Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Tide comes in. Tide goes out. You can’t explain that.

Giving up is unforgivable.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

People are weird.

I’m more christian than these people and i’m an atheist.

You are either for trump or for democracy. Pick one.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

This really is a full service blog.

The republican caucus is covering themselves with something, and it is not glory.

I’d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if i ever tried to have some of you killed.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

Wake up. Grow up. Get in the fight.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

People identifying as christian while ignoring christ and his teachings is a strange thing indeed.

Petty moves from a petty man.

Narcissists are always shocked to discover other people have agency.

They want us to be overwhelmed and exhausted. Focus. Resist. Oppose.

Marge, god is saying you’re stupid.

“A king is only a king if we bow down.” – Rev. William Barber

Nothing says ‘pro-life’ like letting children go hungry.

If rights aren’t universal, they are privilege, not rights.

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

You are here: Home / Open Threads / Every Grifter for Himself Open Thread: The Mar-A-Lago Confidant

Every Grifter for Himself Open Thread: The Mar-A-Lago Confidant

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That’s a joke, maybe…

On Thursday, The New York Times quintuple-teamed the Mar-a-Lago document story. And very effectively, I might add. One of the things we learned is that somebody Who Knows Things has been singing a lovely aria to special counsel Jack Smith and his investigators.

The existence of an insider witness, whose identity has not been disclosed, could be a significant step in the investigation, which is being overseen by Jack Smith, the special counsel appointed by Attorney General Merrick B. Garland. The witness is said to have provided investigators with a picture of the storage room where the material had been held. Little else is known about what prosecutors might have learned from the witness or when the witness first began to provide information to the prosecutors.

… There are a whole lot of very delicious and very chewy nuggets in this latest candy box.

Prosecutors have also issued several subpoenas to Mr. Trump’s company, the Trump Organization, seeking additional surveillance footage from Mar-a-Lago, his residence and private club in Florida, people with knowledge of the matter said. While the footage could shed light on the movement of the boxes, prosecutors have questioned a number of witnesses about gaps in the footage, one of the people said.

… The investigation has expanded sufficiently that, suddenly, it includes the Saudi-financed LIV golf tour. The Bone Saw Circuit has stopped at a number of Trump properties during its inaugural season.

One of the previously unreported subpoenas to the Trump Organization sought records pertaining to Mr. Trump’s dealings with a Saudi-backed professional golf venture known as LIV Golf, which is holding tournaments at some of Mr. Trump’s gold resorts. It is unclear what bearing Mr. Trump’s relationship with LIV Golf has on the broader investigation, but it suggests that the prosecutors are examining certain elements of Mr. Trump’s family business.

It certainly suggests that. It also suggests that this new source has access to more about the operation than the surveillance footage and the Pool Shed Papers. I admit, I thought at first that the whole documents thing was a trivial pursuit of some sloppy packing. I didn’t realize that it might be a master key to the whole thing. Shoes are dropping again.

On the one hand, I don’t see Kushner (deliberately) crossing his Saudi benefactors. On the other hand, if Mohammed bin Bone Saw has decided to dump TFG as an investment no longer worth its cost, getting Kushner to act as the go-between with Justice would be a *very* signature move.

And, of course, there’s the fact that JKush is not very bright, but he thinks he’s smarter than everyone who doesn’t have a Harvard MBA and an entree to The Best Circles. A guy like that, I understand, is a gift to any prosecutor!

Reader Interactions

129Comments

  1. 1.

    japa21

    People keep saying the document case is a slam dunk and should have already had Trump indicted. (BTW, the term people includes several here.) However, things like this make me think we are still in the tip of the iceberg state with this case. And I have a pretty strong feeling that more than Trump is going to be indicted.

  2. 2.

    Mike in NC

    Oh, it would be so delicious for Kushner to rat on his imbecile father-in-law.

  4. 4.

    eclare

    @japa21:

    Same.  But there is the concern that if TFG wins, and this case comes out afterwards, that OLC memo comes into play.  The one that says you can’t indict a sitting president.

  5. 5.

    tobie

    I just looked at TPM and Josh Marshall says Yellen tipped her hand today that there’s no magic bullet on the debt ceiling. No platinum coin. No 14th Amendment solution. We going to have to make some painful cuts to service the debt. Meanwhile Dick Durbin says it’s not yet time to end blue slip blocks. Sinema and Hobbes are both complaining that the admin didn’t prepare for the end of Title 42. Chris Wray still has a job, though mass murderers make clear what they’re intending to do on social media and US’s military secrets are being shared on Discord. This kind of incompetence is not what I voted for. I thought Dems were clear-eyed about Republican malfeasance and had plans and a PR strategy. They don’t.

  6. 6.

    Manyakitty

    I bet the insider is another faceless admin person. What’s her name, Molly Michael or something?

  8. 8.

    tobie

    @Baud: Good grief. That wasn’t my point. It’s that this circumstance should have been anticipated so we don’t have to face the death of the Republic in January 2025. I hate when Dem administrations get caught flat-footed. And right now the stakes couldn’t be higher.

  10. 10.

    Ruckus

    @japa21:

    I think we might be in deeper than the tip, but I’d bet you are correct, we are likely a hell of a lot closer to the start than the end.

    @Mike in NC:

    Kushner may not be the sharpest stick in the box but he likely knows which way will be better for him in the long run. And SFB has maybe a 1% concept of what’s better for him, long or short run. His thinking that he’s smarter than a box of rocks is likely to get him into a tad of trouble. But then hasn’t it always?

  11. 11.

    Roger Moore

    @japa21:

    I think people are mostly showing their impatience.  They say the case is a slam dunk because they want it to be a slam dunk, not because the publicly disclosed evidence makes it a slam dunk.  Some of that impatience is understandable, because there’s a political/electoral time frame that needs to be taken into account.  The best, most complete evidence won’t do any good if Trump gets elected and uses his power over the DOJ to shut it down.

  12. 12.

    Baud

    @tobie:

    You have given me no information about the Dems being flat footed. All you’ve done is say that they’re not acting the way you want.

  13. 13.

    Central Planning

    @tobie: Then go and vote for a fucking republican. Come back and let us know how that works out.

  14. 14.

    tobie

    @Baud: Yellen said there’s no 14th Amendment solution to the debt ceiling. I hope we don’t default but I don’t see how we can avoid it right now. Republicans are willing to wreck the economy. They know they won’t be blamed. Heck, they’re viewing this as their ticket back to power.

  15. 15.

    Baud

    @tobie:

    They know they won’t be blamed.

     
    I’ll blame them. The fact that you are insecure about other voters does not make it the Dems fault.

    It’s Congress job to raise the debt ceiling cleanly, and the Republicans won’t do it. If Biden finds some work around good for him, but it’s not his responsibility to come up with one weird trick.

  16. 16.

    tobie

    @Central Planning: Go read the TPM article and then come back. The administration is scrambling right now. They thought GOP would never agree on a debt default bill. Well, they did. It’s an awful bill but the admin hasn’t found a way to gain the upper hand.

  17. 17.

    Baud

    @tobie:

    So you’re afraid because of the media.  Just like they want.

    Hopefully Gen Z is made of sterner stuff.

  18. 18.

    tobie

    @Baud: Please point me to evidence that American voters understand what the debt limit is all about and realize that it’s the Republican Congress taking the US economy hostage. I’d love to see that.

  22. 22.

    tobie

    @Baud: I was actually going by the latest Post/ABC poll which had some pretty sobering news. I’m not into playing ostrich and pretending I didn’t see it.

  25. 25.

    Geminid

    @Roger Moore: What intrigues me is the possibility that Trump sold documents to another country. That would cast a much harsher light on this affair, and the LIV Golf connection suggests that this could be a line of inquiry for the special prosecutor.

  26. 26.

    RSA

    @Ruckus:  Kushner may not be the sharpest stick in the box but he likely knows which way will be better for him in the long run.

    If I’ve learned anything from reading crime novels, it’s “Don’t do business with people who cut up their enemies with a bone saw.” So Kushner isn’t even that smart. I wonder how stupid he might be?

  28. 28.

    tobie

    @Omnes Omnibus: Thanks but no worries. I hope I’m proven wrong and we don’t default, and if we do it’s not for long, and the consequences are limited, and no painful cuts need to be made etc etc etc.

  29. 29.

    cmorenc

    Does Jack Smith already have some sort of airtight felony case agains Trump -OTOH is he holding back from that because he knows stuff already which would make an even more serious, multi-faceted felony case against Trump, but still needs to nail down some further pieces of evidence to solidify the probability of conviction?

    Such as, that Trump not merely willfully with/moved classified docs to prevent their being taken from him, but was also selling/trading access to them with some (possibly hostile) foreign country or entity?

  30. 30.

    H.E.Wolf

    I usually check Electoral-Vote.com when I want a non-hair-on-fire read on a political situation. Here is what they said this morning:

    “Meanwhile, Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen was on ABC’s This Week with George Stephanopoulos, and all Stephanopoulos wanted to talk about was the debt ceiling. In particular, the host wanted to know if the Biden administration was considering invoking the Fourteenth Amendment in order to break the logjam. Yellen’s initial answer:

    ‘There is no way to protect our financial system in our economy, other than Congress doing its job and raising the debt ceiling and enabling us to pay our bills and we should not get to the point where we need to consider whether the President can go on issuing debt. This would be a constitutional crisis.’

    “You will notice that the word ‘no’ does not appear at any point in that answer. Stephanopoulos certainly noticed it, and kept following up with Yellen, only to get equally evasive answers like: ‘Look, I don’t I don’t want to consider emergency options. What’s important is that members of Congress recognize what their responsibility is…’ One has to presume that this is a message to Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) & Co.: ‘We’re not going to threaten you publicly, but you better believe we’ll use the Fourteenth Amendment if we have to.’ “

  32. 32.

    satby

    Peeked in. Back to Twitter I go, less gullible people, more sweet pet pics.

    And no snuff fan fic either, but that’s ’cause I have a huge block list there.

    Good luck folks.

  34. 34.

    WaterGirl

    @tobie: I think the Dems are working toward the discharge petition.  That was pretty clever, I think, putting that bill in quite some time ago, making sure it would have to go through several committees, and now it’s old enough that it can be used for a discharge petition.

    I don’t know that this level of pre-discouragement is warranted.

    Unless we are idiots, and I’m pretty sure we’re not, there’s also a communication game to be played.  And I’m pretty sure that if Josh Marshall is right, and that Janet Yellen tipped her hand, then we are sending a message to the Rs.

  35. 35.

    brantl

    @tobie: Taking Sinema’s word for anything is putting on your own dunce cap, you earned it, so wear it.

  38. 38.

    MisterForkbeard

    @tobie: That wasn’t quite the reading I got from it.

    She’s basically saying there’s going to be a government shutdown. They’re going to stop paying for a LOT of services so that they can continue to pay the principal on the debt. This is basically a threat: SS/medicare and other items are going to temporarily fail as a result of Republican hostage taking.

    She’s not ruling out other action. She’s saying she doesn’t want to publicly consider them because the priority is on getting Congress to actually raise the debt limit and therefore avoid lengthy legal battles.

    ETA: This is the quote:

    “Well… what to do if Congress fails to meet its responsibility, there is simply no good options. And the ones that you’ve listed are among the not good options,” Yellen replied.

  41. 41.

    MisterForkbeard

    @H.E.Wolf: Yes, this.

    Yellen is saying she doesn’t want to invoke the 14th amendment or make a platinum coin. She (and Biden, and generally the country) will be better off if Republicans just get off their asses and vote for a clean debt increase, and they’re not going to use other emergency measures that will get tied up in monthlong lawsuits unless it’s the best option. It currently isn’t.

  42. 42.

    Scout211

    It would be irresponsible not to speculate.  Not Jared.  But what about the Calamaris? They would be the ones that would likely have edited the tapes and moved the documents for Trump. Plus, they would know the layout of Mar-a-Lago and know everything about who, what and where at the club. To avoid criminal charges, just maybe they would turn on the boss.

    But maybe I am just fishing . . .

  44. 44.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Baud:

    If Biden finds some work around good for him, but it’s not his responsibility to come up with one weird trick.

    Yabbut if the one weird trick (or a few different one weird tricks) are out there just waiting to be used, I’d say it’s his responsibility to try any that don’t actually make things worse by trying them.

  47. 47.

    Redshift

    @H.E.Wolf: Yeah, that make a lot more sense. Yellen isn’t going to undermine the negotiations by saying “we’re not going to do any of these things,” because that would be like handing McCarthy a detonator for the bomb he’s planted. She’s not going to say they’re eager to use them, because that gives him no incentive to keep negotiating. Saying we don’t want to but we will if we have no choice communicates that he’s not going to get what he wants either way, so he’s better off getting something and saving face a tiny bit.

  49. 49.

    Geminid

    @H.E.Wolf: Some good news:

       Xochitl Torres Small will appear in front of the Senate Ag Committee on May 1

    President Biden’s nominee to be Deputy Secretary of Agriculture will appear in front of a Senate Committee this week.

    Xochitl Torres Small, the current undersecretary for rural development, is scheduled to meet with the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry on May 10 at 10:00 AM.

    I’d like to watch this hearing, especially when Senator Fetterman questions the nominee. With backing from industry as well as conservation groups, Torres Small’s nomination should move through the confirmation process with little difficulty.

  50. 50.

    Redshift

    @lowtechcyclist: Krugman wrote about the various weird tricks, and he’s actually okay with any of them. He says all of them are things that exploit loopholes in the language but the end result is perfectly normal borrowing, and won’t have any harmful effects.

    He thinks the big thing against the platinum coin is that lots of people think they understand it and don’t (like certain editorial boards opining that it would be inflationary), so he would favor one of the other options that no lay people think they understand, and that sound boring enough that they won’t bother to learn.

  51. 51.

    gwangung

    Since this is an open thread, I will mention that an acquaintance of mine was a Pulitzer Prize finalist for his play, The Far Country, a distant friend (he’ll admit to being a Facebook friend of mine) directed it and an actual friend (she won’t bring the shotgun out if I show up) acted in the production.

    This makes two years in a row that friends of mine have been Pulitzer finalists (I suppose that’s a measure of being old and on the edge of greatness). Not a bad way to open the week.

  52. 52.

    Central Planning

    @tobie: ​It’s not an order. It’s YOUR responsibility to post links for content YOU want someone else to read. “Go search for it” doesn’t fly, especially when 24 hours from now your “document” will no longer be on TPM where you say it is now.​

  55. 55.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Baud:

    Not in my view. 100% of the responsibility rests with Republicans. YMMV.

    Sure it does.  So if there’s a chance you can stop them in their tracks and save the country without giving in to them in the least, you’re going to let it go down the tubes just to prove that point?

    At that point, it does become your responsibility as well.

  56. 56.

    Renie

    You need a good story to know Americans are still decent?  A 6 year old boy had his parents and 3yr old brother killed in the Allen TX shooting.  Someone put up a GoFundMe. to raise $50,000 for him.  The amount is presently at $771,000.

    Wish it wasn’t necessary but there are good people still around.

  57. 57.

    different-church-lady

    I have put a great deal of careful consideration into this for the past few hours, and I have decided: yes, I will cook dinner.

  60. 60.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Baud:

    Not in my book.  100% means 100%.

    If two or more people murder someone, they’re both 100% responsible. 100% means 100%. For both.

  62. 62.

    Baud

    @lowtechcyclist:

    So you see Biden and the GOP in murderous cahoots.  I don’t. I see Biden and the USA as the potential victims of the GOP.  And we potential victims have stand together.

  63. 63.

    Jackie

    @Geminid: Selling TS documents to the Saudis scares the crap out of me, and makes me livid with anger! If Jack Smith finds concrete evidence of TFG directly involved in that, the book needs to be thrown at him ASAP.

  68. 68.

    Roger Moore

    @lowtechcyclist:

    The big problem is that nobody can be sure if any of the gimmicks people have proposed will work.  Maybe the Fed will accept a trillion dollar coin.  Maybe the Supreme Court will rule the 14th Amendment makes the debt ceiling unconstitutional.  But that’s not how the smart money is betting.  We really need the Republicans to back down and accept that once they’ve agreed to spending, they also need to agree to raise the debt limit to match that spending.

    If we plan around using one of the gimmicks to avoid default, it causes two problems.  On the one hand, it will make the Republicans even more intransigent.  They pull these stunts at least in part because they believe there will be no real consequences, and having a gimmick the executive branch can pull to nullify the debt ceiling crisis without legislative help feeds that idea.  On the other hand, it shifts the blame.  If the Republicans refuse to pass a serious debt ceiling measure when that’s seen as the only way out of the crisis, they’ll take the majority of the blame for the fallout.  If, OTOH, Biden acts as if he has the problem solved through this one weird trick and then the court says it’s nonsense, he’ll take the lion’s share of the blame for not taking the crisis seriously.

    I think we ought to explore all our options.  Biden should have a backup plan for what to do if we can’t get a debt ceiling increase passed in time.  But that needs to be the back up plan to stave off disaster, not the main plan, and we need to treat it like the emergency backup.

  72. 72.

    Burnspbesq

    @tobie:

    Remind me again where Yellen got her impeccable credentials as a Con Law scholar. I value her opinion about as much as I value yours.

  73. 73.

    gwangung

    @Baud: I quite enjoy the reflected glory.

    Also, the field is small enough that if somebody gets an award like that, chances are that we were already friends (I think I can count three finalists as acquaintances).

  74. 74.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Baud:

    So you see Biden and the GOP in murderous cahoots.  I don’t. I see Biden and the USA as the potential victims of the GOP.  And we potential victims have stand together.

    Look, if Bob starts my house on fire, and Carl is just sitting there with a fire extinguisher, twiddling his thumbs, you’re damn right that Bob’s 100% responsible if my house burns down.  But I’d still spit at Carl every time I saw him after that.

  75. 75.

    Anne Laurie

    @NotMax: Wait until someone informs MBS that Kushner is Jewish.

    As if MBS’s noble family doesn’t have a long history of using Jews as catspaws for business deals with the infidels.  I mean, dealing directly with grubby, sweaty ‘Christian’ businessmen — eeugh!

  76. 76.

    Sure Lurkalot

    @Redshift: So, your take is Yellen is gearing her public comments so that McCarthy doesn’t lose face and will come to the negotiation table. If he does so, he would likely lose his job which he got by selling his soul to the parties who crafted the draconian budget cuts.  Seems unlikely to me and we’re getting into Megyn Kelly territory where Republican intransigence can only be solved by Democrats caving.

    As Baud states, the responsibility lies with the majority party in the House. If things go south, how the media spins it and how the public perceives it matters too.

    Think I’ll give my investment advisor a call tomorrow. At 68, it’s hard to recoup losses and I have some living to do.

  77. 77.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Geminid:

    They are not going to mint that fucking coin and you may as well get used to it.

    Oh, I’ve gotten used to it.  But I find the arguments against using it to be too thin to even be called bullshit.  Maybe eau de bullshit from a spray bottle.

  79. 79.

    Jackie

    @Scout211: That would make sense and I’ve been thinking along the same lines. They know where ALL the skeletons are.

    Both Calamaris have had the pleasure of meeting with Smith’s Special Council within the past week. If they’ve flipped, TFG’s world would be in deep doodoo.

  80. 80.

    UncleEbeneezer

    I sure am glad DOJ didn’t try to to indict before they got this witness to cooperate.  These are the things that are worth waiting for when building a case and can potentially be the key to a conviction.  And this is why “Garland should’ve indicted a year ago” is just plain silly.

  81. 81.

    MisterForkbeard

    @Roger Moore: My view on this is that if Biden/Yellen mint a platinum coin, the Fed will accept it because the alternative is really bad. Just about everyone has an interest in a workaround actually functioning except for the MTGs of the world who want America to collapse/fail/own the libs.

    The real threat is that there’s a lawsuit issued and the supreme court tells Biden he has to do what congress says. But even that would take months, and in the meantime everyone’s interest will be in continuing to act like Biden has that authority and we won’t default on the debt.

    Even the Republicans would like this – it’ll let them cry about how lawless Biden is and how much he’d rather tax and spend than just sit down at the table with all the responsible, honest Republicans who are only trying to do the right thing and the rest of that horseshit.

  87. 87.

    Ken

    @different-church-lady:  Wait, are we arguing about the trolley problem?

    Oh god I hope not. Couldn’t we discuss whether Éowyn or Merry’s blow killed the Witch-King of Angmar?

    Although, I was amused a couple weeks ago when I read of one AI advocate who claimed that the next generation AI bots would find “the solution” to the trolley problem.

  88. 88.

    Jackie

    @Baud: I read that earlier. What exactly would happen if TFG or his offspring ignore it? Be held in contempt and thrown in the slammer?

    Seriously, what is the judge prepared to do?

  92. 92.

    prostratedragon

    MisterForkbeard@81: Bearing in mind what you say, I’ve been wondering whether this lawsuit filed by the National Assciation of Government Employees is not premature at best. My thought was precisely that it could gum up the works by forcing the Executive into a course that Biden does not actually intend to follow. Of course, since the article is from TheHill, I’m not altogether sure that the suit says what their reading implies. (Link to overview of NAGE)

  93. 93.

    WaterGirl

    @Jackie: Part of what takes so long is that you don’t want to bring the case until you’re sure you can win, and you also have to be sure your case is strong enough to win on appeal.  So that’s like being careful to have your ducks in a row, to the power of 3.

    Do you have enough evidence to be confident that they are guilty?

    Do you have strong enough evidence to win in a court of law?

    Do you have strong enough evidence to win on appeal?

    I’m sure they are going with belts and suspenders on everything.

  96. 96.

    cain

    @Baud: ​
     
    A good ruling considering that he apparently can’t do it in court for some reason but can do it in social media.

  97. 97.

    Kent

    @tobie:@Baud: Yellen said there’s no 14th Amendment solution to the debt ceiling. I hope we don’t default but I don’t see how we can avoid it right now. Republicans are willing to wreck the economy. They know they won’t be blamed. Heck, they’re viewing this as their ticket back to power.

    Lawrence H. Tribe, who wrote the actual book on Constitutional Law says the 14th Amendment argument is legit.  He said so in the NYT yesterday:  https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/07/opinion/debt-limit.html

  98. 98.

    Jackie

    @Baud: That’s kinda what I’m getting at: Define *serious enough*.  We know TFG and/or his spawn will test the limit.  Will the judge be firm and follow through, or do the old “I’ll give you one (or two or three) more warning(s)…?”

  99. 99.

    Baud

    @Kent:

    Rich elites are getting nervous Biden isn’t going to cave to GOP demands to hurt regular folks.

  101. 101.

    TriassicSands

    @Baud: You’re non blaming Bob 100% if you’re spitting on Carl.  Your choice.

    There is a difference between setting a fire and not putting one out.

    The setting of the fire is a crime. Punishable by time in prison.

    Failure to put it out is a moral failing, not punishable by prison, but worthy of condemnation.

    So, it is possible to blame Bob 100% for the crime, while blaming Carl for being a POS and allowing something to happen that could have been avoided. They are two separate acts.

  102. 102.

    Wapiti

    @Roger Moore: Why would the 14th Amendment ploy go to the SC? It’s between Congress and the President, and the check is that they can impeach him.

  103. 103.

    Baud

    @TriassicSands:

    True, but we’re not hating Biden for not putting out a fire. We’re hating Biden for potentially not engaging in an experimental fire suppression system that large portions of the Internet have convinced themselves is a rock solid solution but could make things worse for everyone.  In that situation, you’re letting the arsonist off the hook.

  105. 105.

    Geminid

    @WaterGirl: Another question: Are you still finding additional serious crimes?

    I’ve seen people say that the special prosecutor could indict now and make a superseding indictment later. This has been done with some of the Jan. 6 defendents. But in Trump’s case, I think it will be better if Jack Smith drops the the entire ton of bricks on Trump all at once.

  106. 106.

    Jackie

    @WaterGirl: Oh, I know. I just want it done before the ‘24 Primaries are truly underway. The GQP will scream FOUL no matter, but earlier would be MUCH better than later.

    If this was happening a year earlier, I’d be much less stressed about the election calendar.

  107. 107.

    TriassicSands

    The Republicans can force the country to the edge of default, but if there is any way that Biden can prevent it, he must act regardless of whether his action is questionable. Lincoln is considered our greatest president, but he suspended habeas corpus — an unthinkable act — because he deemed it necessary. That took courage.

    Many Americans will blame Biden no matter what he does. Biden’s responsibility is to safeguard the country and its people. The Republicans are doing everything they can to wreck this oountry. Biden forcing a constitutional crisis is still better than letting the country default. He took an oath to protect and defend the Constitution — the 14th Amendment is part of that Constitution. The stupidity of the debt ceiling is not.

    T

  108. 108.

    Steve in the ATL

    @japa21: we’ve never actually met IRL (at least as far as my wife knows!) but we have very similar backgrounds (although fewer cheese curds in mine) so we have similar perspectives on many issues

  109. 109.

    Baud

    @TriassicSands: Couldn’t disagree more.  That’s the Dick Cheney philosophy.  If there is even a 1% chance of terrorism, we need to stop at all costs.  It’s a recipe for failure.

    The best thing we can do is support whatever decision the people we hired to run the Executive Branch take and keep 100 % of the responsibility on the GOP.

  111. 111.

    David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch

    Wall Street doesn’t seem concerned about default.  10 year treasury is trading steady at 3.5% well below the high of 4.25% last October.

    If default was in the realm of possibility that rate would be going up to reflect the risk.

  112. 112.

    H.E.Wolf

    @Geminid: ​
     Late to the thread ’cause I’d gone offline, but thanks a million for the news re: Xochitl Torres Small! You made my evening with this. :)

  114. 114.

    David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch

    @cain: They use scientific methods like astrology, magic 8 balls and seances with JP Morgan’s ghost.

  115. 115.

    catclub

    @David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch: from he white house:

    The cost of insuring U.S. debt has also risen substantially and is now at an all-time high, reflecting increased worries about a U.S. default. In fact, credit default swap (CDS) spreads—the insurance premiums that must be paid to insure U.S. debt—started to increase dramatically in April, as demonstrated by Figure 2 below.

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2023/05/03/debt-ceiling-scenarios/
    There are also plays with these CDS’s that are made profitable if held on very low interest debt from 2020. So some financial people will be hoping for a short default.​ Once you get a short default it might turn into a long one.

  116. 116.

    TriassicSands

    @Baud: That’s the Dick Cheney philosophy.

    Maybe I’ll respond to that when I stop laughing. Sheesh.

    The best thing we can do is support whatever decision the people we hired to run the Executive Branch take and keep 100 % of the responsibility on the GOP.

    And that is the “Good German” philosophy. The “my country right or wrong” philosophy. The let’s keep bombing North Vietnam and killing hundreds of thousands more people because we voted for LBJ, and even if he’s terribly wrong, Baud says we have to support him philosophy.

    You can forget the idea that 100% of the blame is going to be on the GOP. A recent poll showed just what we’d expect — almost equal percentages of Americans will blame Democrats (Biden) and the GOP. What a shocker!

    100% of this debacle is the fault of the GOP, but they aren’t going to get 100% of the blame and there is nothing we can do about that. Biden’s primary responsibility is not getting re-elected (despite how important that is). It is to do the job in front of him, which at this point is to do whatever he can — legally — to prevent default. Since negotiating with McCarthy is surrender that will have to be repeated again and again in the future, Biden can’t give in to the GOP’s demands. But that isn’t his only option. Since there is no definitive decision as to what is and isn’t legal. I’ll rely on Lawrence Tribe’s opinion more than what five or six hyper-partisan nutjobs on the SCOTUS might say at some time in the future. And if the SCOTUS forces the country into default then, and only then, will it be clear to even the stupidest Americans who is to blame.

    I’m not the least bit worried about a constitutional crisis. We’re already deep in the middle of one caused by an illegitimate SCOTUS majority. If Biden acts and it goes to the SCOTUS and they force the country into default, then it will be obvious who is to blame. Five or six hyper-partisan neo-fascists all appointed by Republican presidents.

    There is NO painless way out of this.

  117. 117.

    David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch

    @catclub: I’m not saying our hair wouldn’t get mussed, 10 to 20 million white people without their Social Security checks, tops – depending on the breaks.

  121. 121.

    columbusqueen

    @MazeDancer: They’re not blackmoor figures by any means; it looks like something from the Regency period, perhaps to mourn war dead.

  122. 122.

    WaterGirl

    @Geminid: The thing about superseding indictments with Trump – as I understand it –is that it would slow the whole case down and quite possibly make it so nothing could be resolved before it’s too late election-wise.

    My guess is that they will go for what they feel they can for sure prove now and take that case all the way.

    I don’t know why they couldn’t do a completely separate case for something else.

    BUT I AM NOT A LAWYER.

  125. 125.

    Kent

    @cain:Either they think Biden will cave or that magically things will be ok.

    It’s actually not up to Biden.  It’s up to the Senate and House.

  128. 128.

    Matt McIrvin

    @TriassicSands:

    Lincoln is considered our greatest president, but he suspended habeas corpus — an unthinkable act — because he deemed it necessary. That took courage.

    This is often described in a manner that makes it sound more radical than it was. The Constitution explicitly allows for suspending habeas corpus in exactly the situation where Lincoln did it (there was a civil war on). The constitutional problem was a separation-of-powers issue: it gives that power to Congress, not to the President, and Congress couldn’t approve simply because it wasn’t in session. If I recall correctly, when they were back in session they rapidly gave approval.

    So, yes, it was an unconstitutional move, but not for the reason you might think.

  129. 129.

    Ken Schulz

    @Roger Moore:

    The discharge petition seems like a pretty good plan B. Are there fewer five Republican Representatives that depend on big donors to finance their election campaigns? Big donors who would see massive losses if the government defaulted?

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