Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

It’s the corruption, stupid.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

“Just close your eyes and kiss the girl and go where the tilt-a-whirl takes you.” ~OzarkHillbilly

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

Thanks to your bullshit, we are now under siege.

Our messy unity will be our strength.

People identifying as christian while ignoring christ and his teachings is a strange thing indeed.

There are no moderate republicans – only extremists and cowards.

Of course you can have champagne before noon. That’s why orange juice was invented.

We cannot abandon the truth and remain a free nation.

Republicans got rid of McCarthy. Democrats chose not to save him.

T R E 4 5 O N

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

I’d hate to be the candidate who lost to this guy.

Fight them, without becoming them!

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

I am pretty sure these ‘journalists’ were not always such a bootlicking sycophants.

This chaos was totally avoidable.

People really shouldn’t expect the government to help after they watched the GOP drown it in a bathtub.

You are either for trump or for democracy. Pick one.

Come on, media. you have one job. start doing it.

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

Many life forms that would benefit from greater intelligence, sadly, do not have it.

Republicans choose power over democracy, every day.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 366: A Year and a Day

War for Ukraine Day 366: A Year and a Day

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Address by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy “February. The year of invincibility”

24 February 2023 – 08:03

Great People of Great Ukraine!

A year ago, on this day, from this very place, at about seven in the morning, I addressed you with a short statement. It lasted only 67 seconds. It contained the two most important things, then and now. That Russia started a full-scale war against us. And that we are strong. We are ready for anything. We will defeat everyone. Because we are Ukraine!

That is how February 24, 2022 began. The longest day of our lives. The hardest day of our modern history. We woke up early and haven’t fallen asleep since.

Some people were afraid, some were shocked, some did not know what to say, but everyone felt what to do. There were traffic jams on the roads, but many people were going to get weapons. Queues were forming. Some people stood at the borders, but many went to military registration and enlistment offices, and territorial defense units.

We did not raise the white flag, and began to defend the blue and yellow. We were not afraid, we did not break down, we did not surrender. The symbol of this was the border guards of Zmiinyi Island and the route they told the Russian warship.

Our faith has grown stronger. Our morale has been reinforced. We endured the first day of a full-scale war. We didn’t know what would happen tomorrow, but we realized for sure: every tomorrow is worth fighting for!

And we fought. And we fiercely fought for every day. And we endured the second day. And then – the third. Three days that we were predicted to last. They threatened that in 72 hours we would not exist. But we survived the fourth day. And then the fifth. And today we have been standing for exactly one year. And we still know: every tomorrow is worth fighting for!

I am grateful to all those who make our resistance possible. These are all our defenders. The Armed Forces of Ukraine. Ground Forces, our infantry and tank-men. Air and Naval Forces. Artillery, air defense, paratroopers, intelligence, border guards. The Special Operations Forces, the Security Service, the National Guard, the police, the territorial defense units – all our security and defense forces. Thanks to you, Ukraine stands. And we endured the furious month and the furious beginning of the war.

And then came spring. New attacks, new wounds, new pain. Everyone saw the true nature of our enemy. The shelling of the maternity hospital, the drama theater in Mariupol, Mykolaiv Regional State Administration, Svobody Square in Kharkiv, the train station in Kramatorsk. We saw Bucha, Irpin, Borodyanka. The whole world clearly realized what the Russian world really means. What Russia is capable of.

At the same time, the world saw what Ukraine is capable of. These are the new heroes. Defenders of Kyiv, defenders of Azovstal. New feats performed by entire cities. Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Mariupol, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Hostomel, Volnovakha, Bucha, Irpin, Okhtyrka. Hero Cities. The capitals of invincibility. New symbols. And with that, new assessments and forecasts for Ukraine.

The first month of the war. And the first turning point in the war. The first changes in the world’s perception of Ukraine. It did not fall in three days. It stopped the second army of the world.

We took new hits every day, learned about new tragedies every day, but we endured thanks to those who gave it all they got every day. For the sake of others.

These are our medics who rescue wounded soldiers on the frontline, perform surgeries under fire, deliver babies in bomb shelters, and stay on duty for days and weeks. Like our rescuers and firefighters who pull people out of the rubble and fire 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. And our railroad workers who have been evacuating hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians since the beginning of the war without sleep or rest.

And then there were the first offensives, the first achievements, the first liberated territories. The first and not the last Chornobaivka. Expulsion of the occupiers from the Kyiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions. Our Stuhna. Vilkha. Our Neptune and the sinking Moskva cruiser. The first Ramstein. And the second ever Lend-Lease.

Ukraine has surprised the world. Ukraine has inspired the world. Ukraine has united the world. There are thousands of words to prove it, but a few will suffice. HIMARS, Patriot, Abrams, IRIS-T, Challenger, NASAMS, Leopard.

I thank all of our partners, allies and friends who have stood side by side with us throughout the year. I am glad that the international anti-Putin coalition has grown so much that it requires a separate address. I will deliver it shortly. Definitely.

I also thank our foreign policy army. Divisions of our diplomats, ambassadors, representatives in international organizations and institutions. All those who are fighting the occupiers with fire and sword of international law, achieving new sanctions and recognition of the terrorist state as a terrorist state.

The war changed the fate of many families. It rewrote the history of our families. It changed our customs and traditions. Grandfathers used to tell their grandchildren how they beat the Nazis. Now grandchildren tell their grandfathers how they beat the Rashists. Mothers and grandmothers used to knit scarves, now they weave camouflage nets. Children used to ask Santa for smartphones and gadgets, but now they give pocket money and raise money for our soldiers.

In fact, every Ukrainian has lost someone in the past year. A father, a son, a brother, a mother, a daughter, a sister. A loved one. A close friend, colleague, neighbor, acquaintance. My condolences.

Almost everyone has at least one contact in their phone who will never pick up the phone again. Will never answer a text message “How are you?”. These simple words have acquired a new meaning during the year of war. Every day, millions of Ukrainians have written or spoken this question to their loved ones millions of times. Every day, someone did not receive an answer. Every day, the occupiers killed our relatives and friends.

We will not erase their names from the phone or from our own memory. We will never forget them. We will never forgive that. We will never rest until the Russian murderers face deserved punishment. The punishment of the International Tribunal. The judgment of God. Of our warriors. Or all of them together.

The verdict is obvious. 9 years ago, the neighbor became an aggressor. A year ago, the aggressor became an executioner, looter and terrorist. We have no doubt that they will be held accountable. We have no doubt that we will win.

In the summer we felt it. We passed 100 days of war. We received EU candidate status, returned Zmiinyi Island, heard the first “Bavovna” in Crimea, saw fireworks at the occupier’s warehouses and Antonivskyi Bridge.

August was the first month when the occupiers did not take a single Ukrainian city. Threats and ultimata about denazification were replaced by gestures of goodwill. And we felt then that our victory was inevitable. It is close. It will come.

And then came the autumn. And our counteroffensive. The liberation of Izyum, Balakliya, Kupyansk, Lyman, the Kherson region and the city of Kherson. We saw how people there met our military. How they cherished the Ukrainian flag. How they were waiting and returned to Ukraine.

I want to address those who are still waiting. Our citizens who are now under temporary occupation. Ukraine has not abandoned you, has not forgotten about you, has not given up on you. One way or another, we will liberate all our lands. We will do everything for Ukraine to return. And to all those who are now forced to stay abroad, we will do everything for you to return to Ukraine. We will do everything to make it possible.

We will fight and bring back every single one of our captive soldiers. Only all this together will be a victory.

We can see it even in the dark. Despite the constant massive missile attacks and power outages. We see the light of this victory.

In their memories of their first feelings on February 24, 2022, people mention shock, pain, and uncertainty. A year after the full-scale invasion, the faith in victory is 95%. The main emotion we feel when we think about Ukraine is pride.

For every Ukrainian man, every Ukrainian woman. Pride for us. We have become one big army. We have become a team where someone finds, someone packs, someone brings, but everyone donates.

I am grateful to our people, grateful to our multi-million army of volunteers and citizens who do care, who can collect and get everything necessary.

We have become one. Our journalists and media are a united front fighting against lies and panic.

We have become one family. There are no more strangers among us. Ukrainians today are all fellows. Ukrainians have sheltered Ukrainians, opened their homes and hearts to those who were forced to flee the war.

We withstand all threats, shelling, cluster bombs, cruise missiles, kamikaze drones, blackouts, and cold. We are stronger than that.

It was a year of resilience. A year of care. A year of bravery. A year of pain. A year of hope. A year of endurance. A year of unity.

The year of invincibility. The furious year of invincibility.

Its main result is that we endured. We were not defeated. And we will do everything to gain victory this year!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Bakhmut (newest first), Kreminna, and

Bakhmut:

Make it hot!

The tweet translates as:

Well, good 😍 Fighters of the 93rd OMBr “Kholodniy Yar” attack the occupiers in Bakhmut. And with the help of BMP-2, they lightly explain to the Wagnerites, who were hiding in the building, that it would be better for them to stay in prisons in Russia 🤣 Video: 93rd OMBr

Here’s a longer version:

Les Echos‘s correspondent in Ukraine, Guillaume Ptak, has published some video reporting via his twitter feed. Here’s a bit of it:

More at the link!

Touch not a cat bot a glove!

Estonia:

This may provide some clarity to the whisperings about the PRC providing military support in the form of weaponry or other military material to Russia:

Speaking of the PRC:

China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis

2023-02-24 09:00

1. Respecting the sovereignty of all countries. Universally recognized international law, including the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter, must be strictly observed. The sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be effectively upheld. All countries, big or small, strong or weak, rich or poor, are equal members of the international community. All parties should jointly uphold the basic norms governing international relations and defend international fairness and justice. Equal and uniform application of international law should be promoted, while double standards must be rejected.

2. Abandoning the Cold War mentality. The security of a country should not be pursued at the expense of others. The security of a region should not be achieved by strengthening or expanding military blocs. The legitimate security interests and concerns of all countries must be taken seriously and addressed properly. There is no simple solution to a complex issue. All parties should, following the vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security and bearing in mind the long-term peace and stability of the world, help forge a balanced, effective and sustainable European security architecture. All parties should oppose the pursuit of one’s own security at the cost of others’ security, prevent bloc confrontation, and work together for peace and stability on the Eurasian Continent.

3. Ceasing hostilities. Conflict and war benefit no one. All parties must stay rational and exercise restraint, avoid fanning the flames and aggravating tensions, and prevent the crisis from deteriorating further or even spiraling out of control. All parties should support Russia and Ukraine in working in the same direction and resuming direct dialogue as quickly as possible, so as to gradually deescalate the situation and ultimately reach a comprehensive ceasefire.

4. Resuming peace talks. Dialogue and negotiation are the only viable solution to the Ukraine crisis. All efforts conducive to the peaceful settlement of the crisis must be encouraged and supported. The international community should stay committed to the right approach of promoting talks for peace, help parties to the conflict open the door to a political settlement as soon as possible, and create conditions and platforms for the resumption of negotiation. China will continue to play a constructive role in this regard.

5. Resolving the humanitarian crisis. All measures conducive to easing the humanitarian crisis must be encouraged and supported. Humanitarian operations should follow the principles of neutrality and impartiality, and humanitarian issues should not be politicized. The safety of civilians must be effectively protected, and humanitarian corridors should be set up for the evacuation of civilians from conflict zones. Efforts are needed to increase humanitarian assistance to relevant areas, improve humanitarian conditions, and provide rapid, safe and unimpeded humanitarian access, with a view to preventing a humanitarian crisis on a larger scale. The UN should be supported in playing a coordinating role in channeling humanitarian aid to conflict zones.

6. Protecting civilians and prisoners of war (POWs). Parties to the conflict should strictly abide by international humanitarian law, avoid attacking civilians or civilian facilities, protect women, children and other victims of the conflict, and respect the basic rights of POWs. China supports the exchange of POWs between Russia and Ukraine, and calls on all parties to create more favorable conditions for this purpose.

7. Keeping nuclear power plants safe. China opposes armed attacks against nuclear power plants or other peaceful nuclear facilities, and calls on all parties to comply with international law including the Convention on Nuclear Safety (CNS) and resolutely avoid man-made nuclear accidents. China supports the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in playing a constructive role in promoting the safety and security of peaceful nuclear facilities.

8. Reducing strategic risks. Nuclear weapons must not be used and nuclear wars must not be fought. The threat or use of nuclear weapons should be opposed. Nuclear proliferation must be prevented and nuclear crisis avoided. China opposes the research, development and use of chemical and biological weapons by any country under any circumstances.

9. Facilitating grain exports. All parties need to implement the Black Sea Grain Initiative signed by Russia, Türkiye, Ukraine and the UN fully and effectively in a balanced manner, and support the UN in playing an important role in this regard. The cooperation initiative on global food security proposed by China provides a feasible solution to the global food crisis.

10. Stopping unilateral sanctions. Unilateral sanctions and maximum pressure cannot solve the issue; they only create new problems. China opposes unilateral sanctions unauthorized by the UN Security Council. Relevant countries should stop abusing unilateral sanctions and “long-arm jurisdiction” against other countries, so as to do their share in deescalating the Ukraine crisis and create conditions for developing countries to grow their economies and better the lives of their people.

11. Keeping industrial and supply chains stable. All parties should earnestly maintain the existing world economic system and oppose using the world economy as a tool or weapon for political purposes. Joint efforts are needed to mitigate the spillovers of the crisis and prevent it from disrupting international cooperation in energy, finance, food trade and transportation and undermining the global economic recovery.

12. Promoting post-conflict reconstruction. The international community needs to take measures to support post-conflict reconstruction in conflict zones. China stands ready to provide assistance and play a constructive role in this endeavor.

This is all playing out as the US and its allies and partners are leveling new sanctions on this aiding Russia. The Financial Times has the details:

Ukraine’s western allies have warned of “severe costs” for countries helping Russia evade sanctions as concern mounts about China’s role in Moscow’s war economy and the conflict enters its second year.

Washington announced fresh sanctions on Friday against more than 200 entities “across Europe, Asia and the Middle East that are supporting Russia’s war effort” and banned five Chinese groups from acquiring US technology.

In co-ordinated steps ahead of a virtual G7 meeting with Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the UK also unveiled sanctions, while the EU and Japan finalised their own trade bans.

“We call on third countries or other international actors who seek to evade or undermine our measures to cease providing material support to Russia’s war, or face severe costs,” the G7 leaders said after the summit.

“To deter this activity around the world, we are taking actions against third-country actors materially supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine.”

Much more at the link!

Meduza has some new reporting on Prigozhin:

Evgeny Prigozhin, the ex-convict who founded Russia’s now-infamous Wagner Group back in 2014, spent much of the last week publicly blasting Russia’s Defense Ministry for failing to provide ammunition to his mercenary company. Then, on Thursday, he reported that his outbursts had worked. Despite Prigozhin’s claims that the issue had life-or-death consequences for Russian fighters, Russia’s state-controlled news outlets devoted almost no coverage to the dispute. According to a new report, that was no accident: citing sources from the Kremlin-controlled media and the Russian Defense Ministry, the independent outlet Verstka reported Thursday that state journalists have been ordered not to quote Prigozhin unless absolutely necessary — and that the Putin administration has a smear campaign against the Wagner boss ready to launch if needed.

A number of Russian state-backed media outlets have been instructed not to quote statements made by Wagner mercenary group founder Evgeny Prigozhin concerning “non-neutral topics,” the independent media outlet Verstka reported on Thursday, citing a source from one of the agencies. In addition, according to a source close to the Russian Defense Ministry, the Russian authorities have prepared a “media smear campaign” against Prigozhin, but have decided not to launch it for the time being.

An analysis by Verstka’s journalists found that the Kremlin-controlled news agencies RIA Novosti, TASS, and Interfax have indeed stopped quoting Prigozhin’s statements in recent weeks, with the exception of statements directly related to Wagner Group’s battlefield activity.

“In a meeting this week, the higher-ups repeated to us that the block on Prigozhin that we put in place in January remains in effect,” said the source from one state outlet. “We’re banned from mentioning him unless it’s absolutely necessary, we’re banned from quoting him, except in cases where he’s the first person to report news about successes on the front line. For example, if they captured Soledar or reached the outskirts of Bakhmut.” The source close to the Defense Ministry confirmed that the ban was imposed in mid-January.

More at the link.

And speaking of Prigozhin, The Financial Times reports that he’s got big troubles:

The Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin often brags about his supposedly fearless exploits on Ukraine’s battlefields, but his most reckless manoeuvre may have been at home: flying too high in the Kremlin.

For months, the founder of the Wagner Group has been sparring with Russia’s military over a series of calamitous defeats in Ukraine, in what has become an epic Moscow power struggle over the war.

But in recent days Prigozhin has resorted to increasingly angry rants, a sign of what Kremlin watchers see as his waning clout in Vladimir Putin’s inner circle as the defence establishment closes ranks and reasserts its dominance.

Prigozhin this week was left to cry “treason” over the military allegedly starving his men of ammunition, ending his prison recruitment campaign and stifling praise of Wagner in state media. “There’s a risk he could end up like Icarus,” a person close to Prigozhin said.

His notoriety has in large part arisen out of the ham-fisted execution of Russia’s invasion by Valery Gerasimov, chief of Russia’s general staff, and defence minister Sergei Shoigu.

When rare victories came — such as capturing the town of Soledar — Prigozhin crowed that it was the achievement of Wagner recruits, much to the annoyance of the military leadership.

Among the hardliners, Prigozhin was a natural leader. His longstanding ties to Putin date back to when the then deputy mayor of St Petersburg spent evenings at his restaurant in the 1990s. It had earned Prigozhin a direct line to the Russian president, according to two people who know them.

His ascent within the Kremlin came with Putin’s personal approval after the president realised the scale of the army’s disastrous performance in Ukraine under defence minister Shoigu, said the person close to Prigozhin.

The limelight emboldened Prigozhin so much that he set his sights on ousting Shoigu, one of Putin’s oldest allies, according to the Wagner leader’s associate and two senior western officials.

“Putin started doubting victory because he realised the generals can’t be trusted. So he started seeking out other opinions,” the person close to Prigozhin said. “If Shoigu goes, we win. Shoigu is our biggest enemy, not the Ukrainians.”

“Prigozhin had become his own centre of power. It wasn’t clear who he or Wagner reports to. And Prigozhin can call Putin directly, which most Russian generals cannot do. That was always a strength he had,” said Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, who studies the Russian armed forces. Prigozhin’s willingness to take on Russia’s top brass won him allies among leaders of other irregular forces who shared his hatred of Shoigu and Gerasimov, the architect of the army’s failed blitzkrieg on Kyiv last February, according to two people who know him and two western officials.

But when Putin put Gerasimov in sole charge of operations in January, the balance of power changed.

More at the link!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There’s no new Patron tweets or TikTok videos tonight, so here’s some adjacent material to close things out:

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

61Comments

  3. 3.

    Alison Rose

    Once again, Zelenskyy leaves me in tears. I swear, he has to be the best political public speaker I’ve ever seen, whether historical or during my lifetime. This moment especially:

    I want to address those who are still waiting. Our citizens who are now under temporary occupation. Ukraine has not abandoned you, has not forgotten about you, has not given up on you.

    The words, the voice, the expression…got me square in the heart. I spent the day reading the book of his speeches they put out late last year. It starts with his inaugural address in 2019 and ends with his speech on Ukrainian Independence Day last year. It’s a really terrific selection of speeches, and shows the progression over time of both the nation and himself. Frustrates me when people still make comments about him being a comedian before, as though he were not also and always a brilliant patriot.

    On this first anniversary, my prayer is that there will not be a second one. That instead on February 24, 2024, we will have spent weeks or months celebrating Ukraine’s victory, and that every last orc will long since have slithered back to their caves in russia.

    But as always, and until that day comes, thank you, Adam. You are indispensable.

  4. 4.

    japa21

    @Alison Rose: ​
      I have to admit, I don’t usually read the daily addresses. Today, for some reason I read every word. Just reading the words gave me a lump in my throat. And that phrase you quoted was the same one that hit me the most.
    I will read every one from now one.

  5. 5.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Gin & Tonic: Pretty much. I read it three times and, while I realize they’re high context communicators using diplomatic language that just makes it even more inscrutable, I still am not sure what they’re really trying to convey.

  6. 6.

    EZSmirkzz

    This may provide some clarity to the whisperings about the PRC providing military support in the form of weaponry or other military material

    https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1628872049107116034to Russia:

    FTFY Adam https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1628872049107116034

    FWIW there’s a good read over at dKos about the nature of progressive support for the US support for Ukraine.

    I, surprising no one, disagree with parts of it, but as per the Cranberries Zombie tune, that’s not me inside your head.

    Try not to shoot anyone in the face. (I am aware of all internet traditions.) Thanks for all your hard work this year Adam.

    Maybe not so fixed YMMV

  8. 8.

    Anonymous At Work

    @Adam L Silverman: Isn’t the point to signal that PRC wants Russia and Ukraine to stop fighting and everyone accept Russia’s invasion, so PRC can trade sanctioned good for oil without worrying about being sanctioned itself?

  9. 9.

    Bill Arnold

    @Anonymous At Work:

    The sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be effectively upheld.

    How does one align that with advocating for acceptance of a Russian invasion that grabs territory and then a Russian annexation of that grabbed territory, plus other territory that Russia has not yet grabbed?

  11. 11.

    Gin & Tonic

    Goddamn, this is funny. Reznikov climbs out of a Polish Leopard. Somebody (reporter?) asks him “what’s your first impression?” and he responds – in Polish – “what’s the road to Moscow?”

    Defense Minister Reznikov in a Leopard 2A4 inquired about the route to Moscow 😂 pic.twitter.com/zJAmeRtJ03
    — NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) February 24, 2023

  12. 12.

    Geminid

    @Alison Rose: President Zelenskyy also held a two hour-long press conference today. I’ve seen reporting on it from several sources including CNN and the New York Times. I’m hoping some site comes up with a transcript.

  13. 13.

    Kent

    The Chinese position really makes no sense in a larger geopolitical level.

    If we live in a world in which military aggression and conquest is rewarded then that is a world in which Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and later Indonesia and Philippines decide that they need their own nuclear arsenal.  Is it really in Chinese strategic interest to find itself surrounded by a bunch of new nuclear states

    China thrives in a world in which they can dominate economically rather than militarily.

  14. 14.

    Lyrebird

    @Bill Arnold: It’s a vague platitude, but right after the invasion weren’t they basically siding with the RF?

    It will be interesting to hear more from YY.

  16. 16.

    NutmegAgain

    Need to share this intensely poignant video clip of Prez Zelensky. He’s asked in this interview clip about being able to see his family. This horrible war has cost so many people, so very much.  Link.

  17. 17.

    Aussie Sheila

    Thank you Adam for your faithful work. Sometimes I can hardly bare to read your posts, but they necessary and for me at least, provide a useful guide to being rational about this most terrible war against a people.

  21. 21.

    Alison Rose

    @NutmegAgain: Oh my, thank you for sharing that. Every photo and video I’ve seen of him and Olena together, you can tell these two absolutely adore each other with every ounce of their beings. I love that he’s allowing himself to be vulnerable here talking about her and their kids.

  23. 23.

    Almost Retired

    Am I being overly emotional to note that this Zelenskyy speech should rank up there with “we cannot hallow this ground” and “we shall fight them on the beaches” as one of the greatest wartime speeches?

  30. 30.

    zhena gogolia

    I finally brought myself to read the NYT article on Biden’s Warsaw speech. I couldn’t believe my eyes. It was a “both sides” narrative! “Mr. Biden blamed Mr. Putin . . . But Mr. Putin blamed Mr. Biden . . .” and on and on. WHAT COUNTRY DO THEY THINK THEY LIVE IN?

  31. 31.

    Ruckus

    @zhena gogolia:

    FTFNYFT is far worse than useless.

    They are money grubbers with a printing press.

    They think their shit doesn’t stink. It does, all you have to do is read what they print and the stench will overwhelm you.

    They are faux not news on paper. Wealthy assholes who want to be far wealthier and don’t give a damn how they get there.

    They are useless because they aren’t a newspaper but a political reporting business that has decided that rich people screwing everyone else in the world is not just OK it is mandatory.

  34. 34.

    Tehanu

    A number of Russian state-backed media outlets have been instructed not to quote statements made by Wagner mercenary group founder Evgeny Prigozhin concerning “non-neutral topics,” …. In addition, according to a source close to the Russian Defense Ministry, the Russian authorities have prepared a “media smear campaign” against Prigozhin, but have decided not to launch it for the time being.

    Rooting for injuries and chowing down on popcorn ….

    @Aussie Sheila:  Me too. It’s amazing how Adam keeps this up and I know I don’t tell him often enough how much I appreciate it.

  35. 35.

    trucmat

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Thank you for continuing this series. I found it early in the war and with few exceptions have tried to read everything each day. The fact that this site is ahead of the NYT and other writers is clear. Better understanding of the conflict is to be had by reading you and your commenters than the so-called paper of record. It’s appreciated.

  36. 36.

    zhena gogolia

    @Ruckus: I really think they must have some (financial?) connection to Russia that we don’t know about. I know people don’t want to give them clicks, but this article must be read to be believed. It shook me deeply. (I don’t read their political coverage at all as a rule, so I have no idea if this is typical or not. I assume it is.) In talking about Biden’s message, they put scare quotes around “tyrants” in “he warned Mr. Putin and other ‘tyrants.'”

  37. 37.

    Another Scott

    @Jay: I knew someone would note the destroyed russian tank in front of their embassy in Berlin first.

    A long piece on what it took to get it there (default in German, Google translate works pretty well (with some, er, errors) on it, or use the drop-down menu upper right to change the language).

    […]

    In June 2022, I sent a very brief email to the Ukrainian embassy in Berlin:

    “Dear Sir or Madam,

    I think it would make sense to exhibit at least one shot down tank in Berlin, similar to the one next to the InterContinental Hotel in Kyiv. However, it is unclear to me how such a tank can be borrowed and legally exported from Ukraine. Do you think such an exhibition makes sense? If yes, who can I contact?

    Regards, Enno”

    The answer came in minutes, I was forwarded to the appropriate person in charge. It has been a great help ever since. But what exactly does the administrative process look like? I have experience with events, having organized Europe’s largest history festival, the Historiale, in Berlin for a long time. So it all started on June 28, 2022 with a harmless application to the district office – followed by a request to discuss the whole, somewhat unusual thing.

    We knew it could get complicated. So it is better to coordinate everything with everyone involved beforehand and only then take action. I had no idea what kind of disaster I was about to steer into here. The tanks were ready in Prague and Warsaw, everything had been clarified so far, we just had to load them up and drive to Berlin. I would have borne the cost. From my point of view a matter of days. And then… nothing… nothing happened. Like in the western, when the straw bales roll by. The completed form to another office in the administration center for art and culture projects also remained unanswered.

    […]

    (via Oryx)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  38. 38.

    Ha Nguyen

    I detest the FYNYT.  When they bought Wordle, I stopped playing Wordle. I refuse to do the FYNYT crossword, even though I enjoy crosswords. I never read any article if I know it comes from that rag. May their printing press DIAF.

  39. 39.

    dr. luba

    I went to a memorial service for Ukraine at our (Ukrainian orthodox) church tonight.  Quite moving. We had a reception afterwards, and had 5 local politicians speak– congresswomen Rashida Tlaib and Haley Stevens, state senator Stephanie Chang, state representative Noah Arbit, and Warren mayor James Fouts.  All spoke of their strong support for Ukraine, and the initiative they had authored or supported.

    All are democrats. All tried to keep the talk non-political, and did so, for the most part.  MTG was called out briefly.

    We had only one republican show up–former state representative Rocky Raczkowski, a non-insane member of the GOP (unlike its current leadership in Michigan), who spoke movingly and well.  He was not the only GOPer invited.

    There were several “religious” guests–a local Hindu leader who’s been raising money for Ukraine, a Roman Catholic priest, and the head of a Jewish organization that has been raising funds to supply Ukraine’s military with clothing and other goods. The latter was born in Ukraine when it was still part of the USSR, and spoke of our two people’s thousand year relationship, and how we are really one people.

    There were also many representatives of local Ukrainian civic organizations, including my cousin, speaking for UCARE, Inc.  Unsurprisingly, no one kept to the 3 minute time limit on talks….

  44. 44.

    Lyrebird

    @Sebastian: I don’t have any answer key, but it came off as you claiming to have a question to try and get more traffic to your website.  No mention of “hey is this an open thread” let alone FLOTUS.  And “I apologize.. but…” is not a great diplomatic move.  I get taken for a concern troll because of how I talk, so I can relate if you feel misunderstood.  That’s why I answered your question.

  45. 45.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Gin & Tonic:

    @Adam L Silverman:

    I read it a couple of times yesterday as well. It just restates std. Chinese talking points since the beginning of the current invasion. I think the only item of note is explicitly cautioning against endangering nuclear power plants.

    It is always unlikely that China would sincerely seek to play mediator right now, that Russia would sincerely accede to being mediated, or that China would be an effective mediator in this situation even if there is a real chance at a negotiated settlement. I posted Andrew Small’s Twitter thread on this subject in yesterday’s post, which I think is best summary I have seen.

    The next checkpoint to see if China actually wants to facilitate the conditions for a negotiated settlement is when Xi visits Russia at the end of Apr. or beginning of May, & what pronouncement come out of that meeting.

  46. 46.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Anonymous At Work: For the past 6 mo., China & India (perhaps Türkiye, as well)  have been selling oil & gas that they had bought from Russia at bargain basement prices, & selling them to desperate EU customers on the spot market at huge mark up, making bank in the process.

    Of course, since oil & LNG is large fungible once loaded onto tankers/carriers. China & India do not have to conduct transaction w/ actual gas/oil bought from Russia. They can place the oil/gas imported from Russia into their strategic reserves, while selling the oil  bought from Saudi Arabia & gas from Qatar to the EU, the effect is the same.

  47. 47.

    Aussie Sheila

    @YY_Sima Qian: My take is that China will be watching just how effective US sanctions are on Russia, and will calibrate future moves accordingly. They aren’t irrational actors, unlike Putin, and despite Xi’s personal power, it’s not unlimited, nor is it unconstrained.

    I don’t think the CCP elite relishes a trade or sanctions war with its customers or suppliers  just yet.

  48. 48.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Lyrebird: It’s a restatement of basic principles that are inherently in tension, & as such are platitudinal pablum. It is not a “peace plan”. The tension becomes glaring contradictions if one starts to put country names in there.

    The “Beijing Straddle” is characterized by the  objectives of maintaining traditional Chinese stance of respecting sovereignty & territorial integrity above all else, alignment w/ Russia at the strategic level (in service of the Great Power rivalry w/ the US) w/o getting trapped w/ Russia at the tactical & operational levels, & maintaining stable relations w/ the West & thus continued access to western markets & technologies. These objectives have been placed under almost irreconcilable tension by Putin’s current invasion  of Ukraine.

    (On grand strategic terms, Putin’s re-invasion of Ukraine is a tactical/operational issue.)

    @Bill Arnold:

    @Kent:

    The only way the square can be circled is if Russia withdraws to pre-2014 internationally recognized borders (w/ possible exception of Crimea), Ukraine in the EU but not NATO, & all sanctions lifted from Russia. However, there is no path getting there, & no Chinese pronouncement will ever acknowledge is that Putin is the main obstacle.

    Also note #12, which is essentially a plea to allow Chinese firms a piece of the post-war reconstruction pie. Not going to happen if China or even rogue Chinese firms are selling lethal weapons to Russia in service of continued warfare in Ukraine. It is already rather unlikely as things stands now, since China has not been helpful in anyway to Ukraine since the start of the current invasion.

  49. 49.

    Aussie Sheila

    @YY_Sima Qian: The ‘belt and road’ through Eurasia is also tricky for any Chinese tilt towards Russia. Very tricky navigating territory all round here for China. The Chinese regime is neither suicidal nor sentimental. I think they will be maintaining a ‘wait and see’ posture until it is clearer which way things are going to go. Which makes it more important that Ukraine gets what it needs to bust the Russians out of their country before the end of the year.

  50. 50.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Aussie Sheila: Yes, China’s strategy in response to the current invasion has been to muddle through & avoid becoming the focus of attention. That is why suggestions that China (meaning at the level of Xi & the central leadership) is considering to change their stance of over a year & start supplying lethal weapons to Russia does not compute.

  51. 51.

    Aussie Sheila

    @YY_Sima Qian: I agree. Whatever else it is, the Chinese leadership is neither stupid nor irrational. Which makes it a far better interlocutor than Putin’s Russia. The Chinese leadership simply doesn’t have the bandwidth to control public opinion in the way Russia does, despite what a lot of observers think. A plunge in Chinese living standards will not be silently tolerated in the way that Russia’s elites can expect.

  52. 52.

    Aussie Sheila

    @YY_Sima Qian: I agree. Whatever else it is, the Chinese leadership is neither stupid nor irrational. Which makes it a far better interlocutor than Putin’s Russia. The Chinese leadership simply doesn’t have the bandwidth to control public opinion in the way Russia does, despite what a lot of observers think. A plunge in Chinese living standards will not be silently tolerated in the way that Russia’s elites can expect.

  54. 54.

    Sebastian

    @Lyrebird:

    my good man, I don’t take any of your money or any of your data because I have enough of my own, thankyouverymuch.

    at no point were you asked to give data or money. we don’t want it. we don’t need it.

    that is precisely the problem we are trying to address.

    it is exasperating to be in a constant state of distrust.

  55. 55.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Aussie Sheila: We are already seeing signs of domestic discontent in China under current economic difficulties:

    1) At the height of domestic triumphalism, in the late 10s or post-Wuhan lockdown, Chinese state media & social media were full of haughty displays of purported Party achievements & schadenfreude at perceived misery overseas, & sincere or astroturfed the comments were overwhelming supportive of such narrative; now these kind of articles & posts are rarer, when they do appear they are often quickly ratioed by irate commenters asking the media to pay more attention to domestic challenges, or a wall of deleted comments, or pulled altogether

    2) A single protestor that hung posters at a busy overpass in Beijing during the 20th Party Congress was quickly arrested, but his message (advocating removal of Xi and overthrow of the CCP regime) has found some resonance among some quarters in the population despite the overwhelming censorship, & anonymous protestors have been reposting his messages in restroom stalls & walls of abandoned buildings around the country (though still very much isolated incidents)

    3) It was surprising how quickly some of the “White Paper” protestors in late Nov. 2022 turned political in their demands, aimed straight at Xi & the CCP regime; while protests are common in China, they are rarely explicitly political, & targeting central leadership is unheard of

    4) Many local governments at under severe financial distress, a few of them have resorted to implicit brinksmanship w/ provincial/national authorities – halting certain public services & publicly citing lack of funding or expected rebates, allowing public anger & protests to mount (to a degree), to force their superiors’ hands to help resolve their financial conundrum

    While none of these developments even portend anything that might threaten the regime in the foreseeable future, both Xi & the CCP regime still draw high levels of public support overall, & the CCP regime retains plenty of ameliorative & coercive tools to prevent any of the discontent from gaining critical mass, the trends has to be alarming to Xi & the Chinese leadership. I expect they will be focused on addressing domestic challenges for the foreseeable future, & minimize external shock as much as possible. That is why China has been seeking to stabilize & improve relations w/ Western countries since Nov. last year. I find it hard to believe that Xi or the Chinese leadership is suddenly considering to spike their efforts by jumping waist deep into the Ukraine war, explicitly on Russia’s side.

  56. 56.

    Aussie Sheila

    @YY_Sima Qian: Yes. I think people underestimate the real concern that CCP elites hold about popular opinion in China. It’s not at all as the US media likes to portray. No democracy, of course. But no regime can really afford to ignore popular opinion forever. Especially one that has tied its fortunes to expectations of rising prosperity for everyone.

  58. 58.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    Yes, China’s strategy in response to the current invasion has been to muddle through & avoid becoming the focus of attention.

    The puzzling thing about the MFA statement is that it accomplishes no positive purposs while attracting attention. The intended audience cannot be Ukraine’s NATO allies, who are certain to ignore its every prescription. And it will change no minds in Russia. So what were they trying to accomplish with this detailed, obviously self-serving high-profile statement?

    Perhaps the audience is domestic? The whole thing is a bit reminiscent of Mao-era sloganeering—aspirational, dogmatic, and utterly unreal, so perhaps it is performing a similar sort of domestic signaling function? But I can’t imagine what that would be, unless there is evidence of support for a change in Chinese Ukraine policy among party cadres, and Xi wants ro reassert control.

  59. 59.

    pluky

    @Alison Rose: That whole “but he’s just a comedian” line drives me crazy. He has a law degree and was the CEO of one of the largest media companies in Eastern Europe. Oh, and by the way, comedy is hard!

  60. 60.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: I think China is seeing the current Russian position as untenable & unsustainable, & fears a Russian collapse that results in regime change & possible dissolution of the Russian Federation. Perhaps China is considering how to achieve a negotiated settlement that might forestall such an outcome. One should definitely not interpret the MFA fact sheet as a peace “plan” or “proposal”.

    It is a statement of the principles that China believes (or claims to believe) should govern any negotiated outcome. I am very skeptical if China is willing or able to follow through w/ anything more concrete, I can’t imagine under what circumstance would Putin play ball, & I am very skeptical China will be an effective mediator/facilitator even if Xi can get Putin to play ball.

    The audience is not primarily domestic, because it is not getting that much play in domestic media (it is an MFA press release, not a Xi speech), & people are not really following the war in Ukraine anymore. I think the audience is the Global South & any member of the Western Coalition who might be wavering. If China intends to do anything more substantial, this document is merely laying the 1st stepping stone.

    My suggestion is to file this document away, & see what, if anything, comes out of it down the line.

  61. 61.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Sebastian: When you derail a thread with the very first post, and then proceed to walls of text with vague and inchoate requests, and follow it up by gratuitously insulting the members of this community, distrust is naturally what you will get.

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