Before we jump in and get started just a housekeeping note. Last night in comments eclare was upset that I posted immediately after Anne Laurie posted, thereby bigfooting her and her post. Leaving aside that this is Balloon Juice, my curt reply, and several other piling on on my behalf, I want to make sure there’s a bit of explanation here. First, feeling like I’ve bigfooted someone else’s post is fine. Expressing it in the comments is fine. Please, everyone, we have enough stuff to actually argue about, let’s just let that go. eclare you are welcome to comment when and how you like, my apologies for being abrupt. Second, I do these nightly updates on top of my day job, which as you all know, because it’s in my Balloon Juice bio, is working as a national security professional. I don’t discuss that work here for a number or reasons, but basically I finish my day’s work and then start on these updates, which usually take somewhere between an hour to two hours to put together from start to finish. This is like adding two hours of work to my work day or two hours of work adjacent/related stuff to my work day. I made a commitment that as long as my boss says it’s okay to keep doing them, that I will make sure that we can all stand vigil every evening or night (or morning for our antipodean and Asian friends) to the Ukrainian’s defense of their state, their society, their culture, their families, their friends, their lives, and, quite frankly, the rest of us that live in what is usually defined as the Western world. Quite frankly it is the least we can do. But because I’m doing these on top of my full time work I have no time to do posts on anything else, no time to check into comment threads on other posts. Frankly, unless one of you or one of my fellow front pagers has asked if I saw post X or comment Y, I have not looked at or read another post on this site in 13 months and six days. I just don’t have the time, the energy, or the bandwidth. I have no idea who has posted what when, what posts are scheduled to publish at what times. My life is work; these updates; working out to stay fit; the doggos including nightly two mile 2o minute pace walks with them; a bit of reading or watching rugby or hockey to relax and divert myself a bit; and sleep. Up at 0 Dark Hundred every morning, asleep by 10(ish) every night. That’s it. So if I bigfoot your favorite front pager, now you know why; it is not intentional nor malicious. And for those that keep thanking me: thank you for the kind words, you are most welcome, I look forward to the day I don’t have to do these because Ukraine has won the war. Off to walk the dogs…
The Russians arrested Wall Street Journal Reporter Evan Gershkovich on charges of espionage:
The Lefortovo court has ordered Evan Gershkovich to be put under arrest. https://t.co/dYihkWlcVf
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 30, 2023
The Associated Press has details: (emphasis mine)
Russia’s security service arrested an American reporter for The Wall Street Journal on espionage charges, the first time a U.S. correspondent has been detained on spying accusations since the Cold War. The newspaper denied the allegations and demanded his release.
Evan Gershkovich, 31, was detained in Yekaterinburg, Russia’s fourth-largest city, about 1,670 kilometers (1,035 miles) east of Moscow. Russia’s Federal Security Service accused him of trying to obtain classified information.
Known by the acronym FSB, the service is the top domestic security agency and main successor to the Soviet-era KGB. It alleged that Gershkovich “was acting on instructions from the American side to collect information about the activities of one of the enterprises of the Russian military-industrial complex that constitutes a state secret.”
The Journal “vehemently denies the allegations from the FSB and seeks the immediate release of our trusted and dedicated reporter, Evan Gershkovich,” the newspaper said. “We stand in solidarity with Evan and his family.”
The sweeping campaign of repression is unprecedented since the Soviet era. Activists say it often means the very profession of journalism is criminalized, along with the activities of ordinary Russians who oppose the war.
Earlier this week, a Russian court convicted a father over social media posts critical of the war and sentenced him to two years in prison. His 13-year-old daughter was sent to an orphanage.
Gershkovich is the first American reporter to be arrested on espionage charges in Russia since September 1986, when Nicholas Daniloff, a Moscow correspondent for U.S. News and World Report, was arrested by the KGB. Daniloff was released without charge 20 days later in a swap for an employee of the Soviet Union’s United Nations mission who was arrested by the FBI, also on spying charges.
At a hearing Thursday, a Moscow court quickly ruled that Gershkovich would be kept behind bars pending the investigation.
While previous American detainees have been freed in prisoner swaps, a top Russian official said it was too early to talk about any such deal.
In Washington, the Biden administration said it had spoken with the Journal and Gershkovich’s family. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre condemned the arrest “in the strongest terms” and urged Americans to heed government warnings not to travel to Russia.
The State Department was in direct touch with the Russian government and seeking access to Gershkovich, Jean-Pierre said. The administration has no “specific indication” that journalists in Russia are being targeted, she said.
Gershkovich, who covers Russia, Ukraine and other ex-Soviet nations as a correspondent in the Journal’s Moscow bureau, could face up to 20 years in prison if convicted of espionage. Prominent lawyers noted that past investigations into espionage cases took a year to 18 months, during which time he may have little contact with the outside world.
The FSB noted that Gershkovich had accreditation from the Russian Foreign Ministry to work as a journalist, but ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova alleged that Gershkovich was using his credentials as cover for “activities that have nothing to do with journalism.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters: “It is not about a suspicion, it is about the fact that he was caught red-handed.”
Ivan Pavlov, a prominent Russian defense attorney who has worked on many espionage and treason cases, said Gershkovich’s case is the first criminal espionage charge against a foreign journalist in post-Soviet Russia.
“That unwritten rule not to touch accredited foreign journalists, has stopped working,” said Pavlov, a member of the First Department legal aid group.
Pavlov said the case against Gershkovich was built to give Russia “trump cards” for a future prisoner exchange and will likely be resolved “not by the means of the law, but by political, diplomatic means.”
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov ruled out any quick swap.
“I wouldn’t even consider this issue now because people who were previously swapped had already served their sentences,” Ryabkov said, according to Russian news agencies.
Much more at the link!
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Four hundred days of our defense against full-scale aggression is a colossal path that we have endured together – address by the President of Ukraine
30 March 2023 – 21:43
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
Four hundred days… Four hundred days of our defense against full-scale aggression.
This is a colossal path that we have endured . All together – everyone who fought and fights for Ukraine. Who took care and takes care about the state and Ukrainians. Who helped and helps our logistics. Who strengthened and strengthens Ukrainian resilience.
Ukraine went through the most terrifying days of that February. We survived this winter as well. There is a colossal effort behind these words…
We passed last spring, which turned the tide of this war in favor of our defense.
Last summer and autumn, we proved that the spring liberation of our northern regions was no accident. The battle for Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy regions… The return of the territories of our Kharkiv region, the return of Kherson, the defense of Bakhmut and Donbas in general – this is the heroism of Ukrainians that the world will not forget.
We are preparing our next steps, our active actions. We are preparing the approach of our victory.
What is the strength of Ukraine? If your intentions are good, the whole world will be on your side and help you.
Today, on the four hundredth day of resistance, full-scale resistance, I want to thank everyone in the world who stands with Ukraine. Who shares our interpretation of freedom. Who supports our pursuit of justice. Who has the same strong conviction that we, Ukrainians, have… the conviction that the world should be based on rules, on civilized rules – on the rules of humanity, respect and peace. That is why Ukraine will win.
Because freedom and justice, humanity and respect, peace deserved by the people must prevail.
I thank all our soldiers and sailors, all our sergeants and first sergeants, all our officers and generals. I thank each and every one who holds this front – the front of protecting the best that humanity has. The front of protecting the best that you and I have – our Ukraine.
United, invincible and forever free.
I thank everyone who is currently fighting! Each and every one who is fighting to protect themselves and brothers-in-arms in neighboring positions!
Thank you to everyone who cares about our brave warriors! Thank you to everyone who protects our cities and restores normal life in the areas where it was violated by Russia with its aggression and terror!
I also thank everyone who helps the daughters and sons, wives and husbands, mothers and fathers of our people, soldiers and civilians, whose lives were taken away by this war, by Russia!
Ukraine will win at the front. Ukraine will win in recovery. Ukraine will win in restoring justice.
We will not leave a single trace of Russia on our land. And we will not leave any enemy unpunished either. We are preparing news about this.
This day, like any of the four hundred, was as active as possible for me.
Communication with commanders, with intelligence. Meetings regarding the internal situation. I made another appeal to the parliament of the partner country – to the Austrian parliament. And I thank Austria for the fact that Ukraine was heard. A productive meeting with the delegation of the German defense enterprise Rheinmetall AG… I am thankful to our partners for their willingness to cooperate with us in an even more meaningful way.
Tomorrow will also be active. To the maximum.
We will do everything so that the day comes sooner when I can thank you, dear Ukrainians, for our victory!
Glory to Ukrainian heroes!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is the machine translation of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s most recent operational update from their Telegram channel:
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situations in Avdiivka and Bakhmut:
AVDIIVKA AXIS /2200 UTC 29 MAR/ RU forces were rebuffed at Novokalynove, Krasbohorivka, Stepove, Sieverne and Pervomaiske. UKR forces conducted counter-battery fire against RU artillery and carried out a precision strike against RU logistics on Donetsk city. pic.twitter.com/qJx75hLzDd
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 29, 2023
BAKHMUT CITY /1245 UTC 30 MAR/ RU troops continue to improve tactical positions in heavy urban fighting. UKR artillery conducted counter-battery activity; RU losses include 12 artillery systems. While UKR maintains LOCS, RU is registering gains in urban fighting. pic.twitter.com/PnNFbUMV2W
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 30, 2023
BAKHMUT AXIS /1145 UTC 30 MAR/ RU forces have consolidated gains in the N urban areas of Bakhmut. UKR reports breaking up 28 RU attacks during the last 12 hours. RU losses included: 1 main battle tank, 8 IFVs, 12 artillery pieces hit by UKR counter battery fire and 560 RU KIA. pic.twitter.com/0gdZb2pws6
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 30, 2023
Kharkiv:
In these minutes Russia is attacking Kharkiv with S-300 from Belgorod. At least 6 explosions are reported.
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 30, 2023
Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff, Wales:
the fans started to sing putin-khuilo song which made the russian commentator go silent 😅
2/2— Mariia Kramarenko (@KramarenkoMari3) March 30, 2023
Tallyho!
Wings for Ukraine – Wings for Freedom!
🎥 @CinC_AFU pic.twitter.com/72msebGAto
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 30, 2023
This morning, EU President von der Leyen gave a speech on EU-China relations to the Mercatur Institute:
Noah Barkin of the Rhodium Group and the German Marshall Fund of the US (GMFUS), whose specialty is the PRC’s objectives regarding and interaction with Europe, has some analysis:
Von der Leyen has delivered the speech on China that Europe has been waiting for. It is a clear-eyed, confident vision for the relationship that acknowledges China has changed & that Europe’s response must too, with an economic security strategy at its core. My quick takeaways:
— Noah Barkin (@noahbarkin) March 30, 2023
3) Europe needs to focus on economic de-risking (not decoupling). Most trade is not risky. But she promises tougher approach to technology transfer/dual use goods + ideas on EU economic security strategy by year-end. This includes narrow outbound investment regime …
— Noah Barkin (@noahbarkin) March 30, 2023
5) Von der Leyen is throwing down the gauntlet to those in Europe who still harbor illusions about partnership w/China. These include Macron, w/whom she will travel to Beijing next week. It is a bold move but her message is overdue. The reactions in 🇫🇷 & 🇩🇪 will be interesting
— Noah Barkin (@noahbarkin) March 30, 2023
The Economist is reporting that Russian hackers are preparing for their own spring offensive.
Russia’s cyber-offensive last year was fast, furious—and underwhelming. In it, hackers conducted perhaps the largest ever assault on computer networks. Ukraine, well-prepared and supported by foreign tech companies and allies, parried many of these blows, keeping communications and crucial government services online against all expectations. But the cyberwar, like the physical one, is evolving.
Russian cyber-forces, portrayed as lumbering bumblers, have in fact adapted to circumstances, argues Dan Black, who served in NATO’s cyber-threat analysis branch until December and now works for Mandiant, a cyber-security firm within Google. During its offensive in eastern Ukraine between April and July, Russia expanded its cyber-operations in Poland and eastern Europe to collect intelligence on arms shipments to Ukraine. The GRU, Russia’s military-intelligence agency, began using more malware from criminal markets to augment fancier home-made tools.
In a paper for the IISS, a think-tank, Mr Black says Russian forces showed signs of “a more prepared and reinvigorated cyber-programme” from October, during Ukrainian offensives in the south and east. That included heightened cyber-attacks against energy, water and logistics targets in parallel with drone and missile strikes on Ukraine’s power grid. This pointed to a co-ordinated strategy to ratchet up cross-domain pressure, he argues. A report published by Ukraine’s main cyber-security agency on March 8th showed that “critical” and “high-severity” cyber-incidents, the two most serious sorts, leapt in December, reaching the highest level since the first week of the war.
That pressure is still building. On March 15th Microsoft Threat Intelligence, which monitors Ukrainian networks, warned that the GRU was “preparing for a renewed destructive campaign”, including reconnaissance against important targets. Its deployment of “wiper” malware, which destroys data, was “reminiscent of the early days of the invasion”. Between January and mid-February hackers working for all three main Russian intelligence services tried to penetrate government and military targets in 17 European countries, paving the way for either espionage or disruption—access to a network allows both.
Russian cyber-doctrine also puts a premium on information warfare. In November a website began publishing private messages from two senior officials in Moldova—a classic “hack-and-leak” operation akin to the one the GRU conducted ahead of America’s presidential elections in 2016. On March 10th the White House publicly accused Russia of trying to foment a coup in Moldova. Recent Russian propaganda has also spread false claims that Ukrainian refugees abroad were being extradited and conscripted into Ukraine’s army.
More at the link!
Lithuania’s Regional Cyber Defense Center has issued a new report on Russia’s use of offensive cyber operations during their re-invasion of Ukraine. Here is the link to the pdf. And here are the conclusions and way forward, though I also recommend reading the recommendations for mitigation on pp. 21-22:
Conclusions and Way Forward
The following key conclusions can be drawn from the analysis of Russia’s cyber offensive operations during the conflict in Ukraine:
1. All available evidence indicates that Russia has conducted a coordinated and broad cyber-campaign intended to provide its forces with an early advantage during its war in Ukraine. Some reporting showed a huge increase in exploits on the first day. The intent appears to have been to create disorder and overwhelm the Ukrainian defense. This was a wide-ranging attack using the full suite of Russian cyber capabilities to disrupt Ukraine, but it was not a success.2. Russian Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) actors and other unattributed threats have conducted destructive attacks, espionage operations, or both, while the Russian military forces are attacking the country by land, air, and sea. It is unclear whether the computer network operators and physical forces are just pursuing a common set of priorities independently or they are actively coordinating. However, the Ukrainian experience demonstrates that cyber and kinetic actions have been taken simultaneously to degrade the Ukrainian Government and military functions.
3. When it comes to the different types of cyber-attacks, Ukraine’s experience demonstrates that DDoS has been as popular as never. These attacks represent a broader pattern in cyberspace, the objective of the adversary to undermine the public’s trust in state institutions and critical service providers. Most of the destructive attacks were aimed at organizations in critical infrastructure sectors that could have had a negative second order effects on the Government, military, economy, and people. Their primary targets were websites of the Ukrainian Government, energy and telecom service providers, financial institutions, and media outlets, however, the cyber-attacks encompassed most of the critical sectors.
4. As the war in Ukraine continues, there is a likelihood that cyber incidents will spill over into other countries. As a matter of fact, Russia has already expanded its destructive cyber-operations against the countries which have come together to defend Ukraine. This spill-over effect has already been seen in some countries, especially NATO members. The focus on the United States has been followed shortly by the activity targeting NATO members that are the closest to Ukraine geographically, including the Baltic States and Poland. For example, Lithuania’s biggest state-owned energy company Ignitis Group has been targeted by a massive DDoS attack as part of the ongoing campaign by the pro-Russian hacking group Killnet106.
5. The lessons learned in Ukraine call for a coordinated and comprehensive mitigation response to strengthen the defenses against the full range of cyber destructive, espionage, and influence operations. This response should increase collective capabilities to better (1) detect, (2) defend against, (3) disrupt, and (4) deter foreign cyber threats. Please note that the findings and conclusions of the Report are not final and will be amended with additional information and lessons learned as the conflict progresses.
Finally, Eado Hecht of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (BESA) has issued a report on lessons learned from the Russian re-invasion of Ukraine for the Israeli Defense Forces:
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 2,189, March 26, 2023
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The war in Ukraine is an example of modern high-intensity warfare. As such, it offers a number of lessons that can be learned about the capabilities, limitations, and requirements of armies conducting such warfare. New technology and methods have added capabilities, but have not rendered more traditional methods of warfare and technology obsolete. The IDF should learn to merge the new with the old by acquiring competence in new technology and tactics while maintaining technical and tactical competence in the veteran ”basics”.
This article will point out a few of the more important lessons the IDF can learn from the Russo-Ukraine War. Before discussing those lessons, however, a caveat must be stated. The political and military situations of Israel, Russia, and Ukraine are different, so not every lesson being taught by the warfare in Ukraine is relevant to Israel. Also, some lessons might be relevant “as is” while others might require adaptation.
A Shift in Expectations
There has been discussion for decades in Western armies and academia, as well as in Israel, on the changing characteristics of warfare. It has been proposed that these changes represent not merely an evolution but a revolution, in that changes are occurring not only in the characteristics of warfare but perhaps even in the nature of war itself. Some of this discussion is purely theoretical, while some is based on analysis of wars conducted in the 1990s and early 2000s. The year-long war in Ukraine has added much fuel to this debate.
Over the late 1990s and early 2000s, the IDF gradually adopted an extreme view of the transformation occurring in warfare and the adjustments it needed to make to its own composition and operational art. Future wars, its senior commanders believed, would no longer include major maneuvers of massed formations conducting high-intensity warfare (inaccurately dubbed “old”, “classic”, or “traditional” warfare), but would be purely low-intensity warfare with the enemy invariably employing methods of guerrilla warfare and terrorism. Accordingly, it was argued, the IDF should be reorganized and retrained to focus on counter-guerrilla and counter-terrorist operations (just as inaccurately dubbed “new” warfare).[1] The conquering of territory was deemed irrelevant and even politically and militarily counter-productive. Wars would be decided by an exchange of fire with a minimum of maneuver or by small forces conducting counter-guerrilla raids, ambushes, and patrols.
Furthermore, argued proponents of this view, if by chance some enemy attempted to conduct “old-style” warfare against Israel, it would be easily defeated by the new technologies of surveillance systems and precise long-range weapons. Mechanized formations attacking these new capabilities would be rapidly decimated and were therefore no longer viable on the future battlefield. Statistical weapons were virtually obsolete and should be almost entirely discarded by the IDF, as should the majority of its armored vehicles.[2] New non-lethal options such as offensive cyber operations would disarm and dislocate enemy forces and even the enemy’s political entity with a minimum of bloodshed, compelling the enemy to desist from its attacks on Israel.
The Reality in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine has obviously not met any of these expectations. Two very large armies employing large mechanized and infantry formations backed by significant statistical fire capabilities are engaged in offensive and defensive maneuvers. They have fought and are still fighting to control territory and have both suffered enormous casualties to achieve their goals.
The first and perhaps most important lesson of this conflict, and the lesson from which many of the others stem, is that this type of warfare can still occur and national armies must be prepared for it.
One could argue that this is a result of the fact that both armies in question are outdated. Neither studied the new reality or adopted the latest technologies, doctrine, and training, so the conflict in which they are engaged is not a good example of current and future trends in warfare. This is true, but only to a certain extent. Both armies have employed some new technological capabilities (cyber warfare, a wide variety of remotely piloted aircraft, and long-range guided munitions) that were supposed to revolutionize the character of warfare. Despite this, both armies continue to employ and reinforce their forces with supposedly obsolete technologies (artillery, armored personnel carriers and tanks) in order to sustain their military effort.
Russia’s massive cyber warfare effort achieved only partial success and failed to neutralize or sufficiently disrupt the functioning of Ukraine’s state and military apparatuses. Ukraine’s use of armed remotely piloted aircraft and advanced anti-tank missiles slowed Russian mechanized formations and caused them severe casualties (though not in excess of similar wars in the past), but did not halt them, despite the tactical incompetence prominently displayed by these forces. The Russians were finally halted deep in Ukraine by concentrated close-combat actions and enormous statistical artillery concentrations.[3]
Some of the fighting in Ukraine looks very similar to the battles of WWII and even WWI, even with the addition of many modern technologies of communications, remotely piloted aircraft, and advanced guided munitions to the even more numerous “old” weapons being employed.
Possible Lessons from the Ukraine War for the IDF
In the war in Ukraine, most of the offensive actions are being conducted by the Russians, though the Ukrainians have conducted some as well. The causes of success or failure of these offensive actions must be studied to derive lessons relevant to the IDF, even if they require adaptation.
The first and most prominent lesson of the war in Ukraine is the necessity for technical and tactical competence and proficiency of combat forces in high-intensity warfare. Such warfare can still occur, and it requires different skills than the more common low-intensity warfare. Those skills include the ability to conduct, from the battalion to the division level, highly coordinated combined-arms operations against a massed enemy rather than against scattered teams of guerrillas or terrorists.
During the Second Lebanon War, the IDF exhibited a serious degradation of its proficiency in these skills. Creating and maintaining these skills requires first, acknowledgment that they are needed; second, a doctrine focusing on them; and third, sufficient training to implement that doctrine. In the wake of the tactical debacles of the Second Lebanon War, the IDF has improved in all three of these areas, but many Israeli observers contend that it is still far from its past level of proficiency.
Another possible lesson of the war in Ukraine is that while new technologies are very useful, they are not wonder-weapons that transcend veteran principles of warfare. Cyber offensives can be countered by cyber defense, redundancy, and alternate non-cyber-dependent equipment; massed use of remotely piloted aircraft can be countered by new anti-aircraft weapons and new electronic warfare equipment; and while precision fire is efficient, it does not provide everything ground forces need from their fire support. Though the rival armies in Ukraine might be somewhat deficient in precision fire, it has not proven a total game-changer, and older fire and maneuver weapons are still providing essential capabilities. The lesson for the IDF is that it has moved too fast and too far in reducing its arsenal of tanks and statistical artillery (both guns and mortars).
A third lesson is that troop numbers still count. True combat power amounts to a multiplication of quantity by quality and the will to fight. This means that the massive reduction in IDF reserve ground combat units might leave it with insufficient forces to conduct high-intensity operations–especially if a high-intensity war involves more than one front and continues for many weeks or months rather than the days or few weeks of the past. Furthermore, given that the new technologies are extremely expensive and the older technologies have proven to still provide worthwhile and essential capabilities, it is not necessary to provide every unit in the large IDF with all the latest technology. Certain new technologies might be more important than others. If some are allocated to less fully equipped units (for example, the basic active anti-missile protection system for armored vehicles), the total difference in combat capability would prove less dramatic than previously believed.
A vital lesson is the need to provide robustness and redundancy in communications. A military unit exists only if it has effective and stable communications between its component sub-units. Otherwise it is just a collection of soldiers and equipment functioning independently according to individual estimates of the situation and combative spirit.
The IDF has been computerizing its communications more and more in an attempt to create a networked force. If successful, this new technology will dramatically speed up the transfer of reports and commands, creating rapid responses with fire or maneuver to every new situation or target. However, this technology is also more susceptible to electronic and cyber attack and is also less mobile. The Ukrainian computerized command and control system was disrupted by a Russian cyber attack on the first day of the war. However, Kyiv had prepared for this eventuality by maintaining older systems that were less susceptible to such interference. This enabled the Ukrainian army to continue to function effectively, if less efficiently.
[1] Any serious perusal of the history of warfare shows that the vast majority of wars have always been low-intensity – i.e., focused on guerrilla and terror strategies and tactics. The so-called “new wars” are in fact the oldest and most common type of warfare and have existed ever since humans began to fight each other.
[2] According to public figures, over the past two decades the IDF has discarded most of its tanks and artillery and shut down a large number of formations.
[3] In the words of one Ukrainian senior officer: “Anti-tank missiles slowed the Russians down, but what killed them was our artillery. That was what broke their units.”
Here’s the link to the full pdf. There’s much more really interesting stuff there. Stuff being a technical term…
That’s enough for tonight.
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Sparkedcat
JFC. Lefortovo. Lubyanka. Is there anyway we can aid Evan Gershkovich?
Elizabelle
Not to do with Ukraine, but wanted to note the Black Hawk helicopters crash in Kentucky last night during a training exercise. Nine service members dead, in two ‘copters. Fort Campbell, Kentucky.
Keeping their families and loved ones in mind tonight.
Anonymous At Work
Let me lead off the comments by saying that I never in a million years imagined that an employee of Rupert Murdoch would be arrested as a spy by Russia. By Ukraine, maybe. The US doing so wasn’t beyond the possible, either. What’s the billionaire employers of Piers Morgan and Tucker Carlson going to do?
And I have no problem with people cross-covering topics. I mean, free time blogging is free time blogging.
Baud
zeecube
Funny you’d be talking about big footing today of all days. Anywho, your posts are much appreciated.
CaseyL
I’d refuse any assignment that meant I had to go to Russia. Even if it cost me my job. Better to be unemployed than in a Russian prison.
NutmegAgain
Adam–thank you for the time, commitment, knowledge & information. I’m quite sure I’m not alone in my gratitude, for your hundreds (!) of posts and for the excellent community-within-a-community that has grown up around them.
NutmegAgain
@Anonymous At Work: Agreed. I even forgot that Murdoch had acquired WSJ, but I thought, really? they went after the guy from the WSJ?? Anyhow, he’s in my thoughts since there’s not so much I can do.
West of the Rockies
Another 564 RU KIA reported today. That would be a HUGE story in the US! I know Russians are largely shielded from real news, but presumably 560 mothers or wives will be encountering this news soon. They’ll all tell someone. Will the slow-trickle erosion of the people’s support of Putin and the war have an effect?
Also, we hear that the Russian economy is not fabulous, and that they have an aging, alcoholic population. Over 160,000 Russian males have been permanently removed from the list of those who might still reproduce. Tens of thousands of other young people have fled the country (though some may return). All these deaths, all the returning dismembered soldiers with vicious PTSD… the societal drinking and stress and ensuing intergenerational trauma that will occur… it will further erode Russian society.
I’d love to know what the long-term impact of Putin’s folly will be.
Alison Rose
I’m frightened to think of what Gershkovich may be enduring. Not surprising that in russia, “journalism” would be seen as “spying”.
This was something nice: “Students from a local school of a small town in Japan planted a field of sunflowers, made oil from them, sold everything and donated the funds for the needs of Ukraine.” (It’s just an FB post with a couple of photos, but one of the photos is people standing in the field of giant sunflowers, and it’s very sweet.
Thank you as always, Adam, especially for giving us something on such a slow news day. Hardy har.
scribbler
@Alison Rose: Thank you Alison. That was lovely.
Anoniminous
What in the name of Holy Saint Rommel do these fools think they’re doing?
As @adsum_12 put it:
“Traveling in column into enemy territory is suicide. No infantry support, no artillery support. No reconnaissance. Reckless and suicidal. This isn’t an army.”
Anoniminous
@West of the Rockies:
516 casualties is approximately the infantry component of 50 of the new Assault Detachments we’ve hearing about.
Meet the new Charlie Foxtrots, same as the old Charlie Foxtrots.
trucmat
My first reaction to the arrest of a US reporter is that Russia has stumbled because it helps make the case that Russia is rogue and our enemy. Assuming though that there’s a hidden motive what might it be? Perhaps they are setting up an Iranian hostage situation in which they will try to make Biden appear impotent. In that case the reporter will not be released until 2025 at earliest. The imprisoned Murdoch reporter will be brought up nightly by Fox News using the Ted Koppel Nightline template to keep pressure on Biden
Of course they’ve taken so many ill considered actions that it may be just what it seems and is just to set up a prisoner exchange. I’d expect though that as usual Tucker and gang will use it as a reason to blame Biden for the sins of Russia.
Chetan Murthy
@Anonymous At Work: Do you remember when Fox News reporters Pierre Zakrzewski, 55, and Oleksandra Kuvshinova, 24 were killed by incoming fire (in Horenka, outside Kyiv, so likely RU fire) back in March 2022 ? Rupe has blood on his hands.
Elizabelle
Day 400. Wow.
Also off topic, kind of, but I hope DOJ and a lot of the intelligence community is looking much harder at Russian ties to Trump’s 2016 “victory.” No one should get away with that one.
Anoniminous
One year ago I’d have laughed my ass off if someone told me Finland would join NATO.
Today Finland has been approved for NATO membership.
Putin – Master Strategist, Military Commander, Statesman, Diplomat
Chetan Murthy
@Anoniminous: The *pile* of grenades in the vid!
Mr. Bemused Senior
Adam, regarding your comments at the top, you are a true gentleman and I know (having read many comment threads) I speak for many when I join in saying thank you.
dm
Posted in Anne’s thread, but it fits here, too. Over on Mastodon I saw a photo of a classified ad that read:
Gvg
@Anoniminous: I don’t know but that Twitter link you provided has commenters saying Turkey just voted to approve Finland joining NATO and they were the last no, so now Finland should be joining. I think that is pretty big news if confirmed.
topclimber
Hecht’s analysis of the war’s lessons for the Israelis seems to call for more tanks and an expanded IDF.
That may be tough if Bibi comes to the US looking for those tanks, given Biden’s understandable frustrations at this f—ker in general, and in terms of subverting a democracy we have supported for 70 years. And building that army is likely to piss off yet more secular Israelis who carry the load while the Haredi skate.
On the other hand, I am not sure who threatens Israel with a conventional attack. Not Egypt, not Iraq, and not likely Iran. It ain’t 1969 anymore.
Gin & Tonic
Here is russia in one tweet. Dude was sentenced to 14 years in prison, in 2020, for murder. Last year he got out by enlisting in Wagner. In March he got out and went home. On Sunday murdered somebody else.
Chetan Murthy
@topclimber: I thought the Israeli Merkava tank was well-regarded ?
Gin & Tonic
@Gvg: Yes, Turkiye’s Parliament voted unanimously to support Finland’s bid. It’s all over but the shouting.
Anoniminous
@Chetan Murthy:
Good to see. Hand grenades are a vital munition in trench warfare.
I swear to god the machine gun with its barrel pointed up in a square case in the middle of the pile of machine guns at 0:15 looks like a German MG-42 from WW 2.
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: And these are the family values putin-groupies in the US love to tout about their mother russia?
Anoniminous
@Gvg:
It’s all over the news so …. I guess we can say they’ve got a clear road if they decide to travel it. There’s been some speculation Finland won’t join if Sweden is blackballed by Turkey.
Roger Moore
@trucmat:
It’s pretty obvious, and Adam made the point above: he’s there to be traded for someone the Russians want freed. It’s one of those things they do.
Geminid
@Anoniminous: Finland will join NATO now. Sweden will likely be just a few months behind them.
Anoniminous
@Roger Moore:
A Left handed reliever and a player to be named later?
Chetan Murthy
@Anoniminous: there’s an RU illegal couple in Slovenia that’s in custody, and that shitbird Cherkasov in Brazil that tried to infiltrate the International Criminal Court by way of Johns Hopkins (IIRC). Probably other RU agents we’ve got here and there.
Jay
@Anoniminous:
MG3, a Cold War variant based off the MG-42, standard in the German Army and other NATO allies.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MG_3_machine_gun
Anoniminous
@Geminid:
Sweden and Turkey have “issues” regarding the latter’s treatment, e.g., murder, of Kurds in and outside of Turkey. Erdoğan may well decide to veto Sweden’s application.
topclimber
@Chetan Murthy: I am sure it beats anything the Palestinians have.
Good as it is, who will pay for it? Uncle Sam has been the one for a long, long time.
Chetan Murthy
@topclimber: Ahhh, you’re referring the way we’ve been subsidizing Israel’s military for generations. Yeah, that might be a prickly point, if Bibi insists on turning them into a dictatorship.
Geminid
@Anoniminous:I’ve been following this matter also, and I think it’s unlikely that Erdogan will continue to block Sweden’s admission much longer. Hungary will probably go along as well.
And Erdogan may not have any say in the matter anyway. Polling shows a tight race between him and the opposition candidate in the May 14 Presidential election. Erdogan’s opponent has said he favors Sweden’s admission to NATO.
Bill Arnold
Between the RUSI “Preliminary Lessons from Russia’s Unconventional Operations During the Russo-Ukrainian War, February 2022–February 2023” report and tonight’s links, some mind-engaging material (“stuff”:-). Thank you.
Hoping that Israel will break out of its objectively-pro-genocide “neutrality” at least a bit.
J R in WV
No amount of money will entice me to enter Russia!
Adam, thanks for all you do to educate us on the progress of the war in Ukraine! Don’t overdo it…
Anoniminous
@Jay:
So it’s a Ukrainian trophy weapon of a Russian trophy weapon of an MG-3 given to Ukraine by a NATO member?
The MG-3 is an update of the MG-42 with – IIRC – a change to NATO standard 7.62mm and the major change being a wind-down from 25 rounds per second (!) to a more reasonable 15 RPS. How anybody managed to keep on target with an MG-42 in its light machine gun configuration is a mystery to me.
Just for fun —-
MG-42
vs
MG-3
Traveller
First, I note that I am nobody of any import at all…that being said, I was in Russia in 1993, hopefully to teach, (what the heck, why not was my attitude), sponsored by the University, really fine people, but, alas, I in-advisedly got into a strange but heated argument over Russia’s claims to Alaska and Northern California…
Maybe food poisoning, maybe Anaphylactic Shock, maybe something more sinister but I badly hallucinated and ended up wandering the streets of St. Petersburg and from there to a Russian Military Hospital…very strange and they even then did not have disposable needles but rather used an autoclave to sterilize needles…well!
I managed to pay (a bribe?) check myself out and past the military guards to make my way back to the University the next day where my sponsors were very worried….and immediately put me on the night train to Moscow and a morning flight to NYC.
Waiting in that in-between-land past check out through customs but waiting for a flight was seemingly eternal…(someone above commented that they would resign a job rather than go to Russia…it would be a wise decision and heart goes out to WSJ reporter…damn, unlucky to be in Russia in this period of time that we are living through). Sigh…life.
Geminid
@Anoniminous: And I think you have got the issues between Turkey and Sweden backwards. Sweden isn’t delaying its membership because it has problems with Turkiye’s treatment of its Kurdish population. Turkiye is delaying Sweden’s accession to NATO because of material support Kurdish expatriots in Sweden have given to PKK fighters who’ve killed hundreds of Turkish soldiers and policeman in the years since a ceasefire broke down in 2015. Sweden signed a memorandum of understanding last year pledging to tighten up enforcement of its laws regarding support for armed insurgents.
Anoniminous
@Geminid:
It would be good if Erdoğan lost. The new guy could hardly be worse.
Sweden joining NATO is even more mind-blowing than Finland joining. They’ve had a policy of strict Neutrality since 1809.
Anoniminous
@Geminid:
I know that. My comment was edited from a profanity laced Not Family Friendly rant about Turkey and its treatment of the Kurds in Turkey and Syria.
Lyrebird
To me it’s related at least to what Adam said about bearing witness at least for a little part of our day to what people in Ukr. are going through, including what their gold-star moms and dads and spouses are going through. And some of those tragic losses will be from fierce battles, and some will inevitnbly be from tragic accidents in training and other circumstances that don’t fit into a movie script.
Ruckus
@West of the Rockies:
I’d love to know what the long-term impact of Putin’s folly will be.
You can be guaranteed that it won’t be good for anyone.
Bill Arnold
@Anoniminous:
Re Erdoğan, heartwarming that he’s in political trouble.
Here is polling information from 2 days ago:
https://www.euronews.com/2023/03/14/turkey-opinion-poll-tracker-erdogan-vs-kilicdaroglu
Shalimar
@West of the Rockies: It has been reported repeatedly that the vast majority of the Russian Army is composed of various minorities, and Moscow in particular has almost no representation. I really don’t think Putin and the rest of the government gives a damn about all of those non-Russian mothers.
Bill Arnold
@Anoniminous:
You’re not alone.
I self-censor at least one comment out of three on this site. (Usually not profanity, though.)
Geminid
@Anoniminous: No one’s stopping you from cussing out Erdogan and Turkiye if you want to. But I thought you were projecting your animus towards Erdogan onto Sweden’s policy makers, and I think you should speak for yourself and let them speak for themselves.
This situation is analogous to that between the US and the UK during the war between Britain and the IRA towards the end of the last century. Irish Americans were giving material support to the IRA and Britain didn’t like that one bit. They did not have the leverage over the US that Turkiye has over Sweden right now, but if it they had they would have used it like Turkiye is doing.
Now, one man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter, and you are entitled to root for the PKK. I don’t know why you expect Erdogan to see it that way, though.
West of the Rockies
@Shalimar:
Moskovi Russians: vile cowards.
Jay
@Anoniminous:
the purpose of the MG-42 and the MG-34 was to suppress enemy infantry and fire, through sheer volume, not accuracy. In a standard WWII German Infantry squad, the riflemen were really just ammo carriers for the MG crew.
Where you could take sniper shots with a Bren gun, there was no way you could keep an entire company hugging dirt across a 1,000 yard front. The MG-42 and MG-34 could, just because of the random bullet effect.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MG_42
Andrya
@Geminid: It’s a bit more complicated than that. The PKK is indeed a terrorist organization, but Turkiye isn’t just demanding that Sweden crack down on financial contributions to the PKK- Turkiye is demanding that Sweden extradite “militants” that Turkiye says are Kurdish terrorists, but this may or may not be true. And they absolutely would not get a fair trial in Turkiye.
Last time I checked, Turkiye was also demanding that the US extradite Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen whom the Turkish government says was the mastermind of the alleged 2016 attempted coup. US courts have said that there is no sufficient evidence that Gulen was involved in the (alleged) attempted coup.
Full disclosure: there are Kurdish folk, refugees from serious oppression in Turkiye, in my extended family, so I confess I am not objective. They all say that it isn’t safe for Kurds to organize politically or promote Kurdish culture, non-violently, inside Turkiye. Article 301 of the Turkish Penal Code makes it a crime to “insult Turkiye”. That’s obviously so vague that no one can be sure they are not violating it unless they stay silent or are pro-Erdogan.
Chetan Murthy
@Shalimar: a-yup: https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/upfmkg/map_of_dead_soldiers_per_capita_in_russian/
[there’s a color-coded map at the link]
Jay
@West of the Rockies:
it’s a bit more complicated than that. In Saint Petersburg and Moscow, you have a much better chance of connections, or money, to avoid conscription, and the economy there is such that financial inducements, for many people, are less than their normal paycheck.
Rural Moscovia however, has few jobs, they pay garbage, there is little in the way of infrastructure like indoor toilets, hardpan roads, so who wouldn’t want to take a promise of a paycheck and a looted washing machine, (even though you have no running water).
One of the NAFO guys has started posting “real” shots of Moscovia outside of Saint Petersburg and Moscow under the caption #whereiscivilization.
Origuy
Putin’s government is focusing on what really matters to them.
Pussy Riot’s Nadya Tolokonnikova Is Placed on Russia’s Most Wanted List
And here’s a reason to go to Tulsa.
Pussy Riot Named Woody Guthrie Prize 2023 Honoree, Set to Perform ‘Riot Days’ for the First Time in U.S.
Carlo Graziani
@Geminid:
That leverage only exists so long as Turkiye is willing to settle for a price that Sweden and the rest of NATO are willing to pay to end its obstruction to the alliance’s highest political priority. Should it become clear that Erdogan plans to stick to his maximalist demands, that leverage will vanish. At which point we would expect to see a writing off by NATO of the (undoubted) strategic benefits from Turkiye’s membership and cooperation, and (for example) unambiguous preference for Greek security concerns over Turkish ones, and a far more confrontational U.S. posture in Syria.
Whereupon it would be Turkiye’s dilemma whether to appease NATO or leave it, thereby risking its security vis-a-vis its large, aggressive neighbor, with which it can have no assurance of a long-term cooperative relationship given the irreducible fact of strategic rivalry over control of the Black Sea.
I think Erdogan would fold.
Geminid
@Andrya: Turkiye has been demanding the US extradite Gulen for years now, but I don’t think they expect us ever to hand him over. I do not think they expect Sweden to extradite those Kurds either. I think Erdogan is driving the hardest bargain he can and even more so, wants to look like he is to the Turkish electorate.
I’m pretty certain that Sweden will not extradite any of the people Erdogan is demanding. But from statements I’ve seen the last few weeks from the Swedish Prime Minister, the German Chancellor, the head of NATO, and US officials, I think they still believe Turkiye will greenlight Sweden’s membership before the year is out, maybe even by this July’s NATO meeting.
Chetan Murthy
@Origuy: Not *enough* reason.
Geminid
@Carlo Graziani: Do you really think this dispute will come to that extremity? I don’t.
YY_Sima Qian
von der Leyen & Macron are scheduled to visit China next week, & there has been some effort at trying to forge a common European approach to China, this speech is an effort along those lines. Achieving European unity, as w/ every topic where European unity is desirable, will not likely be easy. The spectrum ranges from Hungary/Greece/Spain/Portugal at the relatively “China friendly” end, to France/Germany at the “European strategic autonomy in China relations” spot, to Italy/Poland/the Netherlands at the increasingly skeptical, & the Baltics/Czechia/Denmark being the most “China skeptical”. For the others China simply is not something there are strong feelings about.
von der Leyen is often seen in the EU as being the most Atlanticist of EU leaders, & sometimes criticized for being overly ready to align w/ the Biden Administration as opposed to asserting European interests. The content of this speech reflects the challenge of corralling the EU cats on a common strategy wrt China, acceptable to all of its members, as well as likely responding to some of that criticism. Of course, the European Commission is not the only player in EU diplomacy, & member states will continue to exercise their own judgment, often to the exasperation of Brussels & DC.
My impression is that Noah Barkin tends to reflect the Atlanticist end of the spectrum among European views. Here is a slightly different & more detailed take from Moritz Rudolf at Yale. There are a range of views in Europe, a wide spectrum between lock step alignment w/ the US at one end & “see no evil, hear no evil” at the other.
von der Leyen’s speech is probably something Biden should have delivered wrt to China at least a year ago. The content largely aligns w/ the Biden Administration’s stated intentions vis-a-vis China, but has not been able to execute as the the Sino-US relations is fundamentally broken at this moment, in a way Sino-EU relations is not, likely because China & the US are rivals at a fundamental level that China & the EU are not. Furthermore, the China discourse in the US is much more unhinged than in Europe, despite the increasing European skepticism toward China, & there the reactionary right wing in European has not yet played the China card in their populist appeals in the way the US GOP has since Trump. There are forces in the US eager to get on w/ a Cold War w/ China, not so much in the EU.
Andrya
@Geminid: It’s not quite that benign. Erdogan undoubtedly knows that neither Sweden nor the US will extradite his political opponents absent any real evidence of terrorism- but his efforts communicate to his non-violent political opponents, and to non-violent advocates for building Kurdish identity- “Don’t think you will ever be safe! If you cross me, and then flee to Europe or the US for asylum, I will claw you back!”
Geminid
@Andrya: I don’t think I characterized Erdogan’s position as “benign.” I just said it wasn’t as bad as you made it out to be, when you said he was using his leverage to get these people extradited.
Andrya
@Geminid: I agree that you did not use the word benign. You did characterize Erdogan’s actions as an empty threat, “not gonna happen, so no big deal”. For people living in a country without any effective enforcement of impartial laws, attempts to extradite political opponents and advocates for a minority culture are realistically terrifying.
coin operated
+1 for everything you do Adam
@Anonymous At Work:
Had the exact same thought. Arresting someone from the most pro-Russian media empire in the US is outer-limits-level weird.
Carlo Graziani
@Geminid: Not really. Erdogan is no idiot. He can work all this out himself. So I basically agree that he’ll settle for an achievable price, and forget that he asked for extradition.
Chetan Murthy
@Jay: Jay, your analysis is one possible scenario. Another, that many analysts I’ve read subscribe to, is that Putin is *assiduous* in not imposing the war’s human cost on people in European Russia, and especially the big cities of European Russia, b/c that’s where revolutions start. Evidence of this is (for instance) that he’s resisted mobilizations until forced to it; that the acknowledged per capita death rate (among soldiers deployed to Ukraine) in the Moscow region is 50x lower than (e.g.) Buryatia.
Sure, some of this is due to Muscovites being richer, so they can afford the lawyers and such to protect their kids. But there are poorer people in Moscow too, and somehow they don’t end up in Ukraine. Or at least, not enough of them to appreciably show up in statistics. Literally, the *acknowledged* death rate in Buryatia was >2/1000 residents, where in Moscow it was 1/100k residents. This I got from Denys Davydov’s latest video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkA-7myGPhw
Geminid
@Andrya: I did not say this was no big deal to the Kurds. I was speaking to the question of Sweden’s accession to NATO.
Captain C
@trucmat:
“See, if you just wouldn’t get Daddy Putin mad, and would give Daddy Putin what he wants, he wouldn’t have to [insert totally unnecessary violent action]…”
Tucker &c. are abuser enablers.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
last night I posted a link to a special unit that has been set up, by the RA, to keep the kids of the slovii, at the least a minimum of 50km from the front lines at all times.
Like I said, it’s a bit more complex than “that”. For example, the raising, arming and equipping of “mobliks”, is under the “control” of regional Governors. Area’s that rely on “welfare” payments from Moscow and Saint Petersburg, have been much more “aggresive” about feeding the meatgrinder, because otherwise, if they don’t meet the targets, the welfare will be cut off.
Chetan Murthy
@Jay: sure, sure, but my point is: not everybody who lives in Moscow is siloviki, or oligarchs, or their family. It’s a big, big city, and yet the casualty rate is 1/50 what it is in Buryatia. The heat-map I posted a link to makes that same argument.
Andrya
@Geminid: Quote from your first post: “Sweden isn’t delaying its membership because it has problems with Turkiye’s treatment of its Kurdish population. Turkiye is delaying Sweden’s accession to NATO because of material support Kurdish expatriots in Sweden have given to PKK fighters who’ve killed hundreds of Turkish soldiers and policeman in the years since a ceasefire broke down in 2015.”
This is factually untrue. Turkiye is delaying Sweden joining NATO due to Sweden (driven by Swedish court findings) refusing to extradite Kurds who could not be guaranteed a fair trial in Turkiye. Carlo may well be right that Turkiye will fold, and agree to Sweden joining NATO- actually, I think he is right. However, the conflict is about the fact that Kurds, and especially Kurds who want to preserve their traditional culture, CANNOT be assured their human rights will be respected in Turkiye.
Chetan Murthy
@Andrya: To your point, when I saw this reported-on, the Kurds (taking refuge in Sweden) were not described as providing material support to separatists in Turkey, but rather as civil activists and journailists. Now, there’s a gray area there, but I certainly didn’t read anything that implied that these were like, say, Peter King (who it seems clearly provided material support to the IRA).
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
agreed, but,*
there are a large number of factors that weight the regional casualty rates. Just look at US Military Recruitment stats. If you are from Podunk, Ohio with a Grade 12 at best, vs Long Beach, Cali, with a BS in Computer Science,….
*you can ignore everything after the “but” : ),……
Geminid
@Andrya: Personally, I do not think the Kurds are given the rights they deserve in Turkiye. But this is a problem that predates Erdogan’s political career by decades. You know that, but sometimes I wonder if other people believe that Erdogan created this problem by himself. And while people rightfully decry Turkiye’s treatment of its Kurdish minority, I’m not convinced the US has treated our similar-sized African American minority any better.
I thought there were promising developments going into the last decade, but that progress was lost in 2015, when instability in Syria blew up the ceasefire between the Turkish government and the PKK. Erdogan made bad choices then, but so did the PKK, and now the Kurdish people are paying for it.
It seems to me that the insurgency and the repression are inextricably intertwined now, and will be until there is a durable ceasefire. So, I want to see Sweden give Erdogan what he rightfully demands regarding the question of material support for the PKK, and deny what is not rightful.
Geminid
@Chetan Murthy: Sweden has admitted that some of its Kurdish refugees have provided material support to the PKK, in violation of Sweden’s own laws. Like I said, one person’s terrorist is another person’s freedom fighter, so I’m not going to condemn the Kurds for this. But I’m not going to blame Turkiye for trying to stop it. Any nation would.
Geminid
@Andrya: First you tell me that Erdogan is conditioning Sweden’s membership in NATO on its extradition of Kurdish refugees (#53). Then I say (#58) that Erdogan will likely not hold out for extradition, so at #63 you agree but point out that Erdogan is still intimidating refugees, which is true.
And now at #72, you are back to saying that I’m missing the fact that Erdogan has demanded extradition of Kurds, but maybe Carlo is right and Erdogan may not hold out for extradition!
Bit I’ll stand by my original response to the commenter who asserted that Turkiye’s unjust, even murderous treatment of its Kurdish minority was an issue holding up Sweden’s NATO membership.
That is not true. The issue holding up Sweden’s accession to NATO is expressed in the memorandum of understanding signed by Sweden last year. And that is not a end to Turkish repression of its Kurdish citizens, but Sweden’s role in suppressing material support for Kurdish insurgents. The commenter may wish that the broader injustices were the issue, and you also may wish they were, but they’re not, even if they should be.
AnotherKevin
@Geminid: And if a substantial majority of Kurds do not want to be part of Turkey, what are Erdogan’s “rightful demands” (in conjunction with the reality of military repression on the ground)?
AnotherKevin
@AnotherKevin: I hadn’t seen your 77 when I wrote 78, so maybe we are quibbling. I still strongly dislike your use of the word “rightful”
Geminid
@AnotherKevin: I think Turkiye can rightfully demand that Sweden enforce its own laws prohibiting its residents from materially supporting armed insurgencies in places like Turkiye.
I would add, though, that the PKK has given up on separating Turkish Kurdistan from the Turkish nation. They fought a bloody war from the 1970s to the 1990s to accomplish that goal, and they lost. Their leader Mr. Ocalan’s avowed goal now is to vindicate his people’s rights within the Turkish nation, through some form of autonomy.
Catalonia could be a good model, and the HDP party will be the likely vehicle for Kurdish political aspirations. I believe that Mr. Ocalan’s nephew is one of the 50 or so HDP members in the national legislature.
The Turkish government and the PKK were making progress towards such a settlement until 2015, when their ceasefire became an indirect casualty of the Islamic State takeover of the upper Euphrates Valley. This was another consequence of George Bush’s destabilizing war against Iraq.
I don’t know when or how they’re going to get back to a ceasefire now. But they have to, because armed struggle has proven a dead end, and I think most Kurds understand this.
Geminid
@AnotherKevin: There probably is a better word than “rightfully.” But still, if Sweden wants to join an alliance with Turkiye, that nation has a “right” to demand that Sweden do its best to keep its residents from financing weapons that kill Turkish troops and policeman. But I don’t think it has a “right” to demand Sweden extradition political opponents, and that is the distinction I was trying to get at.
Mallard Filmore
For something not related to Turkye:
https://crooksandliars.com/2023/03/ukrainian-hackers-identify-bombers
“Colonel Sergei Atroshchenko ordered the bombing of the drama theatre, maternity hospital and children’s hospital in Mariupol. He’s now been identified by Ukraine and his remaining time on this planet will be brief, all thanks to his wife’s dedication and the eleven other wives who positively identified their war criminal husbands. …”
Jinchi
They expected Trump to hand him over.
With good reason. Trump was ready to hand McFaul over to the Russians.
trucmat
@Roger Moore:
Well yeah a prisoner exchange is the obvious reason for the hostage. You didn’t engage with my conjecture that the hidden reason will be to use the prisoner as a club to make Biden appear impotent through the upcoming elections as was done to Carter.
sab
Very late to comments here. I thought Adam does comments at the end of his other workday. Kind of like clockwork, turns up every day at almost same time. Other posts schedules don’t matter. His appear when we expect them.
sab
Has there been any government in the world ever that cared less about the welfare of their people than Russia?
I realize that this is a recurring question. Every time we look at Russia we think what the fuck is wrong with their governance.
And then we hate to let their people in to our counrty because they arrived so brain damaged. They utterly destroyed Israel. Arrived with no civic values whatever, and then poisoned the local governance.
Andrya
@Geminid: Erdogan is absolutely trying to get political opponents extradited whom he considers terrorists, but courts in both the US and Sweden have said there is no evidence that they are terrorists. Here’s a link. And he’s trying to do it as a condition of NATO membership.
The fact that he may fail does not make this OK. And he may not fail. Jinchi’s comment that if he keeps trying a future Trump administration (or Disantis administration) may comply is completely true.
It’s also true that there’s a tradition of hostility and discrimination against Kurds in Turkiye that long predates Erdogan. In the 1980s it was illegal to speak the Kurdish language, or publish a book in Kurdish, or sing Kurdish songs. It’s still illegal for a municipal government in a Kurdish area to publish any announcement in Kurdish. It’s still illegal for a political party to use the Kurdish language. There was some progress during the time Turkiye was trying to get in the EU. What Erdogan did was to reverse the trend for his own political gain: “never mind that I am dismantling democracy, because I’m bringing back the anti-Kurdish stuff!”
Here is a quote from the Wikipedia article on “Human Rights of the Kurdish People in Turkey”: ” the Turkish security forces did not differentiate the armed militants from the civilian population they were supposed to be protecting.” Erdogan labels legitimate political opponents and journalists who publish about Kurdish repression as terrorists.
YY_Sima Qian
@sab: It appears that Putin & clique do not feel they need to derive legitimacy from improving the lot for the Russian citizens. Even the authoritarians in Sub-Saharan African nations at least make a superficial attempt, which is why they had gone for Chinese loans to build infrastructure (some of which are white elephants), hospitals & stadiums, in addition to shiny government buildings & fat bank accounts in Switzerland.
Uncle Cosmo
@Andrya: It breaks my heart that Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, who practically singlehandedly dragged Türkiye by the scruff of the neck from the 17th century into the modern world, and in many ways is one of the towering figures of the 20th century**, had this one horrible blind spot re the Kurds, who he called “mountain Turks.” Maybe it had something to do with the provision in the original peace treaty (Sevres) for a referendum in southeastern Anatolia re establishment of a Kurdish state – Atatürk was prepared to abandon all Ottoman territory with few Turks in residence in order to establish a Turkish republic, but he drew the line in the southeast, and after defeating the Greeks (whose Megalo Idea bit off a whole lot more of Anatolia than they could chew) insisted on retaining the southeast and its Kurds.
(ETA: It also breaks my heart how his fiercely secular and modern Cumhuriyet has been slouching toward Islamism since Erdogan got his hands on it, but that’s a story for another time.)
** And yes he could be vindictive and bloodspattered. Consider the time and the place. No one else could have accomplished what he managed in less than 20 years.
Geminid
@Andrya: I appreciate your comments and respect your knowledge in this area, as well as your commitment to the Kurdish people. I do not neccesarily accept the Wikipedia article’s characterization of the Turkish Army’s policy towards Kurdish civilians, though. Contributors to these articles often have taken a side and are not always objective. Abd I can’t be sure if they are describing the situation 25 years ago or today, and that makes a difference.
This is an important question and I intend to try to find out more of what has been going on since the truce broke down in 2015. I have been trying to know more about Turkiye because it is an important country and not just some second rate NATO member distinguished only by a bad human rights problem
From the little I know, I think the PKK deserves some of the blame for the current situation. Here, I find myself in conflict not with you but with others who have taken a side, and with less knowledge. I think some people think it’s perfectly fine for a 20 year old Army conscript or a 40 year old policeman to be killed by a PKK bomb, because they think the PKK are the heros, and the Turkish security forces (many of whom are Kurdish themselves) are the villains. And that Erdogan has no standing to try to counter this. That is what I try to push back against.