Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Take hopelessness and turn it into resilience.

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

Jack Smith: “Why did you start campaigning in the middle of my investigation?!”

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

After roe, women are no longer free.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

When someone says they “love freedom”, rest assured they don’t mean yours.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

I did not have this on my fuck 2022 bingo card.

It may be funny to you motherfucker, but it’s not funny to me.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

if you can’t see it, then you are useless in the fight to stop it.

Good lord, these people are nuts.

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

The most dangerous place for a black man in America is in a white man’s imagination.

The GOP is a fucking disgrace.

Impressively dumb. Congratulations.

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

“woke” is the new caravan.

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

In short, I come down firmly on all sides of the issue.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 417: Is April Over Yet?

War for Ukraine Day 417: Is April Over Yet?

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(Still current mood…)

This is going to be a very brief update tonight. The torsion spring on my garage door snapped about 90 minutes ago, the repair guy is now here, I may be able to get out. Eventually. Sometime. I would very much like to start April over now please.

130 more Ukrainian service members have been returned!

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Easter greetings from the President of Ukraine

16 April 2023 – 08:00

Dear great people of the great country!

At the end of last winter, Russia brought a full-scale war to our land. And with it – death, pain, and darkness. On the morning of February 24, the sun never rose. Dawn never came. On the morning of February 24, a dark night began. And at the same time, our awakening began. Our struggle.

Darkness could not overshadow our spirit, desire for freedom, love for our native land, and readiness to defend it.

We have kept the light within us. We have conquered panic, fear, feud, and quarrels. We have united. Millions of sparks in millions of Ukrainian hearts became one big bonfire. Our strength and invincibility were tempered in this fire, this fire did not let our hope and faith go out, the whole world saw this fire. It has united around it, stood next to us.

Then we defeated despair, hopelessness, fatigue, pain. Millions of lights in the eyes of millions of Ukrainians merged into one powerful beam of light. It helped us not to get lost in the dark, not to get lost on the road, illuminated the path to the right goal.

This is what different generations have fought for in different centuries. What our warriors of light – the defenders of Ukraine – gave their lives for in the last nine years and 417 days.

What we are fighting for against the dark forces today. This is our dawn. Our revival. This is the dawn of independent Ukraine.

Today, we celebrate the holiday of the Resurrection of the Lord. Its main symbol is victory: the victory of good, victory of truth, victory of life. We celebrate Easter with unshakable faith in the irreversibility of these victories.

On this day a year ago, we all prayed that Ukraine would endure. Today – for Ukraine to win. We don’t just wait and ask, we win and create this victory ourselves. 417 days. We have already come a long way. Perhaps the most difficult of the peaks is ahead of us. We will overcome it. And together we will meet our dawn. When the sun will rise all over our country. This is a blue and yellow flag. It will certainly be raised in all our God-given land. In all territories temporarily occupied by devils. Our flag will fly on the shores of the Sea of Azov and the banks of Siversky Donets River, over terricones and Ai-Petri peak. The sun will shine in the south, the sun will shine in the east, and the sun will shine in Crimea. The yellow-hot sun in a peaceful blue sky, and it is the light of justice.

It is the light of the reunion of people and families. Ukrainians. All who are now at the front and all who help them in the rear. The glow of the smiles of the winners and their families. The brilliance of the battle orders of the heroes who will return. The sparkle of happy eyes of parents, children, loved ones, friends and relatives who are waiting.

This is the light of rebirth. Reconstruction of what was destroyed and mutilated by the occupier. Reconstruction of our beautiful country, which will become even more beautiful in the future.

It is the light of verity and truth. The rule of law and justice. Prosecution and punishment of all those who gave and executed criminal orders. All those who killed, tortured, robbed will answer both in the international tribunal and to the Lord.

Heaven sees our faith and steadfastness. The world sees our courage and invincibility. The enemy sees our strength and determination. And therefore, Ukraine will see the light of victory.

Belief in it unites us all. Always, but especially today. On Easter, which has always been a family holiday for Ukrainians, a day of warmth, hope and great unity. The war could not erase us, our values, our traditions, our holidays, and the most important things they symbolize.

And therefore, no matter where we celebrate Easter, no matter where each of us is now, we celebrate Easter together.

We are one big family. Ukrainians. We have one big home. Ukraine. We have one big goal. Victory. For all.

Those who are no longer with us, who gave their lives for Ukraine. We remember everyone and ask God to appease their souls. We believe in everyone who continues to defend the Motherland, and we ask God to protect and preserve them. With all our strength, we fight for our land and ask for the help of heavenly forces. In hundreds of prayers that our ancestors said before the battle, which help our soldiers and protect them today.

I will put on the shroud of Jesus Christ,

my skin is iron shell,

my blood is strong ore, my bone is a damask sword.

I am faster than an arrow, more alert than a falcon.

The armor is on me.

The Lord is in me.

For tomorrow.

For a peaceful dawn.

For the victory.

For Ukraine.

Christ is Risen! He is Risen Indeed!

There is no operational assessment and update from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense today. Here is, however, their Orthodox Easter message:

Lavra:

Bakhmut:

There’s one more video, but I can’t tell if the Soldier is prone in a firing position or is down because he’s wounded or KIA, so I’m not posting it.

 

Lukashivka, Chernihiv:

Sloviansk:

Komyshuvakha, Zaporizhzhia:

Kherson:

Belgorod:

Here’s the geolocation on the Russian logistics site that was hit with HIMARS yesterday:

And here’s the full test of the tweet explaining what you’re looking at:

Yesterday, news came out that a russian base was presumably hit with at least 12! Himars missiles. The location hit is a building with a green roof near the one of the most used supply route by 🇷🇺 forces in this area. Actually this building was a RemBat location for the 41st CAA’s 106th seperate Logistics support brigade, here they repaired and refurbished damaged MBT’s and IFV’s at any time multiple vehicles would have been in this building. On satellite imagery from 11 feb. 2023, damage to the structure can be seen. Indicating that they probably tried to hit it before. Well this time they did not take any changes and hit it with an entire barrage. As can be seen on the video a large explosion occured with multiple secondary explosions indicating the presence of ammunitions inside. Imagery of today shows the extent of the damage, and also raises the question what exactly hit the location, just N of the target we can see 3 holes where ammunitions landed. As you can see in the little map below the distance from the frontlines to this target is only 24km, so a host of different ammunitions could have been used. Looking inside the destroyed building things that look to be rectangular objects can be seen however the resolution is too low to definitly identify vehicles or types. What can be said is that of a volly of 12, 9 objects hit their intended target an whreaked havoc inside.If you liked this tweet please re-tweet and like to defeat this damn twitter algoritm 👍 Geolocation and video can be found ⬇️ twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/s #SlavaUkraïni #HIMARS

@GeoConfirmed @AndrewPerpetua @PaulJawin @DefMon3 @Tatarigami_UA @bayraktar_1love
@robert_bor @ArtisanalAPT @HeliosRunner @TuiteroMartin @BruckenRuski @Orion__int @bradyafr

Obligatory:

Kazan, Russia (I meant to post this yesterday):

The Ukrainian officer who tweets as Tatarigami has posted some analysis of the events going on Sudan and how they relate to Ukraine. Hemette or Hemedti is LTG Dagalo, that’s his kunya or short/little name.

And an addendum:

Here’s the full text of Tatarigami’s reply:

While I am not an expert on Africa, it appears that russia, through Wagner, is seeking to exploit a perceived anti-colonial sentiment against former colonial powers such as France, England, Belgium etc. This tactic is based on the belief that portraying russia as a supportive ally in Africa can help diminish the colonial legacy.

In reality, groups like Wagner, just fill the vacuum left by former colonial powers and exploit the continent’s natural resources in exchange for military support of authoritarian leaders

As I indicated last night, one of the major issues here is that Prigozhin’s subsidiary companies are doing work that profits Dagalo while providing Prigozhin with resources to continue to finance his operations in Ukraine, as well as other places.

Here’s an interesting thread on what is going on with EU/NATO countries and the military material they’re providing to Ukraine:

Apparently a number of our European allies use Clarence Thomas’s accountant. Who knew?

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Христос Воскрес!✨

♬ оригінальний звук – Bandura_sound_music

And, appropriately given the nature of the video and that it is Orthodox Easter today, the machine translation of the caption is:

Christ is risen! ✨

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

44Comments

  1. 1.

    Sanjeevs

    A social-media account overseen by a former U.S. Navy noncommissioned officer—a prominent online voice supporting Russia’s war on Ukraine—played a key role in the spread of intelligence documents allegedly leaked by  Airman First Class Jack Teixeira, reposting files from obscure online chat rooms.
    A purported Russian blogger known as Donbass Devushka, which translates as Donbas Girl, is the face of a network of pro-Kremlin social-media, podcasting, merchandise and fundraising accounts. But the person who hosted podcasts as Donbass Devushka and oversees these accounts is a Washington-state-based former U.S. enlisted aviation electronics technician whose real name is Sarah Bils.

    The fact that Donbass Devushka isn’t a Russian from Donbas, as she presented herself online, but an American residing in Washington state, was first disclosed by pro-Ukrainian online open-source intelligence analysts and activists known as NAFO.
    One of them, Pekka Kallioniemi, a fellow at the University of Tampere in Finland, posted on Saturday a series of tweets outlining the evidence, including the matching birth date of Ms. Bils in official documents and Donbass Devushka’s online solicitation of birthday donations.
    The Donbass Devushka network has become a significant part of the pro-Russian war propaganda campaign, Mr. Kallioniemi said: “They were definitely one of the fastest growing English language, pro-Russian communities.”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/social-media-account-overseen-by-former-navy-noncommissioned-officer-helped-spread-secrets-a4b5643b?mod=hp_lead_pos1

  2. 2.

    Urza

    I may have missed an update.  Why does Russia think returning Ukrainian soldiers, and children, is a good idea?  Maybe in exchange for their own high value captives, but I highly doubt there’s any amount of troops that worth anything to them in a negotiation.  So, what am I missing?

  3. 3.

    Mallard Filmore

    One of them, Pekka Kallioniemi, a fellow at the University of Tampere in Finland, posted on Saturday a series of tweets outlining the evidence, including the matching birth date of Ms. Bils in official documents and Donbass Devushka’s online solicitation of birthday donations.

    Jeepers.  I’m not a spy or even an interesting person politically, professionally, or financially.  But even I use fake birthdays, mother’s maiden name, favorite pet, etc in my feeble attempts to stay anonymous.

  4. 4.

    Ruckus

    Clarance Thomas has an accountant?

    Who has a license to practice accounting?

    And a calculator?

    Who da guessed that?

  5. 5.

    Sanjeevs

    @Mallard Filmore: Another fun fact on Ms Bils

    Ms. Bils was promoted to the E-7 rank of chief aviation electronics technician in late 2020, a senior NCO position, according to promotion records posted on the Navy website and photographs of the ceremony on her former installation’s Facebook page. Ms. Bils left the military in November last year with an honorable discharge and with the lower rank of E-5, according to military records. The reason for that significant demotion couldn’t be immediately determined

    Would be interesting to know why she was promoted in Trumps final days and how she got demoted ( I presume that demotion is rare).

  6. 6.

    Dan B

    @Sanjeevs:  This Donbas Girl recently retired from Whidbey Naval Air Station.  It’s a very isolated location on a 58 mile long Island in Puget Sound.  It’s many hours drive from Seattle or a long drive and ferry ride.  It’s easy to get radicalized by the right.  In addition, her mother said she fabricated stories even as a child and they were not close.  It sounds like there were mental issues.

    There are questions about whether she can be charged because it’s not illegal to repost someone else’s post but I’m guessing that reposting top secret material is a different kettle of fish.

  7. 7.

    Anonymous At Work

    Nice dig about Mr. Ginny Thomas and their accountant.  Can’t say that I blame Europe; the Warsaw Pact countries probably saw a tremendous amount of new “tractors” with turrets on them appear in barns as well.

    Is the logistics base being targeted a sign that HIMARS have the expanded range ammunition or just an aggressive shoot-and-scoot operation?  And shouldn’t UA being saving them for the start of their next offensive or reaching distant targets following their next offensive?

  8. 8.

    Yutsano

    I’m going to assume from the size of the cake that it’s safe for Patron to eat. Since from the look on his face it was about to happen anyway.

    Oh yeah: first comment from new phone!

  9. 9.

    Steeplejack

    @Yutsano:

    What did you get? My Samsung Galaxy S10e is coming up on its fourth birthday next month, but it’s holding up pretty well.

  10. 10.

    Ohio Mom

    That’s a great shirt Zelenskyy is wearing.

    Also, I hear you Adam on the garage door spring, that was us three weeks and several hundred dollars ago.

  11. 11.

    Jay

    @Urza:

    in the case of the children, there are actual laws and procedures required to take and hold custody of a child, that some Judges still uphold. There are a variety of Ukrainian and Russian groups that jump through all the hoops required to find the children and repatriate them, ususally through Europe.

    In the case of POW’s, while we get the number that Ukraine gets, we don’t get the number that Ukraine exchanges for them.

  13. 13.

    Gin & Tonic

    Zelensky is delivering his address from the grounds of St. Sophia Cathedral, in the geographic and spiritual center of Kyiv. That cathedral, in one form or another, has been in that spot for a millennium ( much has been rebuilt, but there are original portions.)

    It is a UNESCO World Heritage Site, and a required visit when you are in Kyiv.

  15. 15.

    M31

    garage door springs are pretty scary —  I know a guy who came really close to losing an eye when he tried to fix his own, got a really impressive dueling-scar look out of it but yikes

  16. 16.

    Jager

    @M31:

    I read somewhere that more homeowners are seriously injured trying to do garage door repair, than any other repair. It’s the single most dangerous thing you can “try” to fix in your home.

  17. 17.

    Gin & Tonic

    Raising the O O signal here:

    La Repubblica reports Italy has donated up to 60 M109L 155mm self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine. They have already been delivered or will arriving in the very near future. 🇮🇹🤝🇺🇦https://t.co/E0FGrH7pFy— Jimmy Rushton (@JimmySecUK) April 16, 2023

  18. 18.

    Gvg

    My garage spring chose to break when I had my car in the garage and a hurricane was on its way. I chose NOT to try and get family help to lift the door manually for that last trip to the store and had them do the grocery run instead. I wanted the car in the garage for the storm, not stuck outside. Then went on Nextdoor for recommendations which were surprisingly unanimous about who to call. I called expecting a wait list or leave a message because most businesses were already shut down. They came out the next morning while the rain and wind were pending but not here yet and charged a modest amount to replace both springs quickly.
    Better than I hoped because I also was coming down with strep for that hurricane and the grocery run had been to pick up the prescription and ice cream. I also did not lose power though some did. Much appreciated when I am sick, air conditioning and a working kitchen.

    The timing sucked IMO.

    I had also heard how dangerous that repair was and refused to allow my father to attempt it. He is an amazing handyman but in his 80’s and just no. Pay an expert.

  20. 20.

    Geminid

    @Gin & Tonic: Maybe one of those Shaheds lost its way.

    Which reminds me that number of sources reported last December that Iran had agreed to sell Russia short range ballistic missiles. No missiles have shown up so far. Russia must still want them, but it looks like the Iranian’s got cold feet. There’s a story there, but we may not hear it for a while.

  23. 23.

    Bill Arnold

    @Rich2506:
    Ugh. (Skimmed Hersh’s actual piece). Looks like CIA Director William Burns has an opportunity to call Hersh a liar or misinformed or both. Something to watch for (including absence of pushback). Hersh’s sourcing as usual is anonymous.
    Also, the piece is confusingly written, probably deliberately so.  E.g. is he accusing Ukrainians of exporting donated arms and ammunition, or the opposite, that Ukrainians are buying arms and ammunition on the open market? (Again, very thin sourcing.)

  27. 27.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Gin & Tonic: The part of the article visible beyond the paywall staes that a long convoy of M109s was sighted yesterday at the Udine train station (the Aviano Air Force Base, one of NATO’s largest facilities, is in Udine), Ukraine-bound, and that many of these refurbed pieces have been firing at Russian positions already for weeks now.

  28. 28.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Geminid: I wonder about Iran’s production capacity. They need those missiles themselves, and probably are feeling that their supply may not meet the requirements that they may face soon. It wouldn’t be that surprising if they were experiencing supply-chain issues of their own.

  30. 30.

    Yutsano

    @Steeplejack: ​ I went ahead and purchased a Samsung S23 outright. So far it’s an amazing phone but I had a 5 year old Galaxy S9 previously. Made the sales guy a decent commission too.

  38. 38.

    Jay

    @Steeplejack:

    I need the larger screen, the Iphone 11 is old, has less features, but my phone is used as a camera, magnifying glass, text, phone and web surfing, and that’s it.

  40. 40.

    Anoniminous

    @Jay: ​

    Re: New Ukrainian armored personnel carrier

    That’s brilliant. Re-purposing obsolescent chassis allows build-up of new mobile forces on the cheap.

  41. 41.

    Jay

    @Anoniminous:

    I don’t think they are using obsolete tanks.

    Given the number of Moscovite tanks entered into the turret toss Olympics, and given what I know,

    I suspect that a bunch of the donor chassis, are losers in the turret toss competition. You can get the engine and other mechanicals back in service, but the optics, gun, turret, autoloader are unslavagable, but you can get the chassis back up and running as a tractor of some sort.

    Drivable and no more.

    Stick a good steel box on the back, some good doors, era for added protection and you have a pretty good “heavy” APC.

    As far as I know, Israel was the first to take that approach with captured Soviet tanks, (if you don’t include WWII Kangaroos),

    Russia tried it with their “Terminator”, but as an IFV, which has not fared well in Ukraine.

    It’s a good use of wrecks.

  42. 42.

    Yutsano

    @Steeplejack: ​

    @Jay: ​ As my screen had nice spiderweb cracks going through it, replacement became a necessity. And since I just got a credit card that could absorb the room for it I just decided to skip payments altogether. I probably did lay out too much at the store but whatever. I got a good phone and I don’t have to worry about my bill going up all that much now.

  43. 43.

    Jay

    @Yutsano:

    My old IPhone 8 was a package deal. Free if I kept the same service for a year. Went through 3 battery replacements and 2 screens over  a bit more than 10 years.

    But then, I hung onto my Nokia 5110 for about a decade after it was obsolete, because the antenna allowed me to get a signal in places where a Smartphone was useless.

  44. 44.

    Geminid

    @Carlo Graziani: This could be a lack of production capacity, but Iran (and probably Russia also) knew Iran’s ballistic missile stocks and production capacity when it agreed to provide the missiles. The reaction by western governments indicated that they saw the prospect as a real threat.

    Iran may have been warned off, possibly with a threat of kinetic action interrupting either shipments or production. That would be a big step for the US, and I’m not sure anyone else could or would credibly threaten such action.

    European allies of Ukraine might have some economic sticks, in that their sanctions regime regarding Iran is not as tight as the US’s, so maybe Iran had something to lose there. There is a potential carrot; there are recent reports of a potential partial revival of the JCPOA could be an incentive to forgo supplying the missiles.

    Iran’s politics at the higher levels are fairly opaque, but it could be that the office of Supreme Leader Khameini put the brakes on. That seemed to be the case when IAEA Director Grossi visited Tehran a few weeks ago, and an urgent issue regarding urainium enrichment was apparently resolved.

    So like I was saying, there’s a story here. But whatever it is, I hope it means that Russia will not acquire these missiles.

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