Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Conservatism: there are people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

I have other things to bitch about but those will have to wait.

When I was faster i was always behind.

If you tweet it in all caps, that makes it true!

Michigan is a great lesson for Dems everywhere: when you have power…use it!

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

You cannot love your country only when you win.

At some point, the ability to learn is a factor of character, not IQ.

Text STOP to opt out of updates on war plans.

This must be what justice looks like, not vengeful, just peaceful exuberance.

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

Sometimes the world just tells you your cat is here.

Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!

People identifying as christian while ignoring christ and his teachings is a strange thing indeed.

Republican speaker of the house Mike Johnson is the bland and smiling face of evil.

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. keep building.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

Their boy Ron is an empty plastic cup that will never know pudding.

Nothing says ‘pro-life’ like letting children go hungry.

They want us to be overwhelmed and exhausted. Focus. Resist. Oppose.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

Giving in to doom is how we fail to fight for ourselves & one another.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 434: There’s Supposed To Be an Earth Shattering Kaboom!

War for Ukraine Day 434: There’s Supposed To Be an Earth Shattering Kaboom!

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It was a very long day. So I’m going to cover the big events plus the basics.

We all opened the day with the news that the Russians were claiming that the Ukrainians attempted a long distance drone strike on the Kremlin and that this was an attempt to assassinate Putin. Let’s do a quick unpacking here:

  1. Putin wasn’t at the Kremlin.
  2. Putin’s apartments at the Kremlin are heavily fortified and aren’t going to be damaged by a long distance drone.
  3. The Kremlin sat on this for 12 hours!
  4. There is no way that given all the air defense that Russia has put up in Moscow, especially at the Kremlin and on the MOD building, that these drones came all the way in from Ukraine and could only be intercepted while framed perfectly against one of the domes with a flag flying in the air, the moon squarely in the shot, and while a camera just happened to be aimed perfectly to catch it all.

So where does that leave us? With two possibilities. The first is that this really is a long range Ukrainian drone strike. As The Economist‘s Shashank Joshi has remarked, The Economist‘s Ollie Carrol has reported that Ukraine defense sector insider’s have indicated they are developing long range drones:

As such, this would be a performative first attempt intended to signal to Putin, the siloviki, the oligarchs, Muscovites, and other Russians that Ukraine can, if it so chooses, strike inside Russia. This does not preclude Russia tracking the inbound drones and intercepting them for dramatic footage that could be used as agitprop in Russia’s information warfare campaign.

The second possibility is that the Russian’s staged it themselves and the interception was done for dramatic effect so the footage could be used as agitprop in Russia’s information warfare campaign.

The Ukrainians are, of course, denying the strike:

The reality is that it does not matter whether this was a Ukrainian strike or a staged Russian strike. Russia will use the footage as agitprop to play the victim. They’ve already started doing so. It doesn’t matter that they’ve repeatedly tried to assassinate President Zelenskyy, that they hit more civilian targets yesterday and again today and will hit more tonight/early this morning, the hypocrisy and inconsistency doesn’t matter. Russia, Russians, and the Ruskiy Mir are always the victims, always being picked on and held down. Their unique civilizational greatness, specialness, and genius are never appreciated. As a result, they must undertake a genocide in Ukraine, scarf up parts of Georgia, subvert the Sahel, prolong the Syrian Civil War, interfere in US, British, and EU member state politics, run a global wetworks program, and dominate their neighbors. Anyone who objects is an anti-Russian bigot.

The Economist’s Shashank Joshi brings us this important public service announcement:

There is no daily address posted on either the President of Ukraine’s website or in the videos section of their YouTube page. This is most likely because President Zelenskyy was in Helsinki today at a summit. After  the jump are two different videos, one 19 minutes and change and the other 32 minutes, with English subtitles and a sign language interpreter.

Here is the English transcript of President Zelenskyy’s full answer about the drone strike on the Kremlin:

Volodymyr Zelenskyy: We are attacking neither Putin nor Moscow – we are defending our villages and cities

3 May 2023 – 21:29

Ukraine does not attack Russia or its President, but defends its independence and territorial integrity. This was stated by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a conversation with media representatives following the Nordic-Ukrainian Summit in Helsinki.

Answering a journalist’s question about the recent UAV flight over the Kremlin in Moscow, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “We are attacking neither Putin nor Moscow. We are fighting on our own territory, defending our villages and cities.”

The Head of State added that Ukraine is experiencing a shortage of weapons to ensure its defense, so the Ukrainian army does not use them anywhere else but on the battlefield.

“We cannot use anything anywhere. That is why we did not attack Putin. We will leave it to the tribunal,” he stated.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed his belief that the Russian leader accuses Ukraine of this alleged attack and attempted assassination because Russia has no victories on the battlefield in the war it has unleashed in Ukraine. Thus, the Russian leader uses such statements to justify his continued aggression.

“He can no longer motivate his society and just send the military to their deaths. He can no longer motivate his state. He has no victories on the battlefield. The second army of the world has lost. They are unable to occupy Ukraine. They were repulsed by us. Now he needs to somehow motivate these people to move forward,” the Head of State said.

“They have lost this war – they have lost as a state, they have lost historically… This is what is happening. And now he needs to do something drastic – assassination attempts, drones, some geese that bombed them… That is, they will come up with some steps every day,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy added.

At the same time, the President noted that instead of making up new provocations, the Russian authorities could simply withdraw their troops from Ukrainian territory and thus overcome the difficult situation.

“You don’t have to intimidate anyone, you don’t have to use weapons – you have to leave our territory. Absolutely everyone, even non-NATO countries or countries outside the European Union on different continents, recognizes the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Therefore, leaving our territory would be a solution. It is much easier than using various information or any other manipulations,” the Head of State emphasized.

Asked whether Russia’s statements about the alleged attack by Ukrainian drones could affect the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which expires in May, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he does not see Russia’s interest in extending it, however other parties should be interested.

“We are not looking for Russia’s interest, we are looking for the fulfillment of the agreement with our partners. Regarding the grain initiative, we have a clear agreement with António Guterres, the UN Secretary-General, and with President of Türkiye Erdoğan. Our agreements continue. We are planning to continue our initiative. They, for their part, have a conversation with the Russian side, and they have to agree with them on the continuation of this corridor, which is so needed by other countries of the world. Just as by many of us,” the President of Ukraine summarized.

As I was saying regarding Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets:

Kherson:

The Guardian also has reporting from Kherson on the fight along the banks of the Dnipro River. Here are some excerpts:

From her fifth-floor balcony in Kherson, Alina Spyrydonova can see the bank of the Dnipro River occupied by Russian forces.

She lives in one of the southern Ukrainian city’s more dangerous locations, her windows broken earlier this year by Russian shelling.

It is worst at night. Spyrydonova, 27, who works as a secretary at Kherson’s shuttered theatre, says: “We can hear what’s happening on the river very clearly. It’s most nights. Shelling and machine gunfire.” Sometimes she can hear the fighting on the river.

What is audible from Spyrydonova’s flat is the shadowy war being fought in the Dnipro delta, largely unreported, but potentially defining of the wider conflict.

In recent days, the violence in Kherson has worsened still as the city was ordered placed under a strict new curfew from Friday, amid mounting speculation of where Ukraine’s much-vaunted spring offensive may strike.

From the streets close to the waterfront the Dnipro could be seen gleaming between waterfront buildings, a broad sweep of water separating the combatants into two areas of control.

On the west side is Kherson city, liberated from Russian occupation on 11 November last year. On the facing bank are the Russian troops who retreated across the river, only to take up positions there. They have since been shelling Kherson each day from those positions.

The riverbanks are within range of snipers too. Last week, an Ukrainian journalist was killed and an Italian colleague wounded by Russian fire after they ventured too close to the city’s Antonivskiy Bridge.

Least accessible of the frontlines, details of the war on the river have emerged from brief snippets from Ukrainian army press officers and Russian military bloggers, as well as material posted on social media channels and accounts supplied by local residents.

What is clear is that fighting for the Dnipro delta’s islands, marshes and inlets has been very different from the gruelling battles on the eastern front. Here, combatants have moved in ribs (rigid inflatable boats)with powerful engines.

In this lethal game of cat and mouse, both sides frequently carry out raids from the boats, which are visible to drones and vulnerable to gunfire, artillery and mines.

What the fighting on the Dnipro portends is also opaque, despite media attention after claims Ukrainian forces have established positions on the far bank seen by some as a sign the Kherson area could be the focus of Ukrainian efforts.

Dmytro Pletenhuk, a military spokesperson in the city, says: “The Russians have every kind of weapon [on the east bank]. They have rocket systems, mortars and artillery.

“They shell Kherson and the small villages on this side of the river every day and there are two or three air raids [by jets] most days. The river is a natural barrier. It’s what has been keeping the status quo between the two sides.”

It is violent status quo, however. During the Guardian’s visit intermittent shelling could be heard around Kherson and the dark shape of a banking fighter jet appeared at one point outside the city. Three civilians were killed in a Russian airstrike a little further down the river.

And despite Pletenhuk’s comments, the fighting has not been entirely static in recent weeks.

On Velykyi Potomkin, the biggest island, which sits opposite Kherson’s Ostriv or Island district, Ukrainian troops have been slowly pushing forward, their progress tracked by geolocation.

Once a pleasant spot where people from the city would visit their dachas or go to picnic, the island splits the river into two smaller branches to the immediate west of Kherson, making it a strategically important stepping stone. These days it is a battlefield.

The smaller islands – some of which are no more than specks on the river – matter because they can be used as bases for firing mortars on the city. Every scrap of land is bitterly contested.

What video exists of the fighting depicts a grim struggle. In one, a night-time firefight on the water unspools in flashes of gunfire punctuated by alarmed shouting.

In a second, a Russian soldier is thrown from his boat as it comes under fire. His comrades speed away, abandoning him in the water to try to claw his way towards the bank.

In another, perhaps most gruesome, video, a small boat is seen hovering by the reeds before being struck by an explosion.

Even when the hard won raids by the Ukrainians succeed those trying to hold the ground know they can be targeted with strikes from Russian jets dropping guided bombs whose detonations can appear as big as the islands themselves.

In March, Natalia Humeniuk, the chief spokesperson for the Ukrainian military in the south, described one such battle that lasted three days as Russian forces tried to take an island.

“The enemy equipped [boats] with outboard motors and machine guns, and strengthened sides, and tried to reach the islands. They were unsuccessful, because the boats and nearly 20 of their people were eliminated in three days [of fighting],” she said.

Much, much more at the link!

Kyiv

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Bakhmut:

A message from Captain HIMARS!

ETA at 7:00 PM EDT: Obligatory!

Taman, Russia:

Bryansk, Russia:

 

Here’s the newly announced next military aid package:

And the EU seems to have found a way to take some collective action:

That’s enough for tonight!

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos, so here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Army Cats & Dogs Twitter feed:

Open thread!

 

Reader Interactions

58Comments

  1. 1.

    craigie

    The reality is that it does not matter whether this was a Ukrainian strike or a staged Russian strike. Russia will use the footage as agitprop to play the victim. They’ve already started doing so. It doesn’t matter that they’ve repeatedly tried to assassinate President Zelenskyy, that they hit more civilian targets yesterday and again tonight and will hit more tonight/early this morning, the hypocrisy and inconsistency doesn’t matter. Russia, Russians, and the Ruskiy Mir are always the victims, always being picked on and held down. Their unique civilizational greatness, specialness, and genius are never appreciated. As a result, they must undertake a genocide in Ukraine, scarf up parts of Georgia, subvert the Sahel, prolong the Syrian Civil War, interfere in US, British, and EU member state politics, run a global wetworks program, and dominate their neighbors. Anyone who objects is an anti-Russian bigot.

    This is also your modern GOP, in all but the details.

  3. 3.

    trollhattan

    Have seen bigger ka-boomskis from teens who got into their Fun Uncle’s fireworks stash, than those to nicely filmed Kremlin pops.

    German teens do even better.

  5. 5.

    Parfigliano

    Dont think for a second it was Ukraine.  Do wish someone anyone would kill Trumps Vladdy Daddy.  What a ham handed pathetic attempt at propaganda.

  7. 7.

    Anonymous At Work

    Captain HIMARS and the internet psyops that UA does are great.  Just me or did he tell RU soldiers to tell UA where Wagner mercs were sleeping?

  9. 9.

    Jay

    @Anonymous At Work:

    yup, and where arty, tanks, command posts, ammo dumps etc,, were,…

    basically, if HIMARs is too busy blowing those things up, they won’t be blowing up raw vatnick meat,……

  11. 11.

    Alison Rose

    When I saw the notifications about the drone strike and russia’s claim that it was Ukraine trying to take putin out, my immediate thought was “oh bull fucking shit”. I realize it’s not totally out of the realm of possibility, but it also feels like something they’re doing to try to, as Adam says, play the victim (how can they claim to be the second army of the world or whatever and also a little teeny baby that big scary Ukraine is being so mean to?????), and also maybe some weird response to the hopefully-impending counteroffensive and to sway countries from sending weapons by making them think that Ukraine is going too far or whatever.

    Mendacity, thy name is russia. Fuckers.

    Slate has a good interview with Tim Mak about his work at NPR and how he’s planning to continue it on his own. (It seems to be paywalled so that’s the 12-foot ladder link which should allow you to read it.)

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  12. 12.

    japa21

    The last video. Thought I saw some babies there. But, even though I don’t understand the words being spoken, it is impossible to miss the actual caring in the soldier’s voice. The compassion is so obvious.
    When I was a kid, a phrase often thrown out by someone being threatened with a beating was , “You and what army?” Putin can threaten, but short of actually using nukes, that rejoinder is still apt.

  13. 13.

    misterpuff

    Can you say “Reichstag Fire”?

    I know you can.

    Except they already started the war….and Puty already has the reins.

    Whiney Ass Titty Babies.

  14. 14.

    Urza

    If those pets are chipped, or the pets are walking to their owners periodically, wouldn’t that be a problem making it easy to locate them?  Maybe they’re only allowed away from the front lines.

  15. 15.

    Miss Bianca

    @Alison Rose: As someone else noted above, the same endless grievance, aggression, and victim whinging that Adam outlined so comprehensively about the Russian psyche also applies in every nauseous detail to your modern Republican.

  16. 16.

    Fair Economist

    Wouldn’t have been shocked if it were Ukranian, but agree that the perfecto pictures and lack of earlier air defense activity is a very strong indication of a false flag. It’s a pretty weak false flag, though – after *all* the Russians have done to the Ukranians, who is going to care about a couple of counterstrikes anyway? More evidence of the decay of Russian espionage, IMO.

    BTW, just another round of thanks for the quantity and quality of info you provide, Adam.

  17. 17.

    Mathguy

     

    @craigie: FTFY:

    Russia, Russians, and the Ruskiy Mir Republicans are always the victims, always being picked on and held down. Their unique civilizational greatness, specialness, and genius are never appreciated.

  18. 18.

    cain

    Russia, Russians, and the Ruskiy Mir are always the victims, always being picked on and held down.

    Where have I seen this attitude before? 🤔🤔🤔

  19. 19.

    Jay

    The Kremlin didn’t bomb itself deliberately. They were practicing for the Victory Day drone contest. They couldn’t make it to Red Square before the stolen washing machine microchip fried itself.It’s true.The Squirrel told me. pic.twitter.com/R7sAZ4u3Ph— Patriot with attitude problem (@ScottBu98883067) May 3, 2023

    I addedthe edits

  21. 21.

    Jinchi

    I never understand these “accusations” that Ukraine tried to assassinate Putin. What exactly is the objection here? You started a war and murdered tens of thousands of people. Of course they’d love to assassinate you! Putin has to be the most undeniably legitimate target of the war.
    That said, “drone hits a large building” is a long step away from evidence of an assassination attempt. Gotta hope this serves as inspiration to someone in a better position to act on it.​

  22. 22.

    Jay

    The Moscow Times: Russian state propaganda has been instructed to prepare the population for defeat in Ukraine's counteroffensive.The Kremlin has issued new instructions to propagandists ahead of Ukraine's counterattack. According to the instructions, the state media should not…— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) May 2, 2023

  24. 24.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Jay: Sushko is the last screen grab in Joshi’s post about Twitter grifters who have popped up during the war.

  25. 25.

    Jay

    World's first false flag operation actually involving a flag 🚩💥👏— Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 (@GLandsbergis) May 3, 2023

  27. 27.

    Jay

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Yeah, it’s a copy of a bunch of other peoples posts NoelReports, A3OB South, etc.

    Sadly it’s common on twitter for multiple accounts to use the same footage. Sadly the grifters use it to build “brand”, then ask for money.

  28. 28.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Jay: Unfortunately. You’d be amazed at the stuff I decide I’m not going to include not because I don’t know whose posting it but because I’m not sure the content can be validated.

  30. 30.

    The Pale Scot

    “Unique civilization”

    If only they would take to red pill.

    RU is like the British Navy in the 19th- early 20th century. Pissed off that Churchill was instituting reforms they yelled that he was destroying the navy’s great tradition, to which he replied “what traditions, sodomy, alcoholism and the lash?”

  31. 31.

    Jay

    @Adam L Silverman:

    I’m not amazed, or even surprised.

    A bunch of the vids we see are repeated over dozens of sites, basically “free sharing” to boost the narrative. Some of the posters put in the work to geolocate the vids, but that’s tricky in itself, (OPSEC), and almost all of the vids are not watermarked, (free share) and stripped of metadata, (OPSEC)

    When I see it on an account I trust, I’ll post it, not always from the same site, because between Ukrainian accounts and NAFO accounts, I am probably clocking through over 120 accounts a day, quite often skimming, and every day, I find something new, from Lazerpig to Secret Squirrel.

    Sometimes, I can’t easily post the trusted twit, because it’s hashtag central.

  34. 34.

    Jay

    In Lviv, you try to brush off some sand from your phone screen and realise the sand comes from the mass graves in the pine forest of Izium where the occupying Russian army buried your fellow Ukrainians, civilians and POWs, in 450 graves. On my phone, on my teeth, under my skin. pic.twitter.com/BBaziLQr2c— Dr Sasha Dovzhyk (@sasha_weirdsley) May 3, 2023

  36. 36.

    YY_Sima Qian

    If the Ukrainians have drones that can put the Kremlin at risk, it can place a lot of other targets in Russia at risk, targets that will have immediate impact on the Russia war effort, & far less well defended to boot.

    If it is Russian resistance groups who took a shot at the Kremlin using a short ranged drone, then they are getting more ambitious & we can expect more facilities associated w/ the Russian war effort to have mysterious fires & explosions. Same applies if it was Ukrainian sabotage teams.

    If it was a Russian false flag operation, then having a “hostile” drone putting the Kremlin at risk, through all of the layered AD network around Moscow, is still an embarrassment message to communicate.

  38. 38.

    Jay

    Remember how Nemtsov’s murder right in front of the Kremlin was never somehow caught on camera?

    All the camera’s around the Kremlin, are controlled by the Kremlin. 3 perfect shots, better quality than ususal, from 3 perfect angles. 2 people in anti-flash firesuits climbing the dome just before the drone strike. VDV Firetrucks already in place on the street.

    If Russia is speaking,……. they are lying.

    If Russia is silent,…. they are thinking of their next lie.

  39. 39.

    Another Scott

    @YY_Sima Qian: TheDrive has a collection of tweets and so forth on this and earlier drone attacks in russia.  It seems to fit something like a pattern.

    Whether it originated in Ukraine, I have no idea.  But given the roundabout way the truck went to blow up the Kerch Strait Bridge, I wouldn’t discount Ukraine having flying beasties in russia, myself (though of course I have no inside information).

    Caveat emptor, of course.

    FWIW.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  40. 40.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: Yeah, there’s something not right with this story, no matter how it’s framed.

    I agree that the Ukrainians developing such a capability and then wasting it on a target both utterly symbolic and impenetrably defended is ridiculous. They have much more productive and more easily-destroyed targets available.(*)

    But for the Russians to conspire to feign this sort of attack just for the sake of propaganda is about as senseless. The morale gain (to the extent that there is one) is far outweighed by the embarrassing questions concerning their AD competence.

    One alternative explanation could be “right hand/left hand”, as in a faction inside the Russian security state did this to embarrass someone, or to influence some policy argument—say, hawks who want to force employment of NBC assets. Another, less likely explanation could be that the Kremlin itself wants to set the stage for a massive escalation. In either case, it seems much more likely to me that they would bomb and kill some Russian civilians instead.

    So shrug-emoji. I suppose we watch this space, and see if anything else happens that seems to connect.

     

    (*) In an odd way it reminds me of J.R. Oppenheimer’s response to and idiot member of Congress who was questioning him about his resistance to employing Hydrogen bombs in warfare, and claiming that it was due to the fact that unlike the fission bomb, he had had no role in developing thermonuclear weapons. To make his point about JRO’s bias he asked “Would you have approved dropping an H-bomb on Hiroshima?”

    Oppenheimer: That would have made no sense at all!

    Congressman: Why on Earth not?

    Oppenheimer: The target is too small!

  43. 43.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Another Scott: Yes, that’s why I also mentioned the possibility of Ukrainian sabotage teams.

    Generally, I don’t think warring states target each other’s top leaderships. That could make eventual war resolution much messier & more difficult. Of course, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is different, since its aim is total subjugation & eventual elimination of the latter as a distinct entity. Still, I am not sure the Ukrainian war effort is helped by killing Putin, since none of the foreseeable potential successors are amenable to ending the invasion & reverting to even Feb. 2022 Lines of Actual Control. It may cause a period of confusions as various Russian interests jockey & battle to fill the vacuum, it will also make it much more likely that conflict w/ Russia will never end, even if Ukraine took advantage and beat the Russians back to Donbass & Crimea. Russia will simply nurse its wounds & seek to return later.

    Much better Putin be overthrown by Russian hands, who then can disavow some of Putin’s policies & actions if they so choose.

    If it were Ukrainian sabotage teams, it could essentially be a trolling effort not intended to actually succeed, but as a reminder to the Kremlin leaders waging this war that they will not be free from the consequences of what they have wrought.

  46. 46.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Armadillo: The problem with Ruser’s thesis is that …. it makes the *Ukrainians* look inept and weak as hell.  They sent a couple of drones with completely ineffectual explosives against The Kremlin?  I mean, that’s just weak shit.  And between the two parties, I know which has appeared more inept, more prone to stupidity, and in many ways, really weak.  And it ain’t UA.

    You can have reasonable theories that this was a false flag, I disagree for the simple fact that it makes the Kremlin look inept and weak as hell. But the point is, it’s irresponsible to throw these largely baseless theories out there knowing how they’ll be consumed.
    — Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) May 4, 2023

  47. 47.

    Mallard Filmore

    @Another Scott:

     There is another possibility. Denys Davydov says in this YouTube video

    link: https://youtu.be/Eies-0t8wGk?t=704
    title: ” Update from Ukraine | Kremlin was hit by drone | Who is responsible for the Moscow attack?”

    that there is a competition with a $500.000 prize for designing and building a drone that can reach Red Square.

  48. 48.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Armadillo: Ruser’s critique is very interesting, and brings focus on the problem with maps, and with those who use maps to communicate information about war.

    ISW’s maps suck as badly as Pfarrer’s do, and for essentially the same reason. The reason has nothing to do with military expertise, but is rather deeply connected to information theory. A map is a very high information-content artifact. As such, it is only as valid as the information used to source it. But all unclassified sources of information on the war are low-bandwidth, extremely noisy channels. Constructing high-info artifacts from low-info data streams is essentially an exercise in bullshitting, because the data is consistent with wildly varying map realizations, and our age’s Twitter cartographers just pick one that suits their priors.

    Note that this is not a critique of military cartography: generally, when professional military organizations create maps and charts for their own purposes they utilize much higher-quality information, and hedge their uncertainties much more honestly. But improper definiteness is the coin of the realm among the public war cartographers, who might as well be portrait painters working from enigmatic descriptions of their models that they heard on a NYC subway PA.

  49. 49.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: Yes, not all areas colored one way or the other, even if accurately attributed, indicate the same level of control, nor do the same level of control in these different areas have the same significance.

  50. 50.

    a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio)

    @Carlo Graziani: One of the things people in professional wrestling warn newcomers about is to never, ever start believing the kayfabe—it’s all bullshit, designed to give the paying customers a thrill. Once you start believing it yourself, you move out of contact with reality.
    I think Russian leadership has made that mistake, and that’s why they are producing such bad work—they’re convinced the kayfabe is real and that everyone else believes in it as well.

  52. 52.

    Armadillo

    @Carlo Graziani: Thanks much.  I agree with the garbage-in-garbage-out critique.  Another issue was brought up by Tobias Schneider:

    If you’re new here, OSINT twitter is about 10% professional journalists and analysts (eg bellingcat); 20% dedicated and obsessive hobbyists bored in their day jobs (eg Oryx-ish); and 70% grifters and American teenagers reposting Telegram rumors (all rando “intel” accounts). /9

    https://twitter.com/tobiaschneider/status/1531204048191356928

    I don’t think that ISW or Mr. Pfarrer fall into the grifter or liar categories.  But I think they do over-reach in the conclusions they draw from the information they have available, in ways that other OSINT accounts (Oliver Alexander, DefMon3, Oryx, etc.) do not seem to.​​​​​

  53. 53.

    Armadillo

    @a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio):

    Agreed. It’s like the Russian equivalent of government by Fox-addled nutjobs.

    Chetan Murthy put it very nicely:)

    But to go into more detail, Putin’s national security advisor is making statements that the US wants to invade Russia:

    “The extinction of all forms of life in North America is inevitable” because Yellowstone will blow up, and that’s why US wants to occupy Russia, says Putin’s national-security advisor. Impressive how Patrushev’s language is full of Stalin-era phraseology.

    https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1653884826636648451

    Also recall the multiple public statements by US Government sources (prior to the invasion if I recall correctly) that Putin was not receiving accurate information upon which to make decisions.

  54. 54.

    Another Scott

    @Armadillo: I think the biggest problem is: it’s Twitter.  You’re not going to get nuance in a daily Twitter thread no matter how good the OSINT is.

    The best thing about the ISW daily update long form reports is that they have footnotes (which are sometimes garbled), so you can look at what they claim is the source.  But, that doesn’t mean they are correct.  And ISW citing the UK MOD Tweet which doesn’t cite a source and which may be based on a Telegram post by some kid in Bulgaria for all we know can end up being a never ending game of Telephone.

    The fog of war is still real. It’s foolish to think otherwise.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  55. 55.

    Chris Johnson

    Anybody who has seen Mythbusters knows what it looks like when you have a bag of gasoline and a firecracker. FWOOM, a fluff of slow orange harmless flame that can seem real big. This is not an explosive. It’s a Hollywood kaboom.

    Anybody who has seen either Mythbusters or any real war footage has seen the white shock wave of real explosive. Hell, anybody in Ukraine has seen that over and over by now.

    Starkly obvious and pathetic, not only a false flag (wouldn’t want to hurt our own building!!!) but a false kaboom.

  56. 56.

    Bill Arnold

    @Chetan Murthy:
    An anon reply in the Ruser ISW thread pushes back with these possible motivations for a Russian false flag (some mentioned in this thread). The widespread speculation is interesting to watch.

    1) Consolidation, galvanization of support
    2) “Green light” to do the same (e.g. target gov. directly), it would have caused more backlash before, but now they’re just “reciprocating”
    3) Point against giving UA long-range weapons

    What are some genuine reasons for UA to do this?
    — Space Opera 🇺🇦 (@RUSHPlotnikov) May 4, 2023

    The cinematography of the explosion behind the flag with the moon (not blocked by clouds) was either extremely lucky (reality’s scriptwriters drunk again. :-), or chosen, or both. (E.g. if chosen by Ukrainians, I tip my hat! :-)
    (Aside: an assumption of totally rational Russian leadership should not be a part of one’s priors, IMO)

  57. 57.

    Geminid

    @Bill Arnold: One striking thing about the video footage is that the flag did not seem disturbed. That makes me think the bright “explosion” I see was a pyrotechnic device of some kind that produced very little shockwave.

  58. 58.

    Bill Arnold

    @Geminid:
    Not a practitioner, but if I were asked to do that my first thought would be butane plus a dispersal/ignition charge. Maybe a separate slightly delayed ignition charge.

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