(Image by NEIVANMADE)
About an hour after I posted last night’s update, this came in:
BAKHMUT /FLASH TRAFFIC/ On 26 FEB, UKR forces launched a combined arms counter-attack SE along the M-03 HWY axis. Timely reporting by Jarosław Wolski @wolski_jaros indicates that RU forces have been flanked and driven SE down the M-03 HWY toward Berkhivka. pic.twitter.com/qZwyPtvnvR
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) February 27, 2023
I’d been waiting and wondering when the Ukrainians were going to get to the Russian salient in Bakhmut and, apparently, it was early this morning! We’ll have more on that after the jump.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
We need modern combat aircraft to protect the entire territory of Ukraine from Russian terror – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
27 February 2023 – 22:07
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
A brief report on this day.
The day began with an attack by Iranian drones. Most of them were shot down. Eleven out of fourteen.
Unfortunately, there were also hits. Three employees of the State Emergency Service in Khmelnytskyi were wounded, two were killed. My condolences to the families. The second drone hit just as the fire was being extinguished after the first hit.
In fact, that is why we need the aviation component of air defense – modern combat aircraft – to protect the entire territory of our country from Russian terror. Air defense is complete only when it is backed by aviation. Modern aviation.
Our pilots, together with our anti-aircraft gunners, together with all the warriors and specialists of our Air Forces, are already doing a great job. But we will be able to fully protect the sky when the aviation taboo in relations with our partners is lifted.
The elimination of consequences of the power grid accident in Odesa and the Odesa region lasted all day. There was a large-scale power outage, but the power supply was restored within a day.
As of this evening, all critical infrastructure and the vast majority of consumers have electricity. I am grateful to all power engineers and repair crews who ensured a quick result.
Ukraine demonstrated and will continue to demonstrate that our resilience is higher than anyone’s expectations.
Today, I held several meetings with representatives of the government and security agencies. In particular, a meeting with Head of the Security Service of Ukraine Vasyl Malyuk. We discussed current issues and our steps to protect the state in the near future.
We will not leave any chance to any internal threats, just as we don’t leave it to external ones.
Of course, I am constantly in touch with our commanders. Special attention to the situation in the east, of course, in the Donetsk region.
Bakhmut direction – the situation is getting more and more difficult. The enemy is constantly destroying everything that can be used to protect our positions, to gain a foothold and ensure defense.
Our warriors defending the Bakhmut sector are real heroes.
I am grateful to each and every person who is heroically holding this direction and other directions in Donbas. I thank each and every one who helps our warriors and does everything to ensure that our defenders have as many weapons, long-range weapons, powerful weapons as possible.
Today, the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury paid a visit to Kyiv.
I thanked her for the vital financial support for our country. We discussed our current cooperation both at the level between Ukraine and the United States and at the level of global financial institutions, including the IMF. We discussed the needs for reconstruction in Ukraine and the restoration of justice for our people and the entire free world, which means launching a real mechanism of compensation for the damage caused by this war… compensation at the cost of Russian assets.
This is not an easy task. But fulfilling it and directing Russian assets to compensate for the war damage will be one of the most powerful hits of the free world against this aggressor and against any aggression in general.
I think a format for compensation will be found and Russia will pay for its war. In every sense.
Glory to each and every one who is now fighting for Ukraine! Thank you to everyone who helps!
May the memory of all those whose lives were taken by Russian terror be eternal!
Glory to Ukraine!
The Russians did the strike, wait for the first responders, then strike again tactic:
Two firefighters died while working at the scene of Russian drone attack at night in Khmelnytskyi. Three more are wounded. Another deliberate double tap attack on unarmed rescuers. pic.twitter.com/EbnjoUcgSF
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) February 27, 2023
I just want to take a quick moment and post this tweet reply regarding what American Air Power has meant to people in dire straits:
As an Albanian from Kosovo no one will know what F-15 are to us….we call them the angels on the sky! When there was no hope at all when it looked like the world and god forgot about us the angels of the sky appeared from 🇺🇸 and justice was done!
— Shkelqim Hadri 🇺🇸 🇦🇱 🇽🇰 🇺🇦 (@ShkelqimHadri) February 27, 2023
As I wrote here a long time ago regarding immigration, despite all our flaws and faults – and we definitely have them – and the often inability to live up to our national ideals, for people in desperate situations everywhere the American flag means hope and safety. Getting Ukraine advanced air platforms and the Ukrainian pilots trained on them, even though they’ll be wearing Ukrainian livery and heraldry, should be a priority.
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situations in Vuhledar, Kreminna, and Bakhmut:
VUHLEDAR /1545 UTC 27 FEB/ Following their defeat on 10 FEB, elements of the Russian 155th Brigade of Naval Infantry have continued platoon-sized assaults on Vuhledar. Intel sources indicate that RU has deployed reinforcements from the occupation garrison at Melitopol. pic.twitter.com/SqG7l38fzE
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) February 27, 2023
KREMINNA AXIS /2250 UTC 27 FEB/ RU assaults on Ploschanka Novoliubivka & Dibrova were repelled. South of Kreminna, RU attacks on Serebryansk Forestry & Bilohorvika also failed. UKR forces are reported to be in contact within the Kreminna urban area south of the C-130514 road. pic.twitter.com/o8nrftqWIj
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) February 27, 2023
BAKHMUT /1210 UTC 27 FEB/ 0600 brief of the UKR Gen’l Staff did not clarify initial reports of UKR offensive progress N of Bakhmut. UKR forces were confirmed to have broken up RU attacks in the vicinity of Dubovo-Vasylivka and Yahidne, as well as enemy attacks on the urban area. pic.twitter.com/7npQCJCSN1
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) February 27, 2023
Bakhmut:
Update from Bakhmut, 27 February – Kiyanyn. pic.twitter.com/eTCCagCraf
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) February 27, 2023
more from Bakhmut by @MaryanKushnir (with some amusing soldier theatrics at the beginning). In Ukrainian. pic.twitter.com/4XpfXYCOlr
— Mike Eckel (@Mike_Eckel) February 27, 2023
Another video of Bakhmut. This is the east side of the city, across the Bakhmutka river where the Russians have been based. It was a quiet district. There were several churches and the sparkling wine factory. Russia has reduced it to ruins. pic.twitter.com/FimkehYLtk
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 27, 2023
We love #Khinkali, they have meat inside pic.twitter.com/gWxUkwaZix
— Georgian Legion (@georgian_legion) February 27, 2023
That funny looking white line under the khinkali that has been superimposed on the map is the Russian salient in Bakhmut. More specifically it is the Wagner salient. The lines actually look like this (and I don’t remember where I snagged the map this AM):
There’s two ways to look at this. One is that Wagner has almost completely encircled Bakhmut, meaning they’ve almost taken it. The others are that Wagner is now stuck in that pocket and exposed on multiple sides. It is this latter view that the Ukrainians are trying to act on and exploit.
Marinka:
This is #Mariinka in Donetsk oblast after Russian world has come here…
🎥AP pic.twitter.com/YkenvWARCr
— UkraineWorld (@ukraine_world) February 27, 2023
Send!
Improvised 🇺🇦 MLRS based on pickup trucks firing at Russian positionshttps://t.co/ATSE21e6hr pic.twitter.com/QWw1I7OsYN
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 27, 2023
Some things never change:
Biden’s at the 1997 Atlantic Council:
“And the russians tell me: “If you expand NATO, we will make friends with China.” I could hardly contain my emotions and replied: good luck to you guys. If it doesn’t work out with China, try Iran.”
Well…not much really changed since then pic.twitter.com/gtd1meUWk9
— Maria Drutska 🇺🇦 (@maria_drutska) February 27, 2023
I think that’s enough for a Monday night.
Your daily Patron!
Here’s a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Ні на мить не сумніваюсь❤️ #славаукраїні
The caption machine translates as:
I have no doubt in my mind ❤️ #славаукраїні
Open thread!
Alison Rose
God, I hope they do it. I so badly want to see a Ukrainian victory in Bakhmut, and to see wagner and his band of brain-damaged choads suffer another humiliating defeat.
The tweet from the Albanian…I want to print it on a billboard and drive it around outside the White House and Congress.
Thank you as always, Adam.
[P.S. Question for G&T or others who would know: I apologize if I’ve asked about this before, but if so I’ve forgotten (big shock) and every time I see it, it bugs me anew. Is the way Reuters spells his name — Zelenskiy — just another Ukrainian version (à la the one-y or two-y spellings) or is it a russian twist on it?]
zhena gogolia
@Alison Rose: I think it’s another version of Ukrainian transliteration. It’s not the way Russian would be transliterated in any system I know. That would be -skii or -skij or -sky.
zhena gogolia
Just putting this here since there have been questions about it. Not a gift link, New York Times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/26/world/europe/russia-diaspora-protests.html
Alison Rose
@zhena gogolia: Ah okay. Good to know. I don’t know why they go with that one when he spells it either sky or skyy everywhere, but oh well.
Jay
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-intercepts-2b14732d88b3f58d4a9d0b2b562bdb28
Gin & Tonic
@Alison Rose: I agree with professor z_g. Nothing to get worked up about.
Torrey
For once I’m in early enough to be able to thank Adam for all the work it takes to present these nightly reports. I can only imagine the extra stress, and I’m extremely grateful for it.
On the issue of maintaining (and increasing) support for Ukraine, I’d like to see the people on our side start lobbing overt and direct Chamberlain bombs (Neville, not Joshua Lawrence) at the reluctant, or those suggesting limits. Along the lines of “Sorry, Kevin, but this appeasement idea you’re talking about, we all already saw this movie in 1939, and that’ll be a hard no.”
Jay
Gin & Tonic
Friend of mine is in the national guard, now stationed in Khmelnytsky, a town I had thought of as relatively safe.
kalakal
@Jay: If Putin is hoping to make up manpower losses by getting the Steven Seagal fanclub to enlist he’s in for a severe disappointment. It would only need a single taxi to carry them all.
LivinginExile ?
@kalakal: It would take two taxis just to carry Seagal.
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: BUT I’M SO GOOD AT GETTING WORKED UP OVER SMALL THINGS.
japa21
This is probably just wishful thinking on my part, but
Are we sure this isn’t already being done? It is hardly something that we would broadcast around the world.
JR
@Jay: I’m going to take you to the bank, Senator Trent.
The blood bank.
YY_Sima Qian
Khmelnytskyi is classic terrorist tactic.
trollhattan
@japa21: Seems feasible, even at the opportunity cost of taking Ukrainian pilots out of combat for a VERY lengthy training round, in new planes and systems.
I assume this was linked to earlier this month but I thought it very informative on how difficult it is to convert a nation to a completely new plane such as the F-16, so repost here.
Bet India is having second, third and fourth thoughts about picking Soviet-Russian plans for their Air Force.
ETA we’re sending JDAMS, which are going to cause all kinds of fresh havoc.
Anonymous At Work
Someone explain the continued attacks on Vuldehar to me? Especially since this is being telegraphed as the probable direction of Ukraine’s next offensive, and especially since taking garrisoned troops out of Melitopol is begging for more of an uprising there?
Or am I again asking reason of the irrational, like thinking Putin in his palace is different from Hitler in the bunker?
Geminid
Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu announced today that talks concerning Turkish endorsement of Sweden and Finlands bids for NATO membership will resume on March 9, in Brussels. From the Middle East Monitor.
Turkiye is also involved in another important diplomatic matter: the renewal of the Black Sea Graine Initiative, set to expire March 18. Ukraine is calling for the initiative to be expanded to include the Port of Mykolaiv, which formerly accounted for 35% of the country’s grain exports. The Ukrainians also want more inspection teams, and say that that a backlog of grain ships trying to clear Istanbul is due to the Russians slow-walking inspections.
The Black Sea grain deal is actually two parallel agreements, one between The UN, Turkiye and Ukraine and one between the UN, Turkiye and Russia. Russia would rather not allow any grain to be shipped from Ukraine, but Turkiye seems insistent that the shipments go through. So Russia is seeking its own concession in the form of a public affirmation by the US that shippers and insurers of Russian grain and fertilizer will not run afoul of sanctions.
According to World-Grain.com., Ukraine’s grain production fell from 86 million tons in 2021 to 54 million tons last year. Exports are expected to decline 28% in the 2022-23 marketing year, to 30.3 million tons.
YY_Sima Qian
@trollhattan:
And air defense, armored vehicles, naval surface fleet, submarines. Lately, though, India has been opting for western designs for combat aircraft and diesel-electric submarines.
kalakal
@trollhattan:
There’s speculation about the UK supplying Storm Shadows after Sunak announced they were going to supply “longer ranged weapons”.
Storm Shadow
Anonymous At Work
@Geminid: Anyone got a source on the sunflower oil situation? Grain isn’t quite so fungible as people may think, but pressed oils are even less so.
Another Scott
@trollhattan: JDAMS are 25+ year old technology, and are amazing. And it seems that VVP has nothing like it.
323 page .PDF RAND report on NATO’s Air War for Kosovo:
PDF page 111:
Startling accuracy.
Cheers,
Scott.
Wombat Probability Cloud
@Alison Rose: Thanks for your humor, and your heart, in these nightly postings.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: Using Mykolaiv means the grain ships will have to traverse the mouth of the Dnipro, that is awfully close to the front lines. Highly likely the Russians will take pot shots.
Alison Rose
@Wombat Probability Cloud: Well hey, de rien. I try to aim for an even balance between humor/heart and bitchy. Sometimes it tilts more one way or the other :P
Gin & Tonic
Not sure it’s been mentioned here, and a quick search of the last few nights didn’t turn it up, but there’s a new documentary film about the war called “Rik” (means “year” in Ukrainian) by director Dmytri Komarov. Extensive interviews with Zelensky, Reznikov, Zaluzhny and others, along with harrowing footage from Irpin, Bucha and other places. Two one-hour segments. I’ve had to break my watching into smaller chunks for mental health reasons. Anyway, on YouTube with English subtitles.
Geminid
@Anonymous At Work: It could be that seed oils are covered under the grain deal. Various grain industry new sites seem to be covering the grain deal closely, so there may be something like a Vegetable Oils Today site that reports on sunflower oil.
The World-Grain.com article did describe efforts by the EU to enhance overland routes, so maybe some oil is being shipped by railroad in tank cars. Also, I remember reading about a protected route by which barges could reach the Danube navigation basin from western Ukraine.
Wombat Probability Cloud
There’s a new poster over at kos who is in Kyiv and answering questions: KyivGuy.
I don’t have the background to evaluate, but he seems legit and informative to me. Your take?
counterfactual
@Anonymous At Work: If I understand correctly, the Russians want to push the front 10 to 20 km north to put the rail hub at Tokmak and the highways across norther Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts out of reach of Ukrainian artillery. Until the Kerch Strait Bridge rail line is fixed, there’s only one rail line to supply all of the Russians in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. So it’s a sensible target, but the Russians as always keep repeating what failed last time.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: Ukraine will not get the Port of Mykolaiv covered by the grain deal unless Turkiye wants that. But if that’s what Erdogan wants, he could also send a frigate or two to escort the grain ships, maybe with some F-16s circling nearby.
Russia tried to suspend the deal last December, after Ukraine attacked ships off Sevastopol with sea-going drones. Erdogan and his defense minister said the shipments would continue and they did continue. All Russia did was grumble.
Erdogan is clearly playing both sides in this war, but I don’t think that’s because he’s afraid of Russia or even sympathetic. He’s using Russian money and Russian oil to bolster his country’s crappy economy. But Erdogan also knows that Turkiye has Russia outgunned in the Black Sea, and Putin knows this too.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: That close to zones of active combat the Russians can claim stray artillery shots, rather than anti-ship cruise missiles or torpedoes (which are far less plausibly deniable).
marklar
@japa21: I was thinking that too. If we were planning on providing F16s to Ukraine, announcing it would give Russia time to prepare for countermeasures.
If, OTOH, we’re training Ukrainian pilots on their use, we can announce our providing them with the weaponry at the same time they can use it in the theatre, leaving Russia relatively underprepared for their being used.
I’d like to think that Biden is cunning enough to be thinking this way.
Omnes Omnibus
@YY_Sima Qian:
The Black Sea is pretty big. Ships aren’t really. Stray shells just happening to hit ships is damned unlikely, so unlikely that it is frankly ludicrous.
patrick II
A remarkable Ukrainian dance/ tumble /light-show team finished third on America’s Got Talent All – Star tonight. They competed against acts from all over the world. If you would like to see them, the performance was on last Week’s show – The results of the vote was tonight.
It was great to see them and sad that (I assume) that they are returning to a war torn country.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: The Russians had better not hit a Turkish ship with a stray shot. They’ll shoot back, and might shoot back even if only a civilian ship was hit.
But this could only occur if an extension of the deal broadens it to include the Port of Mykolaiv. That will be up to Turkiye I think, and if they really want this I don’t think the Russians are in a position to say no.
A more likely outcome though is that the deal is extended another three months and the question of Mykolaiv gets deferred.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
thank you, saw it earlier today but no link to the film.
Jay
@Geminid:
warships, not just ships
YY_Sima Qian
@ Adam, what do you think of the Franco-German-UK (the last a surprise) proposal for security guarantees for Ukraine?
This against the backdrop where I keep seeing unsourced references, in western MSM articles, to officials in DC, Brussels, London, Paris & Berlin believing the war is heading toward a stalemate. I don’t know where the pessimism is coming from, given the current & foreseeable state on the front lines.
In any case, Putin is not open to any negotiations. We talked about the platitudinal nature of the 12-point positions published by the Chinese MFA on 2/24, which included several that displayed strong sensitivity & sympathy to Russia’s claimed equities & interests. While no one is taking this document seriously (it is not a “plan”, “proposal”, or “initiative”), Putin has had one of the stronger negative reactions:
Well, China has not recognized Russian annexation of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Crimea, or the 4 regions in eastern/southern Ukraine. It will not recognize these annexations. Likewise w/ all of the other straddlers.
Geminid
@Jay: That’s what I meant with regards to Turkish ships, as in “frigates.” Although there may be Turkish flagged cargo ships involved in the grain transport.
YY_Sima Qian
@Omnes Omnibus: The channel at the mouth of the Dnipro is not big at all. The Russian’s don’t have to hit the grain carriers, just make the insurance rate jump & deter the shippers. They can’t do that once the ships are out into the open Black Sea, not ships that leave from Odesa.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid:
Will Türkiye send frigates & F-16s all the way to the mouth of the Dnipro? If grain carriers are leaving from Mykolaiv, that will be the the most vulnerable spot.
Omnes Omnibus
@YY_Sima Qian:
I am not saying they won’t shoot at grain ships. I am saying that doing so offers no more plausible deniability than a missile or torpedo would. Direct fire is obviously not deniable, and hitting a ship “by accident” with indirect fire is rather unlikely.
ETA: I would think that the insurers have already priced that danger in. It is what they do.
Chetan Murthy
sigh: https://suspilne.media/381881-ne-varto-mriati-pro-nezdijsnenne-90-bizenciv-ne-povernutsa-v-ukrainu-direktorka-institutu-demografii/
bookworm1398
On the Biden tweet, looks like Russia took his advice and made friends with Iran. I’ve been wondering how that happened, they weren’t friends 20 years ago. Did they grow closer during Syria, do they seem closer than they actually are?
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: That’s will be an interesting question if and when the Port of Mikolaiv begins to operate. My guess is that Turkiye won’t allow the grain deal to be extended to shipping from Mikolaiv at this time, and will wait and see what the situation is when the deal is extended again in June (assuming there is another 3 month extension). Ukraine may not even need that port capacity right now, but is looking towards the future. They also have an interest in Turkiye involving itself further on Ukraine’s side in this conflict, and the Black Sea grain initiative does this.
In military terms, the Turks might not fear putting their warships at risk near the port of Mikolaiv.I think that Russia has a lot more to lose than Turkiye does if a shooting war in the western Black Sea area were to break out between the two countries
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid Yes, that makes sense. The premise for my entire line of questions is shipping grains from Mykolaiv.
Geminid
@Omnes Omnibus: And right on time:
Carlo Graziani
@Anonymous At Work:
Late, as I’m on CET until next weekend. Nonetheless:
I think the significance of the Vuhledar and Kreminna offensives is that this is what Gerasimov promised to do in exchange for command, and it’s what is expected of him. He was part of a cabal that undermined Surovikhin as too defensive-minded, and he appears to have promised to use Russia’s mobilization- and new semester conscription-juiced manpower to seize the initiative, driving the UA back in Kharkhiv to recover the losses from the September offensive and launching a new offensive to reverse the momentum of the UA coming out of the Kherson campaign.
Early signs are that he overpromised across the board. Putin rewards loyalty rather than performance, so his job is probably not at risk from his failures. But he might have to move back to a desk job in Moscow if the UA should inflict any serious reverses on the Russians.