(Image by NEIVANMADE)
The Ukrainians continue to bleed the Russians, primarily Prigozhin’s mercenaries, at Bakhmut. We’ll get to that after the jump.
First, a quick note about Lucky. First, I want to thank everyone who expressed interest in adopting her, as well as those of you that offered to help get her to wherever her new home would be. I cannot thank you all enough. Second, just to reiterate, the process here was those of you interested in adopting sending me an email, then I sent them to Sheryl, then Sheryl reached out to some or all of you. And based on that Sheryl made her decision. I was just facilitating. Also, I know that several of you were really looking to give Lucky not just a forever home, but the best forever home possible. Sheryl has decided that grandmabear is the right person for Lucky and in two weeks Sheryl and her partner will drive Lucky north and meet grandmabear who will drive south and meet them halfway. I have no doubt that those of you who really wanted to do right by Lucky feel let down, because you’re great folks with big hearts, but at the end of the day there was one cat and five of you who offered to take her. I’ve known Sheryl for over a decade. I also know that having to give Lucky up was not easy and, as a result, the decision was made solely on what she thought would be best for Lucky. That doesn’t mean anyone wrote or did anything wrong. I was not involved in making the decision at all and didn’t find out until Sheryl told me this afternoon when I got my hair cut. Again, I want to thank everyone who offered to provide Lucky with a forever home and those who offered to help with transportation and costs. You are all the best bunch of commenters, lurkers, and readers. And I cannot thank you enough.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
The world is strong enough to punish Russia for the war, and we will provide courage and tools to make it happen – address by the President of Ukraine
5 March 2023 – 20:25
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
Today marks the end of the first week of the new spring, and it is important to make a few meaningful points about what we have managed to accomplish this week. Accomplish for Ukraine.
A large-scale conference was held with the participation of many of our partners – lawyers from Ukraine, Europe and the world. United for Justice. Step by step, we are moving towards ensuring that the terrorist state is held fully accountable for what it has done to our country and our people.
All Russian murderers, every organizer of this aggression, everyone who in any way sustains the war against our country and terror against our people must be punished. And this is not just a dream of justice. This is work that is already underway. These are agreements that we are already reaching. These are institutions that are already working and will work even harder to restore justice, to punish those responsible for aggression.
The world is strong enough to punish Russia for the war. And we will provide the world enough courage and tools to make the punishment happen. Our confidence in this matter grows stronger with every passing week. And I thank all our partners who help build a network of legal cooperation to ensure that the relevant verdicts are delivered and implemented.
The second important result of this week is the energy sector, the start of preparations for the next heating season. It is already underway. We are working on all scenarios and will do everything to be ready to face any threat next winter.
In six months, our energy sector, government officials, the security and defense sector, and all those involved in the implementation of the relevant tasks must do very specific things. Strengthening the protection of energy facilities, restoring the infrastructure that has been destroyed by Russian strikes over the past six months, and giving our people more opportunities as part of the energy system decentralization project so that they can generate and supply electricity on their private territory, at their private facilities. This is a big undertaking, and it has already begun.
The third result I would like to point out. International relations. Contacts at the highest level with Brazil have been resumed. I spoke with the new President of Switzerland. There were also contacts with the Netherlands, Latvia, Estonia, the European Parliament and other EU institutions. Over the past week, we have reached new agreements with all of them, new movement towards our common goals, and new potential for cooperation.
And, of course, this week is another week when our warriors and everyone who helps defend the state made Ukraine’s victory even closer. They repelled assaults, destroyed the occupier, undermined enemy positions and logistics, and protected our borders and cities. I am grateful to all those who are currently in combat! I thank everyone whose life saves the life of Ukraine!
Today I would like to pay special tribute to the bravery, strength, and invincibility of the warriors fighting in Donbas. It is one of the toughest battles. Painful and challenging. The 93rd separate mechanized brigade “Kholodnyi Yar”, the 77th separate airmobile brigade, the 56th separate motorized infantry brigade, and the 5th separate assault regiment. Our National Guard and border guards are also there. The 3rd operational brigade of the National Guard. Donetsk, Luhansk, Kramatorsk border guard detachments and consolidated detachments “Dozor”, “Volyn”, “Chernihiv”. Thank you, guys! I thank all the soldiers, guardsmen and border guards who are defending our country in the Bakhmut, Vuhledar, Avdiivka, Siversk, Svatove, Lyman and Zaporizhzhia directions.
I am also grateful to every volunteer who helps our guys keep their resilience! I am thankful to all our medics and nurses who save the lives and health of our fighters!
We are already preparing for the next week, and there will be new results for Ukraine.
We will endure, drive out the invaders, and bring them to justice. Ukraine will emerge victorious!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situations in Kreminna and Bakhmut (newest of the two Bakhmut updates first):
KREMINNA AXIS /2000 UTC 5 MAR/ RU resumed offensive operations across the P-66 HWY north of Kreminna. A RU probe at Novoliubivka was repelled by UKR forces; a RU attack on Chervonopopivka was also rebuffed. UKR launched 10 aviation strike missions. pic.twitter.com/MyVtnrFcaI
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 5, 2023
BAKHMUT CITY /1510 UTC 5 MAR/ Simplified TACMAP of lines of contact in Bakhmut urban area. Based on 0600 (Local) briefing of UKR Gen’l Staff. #Bakhmut #BakhmutHolds #BakhmutDefenders pic.twitter.com/3ekuA4SXdc
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 5, 2023
BAKHMUT AXIS /1215 UTC 5 MAR/ RU renewed unsuccessful attacks across the M-04 HWY. UKR carried out 18 aviation strike missions, targeting RU troop concentrations, air defense sites and a bridge. Missile/ artillery units hit RU troops, EW stations and air defense complexes. pic.twitter.com/qykjRCoYBD
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 5, 2023
Basically the Russians have not been able to close around Bakhmut. And in doing so they’ve created a pair of salients for themselves. One to the north and one to the south. As you can see on the map immediately above, the toute from Bakhmut to the prepared fall back position at Chasiv Yar is under Ukrainian control.
Bakhmut:
The animals of Bakhmut.
📹- Volunteer Home/Instagram pic.twitter.com/1UAOkAsqLb
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) March 5, 2023
This is #Bakhmut today
Watch to the end🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/fNBYwjlwbt
— АЗОВ South (@Azovsouth) March 5, 2023
.@AP reporting from a hospital in Bakhmut pic.twitter.com/ssM8SvS7mN
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 3, 2023
Yana (Yara) Rykhlitska, 29, volunteer and paramedic of 93rd brigade, died near Bakhmut.
Yana was killed while evacuating the wounded – the ambulance she was in was shelled.
Eternal memory to Hero! pic.twitter.com/73tmqIW1V0
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) March 5, 2023
Many have met this young and charismatic combat medic Yana Rykhlitska, who worked near Bakhmut. Now you won't see her again. Russia killed her. Yana and another medic were killed during the evacuation of the wounded near Bakhmut. Rest In Glory, Hero. pic.twitter.com/xQPKlWbSx7
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 5, 2023
Girkin and Prigozhin have decided to get into a pissing match. Black Sea Cossack versus convict (Rooster/offended):
Girkin claims the video with Prigozhin that surfaced yesterday was actually made at the peak of the shell conflict two weeks ago. Despite that, Girkin suggests Prigozhin must be immediately removed from Wagner's leadership due to his psychopathy, https://t.co/kP6areI2bE… https://t.co/8Ddcscb8jI pic.twitter.com/5onV7H4tEq
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) March 5, 2023
Prigozhin fires back feces at Girkin pic.twitter.com/4mVAcPbjj3
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) March 5, 2023
Here’s the translations as screengrabs:
Vuhledar:
Vladimir Solovyov has posted a video of what he says is him coming under artillery fire during his latest visit to Ukraine
He was ostensibly with the 155th naval infantry brigade, which Ukraine claims has been getting absolutely hammered near Vuhledar https://t.co/NxAny7KlHo pic.twitter.com/vz7Mz1OICy
— Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) March 5, 2023
Russian propagandist Solovyev says he was shelled while visiting Russian troops near Vuhledar.
He said there was an information leak about his location. pic.twitter.com/hvO3C8TGi5
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) March 5, 2023
I hope he wore his brown pants!
Zaporizhzhia:
The number of people killed as a result of a russian missile attack on a residential building in Zaporizhzhia has increased to 13.
Rescuers recovered from under the rubble the body of an 8-month-old girl who died with her family.
11 people were rescued.#russiaisaterroriststate pic.twitter.com/MCWdt8GPpR— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 5, 2023
The body of 8 months old girl was found in Zaporizhzhia under the rubble of the residential building hit by the Russian rocket.
Baby girl died with her parents.
Death toll of the strike is currently 11 people. Search&rescue operation continues, there are still people missing. pic.twitter.com/KGbmSNXwmi
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) March 4, 2023
Liza the cat was saved from the rubble in Zaporizhzhia after the Russian rocket strike.
Her owner, thankfully safe and sound, was waiting for Liza. pic.twitter.com/LMZqoRbobx
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) March 4, 2023
Marinka:
Left: Hiroshima, Japan
Right Mariinka, Ukraine pic.twitter.com/9D1LVJuB2O— Julian Röpcke🇺🇦 (@JulianRoepcke) March 5, 2023
Gdynia, Poland:
Equipment of the 3rd Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division at the Port of Gdynia, Poland. 🇵🇱🇺🇸
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) March 5, 2023
Just to be clear, this 3ABCT/1CAV’s equipment. It is not being sent to Ukraine as some videos seem to be suggesting by not mentioning who this belongs to.
The Russian way of war:
This video was filmed by the BBC in 1994, some time after Russia attacked Chechnya and started the First Chechen War.
Nothing's changed since then. pic.twitter.com/n8W4TwFTMm
— Pekka Kallioniemi (@P_Kallioniemi) February 13, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
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Open thread!
WaterGirl
Shelling ambulances. The people who do that are inhuman.
japa21
Watched 60 minutes. They interviewed 3 women who were in the military and captured by the Russians in Mariupol. It was heartbreaking. They were all exchanged for in September, one giving birth 4 days later. From what they said, the male prisoners were treated far worse that the women, including being raped, having to cut tattoos off their skin, torture, etc.
Spanky
Well, it was always extremely rare when I got lucky, anyway.
(I was not one of the Five.)
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: If they were firing at the ambulance, it is a war crime. If they were firing at legitimate military targets and the ambulance happened to be hit, it was not. I would not discount the possibility of the Russian military deliberately targeting ambulances, but I do not know what happened in this case.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: I appreciate that information. It seems like they do a lot of shelling ambulances, so I made the assumption that at the very least it’s not something they avoid doing.
Gin & Tonic
@WaterGirl: They shell hospitals. That is not an accident. They do the same in Syria.
lowtechcyclist
Adam, I’d be interested in your thoughts on this piece by Yaroslav Trofimov and the comments by Rob Lee and Michael Kofman. The key point they’re arguing seems to be this: that the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian deaths in the Bakhmut front has gotten worse for Ukraine since they’ve lost the flanks, and that while a lot more Russians than Ukrainians are getting killed there, the Russian losses are ill-trained convicts. Meanwhile the Ukrainian losses are their good troops, they’ll need enough troop strength to mount an offensive in the spring, and their defense of Bakhmut may make this problematic.
Not saying they’re right or wrong, but Lee and Kofman are voices I’ve come to respect.
ETA: belatedly added the link.
Alison Rose
“due to his psychopathy” LOLOL what, like that’s unusual among russian orcs and their Sarumans? I’m wondering though…if prigozhin does get replaced, where does he go? Some other military job? Desk job in the kremlin? Out a window into the bed of a truck hauling sharpened knives and angry snakes?
When I saw that Zelenskyy had talked to Lula the other day, it was yet another reason to be very very relieved he won the election and booted out Bolsonaro and his “we’re gonna remain neutral so I don’t make Daddy putin mad” BS.
The video of the dogs and cats…I often wonder about that trauma. Of course, the trauma and terror is massive for the people around them, but similar to babies and very young children, you can’t explain to an animal what’s happening or what the noises are or anything. They all look so shaken and frightened. I’m always glad to see pics and videos of Ukrainian troops caring for them
Thank you as always, Adam.
Anonymous At Work
@Gin & Tonic: The problem is that war crime accusations and investigations go through the UN. Otherwise, the Russians firing the guns or giving the orders would have to confess in public to the crime. Mutually-Assured-Destruction tactic built into the UN Security Council that helped prevent things getting ugly in the Cold War, but only working to shelter a few nations from outside investigation today.
Ivan X
I’m gonna make a request that I fear will not go over well but it’s been nagging at me and I don’t really know where I could ask, and I simply ask that you believe me when I say that I am asking it in good faith. (But, am I being naïve or ignorant? Sure, that’s another possibility entirely.)
The request is: Can Adam, or anyone else here, articulate the pragmatic counterargument(s) to the Great Nations Do This Stuff And We Could Have Predicted As Much And Shouldn’t Have Provoked Russia And We Should Negotiate A Settlement Which Really Means Conceding To Russia For The Sake Of All The Lives Being Lost positions of jerks like Mearsheimer and Sachs?
My entire exposure to their arguments has been through Isaac Choitner’s interviews with them in the New Yorker and their invocation by a tankie friend. I enjoy Choitner’s Socratic questioning, but I feel like their cases are never really rebutted, even if they rely a whole lot on “because I just know this to be true and you should just listen to me,” and their characters are revealed as dubious by having associations with authoritarians like Orbán.
What’s their deal? Are they on Russia’s payroll? Are they has-beens trying to remain relevant and reveling in their contrarianism? Are they authoritarians? Are they simply arrogant idiots?
Just to say, I believe sovereign nations should be sovereign, it’s in ours and Europe’s interest to fight for democracy, it’s in the world’s interest for Russia not be able to redraw borders by force, and Ukraine should not live under Russia’s thumb if they don’t want to. In other words, I believe absolutely in the moral correctness of the US providing support for Ukraine in this war.
But I also was more enthusiastic when Ukraine was kicking ass and taking names months ago before we got into the brutal, deathly grind of the last many months, that seems to portend many more months or years of the same, and also makes me worried that, as Adam has said, running the clock works better for Russia than Ukraine.
Mearsheimer even goes so far as to say that sure, it would be morally good if Ukraine could chart whatever destiny they want for themselves, but that’s not the hand they were dealt. Mearsheimer, Sachs and their ilk are making the “fuck around and find out” argument from Russia’s side, and it’s an argument I sort of understand. Russia might be a belligerent society, but they are numerous and well armed, and we know this.
So, Jackals, help me out. What does one say in response to people who say “this is who Russia is, so that’s what you gotta accept”?
Anonymous At Work
Adam,
I wanted to ask about Russia’s top diplomat getting mocked in India. Am I correct in my understanding that it was a forum to facilitate Indian fronts helping to launder extremely-discounted oil from Russia? In any case, the Indian hosts were laughing and mocking at the idea of Russia’s at a forum at least nominally friendly for Russia.
Anoniminous
@lowtechcyclist:
Unless they have a direct line into the Ukrainian Army they don’t know anymore than we do.
Amir Khalid
@WaterGirl:
The Russians haven’t hesitated to deliberately attack civilian targets, so one expects them to attack ambulances as a matter of course.
Omnes Omnibus
@Gin & Tonic: The difference in is in proving it. Something big and stationary like a hospital is pretty obvious. Something mobile and small like an ambulance being hit by artillery shells is harder to establish. Artillery isn’t used on things like that as a general rule because it is not designed to hit small moving targets.
Amir Khalid
@Ivan X:
One says, “Fuck that noise. Imperialist aggressors must be defeated, or the whole world loses.”
Jay
@Omnes Omnibus:
the groups charged with investigating Russian War Crimes in Ukraine have documented over 34 cases of Russian artillary targetting a civillian target, putting up a drone, then reshelling the places when the fire and ambulances arrive.
Military ambulances/medics are marked with a red cross, deliberately targetting them is a war crime, unless they are armed and conducting combat operations.
That is something that in war, has often happened. When the enemy ignores the red cross, and makes them a target, eventually they ignore their non-combatant status, carry arms and kill enemies.
Mallard Filmore
@Anonymous At Work:
According to Professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld from Yale School of Management, in the YouTube video
link: https://youtu.be/QU0resswOds
title: “The true impact of a year of war on Russia’s economy | DW Business Special”
Russia is losing money on every barrel of oil that they ship to India and China.
Omnes Omnibus
@Jay: Yes. I know that. I said, in my first sentence, that deliberately targeting an ambulance is a war crime.
Chetan Murthy
@Ivan X: I’m sure others have their own thoughts on this, and IANAI(nternational)R(elations)E(xpert), so, grain of salt, eh?
There are lots of ways to respond, but I like the “realist” position, myself. That is, let’s take their “realist” position:
My response:
A. Russia is a has-been Great Power, heading down fast, depopulating, with basically only raw materials exports and nothing else that anybody else wants. It’s a kleptocracy, kept alive by trade with Western companies for everything that makes a nation worth having.
B. When a has-been heads towards the rear exit, Realist International Relations says that the other Great Powers carve up its realm. It’s too bad for the Russian people, sucks to be them.
Fin.
See what I mean? If you subscribe to Mearsheimer’s morals-free approach, then really, the Russians are just meat waiting to be scarfed-up. We shouldn’t take any other utterances by Putin and his sycophants seriously.
Another way I like to think of it, is that Mearsheimer and his crew are giving a theory for international relations when things are stable. It’s like equilibrium economics theory — it’s only useful when there’s no storm. Or as Keynes once put it:
Mearsheimer & co have a theory that works when there’s no storms. But when there’s a storm? Well, then they can only tell us “keep a-goin’, keep a-goin'”. It’s useless as a guide for action. And again, all of this is on the assumption that we care not one whit for morality — that we’re just looking for guidance for dealing with other nations to our own nation’s benefit.
Gin & Tonic
@Ivan X: If Ukrainians don’t wish to accept it, then who the fuck are you to tell them they have to?
Anoniminous
@Ivan X:
What Gin &Tonic said
That’s the standard Authoritarian line as outlined by Prof. Bob Altemeyer in his book “The Authoritarians.” Basically, Right Wing Authoritarians (RWA) believe the world is going to hell in a hand basket, e.g., Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, and there’s nothing anyone can do about it. Additionally, RWA blame the victim; if Russia invaded Ukraine then it is Ukraine’s fault.
Jay
@Omnes Omnibus:
it’s really not about that. Ukraine and The World just lost another caring, intelligent, talented person who was beyond brave.
zhena gogolia
@Ivan X:
I think all of the above are distinct possibilities. I too am not impressed by Chotiner’s pushback, which doesn’t push very hard, so ends up just giving them a platform. Why anyone listens to Sachs about anything is a mystery to me.
(druzhyna hoholya)
Jay
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXKUNc9yI2A
Perun takes a deep dive into Wagner,….
Omnes Omnibus
@Chetan Murthy: Another take is that the “Realists” are full of shit on this. My undergrad advisor was a Realist and Morganthau was our primary text. Realism in IR terms talks about how things work. Nations act in their own interest. Sure, but what are those interests? And that’s where it falls down. One could decide that self-determination and international cooperation are in one’s national interest. Then one’s actions might not fit what today’s so-called Realists would expect.
Omnes Omnibus
@Jay: Deleted.
Ivan X
Thanks all for these answers. It is comforting (though I recognize that comfort is not the goal here, and that Ukrainian victory is).
Jay
@zhena gogolia:
back in the 90’s, I worked for an “International” forestry Corp, that thought that Siberian Forestry was a good investment. That aspect lasted 6 months until the guys in the Black Mercedes showed up with AK’s and “acquired” all the investments they had made.
Made legal by the regional Governor, with 9 of “those” armed guys standing around him.
Robber Capitalism meets the guys with actual guns.
F*ck Sacks.
Jay
@Omnes Omnibus:
understood.
Chetan Murthy
@Omnes Omnibus: 100% agree. I remember reading once that when a Power wants to push back against another Power, one of the ways we do it is to acquire clients on the border of that other Power. That is to say, the US acquires clients like Turkey & Ukraine, and the USSR acquires clients like Cuba and Nicaragua. Again, purely power, not about morality or decency. It is in our interest — our long-term interest — to smack down Russia, and doing so when Russia is weak, using Ukraine as our instrument, is only smart power politics.
And as you say, Mearsheimer has nothing to respond to this. B/c at the end of the day, he presupposes that Russia gets to keep its sphere of influence. I mean, would he be arguing that the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires should be kept intact after WWI also ?
Jay
bookworm1398
@10.
There are two arguments, both of which can be illustrated by examples of Afghanistan.
One, only the Ukrainians can decide if they will fight or not. We, the US, can send them no weapons but they can choose to continue the fight with unequal resources for twenty years till Russia gives up. With as many or more deaths and destruction overall.
Two, if Russia is defeated here, it will create an anti war attitude in Russia. If they win, they will then attack somewhere else.
Alison Rose
Great photos here from Saint Javelin on FB
Andrya
@lowtechcyclist: One aspect that your sources appear to not have considered is that the russian losses have been so severe that at some point, probably soon, draft resistance/evasion is going to accelerate. The very large amount of death/severe injury is going to become known no matter how much propaganda and intimidation try to cover it up. A larger population won’t do putin much good if most military age men are in Turkey, Georgia, or Kazakhstan. Think of the last stages of WW1 when their were mutinies/revolts in the French army, in Germany, and in Russia. putin has the ability to put down mutinies and riots, but I doubt he can effectively suppress flight on a massive scale.
Jay
Gin & Tonic
@Chetan Murthy: “Client”??
Parfigliano
@japa21: russiaa is a non human quaqmire. Kill them all
Omnes Omnibus
@Gin & Tonic:
He is speaking “Realist.”
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
Chetan is riffing off the leftie Tankies concept of “client”, plus a little bit of history.
Anoniminous
@Omnes Omnibus:
Holy crap! Morganthau is a name I haven’t heard in a long, long, time. All I remember is he claimed to base his understanding on Human Nature and his understanding of Human Nature was generally obsolete shading off into just plain wrong.
zhena gogolia
@Omnes Omnibus: Yeah, I didn’t think those were supposed to be his words.
Jay
@Parfigliano:
yeah,……. no.
Chetan Murthy
@Ivan X: There are many, many more. Here’s another:
We and the entire West have an existential interest in *preventing* the spread of nuclear weapons. If Ukraine loses, then every country with an angry/restive neighbor will race to get The Bomb, b/c what will have been demonstrated, is that without The Bomb, you’re prey. With The Bomb, you can be a predator (b/c nobody will attack you, for fear of their capital being nuked). A world like that is a world with loose nukes (eventually) and nuclear terrorism (eventually). And regardless, eventually some interstate “dustup” will lead to nukes being used.
We have an *existential* interest in preventing the emergence of such a world, and for that to be prevented, Ukraine *must* win.
But let’s switch gears and (h/t to G&T) adduce moral arguments too: the CEE countries joined NATO b/c they wanted to be “normal countries”: to trade, develop, work for the welfare of their citizens, be good neighbors. The US has found that fostering the rise of such countries is good for business, and even as we have been pretty uneven (Iraq, Nicaragua, and on and on) about it, we’ve certainly done a better job than the competition (ffs). We (the West) have a vested interest in Ukraine becoming a normal country, and so we should help them. But (as we learned in AFG) no amount of our “help” will actually cause that to happen, unless the *people* want it. And the Ukrainian people, like the Balts, Poles, Czechs, Romaians, Hungarians (despite Orban, feh), Slovaks, Bulgarians, Germans — they all want it.
Omnes Omnibus
@Anoniminous: It was the ’80s.
Jay
Bill Arnold
@Omnes Omnibus:
Furthermore, nations are rational unitary actors. Like humans are almost always instances of Homo economicus, or close enough for computations that reliably predict their behavior as a collective.
/s
Anoniminous
@Omnes Omnibus:
For me it was 1969/70 in a two semester International Relations class
Chetan Murthy
@Gin & Tonic: As @Omnes Omnibus: noted, I’m trying to speak the language of the “realists”. It’s morally vacuous (at best), but by doing so, I think we can see that it’s also *stupid*. And that therefore, it’s not just that Mearsheimer is carrying water for evil people, but that he’s doing so *stupidly*.
In that language, “client states” are “acquired” by Powers to bolster their hegemony, right? And a power like the US acquires clients nearby the USSR, in order to keep the USSR busy with near-abroad troubles and issues, so that the USSR cannot project their power over distances, say, to foment troubles in our near-abroad. It’s all zero-sum, and purposely so. And the idea that, at a time when our adversary (they goddamn well tried to destroy our Republic, and decapitated our executive branch, installing their fucking puppet) is on the back foot, the *last* thing we should do is give him a helping hand.
In that worldview, the right thing to do is to take them apart, but carefully so that they don’t loose their nukes. But within that limit, take them down.
Again, I don’t subscribe to that worldview: there are many subject people of the Russian Empire who deserve a chance to have decent lives, who deserve to live in normal countries. I remember seeing a map of Russia, colorized by the rate of war fataliities per capita in each region. Every region *except* Muscovy was red or orange (lots of fatalities); Muscovy was navy blue (== “almost no fatalities”). The Russian Empire does what it does best: grinds up the bodies of its oppressed minorities to throw into war against its enemies. That’s gotta stop.
NutmegAgain
@Alison Rose: Hey AR–I found this song, and thought you would really like it. It’s catchy!
Bang, Bang Ivan is Gone
Bill Arnold
@Chetan Murthy:
This is a solid argument, especially vs those who profess to be worried (and perhaps are, perhaps due to Russian propaganda intended to foster such fears for international political gain) about the potential for Russian first use of nuclear weapons.
A world with many 10s of nuclear-armed countries, some of them with batshit crazy leadership or a moderate-to-high probability of such leadership in the next dew decades, is not a safer place.
Alison Rose
@Jay: It’s only imperialism if it comes from the Impérialistique region of France. Otherwise, it’s just sparkling invasion.
Barbara
@Ivan X: That the argument is a stupid tautology to the effect that the way things are is the way they will remain. Remember way back to the invasion by the USSR of Afghanistan — it wasn’t nearly so great a power after as it was before, and Russia will have commensurately less power in the near future, which is a good thing for us and every one of our traditional allies, whether you think that includes Ukraine or not. I have this vision of Mearsheimer earnestly trying to persuade the Huns not to invade Rome because Rome was a great power. I mean, is he still confused by the Fall of Rome?
Jay
Ivan X
And thanks for all the subsequent arguments from #28 onward. There are smart people here.
Andrya
@Ivan X: @Chetan Murthy: What Chetan Murthy said, but I’d like to add a bit: putin is a huge proponent of the fascist philosopher Ivan Ilyn. (putin even dug Ilyn up from his grave in Switzerland and reburied him in russia.) Ilyn taught that the world had become disorderly due to human freedom and free will, and that russia had a holy mission to restore order (presumably the type of “order” that putin has imposed on russia. (My source on this is Timothy Snyder.)
putin also wrote an article, prior to the invasion, about gathering in the russian peoples.
Given this, if (G-d forbid) putin gets away with this, he’d likely be emboldened to go after other countries previously part of the USSR/Russian Empire: the Baltic countries and Finland. And the Baltic countries are NATO members. Abandoning Ukraine creates a major risk of nuclear war.
Another consideration- I wouldn’t want to live under any dictatorship, but not all dictatorships are equally bad. It would have been better to live under Khrushchev than Stalin, for example. Given the level of fear imposed by the putin regime, and the totalitarian control of all information, I’d call the regime a really, really bad dictatorship.
ETA to insert a paragraph I had accidentally deleted.
Manyakitty
@Amir Khalid: this times one thousand. One must repeat it over and over again.
Manyakitty
@Jay: riiiight 😐.
Another Scott
@Ivan X: I haven’t read the other responses, but my counter-argument would be:
What happens the next time?
VVP has made no secret about his intentions – he wants to reconstitute the Soviet Union. He claims that anywhere Russian is spoken is part of Russia.
What happens after he steals Ukraine’s sovereignty? He’s made noises about taking back the Baltic states, and even making a land route to Kaliningrad. He’s continuing to make mischief in Moldova and Transnistria.
What do we do when little green men start claiming land in Poland?
Either we work and fight for our important international institutions and principles and agreements in Europe – like “no changing borders by force” – or the whole international order is at risk.
And then things get really, really dangerous.
If having nuclear weapons means that VVP gets to do whatever he wants, then we’re all doomed. Because he won’t be the only tyrant throwing his weight around expecting that nuclear weapons make him immune…
So, no. They’re wrong. We are correct to support Ukraine, correct to expand NATO, correct to support our friends and allies. Correct to assert that democracy and sovereignty means that countries get to choose their own friends and partners and allies. And correct to make clear to other countries that supporting VVP will be dangerous to their standing in the international community and access to international markets and institutions.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
Timill
@Another Scott: Or, as Kipling said:
IT is always a temptation to an armed and agile nation,
To call upon a neighbour and to say:—
“We invaded you last night—we are quite prepared to fight,
Unless you pay us cash to go away.”
And that is called asking for Dane-geld,
And the people who ask it explain
That you’ve only to pay ’em the Dane-geld
And then you’ll get rid of the Dane!
It is always a temptation to a rich and lazy nation,
To puff and look important and to say:—
“Though we know we should defeat you, we have not the time to meet you.
We will therefore pay you cash to go away.”
And that is called paying the Dane-geld;
But we’ve proved it again and again,
That if once you have paid him the Dane-geld
You never get rid of the Dane.
It is wrong to put temptation in the path of any nation,
For fear they should succumb and go astray,
So when you are requested to pay up or be molested,
You will find it better policy to say:—
“We never pay any one Dane-geld,
No matter how trifling the cost,
For the end of that game is oppression and shame,
And the nation that plays it is lost!”
coin operated
@Amir Khalid:
+1 sir.
Carlo Graziani
@Ivan X: I wrote a BJ guest piece on this topic about a year ago (“Get Real”, unfortunately it appears to have vanished from the site). Setting the well-deserved snark aside, the key point is this: as an analytic framework, realism takes a view very much influenced by the history of 19th Century European great-power struggles. In those essentially non-ideological contests, all parties agreed on what constituted the “state interests” of all contenders, and were able to dialog in straightforward “reasonable” terms about the consequences of power balances upset by war outcomes. Since these outcomes never involved existential threats to any great power, they could always lead to settlements involving cession of territory, changes of colonial control, etc.
As a model for the Russian war on Ukraine, or for the Russian deliberate, long-term effort to undermine Western democratic polities by investing in nationalist/crypto-fascist politicians, realism is basically useless.
In the first place, Putin articulates Russian interests and Western motivations in terms that are not only incompatible with Western understandings of the same, but are actually incompatible with reality. The reconstitution of the Russian empire, and revitalization of the Russian drive to empire, are conceptions tha might have been intelligible in the 19th Century, but are completely anachronistic—and incommensurate with Russian power—today. Putin understands the world of international relations in a manner that is wholly incompatible with how the West understands it. How is any kind of Realist compromise on mutual “interests” to be accomplished if we don’t even live in the same world?
Moreover, a Realist focus on settling the outcome of the war in Ukraine amounts to an obtuse refusal to recognize that Russia has been waging a covert war on the West for the better part of a decade. The influence operations of the FSB and GRU, documented (among other places) in the Mueller Report, amply demonstrate the willingness of Russia to attack the foundations of our society. Russia has similarly endeavored to undermine the democratic polities of France , Italy, Germany, and others. Should Russia extricate itself at non-fatal cost from the self-inflicted wound in Ukraine, it will certainly attempt to renew these assaults. Under the circumstances, a broader “Realist” (or at least, Realistic) outlook on this broader conflict would suggest that the West act to ensure that Russia should suffer maximal damage from its unforced error, and that Ukraine should turn out to be the same sort of graveyard for Putinism that Afghanistan turned out to be for the Soviet Union.
But if you actually listen to people like Mearsheimer, you would think that on January 6 2021 the guy didn’t even have his TV on. Does he imagine that the worst threat to US governance since the Civil War and Putin’s assault on Ukraine are unconnected events?
Russia constructs its world in a manner that is utterly inimical to Western principles, ideals, and desire for lawlike behavior. That is the beginning and the end of the rebuttal to the Realists. They analyze a world that does not exist.
ColoradoGuy
I’ll pile on the “Realism” question. I’ll give a very concrete example.
If Putin wins (because of a GOP takeover), what then of Taiwan? It lies open to conquest, and with isolationist GOP in control, the presence of the US Navy 7th Fleet is no longer guaranteed in that part of the Pacific. All of South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan are exposed to Chinese nuclear blackmail. Those nations would be compelled to covertly develop nuclear weapons as fast as possible. Is that a desirable outcome?
Chetan Murthy
@ColoradoGuy: I read recently (forget where) that Sweden carried out a series of underground explosions with plutonium devices in the 1970s. With the express goal of being able to go nuke-weapon-able in a short time if needed. You gotta believe that Taiwan will do the same, as will Japan and South Korea.
And [yet another chilling part] it ain’t like Japan and South Korea are all sweetness and light to each other. Our hegemony keeps ’em both onside and playing nicely.
Andrya
@Chetan Murthy: And Sweden has their own mini-NATO (mutual defense agreement) with Finland. And both countries are armed to the teeth (for good reason). And Finland was part of the russian empire 1809-1917, so it’s probably on putin’s hit list of “russian peoples” to absorb. (The tsars tried to force the Finns to speak russian rather than Finnish, russian culture rather than Finnish culture, etc.)
So, if (G-d forbid) Ukraine falls, and putin goes for Finland next, nothing could go wrong, right?
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: China will probably invade Taiwan before the latter builds the 1st bomb. However, South Korea & Japan will almost certainly acquire nukes. The subject has already been broached in South Korea, in face of North Korea becoming a de facto nuclear state.
HeartlandLiberal
@Omnes Omnibus: Given the fact that Russia has engaged in indiscriminate shelling and rocket attacks on purely civilian targets, and has engaged in torture and looting, I do not doubt for a moment that Russian forces would commit further war crimes by attacking ambulances and medics. This whole invasion has been one long, sustained war crime.
trucmat
@Another Scott:
By saying you hadn’t read other comments you give the reader an excellent reason to not read yours. Which I didn’t beyond your first sentence.
WaterGirl
@Amir Khalid: I just made that a rotating tag.
WaterGirl
@Carlo Graziani: Was it this one?
https://balloon-juice.com/2022/03/23/carlo-graziani-on-russia-and-ukraine-get-real/
WaterGirl
@HeartlandLiberal:
I would bet real money that at least 85% of the comments on this site are written before reading all of the other comments.
If Another Scott had said something like I haven’t read any of the other comments, but those guys don’t know what they are talking about then your comment would be well deserved.
Marcus
@Chetan Murthy: this is the main point…using the bomb as an extortion tool is a dangerous future…I know why trump favors russia over ukraine..non competive business practices in that realm with just a little Putin hand shake…the US does the same with Saudi Arabia…in return they launder back their money in the US…it’s smart business at the cost of everyone else
Another Scott
@trucmat: Forgive me for not including the word “yet”.
Cheers,
Scott.
Uncle Cosmo
Been trying to tell yinz for quite a while: The reason most bazillionaires worldwide support Putin is that he forwards their own evil agenda of destroying liberal democracy everywhere, so that they own everything and enjoy complete freedom to do whatever they want without the slightest consequences. They consider him one of their own (crappo di tutti crappi?) without the slightest understanding that an oligarch with death squads and nuclear weapons is qualitatively different and would be pleased to send his goons around to confiscate their filthy lucre & send them to GULAG 2.0 (if not a fall from a 10th-storey balcony) the minute the world is safe for Ruscism, i.e., the corporate state with gangsters in complete charge of the corps (and the corpses).
Not gonna get myself in big trouble here by saying out loud what useful imbeciles like Smearshambler and Suchs deserve**. But their estates should be charged for the ordnance used.
** Not to mention Fukhedd Suckeria, but that’s a subject for another day…
Bill Arnold
@WaterGirl:
Could you or somebody ask google to index the site’s archives? (The site owner needs to do it; the procedure looks fairly simple.) The previous indexes sublimated away when the site name changed slightly before resurrection.
I found that link for Carlo (searching an old crawl) but you beat me to it. :-)
The Moar You Know
@Another Scott: Germany. They have no military at all to speak of and the people won’t fight. Poland and the Baltics would be much harder for far less reward.
J R in WV
@Alison Rose:
Quoted for truth, and because I wanted to see it again~!!~
Well said ~!!~ Thanks so much !
Morfydd
@The Moar You Know: And you get to Germany without going through Poland and the Baltics (or Czechia, also not fond of Russia) how?
Germans will fight. Their military’s something of a mess, but the people remember what happened to people when the Red Army rolled in.