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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 359: A Brief Friday Update

War for Ukraine Day 359: A Brief Friday Update

by Adam L Silverman|  February 17, 20238:16 pm| 46 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

There was a question in last night’s comments by Anonymous at Work:

I figured that much but aside from a drop in daily artillery fire, it’s not stopping RU generals from launching human wave attacks UA forces and pushing them back in spots.  I’m a worrier, so I am worried that UA’s window to have enough forces left to mount a decent offensive is closing.
Am I wrong?

Yes, you are wrong. Part of the Russian way of war is to use its enormous ability to mobilize bodies and throw them at their enemy. Basically generate a ton of mass and use that quantity to just bury the adversary. The problem with that is you have to have a lot of other stuff going right for it to work. I just so happened to have been emailing one of my former bosses about this the other day. Here’s the part of his response that is relevant:

What separates us from most others is our NCO Corps, corporals with 3 to 4 years of service, sergeants with 5 to 6 years, SSG with 7 to 8 years and on up the line.  These personnel train soldiers in the training base as well as in units.  The russians have NONE of this, the Ukrainians have some of it and are gaining more as time passes.  So, the key isn’t how many men can be thrown in the field but how many well trained and equipped men can be in the fight.  Institutionally the russians lost this war before they crossed the L/D and they have no way to recover.

This former boss, a retired Green Beret, was cross trained as an ORSA (military statistician) and assigned to Personnel Command for a broadening assignment. Everything I know about personnel management and force generation I learned from him. I know a lot and it’s still a drop compared to him. Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s re-invasion may not be quick. And it may not be pretty. And it is surely far from over. But I think my former boss has the right take. Even more so when you consider that more and more NATO weaponry, munitions, ordnance, and material will be coming online just as more and more of the Ukrainian NCO Corps comes back from training in Britain and Poland and the US and a few other EU and NATO member states. The Ukrainians may have to stack the Russians like cordwood, and Crimea is going to be an exceedingly hard nut to crack and will likely be the last theater of this war, but overall the Russians invaded with a poorly trained, poorly equipped, poorly led military in pursuit of an objective that was much more delusional that it was strategic.

Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!

A brief report on this day.

Mark Rutte, the Prime Minister of the Netherlands, visited Kyiv.

A leader who greatly helps us protect freedom. The leader of the state helping us a lot to protect Ukraine and all of Europe.

The Netherlands is among Ukraine’s leading partners. It is manifested in defense, political, and legal support.

Today, we had, as always, meaningful negotiations with Mark. There will be more weapons for our soldiers, more pressure on the terrorist state, and more opportunities to restore justice.

Together with the Netherlands, we are working to punish Russia for this aggression and to compensate for the damage caused by the war.

There is already a concrete solution – to place a register of damage in The Hague. It is the first important element of the future compensation mechanism.

I am sure we will reach other necessary solutions. Russia will be held fully responsible for everything it has done against Ukraine and the Ukrainians.

Today, I had the honor to present our people, our defenders at the opening of the Munich Security Conference.

It is one of the most important international gatherings, and this year’s conference represents the significant powers of the modern world. Thanks to all of you, Ukrainian men and women, who defend our state, there is no Russia in Munich.

The key message of Ukraine at the security conference is obvious: we must do everything to ensure the collapse of Russian aggression already this year. It is possible. It is necessary. But it is possible if Ukraine gets the weapons necessary for this.

Therefore, our diplomatic marathon continues without a break – since my visit to Washington in December.

A tank coalition has already been created for Ukraine, the taboo on the supply of long-range missiles has already been lifted, there have already been new successes in strengthening our artillery, and the world has already heard how necessary the creation of an aviation coalition for Ukraine is for global security.

I talked about it today with Prime Minister Rutte, and during the week – with other leaders. I will continue these negotiations next week.

I will continue consolidating support for our country’s initiatives in the UN General Assembly. Next week we will introduce an important resolution, and today I presented its essence, particularly to the heads of government of the Caribbean Commonwealth.

Ukraine always bases its foreign policy on respect for all participants in international relations. All nations are equal and deserve an independent life, and peaceful cooperation with other nations.

This principle of ours meets understanding in all parts of the world. And I thank every state, and every nation that supports Ukrainian efforts to stabilize international relations.

And the most important thing. Of course, today, like any other day, I am in constant contact with the commanders. I held a meeting with representatives of the defense sector.

We are doing everything to strengthen our soldiers on the front line – our heroes who inspire the world by how they bravely and steadfastly defend the freedom of Ukraine, our land, our values.

Again and again, I mention our fighters who defend Donetsk and Luhansk regions. 54th Separate Mechanized Brigade, 95th Separate Assault Brigade, 25th Separate Airborne Brigade – I thank you, soldiers! I thank you all who hold our positions at the front, who destroy the enemy, and who give us all faith in victory. The victory of Ukraine!

Glory to each and every one who is now in battle!

Thank you to everyone who helps our country!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Bakhmut:

BAKHMUT AXIS /0010 18 FEB/ RU units appear to have finally taken Krasna Hora, and have advanced into the adjacent town of Paraskoviivka. A RU airstrike hit Berikhivka; this failed to dislodge UKR defenders, who continue hold the M-03 HWY and the Bakhmut urban area. pic.twitter.com/0D558C3BAM

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) February 17, 2023

Bakhmut:

Update from Bakhmut, 17 February – Kiyanyn. pic.twitter.com/RVNSYzMJuU

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) February 17, 2023

I expect these Wagner asshats are somewhere in the vicinity of Bakhmut:

Wagner once again published a very graphic video begging to be provided with ammunition. In the video, hundreds of corpses of mercenaries are in a room, placed there to show they could have been alive if help had been given. pic.twitter.com/6kOG7cD8Gw

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) February 17, 2023

Here’s the English translation as a screengrab:

War for Ukraine Day 359: A Brief Friday Update

Here’s a bit more on what seems to be going on here:

2/ Wagner may be able to provide the 'meat', but the MOD supplies the ammunition. Wagner's well-publicised efforts to get supplies from North Korea have evidently failed.

— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) February 17, 2023

4/ 🔺 It's notable how different in tone the latest video is from an earlier one in December, when Wagner fighters who were short of ammunition then called Gerasimov "a faggot and a fucking jerk". They're much politer now. pic.twitter.com/kZawkuYwHH

— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) February 17, 2023

6/ 🔺 Prigozhin will certainly be lobbying behind the scenes, so the video may represent an additional effort to put political pressure on the MOD via Russia's community of pro-war nationalist bloggers – they're already sceptical of Shoigu and Gerasimov's leadership. /end

— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) February 17, 2023

 

 

One in five nuclear powers over the age of 45…

https://t.co/pqizAERASB pic.twitter.com/UJ9bUSjx0Q

— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) February 15, 2023

The Guardian has reporting on the threat that the slim GOP majority in the House of Representatives is creating for Ukraine:

Vladimir Putin has proven adept at exploiting the US political divide, so the solid bipartisan consensus behind arming Ukraine over the past year may well have come as a surprise to him. The question one year into the war is: how long can that consensus last?

Two weeks before the first anniversary of the full-scale invasion on 24 February, a group of Trump-supporting Republicans led by Matt Gaetz introduced a “Ukraine fatigue” resolution that, if passed, would “express through the sense of the House of Representatives that the United States must end its military and financial aid to Ukraine, and urges all combatants to reach a peace agreement”.

The resolution is sponsored by 11 Republican members of Congress on the far right Freedom Caucus faction, and is highly unlikely to pass. But it marks a shot across the bows of the leadership, which has mostly vowed to stay the course in supporting Ukraine.

Justifying the resolution, Gaetz pointed to the risks of escalation of the Ukraine war into a wider global conflict and to the economic cost to the US.

“President Joe Biden must have forgotten his prediction from March 2022, suggesting that arming Ukraine with military equipment will escalate the conflict to ‘World War III’,” the Florida Republican said. “America is in a state of managed decline, and it will exacerbate if we continue to haemorrhage taxpayer dollars toward a foreign war.”

The influence of this faction is heightened by the fact that the Republicans have a slim nine-seat majority in the House, and the new speaker, Kevin McCarthy, only scraped into the job after 15 rounds of voting among Republican members, during which he gave promises to listen to the concerns of hard-right holdouts like Gaetz.

“I’ve been sounding the alarms on Republican opposition to Ukraine aid for the last 12 months,” the Democratic senator Chris Murphy said. “Right now, there are enough Republicans in the Senate who support Ukraine aid along with all of the Democrats, so we can continue to deliver support, but I don’t know what’s going to happen in the House.”

“I think there’s going to be tremendous pressure on Speaker McCarthy to abandon Ukraine … and it’s possible he could wilt under the pressure,” Murphy said. “We know the Russians see this as a real opportunity.”

European diplomats have been lobbying Republicans, underlining the importance of maintaining western solidarity in the face of Russian aggression and arguing that support for Ukraine is an extremely inexpensive way to degrade the military of a hostile power seen by the Pentagon as an “acute threat”.

The diplomats report reassuring noises from the party leadership, but unwavering resistance from the rightwingers, many of whom follow the lead of the Trump camp, particularly the former president’s son, Donald Trump Jr, who has railed against western backing for Ukraine, and ridiculed its president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

“The divide in the US is now more tangible than in Europe. The Republican leadership is absolutely adamant that there will be no lessening of support for Ukraine, but it’s just words,” one European diplomat said. “With such a narrow Republican majority in the House, the Freedom Caucus has a lot of influence. And you don’t need to cut off help overnight. You just need to slow it down with procedure. That’s the danger.”

Murphy predicted that the House speaker, who has himself warned that there would no longer be a “blank cheque” for Ukraine with a Republican majority, might seek a compromise with the right of the party that could eventually prove devastating.

“I worry that McCarthy will try to split the baby and support funding for hard military infrastructure but not support economic and humanitarian aid,” the Democratic senator said. “If that’s the direction that US funding goes, it’s a recipe for the slow death of Ukraine.”

More at the link!

Col. (ret) Mike Pietrucha, a F4G Wild Weasal and F-15E Strike Eagle electronic warfare officer has a new piece up about the proposal to give F16s to the Ukrainian Air Force:

Ukraine is fighting for its existence and the war that began with unchecked Russian aggression in 2014 has become the most destructive conflict in Europe since World War II. Ukraine, ably defended by the strength of its people, has been strongly backed by the United States and NATO powers, receiving a steady stream of materiel. Ukraine’s citizens have proven able to adapt Western military systems on the battlefield, making Ukraine a capable and lethal adversary, as the Russians discover daily. But not everything that NATO can provide can be sent immediately to the Ukrainian military or absorbed instantly by soldiers and airmen.

The Ukrainian government has been asking for fighter aircraft since the first week of the war, when aerial battles with Russian Aerospace Forces (the Vozdushno-kosmicheskiye sily, or VKS) took a terrible toll on Ukraine’s much smaller air force. But the high profile of the request, and NATO’s apparent resistance to provide Western fighters, hides a basic truth. The value of fighter aircraft provided in a hurry is questionable, as the fighter aviation enterprise cannot be bought off the shelf and training is paramount. The discussion over why Ukraine should have fighter aircraft and how quickly they can get them obscures the real nature of Ukraine’s immediate requirement — ground-based long-range precision strike.

Airpower is not a magic wand to be waved across the battlefield. Fighter aircraft do not, by themselves, grant an instant and comprehensive airpower capability upon delivery. Because, as always, it’s not about the airplane.

Revolution, Not Evolution

The foundation of an airpower capability is fundamentally people, not hardware. An aircraft, of whatever type, does not grant a capability unless it is flown by capable and trained individuals, competently maintained, and adequately supported. Ukraine’s air force is not a fledgling air force; it operates fixed and rotary wing aircraft that perform airlift, counterair, and ground attack missions. It has a 30-year history of using and modifying legacy Soviet aircraft, and Ukraine has its own aviation industry. Ukraine has managed to maintain a force despite horrific losses in the early days, and has even managed to add new defense-suppression capabilities, enabled by MiG-29 Fulcrum carrying American-supplied AGM-88 High Speed Antiradiation Missiles. But it does not operate Western aircraft and it never has. By necessity, its training programs, tools, support equipment, and experience base are entirely based on three decades of independent operations with Soviet legacy aircraft, which were designed to support a Soviet style of airpower employment, not a Western one. The Soviets operated their airpower under centralized control, primarily in support of the ground component, while Western airpower embraces aviator initiative and utilizes airpower for a wide range of missions beyond just flying artillery.

Switching over to Western aircraft is possible, of course, and Ukraine is an excellent candidate for doing so. But the provision of Western fighters like the F-16 is not an evolutionary step; it is a revolutionary step that will require the Ukrainian air force to start from scratch. Ukraine has experience operating single-mission aircraft — their interceptors like the MiG-29 Fulcrum have only a rudimentary ground attack capability, and their Su-24 Fencer and Su-25 Frogfoot ground attack aircraft have no air to air capability at all.The F-16 has evolved into a capable multirole fighter that has no parallel in the ex-Soviet aviation enterprise.

The F-16 is a great example of an upgrade to a multirole fighter. It is a mature system, is easy to fly, reliable, flexible, and there is a large stock of expertise in all aspects of F-16 support in a variety of countries. The F-16 is often a reasonable choice for air arms wishing to transition to a more advanced capability. Poland, Iraq, Romania, and Egypt all made the F-16s the centerpiece of their modernization efforts when electing to purchase American-built fighters.None of these conversions resulted in an instant improvement in warfighting capability, and by most measures the Iraqi experiment has failed. Using the U.S. Air Force as a sample case, the F-16A went into production in August 1975, at a time when its predecessor, the Phantom II, was still in production and the F-15A had not yet entered operational service. The first F-16As were delivered in August 1978 (three months after the 5000th Phantom II rolled off the St Louis production line) and went directly into test.

Tactical Air Command’s first jets arrived on January 6, 1979, at the 388th Tactical Fighter Wing at Hill Air Force Base. The first squadron to be declared operational was the 4th Tactical Fighter Squadron, which was declared IOC (Initial Operational Capability) almost two years later on October 25, 1980. In March of the next year the squadron deployed 12 aircraft to Flesland Air Station, Norway for Cornet Falcon, the F-16A’s first overseas deployment; an event that lasted a month. The 4th tactical fighter squadron took 21 months to reach initial operational capability in 22 months in an Air Force that already had the maintenance, weapons, and training infrastructure necessary to do it. The F-16A was also an inexpensive day fighter that did two things — counterair missions within visual range, and accurate delivery of free-fall ordnance (including nuclear weapons). It did not deliver laser-guided ordnance, it did not do defense suppression, it possessed no beyond visual range air-to-air missiles, and it did not do close air support. As an indication of how the program progressed, the Fighter Weapons Instructor Course at Nellis Air Force Base graduated its first class in 1982, three and a half years after the delivery of the first operational jets. Notably, these units were not placed directly in combat, because the F-16 was years away from its U.S. Air Force combat debut.

It is unrealistic to assume that because Ukraine has a cadre of combat-experienced fighter aviators that they will be able to jump into F-16s and employ them anywhere near the potential of the aircraft. Fighter aircraft are not internationally standardized, and expertise in operating one does not grant expertise in operating another, particularly with respect to design and maintenance legacies as disparate as American and Soviet design bureaus. The U.S. Air Force entered the F-16 program with a substantial number of combat-experienced aviators from Vietnam, and an experienced cadre of aircraft maintainers backed by a robust logistical infrastructure that had been built around American-built aviation. Make no mistake, the initial cadre of a new aircraft is handpicked from some of the most capable aviators available, and the maintenance cadre is normally very heavy on both experience and skill with very similar aircraft, tools, processes and logistics support. The personnel assigned to the first F-16 squadrons were doing things that the Air Force had long been proficient at — they were just doing it in a new airplane. As the F-16 matured the squadrons added capabilities gradually, one at a time, as the F-16 received a beyond visual range capability with the AIM-120, integrated LANTIRN and the associated ability to deliver laser guided bombs, and incrementally added new sensors, new weapons, and new capabilities. Realistically, Allied Force in 1999 was the first combat operation in which the F-16 units combined to conduct every mission that the F-16 might realistically carry out — and no one unit did all of them.

Reality Basing

Any survey of the hundreds of articles written within the last year about providing F-16s to Ukraine will reveal that many have a common thread — they were not written by either a fighter aviator or by anyone with practical experience in a fighter aviation enterprise. Accordingly, the acquisition of a fighter aircraft is considered synonymous with the capabilities that a fighter aircraft brings in the service of air forces that are used to employing them. Acquisition of the F-16 does not automatically convey all of the capabilities that the aircraft has, all in one shot, because while the aircraft is potentially capable of a wide variety of missions, that requires aircrew capable of using those capabilities. And to start, even experienced aviators are put through a transition course. At the end of this course, the F-16 pilot is mostly safe, and qualified to be a wingman. This does not mean that the new aircrew is proficient in the mission(s) of the squadron to which they will be assigned — it means that they can fly the aircraft and work the systems in a relatively benign training environment — at least well enough to graduate. Upon arrival at a squadron, they will enter a mission qualification program to allow them to meet the minimum standards for mission readiness. A newly mission-ready wingman is only minimally useful and lacks experience with all of the aircraft capabilities. In short, they are qualified to hang on to a flight lead while being led through a mission that they do not yet know how to do well. As the United States learned in Vietnam, these are the aviators who are most likely to be killed in combat operations.

After Vietnam, the Air Force analyzed their losses carefully, and came to the conclusion that 90 percent of aircrew losses in Vietnam occurred within the first 10 combat missions. The 414th Combat Training Squadron and the Red Flag exercises were initiated in 1975 specifically to solve that problem — by putting aircrew in a realistic “combat” environment where they could make all of the mistakes they were going to make in those first ten missions in an environment that is usually nonfatal. My own experience in Red Flag suggests that the “mistake counter” resets to zero when an aviator changes aircraft. By the time I left the F-4G, I had 1,000 hours in the type, was an instructor, and by virtue of being stationed at Nellis had participated on more Red Flag exercises than most aviators do in a career. When I returned for a Red Flag in the F-15E, I had a bunch of new mistakes to make, because the capabilities of the new airplane offered me opportunities to make unwise decisions with a whole new set of hardware. This suggests, at least to me, that it might realistically be a requirement that Ukrainian pilots experience a Red Flag before any potential combat employment.

There is validity to the argument that Ukraine is being provided with enough equipment to not lose the war but not enough to win it. Appeasement dies hard, and both the United States and NATO have been skittish about providing assets that might “escalate” the war. Appeasement, in this context, involves treating the war as one that is inherently asymmetrical, where Russia’s ability to strike deep inside Ukraine (at mostly civilian targets) is accepted as a necessary asymmetry and any capability for Ukraine to respond is “escalatory.” And so, Russia is granted a priceless sanctuary from which to launch operations against Ukraine, while not only denying Ukraine the ability to strike inside Russia, but denying the ability to strike long-range targets inside occupied Ukraine. Russia should receive no such sanctuary, which is incompatible with both international law and with past U.S. practice; the United States first bombed and later invaded Cambodia precisely because of the presence of sanctuaries for Communist forces, echoing a long-running air operation in Laos with the same motivation.

Similarly, Ukraine is put at a major disadvantage with respect to Russian air-launched cruise missiles, which it must take on one at a time on the way to their targets. The obvious historical solution to this conundrum is to catch the bombers on the ground or in the air prior to launch. The United States and NATO lack any suitable long range anti-air munition, but strikes on bombers at their home base are both legitimate and practical — the U.S. considered the obliteration of a mere three IL-28 Beagle bombers in Vietnam as such a high priority that an insanely high-risk mission was launched against them. Ukraine tried such an attack with repurposed Tu-141 reconnaissance drones, damaging an aircraft or two at Engels airbase and forcing the Russians to relocate their valuable bombers further east. But while the new Russian locations are well out of range, the point remained — Russian airpower could and should be attacked at their airbases.

The airpower solution that could be brought into play immediately, and which could serve to both interdict Russian supply lines and devastate their short-range airpower, is obvious: long-range missiles. The United States and NATO have a variety of operational systems that could be provided, quite literally, overnight, ranging from the truck-launched variant of the RGM-109 Tomahawk (originally scheduled to field this year) missile through the air-launched Swedish KEPD-350 and the Anglo-French Storm Shadow, right up to the extended-range Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System or the U.S. Army’s battlefield missile of choice, the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), now in its 31st year of operational service. These systems would provide similar capabilities to missile systems that the Russians have been using in droves since March 2022, and both Tomahawk and ATACMS allow immediate use by Ukraine using methods that they have already employed and have shown that they can execute well and effectively. Air-launched weapons, as always, will require some integration work. As a bonus, as one-time-use air vehicles, the missiles require trivial maintenance support, and a logistical infrastructure that is an expansion of an ammunition supply effort that Ukraine already has.

Western support to Ukraine, assisting in their defense against unprovoked aggression by a neighboring power, is clearly in the national interest for the United States and its NATO partners. Airpower, of course, should be a critical part of the current support plan and modernization should begin as soon as possible, even though the results of the effort are unlikely to be realized for several years. The investment in modern airpower almost always pays off, because it acts as a seedling that allows the receiving air force to advance its entire airpower enterprise one element at a time, instead of putting off a modernization effort into the indefinite future. Even a small force of F-16s, for example, would serve to build the enterprise foundation and provide an experienced carder of operators and maintainers as a baseline for future growth. As long as the force is not squandered with a premature commitment to combat operations, the investment will pay off over the long term, and allow Ukraine to build out the human capital necessary for achieving desired mission capabilities over time.

In the meantime, the argument about providing Western fighter aircraft remains inappropriately focused on complex hardware and not the human elements necessary to make combat aviation what it is, while distracting from airpower applications that should be put into play immediately. The argument about the F-16 or any other Western fighter consumes time focusing on a capability that cannot be employed in the near term, at the expense of discussing airpower capabilities that could have an effect in short order. Ukrainian operation of a Western fighter is a challenge for a future Ukraine and a problem for a future Russia, while NATO glosses over the uncomfortable reality that there are missile systems that could have an immediate battlefield effect, if only Ukraine had them. Rather than focusing on an airplane type, supporters of Ukraine should focus on the battlefield effects that Ukraine needs to achieve, especially interdiction and the attrition of Russian strategic and tactical aviation, on the ground. Those effects can be gained without aircraft, illustrating the airpower truism that it is not about the airplane.

Much, much, much more at the link!

Mein Gut!

"The FSB instructed the BND agent, through the intermediary Arthur E., to siphon off and hand over GPS data from the US-supplied HIMARS multiple rocket launcher & the Iris-T air defense system…People familiar with the case say it's unlikely that such data was actually shared."

— Franz-Stefan Gady (@HoansSolo) February 17, 2023

CNN reports that the already begun and/or soon to begin Russian offensive is more aspirational than operational reality:

As Russia begins a new offensive in eastern Ukraine, the US and its allies are skeptical Moscow has amassed the manpower and resources to make significant gains, US, UK and Ukrainian officials tell CNN. “It’s likely more aspirational than realistic,” said a senior US military official.

Russia has been increasing the number of forces situated on its border and inside Russian-held territory in Ukraine, some of the forces drawn from a partial mobilization ordered in September last year. Despite the increased numbers, Western allies have not seen evidence of sufficient changes to those forces’ ability to carry out combined arms operations needed to take and hold new territory.

“It’s unlikely Russian forces will be particularly better organized and so unlikely they’ll be particularly more successful, though they do seem willing to send more troops into the meat grinder,” a senior British official told CNN.

The US military had assessed it would take as long as until May for the Russian military to regenerate enough power for a sustained offensive, but Russian leaders wanted action sooner. The US now sees it as likely that Russian forces are moving before they are ready due to political pressure from the Kremlin, the senior US military official told CNN.

Though Ukrainian officials have been sounding the alarm about new Russian attacks in the East, there is also skepticism on the Ukrainian side about Russian capabilities as those forces currently stand.

“They amassed enough manpower to take one or two small cities in Donbas, but that’s it,” a senior Ukrainian diplomat told CNN. “Underwhelming, compared to the sense of panic they were trying to build in Ukraine.”

As the war approaches its first anniversary later this month, Ukraine has kept the pressure on Western leaders to provide more advanced and longer-range weaponry to defend and fight back against Russia. In January, the US, Britain, and Germany agreed to send modern battle tanks, but now Ukraine is pushing for fighter jets and long-range missiles.

Earlier this month Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that “Russia is now concentrating its forces and preparing for an attempt at revenge not only against Ukraine, but also against free Europe and the free world.”

He has said he believed a new Russian offensive – predicted by his commanders in interviews in December – had already started.

More at the link!

That’s enough for tonight.

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Reader Interactions

46Comments

  1. 1.

    Doug R

    February 17, 2023 at 8:28 pm

    Where is everybody?

  2. 2.

    patrick II

    February 17, 2023 at 8:37 pm

    @Doug R:

    At John’s bachelor party.  Weren’t you invited?

  3. 3.

    bbleh

    February 17, 2023 at 8:42 pm

    …the Russians invaded with a poorly trained, poorly equipped, poorly led military in pursuit of an objective that was much more delusional that it was strategic.

    And large portions of Ukraine are being destroyed or set back in a huge way (eg, power infrastructure, agriculture irrigated from the reservoir the Russians are emptying), and tens — probably low hundreds — of thousands of Russians killed, and probably some tens of thousands of Ukrainians, and … Putin appears to remain in control and nobody really has any coherent idea how the horror might end.  It’s starting to take on WWI-like characteristics.

    Some things often look solid until they crumble suddenly.  I HOPE that’s the case with the support of the Russian ruling class for the war.  But so far it seems like they’re impervious to what many (eg JCS Chair Milley) are calling a loss.  Gawd…

  4. 4.

    frosty

    February 17, 2023 at 8:44 pm

    Thanks for all the brief updates. I can’t imagine how much time it would take to do a non-brief update. These are very good.

  5. 5.

    Adam L Silverman

    February 17, 2023 at 8:50 pm

    @frosty: We have not yet invented the tools, nor written the calculations, needed to determine the amount of time it would take to do a non-brief update.

  6. 6.

    Gin & Tonic

    February 17, 2023 at 8:56 pm

    Thanks for that Pietruch piece, informative if sobering. But I have to say “an environment that is usually nonfatal” is something I strive for daily.

    In other news, as it relates to the House crazies – I have a friend who’s a Republican (yes, I know…) We’ve worked together on municipal committees for a long time, his kids and mine went to school together, etc. He’s not insane, just a representative of the nearly-extinct breed of New England “reasonable Republican.” Relevant to the story, he is also very proud of his Polish heritage. So last week we were chatting before a meeting and he swore to me that if the House R’s cut off aid to Ukraine, he is never again voting for a Republican.

  7. 7.

    Gin & Tonic

    February 17, 2023 at 8:58 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: My mother was a journalist and columnist. She told me more than once that it is far more difficult to write a short piece than a long one.

  8. 8.

    Mallard Filmore

    February 17, 2023 at 8:58 pm

    Two weeks before the first anniversary of the full-scale invasion on 24 February, a group of Trump-supporting Republicans led by Matt Gaetz introduced a “Ukraine fatigue” resolution that, if passed, would “express through the sense of the House of Representatives that the United States must end its military and financial aid to Ukraine, and urges all combatants to reach a peace agreement”.

    My question to these Republicans is …
    “How much of Arizona are you willing to negotiate away to Mexican drug cartels? Why are you demanding that Ukraine do this?”

  9. 9.

    coin operated

    February 17, 2023 at 9:09 pm

    Adam,

    I’d love to see your former boss’s entire response! And the article from Col (Ret) Pietruch is one of the best explanations ever in regards to providing Western aircraft to Ukraine.

    As always, thank you for the updates.

  10. 10.

    Gin & Tonic

    February 17, 2023 at 9:09 pm

    There was some discussion last night about russia’s intentions with respect to Ukraine, Ukrainians and Ukrainian culture. If it’s still not clear:

    russians are throwing away Ukrainian books from the Pryazovskyi state university in Mariupol. Some are dumped right from the window. russia is systemically destroying all things Ukraine in the occupied towns. Great russian culture is erazing our identityPhoto: P.Andryushchenko pic.twitter.com/wAJ9K6AcI9— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) February 17, 2023

  11. 11.

    lowtechcyclist

    February 17, 2023 at 9:09 pm

    @Gin & Tonic:  That’s been around for awhile. Blaise Pascal, the 17th century mathematician and philosopher, famously apologized once for writing such a long letter, saying he hadn’t had the time to write a shorter one.

  12. 12.

    lowtechcyclist

    February 17, 2023 at 9:18 pm

    I’ll admit I didn’t have the energuy to read all of Col. Pietruch’s piece, after reading far too much about why they be of any use anytime soon because of traiing (or rather its absence).  Because I was far from the only person who spent a good deal of last year asking why we don’t start training Ukrainian pilots on the F-16, so that they’ll be ready to make use of it when/if we decide to give them some F-16s?

    I understand that giving them the F-16s without training both the pilots and the people who would maintain the aircraft doesn’t do much good.  But we could have been doing something about this all along, and that’s what bothers me.  So now, a year into this war, we’d have to wait several months more before Ukraine could make good use of F-16s because we didn’t provide the training last year.

    Grrrr. Argh.

  13. 13.

    Adam L Silverman

    February 17, 2023 at 9:22 pm

    @lowtechcyclist: As I’ve been writing since Thanksgiving 2021 in regard to this: we are slow. We are way behind.

  14. 14.

    Grumpy Old Railroader

    February 17, 2023 at 9:31 pm

    Adam, If misspelling Col Pietrucha’s last name was a sneaky test to see who actually clicked the link to read his excellent article, I guess I win the prize.

    My wish is that every arm chair general bleating for F-16s would read this and understand the magnitude of the problem. And yeah, if we were going to commit to supplying F16s, we should have started the training program early last year.

  15. 15.

    LivinginExile

    February 17, 2023 at 9:47 pm

    Gen. Ben Hodges advocates for giving longer range precision missiles, so they can start with the Crimean Pen. first.  Take care of Donbas later.

  16. 16.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 17, 2023 at 9:48 pm

    @lowtechcyclist: You have to remember that the Ukrainians needed the pilots they had to fly the planes they had.  They couldn’t fly missions and train on new planes simultaneously.

  17. 17.

    Another Scott

    February 17, 2023 at 9:49 pm

    @Grumpy Old Railroader: I wouldn’t be at all surprised if some Ukrainian pilots and mechanics were getting F-16 training now and long ago.  I have no independent knowledge, but I assume that lots of things are going on that don’t get talked about in the press.

    E.g. NationalGuard.mil from 2011:

    NEWS | July 18, 2011

    National Guard, joint forces train for safer skies in Europe

    By Maj. Matthew Mutti, U.S. Air Force Massachusetts National Guard

    MIRGOROD AIR BASE, Ukraine – Several Air National Guard F-16 Fighting Falcons landed in Ukraine this weekend for a U.S. European Command sponsored, aerial military-to-military exchange event called SAFE SKIES 2011, a joint exercise held throughout this month in which pilots from the U.S., Poland and Ukraine will engage in air sovereignty operations in preparation for the 2012 Olympics, the 2012 EURO Cup, and the 2014 Winter Games in Europe.

    Air National Guard units from Alabama, California, Massachusetts and Washington flew into a base that until Friday had only seen use by Ukrainian MiG-29s and Su-27 Flanker aircraft.

    These Airmen are here as part of the National Guard State Partnership program which is expected to play a major role in Safe Skies 2011. Air Guard pilots will train with Polish and Ukrainian pilots in the same air space, with an overall goal of enhancing multinational cooperation in an effort to promote airspace security.

    The seven F-16Cs from Alabama and Iowa cut through the calm, blue Ukrainian sky and are among the first American fighter jets to touchdown in this former soviet-bloc country.

    “Working together with the Ukrainian and Polish air forces is important to U.S. interests in that it helps promote regional stability,” said Air Force Lt. Col. Robert Swertfager, project officer for the exercise and an F-16 pilot assigned to the144th Fighter Wing, California Air National Guard. “This event increases our collective capacity to address common security challenges.”

    […]

    Yes, I understand joint exercises are not the same as training on NATO aircraft. That’s true. It’s just an illustration that more things are likely going on, and have been going on, than the press talks about.

    My $0.02.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  18. 18.

    frosty

    February 17, 2023 at 9:56 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: Ha! Sorry I failed as a math major or I would take a crack at it. Seems a bit too technical for an engineer (looks it up in his non-brief update tables).

  19. 19.

    Tony G

    February 17, 2023 at 10:07 pm

    Those Wagner guys do not sound happy.  I guess that Puin figures that there’s no downside to his regime depending on angry, disgruntled mercenaries.

  20. 20.

    Anoniminous

    February 17, 2023 at 10:09 pm

    UK Defense Intelligence estimates the Russians have had 175,000 to 200,000 casualties over the last year. That is effectively 100% of the initial force deployment, a complete turn-over. Of that they estimate 40,000 to 60,000 dead. The high KIA to WIA percentage is due to the fact the Russians don’t believe in medical support for their assault groups.

  21. 21.

    Another Scott

    February 17, 2023 at 10:10 pm

    Adam may have covered this earlier – I’m behind on my course work. ICYMI – APNews.com (from 2/16):

    ABOARD A US MILITARY AIRCRAFT (AP) — The first class of 635 Ukrainian fighters has finished a five-week advanced U.S. training course in Germany on sophisticated combat skills and armored vehicles that will be critical in the coming spring offensive against the Russians, the Pentagon said Friday.

    Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said that additional training is already underway at the Grafenwoehr training area, and will involve about 1,600 more Ukrainian troops. The completion of the first class coincided with a visit to the base by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, giving him his first chance to see Ukrainian soldiers training there.

    The first group of Ukrainian forces arrived at the base on Jan. 15 and was put through an intense course that prepared them to take Bradley fighting vehicles and M109 Paladins into battle. The Bradleys and Paladins are two of the many armored vehicles and tanks that the U.S. and allies have pledged to the Ukrainians to help them punch through entrenched Russian troop lines. The Paladin is a self-propelled howitzer that runs on tracks rather than wheels.

    Ryder said another battalion of Ukrainian troops began training on the Bradley fighting vehicle two weeks ago, and a field artillery battalion started instruction on the Paladin. Those two units total about 710 troops. Another field artillery unit and a Stryker battalion will start training next week, involving about 890 troops. That will be the first Ukrainian battalion to get training on the Stryker, an armored personnel carrier.

    […]

    Good, good.

    (via rferl.org)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  22. 22.

    Anoniminous

    February 17, 2023 at 10:16 pm

    With all the different weapon systems from different countries pouring into Ukraine it’s damn fortunate there are computers to keep track of who has what and in what condition.

  23. 23.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 17, 2023 at 10:19 pm

    @Anoniminous: Property Book Officers live for that shit.

  24. 24.

    Parfigliano

    February 17, 2023 at 10:34 pm

    @Anoniminous: I dont believe in medical support for their (Russian) assault groups either.

  25. 25.

    Carlo Graziani

    February 17, 2023 at 10:50 pm

    Another great update, with a lot to digest and think about. We are in your debt.

    Your Special Forces former boss has a knack for articulating the essentials, I must say.

  26. 26.

    Subsole

    February 17, 2023 at 10:51 pm

    Adam,

    I just wanted to say that I appreciate how informative these posts are. In addition to the conflict, they really highlight the sheer vastness of a military organization. It never would have occurred to me as a civilian that the military trains and employs statisticians, for example. It makes perfect sense, but it is one of those millions of components we simply don’t stop to think about.

  27. 27.

    Redshift

    February 17, 2023 at 10:55 pm

    Two weeks before the first anniversary of the full-scale invasion on 24 February, a group of Trump-supporting Republicans led by Matt Gaetz introduced a “Ukraine fatigue” resolution

    “Fatigue?” Poor Matty, he’s just too tired to tired to support fighting totalitarian oppression! If he’d been around in the 40s, he’d have been pushing “Europe fatigue” (and working on becoming a minor character in Maddow’s Ultra.)

    Well, the rest of us aren’t tired, Matt. And if you’re tired of working for freedom around the world, maybe you aren’t cut out for US government service. (Spoiler alert: he isn’t.)

  28. 28.

    Carlo Graziani

    February 17, 2023 at 10:59 pm

    Wagner may be able to provide the ‘meat’, but the MOD supplies the ammunition. Wagner’s well-publicised efforts to get supplies from North Korea have evidently failed.

    This is a bad take. It doesn’t matter how much weaponry and ammo is promised to Wagner. It all has to get delivered to them, and that cannot happen without MOD’s say-so, because that’s who controls Russia’s sustainment capabilities, such as they are.

    Prigozhin is just a subcontractor, and all he provides is manpower. He’s always been dependent on MOD for every other relevant military necessity. The fact that it’s only occurring to him now that he needs to be polite to the people holding an axe over his windpipe basically shows that he’s a cretin who should have stuck to catering, where the stakes are commensurate to his intellect and political acumen.

  29. 29.

    Ruckus

    February 17, 2023 at 11:01 pm

    As one of those US military petty officers, who ran a department on a US Navy medium sized war ship 50 years ago, I can say/agree unequivocally that it is one of our massive strengths that without, we wouldn’t be anywhere near where we are. Much of any rational military force today has to have levels of leadership so that there is no massive group that doesn’t know it’s ass from a hole in the ground. Overseeing several hundred humans and knowing/doing any job in a modern military just takes time, effort and organization far more than 1 person or layer can do.

    The ship I was stationed on had just over 300 people on board, 20- 25 officers, 4 levels of NCOs totaling maybe 125-150 men and the rest were below NCO level. Now ground troops would have different ratios that I don’t really know.

  30. 30.

    Lyrebird

    February 17, 2023 at 11:18 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: russia’s intentions with respect to Ukraine, Ukrainians and Ukrainian culture…

    Thanks G&T.

    Awful.

  31. 31.

    Carlo Graziani

    February 17, 2023 at 11:21 pm

    @Ruckus: Yes, this.

    The thing about a force structure that lacks a professional NCO corps is that recruit training is much more fragile, and prone to failure in a crisis.

    Which is exactly what we’ve seen in the Russian ground forces in this war. The Russian failure to rotate battalions out of the war zone and into their allocated training role as they rest and refit has devastated their ability to turn new recruits—including volunteer contract soldiers and scheduled draftees—into genuinely useful military assets, as opposed to meat targets for artillery and machine guns. A working NCO corps would at least give new recruits shoveled into the field some more personalized orientation than they get from terrified junior officers, who are largely alienated from the troops at their command.

    It’s all kinds of fucked up. But it means that the new meat is useless for offensive purposes, despite the impressive numbers it produces. When the UA is good and ready, and has judged that it’s gained the maximum benefit from the inherent advantage of defensive ops in terms of grinding out Russian casualties, I fully expect them to give a much better offensive account of themselves, just as they did last year.

  32. 32.

    Doug R

    February 17, 2023 at 11:29 pm

    @patrick II: I’m lucky if someone replies to me. I suspect I’m one of the defaults on the π filter.

  33. 33.

    Carlo Graziani

    February 17, 2023 at 11:34 pm

    @lowtechcyclist: It’s a very long piece, because it goes into a great deal of detail. The response to your observation is that successful introduction of a platform such as the F-16 to a former Soviet-style Air Force entails a great deal more than just pilot training. More even than the considerable task of laying down the logistics and maintenance support. It requires a retraining of the entire air force, at least at wing level, to see the platform introduction produce benefirs.

    It’s something that has to happen in peacetime (as is occurring in Poland), with care to avoid systemic failures, as have apparently occurred with the introduction of F-16s to Iraq. So it makes sense to plan for postwar advent of the aircraft to Ukraine, but discussing it in the midst of a shooting war is just a distraction from Ukraine’s real needs.

  34. 34.

    Freemark

    February 17, 2023 at 11:35 pm

    If Ukraine was to fly the F-16 it needed to start years ago. Even if the effort to change over to the F-16 had started before the war they would still be years away from using them unless they flew out of NATO bases that were already proficient in supporting them. That ain’t happening. Ukraine is better off sending new trainee pilots and support personnel, that have little to no experience, for training while their current pilots and support do the best with what they have.

  35. 35.

    Another Scott

    February 18, 2023 at 12:07 am

    OpenThread, and ultimately related (given VVP’s overwhelmingly dominant source of income) – Phys.org:

    […]

    Based on modeled pathways from the IPCC, we estimate that coal power will have to be phased out in India, China and South Africa more than twice as fast as any historical power transition for electricity systems of comparable size. This is unlikely to be achievable or acceptable in any major coal-dependent developing country.

    A more feasible pathway to eliminating coal might use the targets set out by the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA), an international coalition of countries established in 2017. The PPCA favor a differentiated timeline for exiting coal power, with rich countries going first by 2030 and the rest of the world by 2050.

    These targets reflect how developing countries are more dependent on coal and have less money to invest in the green transition, but bear less historical responsibility for causing climate change.

    […]

    It also has important consequences for oil and gas. In all countries, oil and gas production must fall even in published pathways to 1.5°C, rather than increasing as most countries plan.

    But when the world phases out coal at the PPCA pace, oil and gas must be phased out correspondingly faster. This has a different impact on different countries. For example, cumulative oil production by the US from 2020 to 2050 is 20% lower than in a 1.5°C pathway without the differentiated efforts proposed by the PPCA.

    Limiting climate change requires phasing out all three fossil fuels: coal, oil and gas. Our research finds that climate models and policy debates rely too much on winding down coal, especially in coal-dependent developing countries.

    Instead, a fairer and more realistic balance of mitigation efforts is needed, which means more emphasis on eliminating oil and gas. It also means greater effort by the global north, even while all countries, including those in the global south, end coal power as quickly as possible.

    More information: Greg Muttitt et al, Socio-political feasibility of coal power phase-out and its role in mitigation pathways, Nature Climate Change (2023). DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01576-2

    2030 is just around the corner.

    Oil and gas would likely still be produced after we stop using it for fuel (the stuff is feedstock for all kinds of useful chemicals), but one would think that much less money would be going to monsters once we make the transition. Humanity would seemingly benefit all kinds of ways, and the planet’s atmosphere would be under much less stress, also too.

    Those, like Exxon-Mobil and BP and …, who are reporting record profits will not be happy, and of course they will fight it every step of the way, but the developed world really does need to do more, and do it quicker, to get off burning fossil fuels of all types.

    I’ve been planning on getting a newer car to replace my 2004 VW Jetta Wagon VW TDI in a year or two. I know that many more types and models of electric cars will be available in the 2nd half of the decade than the first, so I’ve been wanting to wait (and thinking about getting a temporary transition vehicle like maybe a 2015 Golf SportWagen TDI in the meantime), but being in a position to move to electric faster should tilt the balance more… Maybe I should look more seriously at a used Leaf or a Bolt or …

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  36. 36.

    Another Scott

    February 18, 2023 at 12:22 am

    On the Iraqi F-16s, the Drive story cited above, and an earlier EurasianTimes.com story have a vastly different emphasis:

    […]

    Following the assassination of Iran’s top commander, General Qassem Soleimani by the US at the start of the year, Iran carried out ballistic missile attacks on two US air bases in Iraq.

    This forced the Pentagon to withdraw some of its contractors and troops from Iraqi locations which included the F-16 homestead, Balad Airbase.

    According to a statement by the Pentagon – “Lockheed Martin contractors withdrew from the base between Jan. 4 and 8, after enduring indirect rocket fire from Iran-backed militias.”

    According to Iraqi pilots who spoke on the condition of anonymity due to lack of authority to speak on the record, the withdrawal of Lockheed’s employees has affected the condition of the F-16 fighters adversely.

    “The issue is Lockheed withdrew its employees. However, all these planes (F-16s) need to be serviced and supervised,”

    “But because of a lack of parts, the Iraqi defense ministry started making its own parts and things, which is not allowed and effectively voids the warranty on them. In one case, a tool was left inside one of the engines.” The pilot said while speaking to Fox News.

    The IQAF pilot also mentioned how the events have also affected the combat readiness of Iraqi pilots.

    “Most planes are now grounded because they (air force personnel) don’t know what they are doing re the upkeeping, which in turn means that the Iraqi pilots can’t do their certification flights every month thus are rendered not combat-ready.”

    Another pilot also claimed how the country is only left with seven F-16 fighters which are fully combat-capable.

    [image]

    “We used to fly 16 sorties (a takeoff mission) a day with two jets standby for combat. But now only two-[to-]four sorties a day if we even get airborne. This is due to the lack of proper maintenance and spare parts for the airplanes,”

    […]

    I don’t know which story has a more accurate take.

    It’s hard to make generalizations based on very small numbers of examples, but there are several problems that Iraq had/is having that would not seem to be directly transferrable to Ukraine.

    Yes, training and manpower and logistics and all the rest need to be in place. Yes, ideally it would have ramped up years ago. But…

    Presumably NATO isn’t going to start sending combat aircraft to Ukraine until they are confident that they can be sustained, and that NATO’s member governments are fully on-board with the decisions. The latter may be a bigger constraint at the moment.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  37. 37.

    HumboldtBlue

    February 18, 2023 at 12:22 am

    A Ukrainian couple have opened a restaurant called “Krym” (the Polish name for Crimea) opposite the Russian embassy in Warsaw in a protest against Russia’s occupation of the peninsula.

  38. 38.

    patrick II

    February 18, 2023 at 12:35 am

    @Doug R:

    Actually, I kind of regretted writing that, but got back to late to change it.

  39. 39.

    Ruckus

    February 18, 2023 at 2:04 am

    @Carlo Graziani:

    Well that and the theft and corruption that must exist in Russia which must be massive. Because they have basically run out of arms and operational equipment and are throwing in antiquated crap. Rifles that are all rusty because they haven’t been cared for in any way. Their tanks are a lot more fragile than they look like, one hand grenade or the equivalent dropped in the hatch destroys the entire tank and crew. Even a lack of clothing for people with zero training and likely just over zero leadership on the field. If they didn’t have missiles and medium to long range artillery they would have been totally done before now. A larger, better equipped and as competent a force would have destroyed the Russian military before now.

  40. 40.

    VeniceRiley

    February 18, 2023 at 7:25 am

    “Honored to present F16 T-shirt to ⁦@SenatorMenendez⁩! Ukraine knows what it needs to win and these are modern fighter jets. F-16 were already flying in Ukraine during clear sky trainings in 2019”

    https://twitter.com/dkaleniuk/status/1626909656630140928?t=BOljBO0j_owdOkLspf8wPA&s=19

  41. 41.

    Procopius

    February 18, 2023 at 8:43 am

    … more and more NATO weaponry, munitions, ordnance, and material will be coming online just as more and more of the Ukrainian NCO Corps comes back from training in Britain and Poland and the US and a few other EU and NATO member states.

    So, you expect the war to last three or four years? I saw an article earlier today that said the output of 155mm shells was expected to be expanded to 15,000 a month by 2025, enough for three days firing at current rates.. The M-1 Abrams tanks to be manufactured for Ukraine won’t be completed until next year, and will require several months training. Is it true that the Russian armed forces do not have any long term, experienced NCOs? I find that hard to believe. I was on active duty during Vietnam, and remember the “instant NCO” program. It did not go well. Neither did “Project 100,000.”

  42. 42.

    Carlo Graziani

    February 18, 2023 at 11:58 am

    @Procopius: The Russian tactical military hierarchy is modeled after the Soviet one, which also did not rely on a professional NCO corps. Instead, the duties ascribed to corporals and sergeants in Western militaries were carried out by lieutenants, of which they needed a huge supply. The officer-to-enlisted men ratio was much higher in the Warsaw Pact than in NATO, a fact that reinforced the pathologies of a command system that discouraged unauthorized initiative, even in the face of crisis or opportunity.

    To make matters worse, the NCO roles that did exist were filled by promoting selected enlisted men, but those NCO’s authority over the men was completely undermined by a parallel, informal seniority system created by the 2-year term of draftee service, filled by 6-month drafts. This created four “classes” of enlisted men of ascending seniority, a hierarchy ruthlessly enforced by a system of ritualized hazing known as “Dedovshchina”, wherein each recruit was assigned a superior class recruit (his “Ded”) to whom he owed total obedience on pain of punishments verging on—and not infrequently amounting to—torture. Numerous recruits were killed or driven to suicide by this system. And any promoted corporal learned quickly not to have the temerity to attempt to impose his formal authority on more senior recruits, particularly his Ded, but also any of his Ded’s peers or “superiors”. And even junior officers found it difficult to assert their authority when their commands pushed the boundaries of Dedovshchina. Senior commanders recognized the pathology, and the undermining of combat effectiveness that resulted from it, but were powerless to effect any meaningful reform.

    And thus the “modern” Russian military. Some traditions die hard. Apparently there were some reform attempts about 10 years ago that included an effort to rein in Dedovshchina and create a Western-style NCO corps, but they came a-cropper of strong institutional resistance. So reportedly Dedovshchina is alive and well, and the Russian military is as over-officered and sclerotic as the Soviet  Army ever was. But incapable of producing the same terrifying combat power as the Soviets could, of course.

    On Dedovshchina, see William Odom, The Collapse of the Soviet Military.

  43. 43.

    Chetan Murthy

    February 18, 2023 at 2:59 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: Looking at collections of pre-reinvasion statements from Putin et al, I think you were right: they intended to destroy Ukrainian culture in toto: https://www.justsecurity.org/81789/russias-eliminationist-rhetoric-against-ukraine-a-collection/

  44. 44.

    Bill Arnold

    February 18, 2023 at 4:59 pm

    @Chetan Murthy:
    Thanks. That compendium of genocidal talk by Russians is very useful. Read all at once, it is near impossible not to become extremely angry.
    A little over a week before one of those with a subsection, Igor Mangushev (the skull guy), was shot in the back of the head at a downward 45 degree angle, I mentioned here that the world would be a better place if most Russian pro-invasion propagandists “were field-expedient pithed”. That is precisely what I was suggesting. (More like 35 degrees from vertical, but close enough.)

  45. 45.

    Chetan Murthy

    February 18, 2023 at 6:26 pm

    @Bill Arnold: Indeed.  I’ve never been misled into thinking that Russia’s way of war is somewhere on the spectrum of the ways that Western armies wage war: there’s no comparison between My Lai and Mariupol, none whatsoever.  But I didn’t actually believe that Putin intended to erase all of Ukrainian culture, simply because he needs the population to prop up Russia, and erasing their culture will necessarily mean murdering many, many millions.

    I thought that he’d decided on that latter course only after encountering resistance.  But it seems pretty clear that he’d decided on that course *before* invading, and on that, G&T is correct and I was quite, quite wrong

    P.S. To clarify: I tried to carefully distinguish between what RU folks said *before* the invasion, and what they said “after* they met resistance.  So I’m speaking specifically about *before* the invasion, when I say that he’d decided on his course of obliterating Ukrainians as a people.  Of course that’s what they’re trying to do now, but it’s what they do whenever they encounter resistance.  It’s clear now that it had nothing to do with encountering resistance, but instead with the mere fact of Ukrainians’ daring to decide their own national destiny.  I think the Maidan revolution Revolution of Dignity is what set him on that course.

  46. 46.

    Chetan Murthy

    February 18, 2023 at 6:33 pm

    @Bill Arnold: BTW, I watched a very interesting BBC documentary about Serbia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VPSZoqJurU

    It is, needless to say, very, very disturbing.  It seems they really haven’t forgiven not being allowed to murder the Kosovars.

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