(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Just a shortish update tonight. It’s already been that kind of week… I’m aware of and have read the WaPo reporting about what certain Ukrainian Soldiers and anonymous government officials are saying versus the official line of how the war is going. I will try to deal with it tomorrow night.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
The strength of our defense and security forces is in the strength of our people – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
14 March 2023 – 23:37
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
Today is quite an emotional day. I had the honor of presenting state awards to our warriors and the families of our warriors on the occasion of the Day of the Ukrainian Volunteer. To the mother of the Hero of Ukraine Oleksandr Matsievskyi. To the father and wife of the Hero of Ukraine Taras Bobanych.
To the men and women who defend our country, standing up for it at the call of a pure Ukrainian heart.
Today’s decrees honor 363 Ukrainian volunteers, 47 of them posthumously.
Hundreds of thousands of our people have become Ukrainian volunteers since February 24 and since 2014, defending Ukraine from Russian aggression. Millions are helping! They are searching for everything necessary for defense, healing and rehabilitating the wounded, rescuing after Russian strikes, and working for Ukraine and Ukrainians. The strength of our defense and security forces is in the strength of our people.
And the strength of Ukrainians and the state as a whole is based on the fact that Ukrainians become warriors at a crucial time – they do not lose their grip, they fight, they do not seek what doesn’t belong to them, they do everything to regain their own.
We will win this war. We are doing everything for this. We support each other. We reinforce the state. We unite the world for the sake of our victory, which actually consists of the actions of all those who are fighting for Ukraine, who are fighting for our country and for their brothers-in-arms, who are doing everything in order not to let the enemy take either our land or Ukrainian glory.
I would like to express special gratitude for this chevron, Da Vinci chevron of Hero of Ukraine Dmytro Kotsiubailo, which was handed over to me today by Ms. Alina Mykhailova. And for another chevron from the guys, which was handed over at the ceremony. It is an honor for me. Thank you.
I held a meeting of the Staff. There were reports from the Commander-in-Chief, intelligence, and commanders of directions.
The main focus is on the Khortytsia operational and strategic group of troops and Bakhmut. There is a clear position of the entire Staff: to reinforce this direction, to inflict maximum possible damage upon the occupier.
General Tarnavsky then reported on the Tavria, which is part of the Donetsk and southern directions. General Moskaliov reported on the situation for the Odesa operational and strategic group of troops. General Nayev reported on the North.
Of course, we are constantly considering the supply of ammunition and weapons at the Staff’s meetings.
We are constantly working with our partners to increase pressure on Russia.
Today, Mrs. Prime Minister of Iceland paid a visit to Kyiv. A country that helps Ukraine politically and humanitarianly, that adds its voice to the global coalition of defenders of Ukraine and freedom.
We discussed cooperation in the Euro-Atlantic and European directions, in international structures. One of the key issues is the punishment of the terrorist state and all Russian murderers. We are preparing for the Summit of Heads of State and Government of the Council of Europe to be held in the capital of Iceland, which may be of great importance for bringing Russia to justice for its aggression.
Today, I also spoke with Mr. Murdoch, CEO of Fox Corporation and Co-Chairman of News Corp, one of the leading media organizations in the United States.
A year ago, on this very day, a group of journalists working for Fox came under fire from the Russian military in the Kyiv region, in Horenka. Pierre Zakrzewski and Oleksandra Kuvshynova were killed, and Benjamin Hall was seriously wounded. In total, dozens of media workers have been killed and injured in a little over a year. We value every life, and we remember each and every one of them.
Honoring them, honoring all those whose lives or health were taken by this war, we are making every effort to bring the end of Russian aggression closer. To bring the punishment of the terrorist state closer. We are making every effort to bring the Ukrainian victory closer.
Glory to all those who are now fighting for our country!
Glory to all who stood up for Ukraine!
Blessed memory and eternal honor to all those whose lives were taken by Russian shelling and strikes!
Glory to Ukraine!
Jr. Lt. @Mykhailova_A , call sign Ulf, presented a chevrone of her fallen fiance, Jr. Lt, Hero of Ukraine, Dmytro “Da Vinci” Kotsyubailo to @ZelenskyyUA
Alina was awarded the Order of Bohdan Khmelnytskyi 3rd Class. pic.twitter.com/x8aiG3Q8LZ— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 14, 2023
Here’s today’s operational update from Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense. Machine translation from their Telegram channel:
!️Operational information as of 18.00 14.03.2023 regarding the Russian invasion
▪️The Russian aggressor focuses on the offensive in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiyevsky, Mariinsky and Shakhtar directions. The enemy does not leave attempts to reach the administrative border of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
▪️During the day the enemy inflicted 30 air strikes and 8 missile strikes, one of which is in the city of Kramatorsk. Three-story residential building damaged, are dead and wounded among the local population. Another missile strike by the occupiers inflicted on the city of the Gulf of Odesa region – the wreckage of the rocket damaged one of the buildings of the children’s educational institution “Golden Fish”. There are no casualties or losses among the local population.
Also, the occupiers fired more than 33 at jet-fire jet systems.
▪️In the Kupiansky and Lyman directions, during the ongoing day, enemy unsuccessfully tried to break through the defense of our troops. INanother artillery shelling was carried out by a number of settlements along the line of battle, namely: Dvorichna, Hryanovyka, Masyutivka, Krokhmale Kharkiv region; Novoselivsky, Makiyivka, Nevsky, Dibrovka, Belogorivka and Zolotarka of the Luhansk region. The occupiers took unsuccessful offensive actions in the direction of the White Rate.
▪️In the Bakhmut direction the enemy does not leave attempts to capture the city of Bakhmut, where constant positional fighting continues. IN the same time our defenders reflected enemy attacks in the settlements of Yagidne, Khromove and Orykhovo-Vasilivka. Enemy shelling was carried out, in particular, by Nikiforivka, Vasyukivka, Minkovka, Dubovo-Vasilivka, Bakhmut, Ivanovske, Konstantinivka, Kurdyumivka, Ozaryanovka and Dilyivka of the Donetsk region.
▪️In the Avdiivsky, Mariinsky and Shakhtar directions the enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the direction of the settlements of Kamyanka, Nevelsk, Novokalinov and Marjinka. Enemy shelling was carried out, in particular, by Berdychi, Kamyanka, Avdiyivka, Vodyane, Netailove, Krasnyrovka, Nevel, Marinka, Georgivka and Vugledar of the Donetsk region.
▪️During the last day in the village Apricot of the temporarily occupied territory of the Kherson region the enemy, with the active support of the local occupation so-called “power”, carried out filtering measures against the local population. The reason for the search of private homes, the inspection of mobile vehicles, personal laptops and computers was the entry of the Defense Forces of Ukraine into the base of one of the units of the army rf. As a result completely 4 units of armored vehicles ( BMP/SAU) and at least 15 occupiers were destroyed. The number of wounded is checked and clarified.
▪️An additional 1,000 enemy troops have been stationed on the territory of the coastal turbases and boarding houses of the Yalta city of the Donetsk region over the past few days. In this regard, the nearest streets and the entire beach area are completely blocked, additional checkpoints are set up and the number of infantry patrols has been doubled. Equipment of engineering barriers and trenches and molds on the territory of the recreation bases in the immediate vicinity to the places of base of the occupiers was noticed. The number of training shootings on various weapons in the direction of the sea has also increased.
️The Defense Forces aircraft caused a day 9 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the occupiers, and 🇺🇦units of rocket troops and artillery affected 2 areas of concentration of enemy personnel.
Support 🇺🇦Armed Forces! Let’s win together!
Glory to Ukraine!🇺🇦🇺🇦General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Ukraine is a maritime state.
We will defend our Black&Azov Seas as we do our land and skies.
I'm very grateful to the 🇳🇱 people, @MinPres Mark Rutte and my colleague @DefensieMin Kajsa Ollongren for the decision to provide 2 Alkmaar-class minehunters for the @UA_NAVY!
🇺🇦🤝🇳🇱 pic.twitter.com/NSSpUqaUTD— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) March 14, 2023
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situations in Svatove and Bakhmut:
SVATOVE AXIS /2040 UTC 14 MAR/ RU has registered incremental advances across the P-66 HWY between Svatove & Chervonopopivka. The (FEBA) essentially conforms to the Zherebets River valley. A RU probe at Nevske was repulsed. UKR forces are in contact in the urban area of Kreminna. pic.twitter.com/dS5kT3bTsz
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 14, 2023
BAKHMUT CITY /2120 UTC 14 MAR/ RU forces have advanced across the T-05-13 HWY in the northern and southern urban areas of Bakhmut. UKR forces mounted a counterattack at Dubovo-Vasylivka; a RU thrust at Ivanivske was also broken up. pic.twitter.com/kSYBOKt6CA
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 14, 2023
Bakhmut:
"Philosopher" and "Sky" are participants of a famous battle of the 3rd Assault Brigade near Bakhmut. On January 19, lads went to their position and were forced to immediately engage in a firefight with the "Wagner" PMC. In this interview, they give us more https://t.co/IjPintrL6W… https://t.co/JFNgRTdd3s pic.twitter.com/d6Dxp0R4iS
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) March 14, 2023
Vuhledar:
Video from the other side: Intense footage shows a group of Russian soldiers from the 155th Brigade pinned down by tank and artillery fire in one of the buildings in the Vuhledar dachas (allegedly).
It appears that the Ukrainian attack came very close with soldiers reporting a… https://t.co/SWMGm2Cpve pic.twitter.com/l2nevUxJiR
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) March 14, 2023
Kharkiv and several other locations:
We had four nationwide air raid alerts today, and 12 in Kharkiv alone. Missile attack in Kramatorsk, 4 missiles targeting air defense in Odesa, recon drone in Dnipro. Russia attacks in waves, attempts to locate and exhaust Ukrainian air defense.
📷 Bus stop/shelter in Kharkiv pic.twitter.com/6ORzmoiPkp— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 14, 2023
Odesa:
Russian missile attack on Odesa region. Two Su-24 bombers launched four Kh-31 cruise missiles towards the coast. All four shot down over the Black Sea, debris and explosive wave damaged kindergarten. Each missile costs $550,000. pic.twitter.com/WJCcZoubuZ
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 14, 2023
ABC News reports that Russian fighters collided with a US drone and forced it down near Ukraine:
A Russian fighter jet collided with the rear propeller of an unmanned U.S. military drone over the international waters of the Black Sea on Tuesday morning, forcing the U.S. to bring the drone down off the coast of Ukraine, U.S. officials said.
The incident, which involved two Russian jets, was denounced as “unsafe and unprofessional” by the U.S. State Department. A spokesman called it a “brazen violation of international law” that led to the summoning of Russia’s ambassador for a diplomatic meeting in Washington.
Afterward, the ambassador, Anatoly Antonov, insisted that the Russian jets had not hit or fired on the drone.
The Russians claimed Tuesday that the drone was acting as an “intruder” and flying toward Russia’s borders.
U.S. European Command, or EUCOM, labeled the incident as “dangerous” and said in a statement that it could “lead to miscalculation and unintended escalation.”
A U.S. official was equally blunt — telling ABC News that the Russian pilot who hit the drone, seemingly unintentionally, was acting “reckless and juvenile.”
“At approximately 7:03 AM [local time], one of the Russian Su-27 aircraft struck the propeller of the MQ-9, causing U.S. forces to have to bring the MQ-9 down in international waters,” EUCOM said in its statement.
EUCOM said the incident “demonstrates a lack of competence in addition to being unsafe and unprofessional.”
“Several times before the collision, the Su-27s dumped fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 in a reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner,” EUCOM added.
The incident is apparently the latest in what EUCOM described as “a pattern of dangerous actions by Russian pilots while interacting with U.S. and Allied aircraft over international airspace, including over the Black Sea.”
“Our MQ-9 aircraft was conducting routine operations in international airspace when it was intercepted and hit by a Russian aircraft, resulting in a crash and complete loss of the MQ-9,” U.S. Air Force Gen. James B. Hecker, commander of the U.S. Air Forces in Europe and Africa, said in a statement. “In fact, this unsafe and unprofessional act by the Russians nearly caused both aircraft to crash.”
“U.S. and Allied aircraft will continue to operate in international airspace and we call on the Russians to conduct themselves professionally and safely,” Hecker added.
The unarmed MQ-9 drone had taken off from Romania and was flying at an altitude of 25,000 feet in international airspace southwest of Crimea with its transponder on when it was intercepted by the two Russian fighter jets, which were Su-27s, a U.S. Air Force official told ABC News.
Over a span of at least 30 minutes, the two jets executed 19 close passes by the drone, spraying some of their jet fuel on the craft during the last three or four of those passes, the official said.
The collision occurred on the last pass as one of the Su-27s approached the drone at a high rate of speed from behind, according to the official: As the jet pulled up, it collided with the MQ-9’s rear propeller.
One of the MQ-9’s propeller blades was bent in the collision and though there was a momentary loss of contact, controllers were able to glide the drone into the Black Sea “a fair distance” from where the collision had occurred.
“There’s no concern for sensitive information being obtained from the drone but the U.S. is looking at all options at this time as it considers next steps,” the U.S. official said.
The official described the collision as resulting from “the pure incompetence” of the Russian pilot whose actions were “flat-out dumb.”
More at the link!
That’s enough for tonight.
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The Moar You Know
What happens when the Russians decide to fuck around with a manned NATO aircraft?
Because they will escalate, seeing as how this stunt brought zero consequences.
Alison Rose
The emotion in Zelenskyy’s voice and face when talking about the chevrons was so palpable while still being subtle. It’s clear how much something like that means to him. That’s what happens when the leader of a country has an actual heart and an actual soul.
Also…he talked to Murdoch? Dang. And his blood didn’t turn to ice water during the conversation?
Looks like Maxwell Edison has a cousin in Ukraine.
Thank you as always, Adam.
bbleh
The drone incident is splashed all over the WaPo website and is above the fold on the NYT. One trusts the relevant deconfliction line was busy, but … wtf?
trollhattan
@bbleh: Top of BBC news site, two articles. They’re treating it very seriously.
Accounts of what occurred vary. A lot.
Anonymous At Work
The childishness and apparent impunity of the Russian pilots involved are striking. The idea of messing with (started to say the “de-monetizing word”) a US drone in international airspace because “What’s America going to do? Attack me?” is reckless escalation from an unprofessional trainee. Well, yes, next time there could be a response that includes that pilot being shot at or being actively targeted by radar or other responses that might make the child panic.
trollhattan
@Anonymous At Work:
Am reminded of this.
Fuck around and find out, Vlad.
Alison Rose
@trollhattan: The day putin finally shuffles off this mortal coil, I want BJ to raise funds to pay a helicopter to fly in circles over the Kremlin with someone yelling that phrase in Ukrainian through a bullhorn.
sdhays
I guess the incidents with the drones are happening too far away from Ukrainian territory for Ukraine to take advantage of the Russians’ unprofessional behavior?
It would be a shame if these guys goofing off got caught with their pants down when they find themselves under attack. And by “a shame”, I mean fitting.
Omnes Omnibus
@The Moar You Know:
What is your source for this assertion?
Chetan Murthy
@The Moar You Know: @Omnes Omnibus: IIRC, Russia has done this sort of shit before, flying dangerously close to American crewed aircraft on numerous occasions. No idea whether there were consequences, but I have to doubt they were significant.
Omnes Omnibus
@Chetan Murthy: They are saying that there are no consequences for an act that took place today. There may be no consequences, but it is a little too soon to make that categorical statement.
bbleh
@trollhattan: yes, and that plus the media splash suggests to me that somebody has decided to make this an Incident, which prompts the wtf?
(I do hope it wasn’t someone below political level — on either side — who thought it would be a clever idea.)
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam, look forward to your take on the WaPo article.
As I mentioned yesterday, given the complexities of the battlefield, it is quite possible that some Ukrainian units are suffering from poorly trained raw recruits, while other Ukrainian units are being trained in western Ukraine & NATO countries to be formed into brigades & corps for the spring offensive. Col. Gen. Syrskyi’s quotes in the article essentially stated as much. It is entirely possible that there has been a drop in Ukrainian enthusiasm to volunteer for military service, from the overwhelmingly high levels at the start of the invasion, while enthusiasm remains high overall. It is entirely possible that some Ukrainians are seeking to dodge draft papers, but also that they are relatively few. It is entirely possible that the TDFs made up of veterans from the 8 years of skirmishes in Donbass are more experienced (Jay has mentioned repeated this, presumably from his contact serving on the front) than the raw recruits that have gone into some of the regular Ukrainian formations.
The numbers that are of potential concerns is the ~ 120K Ukrainian casualties vs. the ~ 200K Russian casualties, that is not a favorable exchange ratio overall for Ukraine. What we do not know is the exchange ratios at different points in time (are the ratios much more favorable to Ukraine in recent months?). We also don’t know if the two figures are apples to apples. Are the wounded among the estimated casualties severe enough that they cannot return to the line? In general, most of the wounded should be able to recover & return, less so for the Russian side (especially the Wagner fodder). OTOH, both figures seems low if they include the lightly wounded.
The heavy losses among junior officers is also concerning. The article did not discuss NCO specifically, but if there has been heavy losses among junior officers, there has likely been heavy losses among NCOs. Both are not so easy to replace, at least not at equal quality.
As for the Ukrainian reserves being husbanded & trained by NATO, the question is how well they are being equipped. Realized donation of heavy weapons from NATO countries, especially armored & mechanized vehicles, are far too small & far too slow. The Ukrainian Army will have to continue to rely upon their own refurbished gear, or those captured from the Russians. On the other side of the coin, we don’t know if there will be lightly defended sections of the Russian line that the Ukrainian Armed Forces can exploit, as they did in Kharkiv.
Greg
I sometimes wonder what the soldiers of past wars would have posted to social media. The 101st at Bastogne, the opposing sides at Waterloo. The guys on Corrigedor. Pick a war, and battle.
“Ours is not to reason why…”
LiminalOwl
Timothy Snyder gave a briefing today on Russians’ Playing the Victim.
(I think it was from someone here that I learned of Snyder’s On Tyranny? Thank you, whoever you are.)
Omnes Omnibus
@Greg:
A lot of them would have bitched about something.
Jay
for those interested, a searchable database of Companies and Corporations in relation to what they are doing in regard to their operations in Russia.
https://www.coalitionforukraine.com/canada
Aussie Sheila
@Alison Rose: I am glad he talked to Murdoch. I am trying to fire up a campaign in Oz against Murdoch. Not much I can do now. Once I could have initiated resolutions that would reach people with power, but now, not so much!
Such is being retired. However, Australian print media is 75% owned by Murdoch, and a concerted campaign against him here would help in diminishing his baleful media presence. It might also generate some publicity in the US and UK.
That man has done more damage to English speaking democracies than any other single individual. I despise him so much it hurts.
zhena gogolia
@LiminalOwl: That is very good, thanks.
Manyakitty
@Aussie Sheila: that testimony where he says he doesn’t care about red or blue, he only cares about green (paraphrase) is among the most nauseating things I have ever heard.
Wombat Probability Cloud
@LiminalOwl: It may have been me (or not) because I recall mentioning it here. I’ve been working my way through Bloodlands, but the amount of detail and visceral brutality makes for slow reading and emotional absorption. Seemed to me that On Tyranny was a more accessible and more general primer to the subject.
Aussie Sheila
@Manyakitty: Yes. He is widely despised here by everyone. I know local journos follow pretty closely what his media properties do overseas, but the problem is that there are so few avenues for employment for journos here, that if you get a reputation for ripping into him and his properties here, you have lost a big chunk of future employment.
Retired journos regularly get into him, and there are a few online independent media outlets, but his grip on the print press, particularly the tabloid media make it hard for working journos.
smith
Are those casualty numbers out of line with what has been estimated from other sources? We don’t know how many of the “casualties” are wounded and how many represent deaths — most of the estimates I’ve seen from other sources have focused on deaths alone, as Ukraine does when providing their estimates of Russian losses. There appears to be some conventional wisdom that generally you can expect 3 wounded for each soldier killed (although I’m sure this varies widely according to specific circumstances). Using a 3:1 ratio for those numbers in the Wapo article, you get 30,000 KIA for Ukraine and 50,000 for Russia. These death estimates are actually lower than ones I’ve seen from other sources in the last couple of months.
There is also reason to suspect that the wounded to killed ratio is not the same for the two sides. As far as we know from battlefield reports, the Russian human wave attacks result in remarkably high death rates, and Russians are apparently not particularly diligent in recovering their wounded from the battlefield. Both of these factors probably have shifted that ratio downward for the Russians. If true, that means the Russia has taken an even harder hit compared to Ukraine than these overall casualty estimates suggest.
Finally, as you say, the impact of these casualty figures is obscured, because we don’t know how many of the casualties have been put permanently out of action. On the one hand, Ukraine’s more immediate attention to evacuating and caring for their wounded might result in better outcomes; on the other hand, it may be that Russia only evacuates the lightly wounded who can be sent back into battle after some recuperation. It seems that there’s no easy way to draw any firm conclusions from general casualty estimates
ETA: Replying to YY_Sima Qian
LiminalOwl
@Wombat Probability Cloud: I’m not sure, but thank you. I did mark Bloodlands for future reading but haven’t followed up because, well, what you said.
@zhena gogolia: You’re welcome! Glad you liked it.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
UA TDF’s are “like” US National Guard units, and also not like US National Guard units.
They are closer to Canadian Militia Units, in that they are all volenteer units, but because of the war, they are different. Some are ex-military reservists, some weekend warriors, some people who just grabbed molotov cocktails and took to the streets during the RU’s attempted “Thunder Run”. Some have been active since Maiden, some since 2022. Some were part of the “independent” units that sprung up after the first Russian invasion. They vary greatly in skills, but not in morale.
A key thing to keep in mind, soldiers “complain”, all the time.
Jay
@LiminalOwl:
“Bloodlands” is well worth reading. Yeah, it’s hard reading, but it’s well worth reading. When we left Kamloops, I had to leave a ton of books behind, but “Bloodlands” came with me.
Chetan Murthy
@Wombat Probability Cloud: Gellately’s Backing Hitler was like that, too. Detailed investigations and explanations of things like the death rates at the Flossenburg concentration camp (the death camps were of course murder factories, but the run-of-the-mill concentration camps also murdered at prodigious rates), all sorts of crazy numbers. I think it’s b/c as a historian, he wants to (has to) adduce *proof* for statements he makes, and that proof is necessarily going to consist in numbers and their backing documentation.
Which …. makes it heavy going. Reading about [I will elide the example, b/c wow, awful] is …. heavy going, and then reading about N different examples like that, even moreso. And then the rollups into statistics …. *ugh*.
Prescott Cactus
@Jay:
There are varying degrees of participation or collaboration with Russian economy. Please check the list before you run into the streets shouting their names !
That said: As of March 14, they are tracking 1217 companies, of which 893 are pulling out of Russia, and 324 holdouts
Names I recognized of holdouts;
Abbott Laboratories JDE Peet’s Coffee
Alibaba Johnson & Johnson
Amgen Keurig Dr Pepper
AstraZeneca KFC (Yum Brands)
Bayer AG Koch Industries
Cargill Krispy Kreme
Chevron Lacoste
Delonghi Lenovo
Discord Marriott
Domino’s Pizza Mars – M&M’s + Snickers
DJI Drones Mazda
Ecolab (Nalco Water) Medtronic
Emirates Airlines Merck
Focus Brands – Cinnabon, Auntie Anne’s and Carvel.
HILTI Mondelez International – Oreo’s / snacks
Hilton Oshkosh (Carter’s) – B’goshes
HSBC Phibro Animal Health Corp
Huawei Pirelli Tyre
Hyatt PPG Industries
Ingersoll Rand Procter & Gamble
Qatar Airways Radisson
Redbull Riot Games
SC Johnson Schlumberger
Silicon Valley Bank (ha) Stryker Ortho
Subway Tencent
Tenneco Teradata
Tesla (of course) ThyssenKrupp – elevators
Toshiba Group Trivago
Turkish Airlines Unilever
Yokohama
Aziz, light!
Can we bill the fucking Russians for the $30 million Reaper?
Just think what Ukraine could do with a few of those suckers, which Biden has declined to give them.
frosty
@Jay: Bloodlands was the first of Snyder’s books that I’ve read. Tying together Stalin’s starvation and Hitler’s murders with the geography where it all took place was a new and brilliant way to look at the history of the 20th Century, IMHO.
lashonharangue
@frosty: I found Snyder’s Yale class on Ukraine easier to follow having first read Bloodlands. Seeing WWII as an imperial war for both Hitler and Stalin makes a lot of sense to me. Apparently neither of them thought France and Britain would go to war over the partition of Poland.
YY_Sima Qian
I think the air collision is an accident. It’s not clear the damage to the Su-27, but in general trading a manned front line jet fighter for an unmanned drone is not a favorable exchange. Still, the Russians have a history of making extraordinarily risky maneuvers in their intercepts of aircrafts & vessels.
Of course, NATO pilots had also engaged in what might be deemed dangerous or aggressive maneuvers against Russian surveillance flights, & Chinese pilots do the same in the East & South China Sea. Russians just seem to push the envelop much closer to the edge when it comes to flight maneuvers, where as Chinese pilots stopped taking such risks after the Spy Plane Incidence of 2001. Of course, Chinese planes & ships can be quite aggressive & threatening in these intercepts, such as dumping chaff into the flight path of an Australian surveillance plane that is sucked into the engines (causing loud pops, shining laser pens at the cockpit of a Canadian surveillance plane, attempting to cut the deployed tow array sonars from American oceanographic research/spy ships, capturing unmanned undersea vehicles soon after they were launched from American ships, seizing debris from Chinese rockets (after launch) from Filipino ships that had captured them.
Robert Hopkins, a former RC-135 pilot, has a good Twitter thread that contextualizes such intercepts through Cold War & post-Cold War history, though it was written after a Chinese intercept of USAF surveillance plane in the South China Sea that the DOD claimed to be “unsafe”. Here is his take on the MQ-9 collision, & the Twitter thread by Dara Massicot at RAND that he referred to.
YY_Sima Qian
@smith: Yeah, hard to get much of a read just from the WaPo article. However, I think this is the 1st time a western MSM has published estimates of Ukrainian losses, w/ sources from NATO. The other guesstimates I have seen are more like Twitter speculation. Still not dispositive to authoritative by any means.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Soldiers absolutely complain, but I am struck by some of the information included in article. Beyond the casualty estimates, the case of “Kupol’s” battalion is distressing. Having 100% turn over in his unit of 500 men through the course of the war is staggering. Perhaps not surprising, given the intensity of the combat so far, & we know several of Russian brigades that have been destroyed & reformed more than once. What is concerning is that meant his battalions has lost almost all of the officers & NCOs, too. Combined w/ the quotes about the heavy losses among junior officers from Ukrainian officials, it’s a fairly grim picture. & this is a battalion in an Ukrainian air assault brigade, which should be among the better quality formations in the Ukrainian Army. “Dmytro”, the other quoted soldier (sounds like an NCO) in the article, is from a marine brigade, which also should be among the better quality formations.
Still, that is just 2 units, & it is not above WaPo reporters to highlight only the worst hit units among those they might have contacted.
Medicine Man
Regarding the casualty numbers reported by Wapo recently, here is Malcolm Nance’s rebuttal: https://twitter.com/MalcolmNance/status/1635625524029542402
The TLDR – His guesstimate – based on his experiences in theatre – is AFU’s casualty numbers are near 17k, with a 10-1 reported injured numbers because of how their medical system operates. His experience is 90% of WIA are back in action in 2-3 weeks.
YY_Sima Qian
@Prescott Cactus: I don’t think any Chinese companies have left Russia, there are several on your list. In fact, Chinese consumer electronics & automobile companies have essentially taken over the Russian market, filling in the vacuum left by the western companies that had exited.
Liyly
Just hope the war stops soon. But a new round of financial warfare seems imminent.medals
RAM
Maybe time to put a hefty self-destruct charge aboard those unarmed drones so that the next one they hit could take out the hitter…
Chetan Murthy
Navalny, what a hero! [there’s an image w/statement from his chief-of-staff Volkov]
charon
@Prescott Cactus:
I can kind of sympathize with companies like Medtronic.
For example, Type 1 diabetics on insulin pumps do require ongoing technical support.