Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

White supremacy is terrorism.

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

the 10% who apparently lack object permanence

Hey Washington Post, “Democracy Dies in Darkness” was supposed to be a warning, not a mission statement.

You cannot love your country only when you win.

Stop using mental illness to avoid talking about armed white supremacy.

Conservatism: there are people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

The cruelty is the point; the law be damned.

75% of people clapping liked the show!

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

Russian mouthpiece, go fuck yourself.

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

One way or another, he’s a liar.

Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

I really should read my own blog.

You come for women, you’re gonna get your ass kicked.

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

You’re just a puppy masquerading as an old coot.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 408: A Brief Friday Night Update

War for Ukraine Day 408: A Brief Friday Night Update

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Last night in comments, which I did read when I got up this AM just like I do everyday in case I can’t hang out after I publish the update, there was some questions and discussion regarding the NY Times‘ reporting about leaked US-NATO plans. Here’s The Kyiv Independent‘s reporting on that story: (emphasis mine)

Secret American and NATO plans for supplying aid to Ukraine ahead of its expected upcoming offensive were posted on social media earlier this week, prompting an investigation by the Pentagon, senior Biden administration officials told the New York Times.

The plans were posted to the social media networks Twitter and Telegram, and the Pentagon is investigating who may have leaked the documents, according to the NYT.

The documents do not reveal details of when, how, or where Ukraine intends to launch its counteroffensive and are five weeks old. According to military analysts with whom the NYT spoke, the documents were likely modified from their original format, understating the casualties on the Russian side and overstating those on the Ukrainian side.

The analysts told the NYT that the changes made to the document could be part of a Russian disinformation campaign to distort facts about the war in Ukraine. Nonetheless, the leak is a “significant breach of American intelligence in the effort to aid Ukraine,” the NYT wrote.

Biden officials told the newspaper that attempts to get the information deleted from social media had not yet proved successful.

“We are aware of the reports of social media posts, and the department is reviewing the matter,” said Sabrina Singh, the NYT quoted the deputy press secretary at the Pentagon as saying.

Leaving aside the altered KIA figures, even if the leaked plans are genuine, I’m not sure what leaking them gives away. It is not exactly a state secret anywhere that the US, our NATO, and our non-NATO allies are providing significant military and financial aid to Ukraine for its defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion. Or that such aid is coordinated and planned. It is not exactly news that specific weapons systems or munitions have been requested by Ukraine and that the official position of the Biden administration has been some combination of yes here you go, we’ll consider it, but we don’t think it would be useful, or not right now, but maybe in the future. Nor that some of our allies are advocating for more and faster and others are like “whatever the US does, we’ll go along with”, etc. And given the fact that once the decisions are made DOD officials or our partners MOD officials actually announce them, give reporters readouts with lists, do Q&A with reporters answering questions regarding what is being given and why, eventually what is being given is officially made public. We know the KIA details have been altered. I expect significant other portions will have been as well. Given the Starlink Snowflake’s fragile ego and general inability for rational decision making even when it would be in his own best interest, I doubt the Biden administration will be able to get it off of Twitter. I have no idea if it is even possible to get something taken off of Telegram.

If you were wondering what they looked like, The Wall Street Journal‘s Yaroslav Trofimov has the details:

Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

The world should know: respect and order will return to international relations only when the Ukrainian flag returns to Crimea – address of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

7 April 2023 – 23:14

Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!

Today was a busy day.

First, the meeting of the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. The main focus is on the battles for Avdiyivka and Bakhmut, for Luhansk region, for each of those directions where the enemy is trying to break the defense of the whole of Ukraine.

And I thank every soldier, sergeant, officer, and general who stands against it. Those who gain stability for Ukraine – for the whole state – right there, in the battles at the hottest spots of the frontline.

The task force commanders, the Commander-in-Chief, and intelligence reported at the meeting of the Staff.

Separately – training of new brigades. Supply of ammunition and weapons to the troops.

Second, the NSDC staff, together with the Government, together with ministries, is preparing a new potent list of sanctions against persons who work for aggression. They will be blocked.

Third, I held a long meeting devoted to energy, both strategic issues – the development and protection of our energy system under any conditions, and current issues – the energy supply of our people and Ukrainian business.

Fourth, we are adding a new tradition of respect to the official life of our state.

Hundreds of thousands of Muslims in Ukraine and the Muslim community of the world – different countries, different nations – observe a strict fast during the holy month of Ramadan. When the sun sets, the Iftar dinner takes place.

In Ukraine, it is respected everywhere, and even at the frontline, even in combat conditions. The Crimean Tatar people respect Ramadan… Respect should always be mutual. Therefore, starting this year, such a special event of respect will be held annually in Ukraine with the participation of the Head of State. And today for the first time – in the Crimean Tatar cultural center.

The world should know: respect and order will return to international relations only when the Ukrainian flag returns to Crimea, when there is freedom there – just like everywhere else in Ukraine.

I had the honor to reward our soldiers, Ukrainian Muslims, who are fighting together with everyone in the defense forces of Ukraine. I had the honor of sharing Iftar with our soldiers, representatives of the Mejlis, and the entire Ukrainian Muslim community.

And I want to thank everyone in the big world Muslim community who supports our principle – the principle that no one is allowed to destroy the peace with aggression, which is given to everyone on Earth equally by God, who values every nation as much as we do in Ukraine.

And fifth. Today, I signed several decrees on awarding state awards to our soldiers. 771 fighters.

Soldiers of mechanized brigades, assault brigades, ground defense brigades, our anti-aircraft fighters, tactical aviation, artillery, reconnaissance battalions, engineering brigades, tankers. During the full-scale war, totally over 43,500 of our defenders were awarded state awards.

I thank everyone who defends the state! Glory to all who are now fighting for Ukraine!

And I congratulate everyone who celebrates the Annunciation today! We pray for the victory of our soldiers and the salvation of all our people from the evil of occupation!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is a machine translation of the Ukrainian MOD’s most recent operational update, which comes in two parts tonight:

Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
! ️Operational information as of 18.00 07.04.2023 regarding the Russian invasion

Glory to Ukraine! The four hundred and eighth days of large-scale armed aggression of the Russian federation against our state continue.

During the day, the enemy inflicted 2 missile and 14 air strikes, fired more than 10 shots from volley jet systems at the positions of our troops and civilian infrastructure of settlements.

The probability of the task of missile and aviation strikes remains high throughout Ukraine.

The enemy continues to focus on the main efforts to carry out offensive operations in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiyevsky and Marjinsky directions – more than 40 enemy attacks were repulsed during the day.

In the Volynsky, Polissya, Sieversky and Slobozhansky directions, the operational situation without significant changes, signs of the formation of offensive groups of the enemy were not detected. In the border areas of the Kursk region, the enemy continues the engineering equipment of the area. During the day, the enemy fired on the settlements of Leonovka, the Gremier of the Chernihiv region; Novovasilivka, Zarutske, Sumy region, as well as the settlements of Guryiv Kozachok, Upper Pysarya, Graf, Karaychna, Ambarne, Bologok in Kharkivshchyna.

In the Kupyan direction, enemy shelling was carried out by the settlements of Topoli, Fygolivka, Dvorichna, Zapadne, Krokhmalne, Gusinka, Kindrashivka, Kharkiv Oblast, and Novoselivska in Luhanshchyn.

In the Lyman direction, the enemy led unsuccessful offensive actions in the area of Serebryansky Forestry and Upper Kamenetsky. The artillery shelling has once again been carried out by Makiyivka, Nevske, Dibrov, Kuzmina, the White Roar of the Luhansk region and the Spirne and Berestov region of Donetschina.

In the Bakhmut direction, the enemy continues to lead offensive actions, tries to take full control of the city of Bakhmut, fighting continues. During the day, the enemy led unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Bogdanivka and Ivanovsky. Defense forces repulsed about 14 enemy attacks in the area. Vasyukivka, Minkivka, Bakhmut, Bogdanivka, Ivanivsky, Kurdyumivka, Bila Gora, Novodmitryka, Druzhba and Dilyivka of the Donetsk region were affected by enemy shelling.

In the Avdiyevsky and Mariinsky directions, the enemy led unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Novokalinov, Severny, Pervomaisky, Mariinka and Pobeda. The fiercest fighting on this part of the front continues behind Marinka, where more than 10 enemy attacks have been repulsed. At the same time, the enemy was shelled by Novobakhmutivka, Avdiyivka, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Karlyivka, Georgivka, Marjinka and Pobed in the Donetsk region.

In the Shakhtar direction during the day, the enemy did not carry out offensive actions. He shot Vugledar, Kermenchyk, Novomayorske, Golden Niva, Shakhtar, Velyka Novosilka of the Donetsk region.

In the Zaporizhia and Kherson directions, the enemy continues to increase in fortification defensive boundaries and positions. He fired on settlements. Among them – Vremivka of the Donetsk region; Zatyshya, Gulyaypole, Gulyaypol, Bialyogir and Kamyanzhya of the Zaporizhia region; Gavrilivka, Berislav, Vessel, Antonivka, Beregove, Velitske Herson region, as well as Herson.

The Russian occupiers are actively pursuing the forced passportization of the population of the temporarily occupied territories of the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, exerting psychological and physical pressure on people. In particular, at checkpoints, the enemy restricts the movement of Ukrainian citizens who have not received passports from the Russian federation. The occupiers purposefully and intentionally search vehicles, record all personal data of citizens who do not have Russian documents, threaten to ban entry into the city. The enemy also forces the postman to distribute to the local population forms in which information about the presence of a Russian passport must be provided. Citizens who do not have a hostile passport are subjected to constant searches, intimidation and coercion to obtain this document.The occupiers are actively threatening to forcibly evict their homes and confiscate private property in the event of a refusal to obtain a Russian passport.

At the same time, for the same reason, the enemy threatens the parents of graduate students to refuse the certificates of basic secondary education received by children.
Invaders also force to change the marriage certificate and the certificate of registration of technical means from Ukrainian to Russian samples.During the day, the Defense Forces aircraft struck 9 times in the areas of concentration of the occupiers.
In addition, a Russian Su-25 attack aircraft was destroyed near Marinka.
units of missile troops and artillery, in turn, destroyed the enemy’s ammunition depot.Support the Armed Forces! Let’s win!
Glory to Ukraine!

🇺🇦General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

If you were  wondering what Ukrainian Air Defense is doing…

It’s killing Russian SU-25s in Marinka! From the Airborne and Assault Troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s Telegram channel (machine translated):

🪂Paratroopers destroyed another Russian attack aircraft Su-25 “Grach”

🔺Today, April 7, another Russian attack aircraft Su-25 “Grach” was shot down in the Dončín, an air defense unit of one of the military units of the Landing and Assault Troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Together for Victory! DShV – Always First! Glory to Ukraine!🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

#stoprussia #DShV #ZSU #Always_First #UkrainianAirAssaultForces
#AirAssaultForces #WarInUkraine #RussianAggression
#BattleOfUkrainianAirAssaultForces

And what about the Ukrainian Air Force? Happy hunting!

And a word from the Ukrainian Air Force too:

The heart wants what it wants…

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Bakhmut:

Bakhmut:

Zaphorizhzhia:

Avdiivka:

Kyiv:

Breaks glass, gets out emergency tiara, frilly apron, and matching oven mitts…

That’s enough for tonight!

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Ну бо дійсно ж гарну палицю знайшов! #песпатрон

♬ оригинальный звук – Дашик🥰

And here’s a machine translation of the caption:

I really found a good stick! #песпатрон

Whatever the issues were affecting my ability to copy, paste, highlight, and/or machine translate TikTok appear to have been resolved.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

50Comments

  1. 1.

    japa21

    Thanks once again, Adam.  I have a hunch same big things are coming by the end of the month.

  3. 3.

    Mallard Filmore

    … regarding the NY Times‘ reporting about leaked US-NATO plans. …

    The leak is bigger that.  From https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143057134

    … The scale of the leak — analysts say more than 100 documents may have been obtained … The latest documents were found on Twitter and other sites on Friday, a day after senior Biden administration officials said they were investigating a potential leak of classified Ukrainian war plans, include an assessment of Ukraine’s air defense capabilities. One slide, dated Feb. 23, is labeled “Secret/NoForn,” meaning it was not meant to be shared with foreign countries.

    [SNIP] For compliance with copyright rules.

    Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/07/us/politics/classified-documents-leak.html

  4. 4.

    Gin & Tonic

    That “leaked” disinfo ain’t going away, as it hopped from Telegram to 4Chan in a matter of minutes.

  5. 5.

    Geminid

    From an interview of of Secretary of State Anthony Blinken by Euro News:

       …asked whether the United States believed that Sweden will join NATO in the near future, Blinken said: “I am convinced that this will happen soon. I expect that by the NATO summit to be held this July in Vilnius, Sweden will join Finland as new members of NATO.

    euronews.com April 7 2023

  6. 6.

    Argiope

    Wow, I’m going to try some onion skin eggs this year.  And yes to the emergency tiara! Thanks for the reassurance on the leak front, Adam.  It seemed that way to me (not a 4-alarm fire) based on my early read, but it’s much better hearing you say it. I have much more confidence in your assessment. I still wonder who got the info and how.

  7. 7.

    Jay

    Bellingcat is digging in. Apparently the doc’s were first posted to a Discord server over a month ago, copied from another site that the poster can’t remember.

    Not posting it for now but in short: all of the images (including the ones on 4chan and shared by Russian TG channels) were shared early March. The source is even sillier than 4chan.There are 10 total documents in the original leak. Some I haven't seen posted anywhere else.— Aric Toler (@AricToler) April 7, 2023

  10. 10.

    Jay

    Sourcing updates:Lucca apparently got these leaked files from another poster on a Discord server called "Thug Shaker Central" (not joking). He then reposted them on the WowMao server. The leaked files went back at least to January of this year.— Aric Toler (@AricToler) April 7, 2023

  11. 11.

    Argiope

    @Adam L Silverman: Understood. I would really love it a lot if Ukraine didn’t have to deal with a big security breach mess on top of all the other challenges. Especially if the leak is coming from somewhere on this side of Atlantic. Here’s hoping.

  12. 12.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Mallard Filmore:

    One slide, dated Feb. 23, is labeled “Secret/NoForn,” meaning it was not meant to be shared with foreign countries.

    Were any of the documents classified “Top Secret”?

    “Secret” is a middle classification between “Confidential” and “Top Secret”. It covers somewhat sensitive, damaging information, but nothing like actual allied war plans—those would certainly be “Top Secret” plus a code word that further restricts circulation from over 1 million Top-Secret-cleared people to a few dozen, potentially even fewer.

    NOFORN is practically a bureaucratic reflex.

    If this was a Russian intelligence op, just the fact that they chose to use the documents for public relations purposes rather than as actionable intelligence tells us how little value they have as military intelligence. The Russians just set the FBI on the warpath to find the person who sold them chickenfeed, for the sake of discomfiting the Biden administration in the media. They would probably not do that if they had a real source, because of the risk that their real assets might be compromised in the investigation.

  13. 13.

    PaulB

    John Judis, over at TPM, strikes again with a singularly ill-informed post about the war in Ukraine. Why does Josh keep him on? He has decided, based solely on Bakhmut info, that:

    …the war is stalemated, and that it is unlikely that Ukraine’s forces will win the ‘victory’ that many of Washington’s foreign policy experts have either projected or advocated as an essential objective.

    Why the word victory is in quotes he doesn’t bother to explain. Final paragraph:

    There are, as I see it, only two ways to break such a stalemate: Escalated military intervention by the United States and its NATO allies, which could lead to a wider war; or a vigorous push for an armistice and eventually a negotiated settlement. The latter will have to include a large role for China. I favor the latter option. One can argue that it is too difficult currently to press for negotiations. But I believe it should be the American government’s objective. And this means recognizing that there are important instances where the United States needs to work with China’s leadership.

    The whole thing is just unmitigated horseshit, from beginning to end, from someone who has no idea what they are talking about.

  14. 14.

    Anoniminous

    Footage from the side of Wagner ….

    *throwing up hands*
    What in the world did those clueless fools think they were doing?

    Also somebodies need to learn how to fire automatic weapons. The only thing extended bursts do is burn the barrel out and spray the target with near misses.

  15. 15.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Argiope: If these are marked Secret and NOFORN – the classification level is secret and access is restricted solely to US personnel with that level of clearance or higher with a need to know –  or Secret and Five Eyes – the classification level is secret and access is restricted solely to US and Five Eyes partner personnel with that level of clearance or higher with a need to know – then the leak did not come from Ukraine.

  17. 17.

    japa21

    @Adam L Silverman: One might wonder just who in the government, perhaps left over from the Trump administration, and more a friend of Russia than Ukraine, might have had access.

  19. 19.

    Another Scott

    @Jay:

    This is why laws criminalizing the willful retention and disclosure of classified docs must be enforced. Without enforcement, there is no deterrence to commit such acts. https://t.co/9psG2JKMWf

    — Brandon Van Grack (@BVanGrack) April 8, 2023

    Lucca better hope he can get a good lawyer.

    (via nycsouthpaw)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  20. 20.

    Anoniminous

    Re: Information Leak

    Sounds like a bunch of hooey. Reminds me of Operation Fortitude, the invasion of Pas-de-Calais in 1944 by General Patton’s First US Army Group.

  24. 24.

    Carlo Graziani

    From the earlier NYT report on the document leak:

    But an intelligence leak of this sort, posted on social media and available around the world, is bound to harm intelligence sharing between Ukraine and the United States.

    Bingo.

    ETA: That article also pointed to one document marked “Top Secret”. Which narrows the suspect list down to about 1.3 million people cleared for such access, several of whom probably practice shitty computer information security.

  25. 25.

    Anoniminous

    @Carlo Graziani:

    The NYT was absolutely sure Saddam was buying Yellow Cake uranium from Nigeria* and had mobile bio-warfare laboratories hidden in .  In short, they are full of shit on a regular basis.

    * from a Nigerian Prince, no doubt

  27. 27.

    bbleh

    @Carlo Graziani:  …which narrows the suspect list down to about 1.3 million people cleared for such access…

    A situation that might perhaps be considered possibly worth looking into.

    @japa21: ... more a friend of Russia than Ukraine …

    Sadly rather numerous in the party that for some reason still considers itself the more responsible regarding national security.

  28. 28.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Anoniminous: Stopped Clock, and all that.

    That NYT quote about spoiling intelligence cooperation between US and Ukraine, strikes me as the most plausible explanation for this leak, irrespective of other faults of NYT reporting. And note that all this is in essential agreement that as valuable military intelligence goes, the documents are, as you say, “a bunch of hooey.”

  29. 29.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Adam L Silverman: Yep, good catch.

    Now all the FBI has to do is question everyone with a TS clearance and check their computer security. If they can do 10 per business day it shouldn’t take more than 4 centuries or so 😐.

  31. 31.

    Anoniminous

    @Carlo Graziani: ​

    *IF* it is a leak and not our Infotainment Mediums being played for chumps, which is more likely in my not so humble cynically jaded opinion.

  32. 32.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Carlo Graziani:

    Why is it “bound” to harm intelligence sharing? Why must it? There must be a way to narrow down the list of suspects quickly

  33. 33.

    Another Scott

    @Carlo Graziani: What follows is speculation:

    I would assume that the 3 Letter Agencies have been watching Discord and 4Chan and 8Chan and who knows what else for a long time.  Those sites are kinda known for pushing boundaries, and often going beyond them.

    Of course, they would need warrants to do more than sit on the public sites and see what’s happening, but getting warrants shouldn’t be difficult I wouldn’t think.

    Sources and Methods may be a big constraint too, of course.

    It would be funny if Discord were a honeypot (though it almost certainly isn’t). KrebsOnSecurity.com:

    The United Kingdom’s National Crime Agency (NCA) has been busy setting up phony DDoS-for-hire websites that seek to collect information on users, remind them that launching DDoS attacks is illegal, and generally increase the level of paranoia for people looking to hire such services.

    […]

    We’ll see!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  34. 34.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Carlo Graziani: Should be able to easily narrow it down by eliminating everyone who can’t remember their logins because they haven’t had to do so in over 90 days.

  35. 35.

    Mallard Filmore

    @Carlo Graziani: 

    Now all the FBI has to do is question everyone with a TS clearance and check their computer security. If they can do 10 per business day it shouldn’t take more than 4 centuries or so 😐.

    The time required may make the effort useless, but it won’t be THAT long. I had a Top Secret clearance some decades ago. I never saw a soldier, or a spy, or an intelligence report. There are plenty of worker bees that can be promptly scratched off the list.

  36. 36.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Every leak, especially if they make it on the front page of the NY Times, makes us, our allies, and partners wonder and worry if we can trust each other with what is determined to be information that if disclosed would cause some level of harm, all the way up to significant harm, to national security. If you told someone something you considered to be exceedingly sensitive and somehow a number of others found out would you still be willing to share anything with that person again?

  37. 37.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Another Scott: A while back, talking to someone in the OSINT community who also prepares reports for some of the TLA’s, I was surprised to learn that the TLA’s actually do not have much visibility into the darker corners of the Internet. People with clearances generally try to protect such clearances, and traffic to/from some of the sleazier sites is not a good look. Thus they rely on reports prepared for them by people without clearances who can surf wherever the data take them.

  38. 38.

    Anoniminous

    The original files should be sitting around somewhere. Unless thing have changed since last I looked there’s no such thing as a wiped server disk data in 2023. India companies, for example, make a ton of money doing backups for server farms and once backed-up the data keeps getting backed-up because it’s too costly to re-jigger everything to find and then remove specific files.

  39. 39.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Adam L Silverman:

    That’s a fair point, but I would also not want to give my enemies the satisfaction and cautiously have faith my friends/allies would find the culprits

  40. 40.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Another Scott: True. However, the model that seems to fit, in my mind, is the FSB/GRU hacking joy rides from 2016, as detailed in the Mueller report. Easy to find vulnerabilities that expose information valued for its embarrasment value by phishing attacks, easy to post that information where it is calculated to do damage. This has the feel of another Wikileaks-like romp, to me.

    Which is to say, even if the TLAs run the Discord posters to ground, the trail will go cold there so far as law enforcement is concerned.

  41. 41.

    Anoniminous

    @Gin & Tonic: ​
     
    Automated computer analysis using keywords, keyword combinations, and old fashioned WW 2 Operational Research statistical analysis can do a pretty good job of wading through the chaff to find the goodies or something needing to be looked at by a human. Even something as silly sounding as ‘Check Every 1,000th Post” will come up with something every now and again.

  42. 42.

    Eolirin

    @Anoniminous: The problem with things like Telegram channels and Discord servers is that they’re only semi-public; you can’t do automated searches unless you’ve joined the servers (or you have a backdoor into the service provider, and I doubt they do for Discord, and no way in hell they do for Telegram), and they tend to pop up and then die very quickly when they’re being used for stuff like this so the window in which you can catch the origination point is small.

  43. 43.

    Bill Arnold

    Attribution is often difficult if the adversary is competent. Who were/are the Shadow Brokers?
    And a lot of the advanced (hacking) talent is not state actors. Might do contract work for states on occasion, though. (Depending on motivation and ethics and potentially political views.)

  44. 44.

    Another Scott

    Caveat emptor, etc., but UnderstandingWar.org’s take:

    Regardless of the veracity of the reportedly leaked documents, which ISW will not speculate on, the response of Russian milbloggers to the New York Times story highlights the fear of prospective Ukrainian counteroffensives pervading the Russian pro-war information space. While several prominent Russian milbloggers immediately rejected the validity of the documents and suggested that they are fakes, they fixated on the possibility that the released documents are disinformation intended to confuse and mislead Russian military command.[3] One milblogger stated that the document leak could be part of a larger Ukrainian campaign to mislead Russian forces before a counteroffensive.[4] Another Russian milblogger noted that there is historical precedent for militaries disseminating false planning information prior to starting surprise offensives.[5] The milblogger urged their audience to be cautious in discussing where Ukrainian counteroffensives may take place due to document leak.[6] The New York Times story has therefore exposed a significant point of neuralgia in the Russian information space, and responses to the documents suggest that Russian milbloggers may be increasingly reconsidering the validity of their own assessments and speculations regarding any potential Ukrainian counteroffensives and their ability to forecast Ukrainian operations.

    Recognizing the damage caused by it simply being out in the wild, the actual value of this stuff seems to be decreasing by the hour.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  45. 45.

    Anoniminous

    @Eolirin: ​
     
    In this particular instance I’d put my money on the Intelligence agencies ability to crack site security and get full access. The fundamental, unfixable, security flaw is the von Neumann architecture itself: seamless unity of program and data space. As the saying goes, the defender has to win all the time, the attacker only has to win once.

  46. 46.

    way2blue

    @PaulB:

    I find all Judis’ posts at TPM irritating.  This one especially so, as he doesn’t even attempt to educate himself on the arc of the conflict or the fallout if his preferred resolution was implemented.  He simply says ‘I don’t know that much; it’s confusing to me; so make it stop…’.

  47. 47.

    Chetan Murthy

    @way2blue:

    I find all Judis’ posts at TPM irritating.

    I’ve stopped even looking at ’em.  He’s a piece of shit and needs to go away, retire, take up golf.

  48. 48.

    PJ

    Idle thoughts of someone who knows little about the DoD or computer forensics:

    A curious thing to me about these documents is that what is on the net is all photos of printouts.  Assuming these are not plants designed to deceive the Russians, that indicates one of two possiblities to me:

    1) whoever seeded them thought posting pdfs would provide information on where they came from that could implicate the seeder in a way that digital photos would not; or

    2) the documents belonged to an older person who printed them out to read them, and someone else who was close to them decided to take photos for their own purposes.

    If this “Lucca” person is actually a kid, as he purports, he could have taken photos of his parents’ work because he thought it would get him some cred in the gamer/4chan world, and here we are.

  50. 50.

    Another Scott

    Meanwhile, … France24.com:

    On April 4, two days after a Russian ultranationalist blogger with links to the Wagner Group militia was killed in St Petersburg, British military intelligence published a new warning on its Twitter account.

    “Russia is likely seeking to sponsor and develop alternative private military companies (PMCs) to eventually replace the Wagner Group PMC in its significant combat role in Ukraine,” said the British defence intelligence daily briefing.

    They say the “new” group is called Convoy.

    Worth a click.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

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