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You are here: Home / Open Threads / Open Thread: Life Expectancy in America – Chicken or the Egg?

Open Thread: Life Expectancy in America – Chicken or the Egg?

by WaterGirl|  May 9, 20231:15 pm| 137 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

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Red states, blue states – and life expectancy.

Cause or effect?  Chicken or the egg?

Either way, if the red states voted blue, you can bet that poverty and health care issues would be addressed, both of which certainly have an impact on life expectancy.

This is basically a 20-year gap. Wow. pic.twitter.com/4L37FdeVkj

— Steve Chernoski (@nsjersey) April 1, 2023

Open thread.

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Reader Interactions

137Comments

  1. 1.

    bbleh

    May 9, 2023 at 1:20 pm

    Turns out the Woke Mind Virus is actually good for you.  Who knew?

  2. 2.

    Parfigliano

    May 9, 2023 at 1:20 pm

    Good.  Now die quicker.  They will never change only double down.  History shows this.

  3. 3.

    Jerzy Russian

    May 9, 2023 at 1:22 pm

    Wow indeed.  Just eyeballing, but I suspect some of the reddest areas in the west are on reservations where often the lack of resources is crippling.  On the other hand, for a state like Alabama it comes down to state government at some point.

  4. 4.

    mrmoshpotato

    May 9, 2023 at 1:23 pm

    Apparently funding hospitals (and accepting Medicaid expansion) is good for people and their ability to keep living!

    Hoocoodanoodled!

  5. 5.

    cain

    May 9, 2023 at 1:23 pm

    Their plan is to send their unfortunates over to the blue states to help improve their numbers.

  6. 6.

    Matt McIrvin

    May 9, 2023 at 1:26 pm

    Notice, some of the red states are doing quite well. They’re the really white ones (that are not Appalachian). And, yeah, those red spots on the map are Native reservations.

    What it really looks like is a map of poverty.

  7. 7.

    Betty Cracker

    May 9, 2023 at 1:28 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: Bingo.

  8. 8.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    May 9, 2023 at 1:29 pm

    One interesting thing I read recently is that Latinos tend to have higher life expectancies than non-Hispanic whites, known as the Hispanic paradox

  9. 9.

    Dorothy A. Winsor

    May 9, 2023 at 1:31 pm

    Barbara Kingsolver has won the Pulitzer for DEMON COPPERHEAD. That book impressed the heck out of me. I still think about what it shows of poverty in America.

  10. 10.

    Elizabelle

    May 9, 2023 at 1:33 pm

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:  I was happy to see that.  Still have to read Demon Copperhead.

  11. 11.

    Jeffro

    May 9, 2023 at 1:35 pm

    @Dorothy A. Winsor: I tried that one and just couldn’t get into it, but good for her!  It was highly recommended by many so clearly it was a Fro problem, not a Kingsolver problem.  =)

  12. 12.

    Elizabelle

    May 9, 2023 at 1:36 pm

    The Dead South.

  13. 13.

    Matt McIrvin

    May 9, 2023 at 1:36 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I think the racial distribution of suicide is fascinating: Black, Hispanic and Asian people have much lower suicide rates than non-Hispanic white people… and Native Americans. That might have more to do with availability of guns than anything else.

  14. 14.

    Roger Moore

    May 9, 2023 at 1:36 pm

    @Jerzy Russian:

    On the other hand, for a state like Alabama it comes down to state government at some point.

    Yes and no.  Yes, the state could be doing better with the resources it has, but Alabama is also extremely poor and lacks the resources of many of the better off places.  Very importantly, a lot of the poor places have almost always been poor.  Yeah, there were some very rich people in the antebellum South, but their wealth was built on the backs of extreme poverty for everyone else.

    One place I find really fascinating in Texas.  You see some of the expected blue spots around the big cities, but the Rio Grande valley- a poor rural area- does pretty well also.  It would be worthwhile looking to see what they’re doing differently from other poor rural areas.

  15. 15.

    Elizabelle

    May 9, 2023 at 1:36 pm

    @Jeffro:   That has happened to me sometimes.  Which means:  pick it up again in a year or two, and give it a go then.

  16. 16.

    Soprano2

    May 9, 2023 at 1:37 pm

    Someone on that Twitter thread posted a map of rates of obesity and said it’s a lot like that, which is true to some extent. Probably lack of health care and access to grocery stores with good food and places to exercise more than anything else, although I notice in MO the St. Louis, KC, Springfield and Columbia/Jeff City areas are blue, everything else is on the bottom part of the scale.

  17. 17.

    Elizabelle

    May 9, 2023 at 1:37 pm

    @Matt McIrvin:  And expectations.

  18. 18.

    bbleh

    May 9, 2023 at 1:37 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: or perhaps more precisely, unmitigated poverty.  There are some pretty poor counties in Cal that still are definitely on the blue side.  And there are some relatively wealthy counties in the deep and border South that are very red indeed.  The difference, I suspect, is that the state helps out much more in the former than in the latter.

  19. 19.

    eclare

    May 9, 2023 at 1:38 pm

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:

    That’s on my list.  I loved The Poisonwood Bible.

  20. 20.

    Eolirin

    May 9, 2023 at 1:39 pm

    @Roger Moore: If Alabama (and the others) was not getting in the way, the federal government would be doing more to make sure they had the resources they need. It’s not just a local issue, it’s also how they poison national policy.

  21. 21.

    Shalimar

    May 9, 2023 at 1:39 pm

    The one state I know on a county-by-county level is Alabama.  The worst life-expectancy counties are the ones with the highest percentage of black residents.  This is not a coincidence.

  22. 22.

    laura

    May 9, 2023 at 1:40 pm

    @Dorothy A. Winsor: I had to set this book down once he was robbed at the truck stop. Just crushing cruelty and hope murdered on the hour.

  23. 23.

    Betty Cracker

    May 9, 2023 at 1:46 pm

    @eclare: I loved Poisonwood but could not get into Demon. Will try it again later; could be I just wasn’t in the right frame of mind.

  24. 24.

    Elizabelle

    May 9, 2023 at 1:47 pm

    The Substack article that goes with that map.  It’s from February 2021.  Wonder how much it might have changed, with Covid deaths.

    From the American Inequality site. https://americaninequality.substack.com/p/life-expectancy-and-inequality
    Life Expectancy and Inequality
    America is experiencing the greatest gap in life expectancy across regions in the last 40 years.

  25. 25.

    West of the Rockies

    May 9, 2023 at 1:48 pm

    That’s weird… it’s almost like places with minimal social safety networks, diminished education outcomes, and a steady diet of rage, fear, and resentment do poorly.

  26. 26.

    Suzanne

    May 9, 2023 at 1:49 pm

    @Matt McIrvin:

    What it really looks like is a map of poverty. 

    Also a map of obesity levels. And highest level of education achieved. Etc etc etc.

  27. 27.

    Formerly disgruntled in Oregon

    May 9, 2023 at 1:50 pm

    This map shows generations of wealth inequality adding up. It shows the persistence of poverty, concentrated in specific locations. It shows how racism and exclusion have perpetuated that poverty.

    It shows a lot. Don’t oversimplify it by tying it up in relatively recent electoral politics.

  28. 28.

    Dorothy A. Winsor

    May 9, 2023 at 1:50 pm

    For me, Demon Copperhead illustrates the poverty we’re talking about in this thread. It’s set in Appalachia, and includes the fentanyl epidemic.

  29. 29.

    Heidi Mom

    May 9, 2023 at 1:51 pm

    @Dorothy A. Winsor: Same here.  It really showed just how hard it is to climb out of a culture of poverty, even with a helping hand or two along the way.

  30. 30.

    Baud

    May 9, 2023 at 1:53 pm

    Notably, the South has the largest bloc of states that have refused to expand Medicaid.

  31. 31.

    Heidi Mom

    May 9, 2023 at 1:53 pm

    @laura:  To avoid spoilers, I’ll just say “don’t give up when you’ve read so far.”

  32. 32.

    Bobby Thomson

    May 9, 2023 at 1:54 pm

    Pretty clear correlation with some noticeable outliers (e.g., Detroit, Nebraska, Kansas)

  33. 33.

    Another Scott

    May 9, 2023 at 1:56 pm

    It’s the chicken. The adults make the environment where the eggs grow.

    Kinda relatedly, PetaPixel.com – A mother’s desperation.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  34. 34.

    Mel

    May 9, 2023 at 1:57 pm

    @Betty Cracker: Same for me.

  35. 35.

    cain

    May 9, 2023 at 2:02 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: I also think that for some demographics they have support systems. When you’re living in places that experience racism – I think you form natural safe places (eg black churches).  I’m not sure that applies to native american reservations however.

  36. 36.

    cain

    May 9, 2023 at 2:06 pm

    @Baud: the south has a lot of things they refuse to do. We’ve really did them an injustice when we didn’t do our due diligence of forcing them to conform after the civil war.

  37. 37.

    Elizabelle

    May 9, 2023 at 2:06 pm

    USA!  USA!  14 year old girl shot in the head on Sunday while playing hide and seek on a neighbor’s property;  thankfully, her injuries are not life threatening.  Thankfully, the shooter is in a heap of trouble. In jail with a $300,000 bond, for starters.  He shot at the “shadows” as they were fleeing his property.

    WaPost:

    A Louisiana man has been charged after police said he shot a 14-year-old girl in the back of the head after she had been playing hide-and-seek on his property.

    The shooting occurred Sunday morning in Starks, La., a rural town of fewer than 700 people near the border with Texas. Officers from the Calcasieu Parish Sheriff’s Office received reports of a shooting at a property there, the office said in a news release. When they arrived, they found the girl suffering from a gunshot wound. She was taken to a hospital with injuries that weren’t life-threatening, the release said.

    The release said children had been playing hide-and-seek in the area and hiding on David V. Doyle’s property. Doyle, 58, told officers he got his gun after seeing “shadows outside his home.”

    Doyle “then advised detectives he went back outside and observed people running away from his property, at which time he began shooting at them and unknowingly hit the girl,” according to the release.

    The incident is the latest in a string of U.S. shootings this year in which young people have been shot — some fatally — after mistakenly being in the wrong location.

    Police arrested Doyle and charged him with aggravated battery, four counts of aggravated assault with a firearm and illegal discharge of a firearm. He remained in custody Tuesday morning at the Calcasieu Correctional Center, with bond set at $300,000.

    Last month, four similar shootings occurred in one week.

  38. 38.

    JoyceH

    May 9, 2023 at 2:07 pm

    I recently saw a news item about one of those Deep South states, was either Alabama or Mississippi, where they had just passed legislation changing the child labor laws to allow children as young as 14 to work in “roofing, construction, and demolition”. What could possibly go wrong?

  39. 39.

    Ceci n est pas mon nym

    May 9, 2023 at 2:10 pm

    Since it’s an open thread: it seems we have some neighbors who don’t like us.

    Every time we sit on our back porch, Mama and Papa Cardinal are hovering around chirping nonstop at us and generally complaining about our presence.

    I mean, I’m sorry I look like a threat to the nest and I feel bad I’m upsetting your equanimity, but it’s my porch and I’m going to sit there on nice days.

    Also it’s kind of hard to feel very threatened by those tiny little chirps.

  40. 40.

    Elizabelle

    May 9, 2023 at 2:10 pm

    @JoyceH:  At least it keeps them from playing hide and seek in their neighbor’s yards!

    re the 14 year old girl shot:  CNN has the story.  Yep.  The shooter is a white guy.  No info on the vic, yet.

  41. 41.

    Steeplejack

    May 9, 2023 at 2:11 pm

    @Elizabelle:

    [. . .] observed people running away from his property, at which time he began shooting at them [. . .].

    Complete asshole. I hope they throw the book at him.

  42. 42.

    Elizabelle

    May 9, 2023 at 2:11 pm

    @Ceci n est pas mon nym:  Thinking they are protecting a nest that is nearby??

  43. 43.

    Baud

    May 9, 2023 at 2:12 pm

    @Ceci n est pas mon nym:

    Apparently, in some states, you can just shoot them if they’re bothering you.

  44. 44.

    Ceci n est pas mon nym

    May 9, 2023 at 2:16 pm

    @Elizabelle: I’m guessing so. I was just outside in the yard with the dog and gradually realized I had both of them chirping at me from a couple of feet away, in the tree I was standing next to.

    I don’t see a nest but I guess that’s where it is.

  45. 45.

    Betsy

    May 9, 2023 at 2:16 pm

    @Parfigliano: Be careful with your rejoicing.  In the multi-state red region where I live, it’s Black people dying early.

  46. 46.

    Soprano2

    May 9, 2023 at 2:17 pm

    @Elizabelle: Yet another example of “Nextdoor brain”, he’s learned to be scared of shadows.

  47. 47.

    sdhays

    May 9, 2023 at 2:19 pm

    @Elizabelle: I’d like the people who bitch about parents being too protective nowadays to appreciate that children can be shot by raving lunatics at just about any random location in this god-forsaken shithole of a country.

    Can’t go to the mall – it might be someone’s day to shoot it up.

    Can’t play in the neighborhood – the neighbor might decide they’re a threat and start shooting before asking questions.

    Can’t drive around – you might get lost and someone shoots at you when you try to turn around.

    Can’t stop at the grocery store – if you mistakenly head towards someone else’s car, they might shoot you because…I don’t know.

  48. 48.

    Elizabelle

    May 9, 2023 at 2:19 pm

    @Steeplejack:  I think they are going to.  (1). Shooting someone running away. (2).  Telling the detectives you shot “unknowingly.”  Nope.  You’re culpable, guy.

    There were only three houses on that deadend rural road.  One was the child’s; one was some relatives of hers; one was Mr. Stand Your Yard.

  49. 49.

    Baud

    May 9, 2023 at 2:20 pm

    @sdhays:

    The one silver lining is that these people are being arrested and charged.  No stand your ground excuses.

  50. 50.

    billcinsd

    May 9, 2023 at 2:21 pm

    @Jerzy Russian: That’s certainly true for South Dakota. The red areas are all reservations

  51. 51.

    Elizabelle

    May 9, 2023 at 2:21 pm

    @Ceci n est pas mon nym:  Some mockingbirds restricted my access to my own patio last year.  I was so proud they’d chosen me.

    They are around the tree now, and I fervently hope they will nest again.  There is a new nest, way way up in the tree.  I’d thought it might be robins.  That nest must be an amusement park ride in the wind.

  52. 52.

    gene108

    May 9, 2023 at 2:22 pm

    @Parfigliano:

    Good. Now die quicker. They will never change only double down. History shows this.

    I have a feeling those with shorter life expectancy in places like AL, MS, and the South, in general, are African Americans and Hispanics.

    White Republicans aren’t going to live longer.

  53. 53.

    Betsy

    May 9, 2023 at 2:22 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): Where I am, I’ve seen studies that have found the longevity and good health of immigrant Latinx people is due to a combination of healthful traditional cooking and eating practices, strong familial and social ties, among other factors.

    Interestingly the protective effect on health declines with the number of years spent in this country. People slowly acquire American junk eating habits, then their health metrics worsen.

    wE’Re nUmBeR #1!!!

  54. 54.

    trollhattan

    May 9, 2023 at 2:22 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    “A taco truck on every corner.”

    “Huzzah!”

  55. 55.

    Roger Moore

    May 9, 2023 at 2:23 pm

    @Steeplejack:

    I hope they throw the book at him.

    I didn’t see an attempted murder charge, so they’re holding back a bit.  I remember when the standard approach for scaring people away from your property was rock salt rounds for a shotgun.  They’re unlikely to be lethal, but they do hurt like hell and advertise that the owner could go for something worse.

  56. 56.

    scav

    May 9, 2023 at 2:23 pm

    Target Practice Hide and Seek!  Classic traditional All-American traditional idyllic game of iconic childhood.  Run Dick Run!  See Jane Bleed!

  57. 57.

    trollhattan

    May 9, 2023 at 2:24 pm

    @Elizabelle: They charged him even in Louisiana? Must deploy shocked face. (⊙o⊙)

  58. 58.

    sdhays

    May 9, 2023 at 2:24 pm

    @Baud: True. But that’s a pretty low bar.

  59. 59.

    Betsy

    May 9, 2023 at 2:25 pm

    @sdhays: And how funny, the same right wingers that bitch about overly protective parents raising little snowflakes are the first to blame parents for not keeping a tight leash on the kids.

    Some poor little gets hurt by a dangerous toy or defective product or mistaking a tide pod for a colorful candy or hit by a car while playing, they put it on “poor parenting, should have kept a better eye on your kid!!!” Fucking Puritans

  60. 60.

    Baud

    May 9, 2023 at 2:27 pm

    @sdhays:

    Low bar = greater chance at success.

  61. 61.

    Elizabelle

    May 9, 2023 at 2:28 pm

    @Soprano2:  So true about Nextdoor brain.  I got on the site to help with finding lost pets.  The paranoia is not appealing.

    @sdhays:   It’s too much.  That many guns cannot co-exist with a modern society.

    I actually think we are going to see more action than we think; I just don’t know when.  It’s now recognized as the public health danger it is.  People are fed up.

    We’re not one issue voters, but we’re sure not on the side of the gun lobby.

  62. 62.

    Elizabelle

    May 9, 2023 at 2:30 pm

    @trollhattan:   Louisiana on the Texass border.

    He looks a little startled to be wearing Trump orange.

  63. 63.

    dmsilev

    May 9, 2023 at 2:30 pm

    @Ceci n est pas mon nym:

    Every time we sit on our back porch, Mama and Papa Cardinal are hovering around chirping nonstop at us and generally complaining about our presence.

    I have hummingbirds that do the same thing. Which is kind of annoying since I also feed them. Show some gratitude!

  64. 64.

    lowtechcyclist

    May 9, 2023 at 2:31 pm

    @Elizabelle:

    observed people running away from his property, at which time he began shooting at them

    Well of course, they were clearly a threat. //

    Fuck guns.  I’m really getting to the point of believing there should be no such thing as private ownership of guns.  If you want to go deer hunting, you should be able to check out a rifle from the local Fish & Wildlife office, and return it when done.

  65. 65.

    Elizabelle

    May 9, 2023 at 2:31 pm

    @Ceci n est pas mon nym:

    Ceci’s little birds are braver than Mr. Stand Your Yard.

  66. 66.

    WaterGirl

    May 9, 2023 at 2:32 pm

    @West of the Rockies: Totally perplexing!

  67. 67.

    trollhattan

    May 9, 2023 at 2:32 pm

    So today is SovietRussia Victory Day in which Vlad asserts to his adoring people (either before or after the ginormous Kremlin military parade Trump is so openly jealous of) that The West have forgotten all about how Soviet Union kicked Hitler until Hitler killed Hitler and instead of being grateful, today threaten, threaten, THREATEN peaceful Russia and thus, Ukraine attacked Russia and must be stopped. Go, Army!

    It’s all very gaslightish and aimed at Russian citizens and allies, only with the added feature of hundreds of thousands mangled or dead and whole cities obliterated into rubble.

    This fuckin’ guy.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65532088

  68. 68.

    WaterGirl

    May 9, 2023 at 2:33 pm

    @Baud: I’m sure things will get better now that a lot of hospitals are closing in red states that resist expanded Medicaid. //

  69. 69.

    WaterGirl

    May 9, 2023 at 2:34 pm

    @Bobby Thomson: Democratic government?

  70. 70.

    Sure Lurkalot

    May 9, 2023 at 2:34 pm

    I’m just finishing up Poverty, By America, by Matthew Desmond. It’s an excellent analysis of causes and effects and explores solutions, which are basically choices we all need to make.

    Where it really hits home is its elucidation of how much largesse the government affords the non poor…mortgage deductions, college savings plans not to mention insufficient enforcement of tax collection and unearned income taxed at lower rates. When the ACA was being negotiated, some of my workmates were incredulous when I pointed out their employer based health insurance was subsidized by the government to the extent the premiums paid were untaxed as income and that their employers’ expensed.

  71. 71.

    lowtechcyclist

    May 9, 2023 at 2:34 pm

    @Betsy:

    In the multi-state red region where I live, it’s Black people dying early.

    I bet that’s earlier.  IME, even reasonably well-off white Southerners don’t last as long as people further north.  Crappy diet and lack of exercise lead to shorter lifespans, no matter what your income bracket.

  72. 72.

    WaterGirl

    May 9, 2023 at 2:35 pm

    @JoyceH: Children are expendable.  Fetuses are not.

  73. 73.

    John Revolta

    May 9, 2023 at 2:36 pm

    @Ceci n est pas mon nym: One year about hmmm years ago some cardinals built a nest in the evergreen right next to my grandparents’ front porch. We couldn’t use the front door for about a month or so. I still have a very early memory of my grandfather getting divebombed by Papa Cardinal on the porch while I watched from the front yard………..

  74. 74.

    WaterGirl

    May 9, 2023 at 2:36 pm

    @Baud: I mean, really, who wouldn’t stand their ground and shoot to kill…

    Shadows. That. Are. Running. Away.

    [insert head-banging emoji here]

  75. 75.

    SiubhanDuinne

    May 9, 2023 at 2:37 pm

    @Baud:

    Apparently, in some states, you can just shoot them if they’re bothering you.

    Or even if you just think they might bother you. Or if you just think they’re thinking about bothering you.

  76. 76.

    sdhays

    May 9, 2023 at 2:37 pm

    @Elizabelle: The Republican Party is actively arming drug gangs! And proud of it! And then they complain about crime from Mexico! Are you a criminal? The Republican Party wants to facilitate your acquisition of an insane arsenal of weapons. And then they want everyone else so despondent about the collapse in public safety that they make bad choices trying to protect themselves.

    I think Greg Abbott (for one) gets off every time someone gets shot in Texass. Literally. He’s clearly that depraved.

  77. 77.

    trollhattan

    May 9, 2023 at 2:38 pm

    @sdhays: “If I can’t walk, why should you?”

    Checks out.

  78. 78.

    tokyokie

    May 9, 2023 at 2:39 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

    One interesting thing I read recently is that Latinos tend to have higher life expectancies than non-Hispanic whites, known as the Hispanic paradox

    The map confirms that finding. The heavily Hispanic Rio Grande Valley in Texas is all shades of blue. The other blue areas in Texas tend to be large urban areas.

  79. 79.

    WaterGirl

    May 9, 2023 at 2:39 pm

    @billcinsd: It’s criminal.

  80. 80.

    John Revolta

    May 9, 2023 at 2:41 pm

    @trollhattan: I saw a a picture of the parade that featured one (1) 80-year-old tank rumbling along where the year before there were dozens……………….. where did all the tanks go, I wondered?

  81. 81.

    scav

    May 9, 2023 at 2:43 pm

    @WaterGirl: 14 year old shadows, mind.  Feminine 14 year old fleeing shadows.  Armed He-men need serious protection against those.

  82. 82.

    sdhays

    May 9, 2023 at 2:44 pm

    @lowtechcyclist: I can accept that rural areas may need a rifle or something to deal with dangerous wildlife, but they should be limited, highly regulated, and require licensing that has teeth regarding safe handling and storage.

    Otherwise, I agree – personal ownership of firearms should be illegal.

    I also want a pony. //

  83. 83.

    JoyceH

    May 9, 2023 at 2:47 pm

    Lisa Rubin reports on Twitter that the jury has reached a verdict in the Carrol trial – standing by…

  84. 84.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    May 9, 2023 at 2:48 pm

    Mueller, She Wrote @MuellerSheWrote
    BREAKING: There is a VERDICT in the E JEAN CARROLL case

    as I recall from previous Trials of the Century, it takes a while to get from here to a public announcement.
    I’d bet it’s against trump, but who knows?

  85. 85.

    Ksmiami

    May 9, 2023 at 2:48 pm

    @trollhattan: which is why we need to give Ukraine everything they need to obliterate Russian invaders.

  86. 86.

    NotMax

    May 9, 2023 at 2:51 pm

    @John Revolta

    Tanks for the memories.
    :)

  87. 87.

    Elizabelle

    May 9, 2023 at 2:51 pm

    @JoyceH:   Sounds like guilty to me.  But what do I know.

    Whichever way it goes, I salute EJ Carroll for her courage in going up against TFG.  (Eventually will be The Felon Guy.  Some day.)

    Not enough that he is shameless and notorious.  Hiding behind a presidency he did not deserve.  For years.

  88. 88.

    Scout211

    May 9, 2023 at 2:52 pm

    @JoyceH: 

    From MSNBC: @lawofruby reports that they will read the verdict at the top of the hour. She's surprised because the verdict form is complicated and the jury deliberated for under 3 hours. A quick verdict suggest swift unanimity in either direction.— Mueller, She Wrote (@MuellerSheWrote) May 9, 2023

  89. 89.

    bbleh

    May 9, 2023 at 2:55 pm

    @JoyceH: @Jim, Foolish Literalist: NYT sez verdict to be read at 3pm

  90. 90.

    Elizabelle

    May 9, 2023 at 2:55 pm

    Police report says girl was “transported to a hospital out of town to be treated for non-life threatening injuries.”

    Lucky she was not more badly injured.  Time is life.  I wonder how far they had to transport her.

  91. 91.

    Roger Moore

    May 9, 2023 at 2:57 pm

    @Elizabelle:

    Sounds like guilty to me.

    Technically, that would be liable, not guilty.  Guilt is a concept only for criminal trials, and this is civil.

  92. 92.

    Elizabelle

    May 9, 2023 at 2:58 pm

    @Roger Moore:  Yes.  Civil.  So he can’t be a felon.  Yet.  But he’s working up to it!

  93. 93.

    SpaceUnit

    May 9, 2023 at 2:59 pm

    @Roger Moore:

    Can rulings in civil trials be appealed?

  94. 94.

    NotMax

    May 9, 2023 at 2:59 pm

    @bbleh

    “We find damages in an amount of $787.5 million.”

    (Hey, a guy can dream.)

  95. 95.

    Elizabelle

    May 9, 2023 at 2:59 pm

    Jury of six men and three women.  That worries me.

  96. 96.

    Roger Moore

    May 9, 2023 at 2:59 pm

    @Scout211:

    This is worrying to me.  Determining whether someone is liable can be relatively quick; the slow part is determining damages.  If the verdict in a civil trial is really fast, it probably means either that they’re taking the defendant’s side or that they largely accept the damages claim of one side or the other.

  97. 97.

    Elizabelle

    May 9, 2023 at 3:00 pm

    @NotMax:  Yes!!  I wish.

    Are you booking your hotel and renting your wedding wear??

  98. 98.

    Betty

    May 9, 2023 at 3:00 pm

    @Ceci n est pas mon nym: Just watch out for the dive bombing.

  99. 99.

    Another Scott

    May 9, 2023 at 3:00 pm

    @Elizabelle: “non life threatening” can mean lots of things.  Head injuries can be very, very serious and not result in death.

    :-(

    Kinda like “mild” when it comes to COVID-19.  My understanding is that the usual clinical meaning is that it “wasn’t so bad as to require hospitalization”.  Could still be quite nasty, though.

    Here’s hoping she fully recovers.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  100. 100.

    Roger Moore

    May 9, 2023 at 3:02 pm

    @SpaceUnit:

    Can rulings in civil trials be appealed?

    Yes.  Any of the judge’s rulings can be appealed, which could result in a new trial if the ruling is overturned and considered to be important.  And the damages can be appealed if they’re considered to be disproportionate.

  101. 101.

    Elizabelle

    May 9, 2023 at 3:03 pm

    Background from the NY Times:

    The accusation at the heart of the trial that just ended in Manhattan federal court sounds like a classic criminal case — an alleged sexual assault in the dressing room of a luxury department store.
    But the jury of nine New Yorkers were not asked to decide if former president Donald J. Trump was guilty of raping the writer E. Jean Carroll as she testified he did in the mid 1990s. No criminal charges were ever brought.

    Instead, Ms. Carroll sued Mr. Trump for battery and defamation.
    That means the jury was asked to determine Mr. Trump’s “liability” — whether Mr. Trump is legally responsible for harming Ms. Carroll in ways that meet New York State’s definition of battery.
    The jurors began their deliberations just before noon on Tuesday. Their verdicts must be unanimous.
    To be found liable for battery, Ms. Carroll must clear a lower bar than the “beyond a reasonable doubt” standard of a criminal trial. Instead, jurors must find that the “preponderance of the evidence” supports Ms. Carroll’s claim to have been raped, sexually abused or forcibly touched by Mr. Trump, meaning the jury believes the accusation is more likely true than untrue. The jury must also decide how much to award Ms. Carroll in damages if they side with her.
    The jury also examined Ms. Carroll’s defamation claim, stemming from a 2022 post on Truth Social in which Mr. Trump called Ms. Carroll’s case “a complete con job” and “a Hoax and a lie.” The jurors have to decide if Mr. Trump knew what he was saying was false but said it anyway to meet a standard known as “actual malice.”
    Should the jurors find Mr. Trump liable for defamation, they will also assess what, if any, additional damages to award to Ms. Carroll.
    Ms. Carroll has not requested a specific amount of damages she is seeking for her battery claim. Last week, an expert witness called by Ms. Carroll testified it would cost as much as $2.7 million to run a campaign that would repair her reputation.

  102. 102.

    SpaceUnit

    May 9, 2023 at 3:03 pm

    @Roger Moore:

    Oh God.

  103. 103.

    Elizabelle

    May 9, 2023 at 3:04 pm

    @Another Scott:  I am worried she will have vision problems, maybe terrible headaches, and — I hope not — cognitive issues.

    Time will tell.  Stupid, stupid action.   I wonder how young Mr. Yarl is doing, after his shooting injuries.

  104. 104.

    Roger Moore

    May 9, 2023 at 3:05 pm

    @SpaceUnit:

    Just because something can be appealed doesn’t mean the appeal is likely to get anywhere.

  105. 105.

    Quinerly

    May 9, 2023 at 3:05 pm

    @Elizabelle:

    Didn’t worry me. Women can be very judgmental of other women.

  106. 106.

    NotMax

    May 9, 2023 at 3:06 pm

    @Elizabelle

    Nope and double nope.

    They’ll be just as hitched regardless of what I’m wearing. And an hour and change drive back (mostly Palisades Parkway, which is bucolic) sounds like heaven to me; something never get to do in one go on this island.

  107. 107.

    Scout211

    May 9, 2023 at 3:07 pm

    Judge issues decorum warning for Carroll v. Trump verdict:"No shouting. No jumping up and down. No race for the door."— Adam Klasfeld (@KlasfeldReports) May 9, 2023

  108. 108.

    Elizabelle

    May 9, 2023 at 3:07 pm

    @NotMax:  Enjoy that drive!  (Not snarking.  I enjoy driving, too, at least not in heavy traffic.)

  109. 109.

    Elizabelle

    May 9, 2023 at 3:08 pm

    Rape, no.  Yes on sexual abuse.

    $2 million damage.

    So far, the only charge he has skated on is the rape charge.

  110. 110.

    SpaceUnit

    May 9, 2023 at 3:08 pm

    @Roger Moore:

    Is it the same judge presiding over the current trial who has to grant the appeal?

  111. 111.

    Kirk

    May 9, 2023 at 3:09 pm

    @Roger Moore:

    but the Rio Grande valley- a poor rural area- does pretty well also.

    I suspect there is a lot of cross-border medical activity with Mexico happening here.

  112. 112.

    Elizabelle

    May 9, 2023 at 3:10 pm

    Defamation, Malice, injured.  Yes.

    $3 million 20 thousand so far.  Also 1.7 million for reputation repair

  113. 113.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    May 9, 2023 at 3:10 pm

    Jury rules E Jean Carroll was not raped, was sexually abused and that trump injured her

    $2M in damages

    trump did defame her by calling her a liar

    statement was made with actual malice

    EJC was injured by trump’s malicious lies

    $1M damages, plus $1.7M in ‘repuational repair’

    trump was wanton and willful in his defamation

    punitive damages $280K

    per Katie Tur getting tweets from the courtroom

  114. 114.

    Elizabelle

    May 9, 2023 at 3:11 pm

    Punitive damages:  $280,000.

    So, heading towards $5 million for fines??

  115. 115.

    Elizabelle

    May 9, 2023 at 3:12 pm

    Congratulations to E. Jean Carroll.  Courage carried you through.

    Thanks to the jury, for making their decision.

  116. 116.

    David Anderson

    May 9, 2023 at 3:12 pm

    Look at the Upper Plains and the Mountain West (esp. Utah)…. very conservative/Republican but not huge drops in life expectancy. It is a Southern/Appalachian thing and where it is not Southern, it is still very racialized/minoritized.

  117. 117.

    Elizabelle

    May 9, 2023 at 3:17 pm

    @David Anderson:   Southern culture gone nationwide. Life is cheap, and treating whole classes of people without respect.

  118. 118.

    Steve in the ATL

    May 9, 2023 at 3:24 pm

    @WaterGirl: related: passed by https://electricfetus.com/ yesterday.  Love that place!

  119. 119.

    Captain C

    May 9, 2023 at 3:27 pm

    @sdhays:

    The Republican Party is actively arming drug gangs! And proud of it! And then they complain about crime from Mexico!

    This would be a really good line of attack from a Democratic-aligned SuperPAC.  Point out how many easily-bought guns wound up in the cartels’ hands last (year/decade/whatever).

  120. 120.

    What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?

    May 9, 2023 at 3:27 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: Yes places like Nebraska…the thing about the deep South is there’s a large and very impoverished African American population and their life expectancy is probably so atrociously low it drags down the average for the entire State. I’m guessing a white Alabaman has about the same life expectancy as a white Nebraskan. Maybe not…leading a dissipated lifestyle of tobacco use and hard drinking is not unknown amongst the white population of the deep South so maybe they’re wrecking their health on a grander scale than the average Nebraskan but I’m guessing it’s mostly that they immiserate the black population to the point where they don’t live very long.

  121. 121.

    Tony G

    May 9, 2023 at 3:31 pm

    Needless to say, most of the short-life-span areas are in the former Confederate States of America.  More evidence that a culture of stupidity and hatred hurts everybody, not just the people who are the objects of the hatred.

  122. 122.

    Another Scott

    May 9, 2023 at 3:31 pm

    @David Anderson: I briefly poked around the GHDX data cited in the graph. There didn’t seem to be a quick way to spit out a similar graph, but I’d like to see:

    (Pre-COVID)
    1) Principal cause of death by county (heart disease, accidents, various cancers, “old age”, etc.)
    2) Obesity rates by county
    3) Smoking rates by county
    4) Per-capital alcohol consumption by county

    Stuff like that.

    Someone here remarked recently that a friend of theirs left the USA to retire in Central or South America and died a few months later from a US-survivable heart attack because they couldn’t get to a decent hospital in time.

    5) Time for county resident to reach nearest emergency room at a hospital.

    Like others, I suspect the biggest correlating factor will be per-capita or household income, but there’s obviously more going on. Like – is the local government representative of the people (do the realtors and car dealers run the local government (and prevent raising taxes) while the city’s water system crumbles??)?

    Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  123. 123.

    Roger Moore

    May 9, 2023 at 3:36 pm

    @SpaceUnit: ​
     

    Is it the same judge presiding over the current trial who has to grant the appeal?

    If you want the same judge to rethink an order, it’s more like a reconsideration; an appeal is always to a higher court. What often happens with an appeal, though, is that the higher court says a decision was made wrongly and then hands the case back to the original court with instructions to change the ruling and proceed from there.

  124. 124.

    Captain C

    May 9, 2023 at 3:36 pm

    @Roger Moore:

    Yes.  Any of the judge’s rulings can be appealed,

    IANAL but wouldn’t TFG have to put up a fairly substantial bond if he appeals?

  125. 125.

    Roger Moore

    May 9, 2023 at 3:39 pm

    @David Anderson:

    Even in Utah, though, there are some urban vs. rural discrepancies.  The counties around SLC and St. George do better than the more rural areas in the rest of the state.  Of course SLC is actually fairly liberal.  Utah would probably vote one or two Democrats to Congress if it weren’t so heavily gerrymandered.

  126. 126.

    Ken

    May 9, 2023 at 3:47 pm

    @JoyceH: changing the child labor laws to allow children as young as 14 to work in “roofing, construction, and demolition”. What could possibly go wrong?

    Rhetorical question, obviously, but I note that roofers are always way up there on the “most dangerous professions” lists. Much higher than police officer, for example (though crossing guards are higher than police).

    Snarkily, I’ll add that it will get even worse once they ban vaccines, and tetanus makes its comeback.

  127. 127.

    Ken

    May 9, 2023 at 3:57 pm

    @Elizabelle: There were only three houses on that deadend rural road.  One was the child’s; one was some relatives of hers; one was Mr. Stand Your Yard.

    I wonder if there’s some protective custody going on here.  At the least, Mr. SYY better hope he never has a heart attack in his front yard, in full view of his neighbors. They’ll bring lawn chairs and popcorn…

  128. 128.

    RevRick

    May 9, 2023 at 4:01 pm

    I suspect that you could replicate this map throughout the history of our country, even dating back to colonial times. The Puritans of New England, for all their faults, were very much of the attitude “we’re all in this together,” and put heavy emphasis on education, with the result that through much of the early days of our Republic those states excelled at most measures of civic wellbeing. Despite the fact that in real dollar terms Maine and Rhode Island and much of upper New Hampshire and Vermont are the poorest states in our nation, they fare much better than those regions where it’s everyone for themselves. Culture matters. And racism clearly kills.

  129. 129.

    CliosFanBoy

    May 9, 2023 at 4:09 pm

    Looking at the Virginia part of the map it looks like the worst areas are
    1. the poor Black areas in the SE
    2. The poor mountain white areas of the SW where coal used to be king.

    The best areas, Northern Virginia (natch), college towns, and cities will well–off suburbs and exburbs.

    So, there’s some correlation politically, but it looks mostly economic & education.

  130. 130.

    CliosFanBoy

    May 9, 2023 at 4:13 pm

    @RevRick:

      There have been several well-received pop-sociology books that talk about that. There were different settlement patterns among the various European colonies (not just English) and you can still see their influences today. Of course, there’s a multitude of other factors at play, but it is interesting.

  131. 131.

    ksmiami

    May 9, 2023 at 4:19 pm

    @CliosFanBoy: “Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life, son.” – Dean Wormer FTW

  132. 132.

    Ohio Mom

    May 9, 2023 at 4:50 pm

    In college I took a class out of the urban planning department. The very first session was dedicated to the formation of the universe, our solar system and our Earth. Left me a bit befuddled, didn’t we all already know this and what did that have to do with the history and design of cities?

    It turned out that the professor was a big believer in geography and geology being destiny. That infamous red cresent across the South is where a certain type of soil — great for growing cotton — is found. And it’s there because of geologic history, the details of which I have long forgotten.

    That soil has just about dictated everything that has happened upon it — it’s the reason for cotton plantations, which is the reason slavery became so widespread and entrenched in the area, which is the reason for the area’s ongoing wealth disparity and poverty, discriminatory politics, and all the social ills often noted, from shorter lifespans, obesity, higher domestic violence and divorce rates, and the list goes on and on.

  133. 133.

    Ohio Mom

    May 9, 2023 at 4:52 pm

    @RevRick: I bookmarked this recently, it is what you said in more detail:

    https://nationhoodlab.org/a-balkanized-federation/

  134. 134.

    Matt McIrvin

    May 9, 2023 at 6:04 pm

    @What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?: Further inland, in Appalachia, it’s also a lot of poor white people dying early.

  135. 135.

    Bupalos

    May 9, 2023 at 6:04 pm

    @Parfigliano: This is a really sad response. The map is essentially a map of poverty. And yes, in conjunction with other factors, poverty can cause the kind of brain worms that allows backwards-looking, reality-denying, Trump-sucking Republicans to dominate.

  136. 136.

    Rebels Dad

    May 9, 2023 at 7:16 pm

    It’s not just policies that are driving this gap. The entire Gulf Coast from Houston to New Orleans is a clusterfuck of refineries and other petrochem infrastructure. Cancer rates are astronomical there, and of course state and local governments don’t care. It’s hitting home for me. I lost my oldest sister to laryngeal cancer in 2011, my oldest brother has colon cancer and non-Hodgkins lymphoma right now, and my remaining sister might have either leukemia or myeloma. All of them are in their late 50s and early 60s, and have lived the majority of their lives close to refineries. One more reason why I had to get tf out of Texas.

  137. 137.

    Another Scott

    May 9, 2023 at 10:56 pm

    @Rebels Dad: ICYMI, ProPublica.org – The Most Detailed Map of Cancer-Causing Industrial Air Pollution in the U.S. (from November 2021, updated in March 2022).

    That story did not get enough visibility. I hope the EPA and the HHS are paying attention.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

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