(Image by NEIVANMADE)
ETA 9:59 PM EDT: I have an engagement all day tomorrow that will last until at least 8 PM EDT. So the update will be late – most likely after 9 PM EDT and will be brief.
We now return you the regularly scheduled post that was posted earlier.
AFP video journalist Arman Soldin was killed by the Russians in eastern Ukraine.
We are devastated to learn of the death of AFP video journalist Arman Soldin in eastern Ukraine today.
All of our thoughts go out to his family and loved ones. pic.twitter.com/T2y449o1Ry
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) May 9, 2023
France has opened a war crimes investigation:
PARIS @AFP — France opens war crime investigation into AFP reporter's death: prosecutors
— Jonathan Brown (@jonathaneebrown) May 10, 2023
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
It is in Ukraine that the world will see what Europe is capable of – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
10 May 2023 – 22:25
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
Briefly about this day, about our actions.
Our international block is working vigorously and thoroughly with partners on new defense packages for Ukraine. New decisions are already at the working level. More protection for our skies, more opportunities for our defense and movement on the ground. I held several meetings today where we discussed all this. And we expect appropriate steps from our partners in the near future.
Let us not forget for a single minute that every day of the occupier’s presence on our land is a temptation for him to think that he will succeed. He will not! We must return freedom, security and Europe to all Ukrainian land – to all European land. We will do it! We will not leave a single piece of our land to the enemy – tyranny will not reign anywhere. And I thank our partners-leaders, all partner countries, each and every one who helps us increase our strength and make Ukrainian defense even more active.
Today, I held a very informative meeting with government officials on programs to restore our territory and Ukrainian life after hostilities and the war in general. We are working on all aspects of recovery, and each of them is in a new security format. Economy and industry, defense industry, energy, infrastructure, education, social sphere, healthcare sector, including the rehabilitation component… All that needs to be built, what the world is ready to invest in, what will give Ukraine and Ukrainians reliable protection and steady development of our social capital.
Now, in May, we will finalize the specific points of these state programs, and in June we will start practical work with our partners on our plans, including both the reconstruction of critical systems here and now and the strategic transformation of our country. I am confident that our reconstruction project will give impetus to the development of at least our entire region – following Ukraine and all our partners who will cooperate with Ukraine.
It is here, in Ukraine, that the world will see what Europe is capable of. Here, in Ukraine, we will have the maximum of Europe in Europe – the maximum possible of what European values are capable of, what European and global cooperation is capable of.
Step by step, based on the resources we have now, we are implementing programs for the ongoing recovery of our country. In particular, today “eVidnovlennia” public service has been launched. It is aimed to support people who need to repair their homes or apartments after war damage. Already today we have received a significant number of applications in Diia. In total, we are talking about hundreds of thousands of damaged objects. Moreover, we have to fulfill this task also for those of our people who were able to restore their damaged housing on their own. Equality in assistance is very important, and we need an appropriate algorithm. The next step is compensation for lost housing. It will also be implemented.
Of course, today I communicated with our commanders and intelligence chiefs. The situation on the frontline is an obvious first priority.
Today, I also signed new decrees on presenting our warriors with state awards. The 10th separate mountain assault brigade. The 14th, 28th, 53rd, 59th and 72nd separate mechanized brigades. The 3rd separate assault brigade. The 27th rocket artillery brigade. The 112th separate territorial defense brigade. The 67th separate infantry battalion. The 65th military mobile hospital. These are the Lyman direction, Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka direction, Shakhtarsk direction.
In total, today’s decrees honor 266 of our defenders. The bravest, the most worthy – those whose lives are the life of Ukraine, our beautiful and unbreakable Ukraine.
Glory to all our warriors who are now in combat, at combat posts and on combat missions!
Glory to every Ukrainian family that has raised such sons and daughters!
Glory to Ukraine!
This is heartbreaking. Yet this is so powerful and so important for everyone to watch.
Thank you @Imaginedragons! pic.twitter.com/6AY67hoHGo— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 10, 2023
Bakhmut:
Several of you, as well as Cole via text, asked about the reports trickling out that the Russians had been pushed back in Bakhmut:
The news, prior to the confirmation, was originally announced by Wagner mercenary group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 9, 2023
The Bakhmut counter strike pic.twitter.com/SclTTAbUah
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 10, 2023
A video of a russian soldier in #Bakhmut signaling he wants to surrender. 🇺🇦 drops a note to him – follow the drone. He hesitates, then follows, despite 🇷🇺 shooting him in the back. In the end – he is in 🇺🇦 custody. #HumanityFirst #StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/7dOmP8P0Yf
— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) May 10, 2023
Bakhmut: russian "warriors of light" are shelling Orthodox churches with the blessing of the Moscow patriarch. pic.twitter.com/PVUkS4powS
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 10, 2023
Russian T-90M tank destroyed in Bakhmut. https://t.co/dVsQHPzK8r pic.twitter.com/r2f3mPTxtd
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 10, 2023
"All against all…complete disunity of the front" – Russian volunteer Anastasiya Kashevarova explains what happened between Wagner and the 72nd Brigade in Bakhmut in a long Telegram post.
She says Russian Forces are not allowed to communicate with Wagner. Wagner was forced to… pic.twitter.com/rtZyJlj8x1
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) May 10, 2023
Here are the screen grabs from Dmitri’s tweet above so you don’t have to click through:
And more from Prigozhin about Bakhmut:
Another summary from Prigotzhin on Bakhmut as of 10 May: no ammunition given despite the instructions of the past few days; says Bakhmut was necessary for the Russian army to regroup. Does not add much context as to why the shell hunger might be happening apart from… pic.twitter.com/PLHjwPXlDj
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) May 10, 2023
Here’s the full text of Dmitri’s tweet:
Another summary from Prigotzhin on Bakhmut as of 10 May: no ammunition given despite the instructions of the past few days; says Bakhmut was necessary for the Russian army to regroup. Does not add much context as to why the shell hunger might be happening apart from “competition”.
Finally, adds that Russian flanks in Bakhmut begin to crumble (hello to the 72nd Brigade).
Here’s the screen grabs of the translation:
And a note from Dmitri on his translations:
Several readers expressed concern about Ukrainian soldiers using "gay slurs" in recent videos I published, asking them to be changed. However, translation is translation, the point of it is to interpret the meaning of a word as close to the original as possible, and trust in a…
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) May 10, 2023
Full text: WARNING!!!! OFFENSIVE LANGUAGE!!!! WARNING!!!!
Several readers expressed concern about Ukrainian soldiers using “gay slurs” in recent videos I published, asking them to be changed. However, translation is translation, the point of it is to interpret the meaning of a word as close to the original as possible, and trust in a translator is earned through being precise.
But it is also important to understand the context of translation, and in this case, this gay slur is not used to describe someone’s sexual orientation. This word stems from decades ago, it is widely used in Eastern Europe, but nowadays it is most often used to grievously insult someone (although it is still used in the original meaning).
In fact, this slur “pidor/pidory” is a generalisation that Ukrainians picked up for Russians in this conflict, and is convenient to use in a rush. It’s fairly similar in its intent to the Russians calling Ukrainians “ukrs/hohols”.
However, it is most certainly not used to describe someone’s sexual orientation on the battlefield: after all, no one’s walking around asking captives about their sexual orientation just to use this slur exclusively for them.
Ukrainians are a modern, respectable society, which they have proved on numerous occasions in the past 15 months and much earlier.
The closest equivalent to this slur in the English language would probably be “motherfucker” or “cunt”, with the latter being particularly suitable due to having few syllables.
While I am not a big proponent of replacing words in translations, I may stick to one of the equivalents in the future, just in case readers don’t know the context.
I have not posted a couple of his translations exactly because of this. While I get the context, I knew not everyone would and didn’t want to unnecessarily upset any readers or commenters.
I do on occasion want to necessarily upset some commenters…
Zaporizhzhia:
Previously, the priority was forming storm and assault units with the best personnel.
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 10, 2023
Tallyho!
Major Vadym "Karaya" Voroshylov known as Ghost of Vinnytsia: «One plane can destroy entire units of the enemy. This is incredible power and strength.»
Ukraine’s ace pilots need F-16s!
📷 Mariana Shafro pic.twitter.com/e18GHIn49X
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 10, 2023
The combat flight of our Su-25 pilot in the east of Ukraine pic.twitter.com/uib9XvftjR
— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) May 9, 2023
Lord, guard and guide the men who fly
Through the great spaces in the sky,
Be with them always in the air,
In dark’ning storms or sunlight fair.
O, Hear us when we lift our prayer,
For those in peril in the air.
A bit more about Arman Soldin:
Heart-warming ❤️
🇫🇷journalist @ArmanSoldin and his team rescued a hedgehog from a trench in 🇺🇦
The team found it barely alive, gave it some water and took it to a safe place. They fed the animal and let it recover for a couple of days before releasing it into the wild🦔 pic.twitter.com/qzulIZvULR— UAnimals.ENG 🇺🇦 (@UAnimalsENG) May 5, 2023
That’s very heartwarming to hear !
— Arman Soldin (@ArmanSoldin) May 8, 2023
We’re going to finish with two pieces of analysis regarding Russia. The first is from the Ukrainian officer who tweets as Tatarigami. First tweet in the thread followed by the rest from the Thread Reader App:
🧵Today, I want to discuss and share interesting details about the inadequate training of russian troops. This insight is based on my conversations with multiple officers across the frontlines in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts who shared with me details regarding prisoners of war. pic.twitter.com/WVjvnMUic6
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) May 10, 2023
2/ While russian training was subpar in comparison with NATO armies even before the invasion, the quality of their readiness is much lower even if we compare it with February 2022. Several anecdotes indicate that some soldiers haven’t even fired a single shot prior to deployment3/ The tactic remains unchanged – hours, or even days, of artillery barrages, occasional airstrikes, and mortar fires followed by what can be called “meat waves” – assault groups comprised of soldiers who lack training beyond basic, if any at all.4/ The process of deterioration of the russian army is accelerated by appearance of dozens of so-called “PMC”, which are not really PMC but more of a privately-sponsored units by various businessmen, politicians and corporations.5/ Based on confessions, it is evident that some units receive much better training than the rest of the russian army. Some Wagner units (not convict units) look down on mobilized units and do not trust them, creating animosity between the units.6/ However, despite these issues, the russian army is still capable of advancing. So, the question is, how? The answer is quite simple – russia still maintains a significant advantage in artillery means and ammunition.7/ Despite russia’s ammo shortages, their artillery remains the main threat, as it allows even the lowest graded soldiers to take over positions that were turned into rubble by intense artillery fire.8/ It is crystal clear that Ukraine can defeat such an army if we have enough means. While some people continue to claim that Ukraine has everything it needs, this is far from the truth.9/ The reluctance of some countries to provide aid is staggering as this is the only thing that prolongs this war – the insufficient number of resources that hinders our ability to liberate our territories.
The second is from Greg Yudin, who is the Head of the Political Philosophy at the Moscow School of Social and Economic Sciences. First tweet below followed by the rest of the thread from the Thread Reader App:
Defeat. A thread 1/23
— Greg Yudin (@YudinGreg) May 9, 2023
One important indicator for me is how often people in Russia talk about possible defeat. I must confess that it happens now really often, which is a dramatic turn from the early months of the war 2/23For quite a while, nobody took the word “defeat” in their mouth, even if they considered the invasion to be an insane choice. That has changed 3/23While majority in Russia remains detached and prefers to avoid bad thoughts, those who dare to think are increasingly accepting that the war is likely to end with a defeat 4/23That applies perhaps mostly to those who tend to support Putin in this war for one reason or another (mainly because they fail to make difference between Putin’s and national interests). This is a mood I notice in people from various industries, all of them rather elevated 5/23Similar mood flows over into the public sphere. Both Prigozhin and Kadyrov play their games, but between the lines they let out the shared assessment of the situation. Kadyrov says “it is very difficult”, while Prigozhin warns of a looming catastrophe 6/23The whole public fight between feudal warlords makes it extremely difficult to imagine this army achieving any success. Their language projects defeat, and this is what I often hear – “I don’t know how this can possibly end with a victory” 7/23A recent confession from Andrey Kovalev, one of the major Russian developers, is indicative, too. Putin was feeding the rich people with the stories of how he is going to win it in the end, and now they seem to lose confidence 8/19
I am no military expert, but I have a better view of morale in the Russian army. It is very low, and the two motives to go to war remain (1) rare chance to earn some money and (2) submissiveness 9/23I wouldn’t be surprised if the Russian army collapses after a couple of setbacks. I have no idea how likely that is (the Ukrainian offensive capabilities are often debated), but I consider it to be a distinct possibility 10/23The state-controlled media are preparing the audience for possible setbacks. meduza.io/en/feature/202… 11/19
‘If Ukraine succeeds, it should be explainable’ How Moscow is instructing Russian propaganda outlets to cover Kyiv’s looming counteroffensive — MeduzaThe Ukrainian military is widely expected to launch its spring counteroffensive any day now, though what approach it will take and how the situation will unfold is anyone’s guess. According to Zelensk…https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/05/03/if-ukraine-succeeds-it-should-be-explainablePutin’s ability to recruit more soldiers remains significant but limited. Importantly, it is affected by the situation on the battlefield. Nobody wants to be part of a losing army, but that matters more for the sort of motivation dominant among the Russian soldiers 12/23These are all early signs, of course, and Putin will be constantly killing the flames. In order to translate into action, these attitudes should rely on some vision of how the future might look like 13/23That poses a difficult question. How a defeat might look like? 14/23Putin has been pushing the idea that a defeat will mean the invasion of Russia, the country dismembered, the Russian women raped, children slaughtered and crucified, the foreigners ruling the land. Even Kovalev’s ends with stressing that defeat would be a catastrophe 15/23Many Russians are convinced that the country is mortally threatened by the NATO forces. Several times I was told by the people I respect as cold-headed that this is all extremely bad, but what can we do – “if we don’t take Kyiv, they will take Moscow anyway” 16/23The conversation about defeat is taking off in Russia, and it is important to untie the idea of defeat from the fears of catastrophe. Whose defeat it will be? This is another question 17/23While there is no doubt that Russian people will take significant responsibility for this brutal assault on Ukraine – it is still important to discuss the differential responsibility. The defeat of Putin’s atrocious plans should be separated from the defeat of Russia 18/23Russia has already lost when this war was launched – an unspeakable damage has been done to the country. Ending this war by recognizing internationally recognized borders of all countries is not a defeat for Russia, it is a beginning of the revival 19/23It is no coincidence that Zombie TV tries to convince the audience that “everyone will go to the Hague is we lose”.
20/23
This is a lie, however, that shouldn’t be supported. THEY will lose, and they will go to hell, and they know it. While WE have already lost when this war started, and we will have to rebuild the country and start restoring relationships with neighbors 21/23This new emerging attitude offers new opportunities. Instead of trying to figure out what part of Ukraine will be enough for Putin (my answer is always Dresden), it is high time to think what are the costs and opportunities for Russia after Putin’s defeat and removal 22/23This is a task for both the conversation between Russians and an international dialogue. There is no doubt Putin will do everything possible to preclude this conversation. But the sooner the solution emerges, the faster this war ends with justice 23/23
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
— Patron (@PatronDsns) May 10, 2023
Just spring and me. Here I say hello to everyone and thank you for your support❤️ Grateful lick to you👅 pic.twitter.com/H7rQpWck78
— Patron (@PatronDsns) May 10, 2023
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Знайомо?😅 #песпатрон
The machine translation of the caption is:
Sound familiar? 😅 #песпатрон
Open thread!
cain
Great post – nice to see the regular army and the asshole wagners going at it.
japa21
Looks like the weather is looking up. Like the sunflowers, the Ukrainians will rise up. The land will be theirs again and Sasha and his family will rebuild, though they will never be the same.
I think Yudin may be a little too hopeful of what can happen on the Russian side post defeat.
Thanks again, Adam.
Damien
Adam, do you feel this push out if Bakhmut is one of the unexpected things you mentioned the other night? Or do you think it was inevitable after they were unable to capture it by Victory Day?
How much of the Bakhmut siege is performative is what I’m asking I guess?
Roger Moore
The stuff about Russian units being unable to cooperate reminds me of the stuff you hear about the Wehrmacht not cooperating well with the Waffen SS. The way I’ve heard it described is that the Russians, Americans, British, Canadians, Free French, Free Polish, etc. managed to cooperate better than the the different branches of the German military.
It’s a classic approach of dictators. One of their biggest fears is their own military, who clearly have the power to overthrow them if they can agree on a replacement. To forestall this, the dictator intentionally sets up rivalries within the military so they’ll mistrust each other enough to refuse to cooperate in a coup. That’s what all this stuff about Wagner and the other PMCs sounds like.
smith
@Roger Moore: And I’m sure that works fine until they try to go to war.
Chetan Murthy
@Roger Moore: This guy (“Georgi” sp?) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90SETgN9uTk seems to clearly believe that Prigo is teeing-up a civil war, b/c he’s out of other options. Gotta say, I don’t believe him, but maybe after a week more of craziness from Prigo, I might start. Specifically, he calls out the fact that Prigo was told by the MoD (basically) “we forbid you to retreat; if you do, we’ll try you for treason, fucker” and he still didn’t get more shells (and Georgi makes a decent case that in fact Wagner was getting crazy amounts — more than other parts of the front — before.
It’s interesting, and if we weren’t watching UA folks die as a result, it’d be fun to watch.
P.S. In the previous day or two of videos he starts developing the theme (and shows some of his evidence), but in the link above, he lays it all out.
Adam L Silverman
@Damien: I honestly do not know.
Grumpy Old Railroader
Hey! That is why we pay you the big bucks. To speculate for us.
Gin & Tonic
On that series of Dmitri tweets and the possibly offensive word pidoras (пидорас): yes, in current colloquial usage it’s probably closest to “faggot,” but as Dmitri notes, it’s really a general-purpose insult, not (IMO) directly intended to be insulting as to sexual orientation. What’s more interesting to me, without doing a really deep dive into etymology, is that it appears directly derivative from the English “pederast” (which, of course, comes from the Greek for a well-known form of relationship that existed in antiquity.)
The Moar You Know
That’s a correct answer. I have a co-worker who is halfway buying the Carlson/Putin line, but is “concerned”. She got a little bit more concerned when I pointed out that if he isn’t stopped in Ukraine, he’s gonna take the whole Eastern Bloc back and for a little extra, take Germany.
If it weren’t for the NATO backstop, it would take very little to do exactly that. Germany has very little military to fight with and zero will to do so. All those vaunted Leopard tanks they made, they sold. They have nothing if Vlad decides to “go there”.
That got my co-worker’s attention. Her family is German.
Bill Arnold
Thanks for that Greg Yudin thread.
I am slightly concerned that Jake Sullivan and his camp have not internalized the reality that Greg Yudin describes. (It is real, even if there are conflicting internal-Russia narratives(“realities”) with some truth to them.)
(I.e. hoping they are not in an echo chamber reinforced with their own pride.)
He actually publicly posted the words “Putin’s defeat and removal”.
zhena gogolia
@japa21: Yudin is nobody’s Pollyanna.
YY_Sima Qian
@Damien: My uninformed speculation is no. If the Ukrainian Army has intended for this area to be a main effort, I think we would have see rapid exploitation of the Russian collapse at a section of the front in the past 24 hrs., Ukrainian maneuver units pouring through the gap, & possibly a replay of Kupyansk. Perhaps the Ukrainians were equally surprised to see the disarray.
We may see more of these kinds of developments as Ukraine launches its offensive, though the Bakhmut sector may be particularly prone due to the heavy presence of Wagner & its well known frictions w/ the Russian Army.
Jay
Jay
Chief Oshkosh
Adam, thanks for all the work.
Carlo Graziani
Great haul tonight, Adam.
Yudin’s thread is indeed one of the highlights. He wonders about a collapse of the Russian army, which seems very perceptive to me. We already witnessed a model for that possible collapse in 2022, near Kharkiv, when the Russians were caught by surprise and basically ran away. This was in contrast to the actions in the Kherson area, where the Russians had plenty of time to realize the colossal error that they had made in crossing the Dnipro in force, and managed some kind of fighting retreat instead of a rout.
It would not surprise me at all if the UA General Staff were studying the Kharkiv case, and thinking hard about how to reproduce the sort of conditions that cause the Russians to run. Surprise, of course, but also exploitation of divided command and of the widely-separated, non-mutually communicating or reinforcing theatres that the Russians chose for their Winter operations.
Adam L Silverman
I just added the above as an update to the post:
Have a good night.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani:
Yudin’s sentiments becoming more prevalent (even if not often explicitly expressed) in Moscow & St. Petersburg is a pre-condition to Russia eventually being willing to come to the negotiation table.
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: I believe that the personality conflict between Prigozhin and MOD is over-emphasized as an explanation for the Wagner shell famine. If the Russians had enough shells for all their 4 (!) separate theatre requirements, I have no doubt that Wagner would get its share.
But they don’t have enough, because the Russian Winter campaign appears to have formed by accretion rather than from any coherent plan (and because the Russian military has the worst logistics of any advanced military). So in conditions of scarcity, the knives come out. Nevertheless, the interesting and useful fact is the scarcity, rather than the knives. I bet that UA general staff has also been thinking hard about Russian logistical dilemmas, and how to make them worse.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: Georgi describes one of Prigo’s videos where he goes on walkabout to the various locations of his troops, artillery machine gunners grenade launchers mortars etc. He cites the example of the artillery where they say that this one howitzer team needs 200 shells a day, and of course they’re not getting it.calculating up to what the entire artillery park in Ukraine would need that comes out to 400,000 shells a day. Obviously impossible and this Georgie sites as evidenceThat Wagner was getting more shells than other units. He then repeats the same exercise with a mortar station andIf I remember correctlygrenade launchers.
He claims that the reason Mizintsev was hired by Wagner is that he had been helping to oversupply Wagner with shells, and getting hired by them was better than being shipped off to some far away location, and so it was kind of a reward. Again I don’t know if this is all correctBut it seems plausible.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: Yes, but also: “Success has a hundred fathers, but failure is an orphan” (JFK, on the Bay of Pigs fiasco).
If the feelings that Yudin describes are really becoming widespread, then there can be no doubt that there must also be contagion in MOD, FSB, and even among the Siloviki. And this is potentially very destabilizing for Putin’s grip on power: someone will have to pay for the failure, historically, modern Russia has not been kind to it’s failed leaders.
Post-Putin Russia may be closer than we imagine. No doubt it would not be led in a manner much more congenial to us if it suddenly should happen. But it would certainly be cripplingly weakened, and that has to be scored a win.
John Cole
I hate the fucking Russians and what they are doing so much it makes me feel uncomfortable thinking about what I want to happen to them. I don’t like having those thoughts.
Kyle Rayner
This turned out to be a good night to finally poke my nose in and read what’s happening. Recently, I’ve been too worried to even try opening the site.
Thanks for writing.
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: In a sanely administered military operation, each theatre commander would get allocated resources proportioned to the importance of the theare to the overall war, and to its likelihood of success. By the latter criterion, the Bakhmut theatre deserves perhaps equal priority with operations in other theaters, but by the former it deserves to be written off altogether—zero supplies.
Prigozhin said so himself in that incoherent screed that he posted: “Bakhmut has no strategic importance” (only to add later that he wants supply priority to “finish off” the strategically unimportant Bakhmut campaign). And he believes that Wagner created a meat grider for the UA, instead of the other way around! The fact that he was allowed to squander manpower and supplies all Winter ought to be a scandal, if Russians were capable of being scandalized by such things.
This guy is a gift to the Ukrainians. I really hope that he and Wagner remain a factor in the war.
Hangö Kex
@John Cole: Having such thoughts is human, feeling uncomfortable about it is being a decent one.
Carlo Graziani
Hi, @John Cole:
We struggle too. It’s difficult to safeguard one’s humanity in the face of such depraved actions, which tempt all of us to imagine bestial retributive violence.
If it’s any consolation, BJ—your creation—is an extremely rare case of on-line discussion of the war with real boundaries on inhumanity, which have largely arisen by the consensus of its very humane readers. That is the reason I prefer to come here than anywhere else to understand the war. I wouldn’t presume to speak for others, but I would be unsurprised if this were true for almost everyone else here.
So, however you did this, we owe you. Thanks.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
@John Cole: I struggle with these feelings myself. I don’t hate Russians & I do not like it when they’re called orcs because dehumanization is incredibly dangerous. I even struggle not to have horrible thoughts about Putin & his ugly little cabal. They are human, after all.
Then again, I struggle with guilt, that I am living in relative comfort & safety, while ordinary Ukrainians are in so much pain, & danger. It isn’t fair, it isn’t my fault, I am doing what I can to help but the guilt lingers.
Then there’s thoughts like I hope the death of that wonderful French reporter will finally wake Macron the eff up to what #Ukraine 🌻 is dealing with. Gods,I have rarely been so angry as I am with the various governments supplying Ukraine with weapons.😡
Thank you for all you do, Adam, & if you really need a night off, take it. You deserve it.
Chetan Murthy
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom:
Here is a silver lining to that cloud: the CEE countries have been stalwart AF. The Nordics too. So yes, many of the other western countries, we can be frustrated with (including the US). But Ukraine has stalwart allies who won’t desert them and will do what is needed.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani:
+1
Redshift
@Chetan Murthy:
If Tatarigami’s assessment that the only way the RU forces have been advancing is by massive artillery barrages, that seems highly plausible, since the Wagnerites seem to be the only ones who have been advancing even a little.
Ruckus
@Carlo Graziani:
It seems like this place is adults talking about a subject that no one actually wants to discuss, which means that people are careful about how and what they discuss. I can’t recall anyone trying to sell this war. We discuss the war and many here have some experience having been in war zones so they have a better understanding of the concept. But to me it is that most of us are actual adults and acting like it.
Chetan Murthy
@Redshift: yep it’s not just Tatrigami’s assessment, it seems to be the general consensus of all observers who aren’t in Russia’s corner.
Lyrebird
@Carlo Graziani:
Hear, hear!
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom:
re: “orcs” – just a ramble:
I agree about the dangers of dehumanization. For myself, maybe this is splitting hairs or maybe not, I am less likely judge what people say who are under bombardment, people who know folks who have been tortured, whose children are scarred, etc. I haven’t walked in their shoes, and the calamity is not over. As a Tolkein fan, I hear that term as less dehumanizing than what some of the YouTubers say (insect names etc). There again, if somene’s on active duty, unlike some of y’all here, I do not know what it takes to stay sane while in combat . Different than my view here.
Not assuming my view should be your view. I really appreciated your comment.
I try to think, what will end this war sooner? What will lead to a more sustainable peace?
Jay
@Lyrebird:
Ruzzia being defeated,
Ukraine being restored to its 1991 borders,
Reparations,
War Crime trials
Princess
“X is of no strategic importance” was a popular line on the allied side during WWI when they lost or were losing ground. It upset me to read over and over that Bakhmut was of no strategic importance because I regarded it as propaganda to console for future defeat. So it brings me joy to see the Russians now seem to be saying it.
Also, I know zero about modern warfare but the kind of infighting and disdain for each other on the Russian side forcibly recalls crusade chronicles when each private Christian force was suspicious of the next one. It didn’t work out well for any of them at the end.
Geminid
I was checking out Noel Reports and @Tendar and saw that CNN reports that Great Britain has delivered Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine. It is an air-launche cruise missile with a range of ~300km that carries a 450kg warhead.
Evidently there has already been testing of SU-24 fighter bombers that were fitted to carry the Storm Shadow, so it sounds like the missile can and will be used soon. The British reportedly have specified that the missile be used only on occupied Ukrainian territory.
I wonder if the Kerch Bridge qualifies as occupied Ukrainian territory. It looks like an aircraft would not have to cross the existing front line to get within range of the Kerch Bridge. Its western approaches certainly are on Ukrainian territory, and blasting the road and train spans there would shut the bridge down for a while at least.
There are plenty of other prospective targets. The number of Storm Shadow missiles provided is not known, but according to Wikipedia Britain has contracted to purchase 700 to 1000 of the missiles for its own stocks, so there are plenty available.
Carlo Graziani
@Geminid: Very interesting. Between Storm Shadow and GLSDB, it sounds as if some considerable deep strike capability has been built up, but not yet employed. I’ll put $1 on “shock and awe” salvos at high-value strategic targets in the first hours of the offensive.
As to Kerch, the US has publicly stated that it views Crimea as occupied Ukrainian land, and that any Russian facilities there are legitimate targets. I presume the UK concurs. So I would expect the Western concrete supports of that bridge to be demolished with no objections from NATO. The Dzhankoi railyard, which all Crimean rail lines pass through, is also a highly likely target, as is the M18 highway bridge across the Chongar strait.
I wouldn’t sell any insurance to the Starobilsk railyard, either.
Feathers
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: I’ve also noticed that some of the people using orc-talk are also ones who tone police the comments of others in the name of their mental health. It’s not a good thing for the reader or the writer.