandate, & that was proven to be a bridge too far for most of the population (including those who had already taken vaccines themselves)
    2. Roll out 2nd boosters for all, but especially those > 60 y.o., by Autumn 2022 – when the exit tsunami hit in early Dec. most of the population were ~ a year removed from their last booster, even T- & B-cell immunity could have started to fade among the elderly; this is entirely w/in the government’s control, even using the inactivated whole virion vaccines would have been very helpful, data out of Hong Kong & Singapore have shown that, & by last Autumn a number of viral-vector & adjuvants subunit protein vaccines (including an inhalable one) were also on the offer
    3. Fast track the development, trial, approval & deployment of domestic bivalent vaccines (whatever the technology) – a number of state owned & private pharmaceutical companies have been working on bivalent vaccines since at least Spring of 2022, I am aware of only one (an adjuvanted subunit protein vaccine) that is nearing approval today; this is mostly w/in the government’s control, I am not sure what is the challenge of developing an inactivated whole virion vaccine for Omicron BA.1/2
    4. Fast track approval of foreign & domestic drugs & stockpile them before Winter 2022 – Paxlovid was approved in Feb. 2022 & stockpiling could have started then, Molnupiravir was only approved last week & it could have happened months ago, the developers of the promising domestic VV116 drug submitted preliminary request for approval in Jul. 2022 & there has been no movement since; this is entirely w/in the government’s control
    5. Approve foreign mRNA bivalent vaccines & deploy en masse – Fosun Pharma was an early investor in the BioNTech vaccine (even before Pfizer), had exclusive distribution rights w/in Greater China, priority access to 100M doses, had reached agreement to mass produce the vaccine in China in Jun. 2021, & had completed the the China dedicated Stage II trial by end of 2022 in preparation for regulatory approval; the approval never came, & the bulk of Fosun’s allotment was sent to Taiwan, Hong Kong & Macau, instead; this was entirely w/in the government’s control

    Doing the above could have saved hundreds of thousands of lives (my WAG) through the exit tsunami, that is solely on the CCP regime, & IMHO that is where criticism & condemnation should be focused. The reason I put access to BioNTech’s mRNA vaccine last is because Hong Kong’s data has already shown 3 doses of Sinovac is equally effective as 3 doses of BioNTech in preventing hospitalization among the > 80 y.o. cohort. Data out of Singapore showed a bigger gap (4 doses of Sinovac equals 3 doses of BioNTech), but the Singapore study fails to disaggregate by age group, & there it was mostly the elderly that took the Sinovac vaccine (being skeptical of the new mRNA technology). The vaccine skeptics in China would have been even more hesitant w/ the mRNA vaccines, given their worse safety profile (which is not to say they are unsafe) compared to the inactivated whole virion vaccines. Those who refused domestic vaccines in order to wait for the Western mRNA vaccines was a very rare breed. Access to the BioNTech mRNA vaccine would have helped at the margins, but would not have been a game changer.

    The main tools used by the Chinese government to contain Omicron outbreaks have been regular mass screening, rapid & thorough contact tracing, rigorous isolation of positive cases & quarantine of close contacts, health codes restricting intra-regional movement, & large scale soft/hard lockdowns & restrictions on inter-regional movement as back stop. None of the tools are viable once prevalence in the community reaches a certain level, indeed they become a waste of resources at that point.

    There are aspects that were decided by the viral variants (Omicron BA.5.2 & BF.7) & their incredibly rapid transmission dynamic (R0 estimated to be 10 -18, Rt in urban China certainly very high due to the density & the prevalence of multigenerational dwellings), that there is little the Chinese government could have done to mitigate:

    1. Even w/ the highly disruptive methods employed in early to mid Nov., > 50% of cases reported by cities such as Beijing & Wuhan (high hundreds to low thousands per day) were from the community, indicating widespread (geographically, not yet in huge numbers) cryptic transmission, & containment on the verge of failure; as soon as restrictions were loosened further in early Dec., transmission was sure to explode
    2. Mass screenings are only affordable when samples are pooled in large batches; when a significant percentage of batches turn up positive requiring individual retesting, mass screenings become useless; by mid- to late Nov. that was already starting to be the case in Beijing & a few other cities
    3. Contact tracing is only rapid & rigorous when the resources (even the immense resources that the local authorities in China can bring to bear to focus on a single issue) could be focused on relatively few cases; by mid- to late Nov. contact tracing was starting to become overwhelmed in Beijing & a few other cities
    4. Centralized isolation of positive cases & centralized quarantine of close contacts are affordable only when both are relatively few
    5. Given the wide geographic spread across the country in late Nov., the inter-regional travel restrictions & soft lockdowns were so widespread that they had become economically debilitating (risk becoming comparable to the nationwide lockdown in Q1 2020)
    6. Singapore could exit by 4 stages because it exited during Delta, Omicron BA.5.2/BF.7 would have blown right through any attempt at staged opening (see BA.1/2 in Hong Kong, Taiwan & New Zealand)

    When China started to open in early Dec., schools were still in remote learning, masking mandates remained in place, WFH encourage, many manufacturings were operating in “closed loops”, & people largely stayed home as cases surged. Interregional travel complete collapsed. Mobility indices in Chinese cities post-opening in early to mid-Dec. were lower than during mid- to late Nov. under the widespread soft lockdowns. None of that stopped the BA.5.2/BF.7 from sweeping across the population of any given city in ~ 2 – 3 weeks. Not sure what the Chinese government could have done to mitigation transmission, short of continuing w/ soft lock downs, which was clearly untenable, too many among the population were no longer willing to be compliant.

    The Chinese government could not reasonably have expanded ICUs to an adequate extent to accommodate the exit tsunami, in 1 year or 3, since modeling suggested that peak ICU demand would be ~ 10 – 16X of China’s 2019 ICU capacity (5 – 8X of China’s Dec. 2022 capacity). This is also driven by the transmission dynamic of the virus (BA.5.2/BF.7 causing very short but incredibly intense peaks). There is no universe where China (or any other country) could have increased ICU capacity by 10 – 16X in 3 years; the physical space & the equipment would have been mission impossible, the attendant staff even more so. As it was, China managed to double general ICU capacity from 2019 to Dec. 2022, & even managed to surge another 50% in early Jan. (by temporarily converting specialize ICUs), I actually considering it a real unheralded accomplishment, but that meant ICU demand still outstripped supply by 3 – 5X at peak.

    There are things that the Chinese government could & should have done to be more transparent w/ data through the exit tsunami, failure to do so is probably due to a combination of bureaucratic incompetence & intentional obfuscation:

    1. Develop standard for local authorities to regularly release modeling on COVID-19 infections, severe outcomes, & deaths; instead, we have haphazard & irregular disclosures by only some provinces/cities; the only open & regularly updated model has been Baidu’s, & that is heavily weighed toward internet searches
    2. Establish easily accessible portals for people to upload their positive RAT results so that they can be captured by the government reporting system; though most people probably would not have bothered, anyway
    3. Regularly release wastewater testing data at district/county level
    4. Release data on at least weekly basis; while the laws stipulate monthly reporting of Class II infectious diseases, which is COVID-19’s designation in China, & it is fine for other Class II infectious diseases such as AIDS & Hep B, it is inadequate for the rapidly spreading & rapidly evolving SARS-CoV-2
    5. Remove any pressure on doctors WRT assigning cause of deaths; apparently assigning a deaths to COVID-19 required review by health commissions at the municipal level, & they are not staffed handle review of the huge wave of COVID-19 related deaths; of course doctors advised families to accept cause of death as something other than COVID-19, if only to avoid the bureaucratic logjam; this is on top of the political pressure to minimize counting of COVID-19 related deaths
    6. Report the number of deaths of all causes on at least a weekly basis through the exit tsunami, & compared w/ previously years

    Even if China had prepared as well as Singapore, there would be ~ 300K deaths from the 1st couple of waves post-exit. Doing as well as Taiwan, New Zealand, Australia & South Korea, there would be ~ 500 – 700K deaths from the 1st couple of waves post-exit. It was unlikely that China could have performed as well as these other former Zero COVID countries, due to lower vaccine uptake among the most vulnerable (at least compared to Singapore, South Korea, New Zealand & Australia, China in late Nov. 2022 was probably fairly close to Taiwan in Apr. 2022), & lower & less evenly distributed medical resources. My WAG is ~ 1M excess deaths in Mainland China by Apr.

    Criticism toward the CCP regime, whether from Western MSM or the Western China Watching community, have largely focused on the greatly stressed health care system & the huge wave of deaths, which was baked in & impossible (IMO) to prevent upon exit from DZC, or failure to import Western mRNA vaccines, which IMHO is the least impactful among the things the Chinese government could have & should have done to reduce severe outcomes & deaths. As is so often the case, the CCP regime’s critics are myopically focusing their fire on the wrong things, while overlooking the regime’s actual crimes & failures.

  36. 36.

    YY_Sima Qian

    February 14, 2023 at 11:14 am

    @kalakal: Good to hear that you are doing better!

  37. 37.

    kalakal

    February 14, 2023 at 11:36 am

    @MisterForkbeard: Sorry to hear that. Glad it’s mild, matches my experience thus far

  38. 38.

    kalakal

    February 14, 2023 at 11:36 am

    @YY_Sima Qian: Thank you!

  39. 39.

    Interstadial

    February 14, 2023 at 12:13 pm

    Rightwingers equate vaccination w/ “liberalism”

    Republican Death Cult.

  40. 40.

    J R in WV

    February 14, 2023 at 1:18 pm

    So India reports 74 new Coronavirus cases, in a nation with a population measured in the billions.

    While Japan, a tiny nation compared to India, reports 31,703 new cases.

    These numbers do not compute for me, not at all. India must have just stopped accumulating heath-care data, for whatever reason [to make the government look so much better~!] …

    As if Trump was president of India..!!!

  41. 41.

    SomeRandomGuy

    February 14, 2023 at 2:24 pm

    Funny story about airborne transmission, from an unreliable source (me). I didn’t preserve the link, nor did I ever think I’d need to cite it.

    The essay was by a physicist, who reported collaboration with medical experts. They said that medical experts had initially been sure that covid-19 couldn’t be airborne. It was, they declared, too big.

    The physicists weren’t convinced, and pressed the doctors, insisting that there’s absolutely *no* reason a particle (like the covid-19 virus) couldn’t be airborne.

    Part of the difficulty, of course, is physicians knew that they had a different definition of “airborne” than physicists, so they didn’t want to listen to “mere” physicists. And let’s be honest: no one cared if the covid-19 virus could float around like a mote of dust, *unless* it was still viable (able to infect people). So there was a reason for a hard disconnect; doctors didn’t care *if* it could “only” float, but not infect while floating.

    Well… it turns out that the problem was, the epidemiologist’s bible said “smaller than this, maybe airborne, larger, no.” That was the state of the knowledge at the time; to that time, no one had found a larger airborne microbe.

    Physicists knew better regarding sizes and masses, but most doctors didn’t understand either the medical sourcing, or the physics sourcing, you see? And without understanding exactly where the physicists came from, a doctor wouldn’t even be able to speak intelligently on whether size made covid-19 droplet-only or not.

    *And,* since they also didn’t know the medical sourcing, they couldn’t then say “but this was just a statement of knowledge, as it existed until the publication date, so it might be wrong – we should listen to these physics folks….”

    I find it a fascinating troubleshooter’s problem, because the problem is precisely the sort of thing that even a good troubleshooter could get wrong. If you think of the right questions to ask, and the right sorts of questions to ask, you’ll find an answer. If you don’t… well, you won’t. You need to know when and how to ask “why?” to mine this information. This is what separates the men from the real men, the women from the real women, and the furry little creatures from alpha centauri, from the real furry little creatures from alpha centauri.

  42. 42.

    Bill Arnold

    February 14, 2023 at 3:12 pm

    @SomeRandomGuy:
    The paper links the widely cited wired piece, which may have been what you had in mind:
    https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwup-that-helped-covid-kill/
    I guarantee that a few full generations of scientists looked at the public health dogma about airborne spread of viruses, installed recognized that it was BS, because of for instance airborne pollen, which is much much bigger than the previous public health dogma and which is the basis for airborne pollination.; basic biology. Also airborne polllens are allergens. And didn’t try to penetrate the public health dogma bubble, because “stay in your lane” is so very very powerful in many disciplines that want to repel outside influence.
    When I first noticed the disparity between reality and public health dogma re airborne spread of infectious diseases in March 2020 (read much of the then-available literature over a couple of pots of coffee), I was absolutely white-hot furious, and increasingly angry at the dogmatic holdouts who continued to cripple public health responses through 2020. That was even without knowing the origins, as uncovered by the excellent work described in the Wired piece.

  43. 43.

    RaflW

    February 14, 2023 at 4:43 pm

    @lowtechcyclist: “Ban books, absolutely! There’s no constitutional protection.” (Of course there is)
    “Ban guns? The constitution is unambiguously opposed.” (Even Scalia said there’s room for interpretation)

  44. 44.

    rikyrah

    February 14, 2023 at 11:41 pm

    @MisterForkbeard:

    🙏🏿🙏🏿🙏🏿🙏🏿🙏🏿

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