Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Giving in to doom is how authoritarians win.

I did not have this on my fuck 2025 bingo card.

Innocent people do not delay justice.

It’s a good piece. click on over. but then come back!!

Jack be nimble, jack be quick, hurry up and indict this prick.

If you voted for Trump, you don’t get to speak about ethics, morals, or rule of law.

My years-long effort to drive family and friends away has really paid off this year.

“Facilitate” is an active verb, not a weasel word.

The republican ‘Pastor’ of the House is an odious authoritarian little creep.

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

Weird. Rome has an American Pope and America has a Russian President.

Today in our ongoing national embarrassment…

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

Fundamental belief of white supremacy: white people are presumed innocent, minorities are presumed guilty.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

All hail the time of the bunny!

Let the trolls come, and then ignore them. that’s the worst thing you can do to a troll.

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

Not rolling over. fuck you, make me.

Narcissists are always shocked to discover other people have agency.

The current Supreme Court is a dangerous, rogue court.

“Loving your country does not mean lying about its history.”

If you are still in the gop, you are either an extremist yourself, or in bed with those who are.

This really is a full service blog.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 388: The Security Service of Ukraine Is on the Hunt!

War for Ukraine Day 388: The Security Service of Ukraine Is on the Hunt!

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(Crest of the Security Service of Ukraine)

The Security Service of Ukraine went hunting overnight.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

When Ukraine defends itself, when the power of justice are restored on our land, it will guarantee peace for many other parts of the world as well – address of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

18 March 2023 – 21:24

Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!

There are new NSDC sanctions. More than 400 individuals and companies. Most of them are Russian. It is the defense industry of the terrorist state. But these are also Iranian, and Syrian individuals, those who help terror.

We study in depth each of our sanctioning steps. Ukrainian sanctions are part of global pressure on Russia. All those who produce weapons for terror against Ukraine, who help Russia incite aggression, in particular by supplying Shahed drones, who support Russia’s destruction of international law, can only be marginals for the world. Those who will eventually be held accountable for everything they do against our people, against people in general, against international law.

And this, by the way, will concern not only terror against Ukrainians, not only attempts to annex our land, starting with Crimea, but also other Russian aggressions against the international order, against normal, peaceful human life. In particular, on the territory of Syria. The people of Syria have not received adequate international protection, and this has given the Kremlin and its accomplices a sense of impunity. Russian bombs destroyed the cities of Syria in the same way as our Ukrainian cities. This impunity is a significant part of the Kremlin’s current aggressiveness.

When the Ukrainian people defend themselves, when the power of the UN Charter and the power of justice are restored on our land, this will guarantee peace for many other parts of the world as well. It is what our global coalition, the anti-war coalition, works for.

This week brought good weapon results for our resistance to Russian aggression. Another Ramstein meeting was held.

There are new defense packages from our friends: Canada, Germany, France, Denmark, Estonia. They concern ammunition and accouterments, tanks and artillery. There is a much-needed solution to the Archer systems – Sweden, thank you very much. The decision on MiG fighters – Slovakia, thank you very much. Poland, Lithuania, the UK, the European Union, the United States, and many others continue to provide powerful assistance.

I’m thankful to all our partners!

A talk between Ukraine and the United States in an expanded defense format took place. The Minister of Defense, the Commander-in-Chief, the commanders of operational strategic groups – they are Generals Syrsky and Tarnavsky, the commander of the Air Force, and the head of the Office participated from the side of Ukraine. I joined this conversation. Our goal is obvious – it is strengthening our soldiers, new solutions for Ukraine to be able to take active actions and protect itself from Russian terror, to restore real security.

These decisions will be made.

There is only one subject that destroys life, and that is Russia. There is only one way to protect life – it is necessary to expel the Russian army from Ukrainian land. And we will do it.

I thank all our soldiers of the Air Force, all our pilots, and anti-aircraft fighters who shoot down killer drones and missiles!

I thank each unit of our defense and security forces, which responds to the occupier’s attacks on our cities. Dnipropetrovsk region, Kharkiv region, Donetsk region, Luhansk region, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy region, and Chernihiv region – for each of our regions suffering from Russian terror, the occupier will tangibly pay with its losses.

I will once again mention our soldiers in Donetsk region, those who cause the losses to the enemy the most. Marines of the 35th and 36th separate brigades, fighters of the 79th separate air assault brigade, soldiers of the 11th border guard detachment, the 55th separate artillery brigade, the 72nd separate mechanized brigade, and the 74th separate reconnaissance battalion… I’m thankful to you, warriors!

I especially thank everyone who defends Bakhmut every day.

The battles right there, exactly in these parts of Donbas – Vuhledar, Bakhmut, Maryinka, Belohorivka, Avdiyivka, Kamianka – make it possible to return security to Ukraine, to all of Europe, to every nation that values its freedom and the integrity of its land.

Glory to all our soldiers who are now in battle!

Glory to everyone who helps!

Thank you to everyone who trains our soldiers, who treats injuries, who volunteers, and who supports the fighting spirit of Ukrainians!

Glory to all of you!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here’s today’s operational update, as a machine translation, from Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense’s Telegram Channel:

Ministry of Defense of Ukraine✔
!!️Operational information as of 18.00 18.03.2023 regarding the Russian invasion

Russian Federation continues to lead offensive operations in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiyevsky, Mariinsky and Shakhtar directions. Bakhmut remains the epicenter of hostilities.

▪️During the day the enemy caused 5 missile strikes, 4 of them – on the objects of civilian infrastructure of the city of Zaporizhia. The enemy also struck 12 air strikes and fired more than 20 from volley jet fire systems.

▪️In the Kupiansky and Lyman directions, the enemy continues to try to break through the defenses of our troops. He led unsuccessful offensive actions in the settlements of Dibrov, Upper Kamen and Spirne. Carried out artillery shelling in the settlements of Putnikove, Krasne First, Dvorichna, Hryanovyk, Kupyansk, Krokhmal and Berestov region of Kharkiv; Novoselivsky, Nevsky and Beloglyavka – Luhansk, as well as Spirne and Fedorovka in Donetsk.

▪️In the Bakhmut direction the enemy does not stop trying to capture the city of Bakhmut. Our defenders reflected enemy attacks in the settlements of Orykhovo-Vasilivka, Grigorivka and in northern part Bakhmuta. Enemy shelling was carried out, in particular, Vasyukivka, Rakhnyanske, Orykhovo-Vasylivka, Grigorivka, Bakhmut, Ivanovske, Chasiv Yar, Kurdyumivka, Ozaryanovka and the Northern Donetsk region.

▪️In the Avdiivsky, Mariinsky and Shakhtar directions the enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the settlements of Kamyanka, Severne, Pervomaiske and Mariinka. Kamyanka, Lastochkine, Avdiyivka, Tonenke, Georgiivka, Nevel, Mariinka, Vugledar and Velyka Novosylka, Donetsk region, came under fire.

▪️The Russian occupiers continue to use civilian institutions in the temporarily occupied territory of the Zaporizhia region for their own needs. In particular, the school building of one of the settlements of the Pologo district is used by the enemy as a field hospital for 50 beds. Thus, the occupiers try to reduce the period of return to the staff from the number of sanitary losses.

▪️In the Ruby Luhansk region, local the so-called occupation government forces the population to obtain the citizenship of the Russian federation. Ukrainian passports are not yet taken away from people, however, to have a passport of a citizen of the Russian Federation for employment.

⁇ ️During the day, the Aviation of the Defense Forces of Ukraine struck 6 strikes on the areas of concentration of invaders.

Also, this day, our defenders shot down the enemy UAV « Shahed-136» ⁇ ️✖️, a
🇺🇦units of rocket troops and artillery per day affected 7 areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the enemy.

Support 🇺🇦Armed Forces! Let’s win!
Glory to Ukraine!🇺🇦

🇺🇦General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

🚀 Ministry of Defense of Ukraine 👆

And a counter-disinformation announcement from Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Anna Malar:

Ministry of Defense of Ukraine✔
🗣We do not mobilize women without their consent – Anna Malar

🤚Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Anna Malar:

💬 Kremlin propaganda continues to spread fakes and myths, to use fact-driven manipulation to influence Ukrainian society.
In particular, Kremlin propagandists are working on the topic of discrediting mobilization.

Yes, again, the message about the mobilization of women returned to the agenda of pro-Russian telegrams-channels. It would seem that this topic has not received much interest for so many times, but they are persistently trying to promote it «, despite the lack of success.

⁇ ️We do not mobilize women without their consent, not even doctors. And do not send without their consent to the front edge.
If a conscript receives a summons, it is to clarify the data. Because they, according to the law, have to do it for 5 years.

Information is also constantly being spread that there will be summonses through «Action».

Currently, summonses through «Action» are not issued. And the question is not processed.

Another Russian narrative that the mobilized are immediately sent to Bakhmut without training.

In fact, mobilized people who have not served in the military are sent to training centers. Due to the large-scale war, the training of the rank and sergeant staff takes place in reduced terms, but without reducing the quality of training.

!!️If you have been sent to the front edge without gun ownership and training skills, you must report it to the hotline phones. In order to understand and take action quickly, you need to name the name of the mobilized person and the number of the military unit to which they were sent and which the TCC SP sent. Hotline numbers of the Ministry of Defense: 0-800-500-410, 0-800-500-442 and 044-454-44-99

In addition, it should be known that the mobilized are sent to different directions, not just the East.

There are many rear military units in different regions of Ukraine, whose task is to bring our Victory closer. The range is wide – from educational institutions and departments, to bases, warehouses and arsenals, but you can add repair parts, communication parts and cyber defense. It is worth mentioning airfields, spies, car bases. Their protection and defense are needed around the clock. And such positions are also mobilized.

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situations in Kreminna and Bakhmut. The most recent of the two Bakhmut assessments is first.

Here’s updates from Noel on Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Vuhledar, and Kupyansk:

Zaporizhzhia:

Kyiv:

Sevastopol:

Somewhere in England:

The two best replies:

Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

I wanted to post this last night, but I couldn’t find a version that wasn’t behind Spiegel‘s paywall:

Fortunately, Fidelius Schmid who conducted the interview, posted a link to a free English version. Here’s the one bit about Ukraine:

DER SPIEGEL: The suppression of the opposition is getting more and more aggressive.

Navalnaya: Alexei was detained for the first time in 2011 and given 14 days in jail. In 2013, he was sentenced to five years in prison. Only the overwhelming support of the people who came out into the streets helped to free him. For us, it was always clear that the longer Putin stays in power, the worse it would get. Putin will stop at nothing to keep power and money. After the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, I think it became obvious to everyone. It can’t be forgiven. He even has gone so far as to threaten the world with nuclear weapons.

I can’t get to the original German version because of the paywall, but based on this translation I’m not really sure whether Mrs. Navalnaya  is stating that the the full-scale invasion of Ukraine cannot be forgiven or Putin stopping at nothing to keep power and money or the suppression of the opposition, which is the subject of the question. Or all of the above. I will say that I’ve read several profiles of and interviews with Mrs. Navalnaya over the years and my impression is that she’s a decent person trying to do her best under circumstances that would break most people. So I’m willing to give the benefit of the doubt here and chalk the confusion up to a bad translation.

Here’s a bit about how Putin and his lackeys are torturing Navalny in prison: (emphasis mine)

DER SPIEGEL: The reports about Alexei’s state of health have recently caused concern around the world. Is he sick?

Navalnaya: It started in January. It could have been the flu or COVID – they don’t do tests in the (penal) colony. But it was more severe than the usual illness and it lasted longer – for a month or so. Alexei was not given any medical care and was not hospitalized. They sent this man who had been infected to his prison cell to make him even worse.

DER SPIEGEL: A man who suffered from tuberculosis. Do you think that was intentional? Was the intent to infect your husband?

Navalnaya: It happened several times. It is difficult to explain to people from Germany or the United States. How could this happen? But this is the way the Russian prison system works. They treat some people as tools. In Alexei’s case, they try to make his conditions unbearable by any means they have.

DER SPIEGEL: How is he doing in the meantime?

Navalnaya: Of course, after the poisoning (in 2020), his health isn’t fine. He says all the time he’s OK. But I know I’m probably the last person he would tell that he’s not OK. So, when he says publicly that he’s not doing great, I know he feels really bad. For instance, during the hunger strike in April 2021. At the time, I felt that the situation was critical.

DER SPIEGEL: Do you believe his life is in imminent danger?

Navalnaya: He spends much of his time in solitary confinement without proper access to health care. In conditions like that, when you have health problems, they don’t get better, they get worse. He has problems with his hands in the morning, one of his legs feels numb, and he has problems with his back. He is constantly in danger because he is in the hands of the people who tried to kill him with poison. So, he’s in big danger every day and it worries me a lot.

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

61Comments

  1. 1.

    Adam L Silverman

    I’m still fried and feeling bleh. So I may check in back in the comments, but I’m most likely racking out. Catch everyone tomorrow.

  3. 3.

    Alison Rose

    putin walking like me when I fall asleep on the sofa with my legs curled up because the cat is taking up half the space.

    The In Ukraine FB page had a lovely post today, “It is Ukraine”, showing a bunch of photos around the country that might appear to be other places captioned, for example, “This is not Italy. It is Ukraine.” It really is a beautiful place, and I hope that all of the countries which have been helping during the war will continue to do so once russia has been defeated so that Ukraine can rebuild itself and look this gorgeous again from border to border.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  4. 4.

    PaulB

    Get some rest, Adam. And, as always, thank you for all of your efforts to keep us informed.

  5. 5.

    West of the Rockies

    @Alison Rose:

    Yeah, I can’t read anything into his very mild limp.  There were all those reports months ago about possible cancer, tremors, etc.  The miserable goblin is still upright.

  6. 6.

    Alison Rose

    @West of the Rockies: I’m trying to find comfort in the fact that, based on most sources I’ve seen about life expectancy for russian men, he’s either very near or just past the average. (Well…obviously the mobilizations might be cutting into that a bit now.) Tick tock, bitch.

  8. 8.

    Chetan Murthy

    @West of the Rockies: @Alison Rose: That video is getting airplay in lots of places.  And many people saying “that ain’t Putin”.  Gotta say, I agree: at the end he gets into an SUV, in the driver’s seat?  And there’s not a *platoon* of cars all around?  With guards all-around?  Nah, that ain’t Putin.  This is a man who’s so afraid of getting killed he uses that miles-long table, travels in an armoured train, has body doubles, and on and on.  And now he shows up with a meager retinue and *drives himself around* ?  Nah.

  11. 11.

    Jay

    🇺🇦Evacuation of the tails. People say goodbye to the furry ones with tears in their eyes. The animals were delivered to the city of Dnipro, where they are currently in a shelter and wait for their loving parents to be evacuated❤️ pic.twitter.com/69YG352q45— Sofia Ukraini (@SlavaUk30722777) March 18, 2023

  12. 12.

    Alison Rose

    @Chetan Murthy: I’m not seeing that massive of a difference. Not sure how much it all matters, though. If he is sending a clone out in his stead, I don’t see that as a positive thing about his health or his vision of his safety in public, which in turn would be very positive things for us.

  14. 14.

    Another Scott

    @Chetan Murthy: Isn’t Crimea basically just a military camp at the moment?  Wouldn’t it be about the safest place in the world for him to drive a few blocks to catch his plane back home? (Kinda like Fred Thompson and his red pick-up truck.)

    Except for the odd explosions, of course…

    I’m reminded that Saddam supposedly had lots of doubles. Maybe he did, maybe he didn’t. But it’s probably easiest to assume that it was him. (Everyone looks weird, at least in part, because of the wide angle lens and the low resolution.)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  15. 15.

    Anoniminous

    Not sure if this has been posted. If it has please delete.

    Russia Losing Troops So Fast, They May ‘Collapse’ by Year’s End: Ex-General

    “Russia is being attrited at such a rate that they may collapse before the end of this year, assuming the West delivers in time what we’ve promised. War is a test of will and a test of logistics,” Hodges tweeted in reference to an assessment by military expert Marcus M. Keupp, who leads the Department of Defense Economics at the Military Academy of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology.”

    “The dogged onslaught of the Russian units [at Bakhmut] no longer has anything to do with military rationality.”

    Russia has lost this war. The only major question left is the butcher’s bill. How many Russians – because he doesn’t give a flying about Ukrainians – will Putin slaughter before packing it in.

  17. 17.

    Jay

    @Another Scott:

    not really. It is mostly a Russian camp, filled with hangers on to Z campaign, apparatachuks, Ruslan’s who bought stolen Ukrainian homes and dacha’s on the cheap, but there are still loyal Ukrainians there, and Tartars.

    It is weird that Pootie Poot didn’t travel with his ususal crowd of “just average Ruslans”, and his ususal security measures.

  19. 19.

    Anoniminous

    @Another Scott: ​

    Crimea is pretending to be an armed camp. What the Russians have done is a Potemkin village of a single stretch (!) of linear fortifications which would take a modern Combined Arms assault group 30 minutes to an hour to punch through. They are putting dragon’s teeth directly on the ground which a Ukrainian Combat Engineer Vehicle could push out of the way, clearing a path, in about 10 minutes.

    The worst “fortification” (sic) the Ukrainians face is the The 3-mile wide Isthmus of Perekop. And there’s no doubt that is going to be a booger. The terrain mandates there’s only on way through and that’s straight ahead. In 1944 the Soviets, always “elastic” with KIA and WIA stats, took an admitted 84,839 casualties recapturing it from the Germans.  Ukrainians don’t have the sea-lift capability for an amphibious landing. They don’t have the air-lift for an airborne operation. They might have enough of both to place a big enough force to try and capture the Isthmus with a simultaneous assault from both ends?

  20. 20.

    Another Scott

    @Anoniminous: Thanks for the pointer.  Gen Hodges’ tweet points to t-online.de’s interview with Marc Keupp (Google Translate):

    While Prigoshin has made Bakhmut the target of his obsessions, Defense Minister Shoigu wants to conquer Wuhledar, which is also a hotly contested city, at any price.

    This is the same case. The Battle of Wuhledar in February of this year ended disastrously. Russia’s operations management was uncoordinated and unfocused. The Russians lost an estimated 130 mechanized systems. Even if the Russians manage to break through, they will only hit the depths of space where the Ukrainian army has already established new defensive positions. In Bakhmut’s case it would even straighten out the front, which would not harm the Ukrainian position. However, Russia’s defeat is already becoming clear.

    Woran machen Sie das fest? / What are you up to? [ Probably better as “What makes you say that?” ]

    The war will probably be over in October. Expected. I come to this conclusion based on simple calculations: If you add up what Russia had in serviceable tanks and other military vehicles before the war and put that in relation to the wear and tear. I also have the impression that the Russian reserves are extremely overestimated: a lot of the material comes from the 1950s and 1960s, which looks good on paper but has no operational value. Of course, the Russians can repair old tanks, but then they have to compete against Leopard and Challenger. From then on, the Ukrainians have an easy time.

    So the Russian army is running out of material. Are the arms factories not producing enough?

    Before the war, Russia was able to produce around 100 main battle tanks per year – albeit under better economic conditions. However, at the current attrition rate of five tanks per day of combat, they would need to produce 1,500 tanks per year to even out the attrition alone. In addition, Western main battle tanks will soon appear on the battlefields – this will once again fundamentally change the situation in Ukraine’s favour. Western main battle tanks can shoot down Russian ones from a distance. With this fighting power, the Ukrainians will split the Russian front. Then it will be quite dramatic for the Russian troops, because the Ukrainian army will systematically attack their supplies.

    Is he right? No idea.

    I thought it was weird that VVP begged Iran for drones so early on. I thought it was weird that he was using SS-300 surface-to-air anti-aircraft missiles to attack buildings. I thought it was weird that he was unable to quickly establish air superiority. I thought it was weird that his flagship could be sunk so easily. I thought it was weird that soldiers were being issued ancient rusty rifles.

    There were lots of weird things about this re-invasion. Maybe they point to VVP not having operational spares. Maybe the military said no to using modern hardware in this war. Maybe the brass and VVP really had no idea how bad things were in their inventory and sustainment capabilities (maybe the graft and corruption and selling everything not nailed down was actually worse than we’ve heard).

    Maybe.

    But war creates its own dynamics.

    I have no idea how much to trust Keupp’s analysis. I assume that our people at the Pentagon saying that the war would not be over this year were saying that based on reasonable analysis as well…

    We’ll see!

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  23. 23.

    Jay

    @Another Scott:

    There were lots of weird things about this re-invasion. Maybe they point to VVP not having operational spares. Maybe the military said no to using modern hardware in this war. Maybe the brass and VVP really had no idea how bad things were in their inventory and sustainment capabilities (maybe the graft and corruption and selling everything not nailed down was actually worse than we’ve heard).

    We know that only a percentage of German Leopard II’s and British Challenger II’s were “combat ready”. Roughly 20% or less. And that is in arms /military systems that might have waste, bureaucracy and some contractor corruption.

    Russia on the other hand, has opened a factory to refurb T-62’s from the 1960’s, a tank that needs a whole different supply chain.

  24. 24.

    Anoniminous

    @Another Scott: ​ I’m cautiously optimistic the Ukrainians are going to be successful in their Spring Offensive. How successful?
    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    But even if they kick the Russians completely out of Donetsk, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts there’s still Crimea to liberate. I can’t see the Ukrainians doing both in one year unless (a) Putin dies and his successor ends the Special Military Operation or (b) there is a complete collapse of the Russian Army.​
     

    So I doubt the war will be over this year. I am optimistic, if the Ukrainians keep getting the supplies they need, the war will be over in 2024.

  25. 25.

    MomSense

    @Chetan Murthy:

    Usually his right barn is completely still at his side.  The video in Crimea where he is outside, his right arm starts to swing.  Odd.

    Also, too I hate him.

  26. 26.

    Anoniminous

    @Another Scott: ​

    @Jay: ​
    I submit it’s clear Putin was told what he wanted to hear and had no idea the Russian Army was as bad as it has turned-out to be. 1945 was last time the Russians faced an enemy willing and capable of shooting back and everybody’s a gangster ’till the bullets start to fly.

  27. 27.

    patrick II

    @Chetan Murthy:

    I agree it is not Putin.  This guy swings his right arm freely, Putin always holds his still by his side KGB style, never too far from his weapon.

    I see Momsense got there first.  I need to keep my right arm still to be quicker on the draw.

  29. 29.

    Mallard Filmore

    @Anoniminous: 

    But even if they kick the Russians completely out of Donetsk, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts there’s still Crimea to liberate. I can’t see the Ukrainians doing both in one year

    The path forward on that front will be much clearer when the Kerch Bridge is taken down. Maybe waiting for surrender after Russians lose their water and food supply will last into next year.

  30. 30.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Jay: To those who may be unaware, “bavovna” is Ukrainian for cotton. It’s a popular slang term for explosions in enemy territory.

  31. 31.

    Jay

    @Anoniminous:

    I don’t see Ukraine ending the war this year. I think Ukraine will set the conditions for ending the war this year, finish the job in 2024, 2025.

    East of Vuhledar, some 30 km is a 4 rail junction, 3 highway junction that is the major supply route for everything out of Moscovia to Occupied Ukraine, and major RU Command and Control centers. I think they will drive through there to the border of Moscovia, then crush the RU salients around Bahkmut, then go back into defense. The RU southern front is then cut off from the Donbas.

    But I am a tactics/tech guy, not a strategist.

  33. 33.

    Lyrebird

    @Gin & Tonic: Thanks for the explanation!

    And if it’s not overly personal, please accept my condolences that this mega catastrophe of a war has taken another friend from you.

    Seems like almost every Ukrainian is walking around with some craters in their heart by now.

  34. 34.

    MomSense

    @patrick II:

    Yeah but my wicked smaht phone autocorrected arm for barn.  It’s definitely not the usual gunslinger gait.  It’s almost like the limp is a failed attempt to get the exaggerated way he throws his left leg forward.

  36. 36.

    Spanky

    China worries me. Pooty Poot’s balls are in a vise, and Xi can really help him out. I just wonder at what Xi is going to get in exchange for … what? Tanks? Ammo? A little cyber help?

  37. 37.

    Anoniminous

    @Jay: ​
     
    To some extent, yes. In other, and more important things, no.

    Important difference that makes all the difference is the Ukrainian nation-state has an

      Army

    trained, willing, and able to fight using the full panoply of modern weapons in Combined Arms Operations.

  38. 38.

    Anoniminous

    @Mallard Filmore:

    My unprofessional view is taking out the Kerch Bridge is sina qua non for Ukraine capturing the Isthmus.   Especially if the campaign is launched after liberating the other occupied Oblasts.

  39. 39.

    Anoniminous

    One thing none of us have talked about is the very real potential of Russia initiating a Partisan Sabotage Terrorist Campaign when* Ukraine liberates the Separatist Regions.

    Something completely outside my competence to discuss.

    * because I think it is a matter of “when”

  40. 40.

    Anoniminous

    @Spanky: ​
     
    China is getting everything it wants and needs from Russia at discount prices.

    Plus the Chinese people are experiencing widespread and increasing prosperity for the first time since the 1840s.

    Why risk it for no gain?

  41. 41.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @Spanky:

    just wonder at what Xi is going to get in exchange

    As near as I can tell, what Xi wants is A) stability at home, and B) international prestige that can be built into soft power, with the goal of taking the US’s ‘international leader’ status.  Helping Putin does not further either.  If Putin weren’t actually in Xi’s back yard, I suspect it would be “Russia who?” right now.

  43. 43.

    Jay

    @Anoniminous:

    Ukraine’s SBU and Ukrainians in Occupied Ukraine has been keeping close track of the 5th column in Occupied Ukraine. They have blown up a lot of collaberators.

    The only iffy part is that the Moscovites have made it harder for Ukrainian patriots in Occupied Ukraine not “seem” like they are pro-Moscovite, (passports) if they want to eat.

    People who would form a part of a “terrorist” group are either already functionaries in the Occupation, or “Little Green Men”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/13/russian-soldier-who-hid-from-ukrainian-forces-for-six-months-arrested

  44. 44.

    Another Scott

    @Spanky: Xi isn’t going to risk EU and US sanctions to help VVP in the war in a big way.  His interest is in economic growth at home, and it’s already projected to be the slowest in 30 years or so.

    Sure, he doesn’t want the RF to implode either, but he really doesn’t have much room to maneuver here.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  48. 48.

    Yutsano

    @Chetan Murthy: ​Maybe it’s just me, but the writing on those papers looks really old. Like someone in the People’s Liberation Army is sending really old junk for some rubles. I have no idea if that is what is happening here but I used to have a Mandarin textbook my great aunt gave me long ago that had a similar font to that. I don’t think it’s official but I do think some supplies are sneaking into the Russian hands. If I didn’t know better I would think this is a clumsy false flag.

  50. 50.

    Ruckus

    @Jay:

    It is a crap system. We all know that. It rewards bullshit at the highest level. Actual success in manufacturing is difficult and takes effort, work and a desire to succeed. In Russia the monied are successful but not because they design/build good stuff, but because they bullshit about how they design/build good stuff. It isn’t the same. And that is the monied. The people that they pay crap to build stuff, build crap stuff. Sure it’s not all horribly bad but would you put in one ounce more effort than you had to? Humans need a reward system to do well, not the proverbial whip and chains.

  53. 53.

    Ruckus

    @Jay:

    (maybe the graft and corruption and selling everything not nailed down was actually worse than we’ve heard).

    It very likely is. And it likely goes to the top. It’s likely one reason that they have kept old stuff like rifles, tanks etc. Sure one could melt things down and make more modern stuff but that costs a lot of money. It’s easier to just store old crap so it looks like the system is keeping up with desire. Rusty rifles, crappy trucks, tanks and everything else, still almost as good as the day they were made. Almost. Really. Add in not learning anything about organization or combat fighting or military organization because that gives some power to the lessor people.

  54. 54.

    Jay

    @Ruckus:

    it’s not like our system is unbroke.

    Job hunting again because the Corp is clinging to “may” in the offer of a $2.50 raise on completion of “probation”.

    Got a bunch of new certifications, other jobs are offering up to an $18 dollar an hour raise, for my skill set.

    Would have been happy with a $2.50 raise and the same work, but they added to the work, and cut out coffee breaks.

  55. 55.

    Jay

    @Ruckus:

    the Soviet model of modern war, was that industrial production, would not keep up with attrition.

    The old “starting with nukes”, ending with rocks.

    So stocking a bunch of the old stuff that still worked away, made sense.

    Back in 2014, the “little Green Men” captured a salt mine, with over 2 million arms, from WWII relicks back to Napolean era relic sabres.

  57. 57.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay:

    @Chetan Murthy:

    I can’t decipher what the markings mean, but the mortar bombs look too new to be made in 1974. However, as the video shared by Another Scott states, the Russian Army does not normally operate 60 mm mortars. Perhaps in their desperation for artillery & munitions, the Russians have been obtaining 60 mm mortars & associated bombs to supplement their existing inventory.

    China has sold a lot of weapons & munitions to Global South countries since the 80s, I would not be surprised if Chinese manufactured or Chinese designed & license produced weapons, munitions especially, have been sold on to both Russian & Ukraine. Both are desperate.

    During the Soviet-Afghan war, China was in the coalition w/ the US & the Gulf States (+ Israel as a silent partner) to supply the Mujahideen  via Pakistan. A lot of Chinese weapons & munitions were compatible w/ the arms that the Mujahideen had captured from the Soviet or Afghan government forces. However, munitions from that era are probably no longer reliable.

    Politico had recently published a report of actual lethal weapons sold by Chinese state owned defense companies to Russia, specifically 1K CQ-A rifles tagged as civilian hunting rifles. The Politico article suggests that NORINCO (which is a huge Chinese defense industries conglomerate w/ dozens of subsidiaries that largely operate independently) tagged the rifles as civilian firearms for obfuscation. However, the story does not make sense, since the CQ-A is an unlicensed copy of the early gen. M16 chambered for the NATO standard 5.56×45 mm cartridge, which is not what any of the Russian military or internal security forces use. Nor do I think the Russian Army is running short of firearms, or that obtaining firearms that chamber NATO cartridges would be a sensible solution to any such shortage, or that 1K rifles would make up any such shortfall. (NORINCO sells different versions of the Type-56 automatic rifle, unlicensed copy of the AK-47, firing 7.62x39mm ex-Soviet cartridges, for example.)

    Russia imported ~ 19K civilian hunting rifles per year before 2022, mostly from the EU, & only ~ 100 from China. Given the sanctions, Russian buyers would have a much harder time purchasing even civilian firearms from the EU. Considering that NORINCO does export semi-automatic versions of the CQ-A as a civilian hunting rifle, including to Canada, I think it is quite conceivable that the 1K rifles are actually intended to civilian buyers in Russia.

    The other items cited in the Political article are non-lethal items, that are not surprising. Drones from DJI (& other Chinese makers) are used extensively by both sides, including jury-rigged to carry munitions, so both Russia & Ukraine are likely importing drones & drone parts, either directly or through middlemen.

    The 12 tons (assuming metric tons) of Chinese made body armor shipped via Turkey translates to ~ 67K Level IIIA or Level 4 bullet proof vests (at ~ 6 lbs. each on avg.). China does manufacture ~ 70% of the world’s body armor. I am more surprised by the 80 tons of body armor (~ 400K vests) manufactured by Türkiye & exported directly to Russia. Türkiye really is willing to sell to all comers to bolster its defense industry (like China did during the Iran-Iraq War in the 80s), although nothing too sophisticated to Russia, yet.

  58. 58.

    sab

    @Ruckus: I am plugging away at my seasonal tax accounting job although I have meant to retire for several years because my bosses are good people and treat me with respect. Very unusual in accounting. So every year they call me back to work and instead of saying no I say yes.

    My prior bosses I would have said “More work than workers? Working hard out until tax extensions expire? Ha ha.”

  59. 59.

    Hangö Kex

    I suppose everyone (but Mr P himself) would be delighted about Mr P being sent to the Hague to take the blame while things would return to as they were before him starting this trouble?

  60. 60.

    Geminid

    Under its original terms, the Black Sea grain deal renews automatically unless a party makes a formal objection. No formal objection was made, so the deal was renewed yesterday for 120 more days according to the UN, Ukraine and Turkiye, but according to Russia for only 60 days.

    Russia complains that while its exports of fertilizer and grain are exempt from Western sanctions, they are still impeded by the effect of sanctions on banking, insurance etc. The US Ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, says Russia’s objections are specious and that the UN has addressed these problems.

    I guess we’ll see in 60 days if Russia is bluffing with regards to the deal. They do not hold many high cards though, when it comes to the balance of naval power in the western Black Sea, or ensuring that its own grain ships can reach the Mediterranean.

    Interestingly, Russia’s declared extension will run out just a few days after Turkiye’s election on May 14. President Erdogan’s opposition will also support the grain deal if they win. They are if anything more pro-Western than Erdogan.

    The elections could affect the grain deal by making Erdogan take a harder line, and assert Turkish nationalism by publically telling Moscow, “The hell with this 60 days bullshit. Those grain ships are coming through and you can like it or you can lump it!” I don’t think Russia will be in a position to dispute him.

  61. 61.

    J R in WV

    Adam, I can totally understand being too tired to be analytical and polite to people posting shite posts. Take care of yourself, that should be your first priority! And the dogs!!

    Thanks for keeping us informed about this horrible conflict. My heart goes out to the Ukrainian people, who are suffering from this monster’s compulsion.

    The denazification soldier with the eagle and swastika tattoo is revealing, so skinny, malnourished for his whole life so far. No way that poor dude is capable of fighting a winter war. Lucky to be in custody already!

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