Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Innocent people don’t delay justice.

Come on, media. you have one job. start doing it.

I’d try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

How can republicans represent us when they don’t trust women?

Following reporting rules is only for the little people, apparently.

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

Not all heroes wear capes.

Republicans in disarray!

He really is that stupid.

You cannot shame the shameless.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

Let’s finish the job.

No one could have predicted…

I see no possible difficulties whatsoever with this fool-proof plan.

Conservatism: there are some people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

Let there be snark.

Tick tock motherfuckers!

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

Impressively dumb. Congratulations.

Nancy smash is sick of your bullshit.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 362: Biden Goes to Kyiv

War for Ukraine Day 362: Biden Goes to Kyiv

by | 50 Comments

This post is in: , , , , , , ,

Biden has gone to Kyiv.

We’ll start with President Zelenskyy’s joint press conference with President Biden. Video with English subtitles below, write up from the President of Ukraine’s website after the jump:

Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with the President of the United States in Kyiv
20 February 2023 – 12:16

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with President of the United States Joseph Biden, who arrived in Ukraine for the first time since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion.

The Head of State met the distinguished guest at the entrance to the Mariyinsky Palace in the capital’s downtown.

After the introduction of the members of the Ukrainian and American delegations, the Presidents of Ukraine and the United States had a face-to-face conversation.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that Joseph Biden’s visit was an extremely important signal of support for Ukraine and Ukrainians.

“Thank you very much, Mr. President. This is a significant moment of support for Ukraine,” he said.

The Head of State emphasized that Joseph Biden personally and the entire American society had been with Ukraine from the very beginning of the full-scale war unleashed by Russia.

“The first phone call supporting Ukraine came from the White House. Thank you for your leadership. I also thank you for the bipartisan support, for the support of the Congress,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

The President of Ukraine noted that he would talk to the President of the United States about the situation on the frontline and about the Ukrainian people facing ordeals.

“What we have to do to stop the war, to succeed in this war, to make Ukraine even stronger, and how to gain victory this year,” he said.

For his part, Joseph Biden noted the importance of his presence in Ukraine today, which demonstrates the U.S. support for the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Ukrainian state.

“I think it would be critically important to leave no doubt that the United States supports Ukraine in its war against brutal aggression,” the U.S. President said.

The U.S. President said he was glad to visit Kyiv again.

“Much has changed since my last trip. Terrible things have happened, an invasion, but at the same time, the Ukrainian people have stepped up in a way that very few people have ever had in their defense. And they helped us embrace the notion of democracy,” Joseph Biden said.

He also conveyed greetings from members of Congress. According to Joseph Biden, they were very impressed by Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent address to Congress.

The U.S. President spoke about his intention to discuss how the United States and its allies can best help Ukraine in its fight for freedom and independence.

Here’s some details of how this was organized:

Here is The Kyiv Independent‘s Illia Ponomarenko’s take:

From his most recent reporting at The Kyiv Independent:

Feb. 24, 2022, was supposed to bring the existence of a 40-million European nation to an end.

Long before the dawn of light, Ukrainian cities were set alight in blazes of burning airfields and the scattering of artillery impacts.

Endless armored convoys broke into highways, and helicopters roared over the woods of north Ukraine.

Every hour, more towns and cities across the country were being captured by advancing Russian armies. CNN was showing Russian paratroopers, their elbows marked with white stripes, at the Antonov Airport just outside Kyiv.

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin declared the end of Ukraine as it was.

Fast forward one year, and on Feb. 20, 2023, U.S. President Joe Biden pays a surprise visit to Kyiv – a triumphant nod at Russia’s failed plans to conquer the Ukrainian capital.

“One year later, Kyiv stands. And Ukraine stands. Democracy stands,” Biden said in Kyiv.

Much, much, much more at the link!

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video with English subtitles followed by the English transcript:

The fate of the world order based on rules, humanity, and predictability is now being decided in Ukraine – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
20 February 2023 – 22:34

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today was a symbolic day. The 362nd day of a full-scale war, and we, in our free capital of our free country, are hosting a visit from our powerful ally, the President of the United States of America, and talking to him about the future of Ukraine, our relations, the whole of Europe and global democracy. This is an indicator of how resilient Ukraine is. And how important Ukraine is to the world.

The ninth anniversary of the most horrific days of Maidan, the anniversary of the beginning of Russian aggression against our country, when there was very little time left before the occupation of our Crimea. And now, nine years later, we are more confident than ever that justice will be served.

The aggressor state, which has consistently been moving towards becoming a terrorist state, will be held accountable for its crimes. It will be held accountable thanks to the efforts of Ukraine and all our partners, the entire free world, and all those who are now helping us to defend our independence, freedom, and international law and order. We will prevail in this historic confrontation.

When President Biden – then Vice President – addressed the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine in December 2015, he emphasized a very important point: it is no exaggeration to say that the hopes of all freedom-loving people around the world are with us, with Ukrainians, because so much depends on the success of our fragile experiment with democracy. For our country, for the whole of Europe – free and peaceful. For the whole world, where democracy is under threat.

We are now absolutely certain that there is nothing that can undermine our democracy. No element of Ukrainian life is fragile anymore and will never be fragile. And our resilience is a powerful contribution to the resilience of all freedom-loving nations in the world.

It is now and in Ukraine that the fate of the world order, which is based on rules, on humanity, on predictability, is being decided. And today, President Biden and I talked, in particular, about how to do everything to ensure our common victory this year in the war that Russia unleashed.

Unleashed nine years ago. The full-scale war has been ongoing since last February. We have to do everything to put an end to Russian aggression this year, to liberate our still occupied territories and to guarantee reliable security for our country and for all the peoples of Europe who want to live in freedom and peace.

The specific steps for this are known. Our defense needs for this are known. The active actions required for this – the actions of our warriors at the front first of all – are also well known to our partners. All we need is determination.

Today I saw such determination of President Biden and the United States of America. And I want to thank Mr. President for this visit and for the talks – really useful talks – that actually continued our conversation that we started in Washington during my visit in December.

We are working on the supply of long-range weapons and other types of weapons that were not previously included in the support packages. And I am grateful for another package that will definitely strengthen our guys on the frontline.

I am also thankful, on behalf of all Ukrainians, to all Americans – ordinary people and community leaders, members of Congress from both parties, and all members of President Biden’s team – for bringing our relationship – between Ukraine and America – to a historically most meaningful level. We can be called true allies, and our alliance with America truly strengthens the world.

This week we will continue our diplomatic work with representatives of the United States. There will also be significant developments in relations with our other partners both in Europe and around the world.

A year of full-scale war, a year of our invincibility, which was a response to the Kremlin’s illusion of “three days for Kyiv”… A year! And we are organizing a truly Ukrainian global week.

Today I held talks with the IMF Managing Director who arrived in Kyiv.

I was very pleased to hear a positive assessment of the resilience of our institutions, the efficiency and effectiveness of our country in the face of such brutal and total aggression. There are situations when states fail even in much easier conditions. The Ukrainian state has passed terrible challenges and retained its full functionality. This is another achievement of our people – all those who work for the state. An achievement that is worth commending right now – on these days, on the eve of the anniversary of the invasion. Ukrainians are capable of very significant things, and every day we see new evidence of this.

Today I would like to praise our heroes on the frontline traditionally. Those who demonstrate extraordinary courage, incredible resilience and the efficiency Ukraine needs in destroying the enemy every day.

Paratroopers of the 79th separate air assault brigade. Infantrymen of the 72nd and the 110th separate mechanized brigades. Units and maintenance forces of these brigades. Gunners of the 55th separate artillery brigade. Thank you, guys, for your bravery and precision in the Donetsk region!

Also, the 128th separate mountain assault brigade and the 1st artillery division of the 44th separate artillery brigade. Thank you guys for the worthy response to the enemy’s attacks against our Zaporizhzhia!

The 66th and the 92nd separate mechanized brigades, the 81st separate airmobile brigade, and the 95th separate air assault brigade. Thank you, guys, for not only inflicting significant losses on the enemy in the Luhansk region, but also for giving faith in our movement to liberate our land.

Glory to all who fight for Ukraine!

Thank you to everyone who helps!

May the memory of everyone who gave life for the freedom of Ukraine live forever!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Bakhmut:

Bakhmut:

 

 

 

Bucha:

Here is a long thread of analysis on where things stand with Russia’s winter offensive by the Center for Naval Analysis’s Michael Kofman. First tweet below, followed by the rest from the Thread Reader App:

The RU offensive consists of about 5-6 axes of attack focused on the Donbas. Rather than a major push along one part of the front, it is instead a series of distributed battles running north-south from Luhansk, to Bakhmut, and southern Donetsk. 2/ 
Russian forces are attacking at Vuhledar, Marinka, Adviivka, Bakhmut (and Bilohorivka), Kreminna -> Lyman, with attempts to advance near Kupyansk. The offensive began in the last week of January with a Russian assault on Vuhledar. 3/ 
The battle for Vuhledar involves two NI brigades (155th, 40th), and has not gone well for the Russian military. RU units refilled with mobilized personnel seem to have lost a fair bit of their offensive edge, but I’m not sure this is a ‘failure to learn.’ 4/ 
The terrain outside of Vuhledar is very open, heavily mined, and covered by UA ATGM teams. It leaves RU forces few options for an assault. I also wonder if the Russian military may be short on specialized equipment for tasks like mine clearing. 5/ 
At Kreminna RU VDV seems to have made some incremental gains against UA positions. Depending on how that battle plays out it may force UA to abandon the Kreminna campaign or lead to see-saw battles in the forest west of the city. 6/ 
There’s a growing likelihood that UA will withdraw from Bakhmut to another defensive line east of Slovyansk/Kramatorsk. The Russian military may then turn north and try to consolidate control up to the Donets river (including Bilohorivka). 7/ 
RU forces have not had much success at Avdiivka or Marinka. This is another area that’s seen months of fighting. The Russian offensive doesn’t look like much of an offensive because it is playing out in areas that have previously seen unsuccessful Russian attacks. 8/ 
At this stage it doesn’t seem that RU has employed reserves, and is likely using those units to replace casualties, or perhaps waiting for a breakthrough to exploit. That said, there’s not much evidence of a larger additional RU force in the waiting. 9/ 
I’ve been skeptical that there is an additional ‘spring offensive’ looming. To conduct such an operation RU would likely need a second mobilization wave, in advance, which never took place. Predictions that 500k troops would be mobilized mid-January proved incorrect. 10/ 
Senior US and NATO military officials have begun saying much the same in recent days. There’s a relative consensus that the Russian offensive to take the Donbas began some time ago, and its going about as expected given the state of the force. 11/ defense.gov/News/Transcrip…Image

My best guess is Moscow will wait to see what comes of this offensive before proceeding with a second mobilization wave. I would not discount anything, but right now the RU offensive looks to yield mostly incremental gains that come at the expense of equipment and ammunition. 12/ 
One possibility is that after UA launches an offensive in the spring, RU will then choose to mobilize in the summer, an attempt another operation later. Given UA no longer enjoys a manpower advantage, RU strategy in 2023 could be to grind away at UA manpower. 13/ 
Russian forces are expending artillery ammunition in this offensive which they will miss in the spring. The coming months will reveal the real situation in RU artillery ammo availability, which I expect is quite problematic, forcing them to ration. 14/ 
That said, Ukrainian forces may also have issues with artillery ammo and barrels. This remains a near to medium term challenge. Rosy assessments of Western ammo production potential over the long-term might not align well with UA requirements for the coming 6-12 months. 15/ 
UA is better served absorbing the RU attack & exhausting RU offensive potential, then taking the initiative later this spring. Having expended ammunition, better troops, and equipment it could leave RU defense overall weaker. 16/ 
My impression is that Surovkin, who stabilized RU lines, preferred a defensive strategy, rebuilding the force, and preferring to defend against a Ukrainian offensive in the south. Then have RU forces launch an offensive later in the summer to try and capture the Donbas. 17/ 
Instead, Gerasimov is exhausting the Russian armed forces with a feckless series of offensive operations, which may yield some gains, like Bakhmut, but unlikely to change the strategic picture. The second battle for the Donbas may once again leave RU forces vulnerable. 18/ 
A spring offensive will still prove a difficult operation for UA. Russian mil now has enough manpower & reserves to avoid a depleted frontline as in Kharkiv. Kherson is an imperfect, but probably a better guide for how a future UA offensive may unfold. 19/ 
Whether Western AFVs make much of a difference depends on employment and the timing of the UA offensive. Its possible, if UA waits for the force to absorb it in quantity, but I suspect this equipment will mostly serve to backfill losses from the next operation. 20/ 
For a bit more on this I would suggest tuning into this WOTR podcast from yesterday. We talk about the Russian offensive, key battles to watch, and how it could shape Ukraine’s plans for the spring.

In case you were wondering what was going on with Prigozhin/Wagner:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Ці коти…🙄 #песпатрон

♬ original sound – Bean

The caption machine translates as:

These cats… 🙄 #песпатрон

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

50Comments

  1. 1.

    Sparkedcat

    Slava Ukraini! Biden with a masterstroke on Presidents Day. ATACAMs and F-16s this year. Thank-you Mr. Silverman for this update.

  3. 3.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Sparkedcat: Note also that in Ukraine, this is the day of commemoration of the “Heavenly Hundred” – those who were killed at the culmination of the Revolution of Dignity (aka “Maidan”) in 2014, precipitating then-President Yanukovych’s flight out of the country.

  4. 4.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Gin & Tonic: I will cover that tomorrow. I had intended it for tonight, but then Biden made his visit. As it deserves to be the central focus of an update.

  6. 6.

    Jeffro

    I’m just gonna say it again: BALLER move, Mr. President!

    (or what that one tweeter above said about a giant middle finger to Putin)

    (which I always have, and always will, heartily approve)

  7. 7.

    eclare

    I have noticed more houses in my neighborhood in Memphis flying Ukrainian flags.  Today was a great day.

  8. 8.

    Sparkedcat

    Putin is scheduled to give a state of the nation address tomorrow. Biden cut Putin’s legs off by showing who is welcome in Kyiv.

  9. 9.

    Dan B

    NPR Kept reporting yesteeday that America and EU were not producing enough ammunition to keep up and manufacturers were not getting contracts to ramp up production. They did not give any details or specifics of where the bottleneck was. No mention of the Defense Production Act either. Anyone know more?

  11. 11.

    Dan B

    @Another Scott: Thank you

     

    Also Yahoo News got a document that outlines the Kremlin’s plan to coerce Belarus into Russia within this decade.

  12. 12.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Great to see Biden visiting Kyiv! Another clear signal to Putin that there is no chance he will succeed w/ his aims in Ukraine.

    Still, the stream of modern equipment to Ukraine has been far too little & far too slow. A stalemate along the current front is to no one’s benefit, not Ukraine’s, not the EU’s, & not the US’, (& not even Russia’s).

  15. 15.

    Anonymous At Work

    Biden just showed he has massive huevos and made Putin seem small.  He also announced, via back-channels, that he let Putin know what he was doing and Putin did nothing.  If Putin really does believe this is a war against The West, letting the leader of The West take a train into Kyiv and smack around Putin…well, it makes Putin look weak.
    Longer term, does this push Putin in any way that weaken him inside Russia?

  16. 16.

    Nelle

    @Gin & Tonic: I’m not sure if this will work, but these are some of those who were killed in Maidan Square in February of 2014.  These photos were displayed along the side of the square.  When I was in Ukraine in 2018, I booked an extra two days in Kyiv in order to walk and sit in remembrance of them.https://photos.app.goo.gl/hADjwSbgGbSWXRX9

    I saw that you, Adam, will be posting on this tomorrow.  I have about 23 photos of those who died plus some photos of the hotel where they brought the wounded.  Let me know if you would like a link to any of those.

  18. 18.

    Carlo Graziani

    Given UA no longer enjoys a manpower advantage, RU strategy in 2023 could be to grind away at UA manpower.

    I’m not actually sure that Kofman is correct about this. He had a bit of a blind spot concerning Ukrainian manpower requisition in 2022, and it seems to me not to have completely dissipated.

    The UA benefits from universal military training (UMT), and has since independence. Setting aside all the trained reservists available for call-up—these would need refresher training, of course—this means that the infrastructure is in place for regular yearly intake and training, so as to guarantee good quality soldiers and air personnel. Moreover, women apparently serve as well (volunteers?) as we saw in yesterday’s “witch” video.

    Contrast this to the madcap, gimcrack measures that the Russians need to take to requisition and train manpower. Their force structure was designed over a decade ago to have a fighting edge of contract soldiers, with a smaller number of draftees in support roles. Now they need to flip that upside-down, and find training resources for their conscripts, at a time when contract volunteering numbers are dwindling, and training resources and personnel have been devoured by the war to which they were despatched as an emergency measure last year.

    Yes, in peacetime, given a few years, the Russians could correct all this, but they won’t have a chance to do so before the war is over. Meanwhile, the UA’s manpower requisition infrastructure is just humming along, with an entire nation’s worth of 18-year olds coming to draft age every year.

    So no, I don’t agree that Russia has a manpower advantage. The have a meat advantage. That’s not going to win them any offensive battles, and I rather doubt it will protect them from whatever the UA comes up with next.

  19. 19.

    zhena gogolia

    @Spanky: I wouldn’t translate выёбываться as “bitching.” More like “fucking around.”

    What a voice. He sounds like a drunk lying on the ground somewhere in Ekaterinburg.

  20. 20.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay: The current invasions is most definitely a historic strategic failure. Before, Putin could punch above his weight in fermenting chaos & pretend at being a great power. Now, Russia will be lucky to stay whole coming out of this.

  21. 21.

    JAFD

    Thanks again, Mr. Silverman, for your work here. Hoping in the not-too-distant future, you’ll be able to compile your posts into a book with a happy ending.

  25. 25.

    Omnes Omnibus

    Blinken’s statement about war crimes, then VPOTUS’s speech about the same topic, and now Biden’s visit all in the space of a few days? Heralding a more aggressive US posture?

  27. 27.

    Jay

    Real HERO of Ukraine 🇺🇦 Meet Fuminori Tsuchiko, he deserved our outmost respect and admiration! 75 year old retiree from Japan, sold his house in Japan and moved Kharkiv. For 9 months he lived in a subway, buying food and feeding local residents. #japon#August2022 #subway-life pic.twitter.com/t5aOBcRKcM— Cin Derella 2.0 (@UAcinderella) February 18, 2023

  28. 28.

    Bill Arnold

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Blinken’s statement about war crimes, then VPOTUS’s speech about the same topic, and now Biden’s visit all in the space of a few days? Heralding a more aggressive US posture?

    I’ve also been watching with interest.
    Another angle is the clearly genocidal nature of Russia’s invasion; that might be more difficult to communicate.

  29. 29.

    Chetan Murthy

    I’ve been thinking about that Prigozhin diatribe.  It seems like one of the things we read about personalist (one-man, one-vote *grin*) authoritarian regimes, is that the man at the top always arranges for all forms of hard power to be fragmented into competing bureaus, so that he can divide-and-conquer, not worry about some underling uniting enough force to take the dictator out.  And here, it seems, we see an example of the drawbacks of that approach: at a time when Russia really, really, *really* needs too unite its forces into a single fist, whether behind Prigozhin, or behind the Naval Infantry before Vuhledar, or behind whoever-is-at-Kreminna, they need to really unite.  Unified command.  But even though they supposedly have united all MoD forces under Gerasimov, they still have Prigozhin off on his own.  And then there’s Kadyrov.  And who-knows-who-else?

    It’s almost a textbook example of what’s wrong with personalist regimes in wartime.

    Or maybe I’m reading too much into it.  Idunno.

  30. 30.

    Carlo Graziani

    @The Pale Scot: The title on the front reads “Figli di Putin”, which literally would be “Sons of Putin”, but is a pun on “Figli di puttana”, (pronounced “Feel-yee dee poot-tah-nah”), meaning “sons of whores”.

    Incidentally, it’s “Carnevale”.

  33. 33.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Omnes Omnibus: Certainly more aggressive messaging, at least.

    I’m still of the opinion that the “mob boss/bully” model of Russian leadership is a more useful guide than the “nationalist-religious grievance/imperial revivalist” model. In the end, this is a dominance/submission contest, as crude as that sounds, because that is the only real mental framework that Putin and his cronies really get at the visceral level. They’ve gotten Russia as far as it’s gotten not by virtue of a vision of imperial destiny, but because of their ability to establish dominance over neighbors by means of intimidation.

    Well, when good and pissed off, the West is capable of instilling a lot more and higher-quality fear in the minds of such goons. Also despair, that a horrible mistake that needs to be wound up as quickly as possible may produce indefinite bleeding instead.

    Much has been made of the dismal prospects for Ukrainian resistance should the war drag on. But in my view, not enough attention has been focused on the prospects for instability in Russia in an extended conflict. Putin was trying to keep a lid on the social impacts of the SMO for very good reasons. Now the lid has blown off, and he must be very worried about the loss of stability and control that is entailed.

    And then Biden strides into the center of this anxiety party and pretty much announces that the US is in it for the Ukrainian win. That’ll break some psychological crockery, for sure.

    I think it’s a brilliant psych war dominance play. It’s about making the Russians believe that they’re losing, and that the longer they’re in it the worse they will lose. And that if Putin wants to improve his  chances of survival, he needs to find a face-saving way out, instead of doubling down.

  34. 34.

    Feathers

    Good on Biden for going to Kyiv!

    In fantastic Olympics news, 34 nations, including the US, have signed a letter calling for the IOC to not allow Russia and Belorussia back into sports competition, which the IOC, cravenly and corruptly, recently called for. This letter follows a meeting with President Zelensky on Feb. 11. Good work, everyone!

    From the statement:

    ”We noted that the situation on the ground in Ukraine has only worsened since [the original IOC statement barring the Russians] . We firmly believe that, given there has been no change in the situation regarding the Russian aggression in Ukraine, and as an imperative for fairness and solidarity towards the Ukrainian athletes whose facilities have been destroyed and who have had to leave their country (or stay to fight for the defence of Ukraine in which very many have lost their lives), there is no practical reason to move away from the exclusion regime for Russian and Belarusian athletes set by the IOC in their statement of 28 February 2022.”

    “We have strong concerns on how feasible it is for Russian and Belarusian Olympic athletes to compete as ‘neutrals’ — under the IOC’s conditions of no identification with their country — when they are directly funded and supported by their states.”

    Copy of statement:

    Countries signing: Austria, Belgium, Canada, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, UK, and the US!

    Note: Australia did not sign, but has issued statement that it is aligned with the nations who did sign.

     

  35. 35.

    jonas

    @Bill Arnold: I think the implication of this is that even if the Russians retreat and try to pull a “no-harm-no-foul” kind of gambit, the international community is still keeping receipts for what they did in Ukraine and will hold the criminals, particularly the Wagner Einsatzgruppen, responsible. This may give them second thoughts, or it could just make them think “what the hell, we’ve got nothing to lose so just fuck ’em all and let God sort it out…” We’ll see.

  36. 36.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Carlo Graziani:

    Much has been made of the dismal prospects for Ukrainian resistance should the war drag on. But in my view, not enough attention has been focused on the prospects for instability in Russia in an extended conflict. Putin was trying to keep a lid on the social impacts of the SMO for very good reasons. Now the lid has blown off, and he must be very worried about the loss of stability and control that is entailed.

    Carlo, obviously, your sketched scenario is a consummation devoutly to be wished.  But …. I’ve read two things that give me pause:

    1. Putin is good at one thing above all: closing off avenues of protest and social solidarity.  He works hard at atomizing society and preventing people from finding common cause with each other.
    2. He has removed “the men with guns” from any other power center except himself.  The regional governors, mayors, etc, have no control of police, prosecutors, jails, prisons, nor military (of course).  All of that comes to him thru multiple ministries.

    So even if the people feel enormous unrest, they can’t do much about it.

  38. 38.

    jonas

    @Feathers: Color me surprised that Austria in particular — an ostensibly “neutral” country fairly gagging on corrupt oligarch money and Russian corruption — signed on to this. No surprise to see no sign of Serbia, but I would have thought that Bulgaria might have had some bigger cojones on this issue.

  39. 39.

    RaflW

    @Omnes Omnibus: Plus the warning to China not to be selling arms to Russia. It’s almost, dare I say it, a muscular foreign policy.

    Ol Joe is definitely not a weak leader. I am again thankful for his being elected.

  40. 40.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Chetan Murthy: I wouldn’t dream of a forecast along these lines, for the reasons that you state.

    However, I believe that it is significant that Putin went to extreme lengths to minimize social disruption from the SMO, right up to September, when everything went pear-shaped for Russia. He’s a psychopath, but I believe that his reads of Russian politics, interpreted through his actions rather than through his words, are probably pretty valuable.

    Putin was afraid of something, so afraid that he went to self-defeating lengths to evade the choices that have been forced on him since the fall by the prospect of humiliating Russian defeat. He’s certainly looking at private polls. And he’s certainly psychologically scarred by the way the Soviet Union collapsed, which did involve (uniquely, in Russian history) mass movements, including truly massive demonstrations in Moscow in 1991 that actually intimidated Gorbachev’s Politburo.

    So we don’t need to believe in a high-percentage threat to Putin’s power. We just need to believe in Putin’s fear that such a threat might exist.

  43. 43.

    Feathers

    @jonas: I would be curious to learn who was in the meeting with Zelenskyy on Feb 11. Was it an already planned meeting about something else and he surprised them? Or were people going knowing it was going to be about should the Russians be allowed at the Olympics?

    One also has to take into account that a lot of people are fed up with Russian doping and that there has been no real consequences for it. I keep hearing people saying “Are we talking about banning them for the war or for the doping?” Of course the war crimes, but you are also talking about people who were already furious and completely fed up with the Russians. Which the Russians use to claim that this is all about “Russophobia.”

  44. 44.

    Sebastian

    Congratulations all around. Since it is the week of big announcements, I guess it’s my turn now.

    Last Monday, February 13th, I came out of stealth with a “start-up”.

    The Society of the Cross and Rose

    The multi-channel launch was a bit of a disaster, FB, LinkedIn, and Twitter are up, but web hit a snag. I had a big splash planned for Sat & Sun Feb 25th & 26th but a key person was killed two days ago:

    Bishop David O’Connell

    All plans came to a screeching halt.

    I have decided to publish the pitch deck to a large extent and I will make more modules public.

    In short, it is a moneyless barter economy of acts of service aimed at the young and elderly. Think ROTC meets Game of Thrones meets Star Fleet Academy LARP neighborhood watch, but done orderly and done right.

    Incentives are access to Divine Arcade Clubhouses with drones, 3D printing, VR, the works. Bar to entry is: straight As in school and enrollment in martial arts with belts and a bunch of other criteria. Organized around clubhouses aka Temples, which offer standard community services like lost & found, LBI – local bureau of investigation, lost and found, welfare checks, air (drone) and ground patrol, simple errands, home/away sentinels, pet & plant care, etc.

    But it’s a take one, give one principle. Can’t get another temple favor unless you do a good deed.

    More to come. But right now, security concerns are priority.

  45. 45.

    Chetan Murthy

    I wrote yesterday about this PBS Frontline series: https://www.youtube.com/@frontline/videos

    ”
    Putin and the Presidents”
    It’s a bunch of interviews with people around the Ukraine crisis: the run-up since many years ago.  I’ve watched:

    • Timothy Snyder
    • Ambassador William Taylor
    • Julia Ioffe
    • Secretary Blinken
    • Yevgenia Albats
    • Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch

    And (setting aside Timothy Snyder) I’m struck by how much more ….  *direct* the women are, than the men.  Ambassador Taylor, for all his clear patriotism and obvious support for Ukraine, is …. almost instinctively circumspect.  Ambassador Yovanovitch?  Nops, she’s got NFLTG.  NFLTG.  She’s clear and thorough.  And of course, both Ms. Ioffe and Ms. Albats are both incandescent in their fury and withering in their scorn.  And really iluminating.

    I have one more interview to watch: Eugene Robinson.  Let’s see if he can provide the kind of illumination that Ms. Ioffe, Albats, and Yovanovitch have provided.  [really don’t wanna watch Bolton; maybe I’ll have to]

  46. 46.

    Geminid

    I found AP’s story about President Biden’s trip to Ukraine reprinted in the Times of Israel under the title:

    How to sneak a President into a warzone without anyone noticing.

    Arriving in Ukraine by train, Biden’s Kyiv visit marks the first time in modern history that a U.S. leader has traveled so close to a battlefront not under control U.S. miltary.

    One of AP’s reporters for the story was part of the two-reporter pool that traveled with the President.

    Biden left the White House for Andrews Air Force base at 3:30 a.m. At 4:15 he took off in an  Air Force C-32 (a modified Boeing 757).

    The plane stopped in Germany for refueling and flew on to Rzeszow, Poland with its transponder off. Then Biden boarded a special train for the 10 hour journey to Kiev and was welcomed by the U.S. ambassador around 8 a.m. local time.

    A number of Kyiv streets were cordoned off, which let citizens know something big was up. The absence of traffic also made for an unusually quiet scene as Presidents Biden and Zelenskyy walked together on city streets.

    The TOI article has a great picture of the two Presidents standing in the foreground with the white-walled, golden domed St. Michael’s Cathedral behind them.The article describes how, just as the cathedral bells rang at 11:30 a.m., air raid sirens sounded. The “all clear” notice went out shortly after 1 p.m., as Bidens train left the station on its way back to Poland.

  49. 49.

    J R in WV

    Massively impressed with President Biden’s courage! As well as with the political meaning of this event in Eastern European geopolitics.

    I hope all of Europe unites to provide Ukraine with everything they need to prosecute their defensive battles against the Russian Orcs committing horrible war crimes throughout Ukraine!

    Until VVPutin is in custody in The Hague and on trial for his role leading the monsters  committing these war crimes,  Russia must be barred from the Global  Community and economy,  regardless of the damage this  may cause the people of Russia,  who must share their responsibility for the destruction of Ukraine at the hands of the Russian  military.

    Thanks to Adam for the huge amount of work he has done over the past year, and congratulations on the information preserved in these 360-odd posts and threads!! B J jackals included in this successful community effort led by Professor Doctor Silverman!

Comments are closed.