Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Oh FFS you might as well trust a 6-year-old with a flamethrower.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

Hell hath no fury like a farmer bankrupted.

I would try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

One lie, alone, tears the fabric of reality.

Jack be nimble, jack be quick, hurry up and indict this prick.

if you can’t see it, then you are useless in the fight to stop it.

The rest of the comments were smacking Boebert like she was a piñata.

If you can’t control your emotions, someone else will.

Reality always gets a vote in the end.

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

The Giant Orange Man Baby is having a bad day.

Also, are you sure you want people to rate your comments?

The republican ‘Pastor’ of the House is an odious authoritarian little creep.

The current Supreme Court is a dangerous, rogue court.

Our messy unity will be our strength.

’Where will you hide, Roberts, the laws all being flat?’

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. keep building.

I like political parties that aren’t owned by foreign adversaries.

T R E 4 5 O N

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

Mediocre white men think RFK Jr’s pathetic midlife crisis is inspirational. The bar is set so low for them, it’s subterranean.

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 429: Stopping These War Crimes Is Why Ukraine Needs More Advanced Fighters

War for Ukraine Day 429: Stopping These War Crimes Is Why Ukraine Needs More Advanced Fighters

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Early this morning Ukraine time the Russian’s opened up with another round of aerial bombardment. Here’s the butcher’s bill as we currently know it:

More on this specifically after President Zelenskyy’s address. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

We can stop terror and save people only with a sufficient number of high-quality weapons – address of President of Ukraine

28 April 2023 – 21:51

Dear Ukrainians!

The demolition of rubble in Uman, at the site hit by the Russian missile, continued all day. At the moment, it is known about 23 dead, among them four children. My condolences to families and friends…

All those who were saved – residents of this building and neighboring buildings, which, unfortunately, were affected by the blast wave – are provided with the necessary assistance. I thank everyone who participated in the rescue operation and supports the rescued people.

A missile on Uman, a city that is absolutely peaceful, known to the whole world for hosting tens of thousands of Hasidic pilgrims every year… Only absolute evil can unleash such terror against Ukraine.

Two Ukrainian women were killed in Dnipropetrovsk region in today’s missile attack. Mother and daughter. Olha, born in 1992, and Veronika, born in 2020. This child has not yet turned three years old! Eternal memory!.. Condolences to the family, condolences to loved ones…

Today, our Air Force managed to shoot down most of the Russian missiles – 21 out of 23. If not for this, the terrorist state would have managed to claim many more casualties, more lives. And this proves once again that we can stop terror and save people only with weapons. Air defense, modern aircraft, without which there is no fully effective air defense. Artillery, armored vehicles. All that is necessary to provide security to our cities, our villages, both in the rear and on the front lines. To restore security to our people who are still, unfortunately, in the occupied territory. Temporarily. We cannot leave anyone under the power of Russian evil.

Today, the President of Slovakia and the President of the Czech Republic visited Kyiv. We talked about how to give protection to all our people, to speed up the return of peace and order in all the land.

I thanked Slovakia and the Czech Republic for their support: for the provided weapons, political and sanctions assistance, and for the support of people who received shelter in the Slovak and Czech communities.

I outlined to the partners what prospects we have on the battlefield now and what further help we need to go all this necessary way. I informed on what we are doing to implement our Peace Formula, in particular, the point regarding bringing those responsible for aggression to justice. I’m thankful that Slovakia and the Czech Republic see the need to restore justice and punish war criminals, to punish all these terrorists.

We signed a Joint Declaration with the President of Slovakia and the President of the Czech Republic regarding our European and Euro-Atlantic movement.

I also spoke today with President of the European Council Charles Michel. I informed him about the consequences of the Russian terrorist attack and thanked him for supporting our defense, our economic, and our social stability.

We separately discussed with the President of the European Council the situation around the destructive, in my opinion, ban on the import of our agricultural products by certain states. I emphasize that this not only violates the existing Association Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union but also gives dangerous hope to the Kremlin. The hope that in our common European home, someone’s wrong decisions can prevail over common interests.

Now, when Russia violates the freedom of trade, tries to block the supply of agricultural products to the world market, it is definitely not the time for anyone to follow the evil state and do something similar. It is necessary to find a normal, constructive way out of this situation in the European spirit. The difficult one. The decision that would take into account the interests of all our countries and Europe in general. We have discussed with Mr. Michel how this can be done, what the solution can be, and we are in constant contact with all partners.

Today, a significant investment event for Ukraine took place – the first major investment in Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. The size of the investment is $250 million, and this is only the start of the relevant package. Right now, when we are still fighting against Russian terror, big world business not only believes in our victory, but also confirms this belief with its multimillion-dollar investments and concrete steps.

I thank everyone who helps Ukraine!

Glory to all our soldiers who are now in battle, at combat posts, on combat missions! Thank you to the people of Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

https://twitter.com/_EmmaGH/status/1651987937825890305?cxt=HHwWgoC99duRhe0tAAAA

From The Guardian:

The Russian attack killed Veronika in her bed on Friday morning, but left her childish chalk drawings of a happy family intact on the wall of their home.

Portraits of “Mama”, “Nika” (her nickname), her uncles, grandparents and even the family cat “Kuzia” – the names written in by an adult – stretch all along the front of the house.

They end only where the plaster was stripped off by an explosion and a fire that took the lives of the three-year-old and her mother, early on Friday morning.

Hours later, Kuzia the cat looked on, bewildered and bedraggled by a steady rain, as “Uncle Seriozha” from the wall drawings tried to sort through the charred wreckage of their single-storey home. He hurled fragments of twisted metal out into the yard, sidestepping a doll thrown to the floor by the blast.

He had been inside too last night, he said, sleeping in the room next to the one that took a direct hit. His parents-in-law are in hospital. His wife, Veronika’s maternal aunt, wandered around the house and yard, silenced by the scale of the tragedy.

Neighbours were stunned at how brutally Russia’s invasion had arrived in this semi-rural suburb of Dnipro. The river port is an industrial and military hub, “closed” to foreigners under the Soviet Union, and a target in repeated wars.

But Veronika’s family home was a long drive from the river, the docks and the factories, in an area where fruit trees in full blossom shade small vegetable patches outside village homes, and rows of tulips brighten muddy lanes.

“Its the first time we’ve had an attack here. We already thought the war was something far away, that wasn’t going to affect us directly,” said Olha, 68, a friend of “grandpa Vova” from the paintings, who was injured.

Oleksandr Kalinichenko, a neighbour who lives around 300 metres away, said he had ignored air raid sirens until he saw the flash of an explosion. “My wife shouted at me: get into the shelter, immediately,” he said. “At first I thought it was some way away.”

He crawled into the basement, and when he came out, two young neighbours had been killed. “I want to tell you the Russians are pissing us off. I am 70 years old but I want to volunteer for the army, I want to strangle them with my own hands.”

Serhii Lysak, the head of the military administration for the Dnipro region, visited the shattered house to inspect the damage.

“Today we don’t need other proof to show the terrorist activity of the Russian federation. You can see what they have done,” he said, standing in front of Nika’s family portraits.

The young family had only become targets of a Russian strike because they were trying to protect themselves from missiles, said one neighbour, who asked not to be named.

They moved into the suburban house from their own apartment in the city, after a bloody strike on a Dnipro high-rise apartment building in January. The deadliest single assault on the city during this war, the missile killed at least 40 people and injured dozens more.

A similar tragedy unfolded in the central city of Uman on Friday, where another missile slipped through air defences and destroyed much of an apartment building, killing at least 10 people. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy has begged his allies for more anti-aircraft missiles, warning that the country’s supplies are running low.

The disaster in Uman shows the risks to civilians if air defences fail. But even when they work, Veronika’s death, in a place her family took her for protection, is a reminder that nowhere is entirely safe in a country at war.

More at the link!

And here’s a thread that does a really good job explaining why the Ukrainians need more advanced fighters. The bottom line is to prevent stuff like this from happening. First tweet followed by the rest from the Thread Reader App:

2/ 🇺🇦 are at serve disadvantage for both tactical and technical reasons.
The tactical are hard to change. Fighters need to hug the ground to avoid 🇷🇺 GBAD. That means the range of whatever AA missile they fire is reduced. Because the missile has to waste a lot of energy climbing 
3/ … instead of range.
🇷🇺 missiles gain range by firing at low-flying targets from above.
Regardless what missile is used, even hypothetically, 🇷🇺 will outrange 🇺🇦.
🇺🇦 will have to sneak up to ntercept any 🇷🇺 plane. But, to fulfill their mission, … 
4/ … they need to be able to shoot at the 🇷🇺 strike planes carrying glide boms.
If they can avoid/evade 🇷🇺 fighters, that’s fine as well. You don’t need to go into a lobbing duel with R-37M carrying Mig-31. 
5/ 🇺🇦 Soviet legacy vintage fighters are bad at sneaking up. One reason is the radar. The baseline Rubin (Mig-29) and Mech (Su-27) radars not only lack the range of modern 🇷🇺 PESA(AESA radars.
They are mechanically tilted cassegran dish radars with party analogue computers. 
6/ Their radar beam is much wider than that of a modern radar, and needs more pulses & energy to detect a target. Modern radar warning receivers (RWR) may pick the signal up, even if the 🇺🇦 radar only scans them. 
7/ But they also lack “track while scan” (TWS) modes, hence if they start tracking a target, they can’t scan for ofther aircraft flying around.
Tracking is even easier for 🇷🇺 RWR to pick up, and if the 🇷🇺 plane doesn’t know there were 🇺🇦 planes around, it knows now. 
8/ Then, to fire at a 🇷🇺 aircraft, the 🇺🇦 aircraft has to constantly illuminate the target with a high energy radar beam. The R-27ER1 needs the echo from the beam to find its target.
The 🇺🇦 needs to have its radar always pointed towards the 🇷🇺 aircraft. If it banks away … 
9/ … the missile would be lost. That means it needs to close in towards 🇷🇺 lines and fighters.
To reach its maximum range, a R-27ER1 takes more than a minute.
In the 🇷🇺plane, even the dumbest RWR recognises the beam and allerts the pilot. The Russian plane takes evasive action. 
10/ The 🇺🇦 plane has unmased itself, and becmes a target.
Now let’s assume 🇺🇦 had old 🇦🇺🇪🇸🇫🇮🇺🇸 F-18 to do the same thing. (btw. I don’t know why no one talks abut F-18s, carrier capable aircraft are much better suited to operate from improvised strips). 
11/ The F-18s AN/APG-65 or AN/APG-73 is still meachanically scaned, but with digital beam control. It has TWS capability. So the cance to detect it, are much lower.
The pilot does not loose situational awarness while tracking a target. 
12/ Moreover, it would fire a AIM-120. This missile does not require any iluminatiuon. Either it gets tracking data from the launching aircraft, or it memorises where the enemy aircraft was.
Once close, it switches on its own radar and rides the attack home. 
13/ Only now the 🇷🇺 aircraft would see it is under attack. And the 🇺🇦 fighter may have turned away already, again hugging the ground, hiding in ground clutter.
🇺🇦 pilots would survive this much longer. And it would be a more serious threat to 🇷🇺 aircraft, restraining operations. 
14/ For this to be effective, 🇺🇦 would not need a lot of fighters. Just sufficient to be able to always fly CAP missions. So all above 24 aircraft.
They would also need NATO compatible early warning radars and communication equipment for ground control. But this … 
15/ … is already being delivered, because you need it to integrate Western SAM systems into an integrated air defence network.
Scaning the German lists for military assistance I find enough hints this is dome already. 
16/ You saw today’s pictures from the attack against 🇺🇦 cities. This is a cynical 🇷🇺 strategy to keep 🇺🇦 SAM close to cities and away from the front.
Delivering fighters is the fastest way to counter it. Fighters are so substitute for SAM. 
17/ But production rates of SAM systems have their limits, and you can’t increase them on a short notice. 
18/ some further readings: this excellent report by @RUSI_org on the air war:

19/ and @shashj excellent article highlighting the range issue:

And a follow on tweet or two to answer questions from his readers:

Someone in the US National Command Authority is going to have to do some serious thinking about what their risk aversion means in humanitarian terms. Because right now the administration’s risk aversion is encouraging these strikes not deterring them.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

No new Patron tweets or videos have been posted. Here’s some adjacent material from the Ukraine Army Cats and Dogs account:

And we’ll finish with: “Don’t ask any questions, just get in, I’ll explain on the way!”

Reader Interactions

46Comments

  1. 1.

    Anonymous At Work

    Adam,

    Anything that a civilian writing letters can do to influence Biden on the F-16s?  At best, writing my congress-critter seems like very little.

  2. 2.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Anonymous At Work: I don’t know. Other than wasting your time, I don’t think it’ll hurt. What I’m not sure is if it’ll help. The President is risk averse in regard to international affairs. My read is that his National Security Advisor is even more so. And the consensus in DC, even among those that think supporting Ukraine is good and doing more would be better, is that all of this is a distraction from the real fight, which is the PRC. And that’s among the relatively “normal” members of the foreign and nat-sec policy crowd in DC. A lot of the Republicans in the House and Senate, as well as the conservative – whatever conservative really means this week – think tank crowd in DC is basically feral and rabid in their attitudes towards the PRC and are just spoiling for an actual war.

  3. 3.

    Adam L Silverman

    Unfortunately I’ve got to be up early on a Saturday, so I’ll catch everyone on the flip.

  4. 4.

    Jay

    "Right on target!"This was posted by the russian ministry of defense today, after russian missiles struck residential areas in Ukraine, killing and injuring civilians. They never cease to remind us… RUSSIA IS A TERRORIST STATE! pic.twitter.com/CsglBb9FRt— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 28, 2023

  5. 5.

    Jay

    I saw a tweet in the last few days that said the wolf rescue was by Dimitri’s Wolves Unit.

  7. 7.

    Another Scott

    Devil’s advocate… AirAndSpaceForces.com (from March 29):

    Much of the debate has focused on manned fourth-generation fighters, such as F-16s. Pentagon and White House officials have not ruled out providing them to the Ukrainians, but have suggested that such a move may only come after the war is over.

    “That won’t help them in this current fight,” Austin said. “And will they have a capability at some point down the road? We all believe that they will, and what that looks like, it could look like F-16s, it could look like some other fourth-generation aircraft.”

    Poland and Slovakia have recently said they are providing 17 Soviet-era MiG fighters to Ukraine. The top U.S. Air Force leader in Europe, Gen. James B. Hecker, said those aircraft would mark a helpful capacity boost to Ukraine, which has already lost about 60 planes, but they will not significantly change battlefield dynamics. The U.S. is also providing an unspecified number of JDAM extended-range guided bombs for Ukraine’s air force.

    Still, while members of Congress have expressed a willingness to send aircraft, Biden administration officials are holding out even as Ukraine prepares for a spring counteroffensive against the Russians.

    Colin Kahl, the undersecretary of defense for policy, told Congress in late February that providing F-16s to Ukraine would be costly and time-consuming—older F-16s would cost at least $2 billion, he estimated. At least two Ukrainian pilots have traveled to the U.S. to evaluate their skills in simulators, U.S. officials have said.

    “If you’re talking to F-16s, whenever you make that decision, in order to put together what needs to be put together to provide that capability is going to be 18 months or so in the making,” Austin said. “We will continue to work with our allies and partners to make sure that Ukraine has what it needs.”

    I’m no expert, but that timeline doesn’t surprise me. I remember stories about the Air Force having to cannibalize parts (e.g. swapping out engines) from front-line fighters to keep enough in the air. (The term “hangar queen” was coined for them.) It must be even more difficult to find ways to sustain older fighters going into an extremely hostile environment.

    I’m not surprised that White House and Pentagon are cagey about a possible future transfer of F-16s or F-18s, either. Why tell VVP that we (the US and NATO) physically can’t send fighters and everything needed to sustain them in less than a year – why not keep him guessing?

    My $0.02.

    In the meantime, sending Ukraine a few million (or so) loitering munitions would help a lot.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Thanks as always, Adam.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  8. 8.

    Gin & Tonic

    Fair amount of news coverage today about last year’s widely-criticized Amnesty International report, including a damning FTFNYT story. This Tweet thread is a good overview:

    There is a scandal about Amnesty International. In August 2022, Amnesty accused Ukraine of fighting tactics that endanger civilians. In response to the public outcry, Amnesty commissioned an independent review, and now have decided not to make its results public. 1/
    — Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) April 28, 2023

  9. 9.

    Alison Rose

    @Adam L Silverman:

    The President is risk averse in regard to international affairs

    Someone should ask him why he’s only averse to certain risks and not others. Because the Ukrainians right now sure are bearing a whole lot of fucking risk that we don’t seem to care enough about.

    I know the Biden admin has done a lot, and I appreciate all of it. I also know if 2020 had gone differently, the situation in Ukraine would likely be monumentally worse. But…I don’t know, make Biden and his security people go help bury the bodies or something.

    And fuck russia.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  16. 16.

    Bill Arnold

    @Gin & Tonic:

    and now have decided not to make its results public.

    The original vile and absurd report on Ukraine and subsequent defenses of it were not forgivable, but this is the part that should seal the fate of Amnesty International, with redemption only possible after a serious leadership purge.
    Cover-ups are always a sign of pervasive bad behavior
    .

  17. 17.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Another Scott: It would not surprise me if we do not really have the spare capacity to provide a significant number of serviceable F-16s and sufficient parts to keep them in the air.  That was a factor in the Germany’s delay with providing Leopards.  If it is the case, we aren’t going to admit it publicly.

  18. 18.

    Another Scott

    I wonder if the recent remarks by Stoltenberg and others that “Ukraine’s rightful place is in NATO” is some sort of trial balloon. Just thinking out loud here…

    Imagine that instead of finding ways to bring Ukraine’s military and infrastructure up the status needed to sustain F-16s and FA-18s and all the rest, that instead Ukraine’s NATO membership is fast-tracked.

    Suppose Ukraine joins NATO January 1, 2024. VVP is told that he needs to leave Ukraine or Article 5 will be invoked and his forces on Ukraine’s territory will be targets of NATO forces.

    There are lots of Step 2 pieces missing, of course, but I assume that Stoltenberg’s statements were made for a reason other than praising Ukraine and Zelenskyy. Maybe that other reason is just an implicit wake-up call, maybe its a threat, maybe it’s something else.

    There is more than one way to where Ukraine needs to be.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  19. 19.

    Andrya

    @Another Scott:  I would love to think that could happen, but I think any rational risk analysis would conclude that admitting Ukraine to NATO would be much more dangerous than giving Ukraine advanced fighter jets.  Since the Biden administration won’t give the jets (grrrr) I don’t see any hope that the US would support NATO admission.  (And that’s not even considering what Turkiye would do…)

  21. 21.

    patrick II

    The Russian aircraft are launching the missiles from inside of Russia.  Any counterattack would take place over Russian territory and any damage to the ground from falling aircraft or unreleased bombs would be inside of Russia.  Biden, and NATO generally, have drawn a line for Ukraine against using NATO provided long-range weapons to attack inside of Russia. This may be over that line for them.

    Also, we heard quite a lot a couple of months back about Biden drawing a hard line with Putin about the use of any nuclear weapons.  We have not heard about Putin’s part of that conversation which may have included a warning that he would use nuclear weapons only of Russian territory was attacked. This is just speculation on my part, but I doubt if the U.S./Russian coversation was a one-way street.

    Anyhow, if you wonder why modern tanks and not modern fighters, that is my speculation — Biden still wants to keep the war inside of Ukraine — as he has from the beginning and his “defense only” policy at the beginning of the war.  I have never thought it was tenable to give Russian a safe zone because they will keep on going until Putin is gone or they just can’t.

  24. 24.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Another Scott: It will not happen unless the NATO members vote to change the rules about ascending states that are occupied. Part of the reason Putin has been occupying parts of Ukraine, as well as Georgia, is he knows it prevents them from being allowed to join. And why he’ll fight to the last Russian to keep the territory he’s stolen.

  25. 25.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Bill Arnold:  I do take Austen at his word on the logistics-driven nature of the delay in providing fighters, and I really don’t at all buy the argument that “risk aversion” is what is keeping F-16s from being delivered. US military tech is notorious for its horrendous logistical requirements. It would make zero sense to make the next billion dollars of arms support to Ukraine in fighter aircraft that spend most of their operational lives grounded due to lack of parts, trained mechanics, available airstrips, etc.

    F-18 sounds like a better idea if only for the ruggedness (the War Zone wrote about this a few weeks ago), but sustainment chains are still very time-consuming to set up.

    The best idea that I’ve read about is Swedish Gripens, which have all the required capabilities and, apparently, more reasonable sustainment requirements.

  26. 26.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Carlo Graziani: @Bill Arnold: As we’ve all read, Australia was all ready to sell those F-18s to a US company that provides “adversarial fighter training” (or something like that).  If we were even remotely serious about getting UA fighters, why wouldn’t we have snapped those up and be training UA pilots on those right damn now?  Sigh.  I’m sure there’s some “good reason”.

    I can understand why Finland doesn’t part with those F-18s: if Russia somehow got it into its head to attack Finland, that’d be a *real* problem.  It’s a small country, and those jets could still be useful.  I get it.  But Australia?  They were in the process of selling those old birds off.

  28. 28.

    Another Scott

    @Adam L Silverman: Indeed.

    And everyone in NATO is probably thinking about the best way to change those rules when the time comes (which might not be until after VVP (and Erdogan and Orban) are gone – who knows).

    Still, the Pentagon is infamous for having people write reports considering all kinds of options and ways to solve very difficult problems – like bullets that can potentially go around corners.

    To be clear, I’m not expecting NATO membership before the war ends. But while it would be difficult, it’s another way to change the dynamic in the war.

    Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  29. 29.

    Jay

    @patrick II:

    Gripens are a production aircraft. As fast as they are built, they are shipped off to customers that have paid for them. They arn’t surplus.

    Anybody that want’s to ship F-16s or F18’s to Ukraine will need US approval, and like the M1 Abrams may need to have certain systems removed due to export controls.

  31. 31.

    Jay

    Two Russian volunteers who fought on the side of the Ukrainian Army: were killed in action. They are Dima "Strom", a soldier of the Russian Volunteer Corps, and Dmitry Petrov (call sign "Leshy"). The volunteers were killed while carrying out combat missions on the Bakhmut Front. pic.twitter.com/g0xZiLbb5f— Mr. Parrot ™ 🇺🇦 (@parrot_soldier) April 27, 2023

  32. 32.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Jay: I think there’s also a historical-cutural-military-industrial effect at work here. US military gear suppliers have process habits consequent on having succeeded in Pentagon procurement processes that incentivize a lengthening and complexification of every supply chain beyond what is practically justifiable by any serious industrial rationale. The US Military can afford to operate in the Infinite Resource Approximation, so that normal efficiency considerations do not correct these processes.

    By contrast, the Swedish military operates in a resource-constrained environment. That means that they impose more rational cost-benefit criteria on their procurement decisions.

  33. 33.

    Alison Rose

    @Adam L Silverman:

    It will not happen unless the NATO members vote to change the rules about ascending states that are occupied.

    I presume this has about the same chance of happening as all five frail feet of me does of becoming a WNBA star.

  34. 34.

    gwangung

    @Carlo Graziani: As in, the procurement process has evolved to fit the environment of US Military Industrial Complex economics and it’s not that trivial to have it pop out weapons for a non-US customer?

  35. 35.

    Chetan Murthy

    @gwangung: perhaps add “for a non-US customer who can’t afford or host (perhaps due to safety issues) the full panoply of US MIC contractors” ?

  36. 36.

    Carlo Graziani

    @gwangung: @Chetan Murthy: Yes.

    But there are no customers who can afford the American Way Of War, besides the US

    An analogy: In the US gas costs about 25% of what it costs in Europe, and this has been roughly true for our entire lifetimes. As a result, US and European automobile manufacturing processes diverged radically, so that fuel efficiency averages of European automobile fleets have dominated those of  US fleets. The European auto manufacturers are resource-constrained. The US manufacturers are not.

  37. 37.

    Bill Arnold

    @Adam L Silverman:
    Sorry about that.
    I was mainly noting (well, noticing) that the Australian FA-18 to Ukraine discussion started no later than 1 March 2023. Then it surfaced again like 1-2 weeks ago.

  39. 39.

    Alison Rose

    @Omnes Omnibus: I did :) Two friends sent it to me a few days ago, haha. But thank you, I’m pleased that I’ve made my personality well-understood around this place. That personality being: Cursing, reading, and DM.

  41. 41.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: There are many more F-16s & F/A-18s in the world than there are Gripens, & the Gripens that have been fielded are not in line for replacement like the F-16s or F/A-18s (which all but the latest modernizations are).

    Another way for non-US countries to afford US weapons is receiving U.S. military aid, which another pathway for US tax dollars to fatten the MIC.

    The exorbitant price inflation of the U.S. MIC, & the cross-mergers & aquisitions w/ the European MIC, has”ve driven up the cost structure for weapons procurement across the West. Japan has its own cost problems due to lack of economy of scale. Only the South Korea arms industry can achieve reasonable output at reasonable costs, & Türkiye/Czechia/Poland for some niche systems. This has placed the US & allies in the Indo-Pacific at an enormous disadvantage, specifically in an arms race w/ China.

  42. 42.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: The links between Ukraine & Taiwan has always been spurious, whether in terms of credibility, dominoes or trade offs, just like the one between the unceremonious exit from Afghanistan & the Russian invasion of Ukraine (dominoes). There are very few weapons systems & munitions that Ukraine need ASAP that Taiwan also urgently needs to stock. The US$19B worth of backlogs in US weapons sales to Taiwan are not of the items that are going to Ukraine.

    I do find it ironic that the Biden Administration has been extra cautious in Ukraine to avoid a possible direct military conflict w/ Russia, but had been very willing to take risk in economic and tech. warfare wet China (econ./tech. warfare is how many US & EU based experts on China have been describing Biden’s China policy), helping (along w/ Beijing) to create the conditions that intensify confrontation & conflict, despite all the protestations of wanting to avoid a Cold War or decoupling.

    It’s doubly ironic in that it is Russia that is currently invading a sovereign (de jure & de facto) country, exploiting & magnifying the political divisions in across the West, creating chaos in the Global South, & generally not in a position or inclined to help address global challenges. OTOH, w/ China there remains the possibility of reaching some kind of modus vivendi, where there remains tremendous interdependence & linkages, w/ whom cooperations is imperative to address a range of dire global crises: AGW & energy transition, public health (COVID-19 & fentanyl), Global South debt & development, global financial stability, etc. Unbounded rivalry jeopardizes everyone of the areas where cooperation & collaboration are needed, as is already happening, where each has instead become arenas for Great Power Competition(TM).

    I am not sure if the Biden Administration & NSA Jake Sullivan specifically (in light of his recent speech at Brookings) is blind to the risk ramifications of their executed & proposed China policies, or are fully aware of them but do not care. I think Van Jackson’s long standing criticism of Biden’s (& mainstream Dem’s) foreign policy in general is spot on — they are good at managing crises, but not good at addressing or even being aware of the underlying structures & dynamics that cause crises, & thus not good at preventing crises from happening.

  43. 43.

    Geminid

    @karen marie: Mr. Kilicdoraglu, candidate of the 6-party opposition, has stated that he will approve Sweden’s admission to NATO, while President Erdogan has not (many observers believe he will after the election, but that is not a certainty).

    Otherwise, Kilicdoraglu and his aides promise that they will continue Turkiye’s policies regarding the war in Ukraine that include maintaining trade relations with Russia, allowing civilian flights carrying Russian tourists, and operating the Russia-supplied nuclear plant in Western Turkiye (last week Putin and Erdogan celebrated the first fuel delivery).

    Western and Ukrainian criticism of Turkiye has been muted, possibly because of Turkiye’s strategic importance as a Black Sea power, but also because the other side of Turkiye’s Ukraine policy been extensive military aid to Ukraine.

    As Oryx’s Stijn Mitzer pointed out in his article last November 21, “The Stalwart ally: Turkiye’s Arms Deliveries to Ukraine” (Oryx), Turkish arms deliveries are not publicized and his organization only finds out about them from Ukrainian officials or when they appear on the battlefield. Still,

         …Turkiye’s military support [ranks] among the most expansive of all NATO members.

    Besides the lack of publicity, Mitzer noted another difference in Turkiye’s arms contributions:

        Though Turkiye has remained the friendliest of NATO countries to Russia, it is also the only NATO country that has supplied armaments to Ukraine without the explicit condition not to use those against targets inside Russia. Ukraine has gladly made use of that operational flexibility, using Bayraktar TB-2 UCAVs to strike targets in Kursk and Belgorad Oblasts on numerous occasions.

    The Oryx article details known Turkish arms shipments as of last November. They were substantial, including guided missile systems comparable to the US HIMARS that were supplied in advance of the HIMARS provision last June.

    Another good article dates from before Russia invaded. From The Defense Post January 25, 2022:

        What is Driving Turkiye’s Increasing Cooperation With Ukaine?

    As the world looks warily at the Russian troop buildup on Ukraine’s borders, Turkiye has been ramping up its delivery of weapons and equipment to Ukraine in recent months, at the cost of angering Moscow…..*

    A reconstituted Russian empire would be a major geo-political threat to Turkiye, so a new Turkish government would likely continue military support of Ukraine, even as it declines to join economic sanctions regimes towards Russia. The same is probably true of the Black Sea Grain Deal, which Erdogan and his Defense Minister emphasize is in Turkiye’s “vital” national interest.

     

    *The last A400 transport plane delivering these weapons was caught on the tarmac in western Ukraine when Russia attacked. Russia did not destroy it, but Russia would not let it fly out for another 8 months- a minor example of the “frenemies” game Putin and Erdogan have played throughout this war.

  44. 44.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Geminid: Türkiye has also served both as a key conduit & a significant supplier for sanctioned goods to Russia. The may well continue under the opposition, as well.

  45. 45.

    Geminid

    @YY_Sima Qian: A top Treasury official visited Turkiye in March to press that country on its supply to Russia of military-use electronics and other goods. At the time, Turkiye said they were being vigilant but would tighten more up in this area if neccesary. I have not seen reports of action on the Turkish side, but a Turkish company was included in a Treasury sanctions list released since.

    The Treasury official made a stop in the UAE before traveling on to Turkiye. This trip was not highly publicized, but diplomatic reporters were briefed by “a senior government official” about the talks.

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