Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Take your GOP plan out of the witness protection program.

Let’s delete this post and never speak of this again.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

When your entire life is steeped in white supremacy, equality feels like discrimination.

How can republicans represent us when they don’t trust women?

They think we are photo bombing their nice little lives.

Republicans are the party of chaos and catastrophe.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

Do not shrug your shoulders and accept the normalization of untruths.

I see no possible difficulties whatsoever with this fool-proof plan.

When do the post office & the dmv weigh in on the wuhan virus?

Putin must be throwing ketchup at the walls.

🎶 Those boots were made for mockin’ 🎵

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

They are lying in pursuit of an agenda.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

T R E 4 5 O N

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

Putin dreamed of ending NATO, and now it’s Finnish-ed.

I’d try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

A last alliance of elves and men. also pet photos.

Roe isn’t about choice, it’s about freedom.

I’m pretty sure there’s only one Jack Smith.

You are here: Home / Politics / Trump Indictments / Should We Have An ‘Office’ Pool?

Should We Have An ‘Office’ Pool?

by | 122 Comments

This post is in: ,

The obvious question:  how many days before Trump violates the order?

If you want to participate:

Pick a number between 1 and 14, inclusive, or you may choose never.

You may also weigh in on what you think the consequences will be if he violates the order.

Winners get a hearty handshake and a pat on the back.

Totally open thread.

Reader Interactions

122Comments

  5. 5.

    StringOnAStick

    I’m going to pick a number based on how long I think it will take for the jury to return a verdict in the defamation case, which goes to the jury tomorrow.  I figure 4 days.

  8. 8.

    West of the Rockies

    I will say three days.  He will feel compelled to try to manipulate/shame/threaten the jury.  He will feel justified.  He might face a (for him) small fine.

  12. 12.

    Manyakitty

    I’ll bite on 1, but he’s probably already blarping about it.

    Didja see where the Blogfather went public with his impending nuptials on FB?

  15. 15.

    Searcher

    I dunno, he managed to go the whole four years without using that word in public, and i didn’t think that would happen.

  17. 17.

    WaterGirl

    @Manyakitty: Thanks for sending!  Classic Cole!

    “Park Pgirl and I would like to announced that in the Fall of ’24 or somewhere thereabouts, we will be getting married, united in unholy matrimony, living with the benefit of clergy, or whatever you want to call it.  We had wanted to keep this private for a while but my parents have big mouths.

    No, I will not be participating in a bachelor party just so you can get away from your wives for a weekend to get drunk and act the fool, I have had 53 years of bachelor party and am good to go.

    Also, no, you are not invited.”

    No idea what Park Pgirl means.  Is that a typo?  Or a Facebook name?

  19. 19.

    Manyakitty

    @WaterGirl: it’s her Facebook name. I considered copying and pasting Cole’s comment here, but I’m glad you made the call. It’s been a long day and I don’t trust my social judgement 🤣🤣

  24. 24.

    Scout211

    Which case is “the Manhattan criminal case?”

    ETA:  Nevermind. Google is my friend.

    A New York City judge imposed a protective order Monday in the Manhattan district attorney’s criminal case against former President Donald Trump that is meant to ensure evidence shared by the DA’s office doesn’t wind up on the internet.
     
    Trump pleaded not guilty last month to 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in connection to what prosecutors call an “illegal scheme” to influence the 2016 presidential election by directing his then-personal attorney Michael Cohen to pay $130,000 to adult film actress Stormy Daniels to prevent her from publicizing a long-denied affair with Trump.

  25. 25.

    Jeffro

    This particular gag order aside, I’d like to place what is perhaps the world’s safest bet* and lay down a marker that as indictments drop in all of his various criminal cases, even sly ol’ trumpov will slip up and call for actual violence against one (or more) of the prosecutors bringing cases against him.

    At which point, I seriously hope said prosecutor has trumpov thrown into jail for terroristic threatening, or whatever the charge is technically called.

    *runner up: the Jets will still go nowhere with Aaron Rodgers at the helm.

  26. 26.

    Hilbertsubspace

    Since this is basically wish casting….. I’m gonna say 56 hours till he violates the order, so Thursday morning 4 a.m.  Punishment will be a fortnight in a crow’s cage being pelted by rotten fruit.  (Or the maximum fine allowed by law)

  28. 28.

    West of the Rockies

    @WaterGirl:

    My bad.  I only scanned your intriguing post and jumped to the conclusion that it was the rape case.

    I think he will eventually, however, defy the judge from the extensive white-collar crimes in the NY case, the closer it gets to a jury.

  30. 30.

    persistentillusion

    2.5, his handlers will throttle for for a day or two and then….. boom.

  32. 32.

    WaterGirl

    @Amir Khalid: Future lady of Balloon Juice?

    But yes, the future wife of John G. Cole.

    edit: I was going to say the future Mrs. Cole, but then I have no idea whether she would take Cole’s name (I’ve got “no” in the betting pool on that one) and there is already a Mrs. john Cole, and I do not want to piss off Mom Cole.

  35. 35.

    WaterGirl

    @Noah Brand: I think a VERY STERN warning the first time he does it, unless he shares a shitload all at once.  Then if he does it again I think maybe he is no longer allowed access to the internet or he has to be in custody to prevent it happening again.

    If a shitload at once, I think there will be real consequences.

    Signal jammers in FL!

  36. 36.

    Scout211

    @WaterGirl: Thanks. I looked it up and added that in my comment above. There are just too many court cases  and they all seem to vaguely overlap.

    My guess, he will last until late Friday night.  So that is 4 days (or 5 if it’s after midnight). He will be thinking that the judge won’t be working on the weekend so he can get away with shit-posting and the judge won’t see it. 🙄

  37. 37.

    Mai Naem mobile

    9hrs+30mins. I am thinking this is like The Price is Right set up so I am going for less than 10 hrs.

  39. 39.

    JoyceH

    I don’t think we can make an educated guess on how soon Trump will violate the court order. Thing is, everyone on this thread is talking as if Trump tweets his ‘truths’ with his own fat little fingers. We know he doesn’t do that. He has a Guy who does it for him.

    Remember Trump’s era. When he came up, the way an executive communicated was to bark out some words that The Girl took down on her steno pad. She then went away to a typewriter and soon, voila, a memo or letter. Take away The Girl, and Mister Big Shot Executive was completely incapable of communicating.

    In today’s environment, we don’t know who The Guy is, and how much intestinal fortitude The Guy has in a face-off with tantruming Trump, and how seriously it’s been impressed upon him that if he follows certain directions, he would be abetting Trump in committing a crime.

    So – who’s The Guy?

  40. 40.

    WaterGirl

    @Scout211:

    He will be thinking that the judge won’t be working on the weekend so he can get away with shit-posting and the judge won’t see it. 🙄

    Oh my god, if he believes that, he is going to find out that he is wrong.

  41. 41.

    Amir Khalid

    @WaterGirl:

    Future first lady of Balloon Juice. She very graciously accepted the title when I gave it to her at the time of Cole’s first announcement.

  43. 43.

    Virginia

    Depends on when the E. Jean Carroll verdict comes in.  He will lose his mind for real then and say all kinds of shit.

  47. 47.

    WaterGirl

    @Virginia: I think he gets to say anything he wants about the E. Jean Carroll case once the verdict comes in, right?

    If he gets off, then he will be cocky.  If he loses, then he spouts off about that case.  Maybe then he throws a tantrum to let the NY judge know “you’re not the boss of me!”

  48. 48.

    WaterGirl

    @Manyakitty: They say that at least one of the 9 jurors primarily gets his news from right-wing internet sites.  Not sure that bodes well.

    This verdict has to be unanimous.  9 out of 9 guilty or a hung jury.

    Is there such a thing as a hung jury in a civil case?  Or is it “not guilty” if not all 9 agree?

  49. 49.

    NotMax

    @WaterGirl

    “I did not post anything about it on social media. I may have made a statement or two to among my inner circle of staff who have access to the accounts; what they do with the information after that is entirely up to them.”
    //

  57. 57.

    brendancalling

    It’s Monday night, 10:58 EST. I’ll give him til Wednesday latest, so two days.

  59. 59.

    mvr

    It is sort of fun reading through these two combined combined threads about Cole & Trump and trying to guess which comments are about whom.  (When they involve jail I generally guess the  latter.)

  60. 60.

    NotMax

    @WaterGirl

    New York Consolidated Laws, Civil Practice Law and Rules – CVP § 4113. Disagreement by jury

    (a) Unanimous verdict not required.  A verdict may be rendered by not less than five-sixths of the jurors constituting a jury.

    (b) Procedure where jurors disagree.  Where five-sixths of the jurors constituting a jury cannot agree after being kept together for as long as is deemed reasonable by the court, the court shall discharge the jury and direct a new trial before another jury. Source

  61. 61.

    mvr

    @WaterGirl: Hung.
    Edited to add that NotMAx immediately above is more informed yet. So it is 5/6 to find for either the plaintiff or the defendant. Otherwise hung.

  62. 62.

    WaterGirl

    @NotMax:

    Does a civil jury have to be unanimous in NY?

    (a) Number of Jurors. A jury must begin with at least 6 and no more than 12 members, and each juror must participate in the verdict unless excused under Rule 47(c). (b) Verdict. Unless the parties stipulate otherwise, the verdict must be unanimous and must be returned by a jury of at least 6 members

    edit: I only know what the podcasts say, but I did find that above to supports what they said and contradicts what you found.  So who knows?

  63. 63.

    Jackie

    Before reading all the comments, my question is how many “this is your last warning” before TFG and/or his offspring actually get sent to their room(s) w/o dinner?

    Ok now to the comments.

  67. 67.

    Baud

    OT

     The U.S. Department of Education has approved $42 billion dollars in student loan forgiveness for more than 615,000 public service workers since October 2021, the agency said Monday, touting what it described as Biden administration changes to encourage wider use of a particular debt cancellation program.

  68. 68.

    CaseyL

    Wasn’t there some interval when TFG’s keepers took his phone away from him to keep him from shitposting?

    If they’ve done so again, he plain won’t be able to post or comment – unless he runs his mouth off to one of his pet reporters (*cough*Maggie*cough*).  In which case they’ll probably keep their yap shut to avoid the judge being mad at them.

  70. 70.

    TaMara

    I’m too sick to read through all the comments, but I say by 3 am EDT he’ll have vomited all over not-“truth social” in violation of the judge’s order.

    Also, I predict end of day tomorrow for a verdict on the rape case. At which time all bets are off on how deranged he gets.

    Also, those grand jury tapes are going to make awesome campaign ads.

  71. 71.

    Jackie

    @Hilbertsubspace: I’m betting another chance. As in the judge saying “Ok, that’s 1… If you do it ‘one more time… No, I mean it! This time I’m serious!’”

  73. 73.

    Dr. Jakyll and Miss Deride

    @WaterGirl: O/T, but I missed the previous thread where it would have been germane.  Anyway, I thought I’d throw it in here because it might help to put your mind more at ease.

    You said the prosecution has to be convinced they have strong enough evidence to win at trial and to win on appeal. The second point isn’t really a problem, because appellate courts don’t reweigh the evidence from scratch. If there was a judgment, they take the facts as found by the judge or jury (expressly or impliedly) and construe the evidence most favorably to those findings. People argue insufficiency of the evidence on appeal all the time, but to win with that argument you pretty much need to show that the factual findings made by the jury (or judge) defy the laws of nature.  As an appellate court staff attorney I must have written some version of that point about 5,000 times.

  74. 74.

    prostratedragon

    @5: I have the same heuristic, because he’s sure to crow (unlikely) or howl, however it goes. I’ll say 3 days.

  77. 77.

    SiubhanDuinne

    Two days. Somebody’s going to say something in that CNN town hall Wednesday night to set him off.

  78. 78.

    Kenneth Fair

    @zzyzx: Hahahahaha!!! That’s a good one.

    I figure it’s less than two days, and he’ll get a stern talking-to and an admonition not to do it again.

  80. 80.

    MisterForkbeard

    @WaterGirl: Whats really sad is that Cole should have a bachelor party. A giant LAN game, or maybe BJ goes on a Warcraft Raid or something.

  85. 85.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @WaterGirl:

    Most excellent point! I bet you were good at taking tests.

    Well, I was good at bullshitting. It’s pretty much the same thing.

  87. 87.

    Eunicecycle

    @NotMax: this case is in federal court and it does require a unanimous jury unfortunately. But at least the standard of proof is lower.

  89. 89.

    Ruckus

    I’m going to stun all of you.

    I don’t believe he’s ever been in this level of trouble before. I think he has been informed that spouting off, pissing off a judge at this point in time might just be more than his gigantic ego and tiny brain can deal with and that he should really, really, really shut the fuck up, because the only thing not shutting the hell up will do is make this a hell of a lot worse. He’s been quiet for a while now, if it’s because someone has him gagged or he actually realizes how fucked he is I think he’ll keep his trap shut.

    I’ll be the first to laugh if I’m wrong but I’m waiting to see if I get to bust a gut.

  91. 91.

    Jackie

    @SiubhanDuinne: Good one! Kaitlin will be called the “P word” and then he’ll have a 2 a.m. social media meltdown about “‘Everything and everybody’ that’s out to get him.”

  92. 92.

    Jackie

    @Ruckus: Yup. His last threat was while he was still in Ireland, and that came to nothing after the judge proceeding over the E Jean Carroll trial called his bluff. 😂

  93. 93.

    Noskilz

    I expect a week. Seven days seems like long enough for his handlers to get careless about reminding him, and long enough for whatever self control he might have left to evaporate.

  94. 94.

    Shalimar

    @JoyceH: The Guy who wrote most of Trump’s tweets in the White House was Dan Scavino.  As far as I have read, Scavino is one of the aides who continues to work for the ex-president, so my money is on him controlling the Truth Social account.

  96. 96.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @Shalimar:

    From reading the different styles of tweets, I got the impression most were dictated and Trump would let the person typing them in do a little cleanup depending on how much he wanted his genius communicating conveyed exactly.

  98. 98.

    Quaker in a Basement

    2.1 precisely.

    He will heed his lawyers’ warnings, but after two days, he will be unable to restrain himself a minute longer.

  99. 99.

    frosty

    8 days for me. He’ll be bouncing around manically by then. Are you doling out the hearty handshakes WG? Will I have to drive to Illinois or can we meet halfway?

  102. 102.

    Craig

    @WaterGirl: some use Chicago, or Strunk and White. The MAGA anti Style Guide is pretty easy to grok on Twitter. Any caddie can copy that tripe.

  104. 104.

    prostratedragon

    @Craig:
    @WaterGirl:
    Any Lateχians out there? I’m pretty rusty and there is no way in hell I’d be ramping up for this assigment, but should be doable.

  105. 105.

    TriassicSands

    Trump won’t violate the court order and any day now he will begin acting presidential.

  106. 106.

    Martin Schafer

    I’ll say 3 days.  He’ll just get a talking to about it.  Then another 2 days and when he violates it again he’ll be fined.  I don’t think the judge will lock him up no matter how many times he violates it.

  107. 107.

    David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch

    Pick a number between 1 and 14, inclusive

    0 is a number.

    Since he is a well known coward, i pick the number zero.

  108. 108.

    Matt McIrvin

    Trump can contain himself for short periods when it’s important. I think one of the reasons he managed to win the 2016 presidential election was that during the last week and a half or so of the campaign, while the Comey letter was landing and the New York Times was claiming there was no evidence of collusion with Russia, he managed to be relatively quiet.

  112. 112.

    mvr

    But if he controlls tweeting it will poke holes in his insanity defense in the other cases.

  113. 113.

    lee

    8 and I want the handshake from the man himself (Mr Cole). I’ll even be happy to travel to WV for it to happen.

  114. 114.

    xjmuellerlurks

    3.  Some time on Thursday.  Just a hunch that something will happen to set him off on Wednesday and in the early hours of Thursday he’ll do it.

  116. 116.

    Manyakitty

    @WaterGirl: Joyce White Vance explained it in her newsletter. Unanimous verdict because the trial is using federal rules. She explained about that, too, but I’m working now so all the useful information is crowded out of my head 🙃

  119. 119.

    Jackie

    @jimmiraybob: And “hours” is the winner!

    “Former President Donald Trump posted about his civil rape trial on social media after a judge cautioned him not to.

    “On Tuesday, Trump again posted about the trial, vowing to continue his presidential campaign “no matter the outcome.”

    “”Waiting for a jury decision on a False Accusation where I, despite being a current political candidate and leading all others in both parties, am not allowed to speak or defend myself, even as hard nosed reporters scream questions about this case at me,” Trump wrote.

    “”In the meantime, the other side has a book falsely accusing me of Rape, & is working with the press. I will therefore not speak until after the trial, but will appeal the Unconstitutional silencing of me, as a candidate, no matter the outcome!””

    Let’s see how the judge responds…

    https://www.rawstory.com/trump-rape-trial-social-media/

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