(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Before we get started thank all of you for the kind words last night.
Several of you have/keep asking about the leak. I recommend the analysis at this link from Bellingcat’s Aric Toler. Beyond that I can’t say much other than the little bit I wrote the other night because while I have clearance I don’t have access. As such I cannot read any of the news reporting or actually look at the images that have been posted. Cannot is not that I suddenly don’t know how to read, but that I’m not allowed. Also, my professional opinion is that you can just ignore Thomas Rid.
This summary from Convolver, however, is funny:
If you don't want to read the whole article, this is the most concise and accurate summary I've seen so far: https://t.co/PzooYbh5EJ
— Aric Toler (@AricToler) April 9, 2023
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
We must be sure that evil will lose, we must bring the defeat of evil closer, and we are bringing it closer – address by the President of Ukraine
9 April 2023 – 21:30
Ukrainians!
Tonight, the Russian army shelled Zaporizhzhia with S-300 missiles.
They hit a house, an apartment building. Three people were inside. A man, a woman and a child – a girl, her name was Iryna, she would have turned 11 this year. She died. The man died too. My condolences… The woman is in critical condition, in the hospital, she is being provided with medical care.
This is how the terrorist state spends this Palm Sunday. This is how Russia puts itself in even greater isolation from the world, from humanity.
Every bright Christian holiday teaches us that we may not know how, but we must be sure that evil will lose. We have to believe. And we believe. We must bring the defeat of evil closer. And we are bringing it closer. And the world stands with us. Every month, every week, support is increased, the circle of those who support us, who support our grit and our faith in life, increases.
I thank everyone in the world who is with Ukraine now, who is with us in deed.
I thank all our people who are eliminating the consequences of Russian shelling and helping those who have suffered from terror. In Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv region, Chernihiv region, Sumy region, Dnipropetrovsk region, Kherson region, Donbas.
I am grateful to every rescuer and doctor, every nurse, every sapper, every policeman… All representatives of local authorities in cities and villages who help people. And volunteers.
And of course, I want to thank the warriors! Everyone who is currently in battle. Everyone who repels Russian evil. Everyone who destroys the occupiers – in battle and in their rear.
We are preparing for an active new week, in particular in our international activities, to strengthen the defense, to strengthen our warriors.
And based on the results of this week, I would like to especially celebrate the marines of the 35th and 36th separate brigades, warriors of the 55th artillery brigade… They are fighting in the Donetsk region. Efficiently. Thank you guys!
I thank the warriors of the assault company of the 783rd regiment of the State Special Transport Service, the warriors of the 5th separate assault brigade and the 80th separate airborne assault brigade for the active assault actions in Bakhmut and in the Bakhmut direction… Well done, guys!
Slovyansk direction – the 30th separate mechanized brigade… Also active assault actions. Thank you guys!
I thank the warriors of the 66th separate mechanized brigade and the 95th airborne assault brigade for their steadfastness and grit in the Lyman direction.
I am thankful to the intelligence units that are fighting in the hottest areas of the frontline!
Border guards of the Luhansk and Kramatorsk detachments, combined units of the Lviv, Donetsk, Mohyliv-Podilskyi and Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi detachments… Thank you, guys!
Special forces, the 50th National Guard regiment… Thank you!
Zaporizhzhia direction – I will separately mention the warriors of the 39th anti-aircraft missile regiment. Well done, guys! Accuracy is the main thing.
And thank you to all the fighters of the Air Defense Forces and the Air Forces who reliably protect our sky!
Glory to all Ukrainian heroes! To everyone who is now in battle! To everyone who is currently in combat positions or fulfilling missions!
Eternal and bright memory to all those who gave their lives protecting the lives of Ukraine and Ukrainians!
May next year’s Palm Sunday pass in peace and freedom for all our people!
May the sincere prayers for peace of all who celebrate Easter today be heard!
Glory to Ukraine!
Happy Easter to everyone who is celebrating today!
Let this day bring all of us renewed hope.
There will be Victory!
There will be Peace!#SpringIsComing— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 9, 2023
In total, Poland will transfer 200 Rosomak armored personnel carriers to Ukraine. 100 now, another 100 later. – according to the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi. https://t.co/1PY96fj0xg pic.twitter.com/TNb55tIKKi
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 8, 2023
Here is a machine translation of the Ukrainian MOD’s most recent operational assessment:
! ️Operational information as of 18.00 09.04.2023 regarding the Russian invasion
. Glory to Ukraine! The four hundred and ten days of large-scale armed aggression of the Russian federation against our state continue.
During the current day, the enemy fired more than 10 shots from jet fire systems, inflicting 23 air and 4 missile strikes. 2 Russian missiles fired from the SAM S-300, captured at the Zaporizhia civilian infrastructure, killed and wounded among civilians, and destroyed and damaged residential buildings. Also, 2 rockets from the S-300 SAM were fired by the Russian occupiers at the Konstantinivka civilian infrastructure facility in Donetszyn.
The probability of the task of missile and aviation strikes remains high throughout Ukraine.
The enemy continues to focus on the main efforts to carry out offensive actions in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiyevsky and Marjinsky directions. During the day, thanks to the courage of every warrior, more than 40 enemy attacks were repulsed.
In the Volynsky, Polissya, Sieversky and Slobozhansky directions, the operational situation without significant changes, signs of formation of offensive groups of the enemy were not detected.
During the day, the occupiers fired on the settlements of Jasna Polyana in the Chernihiv region; Wolfin, Zapshyl and Popivka of the Sumy region, as well as the Veterinary, Kozacha Lopan, Mala Danilivka, Gatishche, Ustinivka, Milove, Velykyi Burluk and Topoli in Kharkiv region.
In the Kupyan direction, enemy shelling was carried out by Krasne First, Novomlinsk, Dvorich and Zapadne Kharkiv region.
In the Lyman direction during the day, the enemy led unsuccessful offensive actions in the area south of Dibrova. Artillery shelling was carried out by Novoselivsk, Makiyivka, Nevsky, Belogorivka, Luhansk Oblast and Kolodyazi, Torsk, Sieversk, Spirne and Berestov, Donetsk Oblast.
In the Bakhmut direction, the enemy continues to lead offensive actions, tries to take full control of the city of Bakhmut, fierce fighting continues. During the day, the enemy led unsuccessful offensive actions in the area east of the settlement of Bogdanivka and near Khromovy. Defense forces repulsed about 20 enemy attacks on the front. Vasyukivka, Minkivka, Rakhnyanske, Orykhovo-Vasylivka, Markove, Bakhmut, Khromove, Chasiv Yar, Ivanovske, Bila Gora and Druzhba of the Donetsk region were affected by enemy shelling.
In the Avdiyevsky and Mariinsky directions, the enemy led offensive actions in the areas of Novokalinov, Berdychiv, Avdiyivka, Severny and Marinika of the Donetsk region, and was unsuccessful. The fiercest fighting on this part of the front continues behind Avdiivka and Marjinka, where more than 10 enemy attacks were repulsed. At the same time, the enemy was shelled by the settlements of Novokalinove, Avdiyivka, Lastochkine, Pervomaiske, Krasnyrovka, Gostre, Georgivka and Marinka of the Donetsk region.
In the Shakhtar direction during the day, the enemy did not carry out offensive actions. He fired on the settlements of Novomikhailovka, Bogoyavlenko, Shakhtar, Novovukirinka, Velyka Novosilka, Prechistivka and Zolota Niva in Donetschina.
In the Zaporizhia and Kherson directions, the enemy continues to increase in fortification defensive boundaries and positions. He shot, in particular, Vremivka, Novopil of the Donetsk region; Zatyshya, Gulyaypole, Railway, Gulyaypilske, Bilogirya of the Zaporizhia region; Vesele, Burgunka, Ivanivka, Antonivka, Dniprovsk, Kherson region, as well as Kherson.
Cases of violent abduction of civilians by Russian invaders in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine do not stop. In particular, in the Starobyl region of Luhansk region, Russian occupation forces are organizing searches of the habitats of citizens suspected of supporting Ukraine and taking people in an unknown direction, without returning.
🔥During the day, the Defense Forces aircraft struck 6 areas of concentration of occupiers, and missile and artillery units affected 4 anti-aircraft missile systems, 11 areas of concentration of live force, weapons and military equipment, ammunition depot and 5 enemy radio stations.
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situations in Avdiivka and Bakhmut:
AVDIIVKA AXIS /2015 UTC 9 APL/ Heavy combat is reported N of Avdiivka at Novokalynove and Berdchi. RU mounted unsuccessful assaults on the urban areas of Avdiivka. UKR Artillery/Missiles targeted RU troop concentrations and SAM sites. pic.twitter.com/hGefFnofYM
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) April 9, 2023
BAKHMUTY CITY /1930 UTC 9 APL/ The Gen'l Staff reports that 20 attacks were thwarted in the Bakhmut AO, and again broke up RU attacks on Bohdanivka and Khromove. UKR artillery/missile forces engaged Russian EW systems, surface to air missile sites and troop concentrations. pic.twitter.com/cQWZBghoUd
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) April 9, 2023
Bakhmut:
The 46th air mobile brigade repelled an enemy attack north of Bakhmut near Bohdanivka. pic.twitter.com/JionzJYGtx
— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) April 9, 2023
CODE 9.2 unit from the 92nd brigade clearing trenches near Bakhmut. pic.twitter.com/9ZNuLWX8dg
— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) April 9, 2023
Polish medical volunteer Damian Duda reports from Bakhmut that the city stands and continues to fight against the Russian invasion. pic.twitter.com/Gm4Ia9SIT9
— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) April 9, 2023
Avdiivka:
A destroyed Russian BMP-2 near Vodyane, Donetsk region south of Avdiivka. pic.twitter.com/LJa6FdJz0Q
— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) April 9, 2023
Sevastopol:
Russian missile with the inscription "To Washington" strayed off course and hit a civilian bus pic.twitter.com/JXkC2pGJh5
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 9, 2023
It’s HIMARS O’Clock!
Stop, HIMARS time!
🎥 Ukrainian Land Forces pic.twitter.com/Kimu4edhjh
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 9, 2023
And here’s something on the NASAMS air defense system:
Wagner boss Prigozhin complains that Ukraine has prepared 200,000 to 400,000 fighters for a counteroffensive, which will begin when the ground turns dry. pic.twitter.com/tjxfRMid87
— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) April 9, 2023
Someone went to the Sarah Palin school of shooting:
Russians. pic.twitter.com/zBPR0jeMVd
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 9, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There’s no new Patron tweets or TikTok videos tonight, so I’m going to repost this:
This is Serhiy, he is a sapper. He lost his leg . But he did not lose his smile.
Last week we had terrible news about injuries to sappers. I sent the funds from my Fund, but unfortunately it is almost empty now.
If you can help, I will be very grateful ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/2LfNqYhGmy— Patron (@PatronDsns) April 8, 2023
— Patron (@PatronDsns) April 8, 2023
And some Patron adjacent Ukrainian Army cats and dogs!
🥹#Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Leopard #CatsOfTwitter #CatsOnTwitter #RussiaisATerroistState #UkraineWarNews #UAarmy #Zelensky #UkraineRussiaWar️ pic.twitter.com/hYc77zn5Jf
— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) April 9, 2023
🥹#Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Leopard #CatsOfTwitter #CatsOnTwitter #RussiaisATerroistState #UkraineWarNews #UAarmy #Zelensky #UkraineRussiaWar️ pic.twitter.com/2DA3ZJ7UmV
— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) April 9, 2023
Beautiful dog#Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Leopard #CatsOfTwitter #CatsOnTwitter #RussiaisATerroistState #UkraineWarNews #UAarmy #Zelensky #UkraineRussiaWar️ pic.twitter.com/alDEZQA9TK
— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) April 8, 2023
That beautiful boy above is like: “You cross that line, you die!”
Sleep position.#Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Leopard #CatsOfTwitter #CatsOnTwitter #RussiaisATerroistState #UkraineWarNews #UAarmy #Zelensky #UkraineRussiaWar️ pic.twitter.com/LXmd0uOrgx
— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) April 8, 2023
Good mood.#Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Leopard #CatsOfTwitter #CatsOnTwitter #RussiaisATerroistState #UkraineWarNews #UAarmy #Zelensky #UkraineRussiaWar️ pic.twitter.com/lIXziDoQmK
— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) April 7, 2023
Finally, we have an update on the wee chonky boy from last week:
INNOCENT https://t.co/WRqEG27zdJ
— darth™ (@darth) April 5, 2023
As I suspected!
the best part is the pup ate all the cheese and cookies and then needed a nap
i mean whomst amongst us— darth™ (@darth) April 5, 2023
Open thread!
Another Scott
Relatedly??
Cheeky.
(via Oryx)
Cheers,
Scott.
JaySinWA
For those of you with Clearances, I am not sure how you navigate leak news. Apparently Adam has read about the meta story, but not read the documents that he is not allowed to. How does one avoid the spoilers? Trusted sources you know will redact anything you shouldn’t see
ETA I would probably have to resort to the Schultz defence: “I see nothing” but I doubt it would hold up. OTOH I haven’t seen any of the leaked documents yet, but some of the descriptions seem to get close to leakage.
JaySinWA
@Another Scott: Taiwanese Black Bear, Fancy Bear, Poo Bear, Panda Bear. Bear scat everywhere?
Adam L Silverman
@JaySinWA: Basically I haven’t read the NYTimes or wapo reporting. Know about Toler’s thread and article because someone quote tweeted, so I know there is a leak and what it is of, but I’ve done everything possible to avoid seeing the particulars. Like the screengrabs.
Jay
Jay
Buskertype
@Adam L Silverman: I appreciate that you’re taking the rules seriously, that’s good! But isn’t it an awfully self-defeating rule to bar government employees from reading classified information when it’s being reported publicly? I can’t think of any way that helps protect, well, anything.
Wapiti
@Buskertype: I haven’t had a clearance for years, but the challenge is know what you know to be classified and what is open source. So you could later talk about something, that was in a news article, and add a detail that wasn’t. Better to keep stuff compartmentalized in your mind.
Jay
MobiusKlein
@Adam L Silverman:
Those rules about classified data just seem weird. Yeah, it’s good to avoid sensitive data and not go looking for trouble. But once it’s on the front page, seems that new rules should apply.
And yeah, I do deal with ‘toxic data’ risks in my day job, in FinTech. You report, delete, and move on.
Jay
patrick II
@Buskertype:
That was one of the charges against Hillary, by the way. She had discussed via private email a story that had appeared in the NYTimes and everyone knew was true, but because she had a ts clearance she got dissed by Comey.
Ruckus
@Wapiti:
Haven’t had a clearance for decades but I still remember that if you don’t know if it’s classified or it’s classification, don’t talk, and if you do know it’s classified, don’t talk.
@MobiusKlein:
If you are trusted with a clearance you know that you don’t talk about it unless you KNOW it’s been declassified. It a rather easy system to understand, and a bit tougher to always follow, but that’s the deal.
Andrya
@MobiusKlein: The problem with your reasoning is that there is not a clear demarcation between “the information is totally out to everyone” vs. “the information is compromised but can still be contained”. And the system doesn’t want individuals with security clearances making that decision on their own.
Actual example: in 2008, both British and American media agreed to not publish the fact that Britain’s Prince Harry was serving in Afghanistan, as this could have made his unit a target for the Taliban. An Australian women’s magazine, “New Idea”, published this anyway. The UK military decided to keep Prince Harry in Afghanistan, as it was unlikely that the Taliban read the Australian equivalent of “The Ladies’ Home Journal”.
Then the conservative website “The Drudge Report” published the story. Drudge’s excuse was the information was already out (in the Australian magazine article) so why not? However, “The Drudge Report” had a MUCH wider circulation than “New Idea” and the Taliban would almost certainly get the news. So the UK military decided to pull Prince Harry out of Afghanistan.
With all respect to Prince Harry, the presence or absence of one UK soldier was unlikely to affect the outcome of the war. Nevertheless, it’s obviously unacceptable for “The Drudge Report” to publish operational information about British troops in wartime, using the excuse that it had already been published in a very obscure magazine.
Prescott Cactus
I wonder if one of the reason those with security clearance are asked to avoid published intel is that it may affect their thought process / future work product with possible bias.
Mallard Filmore
The YouTube vlogger “Jake Broe” has a segment that goes over a little bit of the secret document meta data (it is safe for you Adam, no display or discussion of the contents, not even the title). He explains 2 cropped lines that show a timestamp and who gets to see the doc.
https://youtu.be/fiNtTYJKUF4?t=597
Same video, Jake ALWAYS looks at Putin;s shoes in new pics and vids.
https://youtu.be/fiNtTYJKUF4?t=1410
Same video, Xi Jinping has a new table. Bigger than Putin’s, plus it has a garden in the middle!
https://youtu.be/fiNtTYJKUF4?t=1484
Same video, homecoming video of 31 Unkrainian children.
https://youtu.be/fiNtTYJKUF4?t=1530
Gin & Tonic
@Prescott Cactus: Also why, as I said the other night, the OSINT folks end up doing work for the TLA’s. They have different access and a different perspective. Toler can pursue any leads he wants anywhere he can get to, while somebody at NSA is certainly more constrained.
Chetan Murthy
As long as we’re all speculating …. I have a theory, too *grin*.
If people governed by confidentiality rules are allowed to learn about confidential stuff via open-source materials, then when it comes time to conduct leak investigations, it’s harder to do. Suppose we have a guy, Jake, who’s read in on some various set of classified materials. And another, Chad, who is not. If there’s a leak of those materials, then we can *know* that Chad should have no knowledge of the materials, and under questioning, if Chat lets slip that he has some vague knowledge, we’ll know he’s been accessing that material without permission — maybe he’s our leaker. Whereas, if Chad can use the defense “well, I read about it in the news, in open-source” it’s a lot harder to figure out who might be the leaker.
So, a counterintelligence reason, in short. But I’m just spitballin’ here.
way2blue
@Prescott Cactus:
It’s partly the ‘need to know’ concept. If you ‘need to know’—you already do. If you don’t need to know—then it’s not for your eyes.
Bill Arnold
@Jay:
That from Dmitry Medvedev is truly vile. I don’t see anything in the twitter rules specifically prohibiting advocating for ignoring genocidal activities, but it’s close enough to advocating for genocide to rate a twitter ban according to twitter’s published rules.
Dmitry Medvedev. well, what happens to him, happens. POS, he is.
Andrya
@Jay: There’s a proverb in French: “it is worse than a crime, it is a blunder”. Medvedev’s post is obviously genocidal and vile: but what surprises me is, it’s also (from the russian point of view) extremely counterproductive.
Presumably, Medvedev wants the Polish government to stop sending arms to Ukraine. The best way to do that (from his evil point of view) is to convince the Poles that russia is no threat to Poland. So, he calls the Poles “insolent Polacks”? That communicates clearly “We russians are your lords and masters! Humble yourselves!” He might as well say, “You Poles are next!” Which of course also alarms the Finns, the Baltics, etc.
The only way that I can understand this is that Medvedev has lived in dictatorship so long that he no longer understands how free people think. Also, of course, he is trying to avoid a case of “lethal windowitis”.
buskertype
@Wapiti: thanks, that makes sense.