Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

I like you, you’re my kind of trouble.

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

We are aware of all internet traditions.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

Not all heroes wear capes.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

Bark louder, little dog.

A lot of Dems talk about what the media tells them to talk about. Not helpful.

Battle won, war still ongoing.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

I did not have this on my fuck 2022 bingo card.

My years-long effort to drive family and friends away has really paid off this year.

This blog will pay for itself.

And we’re all out of bubblegum.

The most dangerous place for a black man in America is in a white man’s imagination.

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

Innocent people don’t delay justice.

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 433: You Have Questions, I (May) Have (Satisfactory) Answers (or Not)

War for Ukraine Day 433: You Have Questions, I (May) Have (Satisfactory) Answers (or Not)

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Last night YY_Sima Qian asked:

Adam, I under & fully agree w/ the moral/pragmatic imperative to highlight Russian war crimes, including those via missile strikes. However; in addition to summarizing the civilian toll from the Russian crimes, do we have a sense of the targets that might have more immediate impact on the war that might have been struck? The Russians were targeting power generation & transmission infrastructure through the winter to degrade Ukrainian industrial capacity & create harsher conditions for the Ukrainian civilian population. What are they targeting now?

A more “rational” target list would still include power infrastructure, transportation links, Ukrainian weapons plants, munitions depots, & especially staging areas for Ukrainian units gathering for the upcoming offensive.  Sometimes I see posts about Russian missiles striking Ukrainian depots or other presumably important military targets on Chinese social media, w/ likely from Russian social media. However, they are invariably exaggerated & often fabricated. OTOH, I am not seeing many reports targets more relevant to the Ukrainian war effort on Western MSM or social media. Either Ukraine is keeping mum on the effects of the strikes much like their casualties, or the Russians really are using their increasingly precious cruise missile solely as terror weapons.

Also, 15 cruise missiles launched from 11 strategic bombers is really inefficient operations.

My understanding from the news reporting and analysis from subject matter experts is that the Russians are still targeting civilian infrastructure including civilian residences – both apartments and homes. The purpose seems to be twofold. The first is to terrorize the Ukrainians as much as possible in the attempt to break their resilience and cohesion; both personal/psychological and social/societal. The second is to force the Ukrainians to both position their air defense assets in locations to defend against these strikes and then to draw down their precious munitions stocks trying to stop them. This is intended to result in Ukrainian air defense not be available on the lines of contact and axes of battle with the Russians and to deplete the Ukrainian air defense capacity and capability so that it isn’t available for use in combat against the Russian reinvaders.

It is unfortunately, then appropriate to indicate that the air defense is active over Kyiv:

This is the current air raid alert map for Ukraine as of 6:45 PM EDT:

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

We are preparing a large sanctions package, the decision will be made soon – address by the President of Ukraine

2 May 2023 – 20:05

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

A brief report of the day.

The first point is the military cabinet. This is a special work with key commanders and those who provide defense. Obviously this is confidential work, its details are undisclosed. But just like the meetings of the Staff, the military cabinet also works regularly to synchronize our most important defensive and offensive actions.

The second point is sanctions. I held a meeting on strengthening sanctions regimes, both our own and those of our partners.

We are closely monitoring how the terrorist state is trying to circumvent sanctions, recording each such direction, and working together with our partners to block it. We are preparing a large sanctions package. The decision will be made soon.

Third, international events. This May and the following months will be quite active for Ukraine in the international sphere. There will be a lot of negotiations-related work, international events that will strengthen our defense. We are working on everything. Today I held several meetings on what is planned for this week and for the near future.

Fourth, I held a meeting with Prime Minister Shmyhal. Coordination and preparation of decisions. We are preparing conceptual security solutions for the development of Ukraine and our infrastructure, both now and after the war. We are also preparing for the planned international meetings on the reconstruction of Ukraine and relevant negotiations with partners.

And fifth, today’s international meetings and conversations.

I met with a delegation of the Portuguese Assembly headed by the President of the Assembly. It was a productive meeting.

I thanked them for supporting our country and people. The topic of the conversation is quite broad, but the main thing is what unites us… Security for all Europeans, stability, and therefore further development and strengthening of the European and Euro-Atlantic community. In this context, I noted what decisions we expect from the partners’ summit in Vilnius in July, the NATO summit.

Today I spoke with the Chairperson of the African Union, the President of the Comoros. It was an important conversation and important mutual understanding. I thanked for the support on global platforms, in particular at the UN. I invited him to join the implementation of our Peace Formula and assured that Ukraine is ready to be a reliable guarantor of food security. We are doing everything to eliminate any damage from Russian aggression both for our people and all our partners.

I thank everyone in the world who supports Ukraine!

Glory to all our warriors who are now in combat for the sake of our country, at combat posts and on combat missions!

Today I would like to especially celebrate the warriors of the 77th separate airmobile and 93rd separate mechanized brigades defending the Bakhmut direction. They are really effective! Thank you, guys!

Glory to Ukraine!

There is no operational update from the Ukrainian MOD, but they have posted a statement from Deputy Minister of Defense Malar:

Former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer has returned. Here are his latest updates from Kreminna and Bakhmut:

 

Bakhmut:

According to Rob Lee, those are Russian thermobaric munitions going off. But he’s basing his assessment on the claims of a Russian military blogger’s post on Telegram. Given that the Ukrainian MOD is attributing the photo to an actual, known Ukrainian photojournalist and the Russian milblogger is attributing it to some not clearly delineated Wagner PMC camera, I’m inclined to go with the Ukrainian MOD, but we may just have to chalk this one up to the fog of war.

This does not seem to be an efficient use of personnel:

He also, apparently, made some kind of claim that the Territorial Defense Commander had been killed, which, according to the Kyiv Independent‘s Illia Ponomarenko is not true:

Apparently this was what Ponomarenko was referring to:

The Ukrainian Military Media Center posted this statement from the Commander of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade, which is also known as the Kholodnyi Yar Brigade:

North Saltivka, Kharkiv Oblast:

Bryansk, Russia:

Someone really hates the railroad in Bryansk!

Here is Russia’s butcher’s bill:

The Kyiv Independent‘s Illia Ponomarenko takes a look at the Patriot air defense system in his latest reporting:

The wait is over — after almost a year of refusals and hesitation, Western-provided MIM-104 Patriot air defense systems have finally arrived and become operational in Ukraine.

On April 21 and 26, Ukraine’s Air Force confirmed the full employment of two Patriot batteries.

As Ukraine’s own Soviet-era air defense capabilities are reportedly dwindling, Patriots are expected to take up the fight against not only Russian aircraft and cruise missiles but also ballistic systems Ukraine had nothing to counter with.

It also means that Patriots will be put to a serious battlefield test for the first time in at least 20 years, after two decades of upgrades and modifications.

In high-intensity combat against the hardest targets, the Patriot can confirm or disprove its widely-regarded reputation as one of the world’s best air defense systems.

The Ukrainian Air Force discloses little to no information regarding the Patriots it acquired.

On April 21, following reports of the Patriots’ arrival in Ukraine, the Air Force branch commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleschuk published a picture of him standing next to the system’s launcher.

The commander also confirmed the deployment of the MIM-104 in Ukraine with fully trained Ukrainian personnel. Ukrainian crews completed the training in the United States and Germany between January and late March, even though a training course typically takes up to 10 months.

Later, the Air Force also published a video showing a Ukrainian-operated system. Judging from the launcher’s specific woodland camouflage and the fact that it was mounted on a MAN truck, it was a German-donated system.

The Air Force said the Patriots, in its use, can intercept both aerodynamic and ballistic targets. Among its most desired targets, the Ukrainian personnel specifically mentions Russia’s Sukhoi Su-35 fighter, known for its enhanced maneuverability, as well as Kh-22, a Soviet-made cruise missile type that Russia has repeatedly used to deliver devastating strikes on Ukrainian cities.

The Russian Kh-22 is responsible for one of the deadliest attacks on civilians: the Jan. 14 strike upon an apartment building in Dnipro that killed 45 people. The Air Force repeatedly stated it could not intercept this obsolete though destructive missile until the West provided Ukraine with Patriot systems.

Judging from the video, the German-donated Patriot battery was deployed with Ukraine’s 138th Air Defense Brigade based in Dnipro and responsible for covering the country’s eastern regions from Sumy to Zaporizhia.

“Arms manufacturers now have a unique opportunity to examine their performance claims here, on the battlefields of Ukraine,” Oleschuk said.

“So we will try this.”

From the beginning, Ukraine positioned Patriots as the lacking component to counter Russia’s extensive use of ballistic systems, such as Iskander Ms.

The Ukrainian calls for Patriot systems were also triggered by the threat of Russian use of Iranian-provided ballistic missile systems Fateh-110 and Zolfagar.

Despite many fears, Russia has not yet used or acquired Iranian missiles. The Iranian support of Russia was considered a major threat to Ukraine’s longer-range air defense, which still relies heavily on old S-300 family systems and Buk M1s.

And meanwhile, Ukraine finds itself in a very shaky situation regarding its own stockpile of S-300 and Buk-M1s, which, according to the leaked Pentagon papers, were expected to run empty by May.

Yet, over the last weeks, the Ukrainian Air Force continued countering new attacks, intercepting most of the incoming Russian missiles. Overnight into May 1, the Ukrainian military reported having destroyed 15 out of 18 cruise missiles Kh-101 and Kh-555 fired from Russian strategic bombers.

Nonetheless, Russian missiles that penetrated the Ukrainian defense inflicted devastating damage to the city of Pavlograd, where they reportedly hit a Ukrainian ammunition depot. According to local authorities, dozens of buildings were damaged, and at least 34 civilians were injured as of early May 1.

Besides, in theory, Patriot systems can be a solution against the Russian use of S-300/400 missiles switched to surface-to-surface mode as ballistic munitions, which time and again inflict damage upon Ukrainian cities.

But, according to the Air Force spokesman Colonel Yuriy Ihnat, this is hardly a workable solution. Russia has between 6,000 and 7,000 S-300 system munitions, which are inaccurate as surface-to-surface missiles but are also abundant and destructive.

At the same time, Ukraine, in any case, will always have a limited number of Patriot interceptors that cost at least $1 million apiece.

So, according to Air Force’s Ihnat, it’s better to combat Russia’s launchers on the ground with longer-range surface-to-surface missiles like MGM-140 ATACMS, which Ukraine has been requesting from the U.S. for a long time.

Ukraine’s military did not reveal which version of the Patriot missile system it received.

Defense Express, a Kyiv-based defense consulting agency, identified it as the PAC-3 variant specialized in ballistic targets, the Ukrainian air defense’s biggest problem.

The Air Force commander also published a selfie showing him standing next to what the Ukrainian Military Center, a defense expert community, identified as AN/MPQ-53 radar set. This might point out that the first Patriot fire unit acquired by Ukraine belongs to the PAC-2 interceptor family.

PAC-2 is the Patriot upgrade that particularly uses interceptors with blast fragmentation warheads that detonate in the target’s proximity and thus destroy it with a certain degree of probability.

The version is believed to have an operational range of up to 160 kilometers and intercepts aircraft and cruise missiles at altitudes of up to 20 kilometers. Regarding ballistic missiles, the operational range is limited to some 40 kilometers.

At the same time, the PAC-3 family uses a more advanced Hit-To-Kill technology designed by Lockheed Martin. It has two interceptors that first destroy an incoming missile by colliding with it in a direct body-to-body impact and then also destroy the falling debris.

PAC-3 is thus expected to provide much more effective protection against ballistic missiles, the successful defense against which demands their complete destruction in the air.

Ever since the early 1990s, both PAC-2 and PAC-3 variants had numerous upgrades enhancing their capabilities.

On April 26, the Ukrainian Air Force reported the second Patriot battery, presumably coming from the United States, as part of a $1.8 billion defense aid package already operational in Ukraine. It’s unknown whether the second Patriot battery uses PAC-2 or PAC-3 versions.

Apart from that, Ukraine currently expects transfers from The Netherlands, which vowed to provide Kyiv with not a complete Patriot battery but only two launchers and missiles.

For the sake of comparison, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky in his March 29 speech, said Ukraine needed 20 Patriot batteries. And the U.S. Army itself, according to the 2018 Military Balance database, operates nearly 50 Patriot batteries.

So the Ukrainian military, with its limited stockpile, will have to decide very carefully between the most important targets deep in Ukraine’s rear it wants to protect with Patriots.

And it will have to defend the systems themselves. It’s very unlikely that Ukraine will get Patriots deployed to front-line areas within the kill zone of Russian aircraft or tube and rocket artillery.

Now, Patriots are becoming a top priority target for Russia, which would get a lot of propagandistic bravado from having a famed U.S.-produced system destroyed in Ukraine.

Much more at the link!

I’m aware of the new dueling analytical pieces over whether F-16s or F/A 18s or Grippens do or don’t make sense for Ukraine. I’m going to push that to tomorrow night. I didn’t miss it or haven’t forgotten it, I’m just pushing it off a day.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new tweets or videos from Patron’s accounts, so here is some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Army Cats & Dogs feed:

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

32Comments

  1. 1.

    Anonymous At Work

    Kevin McCarthy put a strong statement of support for Ukraine out, while visiting Israel.  Pandering or good sign?  He sold his credibility out a long time ago but is this a “everyone loves Ukraine, until TFG forces the issue”?

  2. 2.

    NutmegAgain

    That short video of a lone person playing with a small child on the merry-go-round in North Saltivka is beyond poignant. Bittersweet for certain. I hope they both survive, and better, find a way to thrive.

  3. 3.

    PaulB

    As always, thank you so much for these updates, Adam. It’s an enormous effort, particularly when you consider how many days you’ve doing it, but it’s greatly appreciated. I read these every day.

    One question: do we know how many more missiles Russia has ready to deploy? Are they in danger of running low, and thus sparing Ukraine from those ongoing war crimes? Or do they have sufficient to keep this up for the weeks and months ahead?

  4. 4.

    Manyakitty

    @Anonymous At Work: I trust not one single mouth noise that oozes from his filthy face hole. He sometimes says the right things, but he crumbles by the next day.

  6. 6.

    Dan B

    Informative post about RU strategy.  I hope dozens of Patriots and other defensive weapons arrive rapidly.

    Thanks for these posts.  They’re valuable if not always fun to read.

  7. 7.

    Adam L Silverman

    @PaulB: Thank you for the kind words. You are most welcome.

    Here’s what The Kyiv Independent reported back in JAN 2023:

    https://kyivindependent.com/how-many-missiles-does-russia-have-left/

    People have been having this argument since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

    Western claims that Russia is running out of advanced, high-precision missiles have floated in the news since March. But more than 10 months into the all-out war, Russian missiles continue to rain down on Ukrainian cities.

    The question of how many of them are left became especially stark in the past three months, when Russia began pounding Ukraine’s energy grid with mass attacks every 1-2 weeks. These strikes used a range of different missiles, some repurposed from their primary uses, backed up by Iranian kamikaze drones.

    The short answer is, no one outside Russia has indisputable numbers on its stockpiles and production rates. Ukraine released figures but they have not been independently verified. There are also estimates from Western analysts relying on observable clues.

    Many estimates agree on one thing: Russia’s strategic bombing campaign is burning through missiles at an unsustainable rate. If it keeps going, Russia should come to a point where it won’t be able to launch mass strikes every 1-2 weeks anymore, even if it keeps dipping into its strategic reserves.

    Ukraine says that this point is just three mass strikes away.

    But Russia won’t run out — as in, literally have no more missiles to shoot, even if its stocks are truly that low. So far, it’s been able to continue manufacturing modern cruise missiles in spite of sanctions and reportedly has a plan to source missiles, in addition to drones, from Iran.

    In short, missile strikes will continue but they may soon become less frequent and drones might have to do more heavy lifting. But to achieve its strategic bombing goals – destroy Ukraine’s energy system – Russia needs to be able to hit Ukraine with as much as it can, as often as it can.

    Ukrainian estimates

    Ukraine’s most detailed claim about Russia’s missile situation came in a chart tweeted by Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov on Nov. 22, purporting to show the difference in Russia’s arsenal between Feb. 23, before the full-scale invasion, and Nov. 18.

    The chart says Russia went from 900 Iskander ballistic missiles to 119, making only 48 new ones in this period. Reznikov claimed that Russia had spent 391 of its 500 Kalibr cruise missiles, while making 120 new ones. For Kh-101 cruise missiles, 132 were used, while 144 were left in stockpile, with 120 newly manufactured.

    According to Reznikov, Russia also used half of its stock of 300 Kh-555 cruise missiles, as well as 16 of its 42 Kinzhal ballistic missiles, though it built 16 more to replace them. Anti-ship missiles like the Onyx (Oniks) have been repurposed to fire on Ukrainian land targets as well. Reznikov’s chart said Russia used 123 out of a stockpile of 470.

    The chart also provided figures on other missiles — Kh-22s and Kh-32s (pre-war stockpile of 370, with 250 used); and Kh-35s (pre-war stockpile of 500, with 360 more built and 504 used).

    Reznikov’s chart quickly became out of date as Russia launched hundreds of missiles at Ukraine throughout December.

    In a more recent, Jan. 4 statement, Vadym Skibitsky, spokesman of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Defense Ministry, said that Russia had enough advanced missiles left for up to three massive attacks, if each one uses about 80 missiles. Similar estimates were echoed by other Ukrainian officials.

    After that, Skibitsky said, Russia would be stuck waiting for the factories to pump out enough for each subsequent attack — at a rate of about 50 cruise missiles produced per month. As for ballistic missiles, Military Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov said Russia is barely making any Iskanders. The production rate for Kinzhals appears to be low as well, according to the defense ministry.

    Russia responded to speculations with bravado. Deputy Head of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said in December that the country would ramp up production of new-generation weapons.

    Moscow on Dec. 29 boasted that it will never run out of Kalibrs. The statement didn’t mention other types but Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly talked about developing new hypersonic weapons.

    Russia then kept bombarding Ukraine through the New Year holiday weekend. Since then, almost two weeks have gone by without a mass strike. But Natalia Humeniuk, Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command spokeswoman, said on Dec. 11 that Russia is preparing to unleash another massive missile strike very soon.

    Expert analysis on production and use

    Ukraine’s estimates should be taken with a grain of salt. It is one of the war’s direct participants and its defense relies on control of information and ability to attract military aid from other countries.

    However, Ukraine’s intelligence came out with some of the most pessimistic estimates about how fast Russia can make cruise missiles. And there are publicly available clues in the way Russia uses its missiles that suggest stockpile depletion.

    At the start of the full-scale invasion, the most modern missiles took to the air in large numbers. Over time, Russia began mixing in older models, even less accurate ones from Soviet times. In recent barrages, Russia would send its old Kh-55 cruise missiles without payloads, to trip up Ukraine’s air defenses.

    An analysis by the Jamestown Foundation said that some Soviet missiles that Russia’s been using are no longer reproducible, while others are made at a very low rate.

    Russian forces also repurposed anti-ship missiles like the Onyx and anti-air missiles like the S-300 to strike at ground targets, suggesting they’re forced to use what they’ve got.

    A few open source investigations at least partly support the claim that lately, Russia’s been using missiles that were manufactured earlier this year, which may indicate stockpile issues.

    A team from Conflict Armament Research, a U.K. investigative organization that tracks weapon supplies, analyzed pieces from a Nov. 23 attack — three missiles were Kh-101s whose serial numbers show they were produced just months before the attack. CAR suggested that this may be symptomatic of stockpile challenges for assets like cruise missiles but Russia is still able to produce them.

    The Long War Journal, a U.S. publication reporting on and analyzing wars, examined the photographed serial numbers from 16 downed Kh-101s, six of which are thought to have been made in 2022. According to its analysis of limited data, the Long War Journal’s most conservative estimate is that Russia can produce one Kh-101 missile every four days.

    Jamestown estimated that Russia’s maximum annual production capacity is not likely to be higher than 225 missiles in total, which includes Onyx, Kalibr, Kh-101, 9M729 and Kh-59 cruise missiles and Iskander-M ballistic missiles.

    A June article from the Center for European Policy Analysis stated that Russia’s been running its missile factories in overtime. This includes the Novator plant, which made up to 120 Kalibrs and several dozen Iskanders per year before the full-scale invasion, according to CEPA. There is also the Votkinsk plant, which makes Iskander, Yar and Bulava missiles, whose production grew from 50 to 60 missiles per year in 2022.

    Interestingly, these appear to be more optimistic estimates than Ukraine’s, whose military intelligence said Russia makes 30 Kh-101s in a single month, along with 20 Kalibrs.

    Russia also hoped to receive ballistic missiles from Iran whose military doctrine is centralized around missiles and drones and has a production program for both.

    U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Russia’s relationship with Iran was becoming a “full-scale defense partnership,” with Russia providing advanced tech to Iran as well. Despite initially denying it, Iran supplied Russia with hundreds of Shahed-136 and Shahed-131 kamikaze drones that were used to attack Ukrainian cities.

    And yet, Israeli intelligence officials last month told Axios that Iran wants to limit the range of missiles it plans to send to Russia. Last month, Ukrainian Presidential Office adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said Iran had not yet delivered the missiles to Russia and was wavering as a result of diplomatic pressure, the threat of additional sanctions, and internal political strife.

    There is much more at the link!

    Here’s an International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) analysis from March 2023:

    https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis/2023/03/what-has-the-war-revealed-about-russias-non-strategic-missiles/

    Russia’s extensive use of short-range ballistic missiles and land-attack cruise missiles in its war against Ukraine has had several repercussions in the field of arms control. Most notably, the use of dual-capable missiles, that is, missiles capable of delivering both nuclear and conventional warheads, against tactical targets and Moscow’s decisions regarding missile proliferation both before and after February 2022 have damaged the prospects for future arms-control efforts with the United States and globally, particularly regarding missile-related technology. And these missiles have done little to help Russia achieve its declared war aims, leading some analysts to revise their views of the utility of non-strategic missiles in wartime.

    Russia has employed several types of ballistic and cruise missiles to strike Ukrainian ground targets, and Western analysts have been able to inspect the wreckage of these systems much more easily than when they were last used in Syria. This has offered insights into Russian missile design, components and capabilities, particularly with regard to design limitations, targeting systems and the use of foreign-sourced components. The missiles used include modern, dual-capable systems such as the ground-launched short-range ballistic missile Iskander-M (RS-SS-26 Stone) and the air-launched ballistic missile Kinzhal (RS-AS-24 Killjoy). It has also used legacy systems such as the Tochka-U (RS-SS-21 Scarab); various modern land-attack cruise missiles including the air-launched Kh-101 (RS-AS-23A Kodiak); older land-attack cruise missiles such as modified and de-mated versions of the Kh-55 (RS-AS-15B Kent) and possibly the Kh-555 (RS-AS-22 Kluge); the ground-launched land attack cruise-missile Iskander (RS-SSC-7 Southpaw); and the sea-launched 3M14 Kalibr (RS-SS-N-30A Sagaris) and Oniks (RS-SS-N-26 Strobile). It is not known whether Russia has used the longer-range ground-launched cruise missile 9M729 (RS-SCC-8 Screwdriver), which it may be holding in reserve for striking US or NATO targets rather than targets in Ukraine. Separately, Russia announced a deployment of the Tsirkon (RS-SS-N-33) missile in January 2023. Russia has stated that the Tsirkon is intended to strike ‘decision-making centers’ within minutes, even those in Washington that are guarded by ‘advanced air defence and missile defence systems’.

    The Russian armed forces often have made poor use of their missiles in the war due at least in part to inadequate planning; limited intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance; and a lack of dynamic targeting. These failures have caused reputational damage to Russia’s missile programme – which had recovered remarkably from the design and testing failures of the 1990s and 2000s – and to its doctrine. It has also become clear that Moscow’s apparent reliance on foreign components for some of its modern missile capabilities, in the context of comprehensive sanctions, may hamper its ability to reconstitute its missile force and possibly to fulfill future military sales to external customers. Norwegian intelligence has assessed that, as a result, Russia will limit further use of its modern missiles against Ukraine to reserve them for a potential war with NATO and for other deterrence missions.

    More at the link.

  9. 9.

    Gin & Tonic

    That Isobel Yeung/VICE interview with war criminal Lvova-Belova is spending another well-deserved day under the bus. Which somehow reminds me, Adam, you said you had that withheld Amnesty report – I’ve been off-line a lot, did I miss you posting it?

  11. 11.

    Alison Rose

    Yeah, from my uninformed perspective, I doubt russia has much in the way of tactics as to what they aim at beyond “making life as hellish as possible” for Ukrainians. Here we are over 14 months into this full-scale war, and these dipshits still haven’t learned that nothing they do will break Ukraine’s resolve.

    This short video made me a little sniffly:

    Six-year-old Sasha Pascal from Zatoka in Odesa, who lost her leg due to a missile fire last May, received a new bionic prosthesis and is returning to gymnastics.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  13. 13.

    trollhattan

    Bet the weapons nerds and intelligence folks love pawing over the surviving bits, the intercepted missiles and the duds, examining the parts and perhaps intact samples. Surely that helps defending against them, in the long run?

    As to 15 missiles fired from 11 bombers, I’ll speculate it’s to spread out the area from which they’re launched so they can do it simultaneously and also have them entering Ukraine from many directions, traveling different paths.

    I’ll also guess those bombers sortie daily, feigning strikes that never come just to test and stress the defenses.

  15. 15.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Jay: Yeah, I know. Shame in a way, though, as they did very good reporting back in 2014-15.

  16. 16.

    Redshift

    It is unfortunately, then appropriate to indicate that the air defense is active over Kyiv

    Yeah, I installed the air raid alert app that Mark Hamill did the English-language messages for. Alert active for Kyiv since 17:14 EDT.

    I’m still not sure if I feel better or worse knowing when there’s an air raid alert for people I care about.I guess better, since they aren’t as frequent for Kyiv as some other places.

  18. 18.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: Thanks for the reply! Good point about trying to force Ukraine to reposition AD assets away from where they could influence air superiority at the front.

    Combined w/ the estimates of Russia burning through its ballistic/cruise missile stockpile, may be it can no longer meaningfully degrade Ukrainian power/transportation infrastructure & industrial capacity.

  20. 20.

    Another Scott

    @Anonymous At Work: My recollection is that Qevin was one of those saying “no blank check” for Ukraine.  (Of course, there is no “blank check” so there’s not a problem, amirite??!  (sigh))  So, he can say he’s for giving them support, but can also say that we “obviously” have to cut something else, like, say student loan debt relief or the Inflation Reduction Act to pay for it.

    It’s nothing new, and it’s not a change AFAICS.  He wants to use anything and everything as leverage against Biden and the rest of the Democrats.

    Eyes on the prizes.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  21. 21.

    Jay

    @Gin & Tonic:

    Vice was good back then and later at covering North American Nazi’s, but they had people like Goat Gatsby, Gwyn Snider and Ken Kliperstein, whom of course, they laid off.

  24. 24.

    Carlo Graziani

    It’s very interesting that there have been no confirmed uses by the UAF of the new GLSDB capability, just short of comparable in accuracy and range and destructiveness to an SRBM. They must have a reasonable, possibly smallish stock by now. It wouldn’t be surprising if they were employed for deep interdiction strikes at the very outset of the offensive, to gain operational surprise over the Russians.

  25. 25.

    pat

    I haven’t had time to read much tonight, but I have been thinking about this russian attack on civilians, civilian infrastructure, and transporting Ukrainians into russia, and it seems they are really trying to eliminate Ukrainians and the Ukrainian state altogether. Genocide on an entire country. Or am I just a bit late to figure this out.

  27. 27.

    Dirk Reinecke

    People do not learn from history. Strategic bombing to devastate morale has never worked, and it was tried. If thousands to tens of thousands of casualties didn’t work in WW II why on earth would Putin think his small campaign would achieve anything.

    With regards to the nuclear weapons used on Japan, I think that only worked because Hirohitho didn’t want to have to hide in a bunker everytime there was a lone B-29 in the sky.

  28. 28.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Dirk Reinecke: NATO bombing of Serbia, Kosovo War, 1999.

    It depends on many factors, including power differentials, allies, and realistic appreciation of war ends, whether a bombing campaign makes sense. There is no general rule.

    But in the present case, there is no realistic appreciation of the effect of the Russian bombing campaign that can conclude that it is a worthwhile strategic endeavor. Adam’s tactical/operational explanation above (divert AA resources from the front) is an acceptable rationale, but it wouldn’t really pass a sane cost-benefit analysis in a military establishment that was not despairing over its prospects of victory.

    That’s the key here: a country prosecuting an offensive war of choice requires some kind of Theory of Victory. The Russians have gone through and discarded several in this war already. The bombing campaign was a consequence of the Winter 2022/2023 Theory of Victory, which held that the Ukrainian nation, forced to freeze in the dark in the middle of Winter would come to a settlement on Russian terms.

    But the winter was a warm one, and the Ukrainians MacGyvered incredible resilience into their infrastructure, so that they could eventually restore power to stricken municipalities within a day or so. The Theory failed, and remains only as an exercise in spite and military-bureacratic inertia. By my count, it is at least one, and maybe two Theories out of date. As you note, it serves no real military purpose.

    But then, the Russians have not shown themselves adept at reasoned strategic calculation in this war. And they really are desperate.

  29. 29.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Carlo Graziani:

    the Ukrainians MacGyvered incredible resilience into their infrastructure

    It goes without saying that I’m glad the following never came to pass, but: I’ve often read that if you don’t truly disable your adversary completely,  you’re just *teaching* them how to do better the next time.  And so, in these Russian airstrikes against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, I often wondered why they even bothered, if they weren’t going to, y’know, launch waves night-after-night to ensure that Ukraine couldn’t actually repair that infrastructure (and hence, actually make civilians suffer to the point of dying in droves).  They just taught the Ukrainians (and their Western supporters) how to resist better.

    It’s all madness, and as you say, it seems like Putin has no theory of victory other than complete genocide.  He must know that if even if Ukraine’s armed forces finally fell down, it would only cause the CEE states to enter the conflict.  Poland said as much.

  30. 30.

    JAFD

    @trollhattan:

     Me own opinion (Worth exactly what you paid for it) is that the new (Russian) Qualifications for their Combat Veteran Pilot Medal include “have launched or dropped ordnance against the enemy”, and this was the occasion for the Desk Fliers Squadron to activate (or maybe they get their paychecks on the first of the month ?)
    Anyway, thanks again, Mr. Silverman, for all your efforts.

  31. 31.

    Geminid

    President Zelensky arrived in Finland several hours ago, and will attend a summit of Nordic leaders. Also slated to participate are Finnish President Niinisto, and Prime Ministers Kristersson of Sweden, Gahr Store of Norway, Fredericksen of Denmark, and Jakobsdottir of Iceland.

  32. 32.

    TooTallTom

    @Adam L Silverman: ​
     
    Adam,
    Thank you SO much for your work. I really appreciate your insights. Interesting tweet in your post from Ben Hodges about Crimea being the key. I don’t understand why he would say that. Is Crimea more important in this war than any other region? I thought that the more important task would be to disrupt Lines of Supply, such as railroad links. Do you agree with Ben’s assessment?

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