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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 392: Zelenskyy Goes to Bakhmut!

War for Ukraine Day 392: Zelenskyy Goes to Bakhmut!

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Someone in comments last night asked who made the image I used at the top of the post. I honestly do not know. Someone sent it to me over a year ago, I saved it, and then used it for a number of posts. Given the theme of last night’s post I thought it was appropriate. If anyone knows who originally made the image, please let me know and I’ll make sure to acknowledge it.

Earlier today President Zelenskyy went to Bakhmut:

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

We will do everything to ensure that the blue and yellow colors continue their liberation movement – address by the President of Ukraine

22 March 2023 – 19:51

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today I have been working in the regions all day. Donbas – the frontline, our warriors, the region. The Kharkiv region after that – the situation in Kharkiv, on the border, in all districts of the region, restoration, protection of critical infrastructure.

I started from the front, from the Bakhmut area. It is an honor for me to support our warriors who are defending the country in the toughest frontline conditions. I presented state awards, thanked our soldiers for their bravery, for their resilience, for Ukraine – which we are preserving thanks to such heroes, thanks to each and every one of them who is fighting against Russian evil.

I paid a visit to the wounded warriors. I wished them – and I’m sure on behalf of all of you, all of our people – a speedy recovery.

I thanked the doctors and nurses. And now I want to thank everyone who supports our soldiers recovering from injuries. Who helps with everything necessary, our doctors, everyone who works for rehabilitation after injuries. I am grateful to every volunteer, every partner of ours who helps!

It is distressing to look at the cities of Donbas, to which Russia has brought terrible suffering and ruin. The almost constant, hourly air-alert siren in Kramatorsk, the constant threat of shelling, the constant threat to life… Right there, in Donbas, in the Kharkiv region – wherever Russian evil has come, it is obvious that the terrorist state cannot be stopped by anything other than one thing – our victory. And we will ensure it – the Ukrainian victory.

In all areas of the east of our country, where there is a Ukrainian flag, there is also hope. It is felt. We will do everything so that the blue and yellow colors continue their liberation movement – returning normal life to our entire land, from Donetsk to the border.

We will certainly respond to the occupier for every attack on our cities… Today’s Russian strikes at Zaporizhzhia, the night attack on the Kyiv region… All Russian strikes will receive a military, political, and legal response.

Russia will lose this war. There is no subject in the world who does not feel this already. Everyone understands all this. And every Russian murderer should understand that an arrest warrant is the best thing that can happen to them.

My condolences to all our people who lost their relatives and loved ones due to Russian terror!

In the second half of the day, I, my team, the Head of the Office – we all worked in the Kharkiv region. Just as in the Donetsk region, I held a meeting on the situation in the region, on social and security needs.

It is very important that Kharkiv stands strong. Well done! Thank you, people of Kharkiv! You hold on with confidence. The city lives, the city fights, Kharkiv gives strength to our entire east. I thank everyone who stayed in Kharkiv, who works, who gives work to others, who maintains security, protects the border! Thank you to everyone – in positions, at posts, at critical infrastructure facilities, utility workers, local authorities, businesses, educators…

The representatives of the region informed me about some issues that must be resolved by the government for stable social security of all those who work for our people in the Kharkiv region. These issues were discussed. We also discussed issues of reconstruction, humanitarian demining, and restoration of energy networks. Everything that is within the competence of the government will be done for sure.

And, of course, I was very pleased to hand over a special award to Kharkiv… Award of the hero city, a ribbon on the city’s flag denoting the special bravery of the people of Kharkiv.

And one more thing.

This evening begins the holy month of Ramadan for Muslims. A significant part of our Ukrainian Muslim community, the Crimean Tatar people, is forced to meet Ramadan under occupation, under the threat of Russian repression and abuse in Crimea, under shelling in other parts of Ukraine, and in frontline battles.

I have no doubt that we will return freedom, respect, and security to our entire state and to all communities. And may the power of prayer in this holy month help us cleanse Ukraine of Russian godless evil, of those who truly believe in nothing, and that is why they are capable of such terror. Let the next Ramadan begin in peace and on the entire Ukrainian land free from Russia. Ramadan Mubarak!

Glory to all who are now fighting for Ukraine and the people!

Gratitude to everyone who helps every day!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here’s the most recent operational update from the Ukrainian MOD machine translated from the post on their Telegram channel:

Ministry of Defence Ukraine✔
‼️Operational information as of 18.00 on 22.03.2023 regarding the Russian invasion

⚔️ The fiercest battles continue in the southern and northern parts of Bakhmut, and the enemy also carried out offensive actions in the Avdiivka direction with the aim of establishing control over Avdiivka and Maryinka.

▪️During the day, the enemy launched a rocket attack on Zaporizhzhia, as a result of which 2 Russian rockets hit a residential multi-storey building, there were deaths and injuries among civilians. The enemy also carried out 41 air strikes. In particular, the occupiers used 21 UAVs of the Shahed-136 type from the Bryansk region of the Russian Federation, 16 of these drones were shot down. As a result of the enemy UAV strikes, the Russians hit the territory of the dormitory of the technical college in Rzhyshchev, Kyiv region, there were deaths and injuries among civilians, as well as damage to the object of civilian critical infrastructure in Zhytomyr region. In addition, the invaders launched more than 30 attacks from rocket salvo systems.

▪️On the Kupyansk and Lymansk directions, the enemy continues to try to break our defenses. He led unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Makiivka and Bilogorivka settlements. Conducted artillery shelling of Dvorichna, Kupyansk and Krokhmalne settlements of Kharkiv region; Belogorivka – Luhansk, as well as Kolodyazi and Verkhnokamianske in Donetsk region.

▪️In the Bakhmut direction, the enemy continues to conduct offensive actions, but its offensive potential is decreasing. The enemy does not stop trying to capture the city, losing a significant amount of manpower, weapons and military equipment. Our defenders repel numerous enemy attacks around the clock in the areas of Bakhmut, Bohdanivka and Predtechine settlements. Settlements near the contact line, including Vasyukivka, Mynkivka, Hryhorivka, Bakhmut, Ivanovske, Bila Gora, Druzhba, Mayorsk, Zalizne and New York of the Donetsk region, were hit by enemy shelling.

▪️On the Avdiivsk, Marinsk, and Shakhtarsk directions, the enemy carried out offensive actions in the areas of Novokalynov, Stepove, Berdychi, Avdiivka, Lastochkine, Severna, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Marinka, and Pobieda settlements – without success . In particular, Avdiivka, Vodyane, Karlivka, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Vugledar and Velika Novosilka of the Donetsk region came under enemy fire.

▪️In the settlement of Vesele in the temporarily occupied territory of the Zaporizhzhya region, on the territory of the building of the kindergarten, the Russian occupying forces set up a military hospital .

▪️The Russian criminal authorities continue measures for forced passporting of the population of the temporarily occupied and occupied territories of Ukraine. Thus, in the settlements of the Kherson region, the Russian occupying so-called “authorities” have been threatening local residents since April to stop paying pensions in the absence of a Russian passport.

▪️At the same time, in the Starobil Vocational College of the Luhansk National Agrarian University, a meeting of teachers was held, who expressed dissatisfaction with the forced passporting of the teaching staff, due to the instruction of the occupying so-called “leadership” of the educational institution, that all employees of the college should receive a passport of a citizen of the Russian Federation by June 1. Teachers are not given the opportunity to resign at their own will. The occupiers took measures to forcibly disperse and stop the meetings.

✈️During the day, the aviation of the Defense Forces struck the enemy’s anti-aircraft missile complex, as well as 12 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the occupiers.

🇺🇦General Staff of the Armed Forces

🚀 Ministry of Defence Ukraine👆

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situations in Avdiivka, Kreminna, and Bakhmut:

Bakhmut:

 

Konstyantynivka:

The original tweet machine translates as:

Donetsk region.
Konstantinovka.
Our president and our unbreakable team of one of the two operating gas stations in the city.

P.S. We filled up with the right kind of fuel – Pulls of revenge.

Zaporizhzhia:

Borodyanka:

Kyiv:

Occupied Sevastopol, Crimea:

Vladivostok:

Primorsky Krai:

The original tweet machine translates as:

News that will please fans of gluing tanks: in the possession of our team there are photos of a train carrying T-54 tanks of the mid-20th century from the Primorsky Krai to the West. We see this as a sign of a shortage of armored vehicles in the Russian Armed Forces

Dmitri and his merry band of translators at WarTranslated have translated the 24TV Ukraine interview with Mykhailo Podylak:

24tv.ua interview: The counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces should be a surprise for the enemy – Mykhailo Podolyak
Posted on 22 March 2023

A translation of an interview with the Adviser to the President of Ukraine, Mykhailo Podolyak by Kanal 24 (Ukraine), from 17.03.2023.

Original article: https://24tv.ua/intervyu-mihaylom-podolyakom-pro-pidgotovku-kontrnastupu-syurpriz_n2275897

By Alina Vyshnevska (for Kanal24, @24tvua)

Translation by @Anastasiya1451A

Original video interview in Ukrainian:

The development of Ukraine after the liberation of the territories

Interviewer: The occupiers completely wiped off the face of the earth the city of Popasna in the Luhansk region (pre-war population of 20,000) – this is something that they admitted to. However, just a couple of days ago the Russian mercenary group “Wagner” boasted that they had taken a village inhabited by 2 people until 2022. They told about the heavy battles with which the village was taken.

Podolyak: It is the village of Zaliznyanskoe. There are literally 3 buildings in that village. And I just want to note one thing: there is no such thing as so-called “L/DPR” – there are territories that are temporarily occupied by Russia. There is no Luhansk or Zaporizhzhia region that joined Russia. There is only a common act of aggression – a war initiated by Russia against Ukraine, and it has corresponding goals:

-to destroy the maximum number of citizens of Ukraine – civilians, military – it does not matter.

-to destroy the maximum number of Ukrainian towns and villages in the occupied territories.

-to loot, if not destroy, everything that is in the occupied territories.

-to try to stay there for a certain time, as they in Crimea, unfortunately for you and me, stayed for 8 years.

 

Crimea was stolen and robbed. Today, [Russians] are taking everything out of there, because they understand that it won’t be like in 2014. When Russians went in and appointed some criminals, such as Aksyonov, as the heads of unrecognized administrative units, it will be for a certain time. They understand that this won’t last in 2023. Therefore, they gradually begin to take everything from Crimea – to evacuate their families [to Russia], to take away the material values ​​that they have accumulated during this time.

But in between, there is no difference in what kind of documents they write, what kind of administrative arrangements, etc. It will not be discussed at all. Russia must necessarily lose, because only after that we will be able to hold negotiations with Russia within the framework of international institutions. It is also key for us to record everything that they have to compensate Ukraine.

 

The rebuilding and development of Ukraine after the liberation of its territories is a huge cost that we will need to cover somehow. I understand that when a country wins a big war, investors come here because it will be a huge brand of freedom. And there will be a lot of people who would want to invest in Ukraine.

This is very important, because it will not be so much about profits, although those who want to make big profits will come as well. After all, there will be a boom here. And this will be an investment in symbolism. But in order to correct historical injustice, we need to take a huge amount of money from Russia [as reparations].

This is why it is important to record these facts about Popasna, other settlements that were completely or partially destroyed. Just look at Mariupol!

In Russia, there is this individual, Faizullin, he heads the Russian Ministry of Construction, who says that they built something there in Mariupol. 2 houses were built for the exhibition, and the surrounding buildings and infrastructure were completely destroyed. There just is no Mariupol as such. There is no Bakhmut either – from the point of view of what kind of cities they were before the Russian invasion.

If you look at Donetsk, where fat men like Pushylin are running around, there is no Donetsk. This is a strange, criminal, uncomfortable, completely destroyed city. Such cities cannot exist in the modern world. There is nothing to do there.

In 8 years, they did not make it into a “model, magazine cover” city, they made Donetsk look like any other city in Russia. I do not mean Moscow and St. Petersburg, but any other city – destroyed, uncomfortable, neglected – one that cannot exist in the modern world.

 

Thousands of destroyed occupiers near Bakhmut

Interviewer: The senior military adviser to the delegates of Great Britain to the OSCE at the Security Cooperation Forum in Vienna says that Russia lost at least 30,000 killed in the Bakhmut. At the same time, we saw that they managed to occupy only 0.004% of the territory for the month of February. In fact, 30 thousand were killed for 25km2 [the size of two London Heathrow Airports].

Podolyak: Let’s record who exactly the Ukrainians killed near Bakhmut. These were the most prepared remnants of the Russian army – those who know how to fight. All others in Russia – these are mobilized – a completely different level of training.

For me, it is much more important that Russia today has a certain resource depletion. They have much less ammunition. They reduced the intensity of shelling. Yes, it is high, but it is not what it was six months ago.

Russia is hysterically looking for shells in other markets, including Iran, North Korea, and China. Do you understand now the intensity of this war?

And this creates an important sense of panic in the military and political leadership of Russia. They understand that they calculated this war expecting it to last a certain number of days, for which they did not care how many missiles, shells, etc. they would spend.

When they say that the war will drag on for years, I ask: where are the resources? It is not a question of dragging out the war when you take a machine gun and use firearms. After all, the intensity of the war is great, so where are the shells, missiles, etc.?

Therefore, they spent not only 30,000 soldiers on the Bakhmut offensive. In total, they spent 3 thousand tanks. Although Russia wrote before the war that 12,000 tanks were in storage in Russia. But let’s be objective. There are not 12 thousand, but much less. And there are even fewer of those capable of combat. Almost everything has already been destroyed.

Therefore, they search hysterically. In Belarus, they took away everything that was in stockpiles. But not all tanks are ready for use, because this is Belarus [and] Russia after all – they steal everything internally. Therefore, war is Mathematics.

Preparation for the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces

Interviewer: Politico reported our losses of 100,000 [KIA, MIA & WIA]. Yet, then Politico immediately gives information that Ukraine’s counteroffensive will begin in May. The publication even presents 2 possible scenarios.

Podolyak: I find it a bit ironic when journalists say what counterattack scenarios Ukraine will use. Maybe, they should take a direct part in the work of the General Staff of Ukraine and plan operations then? If they understand so well what exactly where and when to do.

Firstly, newspapers should not discuss the timing of the counter-offensive. It should be a surprise for the enemy. It can only be said that the following months are required to accumulate a certain resource. After all, an offensive requires tools in a certain amount, which must be accumulated. We understand how long this will take logistically.

Secondly, even the military does not need to talk about the priority directions or scenarios of the attack. Ukraine is much more creative than Politico journalists think. We have already proven this many times during the war. In particular, in the Kharkiv region or with what is happening now in general along the frontline, especially in the Donetsk direction.

The main thing is that both the military leadership – in the Armed Forces and the Ministry of Defence, and the political leadership, first of all, I am talking about Volodymyr Zelenskyi – have a completely consolidated position that we cannot stop midway. We need counterattacks at a certain point. And this requires a concentration of resources.

We cannot simply retreat or advance without being prepared for different scenarios and taking into account all the risks. All this is discussed at the Headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, where collective decisions are made, and all scenarios are openly discussed. The only thing that isn’t there is Politico or any other journalists.

Let’s not get carried away by peer reviews or journalistic publications on these hyped topics. Let’s wait for the development of events. We have no other option but to go on the counterattack at a certain time according to a certain scenario. Otherwise, there will be no statehood of Ukraine.

Stopping somewhere in the middle, as it was in 2014 – when the territories remained under the occupation of Russia – will mean that after some time, Ukraine will not exist as a state. After all, Russia today at various levels, including Vladimir Putin, fixes its position: “Ukraine must be destroyed as a state and a territory where Ukrainians live.”

Much, much, much more at the link!

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

80Comments

  1. 1.

    dmsilev

    T-54/T-55s, huh? How long until we start seeing T-34s pulled out of museums and parade grounds and sent off to the front lines?

  2. 2.

    MagdaInBlack

    Zelenskyy turning up in Bakhmut is a pretty big F you to the coward with the football field length tables and 3 body doubles.

  4. 4.

    Gin & Tonic

    To those who aren’t aware, OKKO (see Chris Miller’s Tweet) is a chain/brand of gas stations. Just as in the US or Europe, there you can fill your car’s tank and buy a wide variety of indigestion-inducing foods.

  6. 6.

    Alison Rose

    I trust there won’t be any debates here about whether or not that was really Zelenskyy out there ;) When I saw this morning that he’d gone, it was the usual mixed emotional response of “God, what a leader, what a terrific human being” and also “OMG GO BACK INSIDE PLEASE JFC”. But I am always so glad to see him make these visits, to show his people that he is with them and has their backs and cares about them.

    Also, I cracked up at Kyianyn calling putin “the little botox bellend”. Kudos, sir.

    The Kyiv Independent had a post up on FB with a list of recommended books to better understand Ukraine and russia’s war against it. A couple of these were already on my (absurdly long) TBR, but a few others also look interesting. If anyone here has read any of them and wants to point me to one or two in particular, I’d be glad to hear it.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  10. 10.

    JAFD

    @Alison Rose: ​
     Has anybody ever read Borderland; A Journey through the History of Ukraine by Anna Reid ?
    A friend of mine bought me a copy at local ‘remaindered books’ store when I was in nursing home after my heart attack. 2015 English paperback edition, price tags $19.95 Canadian, under a $3.00 US. Probably worth at least that. Don’t remember much of what I read of it then, must reread sometime soon.

  13. 13.

    zhena gogolia

    @Alison Rose: Serhii Plokhii is highly recommended. I’ve heard good things about Mondegreen but haven’t read it yet (it’s on the pile).

  16. 16.

    YY_Sima Qian

    That’s a gutsy move by Zelenskyy to visit so close to the Bakhmut front! But we’ve known his fortitude since the start of the current invasion. It might also suggest that the Ukrainians intend to try to hold Bakhmut at all costs, which I think many western observers are more ambivalent about.

    As for the T54/55s, even the T-34s, they still can be marginally useful as assault guns for infantry support, in the kind of positional warfare that is taking place at Bakhmut & the surrounding environs. After all, earthen works have not advanced much since WW I. In fact, it is a waste to utilize the modern T-90s or even the modernized T-72s for such role & exposing them to infantry anti-tank fires. However, due to lack of night vision, they can only be used during day time (making them vulnerable to cheap drones dropping AT grenades). Lack of decent fire controls means their rate & accuracy of fire will be poor, though perhaps somewhat less important in the relatively short engagement ranges of trench warfare. They would be mince meat when facing the modernized T-72s & T-80s in Ukrainian arsenal, let alone the Leopard 2s & Challenger 2s that are coming. All that is assuming these antiques had been properly stored, have been properly refurbished, the crews properly trained/motivated, & properly tactics employed.

    What it may suggest is that the Russian Army could be running out of the refurbished T-62s/64s they have been using in the infantry support role, & that is significant in & of itself.

  18. 18.

    Chetan Murthy

    @YY_Sima Qian: This seemed interesting and relevant.  Might even be true.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/22/2159645/-Quick-Explainer-Russia-s-lack-of-range-finders-or-why-ancient-T55s-are-being-pulled-from-storage

    So basically, if a Leopard 2 is on a hill with extensive LOS (line of sight) extending 10km, it could theoretically hit a column of approaching tanks from 10km (6 miles).  A T90 could shoot back once it’s within 6.5km (4 miles).

    if you’re unfortunately enough to be on a T55 charging at a platoon of Leopard 2s, you’d have to travel 9 kms through enemy fire to get within 1km before you could even shoot back with a prayer of hitting anything.

  19. 19.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Alison Rose: Seconding the Plokhii recommendation. Both he and Snyder are very good scholars and very good writers, although Plokhii’s prodigious output leads to rumors that some of that output is more attributable to his students. That said, if you haven’t read Bloodlands, you really need to.

  24. 24.

    Betty

    @Gin & Tonic: I have been following his Yale lectures and decided I have to read Bloodlands to get a fuller understanding of Ukraine’s history. It is a remarkable place.

  26. 26.

    japa21

    The rebuilding and development of Ukraine after the liberation of its territories is a huge cost that we will need to cover somehow. I understand that when a country wins a big war, investors come here because it will be a huge brand of freedom. And there will be a lot of people who would want to invest in Ukraine.

    This is very important, because it will not be so much about profits, although those who want to make big profits will come as well. After all, there will be a boom here. And this will be an investment in symbolism. But in order to correct historical injustice, we need to take a huge amount of money from Russia [as reparations].

    I definitely feel there will be a lot of businesses looking at getting into Ukraine after this is over. And within 5-10 years a thriving travel business. I had never considered Ukraine as one of my travel destinations in Europe (where I have never been) but I have changed my mind on that.

    I am pretty sure US companies could work out a pleasant tax deal with Democrats.

  27. 27.

    Mallard Filmore

    @YY_Sima Qian: It might also suggest that the Ukrainians intend to try to hold Bakhmut at all costs, which I think many western observers are more ambivalent about.

    Assuming that Russian forces will attack like mad SOMEWHERE, perhaps the UA leadership thinks Bakhmut delivers a better attrition ratio than they expect to get at a different location.

  28. 28.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Sergey Radchenko at Johns Hopkins has a good Twitter thread summarizing the Xi-Putin summit:

    The Xi-Putin summit has ended and it’s time to take a quick look at where we stand. At the start of the summit I mentioned that, much as Mao during his meeting with Stalin in 1949, Putin wanted something that “looked good but also tasted delicious.” The results are disappointing.

    True, the summit looked good for Putin. Shunned in the West, now wanted by ICC for war crimes, mired in an endless war in Ukraine, Putin wanted Xi in Moscow to demonstrate that he still has friends in high places.

    But once you look at the details, the summit can be summarised by the Chinese saying 雷声大雨点小 (Loud thunder but few raindrops). Scratch that, even the thunder wasn’t all that loud.

    …

    At the end of his state visit to Moscow, Xi Jinping just invited Putin to attend the 3rd Belt & Road Forum in China later this year (Putin had attended the 1st 2). Historically (i.e., not just the PRC), Chinese diplomacy has been pretty anal about protocol. Standard protocol would suggest that Putin  receive an invitation for a state visit, in reciprocity for hosting Xi on a state visit. Attending the B&R Forum along other world leaders is a downgrade. OTOH, it will mostly be leadership from Global South countries attending, so it will not be that hostile an environment for Putin, less hostile than will be at the G20 meeting in India, & probably on par w/ the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in India.

    On the heel of leaving Moscow, in is Nowruz congratulatory telegrams, Xi just invited the leaders of the 5 Central Asia Republics to attend the 1st ever China-Central Asia Summit. It will be the 1st time that China is hosting such an event w/o Russia at the table. That is a more powerful signal & might be a more impactful event than all of the flowery political language pronounced at Moscow (we’ll see how many of the economic MOUs signed in Moscow actually come to fruition).

  29. 29.

    japa21

    @Mallard Filmore: I am guessing that Russia is trying to attack like mad everywhere as much as they are able.  They can’t leave any more areas or Ukraine will roll in and consolidate.  Russia definitely isn’t done, but they are looking worse and worse every day.

  30. 30.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Mallard Filmore: I am sure that is the calculation of the Ukrainian high command. I see more skepticism from Western observers (who do not have access to the same information as the Ukrainian high command & thus are making educated guesses.)

  31. 31.

    japa21

    @YY_Sima Qian: Watching some of the video of their meeting I was very much reminded of the Trump-Putin meeting.  Putin sat there looking down at the floor most of the time, Xi had his typical enigmatic smile on his face.  I think he was enjoying what was, in effect, a very humiliating experience for Putin.

  34. 34.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy: I don’t think the terrain in Eastern Ukraine is conducive to such theoretical engagement scenarios. Despite being relatively flat, it is filled w/ rises & depressions, gullies for rivers & streams, lines of trees, scattered woods, hedgerows, & villages/hamlets, all of which obstruct LOS.

    The open, empty, flat deserts of southern Iraq, sure.

  35. 35.

    oldster

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    “Xi just invited the leaders of the 5 Central Asia Republics to attend the 1st ever China-Central Asia Summit. It will be the 1st time that China is hosting such an event w/o Russia at the table.”

    Yes, this jumped out at me. Looks genuinely epoch-making. Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, all touch China. If China is making a move to develop relations with them that do not include Russia, then Russia is truly losing its southeastern flank. Putin is giving away his dreams of reconstituting the USSR, whether intentionally or not. And parts of Siberia may be in play in the longer run.

    In my (fairly ignorant) view, this is a BFD of world-historical proportions.

  36. 36.

    Alison Rose

    @japa21: As childish as it is, I was hoping some brave soul might show up wearing a Winnie the Pooh t-shirt or something. I don’t know if Xi still gives a shit about that, but if there’s even a small chance it would annoy him, it would be a good move (if it were a safe one).

  38. 38.

    Jay

    @Mallard Filmore:

    Rob Lee has pointed out that since the Rucists have pushed onto the flanks of Bakhmut, the “exchange rate” is not as favorable to Ukraine as it was.

    Others have pointed out that the Rucists “Winter Offensive” has been a bust for the most part, that the “flanking” of Bakhmut has created two salients, prime for being cut off and destroyed, with some of the few remaining “effective” Rucist units inside.

    Ukraine may want to hold Bakhmut until General Mud has left the field. Destroying those salients would not be a strategic victory, but it would be a propaganda victory.

  40. 40.

    Another Scott

    @Mallard Filmore: The Perun video (roughly 1 hour) that Jay pointed to last night addresses the reasoning pretty well (I think).

    tl;dr – The russian general that saved his forces at Kherson by evacuating them, and then reinforcing defenses, did the militarily sensible thing. But that’s not the politically necessary thing – VVP needs a victory. So that general was cashiered and some new guy was brought in to go on the attack, no matter the cost. Ukraine is doing well to keep them from having political victories over the winter while marshalling forces to counterattack this spring.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  41. 41.

    Mallard Filmore

    @YY_Sima Qian: 

    I see more skepticism from Western observers

    In addition to what may, or not, be the most favorable attrition location … war is so unpredictable that moving the hottest point of contact can be freaking dangerous.

    Bakhmut is sort of stable now. A theoretical improvement elsewhere is possible, but things can always get worse.

  42. 42.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @japa21: I was going to write that the “responsible” observers are making educated guess, & more importantly are transparent about their commentaries being educated guesses. I dropped it because we generally do not highlight irresponsible observers here.

  43. 43.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @YY_Sima Qian: ​
     

    As for the T54/55s, even the T-34s, they still can be marginally useful as assault guns for infantry support, in the kind of positional warfare that is taking place at Bakhmut & the surrounding environs. After all, earthen works have not advanced much since WW I. In fact, it is a waste to utilize the modern T-90s or even the modernized T-72s for such role & exposing them to infantry anti-tank fires.

    This is an opinion on the topic. I mean a battery of French 75s would be marginally useful on the modern battlefield too. I can’t see anyone deploying one if they weren’t desperate AF. YMMV.

  44. 44.

    Gin & Tonic

    @oldster: I’m not sure why you consider them russia’s “southeastern flank.” The only one of the five which shares a border with russia is Kazakhstan.

  46. 46.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Alison Rose: Doing that in Russia on a Xi visit? Not going to happen. & if someone in Russian will accept arrest in exchange for political protest, I am sure they would target Putin.

  47. 47.

    Prescott Cactus

    The University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa Department of Music,  The Hawaii Flute Society and *Pacific Gateway Center present “Natural Homeland: Honoring Ukraine” a free multimedia flute concert honoring Ukraine.

    The 90-minute performance by Amelia Lukas will be on Saturday, March 25 at 7:30 p.m. at UH Mānoa’s Orvis Auditorium. A talk between the artists and partners follows the performance.

    (*Pacific Gateway Center, first organized in 1973 in response to the Vietnam war has been a safe haven for the displaced to begin the process of rebuilding their lives. Since 2022, it has served close to 140 individuals from Ukraine with immigration, legal and social services)

    TY3A       (Thank you as always, Adam)

  48. 48.

    Jay

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    the 75mm mountain gun, which is a variation on the French 75, is still around and in demand. During the Afghan War, Canada stripped a bunch of them from Avalanche crews, because nobody has made a man portable howitzer you can haul to the top of a mountain to replace it.

    The Rucists have pulled out of storage T-62’s, (115mm ammo), now are digging out T-54’s, (100mm ammo),

  49. 49.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Jay: The Rucists have pulled out of storage T-62’s, (115mm ammo), now are digging out T-54’s, (100mm ammo),

    What do you think the context of my comment was?
    ETA:  Would you prefer that I substitute Napoleonic War six pound gun for French 75?​

    ETAA: “Where a goat can go, a man can go. And where a man can go, he can drag a gun.”- William Phillips​​

  52. 52.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Omnes Omnibus: Everything I write is just MHO.

    No doubt, the Russians are desperate. OTOH, both Russia & Ukraine are also using early Cold War era artillery. In fact, artillery (& assault guns are a form of direct fire artillery) do not become obsolete as quickly. What I am cautioning against is the sentiment that these weapons are useless. They were perfectly dangerous to foot soldiers in trenches decades ago, & they still can be today. Human anatomy has not evolved, & trenches have not evolved much, either.

    Another factor to consider is that the T54s/55s have 100 mm smoothbore guns, a different caliber from the the T-72s/80s/90s that Russia has been using. Not sure how many functional munitions for these guns Russia still has in stock. To me, that is the real challenge of using early Cold War or late WW II era weapons – the lack of reliable munitions, if they are of a different caliber compared to modern inventory.

  53. 53.

    Jay

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    just pointing out that some old weapons systems are still effective and “niche”, while some are not. T-62’s and T-54/55’s are not.

    Ukraine has dug out Maxim gun’s, some dating back to WWI, because the water jacketed barrels allow a much more sustained rate of fire, for a longer time period than modern guns. Great for dealing with “human wave” attacks. No need to change out the barrel until you have put 600,000 rounds down range.

    You won’t get that out of a “Ma Duce” or a Kord.

  55. 55.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Omnes Omnibus: I honestly can’t see these museum pieces having much utility at all. Where is the ammunition supposed to come from?

    Abstracted from Wikipedia:

    Tank Model   Main Armament

    T-34                      76.2mm

    T-44                      85.0mm

    T-54/T-55             100.0mm

    IS Tanks                122mm

    T-62                       115mm

    T-72                       125mm

    So what, did they store T-55 ammo for over 40 years? I sure would’t want to be within 300 feet of a tank firing that shell. Or are they starting up new shell manufacturing plants, relying on the world-famous Russian industrial prowess?

    This story makes no sense. Think of the hand-wringing we’re doing in the West about standardized ammo supply, and we have an order of magnitude more production capacity than Russia. WTF?

    It looks like classic-hardware fetishism to me.

  58. 58.

    Another Scott

    @Sister Golden Bear: You’re right about tonight’s image.  I think Adam is talking about yesterday’s image of the seated woman hugging Ukraine.

    I did some poking around yesterday and can only find it here. TinEye and Google Images only find it here for me.

    Hmmm…

    Amazingly, Bing found it. Here:

    #UkraineWillWin and stay free. Illustration by Oleksandra Olishevska

    https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1507360592880975876

    Thanks.

    [eta:] Bing seems to be better than Google at searching Twitter stuff.  I’ll have to keep that in mind.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  59. 59.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay: I’d say T-54/55/62s still can be effective in a niche role, but only as infantry support assault guns in a positional warfare environment, definitely not as main battle tanks in maneuver warfare.

    I think a sign of China actually making the strategic decision to sell lethal weapons to Russia, in order to shore up the latter’s position in Ukraine, would be sudden improvement in the Russian Army’s ammo situation, in terms of availability, quality & sophistication. Not the odd reports of 1000 rifles firing NATO standard cartridges, or US$12M’s worth of drone parts (DJI alone sold > $20B worth of drones & parts globally in 2022).

  60. 60.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @japa21: Outside of Adam, the vast majority of us are just random posters on internet, particularly when we talk outside of our domain expertise (which is most of us when it comes to war). OTOH, we do not have the reach or impact of the analysts being quoted in MSM or promoted on social media.

  61. 61.

    Lyrebird

    @Sister Golden Bear: I think they’re looking for the artist who made the woman sitting and hugging an outline of Ukraine in her lap rather than Neivanmade, but I could easily be mistaken.

    oops Another Scott is way ahead of me on all counts!

  64. 64.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: The fUSSR supposedly kept late-WW II & early Cold War era weapons & munitions in proper storage until the end of the Cold War, just in case there is a Great Patriotic War 2.0. (Who know how well they were kept, as the Soviet economy fell apart into the 80s.) In the 30+ years since, the munitions were probably left to rust. I am not sure Russia even has the factories & the toolings to manufacture the munitions. However, I think the T-54s/T-55s use the same 100 mm smoothbore gun as the 100 mm AT gun from the same era. The latter have been seen in DNR/LNR service, so some munitions are clearly still available

    Edit: Ninja’ed by Jay.

  65. 65.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Lyrebird: worth a click: it looks tasty.

    Even during my short stint in NYC, I didn’t have a better hot dog than any of the ones I had in Ukrainian service stations
    — Henry Langston (@Henry_Langston) July 26, 2022

  67. 67.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    T-62’s that the Rucists are using, have been “modernized” and upgraded. New gun computer, same sights as the T-80, Kontact armour. Still limited by the gun. Not really useful in the indirect fire roll, (range, accuracy, limited HE). Not useful in combat against a semi modern tank or even an IFV. Might have some utility as a road block, entrenched bunker or keeping people in Occupied Ukraine scared.

    T-54/55 are effectively useless. They ran out of feasable upgrades in the 1970’s.

  69. 69.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Another Scott: I tend to agree w/ Evan Feigenbaum that the recent narrative of Russia becoming China’s “vassal” is overstated (despite his colleague Alexander Gabuev being among those promoting it). As long as Putin has thousands of nukes under his command, he is not anyone’s vassal, & is perfectly capable of exercising agency. It is in any case not the most useful framing.

    However, there is a clearly & rapidly widening disparity in power & optionality. Russia simply does not have many options in any arena anymore. China does, even in its relations w/ the West, strained as they are (& w/ the US specifically despite being in the early stages of a new Cold War).

  70. 70.

    Geminid

    @oldster: Kazakhstan and Kyrgestan also belong to the Organization of Turkic States, along with Uzbehistan, Azerbaijan, and Turkiye. This organization presents another challenge to Russian influence in the USSR’s former Central Asian republics.

  71. 71.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Another Scott: I’m sure someone with a better memory for photos is even now finding the perfect Putin+TFG photo (from Helsinki, probs) to juxtapose with a Xi+Putin pic.  A study in domination, so to speak.

  72. 72.

    Chetan Murthy

    @YY_Sima Qian: Ehh, I’m not so sure that nukes gives Putin any leverage at all, when China is using economic tools.  Even if we stipulate that armed force can take over regions intact (with all economic production unscathed — yeah, I said *stipulate* *grin*) Putin is rapidly running-out, and I am guessing that Xi and his successor(s) will ensure that Russia never rebuilds enough to be a credible conventional threat.

    And meanwhile, China is a economic juggernaut: Russia will find it very difficult to do anything other than just be a resource colony.

  73. 73.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Geminid:

    @oldster:

    The new events merely formalizes the recent trends, trends that rapidly accelerated since Feb. 2022 due to Putin’s own actions. China has already been the dominant economic power in Central Asia for years, w/ Türkiye, South Korea, Japan & the EU making inroads at Russia’s expense. The astounding failures of the Russian military in Ukraine has badly weakened Russia’s position as the dominant military power in Central Asia. Russia used to dominate people-to-people ties at the granular level, too, but the mobilizations & the worsening wartime economy has driven a lot of the immigrants from Central Asia back home.

    The CARs are looking to expand their options. They will likely reach out to the EU/US/Japan/India/Iran, too, to an extent. However, geography, economic gravity & shared threat perception (against liberal democratic activism, Islamic fundamentalism, & local separatism) probably presages increasing Chinese influence in the region. Cultural affinity may also give Türkiye an edge.

  74. 74.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy: Yes, economically Russia has rapidly transitioned  from being the EU’s resource appendage to being China’s, w/ even greater dependence. However, “vassalage” suggests that Russia’s foreign policy will be dictated by China. That is not the case & will not be the case.

    The Sino-Russian entente is based on shared grievances w/ the current “international order” largely created by the West to the latter’s benefit (but they don’t have necessarily the same grievances about the same aspects of said “order”), & shared threat perception wrt the US. However,  China wants to modify elements of the “international order” to its benefit, Russia wants to overturn it altogether & benefit from the resulting chaos. China has ambitions as a world leader, Russia can only play the spoiler. Xi does not really care about Putin’s ambitions wrt Ukraine any more than Putin really cares about Xi’s wrt to Taiwan (& in any case the two have very different strategies & very different timelines for their respective ambitions).

  76. 76.

    ColoradoGuy

    Impossible not to notice the inversion of the Stalin/Mao relationship at the dawn of the Fifties … Stalin, victor of World II, unchallenged ruler of half of Europe, and Mao, the pupil of Stalin, new ruler of one of the poorest nations in the world, with no seat in the United Nations and recognized only by the Soviet Bloc.

    And now … Xi/Putin, almost exactly reversed. China powerful and ascendant, Russia falling further and further behind. Surely both XI and Putin were keenly aware of the historical resonance.

  77. 77.

    Hangö Kex

    YLE has a story of Zelenskyy’s Konstyantynivka / OKKO pit stop: https://yle.fi/a/74-20023709 (in Finnish, sharing it for the video clip which seemed hard to find on Reuters although it was credited to them).

    The text opines that the visit appears markedly more relaxed than Putin’s recent one to Mariupol; judging by the video clip this seems like a fair assessment. :)

    (To get past the cookie gauntlet with minimal concessions choose “Vain välttämättömät” or use the itsy globe icon (by “Suomeksi”) at to top of the pop-up for English).

  78. 78.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @ColoradoGuy Mao never thought of himself as Stalin’s understudy, though Stalin (& Khrushchev after him) certainly took a patronizing attitude toward the former, just as I am sure Putin does not see himself that way wrt Xi. However, Mao did not have many options other than seeking Soviet help in reconstruction, following a century of civil wars and foreign invasions, as the U.S. decided to follow Chiang Kai-Shek to Taiwan. Just as Putin has few options now.

  79. 79.

    CCL

    @Another Scott: thanks. The graphic artist in my life says it is a perfect illustration..story telling so subtle but perfect.  Wanted to know who did it. So I asked!

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