(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Something tripped the breaker for my A/C compressor overnight. About 1:30 AM I woke up to a very hot room. I did not return to sleep. I’m a bit punchy. As a result this post is going to just be the basics tonight. And there are likely to be tipoz.
President Zelenskyy went to Poland today. Here is his address to the Polish National Assembly. Video is below, English transcript after the jump. The video at the President of Ukraine’s official YouTube channel does NOT have closed caption, so there are no subtitles.
Russia cannot win in Europe when a Ukrainian and a Pole stand side by side – speech by the President of Ukraine before the deputies of both chambers of the National Assembly, representatives of the public of Ukraine and Poland
5 April 2023 – 22:45
Greetings, Warsaw!
Greetings, Poland!
Great Polish people! Great Ukrainian people! Side by side here – united on this square, by the spirit of freedom, great history and glorious victory, which we are bringing closer together!
We know each other, Ukrainians and Poles, and have known each other for a long time. And now, in the heart of the Polish capital, Ukrainian hearts turn to each of the Polish hearts.
It is an honor for me to be here. I speak to you with words of gratitude and strength. Gratitude, because there are no such moments anymore when we would be divided, when we would not be united. Ukrainian and Polish hearts are fighting for one freedom, for the mutual independence of our states, for our native Europe – our common home, and we will be victorious!
There is no such force that would prevail over the Ukrainian and Polish brotherhood. And this will make the following words come true:
“What a foreign force has taken from us, we shall take back with a saber.”
We will prevail, brothers, everywhere, on our side.
Every time the Ukrainian flag returns to its absolutely legal place on Ukrainian soil, and the Russian occupier flees, the Polish flag also gets stronger.
Yellow-blue and white-red – these four colors are stronger than the enemy’s tricolor.
Every successful battle of Ukrainian heroes for our independent state adds protection to Polish independence. Polish “Krabs” and “Pioruns” in the hands of Ukrainians, who return freedom to our people, reinforce your freedom as well.
This is what our ability, Ukrainians and Poles, to build our victorious history side by side means. And I am grateful for this brotherhood to every Pole!
Bow to you, Poland! Applause for you, Polish people!
I am grateful to you, friend Andrzej, Mr. President. To your wife Agata. I am honored to be here today with my wife.
Thank you, dear Mateusz, Mr. Prime Minister.
Thank you, Mrs. Marshal and Mr. Marshal.
To all Polish leaders here in Warsaw and everywhere in the communes, and to the people of Poland who know what our freedom means to your freedom. I am grateful to all of you who are now on this square and who hear me all over Poland!
Today, I was on Marszałek Piłsudski Square, next to the place where the words of a great man and a great Pole, John Paul II, were spoken in 1979. Turning to God, he said: “May Your Spirit descend and renew the face of the earth! Of this land!”
Today it is obvious how generous the Lord was when he heard these words.
Free Poland has risen and will never fall. Free Ukraine has risen and will never fall.
The foreign power, which sought to control our people and did not understand what we were striving for, simply fell apart. And we – we stand together! Side by side. Ukraine and Poland, and Europe, and the free world.
We stand when the full-scale forces of aggression are thrown again against our freedom. Well, this regime, which unleashed a war against us, will also fall. It brought graves to Ukraine, so that later he would bring graves again to Poland, and to all our brothers and sisters of free Europe. And we are fighting. Side by side!
It brought deportations to Ukrainians in order to deport others again, whose freedom breathes on the lands that Russia is going to steal. And we defend ourselves. Side by side!
The enemy wanted to bury our independence and to dissolve our national cultures in the Russian space. And we stand strong! You and us, Ukrainians and Poles, together, side by side, will return all this evil with an epitaph to Russian imperialism.
You and us, Poland, side by side will establish freedom in Europe forever. Tyranny will lose in history when it loses in Ukraine. Moscow will not kill, and Petersburg will not divide. Never again.
On this glorious square and on any other Polish square, as well as on all Ukrainian maidans, there will never be Russia again – after our victory.
Are there still many steps to it? No. It is only necessary not to stop in solidarity. When a battle requires artillery, it should be provided. When victory requires tanks, their roar must be heard on the frontline. When independence needs air, you shouldn’t pay attention to how Russia will react to our planes, you shouldn’t guess which number will look safer next to the letter F – 16 or some other. You should take action!
Take action in the same way as your leadership manifested itself in the tank coalition, I believe that it will also manifest itself in the aviation coalition. Because this is a battle for freedom, and it is impossible to win it partially.
When our ally, a powerful ally of freedom, President Biden spoke in Warsaw recently, he said: “There is no sweeter word than freedom. There is no nobler goal than freedom. There is no higher aspiration than freedom.”
We, Ukrainians and Poles, are well aware of this. Therefore, there is no such issue between us that we will not solve in order to strengthen our common defense. Therefore, this visit of mine, negotiations here in Warsaw, became another step towards victory. And I thank you for the decisions approved today! For a powerful defense package. Thank you for the lives that we save with our solidarity together!
Dear Polish people!
I am sure you know that solidarity now covers much more than the fate of our two peoples. When you and us are free, it is a guarantee that freedom will be strong in all our countries – neighbors in the European Union. Romania and Slovakia, Lithuania and other Baltic countries… Everyone is stronger when we are free. When we are free, it is a guarantee that freedom will endure in Moldova, will not leave Georgia and will come… will definitely come to Belarus.
The more freedom we have around us, the more guarantees justice will have. That our common enemy will be held to account. Will be held to account justly – for Bykivnia and Bucha, for Katyn and Smolensk. Will be held to account to the end of his life here on earth, and forever before God.
Justice will be the historical achievement of our generations, and the way is also paved by our brotherhood. By Ukrainians and Poles walking side by side.
Polish brothers and sisters!
Just a few generations ago, everything on which our power is now based was just a task.
Jerzy Giedroyc taught that “there is no independent Poland without an independent Ukraine.” This is learned.
And I would continue: Russia cannot win in Europe when a Ukrainian and a Pole stand side by side. Let’s learn it.
And just as you and us, Poland, stand together in this war, we will also enjoy peace. Together! Side by side in everything. Together in the European Union, together in NATO. This is the continuation of our destiny of free nations!
We must bolster the historical understanding between our peoples with everything. Everything! Everything that we have to solve for the interests and peace of our societies must be solved. From military and political, economic and energy cooperation to the painstaking work of historians.
When we accept that human life is the highest value, we honor the memory and dignity of every person. Everyone who lived before us. Everyone who requires respect. And there should be no prohibitions here… It is our mutual and absolute respect that will bring Ukrainian and Polish culture to the world. Always! Because we were saved forever by our unity, our resolve.
Dear Rzeszów! I thank you for becoming the first rescuer city for Ukraine!
Przemyśl! Lublin! Chełm! Thank you! For reaching out to our people at a time when it was most needed!
Gdańsk and Wrocław! Katowice and Białystok! Kraków and Warsaw! Every city in Poland that has become so hospitable to our people! I thank you!
Thank you for the fact that Ukrainian children in Poland can live in respect, and Ukrainian adults received a law from the Polish state that guarantees them the same rights and opportunities that your people have!
Thank you to all the volunteers of Poland – you can make it louder for the volunteers – who help our people here, on Polish soil, and in Ukraine, even risking their lives!
Thank you to everyone who trains Ukrainian soldiers on Polish soil!
And I thank every Polish heart that speaks its prayers for Ukrainians as well!
Dear Ukrainians in Poland!
We work every day to expel the enemy from Ukraine, to restore security to all our cities and villages, so that our people who have found refuge in other countries can return home.
And I thank all of you who help the state!
Dear Poles! All Europeans!
I wish you happy upcoming Easter holidays! And I wish everyone a victory of life over aggression, a victory in the battles that are taking place now in Ukraine!
Glory to all our warriors who are fighting for our freedom!
Слава Україні!
Chwała Polsce!
You’ll never walk alone @ZelenskyyUa 🇵🇱🤝🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/CPvViiODio
— Andrzej Duda (@AndrzejDuda) April 5, 2023
Here is a machine translation of the Ukrainian MOD’s most recent operational update:
Here are all the details of the US military aid package to Ukraine announced yesterday:
Today, on NATO's birthday, the US announced another package of security assistance for Ukraine, which, among other things, increases the #UAarmy's compatibility with the Alliance.
We are determined to fight and win this war.
Thank you, @POTUS @SecDef and the American people. pic.twitter.com/A9rmTPfIFu— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) April 4, 2023
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situations in Kreminna, Avdiivka, and Bakhmut:
KREMINNA AXIS / 2310 UTC 4 APL/ RU forces increased operational tempo on the Kreminna axis. RU attacks were were repelledat Novoliubivka, Kuzmyne, Dibrova, Serebryansk Forestry and Bilohorvika. pic.twitter.com/bCA0FUyreR
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) April 4, 2023
AVDIIVKA AXIS /1510 UTC 5 APL/ UKR forces maintain positions N and W of the urban areas. RU forces were rebuffed at Novokalynove, Stepove and Pervomaiske. pic.twitter.com/bKLlSRPHsQ
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) April 5, 2023
BAKHMUT AXIS /1215 UTC 5 APL/ During the night of 4-5 APL, contacts were reported E of Bakhmut. These may have been UKR SOF raids, or target designation ops for a series of Artillery / Missile strikes on RU electronic warfare and HQ elements [positions approximate]. pic.twitter.com/g3sNpETBas
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) April 5, 2023
Balkhmut:
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 5, 2023
Soldiers from Ukraine’s 93rd Mechanized Brigade using a MICLIC against Russian/Wagner positions in southern Bakhmut. https://t.co/6ALkwnL9vd pic.twitter.com/re3aGaGvSn
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 5, 2023
Video from Ukraine's TERRA unit showing UAV-corrected artillery strikes on a Russian observation post and bunker near Bakhmut. It takes several rounds until they achieve a direct hit on the bunker.https://t.co/lVMnyn668D pic.twitter.com/W6SUHUZPnh
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 4, 2023
The commander of the unit began the video by saying that there is a lack of artillery ammunition on their part of the front (possibly because it is being conserved), and they are trying to compensate by crowdfunding UAVs that can drop munitions or be used as kamikaze drones. 3/ pic.twitter.com/ptizH9Js2I
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 4, 2023
Vuhledar:
Interesting post from a Russian account of Vuhledar. Among the reasons for Russia's issues there, he says Ukraine holds favorable positions, good OPs, the terrain nearby is flat with little cover, and Ukraine is heavily using UAVs to aid artillery fire.https://t.co/rS3sOtA8ar pic.twitter.com/YO7N6k2Bxc
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 5, 2023
Here’s a machine translation of the full text:
And the rest of the thread:
Different UAVs operate on different frequencies, and a single C-UAS gun (he had an LPD-801) isn't that effective because other UAVs will drop grenades on the operator or artillery will target him. He says they need better counter UAV EW systems. 3/
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 5, 2023
Climb to Glory!
More apparent confirmation.https://t.co/gM1oIk9f9l pic.twitter.com/AzuysZcERl
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 5, 2023
My name is Peggy…
Of course this is not the real transcript of the conversation he has with the unknown person on the other end of the line. But it illustrates how Prigozhin is keeping the Russian war machine alive. Without him, Russia would be in serious trouble.
— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) April 5, 2023
Best response so far!
— 🚀 🇫🇷 ArCaDi_💸DOGE (@arcadiisback) April 5, 2023
Obligatory!
Moving along the front lines you will see not only horrors of war but striking signs of humanity. People who have lost everything because of the constant Russian attacks, take care of pets and share the last with them. pic.twitter.com/TeNzfN5nxW
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 5, 2023
The floofy boy is INNOCENT!!!!
— Margo Gontar 🇺🇦 (@MargoGontar) April 5, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns Нова серія мультику вже на YouTube! Посилання в шапці профілю🤗
And here’s the full video that’s being teased above!
Open thread!
Old School
It took me too long to figure that one out.
I hope you get a good night’s sleep tonight.
Alison Rose
Zelenskyy’s speech in Poland was absolutely beautiful, and as usual, so powerfully delivered. I highly recommend letting it play while you follow along with the transcript. (I trust most of us have picked up a a handful or two of Ukrainian words, enough to help you keep pace reading while listening.)
A fun lil video clip to watch
They really need to step up the anti-smoking campaigns in russia.
The doggo is a very good boy. Give him all the cheese and cookies he wants!
Thank you as always, Adam, and Chag Pesach Sameach from me to you, and also from Zelenskyy:
Geminid
@Alison Rose: President Zelenskyy’s speeches are so consistently brilliant it would be easy to take them for granted. The man is a master of rhetoric.
West of the Rockies
The new Twitter dog looks like the above dog to me. I had hoped when it first showed up instead of a blue bird it was because UKR had hacked Elmo.
Chief Oshkosh
Check for a fried varmint somewhere along the line…
Thanks again for your thoughtful updates. Even when you’re punchy, you’re way better than the so-called experts in the MSM.
Sister Golden Bear
Battle of the Food Box
Location
Tent, Eastern Ukraine
Belligerents
Ukrainian soldiers: 26 Dog: 1
Commanders
Ukrainians: Unknown Dog: Hungry Fella
Result
Dog victory.
Casualties and losses
Cheese, cookies, spilled sugar, coffee
Alison Rose
@Chief Oshkosh:
typical orc meal
cain
Meanwhile Putin when he speaks inspires a different kind of emotion. Like the spectacle of two clowns slapping each other.
Odie Hugh Manatee
Thank you for the updates, Adam. Between your updates/assessments and a thread about this over at Profession Pilots Rumour Network, I get pretty much all I need for daily updates. The PPRuNe forum is a great place to read about aviation events, many of which never make the news. Their thread on Ukraine has been going for three years now and has over 16,000 posts in it from all around the world with some really interesting commentary.
Fuck Putin, too.
Jay
West of the Rockies
There was a report a few days ago about intelligence scouring the internet for comments referring to Putin as a bald, thieving dwarf. I think stupid was in there, too.
I will add a couple more adjectives he may not like: Vladimir Putin is an ugly thief. He is bald as a baby’s ass. He is very stupid and a smells like a poop.
Gin & Tonic
Knowing the long and complex history of Poles and Ukrainians, this is pretty remarkable. And mentioning Pilsudski is <chef’s kiss> as a Ukrainian nationalist attempted to assassinate him when he visited Lviv.
Alison Rose
@Jay: Repugnant. The pain in her voice is heartbreaking, which of course means it has no effect on those assholes, since they’re lacking the necessary part.
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: I have a strong feeling that history books (outside of russia, China, Iran, Florida, and a few other places) are going to look quite kindly on Zelenskyy. Ukraine and Ukrainians as a whole, of course, and him in particular.
Captain C
@West of the Rockies: Also, babies and pets hate him. He cheats at hockey.
Dan B
@Jay: Awful. It’s too typical of religion to go so completely opposite of their teachings. It often becomes a haven for people who consistently fail at being humane.
Dan B
The reports about a high level official in Russian Intelligence who was in tegular contact with Putin are clear just how extreme Putin’s separation from reality us and how paranoid he is about his life. It’s clear he and his ilk must be removed from power if Russia is going to become less dangerous.
Dan B
On another topic, Governor Tate Reeves of Mississippi has declared April “Confederate Heritage Month”. I wonder if anyone besides me had an immediate image of possible / likely outfits.
White for the menfolk and crinoline for the ladies?
zhena gogolia
@West of the Rockies: Me too.
zhena gogolia
@Gin & Tonic: I’ve been wanting to make a comment like this since watching Zelenskyy speaking Polish at the beginning, but I couldn’t think of a literate way to do it. Lots of history there.
Dan B
@zhena gogolia: Paranoid hypochondriac also accurate if less incendiary.
Spanky
@Dan B: Is it really paranoia if most of the world really is out to get him?
Steeplejack
@Dan B:
What reports are you talking about?
Roberto el oso
@Gin & Tonic: as a Polish-American (on my mom’s side) VZ’s speech really warmed my heart.
Odie Hugh Manatee
@Dan B:
Talk about a participation trophy….lol! Does that mean we get to spend all month reminding Mississippi that they lost the Civil War?
Because I’m all on board for that…
Mallard Filmore
@Dan B:
A parade with that theme could be interesting. Dress up as a plantation foreman, whips, chains, whipping post … Real
kinkyeducational stuff.smith
@Dan B: You missed the punch line: He dated his proclamation April 31, 2023.
Redshift
According to the WaPo,
She even threw out the first pitch at the Nationals’ home opener!
lowtechcyclist
@Dan B:
United States Constitution, Article III, Section 3:
Was the rebellion of the self-styled Confederate States of America in enmity to the United States? It sure was! And maybe Tate Reeves isn’t giving aid and comfort to the rebellion itself, but he sure is doing so for those who dishonor the United States by honoring the memory of that rebellion.
Close enough for me. Lock his treasonous ass up!!
lowtechcyclist
@smith:
A tribute to the quality of Mississippi’s educational system.
Andrya
@Sister Golden Bear: Totally hilarious!
Chetan Murthy
@Gin & Tonic: Do you have any thoughts on Zelenskiyy’s “no borders between Poland and Ukraine” statement? I thought to myself: “this is a kind of forward-looking statement of unity, that is an attempt to completely overcome the past — to whatever extent there were divisions between Poland and Ukraine”. I mean, I remember that it wasn’t *so* long ago that Poland and Ukraine weren’t on the best of terms, but here basically Zelenskiyy is saying “we want to be so close that we’re inseparable”.
Maybe I’m reading too much into it.
Chetan Murthy
@smith: wait, wut? Really? no, you’re pullin’ our legs! No! couldn’t be!
Andrya
@Chetan Murthy: My read was that both Poland and Ukraine would be in the EU- which allows free travel between member states. May that day come soon!
jackmac
There will hopefully come a day after the war ends that Ukraine will rebuild and join the EU and NATO. When that occurs, the friendship and collaboration between Poland and Ukraine will be collectively strong in both economic and military spheres, perhaps the most powerful combination in Europe.
Rich Webb
Only if you’re comfortable opening the unit up…
Check on-line for an installation / maintenance manual for your unit. I’ve only run Carriers lately and they’re pretty good at making those available. YMMV.
Turn off the thermostat. Open the breaker and, if you’re not the only one in the house, tag it open. Pull the link.
Something that will eventually fail is the start/run capacitor for the compressor. There’s often more than one cap, with the second running the blower motor, or you could have a dual cap with two in one can. You can try swapping the cap out for one with the same capacitance and voltage rating.
Several on-line guides have more info. Ex: https://www.wikihow.com/Replace-an-Air-Conditioning-Unit%27s-Run-Capacitor
Discharge the cap!
scav
It’s unclear what ississippi actually is, but MS is certainly going without it. Losing a traitorous uprising is their eternally celebrated high point of culture.
Gin & Tonic
@Chetan Murthy:
Whatever extent? Uhm, yea. The history is fraught, with tens of thousands of deaths on each site in the closing days of WWII alone, and military conquests and conflicts dating back to at least the 16th C.
That said, I view such a comment as a rhetorical device, not a political aspiration.
Chetan Murthy
@Gin & Tonic:
Thank you. You’re answering the precise question I was asking!
Gin & Tonic
@Gin & Tonic: Should have been “on each side.”
Carlo Graziani
That list of US weapons supplied to Ukraine has some interesting highlights.
Grad rockets? Where are those coming from? Does the US have its own Warsaw Pact junkyard, or is it just flipping them from Bulgaria, or some such place?
18 tactical recovery vehicles, 9 heavy fuel tankers, 105 fuel trailers, 20 heavy equipment transport trucks with trailers, 4 “logistics support vehicles” (HEMTTs?), Armored bridging systems.
That’s assault gear. None of it looks like the kind of infinite-logistical-tail stuff that takes many months to deploy (like, say HIMARS), so it could get to the UA right away.
I can’t wait to see that next act.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: Trent Telenko (IIUC, he has some problematic history, but his writings on the UA war seem solid) has argued that fuel transport is a key logistics capability for this war. That and containerized logistics for everything else.
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: Yeah. From July to September 1944, the most serious constraining limitation on the advance of Allied forces in Europe was not ammunition, but fuel. Any motorized formation on the move, or even just in action, consumes lakes of gas, or kerosene.
The interesting thing is that we know that the Pentagon was been helping the UA wargame the offensive that everyone knows is coming. And they seem to have decided to go long on supplying the offensive maneuver capabilities. It would be nice to know about off-headlines supplies such as how many thousands of tons of vehicle fuel are being furnished to Ukraine. That would give us some idea of the scope of maneuvers in contemplation. Which is also the likely reason that such statistics are secret and closely-held…
Bill Arnold
@Steeplejack:
Here (there is an option for English):
“The Russian President is a war criminal” – Interview with the Federal Guard Service officer who worked with Putin and who fled Russia (April 4, 2023)
Piece ends with
It is worth a read, IMO.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
Intercepted arms smuggling shipments and international markets.
Saw a vid the other day of UA forces unboxing Iranian made 122mm Grads.
Bill Arnold
@Bill Arnold:
FWIW, that site is in Russian, but resolves to US IP addresses, at least the IPV4 addresses.
Associated with or maybe run by Mikhail Khodorkovsky according to the about page.
Bill Arnold
@West of the Rockies:
There are things I might say about V. Putin that will not be said using this non-anonymous nym.
But yes, always assume that at the very least Spiders From Mars (metaphor; web crawlers) are watching.
way2blue
Adam, I hope you were able to get your A/C working today! (Given that nights in Northern California are in the 40s—took me a while to comprehend how warm Florida is… In April!)
Steeplejack
@Bill Arnold:
Thanks.
Geminid
Someone here was wondering about Ukraine’s exports of sunflower seed oil under the Black Sea grain export initiative. The Wall Street Journal had an article about this on March 6, titled “Ukraine’s sunflower exports calm cooking oil market”:
The article notes that Russian attacks damaged processing infrastructure and that ports dedicated to shipping oil are “essentially closed.” So the seeds are being exported instead and are being pressed in other countries. After Russia’s re-invasion, the price of sunflower seed oil jumped to $2,414 per ton on world markets but has now fallen to around $1,049 per ton.
In negotiations leading to the extension of the Black Sea grain deal on March 18, Ukraine requested that a port close to Kherson be included in the program, perhaps because it was a seed oil hub. That apparently has not happened, but the basic deal was extended for another 120 days according to the UN and Turkiye, but only 60 days according to Russia.
When the latest extension was announced, a top Ukrainian official credited Turkish President Erdoglan and interestingly, his Defense Minister. As he had last October, when Russia tried to suspend the deal after a sea-drone attack on Sevastopol harbor, the Defense Minister very publically asserted that the grain deal furthered Turkiye’s vital interests, and would continue for 120 days whether or not Russia wanted it to.