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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 443: Friday Night Update

War for Ukraine Day 443: Friday Night Update

by Adam L Silverman|  May 12, 20238:07 pm| 27 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Last night commenter Car Chasm asked for a referral to my nutritionist. So here it is. Her name is Liat Golan, her practice is named BeeWell Nutrition. All of her official contact info is at that link. I cannot recommend her highly enough.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Attempts to circumvent sanctions should be defined as one of the gravest crimes against international law and peace – address of Ukraine’s President

12 May 2023 – 18:19

Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!

Today is a sanction day. Five sanctions packages have been approved, which we prepared very carefully these weeks in the NSDC, the Cabinet of Ministers, the Office, and our secret services.

The first is a package related to Zaporizhstal. We block the influence of the terrorist state on this company, which existed thanks to various front and offshore persons. The shares controlled by Russia through one of the systemic banks will be confiscated and will work for the sake of Ukraine and Ukrainians.

We won’t leave any link of the terrorist state in Ukraine that it can use against our state, against our economy or against our people.

In addition, sanctions packages have been approved that continue our course to isolate and block the Russian defense industry.

Hundreds of individuals and legal entities of the terrorist state and those connected with Russia are becoming targets for global isolation. We are working very actively with our partners so that all those who actually produce this aggression, who give weapons, ammunition, equipment and technologies into the hands of terrorists – so that they are all crushed by the world.

I’m thankful to everyone who helps Ukraine put pressure on Russia for this war, as well as block the terrorist state’s attempts to circumvent sanctions. I am sure this should be defined as one of the gravest crimes against international law and international peace – trying to circumvent sanctions introduced to limit the resources of aggression, or assisting in these efforts.

I held a meeting of Staff of Supreme Commander-in-Chief today. There were important reports by the commanders of task forces. I will especially note a report of General Syrsky and General Tarnavsky, commanders of the Khortytsia and Tavria air defense units, respectively. There was a report by Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny, Minister of Defense Reznikov, and Minister for Strategic Industries Kamyshin.

What is important to understand now? The occupiers are already internally ready for defeat.

They have already lost this war in their minds. We must put pressure on them daily so that their sense of defeat turns into their escape, their mistakes, their losses.

I thank each and every one who destroys the enemy! I’m thankful to everyone who, despite any difficulties, returns our land to Ukraine! We are preparing to add even more weapons for you, warriors, to have even more opportunities to defeat the aggressor and restore peace.

I spoke today with British Prime Minister Sunak. Thank you, Rishi, for your continued support and the steps which make it clear to the world that the UK will always lead the way.

We discussed our current weapons cooperation, our next defense cooperation, and the diplomatic steps we must take together to bring our shared victory closer.

To guarantee: whoever is the aggressor against the free world, he will end up with the same disgrace as the Kremlin.

Glory to all our soldiers currently in battle, at combat posts and on combat missions! I thank everyone who trains our fighters! I thank everyone who treats and restores Ukrainian soldiers after injuries!

Glory to Ukraine!

A bit more from President Zelenskyy about his call with PM Sunak:

Had a phone call with UK Prime Minister @RishiSunak. Thanked for the significant enhancement of our capabilities with long-range Storm Shadow missiles and other irreplaceable military assistance. We discussed further defense cooperation and coordinated our positions on the eve of…

— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) May 12, 2023

Here’s the full text of the tweet:

Had a phone call with UK Prime Minister @RishiSunak. Thanked for the significant enhancement of our capabilities with long-range Storm Shadow missiles and other irreplaceable military assistance. We discussed further defense cooperation and coordinated our positions on the eve of upcoming international events. In particular, we need clear signals about Ukraine’s future with #NATO.

Bakhmut:

The Battle of Bakhmut pic.twitter.com/Ru7bxykNSX

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 12, 2023

6/https://t.co/QFzwW7Igzh

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 12, 2023

Film of UAF 2-day counterattack northeast of Bila Hora (SW Bakhmut front) + trolling Prigozhin.
Includes a tank going bunker-crushing.
3rd Assault Bde as part of Tactical Group Azov claim: 64 KiA RuAF (another 87 WiA or still to be clarified)
5 PoWs,
destruction of BMPs/mortars. https://t.co/btdqMRVOfd pic.twitter.com/ZStyG2xUJu

— Dan (@Danspiun) May 9, 2023

Agree. UA seems to be attacking with forces that are unlikely to be related to the main effort, hence hoping to fix Russian units at Bakhmut and roll back gains over the past few months, while setting the conditions for a major offensive that probably will take place elsewhere.

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) May 11, 2023

I don’t know if there are breakthroughs and all that. I’m not there. But Russians’ behaviour on public channels is very similar to what was happening during successful regroupings from Kherson and Kharkiv. They never panicked unless they had a reason to. They have a lot of eyes…

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) May 11, 2023

Here’s the full text of Dmitri’s tweet:

I don’t know if there are breakthroughs and all that. I’m not there. But Russians’ behaviour on public channels is very similar to what was happening during successful regroupings from Kherson and Kharkiv. They never panicked unless they had a reason to. They have a lot of eyes in the field, the military reporters, soldiers. I take it all with a grain of salt but I also don’t see a good reason for them to spread negativity without a good reason.

From The Washington Post:

KYIV, Ukraine — They started shelling at sunrise.

In the dawn haze, under the cover of their own artillery, small groups of Ukrainian soldiers advanced toward a Russian position on the outskirts of the embattled city of Bakhmut.

Drone footage had identified an avenue of attack on Russian lines on the outskirts of the besieged city. Intelligence suggested the Russians were so focused on the intense street battles playing out inside they were not expecting an assault in this direction, according to two battalion commanders in Ukraine’s Third Assault Brigade who helped plan and execute the operation and spoke by telephone.

For nine months, the bloody fight for this eastern city has dragged out inch by inch, with massive casualties on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides. Yegeveniy Prigozhin, the high-profile commander of the mercenary Wagner Group, promised to deliver the city by May 9, Russia’s hugely important Victory Day celebration. By the end of April he claimed his forces had taken nearly the whole city.

Yet instead of giving Russian President Vladimir Putin a victory to announce in his speech in front of the Kremlin on Tuesday, Ukrainian forces scored a rare advance this week south of the city and held fast in the city center. The two commanders shared details of the surprise offensive, which Ukrainian ground forces commander Oleksandr Syrsky confirmed was successful. The Washington Post could not independently verify the details of the fighting.

On May 6, dozens of Ukrainian troops advanced on the Russian foxholes knowing they would “have to fight for every single pit,” said Rollo, the 29-year-old commander of the brigade’s first assault battalion, who spoke on the condition he would be identified only by his call sign.

The battle lasted for 12 grueling hours but by sundown, the troops from Wagner Group broke and fled, leaving five dead behind.

“They tried to resist. They fired back. Others escaped, and then some were killed,” Rollo said. “But in the end, those who remained alive just ran away.”

Two days later, after withstanding Russian artillery counterattack on the newly seized position, the Ukrainians advanced again — moving through farmland in three columns of tanks and American-made armored personnel carriers. Once within earshot of the enemy, they spent hours negotiating with dozens of Russian soldiers, urging them to surrender.

“We were screaming at them, ‘Surrender you fools, you morons!’” Rollo said. When some Russian troops kept shooting, “Ukrainians used the APCs to just push them back and later stopped and asked again, ‘Would you like to surrender now?’”

Some agreed, but others shot back or ran into a nearby forest, he said. By afternoon, dozens of Russians were dead. Five were taken prisoner, Rollo said, including two who had to be treated by Ukrainian medics. Most of the soldiers belonged to Russia’s 72nd Motorized Rifle Brigade.

“We were knocking out Russian positions and connecting our liberated areas,” said Slip, 32, commander of the brigade’s second assault battalion. After some Russian troops were killed, others became “demoralized and some of them also just ran away,” he said. Neither commander would disclose their own casualties.

By May 9 — the same day Prigozhin had pledged to take control of Bakhmut — Ukrainians had retaken more than a square mile of territory south of the city.

“I feel pleased … that the enemy didn’t have this opportunity to feel good or have victory on this day,” Rollo said.

Much more at the link!

Luhansk:

Yet another unacceptable and totally unprovoked Ukrainian escalation against Russia’s peaceful military infrastructure facilities in Luhansk.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 12, 2023

Two strikes on the occupied city of Luhansk, which is well outside HIMARS range. Perhaps the first use of the Storm Shadow missiles? Major Russian military HQ is based there. Photo from local social media. pic.twitter.com/0PpXy9f0X8

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) May 12, 2023

reportedly American made decoy missile ADM-160B was used pic.twitter.com/DVbE9FTJCg

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 12, 2023

Dmitri from War Translated makes an interesting point:

The important thing about demilitarisation of a plant in Luhansk is that the city is in the rear, and didn’t see much action in the past year, unlike Donetsk Oblast. This might as well be preparation for a move towards the city.

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) May 12, 2023

Maryinka:

A year-and-a-half ago, this was a charming small town. Today Maryinka is an apocalyptic hellscape. Homes, coffee shops, kindergartens, schools and hospitals – the russians turned them all into heaps of rubble and ashes. This insatiable horde won’t stop until it is stopped by the… pic.twitter.com/hSYEHRmSrx

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 12, 2023

Here’s the full text of the MOD’s tweet:

A year-and-a-half ago, this was a charming small town. Today Maryinka is an apocalyptic hellscape. Homes, coffee shops, kindergartens, schools and hospitals – the russians turned them all into heaps of rubble and ashes. This insatiable horde won’t stop until it is stopped by the civilized world.
🎥 @Liberov

Poland:

Poland announces it has transferred 14 MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine. It brings the total number of warplanes sent to Ukraine to 28.

They will work nicely with F 16 pic.twitter.com/7W4CbVzbtJ

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 11, 2023

We also have more on the Russian missile that crashed in Poland in December 2022. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

Reader, you probably don't know this, but in Poland the biggest scandal rn is the fact that on 16th of December a Russian missile fell 15 km from the NATO training centre in Bydgoszcz and the government decided to quiet it out of embarrassment. 1/6 pic.twitter.com/L8mSXpqiyR

— Olga Byrska 🇺🇦 (@OByrska) May 12, 2023

We wouldn’t have known all this if a random person hadn’t found it in the forest late April and reported this to the police. All the govt officials and forces of order were so tight-lipped about it that media started conducting their own investigations, and it turned out that 2/6 
not only was it a missile, but also the one used only by Russians these days: Ch-55 (Kh-55 in English). According to the Polish Air Force Institute of Technology had to come from the east, as there is no place in Poland that either stores or has those missiles. Apparently, as 3/6Image
the RMF FM radio reports, the Polish forces were observing the missile but lost it out of sight and even tried to find it, but after a couple days abandoned the search. What’s even more interesting, they, according to the Ministry of Defence, haven’t reported the incident 4/6 
to anyone, and the entire thing came out 3 weeks ago, when a random person reported seeing parts of the missile. Like, the PM didn’t know anything about that. So now in the govt there’s a blaming game, and Minister of Defence is trying to put the blame on generals who deny 5/6 
the wrongdoing and said that they *did* report this incident to their supervisors in MoD. I am really curious to see who is gonna end up fired, and I hope that it will be the chief of defence for covering it up. 6/6 

Here’s an update on the Ukraine interception of the Kinzhal last week:

US officials believe the Russians picked up on signals that are emitted from the Patriot, allowing it to be targeted. Ukrainians fired multiple missiles from the Patriot at different angles to intercept the Russian Kinzhal missile.

— Alex Marquardt (@MarquardtA) May 12, 2023

We have clarification on the reported Eurovision ban on President Zelenskyy:

President Zelensky's press secretary denies Eurovision speech ban reports: "The Office of the President of Ukraine did not contact the organizers of Eurovision with any request for a virtual appearance by Volodymyr Zelensky during the final or at any other stage of the contest."

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 12, 2023

LTG (ret) Hertling has an interesting thread about the strategic calculus that goes into deciding when an offensive should start. For full disclosure, I know LTG Hertling. He was the Commanding General of 1st Armored Division when I was the Cultural Advisor to the Commander of the 2nd Brigade Combat Team/1st Armored Division and deployed in Iraq with them. I never worked for him directly. First tweet from the thread with the rest from the Thread Reader App:

In discussing the upcoming Ukrainian offensive yesterday with a group of govt officials, one asked me “when will it start?”

I said: “in the attack, it starts when the commander feels it’s the right time…that’s an advantages of the offensive.”

I then explained RSOI. 1/10

— MarkHertling (@MarkHertling) May 11, 2023

RSOI is Reception, Staging, Onward Movement & Integration.

When units enter a combat zone, they are “received” in country, “staged” to move forward, then “moved” to the combat area, and then integrated into a larger unit.

How is this related to Ukraine, you ask? 2/ 

Remember that Ukraine’s army has been receiving all kinds of different equipment from many different countries, and they are training at different EU training areas on new skills with that equipment.

Some training takes longer than other, depending on the kit. 3/ 

When finished in, say, Germany, Poland, Estonia or other countries, they travel back to Ukraine & are “received” & “staged” with other types of partner units.

Once all together, they “move” forward, closer to the front lines, & are “integrated” into even larger units. 4/ 

Now, multiply this by the estimated 9 Brigades – armor, engineers, artillery, logistics, staff & commanders, etc. (many of whom are coming together for the first time) – and it’s easy to understand why…it takes as long as it takes.

Commanders assess when they’re ready. 5/ 

I once heard a Sergeant Major say “RSOI is converting piles of puzzle pieces into combat ready units.”

Spot on.

BTW, these “puzzle pieces” are being put together all across the 400+ km front lines, at points of Ukrainian general’s plan. 6/ 

A few days ago, Czech President Pavel publicly told Zelenskyy “don’t be pushed, attack when you’re ready.”

I’m sure others have said the same to Gen Zaluzhnyi, chief of Ukraine’s Army.

A mentor once told me (as I prepared a division for combat) “go slow to go fast!” 7/ 

Ukraine’s army will attack when they’re ready, at time and place(s) of their choosing, & they will be successful in their operation to regain sovereign territory, transitioning to offense takes significant preparation, coordination & synchronization.

This ain’t a video game. 8/ 

In 2007, I had the honor of commanding the Germany-based @1stArmoredDiv.

We were the first “plug & play” division…we deployed with our division staff but all our combat brigades came from 7 different divisions in the US & our support units came from 13 different states. 9/ 

Each unit’s RSOI execution during this “surge” was critical to getting forces into the fight.

This execution is what the Ukrainian Army is doing now.

Those wanting the offensive to start need to be patient.

It will go slow, then it will go fast. 10/10

Reuters scored an interview with Ukraine’s anti-corruption prosector. Here are some excerpts from their reporting:

KYIV, May 12 (Reuters) – Ukraine’s crackdown on corruption has raised eyebrows in recent months by going after respected former technocrats who helped repair the country after the political upheaval of 2014.

Chief anti-corruption prosecutor Oleksandr Klymenko is aware of public pressure to put more prominent names or current officials behind bars.

But he says the rule of law must prevail as Ukraine strives to meet European Union demands to stamp out high-level graft.

“For us, the deciding factor is the supremacy of the law,” he told Reuters in an interview in his office in Kyiv.

“We want to show results both for society and for Ukraine’s partners, since we understand they’re following our work,” added Klymenko, who was appointed last July.

Brussels has made fighting corruption a precondition for Kyiv to join the 27-member EU. Despite progress in recent years, Ukraine ranks 116th out of 180 countries in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index.

Anti-graft authorities say they are working hard to put that right. Earlier this month the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU), whose cases Klymenko’s office prosecutes, announced it would hire 20 more investigators.

Last week, a court ordered Odesa Mayor Henadii Trukhanov into pre-trial detention on embezzlement charges after a petition by Klymenko’s prosecutors.

The case was launched in 2018 but had since bounced from court to court and faced numerous procedural delays. Trukhanov denies wrongdoing and has been released on bail.

Others targeted by Kyiv’s anti-graft bodies include a former deputy defence minister and former head of the State Property Fund.

More at the link!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There is no new Patron tweet, but we do have more Mustelidae combat operations to report on!

/2. After regrouping, the badger made another attempt to storm the Ukrainian positions. pic.twitter.com/kciwbQgm92

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 12, 2023

There is a new video at Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Нова серія мультику вже чекає на твій перегляд!🤗 Лінк у шапці профілю🫶🏻

♬ оригінальний звук – Patron_official

Here is the machine translation of the caption:

A new episode of the cartoon is waiting for you to watch! 🤗 Link in the profile header 🫶🏻

And here’s the new episode!

Here’s the summary below the video:

Premiered 10 hours ago

Every superhero must have a rule! It should be so cool and wise that it inspires others to do great things. Tom decided to find such a rule for Patron, but to do so, they had to travel to the… past! In episode 6 of the animated series Patron the Dog you will see little Patron and his father. You will also hear the voices of famous Ukrainians: Mykyta Dobrynin, Yevhen Synelnikov, Kyrylo Hanin, Oleksandr Pedan, and POSITIFF (Oleksiy Zavgorodnyi).

The project is implemented with the support of USAID and in partnership with UNICEF. It is also implemented in cooperation with the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in Chernihiv Oblast.

Donate to the official Patron’s Fund to help Ukrainian sappers and/or animals: https://send.monobank.ua/jar/2owjL6dFRP

🐾Buy stickers with the characters of the animated series: https://patronshop.com.ua/uk/product/…

🎑 An incredible poster with the signatures of the main actors and Patron: https://patronshop.com.ua/uk/product/…

💯% of profits from merchandise is transferred to help the sappers.

And if you’re curious, here’s who all is involved, also from the summary below the video:

😊 Artists, composers, producers and other talented people who created this cartoon:

Animation director: Anastasia Falileieva

Author of the idea and scriptwriter: Sasha Ruban

Executive producer: Julia Grebeniovska

Assistant producer: Anastasia Pavlova

Creative producer: Dmytro Korzhenevskyi

Composer: Zakhar Bo

Sound engineer: Andriy Bilanenko

Main soundtrack: Karta Svitu

“Patron the Dog” Actors:

Mykhailo Karpan (Patron)

Dmitro Gavrilov (Tom)

Nikita Dobrynin (Patron’s father)

Evgeny Sinelnikov (Trainer)

Kirill Ganin (Shepherdess)

Alexander Pedan (Doberman)

POSITIFF (Alexey Zavgorodny) —

(Little dog)

Background artists:

Nika Kulik

Valeria Pogrebnyak

Olena Onyshchuk

Anna Vedernikova

Animator: Sofia Zorska

Animators:

Anastasia Falileeva

Klim Klimchuk

Maxim Romanov

Sasha Matushak

Natalia Skryabina

Marianna Zubal

Olena Onyshchenko

Konstantin Cherednichenko

Translators:

Denys Tkachivsky

Polina Kyrylova

Ksenia Korshunova

Plastic Bag Studio ©

Not Sleeping Patron LLC, 2023

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    27Comments

    1. 1.

      Anonymous At Work

      May 12, 2023 at 8:14 pm

      How will we know when the UA offensive has started, or will we only be able to know AFTER it’s started for a week or so?

      Also, given the loud kvetching and moaning about Russian artillery support, would an offensive to overrun artillery positions and supplies be a main offensive objective?  Are the Russians low enough that losing pieces and ammo a major blow?

      Reply
    2. 2.

      CliosFanBoy

      May 12, 2023 at 8:17 pm

      the Clumsy Badger tried to take the Ukrainian fortified positions,

      Clearly, Germany needs to send some dachshunds….

      Reply
    3. 3.

      Adam L Silverman

      May 12, 2023 at 8:17 pm

      @Anonymous At Work: I do not know.

      Reply
    4. 4.

      Anoniminous

      May 12, 2023 at 8:34 pm

      Institute for the Study of War predicting the Russians have deployed all their troops.  Meaning the hundreds of kilometers of fortifications they’ve dug are basically unmanned and the minefields aren’t covered by fire making the whole thing pointless.  It also means when the Ukrainians break through there’s no reserves for a counter-attack.
      so …

      ISW assessed on April 23 that “the generally exhausted condition of [Russian] troops and the apparently disorganized and fragmented deployment pattern in some areas will likely pose significant obstacles to Russia’s prospects for defending critical sectors of the frontline.”

      Altogether: the Russians don’t have enough infantry and the ones they have aren’t worth shit.

      Reply
    5. 5.

      Alison Rose

      May 12, 2023 at 8:52 pm

      After watching videos like the one from Bakhmut in Ponomarenko’s tweet, I’m always amazed by the fortitude and boldness it requires to go through this kind of hell, day after day after day, never knowing what is going to happen. It also reminds me of the time when an army recruiter tried to reel 18-year-old me in to his office, and I literally laughed in his face. I fully believe that women can be kick-ass soldiers. But not this woman. Putting aside my miniature stature and multiple health issues, I know my own mind well enough to know I would not last five minutes in these kinds of situations.

      United24 has a video up about Wagner and Bakhmut and all that, and on the thumbnail it reads, “WTF is going on with prigozhin”, which is exactly the question I’ve wondered many times.

      Also, this was lovely: Zaluzhnyi attended the wedding of a soldier:

      Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, has visited the wedding ceremony of a soldier who used to be a photographer in his civilian life.

      27-year old Maksym Alieksieiev and his wife, 23-year old Kateryna Polishchuk, shared a moving photo on Facebook.

      Their marriage certificate has been signed by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – in person.

      “We finally did it: we created a family. We really wanted this to be done by a special person. And it came true – Mr. Zaluzhnyi agreed.

      Now this legendary person, who is a role model for me personally – and, I am sure, is a role model for others as well – stands at the origins of our family. We are really grateful to Valerii Zaluzhnyi for agreeing and making this moment truly incredible,” Maksym wrote.

      Thank you as always, Adam.

      Reply
    6. 6.

      Mallard Filmore

      May 12, 2023 at 8:54 pm

      A bit of culture here in this segment of a YouTube video.

      link:  https://youtu.be/UkZf42xnm0c?t=1110

      title:  “Ukrainian breakthroughs in Bakhmut area | Russian soldiers are panicking | Ukrainian update”

      subject:  a UA soldier’s artwork carved into the mud wall of a frontline trench.

      Reply
    7. 7.

      Anonymous At Work

      May 12, 2023 at 8:59 pm

      @Anoniminous: “That they can tell”.  UA is proving to be tricky but RU less so.  We’ll have to see.  I think the logistics of a major breakthrough might end up defeating a UA offensive more than RU forces.

      Reply
    8. 8.

      Anoniminous

      May 12, 2023 at 9:02 pm

      Prigozhin is demanding 80,000 artillery shells per day. Russia only makes ~2.4 million shells a year. At 80,000 shells/day Wagner would go through a year’s production in 30 days. Further, being generous, let’s say an artillery tube will last 3,000 fires before needing to be replaced. At 80,000 shells/day that’s roughly 27 tubes/day or 9,855 tubes/year. If they make 3,000 tubes a year I’d be astonished.

      At the moment Russia stills holds a lead in artillery. At the rate they are using their backlog supply of shells and artillery pieces that lead is going to lessen as the year goes on.

      Reply
    9. 9.

      Anoniminous

      May 12, 2023 at 9:08 pm

      @Anonymous At Work:

      I think the logistics of a major breakthrough might end up defeating a UA offensive more than RU forces.

      I agree. In World War II the four major breakthroughs: Barbarossa in 1941, Fall Blau in 1942, Normandy in 1944, and Bagration in 1944 were all stopped by logistics.

      Reply
    10. 10.

      dmsilev

      May 12, 2023 at 9:15 pm

      @Anoniminous: Ah, but don’t forget the North Korea supply chain of shells…

      Reply
    11. 11.

      Another Scott

      May 12, 2023 at 9:25 pm

      DW.com:

      Rheinmetall founds joint venture to make and repair tanks in Ukraine

      Rheinmetall has founded a joint venture with Ukrainian state-owned conglomerate Ukroboronprom to build and repair tanks in Ukraine, the Handelsblatt daily reported, citing the German arms maker’s chief executive.

      “The contracts have been signed,” CEO Armin Papperger told German newspaper Handelsblatt, adding that the cooperation would cover the maintenance and repair of armored vehicles in Ukraine, while the construction of tanks would be prepared in parallel.

      Rheinmetall will hold a majority stake of 51% in the new company and will provide the management. The German company expects to sign contracts for two more joint ventures in the coming days, for ammunition and air defense, according to Handelsblatt.

      Interesting.

      Egypt has/had a plant for making M1A1 tanks (from 2019). Maybe Lockheed-Martin can set up an F-16 joint-production line in Lviv…

      Cheers,
      Scott.

      Reply
    12. 12.

      Anoniminous

      May 12, 2023 at 9:30 pm

      @dmsilev: ​
       

      At 80,000 shells/day the Russians would burn through 1,000,000 shells in 13 days.

      My point, which I didn’t make clear, is Prigozhin and reality have an adversarial relationship.

      Reply
    13. 13.

      Another Scott

      May 12, 2023 at 9:33 pm

      Kinda related to what Ukraine and the rest of us have been going through the last several years, and a cautionary tale:

      Fudzilla.com:

      Turkish presidential candidate Muharrem Ince withdrew from the race after an alleged sex tape circulated online. Ince claims it’s a deepfake using footage from “an Israeli porn site.”

      Ince, a two-time presidential candidate who also lost to Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2018, pulled his candidacy just days away from Turkey’s most consequential election in a generation saying: “I offered Turkey a third option, a third way. We couldn’t succeed.”

      Deepfake videos have been a key part of Turkey’s 45-day election cycle. Erdogan played a deepfake that claimed to show banned Kurdish militants declaring their support for his main rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu at a pre-election rally last weekend.

      […]

      All of us need to keep our wits about us, and keep our skeptics caps handy.

      Fingers crossed for Kilicdaroglu getting 50%+1 on Sunday and avoiding a runoff…

      Cheers,
      Scott.

      Reply
    14. 14.

      Chetan Murthy

      May 12, 2023 at 10:40 pm

      @Anoniminous: I cannot be the only one who’s hearing Churchill’s voice: “Où est la masse de manoeuvre?” [in France,  right after Hitler’s forces broke thru and sent the French military running (or surrendering)]

      I don’t know  if ISW  is right, but I’ve read here and there that these attacks around Bakhmut are aimed at getting Russia to commit every last man, every last tank, to Bakhmut.

      Reply
    15. 15.

      Andrya

      May 12, 2023 at 10:52 pm

      @Chetan Murthy:  I was thinking of that too.  And the devastating answer from the French generals:  “aucune” (nothing).

      More generally, the collapse of France in the spring of 1940 can be attributed (in my opinionated opinion) to unbelievable incompetence on the part of the top French generals.  (“No need to extend the Maginot line to the sea!” “Lock up Marc Bloch’s reports on German troop movements and don’t let anyone see them!”  “No tank can get through the Ardennes forest, no need to send a tank to check this theory!”  “No need for a strategic reserve!”)

      russian generals are chosen based on two criteria:  1) That they don’t threaten putin and 2) corruption.  I am very, very hopeful that they will show the same (or worse) level of incompetence as the French generals in 1940.

      Someone in the russian MoD has already made one catastrophically stupid decision:  they sent their training people into combat.  Since the dawn of agriculture all farmers have known “you never, ever, ever eat the seed corn for next year”.  Sending trainers into combat is doing exactly that.

      I am extremely hopeful for more russian MoD incompetence.

      Reply
    16. 16.

      Fair Economist

      May 13, 2023 at 12:23 am

      @Anoniminous:

      Institute for the Study of War predicting the Russians have deployed all their troops. Meaning the hundreds of kilometers of fortifications they’ve dug are basically unmanned and the minefields aren’t covered by fire making the whole thing pointless.

      I sure hope so, and I would guess the Russians are overextended, but the ISW has been pretty optimistic in the past.

      Reply
    17. 17.

      oldster

      May 13, 2023 at 12:37 am

      I don’t know nothing about what’s going on. But I have the feeling that movement is starting, and that the long winter is over.

      I hope the counteroffensive will be a smashing success! Slava Ukraini!

      Reply
    18. 18.

      Carlo Graziani

      May 13, 2023 at 2:00 am

      @Anonymous At Work:

      How will we know when the UA offensive has started, or will we only be able to know AFTER it’s started for a week or so?

      Given that we now know that the UA has been supplied with deep strike capabilities, in the form of Storm Shadow and GLSDB glide bombs, and given that there has not been wide employment of those assets: I would expect that the opening move of the UA’s counteroffensive will be deep strikes against Russian logistical and C3 targets, intended to create logistical, communication, and command chaos among the Russians, concomitant with whatever offensive thrust the UA launches.

      Reply
    19. 19.

      Carlo Graziani

      May 13, 2023 at 2:00 am

      @Anonymous At Work:

      How will we know when the UA offensive has started, or will we only be able to know AFTER it’s started for a week or so?

      Given that we now know that the UA has been supplied with deep strike capabilities, in the form of Storm Shadow and GLSDB glide bombs, and given that there has not been wide employment of those assets: I would expect that the opening move of the UA’s counteroffensive will be deep strikes against Russian logistical and C3 targets, intended to create logistical, communication, and command chaos among the Russians, concomitant with whatever offensive thrust the UA launches.

      Reply
    20. 20.

      Carlo Graziani

      May 13, 2023 at 2:00 am

      @Anonymous At Work:

      How will we know when the UA offensive has started, or will we only be able to know AFTER it’s started for a week or so?

      Given that we now know that the UA has been supplied with deep strike capabilities, in the form of Storm Shadow and GLSDB glide bombs, and given that there has not been wide employment of those assets: I would expect that the opening move of the UA’s counteroffensive will be deep strikes against Russian logistical and C3 targets, intended to create logistical, communication, and command chaos among the Russians, concomitant with whatever offensive thrust the UA launches.

      Reply
    21. 21.

      Carlo Graziani

      May 13, 2023 at 2:01 am

      @Anonymous At Work:

      How will we know when the UA offensive has started, or will we only be able to know AFTER it’s started for a week or so?

      Given that we now know that the UA has been supplied with deep strike capabilities, in the form of Storm Shadow and GLSDB glide bombs, and given that there has not been wide employment of those assets: I would expect that the opening move of the UA’s counteroffensive will be deep strikes against Russian logistical and C3 targets, intended to create logistical, communication, and command chaos among the Russians, concomitant with whatever offensive thrust the UA launches.

      Reply
    22. 22.

      Carlo Graziani

      May 13, 2023 at 2:09 am

      Duplicates. Shit, sorry, WordPress glitches. A deletion of 19-21 would be welcome.

      Reply
    23. 23.

      Chetan Murthy

      May 13, 2023 at 2:13 am

      @Carlo Graziani: heh, I’m seeing quadruplicates.  But hey, disks are cheap!  And pixels are nearly freeeeee ….. [insert music notes emojis]

      Reply
    24. 24.

      oldster

      May 13, 2023 at 6:45 am

      @Carlo Graziani:

      I figured the quadruple post was just your contribution to spreading logistical, communication, and command chaos among the Russians.

      Reply
    25. 25.

      Geminid

      May 13, 2023 at 6:47 am

      This morning, German military commentator Tendar (@tendar) reported on a new German military aid package for Ukraine:

          Germany is preparing another massive military package (2.7 billion Euro) for Ukraine. It will contain

      4x IRIS-T SLM firing units

      12x IRIS-T SLS launchers

      30x Leopard 1A5 [tanks]

      20x Marder IFVs

      18x RCH Haubitz [155mm howitzer, self propelled]

      Hundreds of SLM and SLS missiles

      Artillery ammunition

      100x MRAPs

      100x logistical vehicles

      Tendar added that the package also includes 12 more Gephard AA units (with dual 30mm cannon).  Indications are that the 12 IRIS-T SLS launchers may be coming from Sweden.

      The IRIS-T SLS ground-launched missile has a range of 10km,  5km maximum altitude. The medium range IRIS-T SLM has a range of 40km, max. altitude 20km.

      Reply
    26. 26.

      Another Scott

      May 13, 2023 at 8:25 am

      @Carlo Graziani: The hosting folks apparently run batch jobs / backups at 2AM ET.  For 10-20 minutes around then, FYWP gets slow / unresponsive / cranky.

      Cheers,
      Scott.

      Reply
    27. 27.

      Czar Chasm

      May 13, 2023 at 1:04 pm

      Thank you very much!  :D

      Reply

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