(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Quick housekeeping note: the answer to ReadWrite’s question from last night will be the last thing I cover before we get to what you’re all really here for – Patron!
President Zelenskyy made a trip to Chernihiv to visit wounded Soldiers recovering in a military hospital:
During a working trip to Chernihiv region, President Zelenskyy visited a military hospital and talked with defenders of Ukraine who are undergoing treatment after injuries they sustained during hostilities, in particular in the Donetsk region. pic.twitter.com/WBGGwt2zsF
— Oriannalyla 🇺🇦 (@Lyla_lilas) April 3, 2023
And here’s a bit of an update on the young woman that the Russians have identified as the suspect in the bombing yesterday in St. Petersburg:
Russia detained Darya Trepova who is a suspect in the unexplained incident that led to the death of military correspondent Vladlen Tatarsky yesterday in St. Petersburg. She allegedly delivered the figurine which contained explosives to the cafe where Vladlen was holding a meeting… pic.twitter.com/MFZf0t8Sin
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) April 3, 2023
Here’s the full text of Dmitri’s tweet:
Russia detained Darya Trepova who is a suspect in the unexplained incident that led to the death of military correspondent Vladlen Tatarsky yesterday in St. Petersburg. She allegedly delivered the figurine which contained explosives to the cafe where Vladlen was holding a meeting with his fans.
And this is a still of the woman who brought the package with Tatarsky’s statue to the cafe yesterday and then left before the explosion. It is from the videos posted yesterday.
Correction: Daria Trepova was not detained. She is still wanted along with her husband, Dmitry Rylov, a member of the Libertarian Party of Russia. Interfax news agency reported on the detention of Trepova but this turned out to be wrong. https://t.co/TfdYHPZDM5
— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) April 3, 2023
I have no idea if these are the same woman.
Regardless, I am still in agreement with G&T from last night: this does not make a lot of sense. Unless, as has been suggested Prigozhin was going to be there and he was the actual target. And even then it doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Every day we are getting stronger, every day we are getting closer to the day when the terrorist state will be held to account – address by the President of Ukraine
3 April 2023 – 22:42
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
A report on this busy day.
Staff. Another away meeting of the Staff – the first was in Dnipro, now – in Chernihiv.
Key security issues at the front, in the northern regions and at the border.
The commanders of the directions delivered reports. This time, Generals Syrskyi and Tarnavskyi reported by secure communication line, and not in person, from the hottest areas of the front.
The situation in Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Maryinka and throughout the Donetsk region. Bilohorivka and the entire Luhansk region.
The Commander-in-Chief and the Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate, the Head of the State Border Guard Service, representatives of the Ministry of Defense.
Full-fledged meeting. Full-fledged coordination. Full-fledged preparation of our active actions for the liberation of Ukrainian lands.
There were many different events and negotiations in the Chernihiv region starting from this morning.
One of the most difficult trips in terms of emotions.
We visited Yahidne, an ordinary small village of our Chernihiv region, which Russian savages turned into one of the world’s biggest examples of human abuse last year.
Russian soldiers made a command post at the school in Yahidne, and drove all the villagers into the basement of the school. Just like a human shield.
From March 3 to March 30 of last year, the occupiers kept more than three hundred people in the basement of this school… An ordinary village school, the basement, which is smaller than two hundred square meters.
Elderly people and little children, women and men… The oldest woman was 93 years old, the youngest child was less than six months old.
We will never forgive the evil state for this basement, this concentration camp in Yahidne, just as for all other crimes of Russia against people and humanity. And not only us.
The Kremlin will not be able to hide behind a chair in the UN Security Council, gas pipes or anything else. There will certainly be legal and fair responsibility for every Russian crime committed on Ukrainian soil. In the tribunal, in the International Criminal Court, in Ukrainian courts.
I am grateful to the guests of Ukraine who visited the Chernihiv region with me, who saw this concentration of Russian evil in our Yahidne. I thank German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck and Secretary General of the Council of Europe Marija Pejčinović Burić. I am also thankful for the negotiations – meaningful and correct.
I thank UNESCO Director General Audrey Azoulay for her attention to Ukraine, for today’s meetings in Ukraine. We are preparing the UNESCO World Heritage status for the historical center of Chernihiv. The same status that was recently obtained for the historical center of our Odesa.
As always, it was a special honor to visit our warriors in the hospital, who are recovering from battle wounds. To thank them for everything they do for Ukraine, to thank them for their faith in Ukraine, which our people defend, risking the most valuable – their lives.
I presented Chernihiv with the award of a hero city, a city of heroes. Chernihiv saw different occupiers, different kinds of evil… Protecting ourselves from this Russian evil is perhaps the most important thing in our history.
I awarded our warriors who distinguished themselves in the defense of the state.
And what is very important – I thanked everyone who ensures the reconstruction of our Chernihiv region. We will restore everything that the enemy destroyed.
Ukraine will never be a country of ruins, no matter how much the Kremlin dreams of it. Their dreams do not come true.
Already here, in Kyiv, after my return, I met with a delegation of American congressmen.
I thanked America for its consistently powerful help, from President Biden and the White House team to both houses of Congress and the entire system of American power.
We talked, of course, about the active actions of Ukraine. Of course, about our joint victory.
I also met with Mike Pompeo, former United States Secretary of State
I am grateful to everyone who helps us defend freedom! I am especially thankful today to Denmark and Norway for the initiative of the governments to transfer an additional batch of artillery shells to our warriors. This is very timely and useful.
We are getting stronger every day. Every day we are getting closer to the day when the terrorist state will be held to account.
Glory to all who are now fighting for Ukraine! May the memory of all those who gave their lives for Ukraine be blessed and eternal!
Glory to Ukraine!
Horrors of russian war crimes must not be forgotten.
The mastermind behind these crimes should… well let’s hear it from our President @ZelenskyyUa pic.twitter.com/ef8PVEB4BK— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 3, 2023
And some good news, they’ve arranged another prisoner swap!
Another prisoner swap.
12 Ukrainians returned home, 5 of whom were seriously injured.
10 are privates and sergeants, and 2 are civilian hostages captured by russian terrorists in Lyptsi, Kharkiv region, and in Mariupol, Donetsk region. pic.twitter.com/s2DE8k9o23— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 3, 2023
— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) April 3, 2023
Here is a machine translation of the latest operational update from the Ukrainian MOD:
Here is NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situations in Avdiivka and Bakhmut:
AVDIIVKA AXIS /1240 UTC3 APL/ RU attacks were broken up at Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, and Marinka. UKR artillery and missile forces reported interdicting a Russian HQ element, 3 RU air defense sites and six other important enemy targets. RU forces make progress N of the city. pic.twitter.com/h7VjlZKSB9
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) April 3, 2023
BAKHMUT CITY /1150 UTC 3 APL/ Heavy urban fighting continues. UKR forces report that they repelled more than 20 RU attacks in the city during fighting on 2 APL. Lines of Communication & Supply (LOCS) remain stable, RU is assessed to be making incremental, but costly, gains. pic.twitter.com/pzCorz2uZ6
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) April 3, 2023
Bakhmut:
Ukrainian Panzerhaubitze 2000 pounding Russian troops in the Bakhmut area.#Bakhmut #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/SkLmLGJg8M
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) April 3, 2023
The intel and sabotage unit of the 3rd separate assault brigade carries out operations near Bakhmut.
Cool footage. pic.twitter.com/2HnpK4cuHp
— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) April 3, 2023
Konstyantinivka:
The site of today’s strike on Kostyantinivka that killed 6 people and injured 8. Two rockets (potentially S-300) landed in front of a high-rise residential building. pic.twitter.com/B33fVISB3N
— Guillaume Ptak (@guillaume_ptak) April 2, 2023
Melitopol:
Russian news about his condition:
“Photo of the car in which Maхуm Zubarev was.
He is in critical condition. He is receiving medical attention.
According to the TG channels, he has a hip injury and a pelvic fracture.”#Melitopol #RussiaInvadedUkraine pic.twitter.com/JiHx79KsJ6— ✙ Albina Fella ✙ 🇺🇦🇬🇧🇫🇷🇩🇪🇵🇱🇺🇸🇨🇦🇦🇺 (@albafella1) April 3, 2023
Got another one!
Avdiivka:
Heroes from the 72nd brigade clearing trenches near Avdiivka. pic.twitter.com/JXpW0Q3QBG
— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) April 3, 2023
The 36th marine brigade working in Avdiivka area eliminates a group of Russian Wagner forces. pic.twitter.com/gEtOBejUd6
— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) April 3, 2023
Last night I decided to leave these two threads from the Ukrainian officer who tweets as Tatarigami until tonight. The first tweet in the first thread is below followed by the rest from the Thread Reader App:
Thread🧵
1/ A well-known pro-Russian channel called "Поздняков 3.0" with over 240,000 subscribers recently uploaded a video that allegedly shows members of the "Wagner" group torturing a man who is tied up. pic.twitter.com/y5GiJFamhv
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) April 1, 2023
2/ According to the channel, the man is a “Georgian mercenary.” The video shows an unidentified man with his arms and legs tied, with the word “Georgian” written on his forehead.3/ The man appears to be semi-conscious and is being held by another masked individual while a third person plays the violin next to him. The act of playing the violin is a reference to the Wagner group, who are often referred to as “musicians.”4/ The author of the also included a message directed towards the man’s relatives in Tbilisi. The message states that since the man is identified as a mercenary from Georgia, he is not considered a combatant and therefore his relatives should not expect him to return home.5/ It is worth noting that many of the emojis posted in response to the video appear to approve such a behavior. It also should be noted that the authenticity of the video has not yet been confirmed and efforts are being made to identify the man in the video.
And here’s the first tweet of the second thread followed by the rest from the Thread Reader App:
🧵Thread
1/ Yesterday, a public announcement was made regarding the formation of a group called the "Club of Angry Patriots." To gain insight into the gravity of this group, I recommend briefly examining their backgrounds and reviewing the summary of their "manifesto." pic.twitter.com/JwMvOYOWzy
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) April 2, 2023
2/ This group consists of several terrorists, extremists, and political activists. Among its members are Pavel Gubarev, Vladimir Grubnik, Igor Strelkov, Viktor Alksnis, Maxim Kalashnikov, Maxim Klimov, Mikhail Aksel, and Evgeny Mikhailov.3/ Pavel Gubarev is known as the “People’s Governor” of the Donetsk Region in 2014. Western audience may recognize him for his statement: “But if you don’t want to be convinced, we’ll k*** you. We’ll ki** as many as we have to: one million, five million, or exter**** all of you.”4/ Igor Strelkov(Girkin) is a terrorist, retired(?) FSB colonel, nationalist, and monarchist. Strelkov was a participant in the occupation of Crimea and was also a former leader of the separatist movement in Donetsk in 2014. He was convicted for shooting down flight MH175/ Vladimir Grubnik is a notable leader of the russia-backed separatist movement in Odesa. He was arrested as a leader of a sabotage group in 2015, but later exchanged during a prisoner swap in December 2019.6/ Viktor Alksnis (also known as Black Colonel) is a former Soviet Air Forces colonel and a former Deputy of the State Duma. In 2018, he was elected co-chairman of the all-Russian movement “National-Patriotic Forces of Russia.7/ Maxim Klimov is a retired Captain 3rd rank (equivalent to Lieutenant Commander in the US Navy). He frequently appears as a guest in Igor Girkin’s videos and is often referred to as a “military expert” in various Russian media. Klimov mainly covers military naval topics.8/ Maxim Kalashnikov is a writer and political activist. He is the host of the online platform “ROI TV,” which frequently features Girkin alongside various conspiracy theorists, monarchists, radicals and marginalized political groups.9/ Mikhail Axel is one of the leaders of the National-Bolshevik (Fascist-Communist party) movement in Moscow. He actively assisted Donbas separatists with humanitarian aid in 2015.10/ Yevgeny Mikhailov is a former assistant to the Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration of Russia until 2012. He is also a former Governor of Pskov oblast until 2004 and Member of the State Duma: 1993-1996. Mikhailov frequently appears as a guest on Strelkov’s videos11/ The “Club of Angry Patriots” has formulated a set of beliefs and proposals, including recognizing Russia’s right to restore its historical borders, opposing the policies of the Wagner group, avoiding new Minsk agreements, and approaching turbulent times with a united front.12/ The “club” expresses concerns regarding the unpreparedness for a war of attrition, cautioning that a defeat could lead to the russia’s collapse. They emphasize that they do not intend to remove the government, but aim to reverse a potential coup from Kremlin elites.13/ They also aim to bridge the informational gap between decision-makers and the public. The club’s overarching objective is to unite “genuine patriots” of diverse political backgrounds into a cohesive platform.14/ Strelkov has a history of organizing such movements, as seen in creation of the “Committee of January 25th” in 2016. This committee proclaimed a goal to reunify the Russian people into a single state. It positioned itself as an anti-liberal third force15/ If you are not familiar with this movement, it is not surprising as it existed for less than a year and did not produce any tangible results. There is a possibility that the “Club of Angry Patriots” may meet the same fate as its predecessor.16/ The fact that this movement has made its presence known through a manifesto in russia, where even liking the wrong social media post can result in imprisonment suggests a backing from a powerful figure from elites, and developing internal struggle among them
Here’s the best comment I’ve seen yet about Tatarsky getting blowed up:
He was smoking inside a restaurant that prohibits smoking indoors
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) April 2, 2023
Last night in comments ReadWrite asked:
A long-time lurker here. Adam, thank you so much for these nightly digests. Between your posts and the informed comments I think I have a much clearer picture of what is happening in and about Ukraine than I could get from just about any other source.
I do have two questions. The first is about the ethnic makeup of the RA casualties. Everything I have read (including here) says that the bulk of the soldiers are from the ethnic regions and not from the “privileged” big cities east of the Urals. I’m sure that’s true for the conscripts and the contract grunts, but does it apply to the officers? Before the war, I was under the impression that the officers were more likely to be from privileged places (or near them) and not from the hinterlands. If so, I would think that their losses would be noticed by family members and that knowledge would spread.
My second question is about Bakmut. I’ve watched the slow development of the salients around the city center. At some point, the UA is either going to have to withdraw or push back. Are they just biding time before mud season is over? Every day those maps make their position look a little more precarious…
First, you’re most welcome and thanks for the kind words.
Let’s take your first question about the ethnic makeup of Russian KIAs. All of the news reporting we have coming out of Russia clearly indicates that the majority of the KIAs – that are being publicly reported – are coming from the ethnic minority parts of Russia or are ethnic minority Russians. The site below tracks the deaths of Russian officers killed in Ukraine, but if you click through and look at their data set it does not break it down by ethnicity:
2 000 Russian officers killed in Ukraine as of 28 March 2023.
Based on publicly available data from Russia. Confirmations are made via funeral notices, obituaries and news sites. Names, photos and sources: https://t.co/KPk6K7C5tR
Follow @KilledInUkraine for updates. pic.twitter.com/VhROIgByNY— KIU • Russian Officers killed in Ukraine 🇨🇿🇺🇦 (@KilledInUkraine) March 28, 2023
The Center for European Policy Analysis has this to say:
It is easy, with the passage of time, to forget just how enervating is the loss of tactical leaders in large-scale combat operations. In Vietnam, one out of eight US service personnel killed in action (KIA) was an officer — the vast majority second lieutenants to captains — who led platoons and companies.
Open-source researchers at Killed in Ukraine have confirmed 800-plus Russian senior lieutenants and captains KIA. When the loss of wounded in action (WIA) is added, it is likely that half of all competent ground-fighting company commanders in the Russian force in Ukraine are either KIA or WIA. Russia may be running out of missiles, but these can be bought and manufactured; what they are more certainly lacking is able tactical leaders.
More at the link.
Now as to the ethnic minority versus ethnic Russian issue, The Jerusalem Post reported the following on 12 MAR 2023:
Heavy Ukraine War casualties are proportionately impacting Russian ethnic minorities and Eastern periphery populations more than those in the federation’s riches cities, the United Kingdom Defense Ministry assessed in a Sunday morning intelligence update.
“In many of the Eastern regions, deaths are likely running, as a percentage of the population, at a rate 30+ times higher than in Moscow,” said the Defense Ministry. “In places, ethnic minorities take the biggest hit; in Astrakhan some 75% of casualties come from the minority Kazakh and Tartar populations.”
The UK said cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg had proportionately lost little of their population in the invasion.
“This is especially true for the families of the country’s elite,” said the ministry. “As the Russian MoD seeks to address its continued deficit of combat personnel, insulating the better-off and more influential elements of Russian society will highly likely remain a major consideration.
Here’s al Jazeera from October 2022:
According to data collected by Russian independent media, a number of areas with high minority populations have suffered the most casualties in the war.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian media and authorities have accused ethnic minority Russian soldiers of carrying out war crimes in Ukraine.
Al Jazeera spoke to Victoria Maladaeva, vice president of the foundation, about the war in Ukraine and its impact on the Republic of Buryatia, a federal region and historical homeland of the Indigenous Buryat people located on Russia’s border with Mongolia.
Al Jazeera: How has the war affected minorities in Russia?
Victoria Maladaeva: We know that statistically Dagestan, Tuva Republic and Buryat Republic, where minorities live, have the highest death toll.
Moscow [a region of 17 million] has fewer than 50 dead. Buryatia [a region with a population of 980,000] alone has 364.
We have been disproportionately hit hard.
The chances of a Buryat dying in the war in Ukraine is 7.8 times higher than [an ethnic] Russian; a Tuvan is 10.4 times more likely.
We saw the biggest losses [of Buryat servicemen] in the beginning of the war when they sent them there as cannon fodder. Afterwards, the numbers decreased gradually.
Al Jazeera: Did the mobilisation order more closely target Russia’s minorities?
Maladaeva: The fact that the mobilisation was first completed in ethnic republics shows that this is where they first started drafting.
The day of Putin’s announcement, local authorities in Buryatia came to people’s homes at night. They took people from their beds. Some weren’t even given draft notices. They were just dragged onto buses and signed up at military bases. They took everyone, even [in contravention of the rules] people with five children, several men from the same family.
In Dagestan, there are endangered ethnic groups. Some are super small communities with populations of about 13,000, and they were still drafted. We see this as an ethnic genocide.
In Sakha Republic, there are small communities who live in rural villages. If you need medical treatment, you need to call a helicopter. They would never receive help because they are too far away. But with this mobilisation, the government flew to these villages to get men drafted.
People see this as an injustice — that Putin is using ethnic minorities to fight in Ukraine for his imperial ambitions.
Much, much more at the link!
For those of you interested, here is the link to a pre-print article on this topic by Alexey Bessudnov of the University of Exeter.
As to the second question regarding Bakhmut, the answer is that I really don’t know what the Ukrainians are going to do. Every time General Zaluzhny or Colonel General Syrskyi makes a statement, gives an interview, or social media posts dealing with this topic and all I know is that they have a plan and that they are executing it. I look at the forward line of battle and see the Russian lines as surrounding about 2/3rds of Bakhmut, but if you flip your perspective what I see is two Russian salients to the north and south of Bakhmut. I’d think those would be appealing targets, but, again, I do not know the particulars of what that is.
Just thought I’d put this here:
Spouses "Pion" [Peony] and "Fritz".
Love wins.📷@Liberov pic.twitter.com/WjdLd6MHhq
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 2, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
@patron__dsns Моя людина❤️ #песпатрон
Open thread!
Anonymous At Work
I can see why Gin and Tonic thought this didn’t make sense. It’s convoluted to view it as a third-hand attack on Wagner supporters. So, wouldn’t Occam’s Razor say this was the Russian equivalent of that Trump supporter attacking an FBI field office to get the FBI to lay off of Trump?
Anonymous At Work
Also, on Bakhmut’s salients, I see the salients as you do but I also see every Russian conscript being sent to three locations and a straight line from Zaporizhzhia to Melitopol to Sea of Avoz. Ukraine’s got a chance to force a break-through in some spots once the muddy season is over and probably has a few choice locations. It’s just hard waiting on the sidelines.
cain
I feel for these ethnic minorities. Putin has a lot to answer for. He’s basically protecting his kind of Russian while conveniently getting rid of the minorities. He’s destroying them.
Eventually, he’ll use them up and then he’ll have to take it from “his russians”.
Alison Rose
“In a basement with a bucket instead of a toilet” is about the mildest possible punishment I’d like to see that fucker get one day. Does he still do his pathetic shirtless horse riding? Horses are supposed to be wise animals, maybe one of them will finally buck him off over a cliffside or something. Onto a bed of nails. That have been covered in cayenne pepper. Then a boulder falls on top of him and the vultures set in.
Okay sorry, I’ll stop.
I love seeing Zelenskyy visiting wounded soldiers. You can tell that the admiration goes both ways and is completely genuine. Here’s video of the visit from his FB page. Love seeing the smiles when they pose for pics. A nice moment of lightness among so much turmoil.
I suppose we’ll never know the complete story about that asshole being blown to bits, but part of me doesn’t care. He’s gone. Good riddance.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Jay
NYCMT
The playbook, considering the progression of callbacks to stalinism, seems to be at the point of pulling a Kirov assassination in order to justify a purge of security apparatus.
In his biography of Stalin – which is an excellent read- Kotkin meticulously details the means and manner by which the assassination served as to weld together a wavering apparatus and enforce silence and consent to unlimited repression across the entire hierarchy.
Tatarsky is the Kirov.
Jay
@Alison Rose:
Yup to both.
The Pale Scot
Unless she got a haircut between the time she was there and getting arrested, that ain’t her
Adam L Silverman
@The Pale Scot: Yep. I deleted the sentence that read “I suppose it’s possible and somewhat logical that she cut and died her hair before she was arrested.”
YY_Sima Qian
Fighting & dying (in large numbers) for their colonial masters in WW I & WW II really woke up the ethno-nationalism of colonial subjects. Could happen to post-defeat Russia, as well.
Jay
Jay
@Adam L Silverman:
There is also the speed at which the “crime” was solved, allegedly.
oatler
Checked out Chernihiv on Wiki and it led me to this beautiful scene (says from 3 years ago):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTGcY4aFzRY
Gin & Tonic
Another collaborator experiences car trouble:
Gin & Tonic
Funny story I posted about earlier, but developed a few more details. Russian “volunteer” raised funds to buy drones for ru forces, opened an account with Ali Express, funded to the tune of $25k. Ukrainians hacked the account, bought $25k worth of sex toys and had them shipped to his house.
dmsilev
The Post has a long article about (commercial) satellite imagery showing that Russia has spent the last month or two extensively digging in in Crimea. Long and fairly intricate trench lines, anti-tank obstacle fields, etc. etc. Paranoia? Legitimate worry that the Ukrainian Army might manage a breakthrough in the southern front? Someone is grifting off the “build field fortifications” contract? Who knows.
ColoradoGuy
Smoking’s a real problem, isn’t it?
Gin & Tonic
And anyway, in these stories about Fomin (“Tatarsky”) — “military correspondent” is a novel way to spell “bank robber.” But I learn something new every day.
But here’s a “before” photo of him with Dugina:
Jay
https://gagadget.com/en/war/231759-ukrainian-hackers-attacked-the-account-of-a-russian-blogger-on-aliexpress-and-ordered-dildos-worth-25000-instead-of-d/
trollhattan
The undercard Battle of the Trench Beavers has me conflicted as to which side to root for.
https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1642924058575613954?cxt=HHwWhMC9hcGu68wtAAAA
Jinchi
Isn’t that the first thing you’d do if you’d just pulled off an assassination?
Anoniminous
Finland will officially join NATO tomorrow.
My mind.
It is blown.
Gin & Tonic
@Jay: I think I read about that somewhere.
Jay
@dmsilev:
Grift. Trenches don’t follow terrain, are shored up with 1″x 6″s, have no overhead cover, drains, grenade pits, splinter shelters and are too wide, the “dragons teeth” can be pushed aside with an ATV, some are already falling apart, the concrete bunkers are useless, the beach fences are a joke, barely capable of stopping a dog chasing a frisbee.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
just providing a link.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
just providing a link.
Jinchi
@Jay: If you got the contract to build trenches for the Russians wouldn’t you rather do it on the beach, far from the frontlines?
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: That too!
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: It’s in the update up top!
Honestly, why do I bother?//
Jay
@Jinchi:
spent a lot of time building scrapes, trenches and “playing” in trenches.
The new Moscovite “Crimea” defence lines and others in the Donbass and Lugansk are pretty much a joke. Orxy is now pissed off that he has to make lists of Moscovite trench building equiptment destroyed.
They are pretty much only good for making mass burials easier.
Jay
@Jinchi:
spent a lot of time building scrapes, trenches and “playing” in trenches.
The new Moscovite “Crimea” defence lines and others in the Donbass and Lugansk are pretty much a joke. Orxy is now pissed off that he has to make lists of Moscovite trench building equiptment destroyed.
They are pretty much only good for making mass burials easier.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: @Jay: Would you two set up a Slack or Discord or something to coordinate this stuff?//
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: Oops, sorry. Read the top, then Patron, then got distracted and obviously skipped the middle.
Roger Moore
@Jinchi:
If you were really clever, you might wear a wig for the assassination and then ditch it as soon as you left. That would let you change your appearance faster and would protect you against being identified by anyone who recognized your appearance without the wig.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: No worries. It happens.
Adam L Silverman
@Jinchi: The correct answer is go to Disney World.
Adam L Silverman
Going to walk the dogs.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: Too much like work, which I have given up.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: I understand.
Anoniminous
Looking at footage of the trenches my conclusion is somebody’s nephew has a lumberyard.
Realistically speaking, the thing is a complete Pork Barrel boondoggle. Ukraine doesn’t have sea-and-airlift capability to mount a serious amphibious operation.
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: LOLOL chaotic good
Gin & Tonic
@Alison Rose: Crates full of “the dildo of consequences.”
Alison Rose
@Jinchi: You know how bitches are. We’re so vain! I almost got caught after my own bomb-delivery because I noticed my nails were chipped and I ducked into a salon for a retouch.
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: God, do I ever wish they’d included gift notes bearing that full phrase.
Jay
@Anoniminous:
BMP’s can swim.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Naval_Infantry
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
unlubed,……..
Gin & Tonic
@Alison Rose: Not a phrase I’ve heard in Ukrainian, and the word for “dildo” is pretty awkward: фалоімітатор, or “phalloimitator.”
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: That will now be the only word I use for it.
Anoniminous
@Jay: In theory, maybe.
In practice? Not so much. Skip to 6:05 & etc. for the bottom line.
ReadWrite
Thank you, Adam for addressing my questions. My first one was just putting out a hunch. I read the Bessudnov paper. While there are ethnic inequalities in RA combat deaths, a far bigger predictor appears to be the economic state of the region the soldiers come from. In other words, just like any other war, the poor do the fighting. As to the officer mix, they didn’t look at that, and it’s not clear to me it’s in the data they collected.
For my second question about the creeping advance of the RA, I just hope the end of mud season and the deployment of new armor happen in time. I’m sure the UA has a contingent orderly withdrawal plan, but I would hate to see them have to use it and hand Wagner a propaganda victory.
Roberto el oso
@NYCMT: Kirov was an impressive individual and liked and admired by many, including everyday Soviet citizens. So having him assassinated served Stalin on multiple fronts, since the grief and outrage over his loss were genuine.
Tatarsky is no Kirov …. although you may be correct and the machinations behind the scene are similar in intent. A spark to ignite purges, etc.
Jimmm
@Alison Rose:
Your ideas are intriguing to me, and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.
Carlo Graziani
The bomb killed exactly one person: the individual it was handed to, Tatarskiy.
This is obviously a hit on Tatarskiy alone.
Ksmiami
@Anoniminous: @DarthPutin remains a master strategist
Omnes Omnibus
@Carlo Graziani:
Sometimes the shitty lives of shitty people catch up with them.
Adam L Silverman
@Carlo Graziani: We don’t know that. We actually know very little.
Anoniminous
Ukraine has exactly one (1) 52-year-old amphibious landing ship of the Polnocny-class landing ship: the Yuri Olefirenko. The ship can carry 12 BMP-2 armored personnel carriers, or 4 Main Battle Tanks, or 250 infantrymen with their weapons like 82 mm Mortars and ATGMs, or 250 tons of rations & stores. Compare with the Wasp Class where ship is capable of hosting 1,894 personnel of the United States Marine Corps; almost the full strength of a marine expeditionary unit (MEU). A Wasp-class vessel can transport up to 30,800 square feet (2,860 m2) of cargo, and another 20,000 square feet (1,858 m2) is allocated for the MEU’s vehicles, which typically include 5 M1 Abrams battle tanks, up to 25 AAVs, 8 M198 howitzers, 68 trucks, and up to 12 other support vehicles.
Ukraine just doesn’t have the military capability to conduct amphibious warfare.
Jay
Jay
@Anoniminous:
ssssssh,….. don’t tell the vatnicks,……..
Carlo Graziani
@Adam L Silverman: If what you’re saying is “consider the source,” I don’t disagree. But there is a fair amount of circumstantial evidence consistent with that conclusion. This bomb blew out a shopfront window while hardly ruffling the sidewalk trash outside. The interior photo shows a messy countertop with a little blood, rather than the scene of carnage and devastation that could have been delivered. The announced estimate of “200g of TNT” actually seems consistent with those effects, if perhaps a bit light to blow up the window without some fragmentable component in the wrap.
The point is, terrorist bombs invariably do way more damage than this one did. Their purpose is to be indirectly-addressed area weapons. But this was unquestionably a teeny-weeny bomb, and a prominent personage appears to be the only fatality (I’m sure Russian media would be full of the murderous moral iniquity of Ukrainian Nazis, were there more fatalities—there would be no reason to conceal them). If this were a classic terrorist bombing, everyone in that venue at the time should be dead now.
Moreover, the bomb was handed directly to the victim, instead of being left on a chair, or under a table, or behind a door.
I stand by the conclusion. This was a professional hit, in all likelihood by FSB.
Carlo Graziani
@Omnes Omnibus: Yeah. I don’t like sack dances, but I have to own up to a certain amount of “Ding-Dong, The Witch Is Dead” feeling right now.
Gin & Tonic
@Carlo Graziani: Why does FSB want him dead?
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
he is a further right critic of Putin, The Army, allied with Prigozhen, not the first of the Wagner “Musicians” to get whacked.
Is a “message” being sent, (again?)
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64566582
Why is the Russian State pulling passports and travel documents from the silovi?
Carlo Graziani
@Gin & Tonic: No clue. Too much of Russian “politics” is subterranean and opaque to make a plausible guess. I attribute it to FSB on the evidence of professionalism, rather than on grounds of “Cui Bono.”
Timill
@trollhattan: Feed it some Dinty Moore and point it at the Russians…
Gin & Tonic
@Jay: I know who he was. I’m not coming up with a motive.
Hangö Kex
@Anoniminous:
This is a great relief, but it is a shame that Turkey still holds Sweden’s membership hostage; Finland’s joining will improve Sweden’s security as this puts a NATO member between it and Russia, but still.
Carlo Graziani
@Gin & Tonic: Motive search is a mug’s game when what we know the least about is the state-of-play of Siloviki politics.
CIA/NSA probably knows more, and we may get some hints from the usual WaPo/NYT leaks in the days to come.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
allied with Prigozhen, in a Prigozhen owned coffee shop, full of Prigozhen allied milbloggers who have been taking a dump on the Moscovite Military and Political Leadership for months and months and trying to build a political movement with their own military wing,………
hummmmmm,……..
it’s a louder STFU to Prigozhen, as he ignored the first one,……
Bill Arnold
Higher-res video of the statue from a thread with a lot of pictures.
Can a Russian speaker confirm the “Oh, a Golden Vladlen!” bit?
One of the replies:
The ambiguity (even after the case is “solved”) will be “disturbing the sleep”[1] of a lot of mid-tier Russian propagandists, and top-tier ones too.
[1] euphemism, that.
Hangö Kex
@Carlo Graziani
Jussi Lassila from FIIA suspects this as well in a YLE interview (in Finnish). To him this looks like a crude setup (by the FSB) where the motive is to discredit opponents* + send a subtle** message to Russian warbloggers that being critical of the leadership (like Fomin has been) is not appreciated.
* in Russian media the detained lady is reported to be an anti-war activist and feminist, supposedly in cahoots with Alexei Navalny and Ukrainian intelligence service
** the Kremlin doesn’t want to publicly discredit the warbloggers who by and large are its fervent supporters and propaganda vectors, but trusts that they get the message that there are certain limits to what can be said
Lyrebird
I might be too late for this thread. Did someone who watched the “The intel and sabotage unit of the 3rd separate assault brigade carries out operations near Bakhmut” video understand more of what they might have been doing? A comment says the short weapon that’s not a gun is a grenade launcher. It looks like they’re just sending grenades casually into the sky. Also the machine guns. Would they actually be taking video when enemy fighters are near enough to hit with that
ETA obviously the brigade doesn’t need internet randos like me to understand. I very much appreciate learning from others’ expertise here, though.
Chetan Murthy
@Lyrebird: One presumes that some decent number of soldiers wear GoPros: if for no other reason than to do after-action analysis. I have wondered if that’s what the square mounting brackets on the fronts of many soldiers’ helmets are for.
Anoniminous
@Hangö Kex:
100,000 Kurds live in Sweden. There are six Kurds in the Riksdag. Sweden governments haven’t been backward about calling out Turkey’s bad to horrific treatment of Kurds. Erdoğan is playing the one card he has in an attempt to get them to stop.
Jay
@Lyrebird:
automatic grenade launcher, 20mm to 40mm grenades, fired from a machine gun type weapon.
It’s called indirect fire. Get the math right or have a spotter, and you can “rain” grenades or bullets down on an area. Famously, it was a key contributor to crossing the Rhine.
@Chetan Murthy:
the bracket is for mounting NVG’s, night vision goggles, but it can be adapted for other purposes.
Hangö Kex
@Anoniminous: While the Swedish government can tune town any official critique towards Turkey (for now), there isn’t much they can do about the Kurds in Sweden; the potential gain from Sweden itself seems pretty meager, so I’d think this is really directed elsewhere, probably the US (from where F-16s are on the table, at least), also an opportunity to grandstand for the domestic audience (with elections coming up).
Chetan Murthy
@Jay: o.i.c. Thank you!
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
3 side bayonet mount, what you are mounting ususally has a locking pin or threaded knob to lock the mount into place. Flashlights have been used,
Lyrebird
@Jay: Thanks for the clarifications. I’ve learned a little about indirect fire from Omnes and from Kos, but I did not know it extended beyond large missile launchers, ones you ahve to tow or put a motor on.
Then again I did see the video of the fellow in Soledar, in the group commanded by “Witch”, using a stick to get his angle right for launching. But I think he had line of sight. Still amazing, hope you got to see it.
@Chetan Murthy: Yeah, no doubt they sometimes do that kind of analysis.
Jay
@Lyrebird:
“indirect fire” with things like mg’s, agl’s and rpg’s are generally “harassing” fire. “I’m gonna cross the street to the next house,…… uh, nope, not right now,…….”
It’s ususally used to deny the enemy movement, while maneuver forces move closer to engage.
“Pinning in place”.