Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

There’s always a light at the end of the frog.

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

FFS people, this was a good thing. take the win.

Nikki Haley, who can’t acknowledge ‘slavery’, is a pathetic shill.

Fundamental belief of white supremacy: white people are presumed innocent, minorities are presumed guilty.

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

It looks like winning debates is a black job!

Everyone is in a bubble, but some bubbles model reality far better than others!

Bark louder, little dog.

He seems like a smart guy, but JFC, what a dick!

There are consequences to being an arrogant, sullen prick.

But frankly mr. cole, I’ll be happier when you get back to telling us to go fuck ourselves.

with the Kraken taking a plea, the Cheese stands alone.

Usually wrong but never in doubt

Another missed opportunity for Jamie Dimon to just shut the fuck up.

I’m starting to think Jesus may have made a mistake saving people with no questions asked.

If West Virginia and San Francisco had a love child.

Nothing says ‘pro-life’ like letting children go hungry.

Hey Washington Post, “Democracy Dies in Darkness” is supposed to be a warning, not a mission statement.

When the time comes to make an endorsement, the pain of NYT editors will be palpable as they reluctantly whisper “Biden.”

…and a burning sense of injustice to juice the soul.

Every one of the “Roberts Six” lied to get on the court.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

The gop is a fucking disgrace.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 371: Fortress Bakhmut Still Stands!

War for Ukraine Day 371: Fortress Bakhmut Still Stands!

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Before we get going just a quick note on Lucky the cat. First, thank you to everyone who expressed interest, indicating they were going to check with friends and relatives, or who stated they’d contribute to cover the transportation fees if necessary. As soon as we know where Lucky is going and what costs, if any, there are, we’ll get back to you all regarding contributions to cover them. Also, thanks to TaMara for doing the repost with the update for me earlier as I was way away from anyplace I could do it. And to Watergirl for helping get my email address squared away. Second, those of you who did email me: I have forwarded your emails to Sheryl and she will make what she thinks is the best decision for Lucky based on her communicating directly with you. She does work all day so if you haven’t heard yet, I expect you will tonight or tomorrow. Just sit tight. Your willingness to adopt, to help in other ways, and your patience is greatly appreciated. And please remember, Sheryl doesn’t want to have to rehome Lucky, so please keep that unfortunate reality in mind.

Two other quick housekeeping notes:

  1. EZSmirkzz (or anyone else): do you know who actually owns/runs the BigProject.co.uk site you provided the link for. There’s no about page I can find, but under the header it does say AmazonUK. So is it AmazonUK or someone else? Thanks for the link and in advance for an answer to this because not even with my keyword search fu was I able to find an answer.
  2. Everyone who has been thanking me for the updates: you are all most welcome and thanks for the kind words. I very much look forward to doing my last War for Ukraine update and I hope it will be sooner rather than later.

With all of that out of the way, here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

We are gathering as much as possible support for Tribunal over Russia’s aggression against Ukraine – address of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

3 March 2023 – 21:01

Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!

Today in the morning – in Lviv, was a very busy day. Meetings, negotiations, the United for Justice Conference dedicated to the restoration of justice for Ukraine. Now Lviv, all of Ukraine have attracted the legal vigor of all of Europe and our other partners.

Representatives of the countries of the European Union and European institutions came to the Conference. In particular, the European Commissioner for Justice, the head of Eurojust. And also representatives of the UK and the United States.

Attorneys general and justice ministers of various countries are in Lviv today. The President of Latvia, the Deputy Prime Minister of the Government of the Netherlands, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Estonia – active lobbyists for justice – are our special guests, and I held separate negotiations with them today.

The main issue of all these meetings and the Lviv conference is accountability. The accountability of Russia and its leadership is personal! For aggression and terror against our state and people. And when there is their accountability, justice will be restored.

We are gathering as much as possible support for the Tribunal over Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. For the draft of our resolution on the protection of international law, which will be put to a vote in the UN General Assembly. We are doing everything to ensure that the International Criminal Court is successful in punishing Russian war criminals. And that our national law enforcement and judicial institutions ensure fair sentences for all Russian murderers and executioners.

A separate meeting with the attorneys general of partner states and international institutions was very fruitful. We see the protection of the rule of law in the same way.

Negotiations with the foreign ministers of the Netherlands and Estonia were also fruitful.

The negotiations with the President of Latvia, who today, by the way, visited Ukraine for the third time during the full-scale war, went very well.

We also signed an important bilateral declaration with our Latvian counterpart. The declaration that enshrines justice at the political level. Latvia fundamentally supports the full integration of Ukraine into the European Union and NATO and will defend this position at all levels.

So, today is a really fruitful day.

And what is very important – this day began with honoring the heroism of our soldiers. In the morning, I visited the Lviv hospital, where our soldiers are being rehabilitated after wounds. I had the honor to communicate with the soldiers and present them with state awards.

I also presented awards to doctors who save the lives of our soldiers.

Together with the President of Latvia and the first ladies of our states, we honored the memory of fallen heroes at the Field of Honor at Lychakiv Cemetery.

And I thank all partners of Ukraine. I thank every leader, every politician, every public figure of the helping states – for understanding the price that the Ukrainian people pay for their freedom and that of all Europeans.

Every day, Ukrainian heroes give their lives to stop Russian aggression.

And that is why the world has a clear moral obligation to our soldiers, to each and every one who is currently in battle and who defends freedom.

This duty is to restore justice and bring the terrorist state and its leadership to justice. And it will be.

Today, we have someone to celebrate for success on the battlefield.

I thank the soldiers of the 27th Pechersk Brigade of the National Guard, who are fighting near Donetsk. They are skillfully destroying enemy equipment.

I’m thankful to the anti-aircraft guns of the Air Force – they shot down another Russian bomber. The Nikopol anti-aircraft missile regiment. Keep it up, warriors!

I thank the soldiers of the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade, 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade, 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade, marines from 35th Brigade, gunners from 55th Artillery Brigade…

The decent repulse of the enemy now is a prerequisite for the success of our defense operations in the coming months.

I thank the soldiers of the 128th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade and the First Tank Brigade, who are defending Zaporizhzhia region. Well done, guys!

And of course, I thank each and every one of the Khortytsia task force, who defend Bakhmut, who persistently and bravely performs combat tasks.

Glory to all who are now fighting for Ukraine!

Thank you to everyone who brings the victory of our people and the historic sentences to the organizers and perpetrators of Russian aggression closer!

Eternal memory and respect to all those who gave their lives for Ukraine and the salvation of our people!

Glory to Ukraine!

And here’s his address to the United for Justice Conference. Video with English subtitles followed by English transcript:

The world needs a real embodiment of the rule of law to protect humanity from the source of all aggressions – the address of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the United for Justice conference in Lviv

3 March 2023 – 20:40

Every shot that takes an innocent life must result in a legal and fair sentence that punishes murder.

Every violence that destroys a person’s life must result in a legal and fair judicial decision that protects human dignity.

These are constants for civilized and democratic countries. For the countries in which the rule of law is consistently ensured.

But it is time to make it constant for international relations as well.

The constants that will act universally and most importantly – irrevocably in relation to any violator of international law.

Especially when it comes to the crime of aggression.

The world needs a real embodiment of the rule of law, which is guaranteed to protect humanity from the “right of force” – from the source of all aggressions.

Dear attendees!

Dear Mr. President, and First Lady!

Our dear guests!

Numerous words of conventions and other international treaties for the protection of people and humanity should become concrete legal decisions and actions.

The noble intention of the creators of international law should be reflected in the energy of international justice.

In response to all the crimes and injustices caused by Russian aggression against the state of Ukraine and against the civilized system of the world, all the necessary steps must be taken by us and you. Steps for the sake of one result.

The result that will unite the civilized world. It will testify to the reality of the rule of international law. Namely:

The President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, and all his accomplices must receive legal and fair sentences. For everything they did. In the name and memory of all whose lives they took, and whose destinies they destroyed.

For the aggression they unleashed.

The world must strongly respond to Russian aggression and terror with all the strength of the common heritage of our nations. Law is one of the core elements of the firmness of human culture.

Any revenge cannot do what justice can do. The law is able to ensure not only the prosecution of the perpetrators of specific crimes. Including the perpetrators of the most serious crime, the crime that gives rise to all other crimes of war and genocide, the crime of aggression.

The law can eliminate even the hypothetical possibility of feeling impunity for those who are capable of starting terrorist wars.

The real rule of law at the global level, and therefore effective international justice, would protect the world from such wars and their terrible consequences.

What did this year, which you and I just saw on the screens – the year of the terrorist war – bring to Ukraine? Only one year…

Over 70,000 Russian war crimes have already been recorded. But, unfortunately, we do not know about all crimes at the moment.

A large part of our territory still remains occupied, and we cannot currently reliably predict how many Russian crimes we would discover after the occupiers are expelled.

However, it is clear how serious these crimes are. What the scale of the criminal manifestations of Russia’s aggression is.

We remember everything. We remember Bucha – and what the Russian soldiers did there.

We remember the village of Yahidne in Chernihiv region, in fact, the concentration camp into which the occupiers turned the basement of the village school. For weeks, more than three hundred people – from the elderly to children – were kept there. In the confined space, in the dark, in the suffocation.

We remember the numerous abuses and rapes of adults and children, which forever changed the world’s view of what Russia is and what it is. We remember that, fleeing from Ukrainian land, the occupiers leave behind torture chambers and graves.

We remember thousands of terrorist attacks by missiles, thousands of terrorist attacks by drones – attacks against our people. We remember dozens of cities and villages in Ukraine burned by Russia.

Therefore, we can predict what else we would face when we return to the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.

Mariupol and Volnovakha, Olenivka, and dozens of other places where Russia brought death and suffering have yet to reveal the full truth to the world about the atrocities of the occupiers in Ukraine.

And you and I have to prepare a complete toolkit – both at the national and international levels – so that justice will work in relation to all aspects of Russian aggression. And in relation to all the perpetrators of this aggression.

We now have data on thousands of civilian victims of the Russian attack. Thousands… But it is obvious that the occupier took the lives of a much larger number of our people. Absolutely all of us understand that. We all seek to punish the terrorist state.

It is the moral and legal duty of the world to the victims of Russian terror. And It is the security duty of the civilized and democratic world to any nation that may be threatened by the same aggression as Russia.

Dear attendees!

I ask you now to observe a moment of silence in memory of all Ukrainian men and women who were killed by Russian aggression, the memory of each of our soldiers who gave their lives to stop evil.

*

 

Today, the President of Latvia and the very experienced lawyer, Mr. Egils Levits is here in Lviv. The First Lady is here.

The Deputy Prime Minister of the Government of the Netherlands, a country that is one of the world leaders in the protection of justice and international law, is here. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Estonia, who vigorously and professionally defends Europe and the international order.

The Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Mr. Karim Khan, is here, the European Commissioner for Justice, the President of Eurojust. Attorneys general and ministers of justice, special representatives of partner states – Europe, the United Kingdom, the United States.

The legal community of Ukraine and many countries of the world is represented here.

Thanks to this Lviv conference, thanks to you, we can develop a new format of international cooperation for the sake of justice.

It was in Lviv that at one time great figures studied and worked, Raphael Lemkin studied and worked – the author of the concept of genocide as a crime, thanks to which international norms for the prevention of genocide and punishment for it were determined.

The name of Hersch Lauterpacht, one of the most famous architects of the modern system of international law, is associated with Lviv.

Louis Sohn studied and worked in Lviv – another outstanding personality whose work we see today in the existence of UN institutions and international justice.

Today’s meeting here in Lviv has a solid historical foundation, a solid scientific and legal basis.

We have to do it – and we will do it! – another Lviv’s contribution to international law. Another Ukrainian contribution to international justice. Right here and right now, we are bringing the process to a completely new level, a complex process, in the final of which there will be verdicts. Sentences to those who are guilty of Russian aggression.

The first thing we must achieve: our union for justice must become a powerful impetus for the adoption of the draft Ukrainian resolution by the UN General Assembly – the resolution that would contribute to the creation of a Special Tribunal on the crime of Russian aggression against Ukraine.

The tribunal will become the link that will solve the problem of the impossibility of the International Criminal Court to prosecute precisely for the crime of aggression.

An office is opening in Ukraine, the Prosecutor General said about it. I consider this a great event for justice – the office of the International Criminal Court is opening. And we will further strengthen our relationship with the ICC, which will help bring to justice citizens of the terrorist state guilty of crimes under the jurisdiction of the ICC.

We should pay special attention to the crimes committed and being committed by Russia against our Ukrainian children.

It is about the deportation of children, the abduction, and attempts to erase the national and family identity of our children.

The national judiciary and all its institutions must also work at full capacity.

We understand that the majority of Russian crimes on Ukrainian land and against Ukrainian citizens would receive a fair response precisely within the framework of our national jurisdiction.

And I thank everyone who is already helping to implement each of these three large-scale tasks.

Now, in Lviv, we have to define the correct priorities in this work.

Doctrinally and terminologically, politically and practically – we have to give answers to the question of how to go flawlessly through the entire process of bringing the Russian occupiers to justice – from gathering evidence and identifying each culprit to making guilty verdicts, from making the necessary decisions to actually securing justice for Ukraine, for our people, for all victims of Russian aggression and for the whole world.

Let everything that we still lack be heard and supported today here in Lviv, so that one day we can say absolutely abundantly: the murderers have been punished, the dignity and honor of the people have been protected, the damage has been compensated, and justice has won.

I wish all of us, all of you, fruitful work! Thank you for your attention!

And please remember – what exactly allows us to be united now, united for the most important thing – justice.

Every person matters. That is, every person is important, every life is important to us.

Glory to all these great people – to all those who protect Ukraine and the international order on the legal front! I also want to thank you for that.

Glory to all who are now fighting for Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situations in Bakhmut and Kreminna

Bakhmut:

Earlier today reports started coming in that a major road in and out of Bakhmut had been blown up:

Machine translation of the quoted tweet:

The bridge in the village of Khromovo was blown up, this was the last road along which it was possible to move away from Bakhmut towards Chasov Yar. Looks like they’ve gone.

And then that the rail bridge had been blown:

And the machine translation of this quoted tweet:

#Бахмут ( https://goo.gl/maps/FpdVXU5GFgS86UP67 ), blowing up the railway bridge over the river Bakhmutka https://t.me/supernova_plus/18021 #RussianUkrainianWar

 

Here’s the machine translation of the quoted tweet:

Friends, at the moment there is no withdrawal of troops from Bakhmut. Fighting continues in all areas of the city, 93 stands and continues to perform the tasks assigned to it. The situation is actually complicated, but trust only official sources and do not panic.

However, Bakhmut is still accessible:

And still holding!

And here’s Hromadske’s most recent video reporting on Bakhmut. With English subtitles!

‘The toughest time for us’ — at the positions of 93 mechanized brigade in Bakhmut

458,162 views Premiered Mar 2, 2023

In the second half of August, the Russians were stating that they were occupying some positions in the town of Bakhmut, on its eastern edge, namely on Patrice Lumumba Street. At that time, the Wagnerites occupied several houses on the outskirts of the town. We – Nastia Stanko and Kolian Pastyko – got to Bakhmut at the end of February. This is our sixth visit to this city since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. In May, we ate in a pizzeria in the town’s center. In June, we were in the hospital, which was considered to be quite remote from the frontlines. In July, the fighting was on the outskirts of Bakhmut, but the active shelling of the town had already begun. We remember that in July 2022, the military did not want to take us to the place where we had arrived at the end of February 2023. In mid-August, when the battles approached the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut, the 93rd Brigade, which had been redeployed here from the Izium direction, took up positions here. It held the lines until October, then went on a two-week rotation and returned to the town until December. At the end of 2022, our crew witnessed the work of the brigade’s medical company at the medevac point in Bakhmut. Today, the street where this medevac point was located is being shelled by ATGMs. The brigade went for another month of recuperation and returned to Bakhmut to fight in the streets. Our report features the newly mobilized, crew of an infantry fighting vehicle that comes within 8 meters of the Russians, and Roman Ratushnyi’s activist and friend from Donbas, who uses a drone to adjust artillery fire to destroy Russian tanks and infantry. It’s no secret that it’s hard here. And there is almost nowhere to retreat in the city. But Bakhmut is a fortress. And it is still standing.

I’m purposefully not posting the Prigozhin video. If you want to see it it is easy enough to find online.

Kupiansk:

Crimea:

Zaporizhzhia:

Prudianka:

Interfax Ukraine is reporting that President Zelenskyy has stated that artillery systems and ammunition for them are Ukraine’s greatest need right now:

Artillery and shells in large numbers are a priority military need of Ukraine in the war to stop Russia, President Volodymyrr Zelenskyy has said.

“Artillery is the number one of what we need. Both systems and ammunition, as well as shells in large quantities, to stop Russia. Not to shoot at their territory, but to throw them out of ours,” Zelenskyy said at a press conference with Latvian President Egils Levits in Lviv on Friday.

Answering journalists’ questions about what Ukraine needs to do to speed up the supply of weapons for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Head of state noted: “To speak publicly about what we lack.”

In addition, according to him, the states that help Ukraine can also absolutely publicly support the supply of this or that weapon.

“Also about airplanes. There is also a deficit with planes and it’s difficult to start training. We have said this and we have confirmation from the UK and Poland. Today we talked about where our partners from Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia can help us in training missions. We need planes. Just not to say and promise something there, but just to train our guys and transfer planes,” he said.

Speaking about the situation with the supply of tanks, Zelenskyy expressed confidence that Ukraine will soon receive its tank army. Constant coverage of the shortage in equipment by partners will be able to accelerate this process.

“Anyway, we will get a tank army. I am absolutely sure of it. We are already seeing how our Armed Forces, our guys are being trained. It will be all over soon. But, nevertheless, there is a corresponding deficit. To close [with the help of partners] just all these holes – a constant shortage – that’s what can help us. And believe in victory, as we do. And then we will win,” the president concluded.

Aux Arms Citoyens!

Machine translation from the Pravda Geraschenko (I think this is Anton Geraschenko) Telegram page:

France considers transfer of Mirage fighter jets to Ukraine — BMFTV

BMFTV reports that France is considering transferring 12 Mirage fighter jets to Ukraine, which were decommissioned and stored during the summer of 2022. The country’s Defense Minister Sebastian Lecornu confirmed this information, but did not provide any details about the transfer of aircraft or the training of flight personnel. According to the report, pilots can be trained in Poland.

Lecarnu pointed out that there are difficulties with the transfer of aircraft related to logistics, training and maintenance capabilities.

#foreign_media
t.me/Pravda_Gerashchenko
/65804
148.7Kviews
Mar 2 at 08:53

All the normal caveats about the time it takes to transition to a new aviation system and platform for pilots, maintenance crews, the logisticians and acquisitions folks, etc apply here as they do with all the other potential NATO fighter jets that could be potentially offered to the Ukrainians.

The New York Times has some reporting on a Ukrainian war game held under US supervision – I’m guessing the US wrote the scenarios, provided the observer controllers, made the complication injects into each round of scenario game play – to facilitate the planning for Spring and Summer Ukrainian efforts.

WIESBADEN, Germany — With winter almost behind them, senior American generals hosted Ukrainian military officials this week for a set of “tabletop” exercises designed to help Kyiv map out the next stage of its battle to reclaim territory from dug-in Russian troops.

During a war-game session at the headquarters of U.S. Army Europe and Africa, the military officials rehearsed a range of options for an offensive that Ukraine’s leader, President Volodymyr Zelensky, has been telegraphing for some time.

The sessions, attended on Thursday by President Biden’s most senior generals responsible for American efforts to help Ukraine, were meant to strategize, officials said, mapping out the risks and benefits of a variety of moves that Ukraine might make against Russian positions in the coming months.

Ukrainian officials will ultimately decide which course to follow, with the American military officials described as serving like a sounding board.

After one session on Thursday, Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the supreme allied commander for Europe, praised the Ukrainian military’s “phenomenal” adaptability and said, “We’re going to help them adapt more.”

The United States and NATO, he said, “can keep going as long as necessary.”

The war games come as Ukraine is emerging from a winter that was expected to provide a lull in fighting. But both sides continue to take heavy casualties in the Russian onslaught against the eastern city of Bakhmut.

Earlier this week, Mr. Zelensky appeared to signal that Ukraine was preparing for a major offensive. He said in a speech that he had met with top officers in the military about preparations, as well as about shortages in weaponry and ammunition.

Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, attended the exercises on Thursday. In discussing them afterward, he described a huge table with maps and icons and other military paraphernalia meant to represent potential battles.

“The Ukrainians are moving things around on these maps to determine what is their best course of action, and they determine the advantages and disadvantages of the risks associated,” he said. “It’s a common thing that all militaries do.”

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General Milley refused to detail the options that the Ukrainians tested during the exercises. But other senior American officials, military analysts and Ukrainian officials themselves have suggested that Kyiv might try to move against Russian defensive lines in the northeast or eastern parts of the country, including in Donetsk and Luhansk.

Ukraine could also mount an offensive in the south, targeting the so-called land bridge that connects the Russian mainland to Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula illegally annexed by Moscow in 2014. In January, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III told a Washington Post columnist, Max Boot, that a “realistic goal for this year” would be for the Ukrainians to cut the “land bridge.”

General Milley said that in addition to providing tanks and ammunition and fighting vehicles, the Biden administration was intent on helping Ukraine’s air defenses, a task that Pentagon war planners deem critical. Western officials have warned that if Ukraine runs out of the weaponry it has used over the past year to keep Russian war planes at bay, Moscow could quickly gain a stronger hand.

“The most important priority the Ukrainians need right now is air defense,” General Milley said. “That is what President Zelensky has asked for — the ability to continue to defend the airspace of Ukraine against the Russian onslaught by Russian aircraft and missile attack.”

Much, much more at the link!

Before we get to what you really come here for every night (typos and other grammatical errors), I want to post bits of this thread. Dmitri and his team are doing immense work providing translations and subtitles for videos and of interviews for those of us who are not Ukrainian or Russian speakers. These are not machine translations, they are being done by people who actually speak, read, and write the languages they’re translating from.

Here’s the Kraken bubbas:

And 9.3 SOF:

If you’ve got a little extra this month, this is a worthy cause.

Your daily Patron!

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

🙂 #песпатрон

♬ Hi – temoc🍉

Open thread!

 

Reader Interactions

56Comments

  1. 1.

    Anonymous At Work

    Adam,

    Given UA’s success in the north last year, I’m tempted to say that the Crimea route makes the most sense since it is open terrain better suited for the rapid advance they used to destroy so much of the RU forces.  Which makes the RU attacks on Vuldehar all the more puzzling.  Depleting tanks and trained soldiers that won’t flee or surrender if attacked?  Am I missing something?

    Also, does anyone have a good source of updates for Kherson and Dnipro situation?  I saw that the latest arms packages included extending platform bridges but the Dnipro will need more than that.

  3. 3.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Anonymous At Work: The Russians want Vuhledar because of its elevation. They desperately need high ground.

    As for Kherson and Dnipro, I post the updates on those when I see reporting on them I think is reliable.

  4. 4.

    NotMax

    FYI.

    Initial U.S. intelligence suggesting that China is considering supplying lethal aid to Russia for its war in Ukraine was gleaned from Russian government officials, according to one current and one former U.S. official familiar with the intelligence.

    U.S. officials then spent weeks corroborating the information from other sources of intelligence, the current and former officials said, and with allies who also brought additional streams of information. Source

  5. 5.

    Chetan Murthy

    @NotMax: Jesus, I hope that info did *not* come from Russian officials.  The idea that we’re leaking the provenance of dynamite intel like this is disturbing.  OTOH, if it came from  someplace close to the Chinese, then leaking that “it was the Ruscists what done it”, would be brilliant.

  6. 6.

    Alison Rose

    I was surprised to hear Zelenskyy use putin’s name in his speech, since he has for the most part avoided saying it. It sounds like a curse to me now.

    I love seeing him visiting wounded soldiers, because it’s so clear how much it means to both him and them, and there’s such a sense of humanity and compassion from him. Plus posing for selfies with the guys is a sweet thing to do.

    There’s a destroyed russian tank on display in Lithuania’s capital, and someone left a toilet next to it. I chuckled.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  9. 9.

    Anonymous At Work

    @gwangung: No, this felt like a warning shot across China’s bow.  The “TikTok debate” and the CHIPS Act have China worried that it could be cut off from important suppliers and important importers of Chinese goods.  Add in extending EU and US trade sanctions to Chinese firms doing business with RU, and suddenly there are cities with unemployed people who have nothing to do but complain about rich Chinese plutocrats.

    The US intelligence community said, “We know you are thinking about it; we’ll call you out, name the companies and not even give you time to hide it, then deny it, then shift the blame around, and then end it for a little while.”

  10. 10.

    RaflW

    @Anonymous At Work: Yeah, it certainly felt to me like it was of a piece with the Biden strategy to declassify and release various bits of intel in the run-up to Feb, 2022 that exposed the Russians. But this time to expose the Chinese and let them know we won’t just overlook arms-to-Putin.

  11. 11.

    Another Scott

    Thanks for the update.

    Made me look…

    TheBigProject.co.uk seems to be an updated version of an old “Internet Hot List” – a handy list of links for when one doesn’t want to use a search engine (or from back in the olden days when they didn’t exist yet).  The Amazon.co.uk stuff just seems to be affiliate links.

    It looks like it gets kickbacks on referrals to other sites, so that’s how it makes money.

    I can’t find an “about” either and there’s nothing obvious to me in the page source (ctrl-u in Chrome). Whois doesn’t give a lot of information either.

    HTH a little!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  12. 12.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Anonymous At Work: Bakhmut was a Prigozhin vanity project to prove that he, and only he of any of the Russian commanders, could take a Ukrainian city. Vuhledar is something else entirely. It has real theater strategic importance because of its terrain.

  15. 15.

    Geminid

    @Anonymous At Work: Operating across the Dnipro River would be difficult, but Ukraine’s army does not need to attack across it. The Dnipro River marks the front line from Kherson until it turns north, near Zaporizne. The Ukrainian front line extends east from that bend, from the “left bank” of the Dnipro for a couple hundred miles or so to near the city of Donetsk.

    That is the stretch of front that Ukraine will likely attack across if they try to drive south to the Sea of Azov, and cut the Russian “land bridge” to Crimea. The present front line runs more or less parallel to the Azov coast in that sector, and around 90 miles to the north of it.

    That area between the battle front and the Azov Sea happens to be where the Institute for the Study of War’s maps show an irregular blob described as “partisan activity.” That’s kind of a notional designation as we do not know the strength of partisan and special forces there, or the scope of their activities. This would change if and when Ukrainian forces break through the front and drive for the seacoast..

    That’s also when we’ll find out if the Russians have the capability to mount effective counterattacks. They’ll have to, but lately Russian performance in “set piece” attacks has been so poor as to indicate that they may not be able to effectively attack Ukrainian forces that have broken through the front. Ukrainian anti-air defenses will still be critical.

  17. 17.

    Carlo Graziani

    On TheBigProject.co.uk: here is the publicly-available DNS data about their domain:

    Domain name:
    thebigproject.co.uk

    Data validation:
    Nominet was able to match the registrant’s name and address against a 3rd party data source on 09-Oct-2015

    Registrar:
    Ionos SE [Tag = 1AND1]
    URL: https://ionos.com

    Relevant dates:
    Registered on: 26-Mar-2000
    Expiry date: 26-Mar-2023
    Last updated: 25-Mar-2022

    Registration status:
    Registered until expiry date.

    Name servers:
    ns1025.ui-dns.biz
    ns1025.ui-dns.com
    ns1025.ui-dns.de
    ns1025.ui-dns.org

    WHOIS lookup made at 01:38:22 04-Mar-2023

    Which is not super-informative, other than the bit about the domain name having been registered in 2000, which indicates a long-term presence. The stability of the registration update date (Created March 23, updated March 22) suggests that it has been in continuous existence since then, and updated regularly without a lapse.

    Further digging by querying the ip address of the server indicates that their internet service is the same as their domain name registrar, ionos.com, a large European service. I’ll spare you the whois noise. The registration appears to be in Germany. The admin and tech contacts correspond to an Ionos employee. It all looks legit.

  19. 19.

    lowtechcyclist

    This question may have already been answered, since these threads usually happen too near my bedtime to participate in.

    It’s clear that the U.S. is not going to give Ukraine F-16s anytime soon. And apparently there are good reasons for that, and I’m too much of an ignoramus about these things to even have a side in that debate.

    But how about Warthogs? The purpose of the A-10, AIUI, is to provide close air support to troops attacking on the ground. And of course the expectation is that Ukraine will be launching a ground attack this year, this time with Leopard tanks, Bradley fighting vehicles, etc. Again, I’m an ignoramus about these things, but ISTM that training Ukrainian pilots on the A-10 and then giving them enough of them to make a difference would be a good thing.

    And I’ve been hearing for years that the U.S. military has been trying for just about forever to phase out the Warthogs, but the pilots really really like them. Maybe this is the way to do that!

    So, feel free to tell me why this idea isn’t nearly as good as it sounds to me. I don’t mind having my ideas demolished if I can learn something from the demolition.

  20. 20.

    Geminid

    @lowtechcyclist: Has Ukraine asked for A-10s? They haven’t been shy about asking for what they want. A-10s may be too vulnerable to anti-aircraft weapons to use in this war..

  21. 21.

    Anonymous At Work

    @Geminid: That’s my analysis from my armchair as well.  Drive south, hit the Sea of Azoz, make Russians to the east of the Dnipro flee into Crimea and cut the Kerch Bridge (again) to starve & dehydrate the troops, while you drive east to Mauripol.

    And Putin has shown that he “cares” about Crimea as a trophy, so he’ll lash out internally if it looks like he might lose it.  Which is how this war ends: Kleptocrat-icide inside Russia removes all the advocates for the war.

  22. 22.

    Yutsano

    @Geminid: I’ll pick the brain of a friend of mine who’s an A-10 mechanic. Maybe he can explain why this is or is not a good idea.

  23. 23.

    Another Scott

    @lowtechcyclist:

    BusinessInsider from 2018:

    […]

    An Su-25 was shot down over Syria’s Idlib province on Saturday by rebels using what Russian authorities say was a MANPAD. The pilot safely ejected, but got into a firefight with rebels on the ground before blowing himself up with a grenade to avoid being captured.

    Su-25s are the Russian counterpart to the American A-10s.

    They’re both heavily-armored aircrafts capable of delivering a variety of bombs and missiles. Both are also armed with a 30mm guns and often used for supporting ground troops at low-altitudes.

    It’s at these times when they’re most at danger, as MANPADs are not effective at altitudes above 15,000 feet.

    Warthogs have been operation in Syria since 2015, and last month, the US announced it was sending them back to Afghanistan.

    Su-25 crash Syria
    Su-25 wreckage in Syria. Reuters
    “It is entirely plausible that an A-10 could get hit,” Justin Bronk, an airpower and technology research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, told Business Insider, adding that it’s “something Western militaries have been worried about for some time.”

    While “both the A-10 and Su-25 carry radar warning receivers, neither is equipped with missile approach warning systems capable of providing reliable detection and tracking of incoming heat-seeking missiles such as MANPADS and have to rely on flares and defensive maneuvring to avoid being hit even if the pilot does manage to detect a hostile launch,” Bronk said.

    […]

    There are always counterpoints, but I think the A-10s time has passed.

    YMMV. HTH a little.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  24. 24.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Geminid: If they run true-to-type, the UA will take advantage of their interior lines and their efficient and largely intact rail network to one-two punch the Russians at widely-separate sectors of the front, similar to the Kherson/Kharkhiv campaigns of Fall 2022.

    Which direction they regard to be the priority campaign is not clear to me now. There’s a vital operational objective in separating the Belgorod depot from its  entire theatre of support, by severing the easternmost N-S rail line from Russian territory to Starobilsk. And, there’s a vital strategic objective in cutting off the land bridge. If I had to armchair-general a choice (heaven forfend!) I’d say that the former is more achievable than the latter, and contributes to making the latter less of a heavy lift. It also makes Russia’s position in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts nearly unsustainable. So there are my priors.

  25. 25.

    Amir Khalid

    @Geminid:

    I hear that Warthogs are most effective where air supriority has been established, because they are not fighter planes and not great at defending themselves from an airborne threat.

  26. 26.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Amir Khalid: From what I’ve read on the subject, in the current MANPADS-rich air defense evironment, Warthog survivability estimates are not great, given their specialized ground-attack role. The Russian ground forces can make the battlefield just as inhospitable to them as the UA have for Russian aircraft.

  29. 29.

    Omnes Omnibus

    I wonder if everyone is familiar with the backstory of St Olga of Kyiv. I think many of you may find it entertaining. Among other things, she liked birds.

  30. 30.

    Anonymous At Work

    @Carlo Graziani: I don’t see there are enough routes to Starobilisk from UA front lines for UA to get there (although it would be key).  Also, the interior lines no longer favors an attack eastward.  Now that UA is getting Excalibur rounds with a longer range, I think ammo dump hunting is back in season and disrupting supply lines may offer better returns.

    But I am an armchair type.

  31. 31.

    Jay

    @lowtechcyclist:

    A-10’s would be better than Su-25’s. They carry a larger payload, smart weapons, have better “defences”, a better gun, better avionics,

    but there is still the training, service, maintenece, logistic train to deal with.

    Many pilots hate the A-10 because it’s not a fighter jet. Grunts love the A-10.

  33. 33.

    Carlo Graziani

    ISW today, on Bakhmut:

    Ukrainian forces appear to be setting conditions for a controlled fighting withdrawal from parts of Bakhmut. Russian forces have been fighting to take Bakhmut, a city with a pre-war population of roughly 70,000 people, since roughly May 2022 and have suffered devastating casualties in the process. Geolocated footage posted on March 3 confirms that Ukrainian troops have destroyed two critical bridges in the Bakhmut area—one across the Bakhmutivka River in northeastern Bakhmut and one along the Khromove-Bakhmut route just west of Bakhmut.[1] The preemptive destruction of bridges is likely an indicator that Ukrainian troops may seek to inhibit Russian movement in eastern Bakhmut and limit potential westward Russian egress routes out of Bakhmut. Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Oleksandr Rodnyanskyi previously stated on February 28 that Ukrainian forces could choose to pull back from positions in Bakhmut as needed.[2] Rodnyanskyi also noted that Ukraine has fortified the area west of Bakhmut such that even if Ukrainian troops begin to withdraw, Russian forces would not necessarily be able to rapidly take the entire city.[3] If the Ukrainian military command deems it necessary to withdraw from Bakhmut it will likely conduct a limited and controlled withdrawal from particularly difficult sectors of eastern Bakhmut judging from Ukrainian statements and reported Ukrainian actions.

    That sounds on the mark to me. The point of diminishing returns has arrived, and it’s now time for the UA to retreat to the next line, and invite the Russians into the next killing ground.

    One fact that I believe has not received enough notice is that the UA have not suffered a single route in this war, despite being continuously pressed by a numerically-superior force in Donetsk/Luhansk Oblasts since last March. That is unusual, and significant, in my view. You would normally expect such a situation to eventuate in a series of desperate rear-guard actions characterized by continuous emergencies and exploitable forced errors on the defensive side. The fact that the Russians have been unable throughout the war to use their force preponderance to shape the tactical environment in their favor anywhere, at any time speaks volumes concerning their ineptitude at combined-arms operations, and concerning the UA’s impressive professionalism.

  34. 34.

    Jay

    @Jay:

    Orxy has 28 Su-25’s from both sides downed so far. Russia has lost far more attack helicopters than that. Almost as many MIG’s.

  37. 37.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Anonymous At Work: That line need not be severed at Starobilsk, which in any event is now in GLSDB range. Any interruption between Starobilsk and Vovchansk, on the Russian border will do.

    Note also that the Ukrainian Railways reopened Kupyansk for service within weeks of its reconquest. The point of.UA’s exploitation of interior lines is to shift forces rapidly between theatres at much lower disruption to operations than is possible for the Russians. That possibility exists now.

  40. 40.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Carlo Graziani: Since you are a railway fan, be aware that Alexander Kamyshin, head of Ukrzaliznytsia, is leaving that post to open a Eurointegration office of Ukrzaliznytsia. Not sure where he will be stationed, but somewhere in the EU. This seems to indicate the UA government’s confidence in continued integration with the EU.

  41. 41.

    Mallard Filore

    From the Professionals Study Logistics department … maybe. It could really be an accidental event.

    YouTube link: https://youtu.be/EnXZ7k4x2dU
    video title: “The Most Important Bomb Factory of the Russian Defense Industry Is on Fire!”

    “… The fire occurred at the Chapaevsk Mechanical Plant in the city of Chapaevsk in Samara Oblast, Russia. This factory, considered the center of the Russian Defense Industry, was one of the largest factories producing explosives used by the Russian army. …”

    It looks like a transcript of that segment is available under the video by clicking ‘Show more”.

    News provided by some entity in Turkey: http://www.ankadailynews.com “The Heart of the World is Beating on ANKA Daily News Channel!”

    —

    ETA. Messed up my name.

  42. 42.

    NobodySpecial

    @Another Scott: I used to have that site solidly bookmarked in the oughts to get English language links to major European newspapers. It’s legit, and I’m amazed to see it’s still around.

  45. 45.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Another Scott:  One keeps hearing that about the A-10.  One also keeps hearing that tanks are obsolete, and there is no real place for artillery on the modern battlefield.  And yet, look at how this war is being fought.  The air power and the counterinsurgency advocates can be fashionable for a while, but the combined arms theories that go back to antiquity still work.

  46. 46.

    Kent

    Bridges like that first small one in the linked twitter posts should be trivial for the Ukrainians to fix.  This part of the world (the Pacific Northwest) is riddled with tens of thousands of miles of logging roads that constantly cross streams like that.  Drop in a few steel culvert pipes, dump a couple of dump truck loads of gravel over the top, bulldoze  the thing flat and you are done.  They can get it operational in hours.

    One doesn’t want to make a permanent bridge that way.  Permanent bridges will be built much higher, because you need to build a permanent bridge high enough to clear the worst predicted floodwaters from the worst 100 year storm or it will wash away at the first flood.  But for a temporary bridge that only needs to last a week or so over a medium or small stream, just drop some culverts in and dump gravel over the top.  That has the added advantage of probably being indestructible from shelling.  Or easily fixed.

    Bigger rivers are an entirely different proposition.

  47. 47.

    kalakal

    @Omnes Omnibus: The other beloved magic bullet is special forces. Politicians love them. The problem is they end up becoming an instead of rather than an as well as to large scale regular forces.

    Large scale mechanized armies are really expensive and can’t be magicked up overnight, Western Europe was awash with weaponry in the 70s & 80s., now they’re finding out they can’t field 200 working tanks

  48. 48.

    Kent

    @kalakal: The US has just fought way too many wars in the developing world where special forces plus air power gives on overwhelming superiority.

    That just isn’t going to work against a conventional force.  But we haven’t really faced a real conventional force of near peer strength since the Korean war.  The Iraq war doesn’t really count as they are so unbelievably overmatched on a conventional level.

    Special forces is what you use for something special. Like blowing up the Kerch Bridge.  Or taking out an airfield.  Not winning a land battle.  The allies found that out during WW2 with operation Market Garden where special forces (airborne) came against an armored division.

  49. 49.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Kent: Doctrinally though, throughout the Cold War (even during Vietnam), what we really trained for was armored warfare on the European continent.  Our sand tables for tactical training were German towns along the IGB that I actually recognized when I got over there.  This war is what we were learning to do.

  50. 50.

    kalakal

    @Kent: Slim was particularly scathing about Wingate’s Chindits in Burma in WW2. Air transport supply was vital in that theatre and he considered ( rightly) that the Chindits were a resource and manpower suck that greatly hindered his operations. Slim was annihilating the Japanese 15th army, the Chindits were, at great cost, performing nuisance raids

  51. 51.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Kent: Airborne divisions aren’t really special forces.  They are just light infantry divisions with red hats.

  55. 55.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: The Vilkha-M, due to its being a further development of the Soviet era 300 mm Smerch, it is not surprising that it would outrange the 227 mm HIMARS launched munitions & carry a bigger warhead. China has  been offering 300 mm MLRS variants w/ 150 – 200 km range & CEP < 5 m w/ civilian GPS guidance. Russian has been offering the same w/ up to 150 km range + civilian GPS/GLONASS guidance. Domestic Chinese variants can achieve sub-meter CEP using military grade Beidou system. Like so much of the Russian military industrial complex, it does not appear that the seemingly advanced systems & munitions that have been offered for export for years have actually been widely deployed in the Russian military, & what have been deployed have not been used effectively.  I would assume the Vilkha-M is using civilian GPS for guidance, which would likely mean CEP of ~ 2 – 5 m.

    The game changing aspects of HIMARS are the how integrated it is to the NATO C4&ISR,  the ability to deploy & redeploy w/in a couple of minutes, & its strategic mobility afforded by transport via the C-17s. Combined, HIMARS can receive & execute fire missions very quickly, & shoot & scoot extremely quickly. That’s what sets it apart from the Chinese/Russian/Ukrainian MLRSs. Using military grade GPS, HIMARS munitions can achieve sub meter CEP. HIMARS in Ukrainian service probably is not integrated into NATO C4ISR. What we have seen the HIMARS afford the Ukrainian Army is rapid shoot & scoot (thus much less vulnerable to counter-battery) & high accuracy.

  56. 56.

    lowtechcyclist

    Thanks, all, for the education on A-10s – I can now see why they’d be iffy in this sort of battlespace.

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