(Image by NEIVANMADE)
FRIDAY!!!!! I’m feeling all of the long week. So just a quick update and then I’m to bed!
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
International Criminal Court issues warrant of arrest for Putin; the historic decision, from which historical responsibility will begin – address of President of Ukraine
17 March 2023 – 20:26
Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!
Today, we have a fundamental decision of international justice. In a case which has a true prospect. The International Criminal Court issued a warrant of arrest for Putin.
The historic decision, from which historical responsibility will begin.
The head of the terrorist state and another Russian official have officially become suspects in a war crime. The deportation of Ukrainian children – the illegal transfer of thousands of our children to the territory of the terrorist state.
Over 16,000 cases of forced deportation of Ukrainian children by the occupier have already been recorded in criminal proceedings investigated by our law enforcement officers.
But the real, full number of deportees may be much higher.
It would be impossible to commit such a criminal operation without the order of the top leader of the terrorist state.
Separating children from their families, depriving them of any opportunity to contact their relatives, hiding children on the territory of Russia, throw them in remote regions – all this is an obvious state policy of Russia, state decisions and state evil. Which begins precisely with the top official of this state.
I am grateful to the team of Prosecutor Karim Khan and the International Criminal Court, everyone in the world who is helping us in the fight for justice. I am grateful for integrity and willingness to really bring to justice those who are guilty.
So far, it has been possible to return a little more than 300 children from all those who were taken away by force, stolen from Ukraine. It is obvious that we have to return everyone.
It is obvious that we will continue doing everything for this. For returning every Ukrainian, every Ukrainian woman, every our child. And for the real responsibility of all those responsible for this deportation – from the head of the terrorist state to all the executors.
I held a meeting of the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief today. The main focus is on the battles in Donbas: Avdiyivka, Bakhmut, Vuhledar, Maryinka, Bilohorivka.
The main focus is on our soldiers, how to support our brigades, how to give them more strength, opportunities, more weapons and protection.
As always, the Commander-in-Chief, intelligence, task force commanders reported. The commander of Khortytsia group General Syrsky, the commander of Tavria group General Tarnavsky. It is these groups that operate in Donbas.
And I thank every soldier, every sergeant, every officer – everyone who acts on the front line, everyone who maintains a real defense with their endurance and courage. Thank you for resilience, for strength and for the fact that the state sees a prospect for our defense operations, for further active actions.
Today, I would like to pay particular attention to the fighters of our special units.
Special Operations Forces – 8th Separate Special Forces Regiment, thank you guys for the filigree destruction of the enemy near Bakhmut and the powerful reinforcement of our defenses in this direction, in Bakhmut.
Thank you to all our Special Operations Forces fighters who defend Luhansk region.
Special gratitude goes to our Navy SEALs, the Naval Special Purpose Center, for the successful actions in the south, for the tangible losses of the enemy near Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, for the powerful response we give to the occupier to its attacks on our forces and cities.
Thank you to the soldiers of the Security Service of Ukraine. To all our defenders from the Alpha unit, in particular from the White Wolf and Kusto groups. The 13th Directorate of SSU Military Counterintelligence – thank you all!
Thank you to the soldiers of the Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense – every soldier, every unit. I thank the soldiers of our International Legion, all who feel the need to fight for freedom in the same way that Ukrainians feel this need.
I spoke today with the Prime Minister of Slovakia. I thanked him for the new and strong defense support package. In particular, for MiG fighters, which will fly for the security of Ukraine and the whole of Europe. We agreed to continue our security dialogue – in Ukraine.
And, by the way, we are already working on the next weeks’ tasks – the time that we will use to strengthen Ukraine, to supply new weapons to our soldiers and to speed up the punishment – the punishment of Russia for this war.
Glory to all who are now fighting for Ukraine!
Glory to everyone who helps us protect our people!
Glory to Ukraine!
Every criminal must be held accountable, especially when a top official is involved in the deportation of children.
We’ve been flagging russian war crimes for a long time.
The arrest warrants for the ugly duo are just the beginning. The tribunal, verdicts&punishments are coming. pic.twitter.com/st8T4Qs5FJ— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) March 17, 2023
Here is some #NAFO art for your Friday night.
Time for some Guinness ☘️ ☘️ ☘️#HappyStPatricksDay pic.twitter.com/pezgMOGAEf— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 17, 2023
Just to be clear, that’s Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov between Defense Minister Shoigu and Putin, not former Secretary of Defense Hagel.
Here is the most recent operational update, machine translated, from the Ukrainian MOD’s Telegram channel:
And here is a machine translated statement from the Land Force Component Commander Colonel General Syrskyi:
A little public diplomacy from the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs:
This is going to become one of my favourite soundbites from any foreign minister I have interviewed. I asked @DmytroKuleba what was behind the creative diplomacy Ukraine had shown during the war: pic.twitter.com/a1RlMzgp5e
— James Landale (@BBCJLandale) March 17, 2023
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Bakhmut – newest first:
BAKHMUT CITY TACMAP /2240 UTC 17 MAR/ Urban fighting continues. The line of contact in the north sector of the city conforms with the rail right-of-way. In the south, RU forces are attempting to close the gap between the H-32 and T-05-13 HWYs. #BakhmutMap pic.twitter.com/fGj1oEqdS6
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 17, 2023
BAKMUT AXIS/1320 UTC 17 MAR/RU maintains important lodgments in the SW urban area of Bakhmut. UKR troops hold defense positions along the rail right-of-way, the H-32 HWY and Korsunskogo Street southern urban area. //Urban TACMAP to follow.// #BakhmutMap pic.twitter.com/pe9GemwG2y
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 17, 2023
Bakhmut:
A late posted video update from Kyianyn:
Quick update from fired up Kyianyn – 16 March. pic.twitter.com/1jKm09Ud1i
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) March 16, 2023
Chasiv Yar:
Fighters of the 71st Jaeger Brigade defend the city of Chasiv Yar in the Donbas, preventing Russians from cutting the supply line to Bakhmut.
One of the heroes here is the commander of the special purpose group Petro, callsign "Kharkiv", who went to his position immediately… https://t.co/DmfichfUN8 pic.twitter.com/xTODL3POIz
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) March 17, 2023
Avdiivka:
Avdiivka, Donetsk region.
The result of four russian air strikes today.#russiaisaterroriststate📷 Office of the President of Ukraine pic.twitter.com/18VPw7GwXb
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 17, 2023
Eastern, southern, northern, and parts of central Ukraine:
Ukraine under Shahed attack these minutes. Russia is possibly preparing for the next missile attack and uses drones to detect air defense. pic.twitter.com/0Ma6y2GM07
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 17, 2023
For those who are curious, and I apologize for not posting it sooner, here is the link to the air raid alert map of Ukraine.
The Slovak Republic:
#Slovak gov. just approved sending 13 #MiG29s to #Ukraine! Promises must be kept&when @ZelenskyyUa asked for more #weapons incl. fighter jets, I said we’ll do our best. Glad others’re doing the same. #Military aid’s🔑to ensure🇺🇦can defend itself&the entire #Europe against #Russia
— Eduard Heger (@eduardheger) March 17, 2023
Our hearts w/Ukraine. Our jets for Ukraine. 🇸🇰🤝🇺🇦 #Slovakia is to donate 13 MiG-29 jets (and SA-6 air def system) to #Ukraine. Agreement signed ✅@UKRinSR @DefenceU @MyroslavKastran @oleksiireznikov @Slovakia_NATO @USEmbassySK @ZelenskyyUa pic.twitter.com/f0obiLsl2R
— Jaro Nad (@JaroNad) March 17, 2023
Ukrainian angels from @KpsZSU are ready to protect good and punish evil. But they need wings.
MiG-29 jets + Kub air defense system from 🇸🇰 will help us defend our skies effectively.
Thank you to @eduardheger @JaroNad and the 🇸🇰 people.
Aircraft coalition is assembling! pic.twitter.com/15A9GhuO42— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) March 17, 2023
That’s enough for tonight. Provided I’m feeling rested and refreshed, I’ll get to some of the longer stuff tomorrow night.
Your daily Patron!
Today I just want to listen to the songs of Lady GAAGA. Don’t know why 😏
— Patron (@PatronDsns) March 17, 2023
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns Який ваш улюблений?😁 #песпатрон
Here is the machine translation of the caption:
Which is your favorite? 😁 #песпатрон
Open thread!
zhena gogolia
Clear to everybody that Gaaga is The Hague?
Spanky
Any day we’re talking about arrest warrants for both Putin and Trump is a good day.
Ksmiami
Russia is a worthless country … I hope it gets dismantled
Tom Levenson
@zhena gogolia: Wasn’t to me. Now it is.
Thanks.
Steeplejack
@zhena gogolia:
Not to me. Thanks!
zhena gogolia
@Steeplejack: Seems to come up these days in Russian-language conversations, and I assume it’s the same in Ukrainian.
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
She’s come a long way since Poker Face.
zhena gogolia
@Baud: I hope she has one of them purple robes.
Gin & Tonic
@zhena gogolia: It is, modulo the usual Г/Ґ issue.
zhena gogolia
@Gin & Tonic: Yes, I don’t know how to explain that.
Alison Rose
Seeing that number, and knowing it may even be higher, is absolutely bone-chilling. Even if the ICC move doesn’t actually mean goons show up at the kremlin and drag putin’s sorry ass to court, I’m glad they did it because this has to be the most repugnant and cruel thing I’ve ever seen.
Kuleba is so great. In addition to Zelenskyy, he’s someone I’d love to meet and shake hands with if I were able to do such a thing. I love how soft-spoken yet clear and stentorian he is.
I also love “Our hearts with Ukraine, our jets for Ukraine”. Saint Javelin oughta put that on a shirt!
Thank you as always, Adam. Get some rest!
Alison Rose
@zhena gogolia: I also was unaware and thank you for the explanation. I thought it was some kind of weapon acronym :P
NotoriousJRT
@zhena gogolia: It was not to me. I thank you.
Alison Rose
Quick video about the different types of jets that have been discussed for Ukraine, and the pros and cons of each. It’s all above my pay grade, but it helped me understand the differences better. Of course, I’m still just like “give them whatever they ask for” because that’s me.
NotoriousJRT
I have to say that I was glad to see that Maria Lvova-Belova was part of the ICC’s actions. She is under-reported and unadulterated evil.
Anonymous At Work
Putin’s indictment by The Hague: tip of spear or “can we have a cookie?” Are we going to see more coming now that they decided that what Russia’s doing, recording, broadcasting, and boasting about are all war crimes, or is the ICC going to balk at issuing more arrest warrants?
Anonymous At Work
Question about Israel’s sale of defensive electronics to Ukraine: Is it about Iran or about trying to build some goodwill given the violently-corrupt, right-wing government trashing its democracy?
YY_Sima Qian
@Alison Rose: Zelenskyy’s & Kuleba’s adroit diplomacy has been impressive, particularly when it comes to dealing w/ the “straddles”. They have been laser focused on maximizing Ukraine’s national interest as their 1st & only objective, & avoiding posturing or grandstanding when it would have been so easy, even justified, to do so. This level of cool headed was is not as common as one would hope, even among leaders of major powers.
japa21
There are only two places I look at regularly for news on Ukraine, Adam and KOS. One thing they both have in common is total distrust of ISW. The other thing is they are both thorough.
Today there is some speculation, based upon a significant slowing of Russian attacks (not stoppage) that Russian may be at a point where they have limited ability to sustain anything. And the question is, if that is so, how can Ukraine take advantage of that. As I mentioned, purely speculation ad not saying Russia doesn’t have the ability to hurt Ukraine, but what wonders just what capacity they have on hand right now.
Jay
@japa21:
Slava sent me a text today, a photo of an empty Werther’s wrapper with a backdrop. He, his crew, and their Leopard II are in Ukraine.
One of the Rashidist bloggers was whinging today about a UF counterattack in Polohy, where the UA forces pounded the Rachists with armour right at the front lines, showing that while the Rachists drown in the mud, Ukrainian’s dont.
Alison Rose
@YY_Sima Qian: Agree. A lot of world leaders could learn a lot of things from them.
Jay
Carlo Graziani
@Jay: Google Maps lists 6 Polohys in Ukraine. Which one is Slava referring to?
Lyrebird
@Jay: lots of commenters to that saying it’s fake, fwiw.
Thanks so much for your news of your friend!
Slava Slava!
Carlo Graziani
@Carlo Graziani: Never mind, Polohy in Zaporizhzhia Oblast is the only one that makes sense. Leopards on the Zaporizhzhia front already, that’s very interesting.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
@Lyrebird:
you guys are misreading. Slava sent me a pre-arranged text to let me know when his group had finished training on the first batch of Canadian Leopard II’s, (2nd batch shipped out today, from Edmonton), and had arrived in Ukraine.
the second part was about a Rachist genocide supporting warblogger embedded with the RU forces complaining that the UA seems to have no problems with the mud, while they do.
Leopard II’s arn’t on the frontline yet, they are still being arranged into mixed Brigaides, still about a month or two away from the frontline, but if the first group of Canadian Leopard II’s have arrived, the German ones are there, and the first of the Challenger II’s will be there next week.
Traveller
I have a military question that has been troubling me for a while…and I am supposing that the bright minds here might educate me a little.
I thought our Counter Battery Fire Was Better…..it does not seem to be showing up or being effective on the Bakhmut battle space. (I confess I know nothing about Artillery, but I will be asking what is going on in these regards).
When the French Caesars were being given over to Ukrainian forces,when the US was sending and bragging about the M777 Howitzer and how rapid fire these systems were and, linked with fire detecting radar, all the western artillery was great and would be even more substantial due to their ability to do precise counter battery fire.
But this does not seem to be the case…(unless I am just wrong in over estimating our counter battery radar).
Ukrainian infantrymen interviewed by the Kyiv Independent described the fighting in Bakhmut as a desperate survival challenge against Russia’s “infinite” stocks of artillery munitions and manpower. With just their machine guns and rifles, they say they braced relentless Russian mortar and artillery attacks until their hideout was eventually destroyed.
…
Valeriy, a Ukrainian infantryman, says that most of his fallen comrades were fatally wounded by projectile fragments.
“It’s a pity that probably 90% of our losses are from artillery – or tanks and aviation
It is simply possible that the Russians have a gazillion artillery pieces and so our counter battery fire will always be behind…or, because counter battery radar is fairly easily detected, it is being taken out by Russian fire?
It is all a puzzlement to me.
Carlo Graziani
@Jay: Gotcha.
Carlo Graziani
@Traveller: It’s a perceptive question, and a puzzle to me too. I think that the answer may have to do with the fact that while entrenched infantry enduring artillery strikes imagines an enemy endowed with an infinite supply of shells, we know that this is not true for either side. On the Ukrainian side, 155mm shells for NATO-supplied barrels are notoriously in short supply, and subject to supply-chain constraints that are being slowly attacked, but cannot be expected to resolve soon. On the Russian side, the supply of shells is utterly inadequate for the current 4+-mutually-non-supporting fronts, which is why Wagner’s supply priority has been downgraded to the point that Prigozhin rants publicly about MOD trying to cripple his Bakhmut effort, and why the overall rate of Russian shell expenditure has dropped steadily since last fall.
Both sides are experiencing ammo starvation. It affects different theatres in different ways. But it certainly constrains Ukrainian counterbattery work if every shell need be weighed for the value of a current target compared to the amortized value of a future target.
Jay
@Traveller:
reports are that RU arty in theatre outnumbers UA arty 10:1. Russian shelling is reported to be 8:1 compared to UA shelling.
Current word is that while the Ukraine’s partners have doubled their shell production, ( still not enough),
The RU is sending forward too ancient shells and defects from the production lines.
Keep in mind that in both WWI and WWII, there was The Quiet Months, periods where both sides had run out of shells, and it took almost a year to catch up to the first years of shelling.
Orxy has documented visually confirmed losses since the current Russian Invasion.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/10/how-is-russia-faring-against-nato.html
While we have sent some of out best arty systems to Ukraine, we havn’t sent our best shells or matching systems, and what we have sent are a drop in the bucket compared to what Russia has.
Another Scott
For those who missed it…
(via nycsouthpaw)
Cheers,
Scott.
patrick II
@Carlo Graziani:
@Traveller:
I am another person who knows very little about army tactics, so take my speculation for what it is worth.
The RA and particularly the Wagner group sends in conscripts and prisoners first to draw out UK artillery in support of their troops. RA then fires at UK artillery aided by their own counter-battery techniques. In the meantime, the UK must move after their first salvo or get pounded by the Russians, and by the time they set up again, the Russians have moved. The Russians force the Ukrainians first move and keep the advantage thereafter.
Just speculation on my part.
Hangö Kex
@Traveller: I guess a simple remedy to counter-battery-radar is shoot-and-scoot (which I’d assume the Russians are capable of doing), also the radar units would have to do some of the same, making them less effective (?).
Thanks to Adam, as always.
Hangö Kex
Also, progress on Finland joining NATO: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64986744 (shamefully, Sweden is still being held back, but I suppose just Finland getting in would de-facto help them too).
Geminid
@Anonymous At Work: A Times of Israel article about the sale of electronic anti-drone systems to Ukraine gave one possible reason: the Israelis want to test them in battlegield conditions. The article also noted that the US keeps pressing Israel to help Ukraine in the area of weaponry.
The system in question sounds like it is intended to down drones at a distance of up to 25 kilometers, through electronic means. Ukraine already has similar systems, but the Israeli weapon might be an improvement qualitatively. It certainly will add to Ukraine’s defenses in a quantitative sense
TheTOI article noted that while the export license was approved last month, the announcement came after a high level meeting of Israeli security officials chaired by PM Netanyahu, where the question of military aid to Ukraine was discussed. The meeting may have been in response to recent visits to Moscow by Syrian military leaders, and the deepening cooperation between Russia and Iran.
Geminid
@Hangö Kex: This week the Swedish Prime Minister said he hopes Turkiye will sign off on his country’s NATO membership after the Turkish general election in May. This action is widely expected by observers and governments.
Since Sweden is very unlikely to extradite Kurdish refugees as Turkish President Erdogan demands, observers believe he will instead accept Swedish assurances regarding a crackdown on emigre funding for the PKK. This resistance group has waged an on-again, off-again armed struggle with Turkiye’s government for decades.
The Turkish opposition’s Presidential candidate, Mr. Kilicdaroglu, has said he will ratify NATO membership for Finland and Sweden if he is elected. The election will be held May 14.
Geminid
@Geminid: Other factors conditioning Israel’s posture towards Ukraine include a desire for Ukraine’s support in the UN, as well as Israel”s interests in good relations with Ukraine generally. The two nations had good economic and political ties before this war began, and Israel hopes they resume once this war is over.
Geminid
@Hangö Kex: Sweden will still be able to help Finland with its substantial military forces whether or not it is a NATO member. NATO membership would facilitate Swedish military support for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, though. Those three NATO members are the ones most vulnerable to Russian aggression.
Geminid
@Hangö Kex: Sweden will still be able to help Finland with its substantial military forces whether or not it is a NATO member. NATO membership would facilitate Swedish military support for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, though. Those three NATO members are the ones most vulnerable to Russian aggression.
Geminid
@Geminid: Duped again, darnit!
I would add that I expect Turkiye will ratify Sweden’s NATO membership this year, whether or not President Erdogan is reelected. This would align with Turkiye’s long term interests, as Russia has historically been Turkiye’s most dangerous adversary.