Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Republicans cannot even be trusted with their own money.

Imperialist aggressors must be defeated, or the whole world loses.

Republicans choose power over democracy, every day.

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

A thin legal pretext to veneer over their personal religious and political desires.

Boeing: repeatedly making the case for high speed rail.

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

I’d try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

Today’s gop: why go just far enough when too far is right there?

Yeah, with this crowd one never knows.

If you are still in the gop, you are either an extremist yourself, or in bed with those who are.

President Musk and Trump are both poorly raised, coddled 8 year old boys.

Dear elected officials: Trump is temporary, dishonor is forever.

Everybody saw this coming.

The desire to stay informed is directly at odds with the need to not be constantly enraged.

American History and Black History can not be separated.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires Republicans to act in good faith.

We need to vote them all out and restore sane Democratic government.

The gop is a fucking disgrace.

It is possible to do the right thing without the promise of a cookie.

Innocent people don’t delay justice.

“Loving your country does not mean lying about it’s history.”

It’s the corruption, stupid.

I see no possible difficulties whatsoever with this fool-proof plan.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 431: The Butcher’s Bill from Uman

War for Ukraine Day 431: The Butcher’s Bill from Uman

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

And Russia continues the bombardment of civilian infrastructure and civilians themselves:

Here’s the entire text of The Kyiv Independent‘s tweet:

⚡️Governors: Russia hits 9 regions, kills 1 civilian over past day.

Over the past 24 hours, Russian forces have attacked nine out of Ukraine’s 25 regions – Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Luhansk, and Donetsk oblasts, according to the regional governors.

Pavlograd:

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

The invader will definitely not succeed in taking away our peace, which is a natural part of the Ukrainian character – address by the President of Ukraine

30 April 2023 – 16:31

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today we celebrate the professional day of our border guards in Ukraine.

They were the first to face the occupier in the east, they are holding the border firmly – from Volyn to Kharkiv region, and they will definitely return to all points of our state border in Donbas and Crimea. The day will surely come when Ukrainian border control for passengers at the international airports of our Donetsk and Simferopol will once again be quite commonplace.

The invader will definitely not succeed in taking away our peace, which is a natural part of the Ukrainian character… Peace and the desire for freedom for our entire state, for all our regions, cities, and communities. We will definitely gain it.

I would like to especially celebrate our border guards, who, together with all the defense and security forces of Ukraine, are defending our country and our people in the battles in Donbas… The most fierce areas… Maryinka, Bakhmut, Lyman… Thank you, warriors!

I would also like to mention the fighters of the Lutsk border guard detachment who are defending the Avdiivka direction… Very powerful! Thank you!

Southern directions, where the units of our border guards always effectively “subtract” the occupier… Thank you! Thank you to the servicemen of the Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv detachments who are defending our border with the terrorist state! Thank you to everyone who strengthens our border in Volyn, Rivne, Zhytomyr and Kyiv regions!

I spoke with French President Macron – as always, it was a long and meaningful conversation. We are coordinating our positions to give even more strength to our soldiers and to speed up the end of the war with our victory. I am grateful to France and to Emmanuel personally for supporting our country and our people. Now, in this conversation, Mr. President has confirmed the supply of exactly what I mentioned in the previous conversation. The speed and specificity of the response is very important, it is something that greatly enhances our capabilities. Thank you for this arms package!

It is very important that Russia receives ever stronger signals that the world will not forgive any of Russia’s acts of terror. And that as many global players as possible are absolutely principled in upholding the sanctions regime against Russia for terror.

I thank each and every person in the world who helps strengthen the isolation of terrorists and stop any supply of weapons and their components to terrorists, who works to block the Russian military-industrial complex and to strengthen the defense capabilities of the whole of Europe.

Following this week, I would like to especially thank our partners from Denmark for Caesars; Slovenia for armored vehicles; Spain for tanks; and Germany for additional defense intentions regarding armored vehicles and shells, and for air defense…

I am grateful to America for funding in the amount of USD 1 billion 250 million to support our budget and resilience.

I am grateful to the Netherlands for the parliamentary decision to train Ukrainian soldiers on advanced Western systems. I am grateful to Italy for its efforts to rebuild our country as soon as possible. I am grateful to Croatia for its new assistance in the treatment of our defenders after being wounded in combat.

Remaining as united as possible, maintaining the greatest principled stance to protect our common values and implementing defense agreements as fast as possible, all together in Ukraine, in Europe, in the world, we will be able to prevent Russia from protracting the war and restore a normal, just peace.

Glory to all who are in combat for Ukraine!

Blessed memory to all our heroes of different times who gave their lives for independence!

Glory to Ukraine!

There is no update today from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. There is a statement regarding investigating corruption, but I haven’t seen any reporting, so I’m not sure what it is specifically referring to.

PBS Newshour did an interview with MG Kyrylo Budanov, the Director of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence:

Bakhmut:

Yesterday The Kyiv Independent‘s Illia Ponomarenko tweeted:

Today the Ukrainian officer who tweets as Tatarigami provided some clarity to Ponomarenko’s tweet. First tweet from the actual thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

2/ Wagner convicts have limited value and only make advances when heavy artillery fire is present. If the artillery is suppressed or runs out of ammunition, they don’t make progress. Unfortunately, the lack of ammunition on our side hinders counter-battery fire. 
3/ Serious tensions exist between Wagner and the Ministry of Defense. These tensions exist not only at the top level but also at the regular level. Some Wagner units act as policing forces, commit crimes, and openly disrespect military commanders with impunity. 
4/ Poor cooperation between Wagner and MoD results in a lack of coordination between them. The MoD only establishes control over territories captured by Wagner, while Wagner continues to assault forward without proper coordination. 
5/ The emergence of multiple “PMCs”: Wagner, Potok, Veteran, Yenisey, Skif, Tigr, Irbis, Rys’ and Wolves have created additional coordination complexities, including logistical challenges, a lack of clear command chains, and insufficient intelligence exchange and coordination. 
6/ Example: A newly formed “Wolves” squad drove to Ukrainian lines without coordination, attempting to “gain reputation”. However, due to their lack of knowledge about the area and the situation, they drove into a landmine and died. The wounded members had to be evacuated. 
7/ In Bakhmut, Wagner manages to move forward by turning defensive positions into rubble with intense artillery, mortar, TOS, and air support fire. They are also aware of the Ukrainian forces’ lack of artillery ammunition and are not afraid of counter-battery fire. 
8/ However, Prigozhin himself admitted that without artillery ammo, Wagner is ineffective, and they can only move forward with huge losses that they cannot sustain. The MoD seems reluctant to provide more support, likely due to their fear of a counter-attack at any moment. 
9/ Without artillery superiority on the field, Wagner’s tactics don’t work and yield no results and lead to fruitless and unsustainable casualty ratios. We need much more ammo, artillery and other counter-battery means to nullify their assault capabilities. 
10/ Wagner troops lack both training and experience in preparing complex and organized defenses. Organizing defenses, establishing firing positions, and managing logistics in a well-structured manner is difficult, and Wagner is not designed or equipped for it. 
11/ While it’s unclear if our command will decide to counter-attack in the area, it’s quite possible that what russia was able to achieve in the course of 9 months will be reversed within a week and result in a breakthrough and encirclement of Horlivka and the rears of Donetsk. 
12/ While this is mere speculation on my part, considering the poor state of their troops in Bakhmut, launching a counter-offensive in this direction could cause a serious blow to russian morale. This is just one of many potential directions for such an attack. 

Here is a follow on reply/answer to a question:

We, our allies, and our partners must do better!

Kramatorsk:

Kherson:

Kupiansk:

Nikopol:

Mariinka:

Professor Snyder’s assessment is correct:

Here’s more on Operation Polecat:

Here is the full text of Gerashchenko’s tweet:

Ukrainian Defenders rescued a rare animal, listed in the Red Book of Ukraine – a marbled polecat. There were only about 100 animals of these species. But the war might make them vanish completely.

They live in parts of Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia regions – exactly where active combat is.

Russian ecocide threatens to destroy the rare fauna in Ukraine. About 650 animal species (plus about 750 types of plants and mushrooms) are already at risk because of the war. The most vulnerable are the steppe eagle, steppe marmot and marbled polecat.

It will be a huge job for Ukrainians after Victory to evaluate the damage to nature, obtain compensation for it and make every effort to restore the population of animals and birds whose habitats have been invaded by the Russian aggressor.

📹 tania7g7

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos at his TikTok, so here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Army Cats & Dogs Twitter feed:

I think that’s actually a Shiba Inu, which would make him a Fella!

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

38Comments

  2. 2.

    smith

    Adam, I appreciate your unwinding these Twitter threads. I really want to avoid contributing any more clicks to Elmo than necessary.

  3. 3.

    MoCaAce

    That polecat is adorbs!!!  Would totally rip your face off but I still want one.

    and thank you Adam for all the work you do.  I long for the day I no longer need to read it.

  4. 4.

    japa21

    I think we can all predict how the Russians treat animals they come across.

    I mentioned once before that Bakhmut might serve as a jumping off point for a Ukranian counter-attack and it was generally scoffed at. But the point about it being a total morale buster for the Russians is a legitimate one.

  8. 8.

    Geminid

    There was an interesting report from the Kyiv Independent about an important meeting today:

        General Zaluzhnyi meets with NATO commander in Europe, discusses ‘possible scenarios.’

    Ukraine’s commander in chief met with Chistoper Cavoli, commander in chief of NATO and US forces in Europe, reporting on the current situation across the front line.

    The Kyiv Independent tweet shows Zaluzhnyi and Cavoli standing side by side, smiling. General Zaluzhnyi is a big man.

  9. 9.

    Lums Better Half

    Adam, I’m not sure if this is possible, but is there a way to have the thread reader sections be dark text on a light background? Or make a larger left margin? I have difficulty reading them as they are. Thanks for your efforts.

  11. 11.

    NutmegAgain

    Polecat, yes! after last night’s post I went down a wiki rabbit hole. European polecats are Mustelids (weasels, badgers, otters etc), subsp. Caniformia–meaning that they are closer to dogs than cats. Very cool beasties.

  13. 13.

    Jay

    Most of the "neutral" russian athletes who were admitted to the world judo championship are related either to the russian army or rosgvardiya. Ppl found on the Internet their photos in uniforms or posing w/ shoigu. This is whitewashing of criminals @OlympicsSource: Grunt pic.twitter.com/BZkPrb2XgY— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) April 30, 2023

  14. 14.

    Alison Rose

    I know looks shouldn’t factor into anything and he could be the prettiest bitch on the block and would still be evil incarnate, but damn…prigozhin really out here looking like the dude who taught Hannibal Lecter everything he knows. If the monster under kids’ beds had a human face, there it is right there.

    Being someone with no military or military-adjacent or weapon-adjacent experience, I’ve really appreciated United24’s Talking Tactics video series. The most recent one is about the Patriot air defense systems. 

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  15. 15.

    Rich2506

    On media pessimism that Ukraine will win, I wonder if our media people are half-consciously looking forward to victory so they can say how dramatic and unexpected the victory was. “The heroic Ukrainian battled enormous odds…”

  17. 17.

    Mike in NC

    @Rich2506:  I don’t think so. Our MSM still considers FOX News to be a legitimate news organization, yet we know how much Tucker Carlson and the rest of the talking heads over there were/are committed to Putin.

  22. 22.

    Tony G

    Thirteen months ago I thought that this kind of slaughter of Ukrainian civilians might change the ideology of pro-Putin “leftists” like Chris Hedges.  I abandoned that illusion long ago.

  23. 23.

    Jay

    "Why shouldn't you pick up lighters, power banks, and flashlights from the ground — especially in deoccupied territories.Such "surprises" can await in any subject. Be sure to show this video to your children."Actually this is a super important video. pic.twitter.com/fCFOkYrHFA— Justartsandstuff 🇨🇦🇺🇦🇹🇼 (@justartsndstuff) April 24, 2023

  24. 24.

    Jay

    ⚡️BREAKING: Unconfirmed reports claim Russia has deployed 4 missile carriers to the Black Sea.This is in addition to 17 strategic bombers and 2 submarines being allegedly deployed. https://t.co/eSChpWIbjN pic.twitter.com/muzxQU5JnK— The Enforcer (@ItsTheEnforcer) April 30, 2023

    ⚡️BREAKING: Unconfirmed reports allege that Russia has launched many more than just 17 strategic bombers.A resident near a Russian Air Force Base claims that Russia “have raised everything”.— The Enforcer (@ItsTheEnforcer) April 30, 2023

  26. 26.

    bookworm1398

    @13 Jay. Doesn’t Russia have universal military service? So every male would have been in uniform at some point.

  28. 28.

    Chetan Murthy

    @bookworm1398: I don’t think it’s “universal”.  Every young male is eligible for conscription for their hitch, but only some percentage are taken.  And anybody with connections or money can and does avoid it.  At least, that’s what I’ve read.

  30. 30.

    Jay

    @Chetan Murthy:

    yeah, one of the silovi claimed his kid was with Wagner arty, 60 km behind the front lines. while his prized Tesla was racking up tickets in Moscow.

    Ruzzian milblogger vatnicks have exposed that there is an entire “special unit”, company sized, (240+) composed of the children of silovi, who spend their day supporting the SMO, by being 140km behind the front lines surfing Pornhub.

  31. 31.

    Jay

    @bookworm1398:

    Ruzzia can support an intake of 140k conscripts twice a year out of 750,000 eligible per year. So basically like TFG or Dubya Dubya Me Too, if you have money or connections, it’s easy to avoid conscription until you age out.

  35. 35.

    Chetan Murthy

    Russian woman overheard saying #Ukraine‘s Zelensky is “handsome young man” with “good sense of humor” is fined 40,000 rubles for discrediting Russian army.

    What, Russian soldiers are ugly men with no sense of humor?

    “Law” in #Russia is a bad joke.https://t.co/veng0gjnxc
    — Steven Pifer (@steven_pifer) May 1, 2023

  36. 36.

    Carlo Graziani

    @bookworm1398: Yes, but it’s more complicated than that.

    Every military organization has a design, which includes manpower provisioning. That design generally gets set 5-10 years before it fully comes into being, because there is a huge amount of logistical and training infrastructure that must be funded, continuously, over that period so that the army that results may conform to its design.

    Prior to February 2022, the Russian force design provided for approximately 25% draftees, serving in service roles for the 75% “contract soldiers” (i.e. volunteer servicemen) who would provide the fighting edge. The rationale for this design was not unreasonable at the time: the Russians expected to fight minor border wars on wildly asymmetric terms, enforcing their imperial foreign policy goals without ever engaging in major conflicts with peers or superior powers such as the NATO alliance.

    Their design therefore never really called for true univeral military training (UMT), or for it’s natural consequence, an active or inactive military reserve—a Rolodex of former conscripts with military training subject to service recall in the event of a military emergency. This is the reason that Russian force-generation efforts through “mobilizations” have had such a madcap, improvised, wasteful aspect to them: it takes years to design in an orderly process to take in and train new recruits while calling up reserves, and Russia never invested in such a process.

    By contrast, Ukraine has had UMT with an inactive reserve system essentially continuously since independence from the Soviet Union. This is, in my view, one of the key differentiating factors and structural advantages that the UA exploited in 2022, and one that is still insufficiently recognized: while the Russians were stupidly feeding their manpower into prepared meat grinders at Severdonetsk and in the wider Donbas, and beginning their improviised searches for badly-trained replacements, the UA was husbanding it’s manpower reserves, training them up, and getting them ready for their counter-strikes at Kherson and Kharkiv.

    At bottom it’s an institutional organization issue: If you didn’t begin preparing for a large-scale conflict 5-10 years ago, you might as well not have bothered. The Russian military and political leadership were too blind and arrogant to understand this.

  37. 37.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Carlo Graziani: To add a little more detail, I don’t remember who it was here (maybe you) who described how, immediately after Putin took power, he started paring back (more like “ruthlessly downsizing”) the entire apparatus of training grounds, schools, etc, that had previously supported the system for mass call-ups and mobilization.  Vast numbers of training officers and cadre (the long-term officers who would form the backbone of mobilized units) were turfed-out/retired and those training-grounds were sold off.  And then, early-on in this war Putin’s military sent their remaining training staff to Ukraine (as losses mounted).

    So when it came time for mobilization, there were no training staff, no cadre, that had not been committed to the war (and were dying in droves) to bring the newly-mobilized or reactivated reservists up to scratch.

    All of the above is a long way of saying what Carlo did: Russia simply wasn’t planning for a large war, hadn’t built their military for it over decades, and hence, well, this is what you get.

  38. 38.

    gvg

    Very late comment but this thread’s readers may find it interesting. WSJ daily news brief reports “The Air National Guard plays an outsize drone role.
    The Guard, once viewed largely as a reserve force, now provides half of the Air Force’s targeting analysis and flies more than a third of its global MQ-9 Reaper drone missions, according to data provided by officials to WSJ. Its role in operating drones and supporting Ramstein Air Base in Germany in processing data focused on the Russian military and its invasion of Ukraine helps explain why the installation where accused leaker Airman Jack Teixeira served had access to Ukraine-related secrets.”

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