(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Last night in comments Sebastian asked:
Thank you for posting, Adam. I don’t know how you do this. I had to take a break for my mental health, this war is grinding me down and making many terrible memories surface.
Thank you.
First, you’re, as well as everyone else, most welcome and thanks for the kind words. Second, self care is important. Third glad you’re doing better and that you’re back. Now to answer your question, doing these is the least I can do. While I don’t go into it here, a few folks know that I actually volunteered for the International Legion shortly after it was announced in 2022. They finally got back to me last month. I am now too old to join given the age restrictions they’ve put in place. Last year I also worked some of the connections of the senior leaders I’ve worked for to offer my expertise and experience in other ways and the one solid contact we had dropped off of comms after a few weeks last May. So while I’d love to be able to do more to help, to do so directly, and I’ve crossed every i and dotted every t trying to do so, which allows me to sleep at night knowing I’ve made every effort, at this point buying shirts from St. Javelin, Patron stamps from UKRPOSHTA, and doing these updates is both all I can do and the least I can do. So every night I’ll be here.
And one from commenter Anonymous at Work:
For the leak, TSCI information in the hands of a 21-year-old Air National Guard? I know there’s scads of “classified” material and all, but did the Pentagon have him handling such materials because they needed the hands? Doesn’t that beg the question, “Do you need so much classified material that you have this sort of thing happen?”
My understanding from the reporting about Airman Teixeira is that his job was maintaining the computer and IT systems for an all source intel shop that produced product for senior leaders across the Defense enterprise. As such he would need a TS/SCI not because he himself would be doing the analyses or even reading them, but in case he was helping someone get their system to operate correctly and something classified came up on the screen. The question, from what I’ve seen of the reporting, is how no one who was supposed to be monitoring the classified printers, as well as the workspace, noticed that he was printing stuff out, placing it into his pockets or bag, and walking out with it. And to clarify something from what Cole wrote yesterday, no he did not take his cell phone or a camera in and take pictures at work. He printed the stuff out, took it home, put it on his mother’s kitchen island, and photographed it there. Then he uploaded it to the Discord server. Finally, this isn’t actually a leak. Teixeira didn’t steal this stuff to give it to a journalist or a foreign power or non-state foreign actor. He took it to make a point to a bunch of teenagers. It’s not really spillage either. Frankly, I’m not sure we actually have a term for this kind of disclosure of classified information.
Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Every meter of Ukrainian land must mean the inevitability of Russia’s defeat in this war for the occupier – address of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
14 April 2023 – 19:34
Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!
I spoke today with Rishi Sunak, the Prime Minister of the UK.
First of all, I am grateful to him and to all world leaders who condemned the brutal murder of our soldier, the murder that the occupiers boasted about.
The occupiers will feel what it means when the world condemns them.
With Prime Minister Sunak we discussed the weapons for our soldiers – what we agreed with Britain, what will help our active steps, completely just steps. We discussed the acceleration of delivery…
The more far-reaching Ukrainian actions are, the sooner Russian atrocities will end.
Of course, we continue working on the aircraft coalition for Ukraine, and preparation for various international events that will give all of us in Europe more strength and protection.
Today, I held a meeting on Euro-Atlantic integration, on the inevitability of combining the potentials of Ukraine and NATO. The meaningful meeting: the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, government officials – the relevant Deputy Prime Minister and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, the foreign affairs team of the Office, and the head of the Office.
It is obvious that Ukraine’s place is in NATO, a legal place. And we do not want the outdated illusions, which until now held back our joining the Alliance, continued taking time away from Ukraine and its partners. We are developing the appropriate steps.
Today, I held a meeting on the recovery of our country – recovery after hostilities. First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, Deputy Prime Minister Kubrakov, and the recovery team…
We discussed things related to infrastructure, the economy, and many other issues that need answers, very valuable answers. We work both within the country and with partners for the sake of systemic reconstruction, for the result to meet the expectations of our society – rather high expectations. I am sure we will do everything.
During the day, I was in contact with the military, held a meeting with Ukraine’s Security Service Chief Maliuk, and a meeting with Defense Intelligence Chief Budanov.
The key is the constant destruction of the occupiers, this is the damage to their logistics and any potential in the occupied territories, this is the preparation of our active steps, this is counter-assault work. And I thank all our soldiers who ensure this, who remember that for every Russian attack on our cities and villages, on our positions, for every killing of Ukrainians, the occupier must suffer the most tangible losses. Every meter of Ukrainian land must mean the inevitability of Russia’s loss in this war for the occupier, the inevitability of the fact that there will be no prospects for the enemy on the land of Ukraine.
The 14th Brigade and the 1st Presidential Brigade of the National Guard – thank you guys for your resilience! The 54th Separate Mechanized Brigade named after Hetman Ivan Mazepa, the 5th Separate Assault Brigade, the 77th Separate Airmobile Brigade – well done, soldiers! It is the most difficult thing to hold the line in Donetsk region now. But it gives life to all of Ukraine.
Rescue operations are currently underway in Sloviansk, Donetsk region. Another strike by terrorists. S-300 missiles on residential areas, on ordinary civilian buildings. People are under the rubble. Everything is done to save them, everything is done to save the wounded. There are the first data on the dead. My condolences to those who have lost loved ones.
Not a single hour of this week before Easter passed without Russian murders and terror. This is an evil state, and it will lose. To win is our duty to humanity as such. And we will win!
And one more. Something about which a decision has been needed for a long time. Mikheil Saakashvili’s life now depends not on a political, not on some personal, but purely on an ethical decision… Which has a clean and solid legal basis. If a person needs medical help, if life depends on it, then this step is necessary. I know that Mikheil’s lawyers have now submitted an urgent appeal to the ECtHR to provide him with proper treatment. And it seems that this is the only way to save his life.
Thank you to everyone who resists evil together with Ukraine! Glory to all our soldiers who are now fighting for the state and people!
Glory to Ukraine!
There is no operational update for today posted by the Ukrainian MOD.
Bakhmut:
Bakhmut, Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigadehttps://t.co/bHPcXGpP5o
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 14, 2023
Here’s the YouTube video:
Bakhmut, additions for the exchange fund. I think they are very lucky to be alive. pic.twitter.com/ROecKKcQha
— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) April 14, 2023
Kherson:
VOG-17 unit demonstrates its work in the occupied part of the Kherson region. pic.twitter.com/oiRnDXGXDT
— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) April 14, 2023
Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Konstiantnivka:
russian terrorists shelled Sloviansk, Kramatorsk & Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region. 3 apartment buildings in Slovyansk were partially destroyed, a school was damaged. At least one person died and 6 others were injured. People are still trapped beneath the rubble, including a child pic.twitter.com/Am7JAEw2VI
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 14, 2023
Sloviansk:
The death toll from russia's missile attack on Sloviansk has risen to 8.
The 2 y.o. child rescued from the rubble died in an ambulance. The excuse "we were simply following orders" will not suffice. Everyone who gives criminal orders or follows those orders will face justice. pic.twitter.com/nnidK6OMNS— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 14, 2023
In Sloviansk five people killed, 15 wounded, more under the rubble, including a child.
Russia violently attacked several cities along the front line on Good Friday. This is the country that claims itself a defender of the Orthodoxy. pic.twitter.com/V4LGUTZhXX
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 14, 2023
A two-year-old child, pulled out of the rubble in Sloviansk, died in an ambulance. 14-year-old girl wounded. Death toll is 6 people killed. At this very time Russians are preparing for Easter and will talk about humanity. pic.twitter.com/8ByFanbej2
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 14, 2023
Zaporizhzhia, sort of, maybe…
Even the Russians themselves did not buy this one. pic.twitter.com/xfsW4u9by4
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) April 14, 2023
Here’s the screen grab of Dmitri’s translation:
Smoking!
The value of thermal imaging. Presidential Brigade at work 🌙🔥 pic.twitter.com/XuVncPGpnq
— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) April 14, 2023
Somewhere in the Donbas;
A Russian media outlet "Mash" reports that Igor Girkin will be investigated by the St. Petersburg authorities for discrediting the Russian army.
Girkin responded by saying he will "keep acting as before regardless of the actions of the authorities", and that he "will not be…
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) April 14, 2023
Here’s the full text of Dmitri’s tweet:
A Russian media outlet “Mash” reports that Igor Girkin will be investigated by the St. Petersburg authorities for discrediting the Russian army.
Girkin responded by saying he will “keep acting as before regardless of the actions of the authorities”, and that he “will not be intimidated”. He says he has not yet received any official documentation.
Prigozhin confirms he will not take Girkin into Wagner in case the latter gets jailed in Russia. pic.twitter.com/3ulCMVKSkY
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) April 14, 2023
It is important to remember that Girkin is one of the people responsible for creating the justification and kicking off the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014. Just as he was for setting the conditions for the breakaway of Transnistria from Moldova decades before. He is responsible for committing and ordering multiple war crimes in multiple countries.
The Netherlands:
Yesterday, I updated the House of Representatives on our military support to Ukraine. Now that the war has entered its second year, maintaining support is vital. This calls for transparency. Therefore, where possible, information about deliveries will from now on be made public. pic.twitter.com/tbFpH21gBT
— Kajsa Ollongren (@DefensieMin) April 14, 2023
21 folding bridges
10 field hospitals
31 field kitchens
441 trucks
6 water vehicles
676 generators
300 military tents
3 demining installations
33 units of special equipment— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) April 14, 2023
Japan:
Japan provides Ukraine with USD 3.5 billion in direct budget support in 2023. The 🇺🇦 Ministry of Finance reported this following a meeting between Minister Marchenko and 🇯🇵 Minister Suzuki. These funds will help finance priority expenditures, including social & humanitarian ones
— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) April 14, 2023
Denmark:
Denmark has previously announced that it is ready to transfer all its 19 French-produced CAESAR artillery pieces to 🇺🇦. Now 🇺🇦 military has completed the necessary training and the artillery system is expected to be delivered to 🇺🇦 in the coming weeks. https://t.co/E6G4bwlFJi pic.twitter.com/bTZ2ASlz0K
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 14, 2023
Germany and Poland:
🇩🇪 wants to allow 🇵🇱 to deliver MiG-29 jets to 🇺🇦. The Süddeutsche Zeitung learned this from government circles. The decision should be made this Thursday (today). 🇵🇱 had previously submitted a corresponding application in Berlin. It is about 5 MiG-29https://t.co/qjzDKKiQmn
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 13, 2023
Oh Canada!
In addition to the eight Leopard 2 tanks that we’ve delivered to Poland, Canada has deployed three Leopard gunnery simulators to help train Ukrainian tank crews on the operation and tactics of these tanks.
Our support for Ukraine is comprehensive – and it will continue. pic.twitter.com/653xfpNISv
— Anita Anand (@AnitaAnandMP) April 14, 2023
Kyivan Valkyrie:
Call sign "Sonic," a commander of a combat vehicle at the 241st Brigade @TDF_UA. She was born in Donetsk and raised in Berdyansk.
"We fight so that Ukrainian children have a childhood, youth, and a long path of happy adulthood in a free Ukraine." pic.twitter.com/oJt5NcJMDa— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 13, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
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Open thread!
Sebastian
Thank you for the kind words and the explanation, Adam.
What makes the Ukraine War so traumatic is the fact that I witnessed the Croatian War of Independence firsthand. My entire extended family (more than 30 families) were refugees due to ethnic cleansing (we are Bosnian Croats) and I lost family members.
The two wars are similar in strategy, the Serbs used Soviet doctrine of destroying everything with artillery and then murdering everyone who survived. So the news from Ukraine bring those old horrors to surface and it was manageable during the glorious defense of Kyiv and the counteroffensives but the brutal slog of Bakhmut and the grinding battles elsewhere were just too much.
I can’t imagine how it must be for the people who are actually there, how they keep their sanity.
Thank you again for everything you do. That and NAFO are some of the things that help.
planetjanet
Thank you Adam, as always. I am grateful for your reports and never miss them. I wish that the powers to be had allowed you to help directly, though I do not want you in harm’s way. I am selfish that way. The news about the Polish MiGs is good. Al Jazeera is reporting that Germany did give the formal approval yesterday. Get those planes off the ground and to Ukraine!
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/13/germany-approves-polands-request-to-send-mig-29-jets-to-ukraine
Gin & Tonic
Kind of a funny tangent on the Teixeira documents. If you’ve been following closely, you know that some of them, with very crude and obvious Photoshop edits, appeared nearly simultaneously on 4Chan and several pro-russian Telegram channels. A prominent one of the latter is named “Donbass Devushka” — (devushka is russian for young woman, analogous to the French mademoiselle.) Donbass Devushka also hosts a very pro-russian podcast, which has given a platform to most if not all of the prominent English-language pro-russians: child molester Scott Ritter, Jackson Hinkle, all those dudes. The DD persona is of a poor russian-born woman living in Luhansk. But her accent is atrocious, and sometimes slips completely, so some NAFO-adjacent and OSINT-type folks tracked her down to WA (yes, the US state.)
Anoniminous
John Walker was a grave security breach and gave the Soviets vital intelligence information about the US Navy.
Robert Hanssen was a grave security breach gave the Soviets vital intelligence information about US Intelligence Operations.
Aldrich Ames was a grave security breach and gave the Soviets vital intelligence information about US Counter-Intelligence operations.
AFAICT Jack Teixeira released a bunch of stale What-If Operational Discussions to impress his internet friends. Not in the same league at all.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Gin & Tonic:
LOL. It’d be extra hilarious if those guys were all stupid enough to think they were actually talking to the real deal
Adam L Silverman
@Sebastian: You’re most welcome. And I understand why it’s hard on you. We’re here for you virtually. And, as I wrote, self care is important.
Adam L Silverman
@planetjanet: Yep, I knew I saw something about approval being given, I just couldn’t remember where.
sab
@Sebastian: Thank you for sharing context. That cannot have been easy.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic:
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Adam L Silverman:
Casablanca is on my bucket list to see one of these days. Most of the time, any movie pre-1960s always comes across strange to me. It’s probably a combination of the Hayes Code and directing/acting styles of the times. The delivery of the dialogue and writing often comes across as unnatural to me compared to later media
trollhattan
Thank you Adam, for the Friday update (on day frickin’ 415 of Vlad’s two-week war). The Bakhmut grind is unnerving and I hope the strategy of holding it as long as possible proves worth the vast cost.
I’m pleased to learn that should I ever spot a seemingly abandoned T-90 tank near the Interstate, I can determine its destination from the shipping label on the turret. Just another day at UPS.
Sally
Does anyone know who his “companions” (WaPo description) are? I have seen it noted (NYT and WaPo) that several are from Eastern Europe. Do we know that he wasn’t being encouraged to release information to some kind of Russian operatives? Unless we know, find out, the identities of all the other people who drifted in and out of his Shaker Thug Central, it seems to me to be an open question. The WaPo in particular repeats the bunch of teenagers (which he wasn’t) notion. But it is not at all clear to me that we can possibly know that. I accept that he was trying to impress, but do we know the (real) identities of those companions? Maybe I have missed something, or I am completely wrong, so please pull me up if you think so.
Tony G
Thank you for the excellent explanation — but the fact that this young man could access this classified data still seems to me like shoddy security on the part of the Air Force. I had a job doing mainframe operating system support for about 26 years. I had read/update access to all kinds of system files, but there was no reason for me to be able to access production application files. (In fact, I actually could access application files — but that’s because the organization had shoddy security — with security administration being done part-time by a guy who was juggling 10 other tasks.). From my point of view, somebody in the Air Force was not taking this seriously and was not doing his/her job.
Adam L Silverman
@Sally: My understanding from the reporting is he was trying to impress a bunch of teenage gamers. A few were from outside the US, including Ukraine.
Tony G
@trollhattan: Actually, it was a two-week Special Military Operation. It was apparently so Special that they decided to extend it by another fourteen months (and counting).
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@trollhattan:
You’d think, it being produced in 2004 or so, would have Western fire control components already. Unless they were already removed or damaged. Could also be a sign Western sanctions are truly hurting russia.
I saw an article a few weeks ago that russia was undergoing “reverse industrialization” in it’s electronics/tech industry
Here it is:
Russia is undergoing ‘reverse industrialization’ as limited resources force a retreat from high tech industries, Finland’s central bank says
Main points:
Adam L Silverman
@Tony G: There was clearly a major breakdown in operational and information security.
Bupalos
I’m not sure what kind of semantics we’re doing here. I mean, assuming this isn’t some kind of intentional headfake where the info is actually bogus…this is about as bad an unintended disclosure as has happened in the United States…period. Call it what you want and describe motivations how you want. It’s actual battlefield and infospace strategic information that has the potential to meaningfully change the shape of a conflict where hundreds of thousands of people are dying. It was intentionally stolen and intentionally disclosed with full understanding that this was a high level crime.
I was beside myself when I heard the charges were max 15 years. I thought it would be max life and maybe pled down to 20. Now it turns out we may have a 26 year old NAZI that successfully undermined a couple of states walking around with books to sell and alcolytes to farm in 2029??
I think this reaction totally misunderstands the nature of this threat. There are probably in the low hundreds of kids and underlings that fit this profile, with this access and this set of weird personal right wing motivations. And if this is treated the way it looks like it’s headed…I’m scared.
Anoniminous
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Go to a Revival House and see it on the big screen.
Adam L Silverman
@Bupalos: I’m not saying it isn’t serious. It is very serious. But it isn’t what we usually use the term leak for. That was the point I was trying to make.
Dan B
@Gin & Tonic: Oak Harbor is the town next to Whidbey Island Naval Air Station. It’s very conservative.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Bupalos:
My understanding is that’s old, what-if scenarios. And really, how do we know how real any of it is? It’s likely been altered
Tony G
@Tony G: One of my uncles, when he had been around the age of this dumb kid, had worked on decrypting Soviet radio transmissions in the Air Force. For about 70 years he refused to talk about what he’d been doing because “he swore an oath”. I guess they took things more seriously back in the day.
Sally
@Sally: PS I am saying this because asserting it was revealed to a bunch of teenagers makes these ongoing acts of disclosure of top secret and NOFORN information seem more innocuous than they are. He was just showing off to his friends, he didn’t mean nothin’ by it is firstly, no excuse, and secondly, who were those “friends”?! It is known that Russia does inhabit game rooms because there are gamers with confidential tech and weapons data who reveal it to win arguments. Trump was just showing off to his friends too, some of who were Chinese and probably other nationals, who had no business seeing those documents.
Bupalos
@Anoniminous:
Can’t disagree more. I think this is based on a kind of weird temporal disposition where you’re treating a cold war that came to nothing in the end, and was actually a kind of pantomime with a hot war where thousands of people are dying every week.
If you don’t understand how this is damaging, you aren’t watching this war closely.
Adam L Silverman
@Sally: He definitely meant something by it. But at this stage that appears to have been trying to impress these other gamers.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Bupalos:
Korea and Vietnam were hot wars, though?
Jay
@Sally:
Shaker Thug Central was an invite only gamers group, that like GamerGate and the Charlotetown NAZI’s, used the shared Discord channel in the game, to communicate, hiding amongst the millions of gamers playing online, in tens of thousands of channels, every hour.
Finding and infiltrating such a group, knowing that it would have value, would be very hard.
Bill Arnold
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Where did this understanding come from? Enough documents were disclosed that some key-to-Ukraine information was (proforma “almost”) certainly part of it. Maybe a small part, but that is irrelevant
The initial uploads are very probably real. The guy was objectively an OPSEC-slob; Occam’s Razor suggests that they were unaltered because decent alteration is hard, and according to reports so far he did not have an obvious nationalistic agenda.
Oh, and the releases were to people that he believed were teenage gamers. Just for instance, Russian intelligence services are known to be capable of running not-real personas.
Chetan Murthy
@Adam L Silverman: I certainly defer to your expertise in this, but …. I fail to see how this is different from a guy with secrets who divulges them to his girlfriend, in order to impress her. How many men and women sworn to secrecy were betrayed by having divulged those secrets between the sheets ? And how is that different from this guy?
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Bill Arnold:
Comments from this blog. I haven’t been following this story closely, I admit.
I’ll probably regret asking this, but how badly could this get?
Sally
@Adam L Silverman: Thank you. I accept that he disclosed information in order to impress the members of his group. Did he know exactly who those members were, and that they were not people who would utilise this information for nefarious purposes (rhetorical)? Anyway, I shall let it go and await further developments. Oh, just one more thing, can he also face a court-martial for this?
zhena gogolia
@Sebastian: It’s getting quite unbearable.
zhena gogolia
@Gin & Tonic: OMG that is the worst Russian accent since Natasha Fatale
Anoniminous
@Bupalos:
3,000,000 Koreans and 1,000,000 Chinese died in the Korean War. 500,000 to 800,000 died in the Angola Civil War. 5.4 million died in the Congo Wars directly due to the US propping up Mobutu Sese Seko. Hundreds of thousands of people were killed in Latin and South America by US trained, financed, and support rape, torture, and murder Death Squads and dictators, e.g., Pinochet.
The Cold War was fought by proxy.
zhena gogolia
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): GO IMMEDIATELY AND WATCH CASABLANCA
Jay
PaulWartenberg
Someone said it fell into the Fourth Bucket: he did it for his narcissism. Having those documents and showing them off made him feel important. And when the word got out there was a leak, he ego-surfed the reports to see if anyone was guessing it was him.
We live in a dangerous age when ANYONE can show off and have millions of people see it happen live on-camera across the globe.
Chetan Murthy
@zhena gogolia: Geez, yes! And The Maltese Falcon! And Key Largo! And To Have And Have Not! And … and … and ….
zhena gogolia
@Chetan Murthy: Basically if it has a Humphrey and a Bogart in the credits.
Gin & Tonic
@Chetan Murthy: You mean like Petraeus?
Anoniminous
“The leaks are definitely embarrassing and have a political cost,” said Seth Jones, senior vice president and director of the international security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Based on past wars, however, they are unlikely to have a meaningful impact on the outcome of the war in Ukraine.”
Source: USA Today Apr 13, 2023
Chetan Murthy
@zhena gogolia: Hey now, Bacall and Bergman were no slouches either (*grin*)
Bill Arnold
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Don’t know.
Ukrainians will obviously be adjusting their plans and force placements as required, or at least the Russians will need to believe so. Even so, chances are high that there will be significant net Ukrainian casualties as a result of this leak.
Tucker Carlson was spilling the ludicrous modified casualty numbers, asserting that the Ukrainian to Russian casualty ratio was 7 (UA) to 1 (RU. And making hay of (14)?) US special operations members that were part of the US embassy (that needs to be verified) and therefor the US was in a hot war with Russia. Support in the US for Ukraine might suffer as a result.
(By those standards, the US has been in a hot war with Russia for decades, due to the Marine embassy guard forces. )
The US right wing is frothing all this up, with a bunch of incoherent and conflicting narratives, likening the guy to a cross between a Christian MAGA patriot and Edward Snowden, or a scapegoat, or the entire thing is a US (CIA/Deep State/Biden administration) information operation, and there are others. Etc.
Trust of US intelligence agencies internationally will suffer, and trust damage is long term.
Messy.
Chetan Murthy
@Gin & Tonic: I was thinking of Profumo: the Petraeus affair was bad, but at least the person to whom he leaked was in some manner vetted. In the case of Teixera and Profumo, the compromising persons were of completely unknown and unverified security. Indeed, Teixera’s case is *much* worse than Profumo’s on two counts:
TBH, I fail to see how the *motivation* for leaking can be in any manner even the least bit exculpatory.
Anoniminous
One of the things making Casablanca a masterpiece is the behind the scene realities like The Battle of the Anthems scene.
Jay
scav
@Dan B: That rather sprang to my eye too, all the Navy types there.
Omnes Omnibus
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
You are dead to me.
Anonymous At Work
Adam,
First, thank you for telling us about your attempt to volunteer. I read this stuff and wish I could mount direct action, even attempt such. It’s nice to know I’m not the only one trying to find ways to help.
Second, I read an article (yes, Ukrainian Pravda, news from Ukraine’s been slow recently) that Prigozhin said it’s time to declare “Mission Accomplished”, have Putin do a victory speech on a aircraft carrier, and dig in better trenches on what Russia’s stolen. Does the man have a death wish? Or does he think Wagner falls apart without him?
Anoniminous
@Bill Arnold:
The standard Right Wing blah-blah-blah they’ve been doing for decades. Father-of-US-Hate-Radio Coughlin blamed the bombing of Guernica on the Loyalists trying to make the Nazis look bad.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: Any idea what that was.
Mr. Bemused Senior
@zhena gogolia: but dahlink, Natasha is from Pottsylvania.
Adam L Silverman
@PaulWartenberg: It was definitely ego driven.
Omnes Omnibus
Is it just me or is that CAESAR gun kind of sexy?
Another Scott
BlueVirginia.US:
Rep. Spanberger on Morning Joe today:
She gets it.
The folks at that National Guard facility have a lot of explaining to do. As do many, many others.
Cheers,
Scott.
Dan B
@scav: Whidbey Island is 58 miles long. The southern half is liberal. Oak Harbor, in the center of the northern half is not.
Adam L Silverman
@Bill Arnold: The Pentagon publicly disclosed the SOF bubbas last November. They’re working on defense security cooperation stuff – weapons and training sales – under the Defense Attaché.
Adam L Silverman
@Chetan Murthy: The motivation is not exculpatory.
Adam L Silverman
@Anonymous At Work: You’re welcome, didn’t see the article. Have little insight into Prigozhin’s thought process.
Ohio Mom
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Yeah, Casablanca will probably strike you as very stylized. It might be like reading the King James Bible, an exercise in getting to know a classic that you will see referred to your whole life in many different contexts.
Anoniminous
@Omnes Omnibus:
All Self-Propelled Artillery is kind of sexy.
Omnes Omnibus
@Anoniminous: Well, yeah. Of course.
hotshoe
@Sally:
Jack Teixeira’s new theme song:
I went home with the waitress, the way I always do
How was I to know, she was with the Russians, too?
I’m the innocent bystander
Somehow I got stuck
between a rock and a hard place
And I’m down on my luck
—
boys will be boys, and status-seeking stupid boys will be stupid …
scav
@Dan B: Absolutely. Rather noticeable Navy base, lots of growlers flying about. Floaty things tend to go to Bremerton.
Anoniminous
@Anonymous At Work:
Wagner has been hurt worse than we’ve heard?
RSA
I don’t understand, or maybe I’m missing some subtlety here. A DoD memorandum says,
That seems to be a reasonable description of what happened. Spillage plus unauthorized disclosure.
Bill Arnold
@Adam L Silverman:
Thanks, and for the MTG twitter ref.
I broke my usual rule to not expand longer-than 280 tweets to skim that MTG rant.
How does she get away with this stuff? That’s high by close to a factor of three if hundreds is “200”.
Another Scott
@Jay: Impressive explosion. Chemistry is amazing.
The only place I’ve seen that video is at that tweet. The very faint watermarks make it hard for someone (at least me) to begin to try to figure out where he got it.
One of the really bad thing about Twitter is that there’s little way to know if someone is posting something from years ago, or somewhere else, or …
I was surprised by the number of buildings in background, so I wouldn’t be shocked if it wasn’t even Bakhmut. The experts at Oryx could probably geolocate it before finishing a cup of coffee.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jay
@Adam L Silverman:
Apparently a mined multi-story concrete building full of Orcs.
Jay
@Another Scott:
It’s been geolocated and explained, and is from today.
We will see more details tomorrow.
Ruckus
I’m not sure we actually have a term for this kind of disclosure of classified information.
Considering we have so many terms depending upon the level of classification I’d bet there is one. I remember that there are quite a number of levels and in the intervening decades between when I had clearance and now I’d bet there are even more.
Carlo Graziani
@Adam L Silverman: The odd thing about this very odd story is this: the kid certainly had repeated trainings on information security. Even at the largely non-classified-work DOE lab where I work, we have our obligations with respect to various categories of government information whanged into our skulls at least once per year. And even though the training courses have multiple ridiculous aspects to them, they drive very consistent messaging: take this shit lightly at your peril.
We are socialized in these attitudes, to the point that every one of us would be scandalized if someone among us posted a document containing controlled unclassified information (CUI, a confidential info category below even Secret) to some public site.
So it seems to me that there is something very fragile about how the military messages these concerns to junior officers and enlisted personnel, if someone like Texeira can blow past his security training without a second thought for the sake of impressing his gamer bros. Espionage is one thing—that’s a malice aforethought breach. This was casual disregard of rules that should have given him ulcers just thinking about, let alone executing, had he been properly accultured to his security environment.
That’s actually quite worrying. How many other callow idiot gen-Z enlistees are on the force whose loyalty to their social media crew outweighs any “frivolous” obligation they may be rolling their eyes to in meatspace? And, if recruiting standards are necessarily being lowered, where is the vetting that should keep immature cretins like Texeira away from sensitive positions, and doing food prep or greasing axle wheels instead?
Redshift
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
If you find that off-putting, think of it as if you’re watching a play. Drama is a thing unto itself, and the different style of today’s media isn’t the only way to do it.
Carlo Graziani
@zhena gogolia: I won’t hear a word spoken against Natasha. My wife and I once went to a halloween party dressed as Natasha and Boris. She looked stunning, and I still have and treasure my spherical bomb.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
https://foreverwars.ghost.io/the-chud-era-of-national-security-leaks/
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: There is a famous story of a somewhat-senior employee at Google, who tweeted out that they were getting a bonus in cash that day. He was fired …. like, *instantly*. B/c that shit is confidential. There are other stories in Silicon Valley that if you want to find out what’s up at a company, you just search out the people who’re a little disgruntled, and you’ll get the whole scoop.
You get enough people read-in on secrets, and you’ll get a few that decide to disregard the training, howsoever dire the warnings are. Which is why this kid needs to have the book thrown at him: as an example to all those others, that if they fuck around, they *will* find out.
Carlo Graziani
@Omnes Omnibus: Well, if you’re into long barrels…
Hangö Kex
@zhena gogolia:
Indeed: a classic where the script, cast, and, well, everything, seems to have fallen in place just about perfectly.
Chetan Murthy
@Hangö Kex: Though, I gotta say, The Maltese Falcon seems to be even moreso. His soliloquy near the end to Mary Astor is *somethin’* boy howdy.
Sally
@Gin & Tonic: Yes!
Hangö Kex
@Chetan Murthy: No contest.
Andrya
@Carlo Graziani: I’m wondering about lack of mentoring. When I first got a clearance in the mid-1970s, I was mentored by a bunch of Korean war vets who were dead serious about security- they had seen their fellow soldiers killed. This unofficial training was an order of magnitude more compelling than the official training (although I never would have compromised secrets either way).
I’m also wondering if “play war” among gamers has left them with the idea that the whole thing is fake and fictional. Several times, vets in my classes who actually served in Iraq/Afghanistan have told me they cannot stand the posturing of weekend paintball “soldiers”.
I last had a clearance in 2016, but I do remember that annual security training included the warning that enemy agents would exploit vanity and desire for status to get defense workers to tell them things. “Were you in on the decision to do X?” “Were you part of the discussion about Y?” We were warned that there would be a temptation to prove we were “high level” by revealing things that we should not have talked about.
Hangö Kex
The Guardian: Alexei Navalny in ‘critical’ situation after possible poisoning
There is something deeply Russian in the sense of it being riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma in this; among other things, I have a hard time understanding why he chose to come back after the first poisoning and how come he didn’t end up dead soon after and could continue to profess his opposition to the regime from prison while being systematically mistreated.
frosty
@Chetan Murthy:
My millenial kids (25+ now) don’t want to watch B/W movies. I’m thinking of strapping them to a chair for Dr. Strangelove. To start.
Carlo Graziani
@Andrya: I think that your point about mentoring is very valuable. I get the feeling that personnel admitted to the circle of TS-Cleared are implicitly trusted thereafter, with perfunctory yearly re-training, and don’t get much ongoing personal mentoring reinforcement of the variety that might get their attention to, and respect of, their resposibilities with respect to security.
Redshift
@Andrya: A friend’s father worked in counterintelligence. After he retired, I heard (secondhand, from my friend) stories about how for a while, his job was to try to talk his way into Nike missile sites. He was quite good at it, and caused quite a few people to have a very bad day (and strengthened security in the process.)
Hangö Kex
@frosty: Maybe see A clockwork Orange for inspiration on how to go about it? :)
frosty
@Hangö Kex: Eww, no. I read the book for a class in college then watched the movie when it came out. Once. I wouldn’t inflict that on my sons that I like.
Sebastian
@zhena gogolia:
We are losing so many wonderful and bright people, it breaks my heart.
Mallard Filmore
@Jay:
YouTube vlogger “Denys Davydov” has a short segment on this, using a block of 3 buildings and a blue roof for the location.
His video is at:
https://youtu.be/e-2I63rmC0E?t=59
Jay
@Mallard Filmore:
while the location is close, I don’t think, (and my sources don’t suggest), that it was a bridge.
The blast has a chimney effect, up not out. That requires a strong surrounding structure remaining semi intact, like a cannon barrel.
Bridge blasts, ( feel free to put the Kerch bridge on a loop), tend to go “out”.
Chetan Murthy
@frosty: Dunno: one must suffer for great art, n’est-ce pas?
Lyrebird
I am not sure if this magazine cover is from Poland or elsewhere, but I thought people here might appreciate it. If you don’t want to head to Twitter, it’s an illustration showing Pres Biden walking down stairs out of a plane and the red carpet leads to a bear rug on the tarmac that he will then walk on.
Mallard Filmore
@Jay:
Yeah. On the twitter video, did you notice all the shit falling out of the TOP of the smoke plume?
way2blue
@Adam L Silverman:
My question is: How did Airman Teixeira clear the rather invasive scrutiny required for TS/SCI (or even TS) clearance? I would think any casual examination of his social media posts would raise a red flag or two. Ack.
Jay
Jay
@Mallard Filmore:
yup, the walls in my building are 12 inches thick, pillars, 24, floors, 3 inches, then of course all the plumbing, electrical, drywall, built ins,
but a blast like would never happen in my building because the doors and windows would vent.
So I am guessing a repurposed for Orc leisure industrial building with few windows and doors, so that people nearby can’t hear the screams,…..
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Jay:
Damn, that sounds like a nightmare. I bet the Russians who fled months ago are glad they did now
way2blue
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Charlie Sykes has a recent (Bulwark) podcast with General Hertling (ret.) in which Hertling discusses what types of information have been disclosed—in general terms—and how it affects various elements of the Ukraine crisis (e.g., allies, Ukraine, Russia… ) Note, the interview occurred just before Teixeira was arrested.
Jay
@way2blue:
because it’s not as invasive as it should be. They check your linked in, google your name, they don’t search for nyms, tear apart your PS what ever number it is now, tear apart your laptop,
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
I got some strong recommendations for Casablanca in this thread. I’m definitely going to see it
: )
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Bill Arnold:
Thanks for the assessment. I guess we’ll wait and see how it plays out
@way2blue:
I’ll read that tomorrow. Thank you
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Jay:
Given the how widespread social media is, I’ve read anecdotal stories that having no social media is actually a red flag apparently for employers. Is that the case when it comes to military/intelligence, too?
Also too, I think social media is going to be a challenge, if it isn’t already, when it comes to recruiting people to these positions because a lot of teenagers post stupid stuff on social media that could be used for blackmail later. And as they say, the internet is forever
Jay
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
#347 for saying see Casablanca, in a theatre,
Burnspbesq
Adam:
Felony? Which raises the interesting question, are Guardsmen subject to military or civilian justice (or both)?
frosty
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Beware! It’s the Gateway Movie for all things Bogart. Years ago I read a book on Rebel Heroes (with a lot of these great ones) or something like it, but Googling is no help now – just Star Wars stuff.
Next up: James Dean, Rebel Without A Cause. Marlon Brando in The Wild Ones. Also, On The Waterfront. My high school pulled us all out of class to watch this in an assembly! Then anything with Steve McQueen. Bullitt, the source of all car chases. Kick back, relax, movies went slower back then without so many quick cuts.
AlaskaReader
@Anoniminous: …and your source for knowing this can be found at what link?
AlaskaReader
@Jay: And yet it took Bellingcat little or no time to start conversations with some of the participants.
Ivan X
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I’m with you on this. For me, particularly, it’s the syrupy orchestral scores — they grate on my nerves and take me right out of the movie. There are some exceptional films from 30’s/40’s/50’s that I like a lot, but they are that, exceptions. And mostly they don’t have that kind of score.
Ivan X
@Redshift: I don’t like plays much, either. With exceptions, of course.
Jay
@AlaskaReader:
working backwards is a lot easier than working forwards.
After Charlottesville, ANTIFIA/OSINT found tens of thousands of Discord chats, outing thousands of NAZI’s.
Chris T.
Dumbassedness?
Geminid
This morning @tendar noted a report from the Canadian Defense Minister that Canada has delivered 8 Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine, along with 3 gunnery simulators to help train crews.
Also, he says that British Sea King helicopters are now in Ukrainian service.
glc
@Carlo Graziani:
Noted.
The Pale Scot
Whatever, Ten yrs in Leavenworth, minimum
Another Scott
@The Pale Scot: It’s apparently 10 years per count. Could be a long time.
(Though I think the real maximum is 30 years.)
Cheers,
Scott.