Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

Bark louder, little dog.

Dear Washington Post, you are the darkness now.

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

President Musk and Trump are both poorly raised, coddled 8 year old boys.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!

We need to vote them all out and restore sane Democratic government.

There are no moderate republicans – only extremists and cowards.

They want us to be overwhelmed and exhausted. Focus. Resist. Oppose.

The fight for our country is always worth it. ~Kamala Harris

When we show up, we win.

… pundit janitors mopping up after the gop

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

Innocent people do not delay justice.

If you are still in the gop, you are either an extremist yourself, or in bed with those who are.

Giving in to doom is how authoritarians win.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

After dobbs, women are no longer free.

Fear or fury? The choice is ours.

If you still can’t see these things even now, maybe politics isn’t your forte and you should stop writing about it.

Second rate reporter says what?

The worst democrat is better than the best republican.

All hail the time of the bunny!

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 368: Boom Today!

War for Ukraine Day 368: Boom Today!

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At this point I think we can honestly say the plane has gone kaboom. What we don’t know, yet, is who made it go kaboom.

Obligatory:

Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, we are ending this week with a strong diplomatic event – for the first time in 32 years, a high-level delegation from Saudi Arabia visited Ukraine.

This is yet another sign of respect for Ukraine, for our invincibility and strength. Respect of the world.

Monday – the leader of the United States of America, President Joe Biden, was in Kyiv. Director of the International Monetary Fund was in Kyiv.

Tuesday – Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was in Kyiv. And a powerful delegation from the U.S. Congress – representatives of the Republican Party – was also in Kyiv.

Wednesday – a conversation with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. The first conversation in the history of bilateral relations with the President of Uganda. A conversation with the President of Pakistan. A conversation with the President of Estonia.

Thursday – Spanish Prime Minister Sánchez was in Kyiv. A conversation with the President of Egypt. A visit of representatives of the global parliamentary network “United for Ukraine”. These are 13 European states’ parliaments and the European Parliament. Finally, a historically significant vote of the UN General Assembly in favor of our resolution on peace and territorial integrity of our country. 141 countries endorsed it!

Friday, the anniversary of invincibility – Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki was in Kyiv, and Leopards, modern battle tanks, arrived in Ukraine. The result we have been working on for many, many months. The meeting of the G7 leaders and Ukraine’s participation in this meeting. Over the past year, Ukraine has become a traditional participant in top international formats.

Now I had another good meeting with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It was the first official visit of such level by a representative of this country. Of course, we are working on a higher level of visits and relations. But now we have finally reached an interaction.

And this, by the way, brings concrete and sensitive results for Ukrainians, in particular with regard to the release of prisoners of war. I thank our Saudi partners for their cooperation and assistance.

This is one week. And again and again, it’s about strengthening our state, our soldiers, our steadfastness, our international positions.

Today, I met with representatives of our Ukrainian television, the Ukrainian telethon “United News”. Journalists, editors, producers. It was a meaningful online meeting. The reason for the meeting is the anniversary of the telethon and gratitude to everyone who works in it.

But the content was much broader. We talked about intensifying the information work of our state and society. This especially concerns those parts of the world where our diplomacy has not been represented for many decades for various reasons.

And now we have to make sure that we are as powerful as possible in terms of information and diplomacy. We need to make Ukraine’s position absolutely clear in all parts of the world. This is important in our work to ensure the de-occupation of the territory and our planned active actions.

The more people know about Ukraine, the more they understand Ukraine, the more they support Ukraine, the closer our victory becomes.

I once again thank everyone who works in the telethon, who creates this information foundation of our national unity.

Thank you for your dedication to the Ukrainian cause, for your sincere desire to find and develop formats that will strengthen the telethon and, therefore, Ukraine.

And I thank you for your constant search for new methods of work for those who are now in the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine, for finding new ways to access our people in Donetsk, Luhansk, the south of the country, and Crimea.

It is very important that Russia has not succeeded in closing off our people and our land informationally in the part of Ukraine where the terrorists’ tricolor is still present. We have to do everything we can – and we will do everything to ensure that our people have more access to truthful information.

Today, on February 26, we mark the Day of Resistance to the Occupation of Crimea and Sevastopol. And today this conversation is especially important. It is about ensuring an understanding through information and all other means that Ukraine will not abandon anyone, will not leave anyone to the enemy. We will return all our people and everything ours from Russian captivity.

In 2014, Russian aggression began with the seizure of Crimea. It is logical that by liberating Crimea, we will put a historic end to any attempts by Russia to ruin the lives of Ukrainians and all the peoples of Europe and Asia that the Kremlin once claimed to conquer.

International law will prevail here, on the lands of Ukraine: in Donbas, Pryazovia, Kherson region and Crimea.

I thank everyone who brings this victory closer! I thank everyone who helps our people in the temporarily occupied territory!

Glory to each and every one who is now in combat!

By the way, today I am especially grateful to our guys from the 110th separate mechanized brigade who shot down another enemy aircraft near Avdiivka!

Glory to all our heroes of resistance in the temporarily occupied territory! All of Ukraine will be free!

And one more thing. Today we have new decisions of our state on sanctions against those who are involved or help Russia wage war and destroy lives and people.

I signed three decrees to implement the NSDC decisions. Against those Russians who are involved in the abduction of Ukrainian children. Against those representatives of the Russian sports sector who are trying to put sports in the service of aggression. And against those who help maintain mercenary structures in Russia for the war against Ukraine and all free people.

Ukraine’s pressure will continue. The world’s pressure on the terrorist state will continue.

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Bakhmut (oldest first):

Bakhmut:

Vuhledar:

And a very long update from the Ukrainian officer who tweets as Tatarigami. First two tweets in the thread below followed by the rest from the Thread Reader app:

3/16 The Assault Detachment is customizable to mission requirements and consists of 2-3 assault companies, a command unit, an artillery support unit, and other groups: recon, tank, EW, AD, fire support, UAV, Medevac, flamethrowing, assault engineering, reserve, equipment recoveryImage
4/16
Assault unit armament:
– Three T-72 tanks
– Two Zu-23, and 3 MANDAPS
– 12 man-portable flamethrowers
– Six SPGs (2S9),
– Six Towed artillery guns (D30)
– Two AGS-17
– Two Kord HMGs,
– Two ATGMs
– Two sniper pairs.
– BREM-LImage
5/16
The main unit of the assault detachment is an assault company consisting of a command unit, a UAV team, assault platoons, an artillery support platoon, a tank group, a reserve section, artillery support platoons, medevac section.Image
6/16
Assault company armament:
– Four BMP or BMD-2
– One T-72
– Two AGS-17,
– Two Kord HMG
– Two ATGM
– Two sniper pairs
– Two mortars – either 82 or 120 mm mortar
– One D30 or 2S9Image
7/16
The primary component of the combat formation is the assault platoon, which may consist of an advance party, safeguard, command group, and fire support platoon strengthened by additional firepower: AGS, mortar, D-30 gun, armored group, and evacuation squad.Image
8/16
An assault platoon comprises 12-15 members, divided into tactical groups of 3 people, and equipped based on mission requirements. A reserve section can supplement the platoon with additional firepower – machine gunner, assistant machine gunner, riflemen.Image
9/16
Main assault provisions:
• The pause between the assault and artillery fire on fortified positions should be no longer than one minute
• Using UAVs for reconnaissance is advised, but it is not recommended to use them for battle monitoring to avoid the loss of the UAV.Image
10/16
• Occupying abandoned trenches is prohibited because they may have been booby-trapped or could have been prepared as targets for artillery strikes.
• Assaulters cannot evacuate the wounded themselves; they must relay the wounded’s coordinates to the evacuation team.Image
11/16
• The platoon commander controls mortar fire.
• The platoon/company commander decides on artillery targets, but only the unit commander can provide the air support.
• A recommended firing method for the AGS-17 is indirect fire, with a preferred firing range of 600-1700 mImage
12/16
During the assault, the armored group can act as a whole or be divided between platoons. The artillery support platoon’s mortars are distributed between assault platoons, while the artillery gun reports directly to the commander. 
13/16
• During the treeline assault, the platoon should move in a diamond formation
• During an assault, it is prohibited for an assault company or platoon to move through open spaces and they should instead move solely within the treeline. 
14/16
The russians are transitioning from larger structures, such as BTGs, to smaller, more agile assault units. However, they still rely heavily on artillery support. It is uncertain if they have enough scarce weapons like 2S9, mortars, AGS, and ammo to equip all units.By RightQuark - Own work, C...
15/16
This decision seems to be influenced by Wagner’s advances in the Bakhmut area and the decreased availability of vehicles and weaponry since February 2022. Unlike BTG, assault detachments doesn’t seem to have a logistics or MLRS units in their structure. 
16/16
In the upcoming part, which I will be publishing next week, I plan to expand on this topic further and discuss urban tactics and recommendations. I invite you to follow me to stay updated, as social media algorithms may not prioritize war-related content. 

Chernihiv:

Politico Europe has published a war diary by Yegor Firsov. Here is his bio:

Yegor Firsov is a combat paramedic in Avdiikva, Ukraine. He is an activist and a former member of the Ukrainian Parliament.

And here are some excerpts:

AVDIIKVA — A year ago, none of us could imagine our lives as they are now.

Even those of us who trusted the warnings from Washington about Russia’s impending attack had no idea that war would last so long — or that it would change our lives so much. It was easier to imagine ourselves dying in a battle for Kyiv than in a military uniform, sitting in a trench half-full of water in the rain.

When old photos pop up on our phones now, looking at an image from just 12 months ago, we cannot believe they ever happened, that those people we see were once us too.

I serve in the Territorial Defense Brigade now, and most of us weren’t professional military before February 24. Among my comrades-in-arms there are miners, farmers, teachers, even jewelers and dog handlers.

Just one year ago, I was busy building a family house in Bucha. I was professionally active in environmental protection, went to soccer practice and was dreaming of taking my father on his first vacation abroad to Greece. I had no beard; I washed every day; I drove an environmentally friendly car . . .

Recently, I had the opportunity to take a break from the front line and go to Kyiv for a couple days. I visited my unfinished house in Bucha and saw how the city had returned to life after the occupation. The holes on the road from mortar shells had been filled, burnt-out car and equipment had been removed, even the bombed-out houses had been cleaned up.

But all I could see in my mind were scenes from 10 months ago — corpses of civilians with their hands tied behind their backs, bodies stuck in a car.

A few years ago, when I first decided to build this house, my girlfriend and I chose Bucha because it’s near Kyiv but mostly surrounded by forest. It had neat, nice modern houses, smooth roads with clean curbs, parks and cozy cafes.

Bucha will be like this again soon — but not for me. Along with the city itself, Russia destroyed my dreams associated with it. And now, I’ll always see corpses on roadsides, their hands tied behind their backs.

My fellow soldiers and I like to share our pre-war photos. We’re all interested in seeing we did before we put on uniforms.

And immersing ourselves in these photos, drifting from reality into memories, it helps us keep in touch with our pre-war selves, they help us to not harden, to not lose the meaning of why we’re fighting, so that later we can return to these old versions of ourselves and learn to dream again.

Yes, we are all different now. And we perceive life differently.

War cripples not just physically but primarily psychologically. And now, no matter where we are, we wait for the “incoming,” for the shelling. We can’t walk peacefully around our cities — even those of us visiting families in Western Ukraine, a thousand kilometers away.

My friend Andriy would wake everyone up several times a night, shouting “cover, cover, cover” while cramming himself under his bed. It could take us up to half-an-hour to calm him. In the morning, Andriy remembered nothing. Only the video on his phone managed to convince him that he should go see the battalion psychologist.

Among my fellow soldiers is also Roma, who loves to talk about nightclubs he used to own in Bakhmut and Liman. Watching a video of him in a fancy suit, dancing with his wife, I can’t believe I’m looking at my platoon commander. I’ve seen him in skirmishes near Bakhmut. I’ve seen how he fights, how he commands his unit — it feels as if he’s always been in the military. But like many of us, on February 24 he touched a weapon for the first time.

Roman’s clubs have since been razed. The house he lived in with his wife and daughter has gone. It’s as if his life’s been erased — his favorite places, his businesses, his home, his town.

Still, Roma dreams of new nightclubs. He’s saving money from his salary for his post-war business. But I can see that war has greatly transformed him, and I wouldn’t be surprised if after victory, he continues in the military.

Of course, there’s another thread that ties us to our pre-war selves too — our relatives. Everyone has left someone behind — children, a spouse, parents, friends. They are the ones who wait, and who text and call whenever there’s a connection.

But listening to my comrades’ conversations with their loved ones is always hard. My comrade-in-arms Sergei’s relatives think he’s serving in a hospital in central Ukraine, but he’s been on the very edge of the front line for six months now.

Many of us, at times, are forced to deceive, to say we’re about to go on leave or rotation, or that the war will be over soon. And we hear each other say this, knowing that tomorrow we’ll once again be in action, and it feels like there’s no end in sight. Even if there is, not everyone will live to see it . . .

Much more at the link!

Boizhe Moi!

Good for Pink Floyd:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos posted, so here’s some adjacent material:

I’m pretty sure that cat does NOT need the camouflage sweater! To stay warm? Yes. To blend into the snow? Not so much.

Look! A kitten!

Awww!

Open thread!

 

Reader Interactions

86Comments

  1. 1.

    YY_Sima Qian

    The Russian RuAF do not have many A-50s. Of course, what they do have are obsolescent, but still represent a major force multiplier if used effectively.

  2. 2.

    Another Scott

    re Vuhledar: VOANews.com:

    An elite Russian infantry force has suffered significant losses in Ukraine, the British Defense Ministry said Sunday.

    The ministry said in an intelligence update that imagery from the Vuhledar section of Donetsk oblast shows “concentrated Russian vehicle losses,” with the vehicles probably from Russia’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade.

    The ministry said the Naval Infantry “has been tasked with some of the toughest tactical missions in the war and has suffered extremely high casualties.”

    The ministry update, posted on Twitter, said the capability of Naval Infantry brigades has “almost certainly been significantly degraded” because its units have been replenished with “inexperienced mobilized personnel.”

    The summary in Wikipedia makes it sound like the 155th has not been doing too well at all…

    In December, The New York Times reported on the deployment of the 155th Guards Naval Infantry to Pavlivka. Recruits “lacked sufficient food, maps, critical medical supplies, or walkie-talkies, and they were forced to use 1970s-era Kalashnikov rifles — with some members having to resort to using Wikipedia to locate instructions for using certain weapons”. There was also a shortage of ammunition. One soldier said, “This isn’t war. It’s the destruction of the Russian people by their own commanders.” Many used their Russian cellphones to call home, enabling Ukraine to track the unit and attack it. Many soldiers were volunteers but had “little experience” regarding the use of firearms.[28]

    In January 2023, the 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade attempted a breakthrough assault in Vuhledar against the Ukrainian 72nd Mechanized Brigade but failed. The unit saw initial success, however, but according to former FSB colonel Igor Strelkov, their assault stagnated following heavy losses to infantry and lack of ammunition for their organic fire support, despite using their T-80 tanks in an indirect fire role, and ”in general-poor technical support for the attacking units and their low staffing.”[29][30]

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Thanks Adam.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  3. 3.

    Alison Rose

    That was a good soundtrack application on the video of the russian tanks what got blowed up. You knew when the boom was coming and it was perfect.

    The diary from Firsov is heartbreaking. I’ve often wondered if it’s painful or helpful for them to see old photos and videos from before the full-scale invasion. Perhaps a little of both.

    This particular shot of the Eiffel Tower lit up in blue and yellow is really striking. I also saw a video of various landmarks and buildings around the world doing the same, and I hope that Ukrainians see that and feel heartened, and the orcs and their puppeteer see it and get all angerpants.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  8. 8.

    oldster

    The material from Tatarigami on the re-organization of the ruzzian army is interesting, but somehow I suspect that it means nothing at the ground level. It’s just more paperwork and PowerPoints to show the bosses in the Kremlin, including the big boss. But in the field, do they have that equipment? All those lovely graphics of vehicles and tanks and rockets? Do they have leaders who can organize these units? Do they have troops capable of executing the new maneuvers? I doubt it.

    The only part that seemed plausible to me was where they said that assault troops cannot evacuate the wounded. Given how we see the ruzzian troops treating each other in the drone videos, I’m pretty sure that they will not evacuate the wounded. Will the wounded be evacuated by “the evacuation team”? I doubt that part, too.

  9. 9.

    Anoniminous

    The new Russian Assault Detachments is a half-assed implementation of the Strosstruppen of World War 1. If I’m counting correctly each platoon has a maximum of 6 assault riflemen. Two get zapped and the platoon has taken 33% casualties and that amount of casualties by a unit is considered to make the unit combat incapable. That’s a rough rule of thumb. Naturally things in the Real World are more complicated, see: The Relationship of Battle Damage to Unit Combat Performance

    In any event, the Russians are recapitulating the basic mistake they made at the start of the war: not enough infantry in their line units.

  10. 10.

    Anonymous At Work

    @Anoniminous: I mean, Russia has the hardware to field like 3-4 of these tops<s>, seems like, and it’d take a year to get the paperwork together to move the troops around.  This is the “something different” when people back home wave their arms wildly and demand that RU generals “Do something different.”

  12. 12.

    Anonymous At Work

    Adam,

    Saw The Telegraph (I know, not the most reliable) calling for one of Putin’s inner circle to off the guy as the only way to end the war without the inner circle getting killed first.  I’ve been on that metaphorical train for a while myself.  How else does this end?  I can only see a combination of Putin declares “victory”, stops attacking but keeps every soldier in place, and NATO stops all arms shipments, especially HIMARS shells.

  13. 13.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Anoniminous: Yes, far too light on infantry, and does the Russian Army still have the cadre of effective junior officers to make this work (not that it did at the start)? You can’t plug mobik fodder into junior officer positions, especially not if they are expected to execute combined arms tactics. That is also a big missing pieces of the analysis when it comes to actually realizing Russia’s supposed numerical advantage.

  14. 14.

    Anoniminous

    @Another Scott:

    “T-80 tanks in an indirect fire role”

    This is really good.  Tank guns have a hundreds-of-rounds-fired life expectancy.  The Russians are pissing away their mobile strike and counter-strike ability doing the job of the artillery – badly.

  15. 15.

    Alison Rose

    @Anonymous At Work: I’m no expert in any sense of the word, but I don’t think putin dying would stop the war. Adam and others have noted that whoever would take over would be as bad or even worse in some ways than putin (which…I do not want to contemplate too deeply). Anyone who might be in line to take his shit throne supports the war and wouldn’t suddenly agree to yank the orcs back from every inch of Ukraine.

    My question is would this hypothetical successor have the same cult of (crappy) personality that putin has created for himself for so long? Probably not, but I don’t know how much that matters.

  16. 16.

    dmsilev

    @Anoniminous: What’s striking about that is the Russian army, going back to the Soviet era, has always been heavily into real artillery. For them to be running out, or at least running low, on purpose built howitzers and so forth is really quite something.

  17. 17.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Gin & Tonic: You are right of course, or the RuAF wouldn’t have struggled to gain air superiority from the start, & the UAF wouldn’t still be flying ground attack missions.

  18. 18.

    dmsilev

    @Alison Rose: One question, which I don’t think anyone knows the answer to, is just how messy the ‘find a replacement for Putin’ process would end up being. It’s not going to be like a normal Presidential handover here. It’s not even going to be ‘a day of rioting, and then mostly normal’ like it was two years ago. Do the various mercenary outfits end up fighting each other in support of their patrons, for instance? If it gets messy enough, it could seriously distract the Russian forces even if all of the contenders want to continue the war.

  19. 19.

    Anonymous At Work

    @Alison Rose: This only ends when whomever is in charge needs to bring home the troops to “win” an election they rigged, but the world might ignore, just to end the war.  That won’t and can’t be Putin.  We’ll call him Putin+X, where X is the number of leaders taking power only to die in their sleep or from a fall from a window.

    If there’s another way, I’d be happy to consider it and debate how to get there.

  21. 21.

    Jay

    @Anoniminous:

    gotten to talk to Slava a couple of times this week. He’s in Germany, training on Leopards, and his commander, (Brigaide) gave him and his crew one of the Canadian ones. There were a small ton of cards and candies, (Wurthers) from the Kids at CFB Gagetown, stashed inside. Full tool kits, (not just maintenece but service, full service records, all new grease, and the top secret screwdriver lever).*

    on the T-72’s, T-80’s and even the captured T-90’s, they would stop, then fire, because on the move, you couldn’t hit anything accurately, beyond 500 meters.

    with the Leopards, they are hitting accurately at 2,000 metres, on the move, on moving targets.

    So yeah, under those field conditions, you would set you tanks up mostly for indirect fire, due to the the presence of ATGM’s and the inability to charge and shoot accurately.

  24. 24.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    one assumes that the T-50’s were used according to doctrine.

    as we have learned, Soviet/Russian “doctrine” of combat is not adhered to.

    Eg, ECM crews shutting down the electromagnetic spectrum in an entire area, because “orderz”, despite a RU assault going in, now robbed of GLONASS, drones, comms, etc.

  25. 25.

    Anoniminous

    @Anonymous At Work:

    The Russians are experts at pretending to do stuff.  They’ve got hundreds of years of experience.

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    As far as I know the Russians have never had “effective junior officers.”  In the last two years of World War Two the Russians were pulling administrative officers, assigning them an infantry unit, and then ordered into the attack. A big reason the Red Army suffered more casualties in 1943 – 1944, when they were “winning”  then they did in 1941 -1942 when they were “losing.”  We know the Russians pulled their officer cadets out of military school and sent them to combat units in October.  How many are left?  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯  Even so, I think it is safe to say not enough for this Table of Organization and Equipment.

    And using a 120mm mortar with a minimum range of 480 meters for close support of Assault detachments is just plain assed stupid, it’s the wrong weapon for the job.  You need something like the M224 60mm mortar with a minimum range of 70 meters or the 252 81mm mortar with a minimum range of 91 meters so the assault commander can immediately direct fire where it needs to be. The Russian 2B14 82mm would do the job IF they have enough — and they probably don’t.

  26. 26.

    Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony

    @Alison Rose: I’m not sure I believe that if Putin was shivved by a Russian version of Brutus that the alternative would be worse. I think it would tear the country apart. Putin has his true believers. It would be hugely deflating if he died, just like it was when Bin Laden died. Plus, you end up with a big internal power struggle that will get very ugly. It makes sense that wouldn’t end the war immediately. However, I don’t see how you maintain the momentum to take Ukraine when things are falling apart at home. Morale can always get worse.

  27. 27.

    Anoniminous

    @Jay: ​ So because they are 1950s era weapon systems the Russians are using their tanks as third rate, obsolete, limited life Self-Propelled Artillery.O………….kay.​​

    And even the T-90s don’t have gun stabilization??? WTever-lovin’F?

  28. 28.

    Another Scott

    @Alison Rose: My recollection is that Kamil Galeev on twitter made the case that:

    Nobody in russia respects the military.
    VVP has kept most power for himself and divided the remainder so that there aren’t any outfits able to challenge his power; and besides, nobody can get close to him.
    If anyone is going to get rid of VVP, it’s probably going to be the police.

    This is the thread I am thinking of.

    Is he right?  No idea.  But he makes a decent case that one defeats the existing elites with a counter-elite and that seems to be the police (and mid-ranked and regional elites).

    FWIW.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  29. 29.

    Anoniminous

    The US Defense establishment needs to find every analyst who said the Russian military was the meanest Big Bad Boogerman on the Planet and fire their asses for gross incompetence.

  30. 30.

    Kent

    Here is an interesting new development.  It appears that Ukraine is conducting  a pincer move in Bakhmut with some success.  Click through to see the map.  It appears the let the Russians over-extend their lines and are snapping shut the trap.

    BAKHMUT /FLASH TRAFFIC/ On 26 FEB, UKR forces launched a combined arms counter-attack SE along the M-03 HWY axis. Timely reporting by Jarosław Wolski @wolski_jaros indicates that RU forces have been flanked and driven SE down the M-03 HWY toward Berkhivka. pic.twitter.com/qZwyPtvnvR— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) February 27, 2023

  31. 31.

    Jay

    @Anoniminous:

    the Ukrainians are too. It’s not that they arn’t effective, as tanks, it’s that they arn’t as effective and infantry ATGM’s have made a “charging” role, much more dangerous.

    Sitting in deflade, and firing on fixed coordinates, on the say so of infantry or drones, is more effective. They arn’t being used as artillary, in that sense

    They do have gun stabilization, it’s the combo of targetting systems, crew training, and less effective stabilization systems, that limit the ability to “run and gun”.

  33. 33.

    kalakal

    @Kent: I’ve been wondering when/if something like this was going to happen.

    If successful this is going to drive what’s left of Russian morale into the abyss

  36. 36.

    Anonymous At Work

    @Kent: Interesting but the RU lines are far too stacked to collapse far enough.  UA is making RU bleed hard for it but that can only do so much; it’s like killing a hippo with an exact-o knife.

  37. 37.

    brendancalling

    Sorry not sorry, but I want almost every single Russian dead. I’ve been listening to podcasts about Russian history, and (riffing on Norm MacDonald’s “Germany” routine) I don’t think they should get to be a country anymore.

    Let’s not forget that the Russians who fled did so out of concern for their own lives. Maybe I’ve missed something, but I don’t think I’ve seen Russian expats holding demonstrations against the war. They are selfish people who care about their own skin, not anyone else’s. They left because THEY didn’t want to die (or, for that matter, give up the western amenities they’ve come to enjoy).

    Happy to be proved wrong.

  38. 38.

    Torrey

    In connection with the anniversary of the invasion, I’ve run across a couple of news reports about Russians supporting Ukrainians and thought I’d post them here, as the subject has come up from time to time.

    The first is from the Washington Post. I don’t think it’s behind the paywall, but in case it is, you may be able to access it via Google. The title is “Discreetly, and at peril, Russian volunteers help Ukrainian refugees.”

    The second is a news report about a Ukrainian rally in Denver. The Russian speaker begins at 1:21.

  39. 39.

    Dan B

    I read that the AWACS planes are about half a billion dollars each.  Would need to check. And Russia had only 9 of them

    Wikipedia has them at 1/4 billion but new ones are now 1/2 billion.

  40. 40.

    Ruckus

    @Alison Rose:

    This. It seems to me that communications in Russia go one way only.  Top to bottom. I’d bet there is zero feedback allowed. The US military depends on every level of personal to run the one below it. Sure, there is a top boss but each level has actual responsibility. And recourse. The concept is that you actually think. Sure you have to obey but there is a level of 2 way respect. That depends on the actual person but the concept is there. In the Russian military? In Russia? My impression is there is zero respect, in the entire country. Because if there was some they wouldn’t have to arrest citizens and beat, jail or kill them for what amounts to the concept of respect goes both ways, and millions wouldn’t be running for their lives. Because it does not go both ways, only up, NEVER down.

  41. 41.

    Anoniminous

    @Jay: ​
     
    Heinz Guderian – a dude generally conceded to have some knowledge about tank warfare – wrote in Achtung Panzer a tank needed to be able to withstand hits of medium sized anti-tank rounds at 400 meters. Today a tank is killable at 5 kilometers. A tank is only One More weapon system in the Combined Arms Team, something the Germans knew and practiced in 1937. What a tank can do, once the artillery and infantry have punched a hole and cleared the way, is move the FEBA tens or a hundred kilometers in a day, run amok in the enemies rear area, and force the enemy to react to your offensive. Only a tank unit and it’s attached infantry, combat engineers, SPA, recon, & etc. can fulfill that mission because an armor division is, of itself, a Combined Arms Team.

    Blowing out the main gun precludes any chance of breaking out of attrition into mobile warfare,

  42. 42.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Anonymous At Work: It ends when Ukraine reduces Russia’s combat capability and retakes its currently occupied territories. That happens provided we are able to meet Ukraine’s logistical needs. Anyone who replaces Putin is not going to be any better than him. As a result, even if he were to be eliminated by someone among the Siloviki, whomever succeeds him, and Patrushev is still the most likely in my estimation, isn’t just going to return the parts of Ukraine Russia is occupying. Those areas are going to have to be liberated the hard way.

  48. 48.

    Alison Rose

    @Ruckus: I kind of want to take all our putin-loving GOPers and ship them off to their pretend fatherland, let them spend a few months living like average citizens there and see how they enjoy it.

  50. 50.

    Ruckus

    @dmsilev:

    It’s very, very seldom a clean easy takeover of a government unless it’s built in, and even then it can be very messy, as we’ve seen recently in this ours. That is why the concept of respect is so very important. In Russia, respect is something you have to show, not something you have to believe or have. Never has been. Which is why there is a heavily armed group that protects the leader and arrests/eliminates any dissent. Build respect? Why bother, the dissenters can piss off, they get nothing, for the leader is supreme. You may vote, but your vote counts for squat. On paper Russia elects it’s leader, but the leader owns the paper, the pencils, the people who count and the system that picks and announces the winner. It’s a dictatorship and the leader gets replaced when he dies or is killed. And he’s got people watching the people that watch for trouble and they have people watching and so on. It seems to me that it’s complicated being the head dick of a country. Seems less desirable than many imagine it to be.

  51. 51.

    Jay

    @Anoniminous:

    Gudarian, screwed up lots and lots. Post war, as only a minor and not major Nazi, and an rabid anti-communist, he got rehabilitated and wrote a bunch of books, some of which were just a collection of utter BS. Like Otto he not only had a major post war impact on NATO doctrine, but did a wonderful job of mainstreaming Nazi doctrine into NATO.

    if you have sufficient arty, using tank guns as indirect fire is a waste, but neither Ukraine or Russia has that luxury. There is also the psych effect of having crews sit back and do nothing.

    While Turkey has lost a tiny number of “export” Leopards, to Koronet missile in Syria, most analysis blames the crews. Other than that, for modern Western MBT’s, the #1 killer has been Blue on Blue.

  52. 52.

    ian

    @brendancalling:

    This

    but I want almost every single Russian dead.

    is advocacy for genocide.  It is wrong when anyone does it.  It is wrong that Putin and his propagandists do it to Ukrainians.  Doing it back to them does not make the world a better place, but instead sinks us down to their level.

  53. 53.

    NutmegAgain

    @Jay: What!? no black salty licorice? /jk.  That stuff is vile, but after a decade in Germany, my kid eats it like a champ.

  54. 54.

    FastEdD

    It doesn’t matter in the big scheme of things, but that is the version of Pink Floyd with David Gilmour. Roger Waters is the songwriter of most of their old stuff, and he’s a tankie. Even gave a speech to the UN a couple weeks ago about how he feels solidarity with the oppressed, which is all good, but he thinks that Russia was provoked into attacking Ukraine. Fuck him. Good on ya Gilmour.

  55. 55.

    brendancalling

    @Another Scott: Interesting. Still, fuck ‘em. Murderous, self-entitled, cowardly orcs. My ex’s elderly parents are living in Poland now after evacuating their home in Kyiv, and her cousin is fighting in Bakhmut. I have no sympathy.

    my great-uncle Willy left Germany right as WW2 broke out, managed to get into the US, joined the Army, and went right back to Europe to fight Nazis. He was wounded twice by shrapnel. That’s a mensch.

    you know who I WILL have sympathy for? Any Russian POW who got caught in Ukraine and volunteered to fight the Russians. Anyone who does that is also a mensch in my book. These Russians running away to save themselves and not speaking out? I don’t have much to say other than what I already said. They are fine with the war, and fine with exterminating Ukrainians, just so long as they don’t have to put themselves at risk.

    sorry not sorry, that’s how I feel. And sometimes I’m not very charitable.

  56. 56.

    brendancalling

    @ian: ok, you said a thing. You get to feel that way you feel and that’s fine for you. As I said to Another Scott, I know people directly affected who have lost their homes and their friends. So I feel differently.

    It’s a free country, unlike Russia. You get to feel how you like. Spare me the lecture.

  58. 58.

    Anoniminous

    @Jay: ​
     
    I agree and would go farther and say he and his ego could barely fit in the city, his post-war book “Panzer Leader” is elastic with the truth, his place as The Founding Genius of the panzerwerfer is over-rated, and please god spare the “blitzkrieg” BS.

    but

    His command of the XIX Panzer Corps at the Battle of Sedan was a thing of beauty. He had the grasp of the situation to leave the 10th Panzer to protect his rear until the infantry came up and swing the 1st and 2nd Panzer divisions behind Corap’s 9th Army and ultimately a major cause of the trapping of the BEF and French forces in Belgium.

  59. 59.

    Jay

    @NutmegAgain:

    Slava is Canadian, for 15 years now.  Loved that the Gagetown crews and their kids put more than a little chunk of Canada in the tanks for whom ever got them.

    the joke here, for the past 20 so years, is gramma reaches into her pocket and gives you a Werthers, in the past it would have been a Scotch Mint.

  60. 60.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay:

    on the T-72’s, T-80’s and even the captured T-90’s, they would stop, then fire, because on the move, you couldn’t hit anything accurately, beyond 500 meters.

    The modernized T-72s, T-80s, & all versions of T-90s, are supposed to have dual-axis stabilized guns. They must not work so well…

    In hindsight, we could see signs of inadequacy of Russian Army kit even from the performative military games that Russias has held over the years. The “Tank Biathlon” used to have elements that required firing on the move, allowing a warm up shot to warm the bore, firing co-axial machine guns, & firing the top mounted heavy machine guns by remote control. After the 1st time the PLA joined the games, it quickly became clear that the Chinese ZTZ-96B main battle tanks had better fire controls & stabilization than the Russian (& other countries’) T-72B3/B3Ms, so much so that the more accurate shooting dominated the results & more than compensated for the latter’s slightly faster speed.

    For subsequent games the Russians canceled shooting while on the move & the co-axial machine gun elements, required all shots to be cold bore, & changed the heavy machine element to manual control only, all to negate the Chinese kits’ advantages in fire control. Even then, the Russian organizers had to resort to shenanigans such as not recording hits from the Chinese teams, or giving Chinese teams unfounded penalties, all to ensure that a Russian team came in 1st.

    During the 120 mm mortar competition, the Russians were pitting the 2S12 Sani against the PLA’s PLL-05 self-propelled gun mortar. The latter has full auto-loading & automated fire controls, while the Russian mortar teams had to wheel the mortar off the truck, & set up manually. Needless to say, the Russian teams were lapped by the Chinese teams again & again, where no Russian shenanigans w/ rules & judging could compensate. The irony is that the Chinese system is built off licensed Russian technology for the 2S9 NONA self-propelled gun mortar, but the latter is never really deployed in numbers (despite the qty. in service claimed by Wikipedia).

    The same thing happened in the amphibious vehicles competition, pitting the Russian Naval Infantry’s BTR-82As (10 km / hr swimming speed) against the PLA Marines’ ZBD-05s (~ 30 km / hr swimming speed). They were lapped again.

    The Russian response? To ban the PLA from using the PLL-05s & the ZBD-05s in subsequent games, & forced them to use Russian kit.

    Even then, signs of the decay of the Russian military were there, but few people anywhere paid much attention to such details from these games, because of the games’ silly nature. Everyone just assumed that the Russia military is still a formidable opponent to the NATO based on reputation & numbers on paper. They could wreak a lot of destruction, as they have been doing in Ukraine, but they were not a threat to steam roll to the Rhine.

  61. 61.

    Another Scott

    @brendancalling: My grad school adviser was Ukrainian, born in Germany just after the war, grew up in Australia, came to the US to be a professor.  Brilliant guy.  Spoke Ukrainian at home.

    I understand what VVP and russia are doing and have done in Ukraine and to Ukrainians.

    The job at hand is to get VVP’s forces out of Ukraine, and then create conditions so that it doesn’t happen again.  Advocating genocide is not helping the cause.

    Eyes on the prizes.

    Hang in there.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  62. 62.

    kalakal

    @Anoniminous: A lot of old Hasty Heinz’s post war blatherings were written with an eye to telling the Western Allies want they wanted to hear. He was espescially clever in his flattery of Liddell-Hart and his pre war witterings.

    His record as a military commander was, as you say, quite a different thing

  63. 63.

    Torrey

    @Adam L Silverman: ​
     
    Thank you. My apologies for the duplication. I usually read your updates. However, last night was the end of a long day, and I missed it. On the other hand, while my post wasn’t a reply to brendancalling’s, it went up after theirs, so perhaps reposting of that particular article was not too far out of order? I will now go back to yesterday’s recap and see what comments it generated.

  66. 66.

    brendancalling

    @Torrey: i saw that article, and those Russians I have a lot of respect for. Just to be clear. Anyone who is helping—especially at great personal risk—is a blessing. So when I say angry shit, it’s because I’m angry.

    but I DO notice when people do good things. And that is one of them. God bless and keep them for doing their part, and I mean that sincerely.

  68. 68.

    Gvg

    @Another Scott: there is also learned helplessness. Families of alcoholics learn that nothing can be done so don’t even try but it is the alcoholic teaching them that. Then there are the stories about how cynical the Russians are about their own country, government and everyone around them. I am still not sure I believe that, but I am readying that they assume we are lying because everyone does…Conditions are brutal and they survive by learned indifference to everything around them supposedly. It sounds like it should be a surprise that the original Russian revolution actually happened.

    I am not for genocide ever and I don’t think it helps to talk like that. Mostly we can’t conquer and be anything other than a new tyrant. But I think we can refrain from putting them back together into one country too quickly if they fall apart which they seem possibly they might. Let some new patterns have a chance to form. Maybe even a different capital. Let them be several smaller states for awhile. And try to put them into situations where they find out most other countries aren’t lying. Take advantage of opportunities if they happen. Hold onto alliances if they don’t.

  73. 73.

    eddie blake

    @Jay: well, that’ll do it

    eta- that seems like a terrible way to use a highly maneuverable MBT. how is it there was no drone cover watching the heights? i hope someone in the turkish army got sacked.

  74. 74.

    glc

    @NutmegAgain: Licorice is mildly poisonous. I like it quite a bit myself but  the expression “eats it like a champ” is perhaps concerning.

    The NHS is very polite about it but does give a warning directed mainly at the elderly. Rather more explicit information at Wikipedia.

  75. 75.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Adam Tooze has a sobering OpEd in his Chartbook, looking at the inadequacies to aid to Ukraine to date, looking at it from a holistic & philosophical perspective (lots of useful charts in the link):

    Chartbook #197: The Ukraine-Aid Reality Gap
    There is a chronic and yawning gap between our collective awareness of major social, environmental, political and economic problems, the capacious way in which we address those problems in policy discourse and the resources that are actually mobilized to meet the challenges we can clearly see ahead of us.

    …

    My hunch, in short, is that we have not only a cynicism problem (bad faith) and a problem of means and ends (a policy problem), but something deeper: A reality problem. Another way of putting this point is that actually situating ourselves in medias res is harder than it might seem. We inhabit historical reality in a weird way. We are, willy-nilly present in the world, we are thrown into it, but we flee cognitively and politically from the stark reality surrounding us.

    …

    The mood at the Munich Security Conference on the topic of aid for Ukraine was, by all accounts, self-congratulatory. And yet Ukraine is at risk of running out of ammunition and its economy teeters on the brink of economic disaster. As the FT piece spells out, this discrepancy is likely explained by all three problems – hypocrisy, policy problems and a problem of perception, a “reality gap”.

    …

    If you allow for the costs of supporting refugees, as well as military and other bilateral aid, Germany and the United States at 0.375 percent are both contributing similar shares of GDP. The leader, by far, is Poland, which at 2.1 percent of GDP is spending more than 5 times as much in proportional terms as either the US or Germany.

    Of course, both the United States and Germany have many calls on their resources. So, the best way to gauge the priority being accorded to Ukraine, is by comparison with other emergencies.

    For all the talk from administration officials of America being on a “war-footing”, spending on Ukraine, in fact, falls well short of all America’s military commitments since 1945.

    Likewise, Germany contributed far more to the liberation of Kuwait’s oil wells from Saddam Hussein’s in 1991 than it is contributing to Ukraine’s defense against Putin’s aggression.

    The comparison with civilian emergencies is even more stark. In 2022 all the countries of Europe, at least in Western Europe, committed vastly greater sums to cushioning their population against the energy shock unleashed by Putin’s war, than they did to supporting Ukraine in defeating the aggressor.

    With regard to military spending it is not easy to set an upper limit to what is needed on the battlefield. Ukraine’s economic situation is desperate too. But it is somewhat easier to assess in quantitative terms. The figure proposed by Kyiv for its financial needs is in the order of $3.5 billion per month. The United States and Europe have committed to providing enough to cover that. But as the monthly data show, those payments do not arrive in a steady or reliable fashion.

    ***

    The point of my op-ed is not that Europe and the United States should deliver vastly greater aid to Ukraine. One may want to make the case for that, but that is a separate issue. The point of my op-ed is that the Kiel data reveal a vast gap between the declared intentions of the United States and Europe in backing Ukraine and what they are actually delivering.

    So what explains this shortfall? This raises the questions with which we began this newsletter. Are the Western powers cynical in promising to stand by Ukraine? Are they implicitly steering towards a stalemate? Do they actually favor a Ukrainian victory, but incompetence and “friction” causes them to fall short in matching the necessary means to the desired ends? Or are they struggling with a “reality gap” – failing to grasp the scale of what might be needed and what on other occasions and for other purposes they have been able to deliver? Personally, I think it is a mixture of all three.

    One thing is for certain: The modesty of the support provided by its Western allies, leaves Ukraine’s war effort precariously balanced and the course of the war in 2023 highly uncertain. Ukraine may pull through. Its military are fighting remarkably well. Perhaps Russia will crumble. But if it does not, we should likely expect the “reality gap” to close in the direction of greater financial and military aid. There is evidence for this in the Kiel data.

    December 2022 – the 11th month of the war – saw the largest commitments of military aid to date. As Ukraine’s own reserves are progressively worn down, we should surely expect that trend to continue.

    Of course, there are also risks to escalating support for Ukraine. Most notably the West still needs to be concerned about the Russian reaction. Managing the crisis requires balancing. What is striking about the current moment is how opaque the terms are under which that balancing is being performed. It leaves the impression of decision-making stumbling from one crisis and one problem to the next. It is certainly a pattern that we should fear to see generalized: The reality gap closing under the pressure of crisis, rather than as a result of strategic foresight and leadership.

  76. 76.

    Jay

    @eddie blake:

    the Turkish forces were supposed to take up “Peacekeeper” positions, supported by their Syrian proxies,

    they were not “supposed” to see combat. That quickly changed.

  77. 77.

    Odie Hugh Manatee

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    Yup, we need to kick it up a few notches and let Ukraine have what they need to get this done and over with. If Russia wants to go nuke over this stupid war they started then that’s on them and they know that there will be a response if they do so.  Russia has proven that the only thing to fear from their military is that they will rape and kill civilians, they have no other real capabilities other than overwhelming an enemy and rape/murder.

    Thanks for everything you put together, Adam. It really helps to have an overview of the daily changes in operations and tactics.

  79. 79.

    Odie Hugh Manatee

    @glc:

    Yup, I love real black licorice and I can’t eat it any more because of my medications. I used to eat what I now know were probably unhealthy amounts of it in one sitting but damn that stuff is good!

    I have found that if something tastes good that it’s probably bad for you or even killing you, and if it tastes like shit it’ll keep you alive to over 100.

  81. 81.

    West of the Rockies

    Remember when for a bit there were multiple stories about Putin’s supposed ill health? So much BS it seems.

  82. 82.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Another Scott: Masha Gessen’s PBS Frontline interview touched on these subjects, too.  Or, erm, maybe more like … “dwelled on them at length”.  I think it’s fair to say that Gessen believes that Putin’s …. antipathy towards “people protesting in the streets’ is a thru-line to his personal story, going all the way back to when he was a piss-ant KGB man in Dresden.  He’s always reacted very, very, very badly to people in the streets protesting.

  84. 84.

    Jinchi

    @brendancalling: ​
     Let’s not forget that the Russians who fled did so out of concern for their own lives.

    Putting aside the over-simplification, (concern for their lives is the reason most refugees flee during a time of crisis), I’ll never understand why anyone attacks those who flee Russia to avoid getting press ganged into Putin’s war.

    We don’t want those men at the front, and I don’t care if they fled because they fear for their lives or because they hate Putin’s war or, most likely, both. You’re implicitly arguing that those who didn’t flee, and are now at the front pointing guns at Ukrainians, are somehow braver, nobler, better men than those who left.

  86. 86.

    NutmegAgain

    @Jay: My Canadian* grandmother went for horehound hard candies. Another selection in the list of international vile candies! Flavor is a combination of licorice and mint–happiness all around. * she was from the Maritimes–right near Gagetown in fact; maybe it’s a sailing thing?

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