(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Together with Ukraine’s partners, we will make the defense against terror as strong as possible – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
16 May 2023 – 22:26
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
First of all, I want to thank all the defenders of our skies. Thank you, heroes!
Eighteen of the eighteen missiles were shot down. That’s why we are constantly working on visits that will bring more opportunities, more Patriot, IRIS-T, Crotale, Hawk, NASAMS systems. Again and again, I thank all our partners in the world who have helped our country with the appropriate air defense systems!
Yesterday, we also agreed in Britain with Rishi, with Mr. Prime Minister, that we would work on a coalition of fighter jets – training, aircraft, results. Yesterday, this was also supported by French President Macron, and today it was supported by Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte. A good start for the coalition! Thank you all!
However, it is important to say one more thing.
We also have to remember how much effort it takes to get such weapons for Ukraine. How much time, energy, arguments, meetings and information work allowed us to build such an air defense system. This is a tremendous job… And I thank each and every one who is involved! At all levels! Day after day, month after month, our team has been working to ensure that we have protection of the sky. We used to hear that Patriots were supposedly unrealistic… And now here they are, Patriots.
And that’s not all we will provide for Ukraine! Together with Ukraine’s partners, we will make the defense against terror as strong as possible.
This morning, the first thing I did after returning from my foreign visits was holding a meeting of the Staff. There were reports from the commanders of operational directions, the Commander-in-Chief, government officials responsible for defense and intelligence.
General Syrskyi’s report on the situation in the Bakhmut sector was very important. I thank all our warriors there, every soldier, sergeant and officer who are doing superhuman things in this area. Well done to all of them! And I would like to especially mention the 5th separate assault brigade, the paratroopers of the “Eightieth” and the warriors of the 57th separate motorized infantry brigade… Your courage, your determination and your success in destroying the enemy is extremely important! Thank you!
Tavria direction… “Seventy-ninth” – the glorious 79th separate air assault brigade, artillerymen of the 55th separate artillery brigade, 74th separate reconnaissance battalion, 116th separate territorial defense brigade, 128th separate mountain assault Zakarpattia brigade… Thank you! Your steadfastness and precision are exemplary.
I took part online in the Council of Europe Summit in Reykjavik today. All the countries of free Europe, the strong leaders of our Europe… I thanked them for their support of our country and urged them to continue to work together one hundred percent so that we are protected – all of Ukraine, all of Europe, the entire free world – one hundred percent. No terrorist missile, no terrorist cannon and no terrorist blackmail should threaten freedom!
I held several meetings today on international events – we are doing everything to give our warriors even more opportunities to make the end of this war with our victory even closer.
We are preparing more news for Ukraine!
Glory to each of our warriors!
Glory to everyone who helps!
Glory to Ukraine!
Russia opened up Kyiv right around/just after I hit publish on last night’s update:
Tonight, russia again attacked Ukraine.
– 6 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
– 9 Kalibr missiles
– 3 ground-launched missiles
– drones
ALL TARGETS SHOT DOWN.— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) May 16, 2023
Assignment:
What we know: 7 super «undownable» «no analogues» hypersonic air-launched ballistic Kinzhal missiles are launched at Kyiv.
Result: All 7 are shot down.
Question: What will these «undownable» Kinzhals be called from now on?
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 16, 2023
Kyiv last night.
Air alert during what was one of the most intense attacks on the capital city since the invasion.🎥 @visegrad24 pic.twitter.com/9ggdNEDWp2
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 16, 2023
Lieutenant Colonel Rostyslav Lazarenko, a Ukrainian military pilot, finished his 300th combat sortie. This is the record number among Ukrainian Air Force pilots.
📷@Liberov pic.twitter.com/OX6BOTBMXa
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 16, 2023
And I’m old enough to remember some folks saying that Patriots would be too complicated for the Ukrainian military to master.
Yeah, sure, my ass.— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 16, 2023
Kyiv has been silent on this today. We were given firm denials in the morning. “No comment” in the afternoon and this evening. Plenty of ignored calls and texts. https://t.co/iD5sM0MwNd
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 16, 2023
Bakhmut:
A State Department spokesperson: “We are aware of the reports of the death of a U.S. citizen in Bakhmut and are seeking additional information. Our ability to verify reports of deaths of U.S. citizens in Ukraine is extremely limited.” https://t.co/eh7KQ75Lqx
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 16, 2023
In video from Bakhmut, Prigozhin surveys the front with Wagner Group forces and displays the body and document of an American volunteer named Nicholas Maimer who was killed by Wagner forces while fighting for Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/yLuh3DmoLk
— Jack Margolin (@Jack_Mrgln) May 16, 2023
Maimer was a Green Beret veteran and an Idaho native. Here are some of his comments about his choice to volunteer from last year. Rest in power. pic.twitter.com/i4Vk0NRBoo
— Jack Margolin (@Jack_Mrgln) May 16, 2023
CNN has some information regarding the Ukrainians use of their newly arrived Storm Shadow missiles:
Ukrainian forces have begun using long-range “Storm Shadow” missiles provided by the UK to strike Russian targets, two US officials and a Western official familiar with the matter told CNN Tuesday.
A spokesperson for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense declined to comment.
The Storm Shadow is a long-range cruise missile with stealth capabilities, jointly developed by the UK and France, which is typically launched from the air. With a firing range in excess of 250km, or 155 miles.
CNN first reported last week that the United Kingdom had delivered multiple “Storm Shadow” cruise missiles to Ukraine, giving the nation a new long-range strike capability.
CNN’s Tim Lister contributed to the reporting
It has been a very, very, very long day today, so that’ll do it for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns Команда❤️ #песпатрон
Here is the machine translation of the caption:
Team ❤️ #песпатрон
Open thread!
dimmsdale
Hmmm, will I be the FIRST of tonight’s “THANK YOU ADAM”S? we’ll see. Your reports are must reads, and I appreciate your sacrifice in compiling all this information and publishing it for us. Godspeed!
S Riches
Thank-you Mr. Silverman. Your updates are so informative. Slava Ukraini!
Andrya
I haven’t said “thank you” recently, so tonight is a good time. You aren’t just informing me, you are informing my entire social network. Slava Ukraini!
Alison Rose
Dang. So how many rungs down the ladder has the “second army” fallen by now?
I’m curious to hear thoughts from anyone with relevant knowledge/experience on Christopher Miller’s tweet, about Kyiv’s changing responses/non-responses regarding the possibly damaged Patriot system. I don’t know enough to understand the extent of the situation or why they might keep mum about it.
I don’t know if the subtitles are accurate on this adorable video of a child “calling” the Ukrainian forces, but it’s cute as heck anyway. “Powerful cats” indeed!
Thank you as always, Adam.
japa21
There are really only two places I go for updates on Ukraine. Obviously this is one of them. I appreciate that Adam does not just willy-nilly pass on “info” without knowing if it is confirmed. And if he gives us something that turns out wrong, he is the first to correct it.
IOW, in Adam I trust.
gwangung
Information is a foundation of wisdom and Adam has been a badly needed source of it.
And it’s a thing that can be repeated and ne’er worn out…
Jay
@Alison Rose:
latest reports are that the Patriot was hit by falling debris.
Good chance it’s just minor damage, akin to scuffed paint or a dent in the bodywork, but as a complex, interconnected system, everything needs to be inspected and tested, that takes time.
Betty
I was happy to see Erin Burnett on CNN do a pretty comprehensive report on Ukraine this evening, including an on the ground report from Nic Robertson and commentary by General Mark Hertling.
Jay
Gin & Tonic
@Alison Rose: Chris is a good reporter, but if he gets a “no comment” and then they ignore his calls, he’s more than smart enough to get the hint. Why should UA confirm or deny anything about the operational status of the Patriots?
Geminid
Rexports are that the UK has as many as 1000 Storm Shadow cruise missiles in stock, and now France has promised Ukraine some of its version, the SCALP-EG. With a warhead of 450kg, this weapon packs a powerful punch.
The Kerch Bridge is within range of a Storm Shadow missile launched from close to the current front line. While the UK and France probably have required that these missiles not target Russian territory, they could be used to destroy the elevated approaches to the bridge on occupied Crimean land. I think they will be, at the right time.
Omnes Omnibus
Let me ask this, what would be the upside of talking about it?
Gin & Tonic
@Geminid: The legal border between Ukraine and russia is at the midpoint of the Kerch strait.
zhena gogolia
Full page ad in today’s NYT calling on us to see Russia’s side of the story, signed by Jeffrey Sachs, Jack Matlock, and others
Alison Rose
@Omnes Omnibus: Right, that was a thought I had, but Miller’s tone in the tweet seemed to imply…something, I don’t know. I figured it was like most things in war, and they don’t want to put out any information that isn’t necessary, but it seemed like he was reading something into it.
Geminid
@Gin & Tonic: Good. That would make repairs more difficult, and as a practical matter impossible..
Alison Rose
@zhena gogolia: “russia’s side of the story” 😑😑😑😑😑
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: Sometimes it seems even smart reporters go into “dog with a bone” mode.
Jay
@Alison Rose:
A Patriot battery consists of 5 different vehicles/trailers that all digitally talk to each other. It’s not a case of it having just an on/off switch. That’s a lot of testing that has to be done to identify any issues or confirm that there are no issues.
Jay
@Alison Rose:
on the bright side, the rapists, mass murderers, kidnappers, toilet thieves and traitors are putting their names out there, front and center.
Gin & Tonic
@zhena gogolia: Jeffrey Sachs. Irony is dead.
Gin & Tonic
@Geminid:
Jay
zhena gogolia
@Alison Rose: The US shouldn’t have expanded NATO!
Is that how NATO works?
oldster
The Kerch Bridge is living on borrowed time. Zaluzhny is leaving it up because right now it is serving as a convenient means of flight for ruzzian interlopers in Crimea who see the writing on the wall. Better to let the civilians flee than to bottle them up and add to the refugee crisis after they retake the peninsula.
On the other hand, once the reconquest gets underway, I don’t give the bridge too many minutes to live.
That pilot on his 300th mission — that seems unprecedented. He has flown 3 days out of 4 since the start of the war. I don’t know how anyone can keep that up. Heroiam slava!
Jay
Jay
@oldster:
Due to Ukrainian disadvantages in the air, most “missions” are probably short ranged and short timed. MIG-29’s and SU-25’s are “short legged”. 3 hours at cruise, one hour flat out.
Rocks
@zhena gogolia: Who are those assholes?
Alison Rose
@zhena gogolia: NATO = Nazis And Trans Only.
Or something.
zhena gogolia
@Rocks: Sachs is the former Harvard professor who helped wreck the post-Soviet economy with his great advice, and Jack Matlock was the perestroika-era U.S. ambassador to the USSR/Russia whom I used to respect.
twbrandt
@zhena gogolia: so glad I canceled my FTFNYT subscription.
YY_Sima Qian
The concerted missile strike against Kyiv will be watched very closely in China, Taiwan, Japan & the US, since the PLA will rely upon on its vast arsenal of ballistic (w/ maneuverable reentry warheads) & cruise missiles to make up the bulk of the opening barrage in any kind of invasion scenario, to destroy C4ISR nodes, SAM/AShM batteries & supply depots, & disable airfields. Taiwan will certainly be struck, & US bases in Japan, Okinawa & Guam too depending on the calculations & posture in Beijing/DC/Tokyo. By the same token, Taiwan is highly dependent on Patriot PAC2/3 batteries to defend against the expected barrage of Chinese ballistic/cruise missiles, but IFAIK the bases on Japan/Okinawa/Guam are not yet well protected.
Even if a Patriot battery near Kyiv was damaged from the Russian strike, the over result is still pretty impressive, given the qty. & diversity of munitions used. Of course, we do not know which targets the Russians were aiming at. If all of the munitions were aimed at the patriot batteries, then the batteries’ survival (if confirmed) would be doubly impressive. OTOH, missiles aimed squarely at the defenses are also easier to intercept. We do not know how well coordinated the Russian strikes were, whether the ballistic/cruise missiles & drones were synchronized to arrive at roughly the same time, which would be much more challenging for any defense. We also do not know what kind of maneuvers the Kinzhals actually performed or whether any decoys were deployed, since Russia has had a tendency to oversell the performance of their gear.
Taiwan has much better air & missile defenses than Ukraine, including domestically developed Sky Bow II/III missiles that are analogous to Patriot PAC 2/3 systems. (Also a far stronger air force than Ukraine.) China also has a much larger inventory to ballistic/cruise missiles than Russia, & far higher capacity to continually build more. (Also a far stronger air force than Russia.) Sites along Taiwan’s NW coast will also have to contend w/ the much cheaper & much more numerous (compared to ballistic missiles) long range rockets launched from across the Strait. Right now Taiwan does not have any cost effective system (such as the Iron Dome) to intercept such munitions, & using the Patriot/Sky Bow to intercept will deplete their stockpiles very quickly.
Ruckus
@zhena gogolia:
I looked them up, they both seem like sweethearts.
That is if you hate a large portion of the humans that live in this country.
Andrya
@zhena gogolia: I wasn’t able to get a complete list of scumbags who signed the ad. There are others?
YY_Sima Qian
@zhena gogolia: Sachs has completely lost the plot the last few years. Is he trying to work off the guilt from successfully convincing Russia to undergo “Shock Therapy” in the 90s, w/ disastrous results?
I think Ukraine went through “Shock Therapy” in the 90s, too, w/ similarly disastrous results. Does Sachs not carry any guilt from that?
Bill Arnold
@Ruckus:
Skimming the edit history on Jeffrey Sachs’ Wikipedia article, it clearly has one or more Sachs-friendly reputation tenders watching over it. (Doesn’t really matter if they are paid or unpaid.)
(Some substantive criticisms have been removed.)
Bill Arnold
@YY_Sima Qian:
A few wikipedia paragraphs of summary for those interested:
Shock Therapy – post-Soviet states
zhena gogolia
@Andrya: Yes, but I never heard of them.
YY_Sima Qian
@Bill Arnold: “Shock Therapy” & its ruinous 1st/2nd/3rd order effects in Russia certainly helped to pave the way for Putin & Putinism.
Jay
Anybody have a link to the ad? A screenshot is fine.
Jay
Lyrebird
@zhena gogolia:
Sachs seems to fit Hakeem Jeffries’ description of MAGA Republicans making shamelessness a superpower. ETA: I know he’s a supposedly liberal professor. Shoe fits.
Something better – if you have time for a brief cat tweet, I would be curious to know if the soldier is speaking Russian or Ukrainian.
Jay
@Lyrebird:
Sach’s is about as liberal as Gobbels.
He was a Reagan/Clinton supply side guy who was called out even back in the day, just another Granny Starver.
Lyrebird
@Jay:
Thanks for the clarification. I know the Shock applied was very Reagan like. And I remember News Hour or other coverage going on and on about how great it was that Russia had capitalism now, and gee they are struggling, but maybe if they had more options on checking accounts, it would get better.
I was young then, not now, and I am still not an economist, but I remember thinking, WTH, checking account options? They don’t have enough FOOD!
YY_Sima Qian
@Lyrebird: Since the early aughts, Sachs has turned into a fierce critic of neoliberalism & US primacy/hegemony as national security strategy. His criticisms were often on the mark, but since the late 10s he has gone off the other edge by become an increasingly ardent apologist for Putin & Xi. I don’t think it should be difficult to do the former w/o falling into the latter, but amazingly many people fail to meet the challenge (we have seen plenty in the US Left). Something about deeply/subconsciously ingrained Manichaean thought process?
Jay
@Lyrebird:
they had enough food, it was just inequally distributed, with much of it sold off by the Ogliarches for cash.
Back in the day, under the same sort of “economic theories”, I didn’t have enough work. I didn’t have enough cash, school became either unaffordable, or restricted, (not enough classes, teachers or positions for those who needed them), housing was unaffordable, (26% mortgages),
food wasn’t a problem. There was tons of it in dumpsters.
Remember when Food Banks were rare, and now they are a staple?
zhena gogolia
@Lyrebird: Ukrainian
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Sach’s killed more Russians than Hitler, and for longer.
Chetan Murthy
@Jay: Sachs certainly didn’t do any good in Russia. But OTOH, from everything I’ve read, the result was pretty much foreordained. The KGB-connected heavies were going to snap up all the industries as they got privatized, and that was going to happen regardless of what the West wanted. I remember Masha Gessen writing about this: how St Pete’s mayor (who seemed to be a good guy early on) turned out to want to wet his beak and then some. The best-case outcome was massive oligarchies running the country; as it turns out, they got really unlucky and got another KGB-trained dictator. But really, it was never going to be a good outcome.
For Russia to have a good outcome, it will have to fragment, so that the bad guys in any one successor state aren’t so powerful that they can steal with impunity. And perhaps (just perhaps) if Russia fragments, all their neighbors can help the pieces do better. Perhaps.
Lyrebird
@zhena gogolia: Thanks!
And I hope you enjoyed seeing those Defense Cats.
G&T explained the other day that Ukrainian and Polish are closer as languages than Ukrainian and Russian. I was surprised, not that I disagree, but with my tourist Russian I can understand a bit of Ukrainian, and Polish sounds more different.
Anyhow, if you are still reading the thread, many thanks to you and to G&T and other readers for filling us in.
Jay
Carlo Graziani
@Jay: OK, this is a bit over the top.
Sach’s advice to the Yeltsin government was high-profile in the US, but irrespective of its merits was ultimately totally irrelevant, and had zero impact on Russian economic development post-Soviet collapse. The controlling factor that dominated the political and economic dynamics was the utterly corrupt manner in which Soviet state assets were devolved upon the first generation of oligarchs, who hoovered up everything of any value. These people were either securocrats or had securocratic support, earned through quid-pro-quo arrangements.
The idea that somehow neoliberal interference with these processes made matters worse is like claiming that cow farts aggravate hurricanes.
Carlo Graziani
@Carlo Graziani: I see that Chethan got to the point first.
Andrya
@Chetan Murthy: Timothy Snyder’s lecture series on the history of Ukraine is posted on YouTube, and they are really good. (Well, of course they are really good, it’s Timothy Snyder.) One of his points is that most European countries, in the early modern period, underwent a process where, to begin with, the king could do anything he wanted. Then, the nobles got some rights. Then, that was extended down the social scale, eventually to commoners. Western Ukraine was part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, so it went through this process, and thus acquired an appreciation for the rule of law.
russia never did. Tsar Nicholas II (in my opinion the stupidest man to ever rule a large country) could do anything he wanted. Stalin and his successors could do anything they wanted. And now putin can do anything he wants. For russia to have a good outcome, it would need to come to respect the rule of law- as a basic assumption that hardly anyone questions. I don’t see that happening in the foreseeable future.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
Sach’s et al, (EU) did great in Poland. It wasn’t just money and subsidies, a huge chunk of the support was legal reform and anti-corruption efforts, before the gradual “liberalization” of the economy.
Russia was just abandoned. There was a ton of “collectivization” where workers took over plants, farms, stores. It was about a decade for actual “gangster capitalism” to show up, because the laws were not reformed, the Government was not reformed and civil/community structure were not built.
Yeah, a bunch at the top grabbed what they could, because they could, but most of them were dead by the late 90’s, because the AK47 was mightier than the pen.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: On the (not implausible) Taiwan conflict military scenario that you set out: one factor that strikes me as missing is the high likelihood of suppression of Chinese mainland and littoral launch sites by US submarine-based (conventional) missile salvoes in the event of Chinese attacks on US bases and naval assets. I feel sure that this aspect is part of the wargaming conducted by both sides. And yet it is rarely discussed, perhaps because strikes on the territory of a nuclear power are somehow felt to be off-limits. I doubt very much that this outlook is realistic.
Jay
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: Not nearly enough munitions for the number of targets on the Mainland, even including what the USAF can bring to bear. This is commonly acknowledged by the US military. USN subs (in the region) alone will only be able to launch a few dozen to a few hundred Tomahawks in total. USN subs (& cruisers/destroyers) will have return to port to replenish weapons load once expended. Since US bases in Japan/Okinawa/Guam (far fewer in number & much less hardened that Chinese bases on the Mainland) will likely be harassed/suppressed by Chinese ballistic & cruise missiles, the closest safe harbor would be Pearl. That means long times spend in transit & relatively few on station at any given time. The US is experimenting w/ at sea reloading of VLS cells for surface warships again, already challenging, but I don’t think it is nearly as easy for subs.
China now also boasts perhaps the world’s most advanced integrated air defense system, at least on par w/ that of Taiwan, especially along its eastern/southern seaboard. We have seen in Ukraine that modern air defense are extremely effective against legacy subsonic non-stealthy cruise missiles (more so as what the US launches will mostly come from the sea, w/ no terrain features to hide in). That applies in both directions across the TW Strait.
To get through modern air defenses, missiles will have to be stealthy (if subsonic), supersonic/hypersonic cruise, or more than minimally maneuverable in the terminal phase (if ballistic), or some combination.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani:
@Chetan Murthy:
What you are arguing is that Russia & the other post-Soviet states did not have the governance capacity to manage the rapid fire sale of state owned assets, as mandated by “Shock Therapy”. All the more reason “Shock Therapy” should not have been tried.
Even in China (or Vietnam), where state owned enterprises reform happened much more slowly, never intended to go as far, & where governance capacity was considerably higher, there were still plenty of stories of SOE management purposely running the enterprise into the ground, buying the asset from state owners for a pittance, & then selling it off for a huge mark up or rebuilding them to be profitable operations. The PLA went into all kinds of businesses, including shady operations such as smuggling, selling to both sides of a hot conflict, & selling ballistic missile & nuclear tech in violation of international agreements. The PLA & the Chinese MIC was trying to make ends meet, during the nearly two decades where they were starved of funding .
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
The thing was, Sach’s et al, “managed” sucessful transitions in most of the Warsaw Pact, with financial aid and building civil structure.
just F’n bailed on Russia. Let’s see what happens. Almost a pre-run of Iraq.
“The “natural” end state is well regulated capitalism” BS.
And they knew it at the time. Sociopaths.
Morons.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: It is possible that “shock therapy” would not have happened if the West hadn’t “helped”. Sure. But in that case, you’d have had a continued authoritarian regime, continued centralized control of the economy, and hence, I don’t think it would have lasted. The privatization was bound to happen, and because the KGB had decided as the USSR was going down, that it would *it would* control the successor state, there was simply no doubt that KGB-connected gangsters were going to snap up all SOEs of any value whatsoever.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
the thing is, the West didn’t help. Period.
It took over 10 years for “gangster Capitalism”, to take control.
In the mid 90’s. I worked for a timber corp that bought several mills, pulp mills and timber rights in Siberia. We bought them from “workers collectives” that had seized them both physically, and later, “under the law”, from the State. Legally transferred.
4 years, and then the guys with the guns showed up, who also held the State Governor and his family hostage.
Not fun, but legal under unreformed Russian law. Feudal.
Chetan Murthy
@Jay:
Agreed, we didn’t help. My point is, we couldn’t have helped: Russia is too big and with too many entrenched bad actors with too much power, for us to make any headway. The best thing for us would have been to just stay away and let Russia sort it out; at least then, we wouldn’t have been blamed (as we are today).
I think a big difference between what happened in Eastern Europe (and now in Ukraine) and what happened in Russia, is simply that these states are *smaller*, and hence it’s possible to influence them more. Which, again, is why I believe that a better future for Russia’s subject peoples goes thru the fragmentation of the Russian Empire.
Sally
@zhena gogolia: I am happy to see Russia’s side of the story. They are a violent, bankrupt in every sense of the word, country that has illegally invaded its peace loving neighbour, and is committing war crimes at an unprecedented rate. There, Russian side of the war. I hope they are about to experience the sequel: “Crimes and Punishments”.
Jay
Disagree, but then, I was one of the guys getting shot at.
We didn’t just “buy out” the Collectives. We formed “Soviets”, (Unions) we formed collective development agreements with the Intinguish peoples.
Didn’t matter when the “Governor” had tanks and and air force.
There was no law, but the gun,
Jay
Put it another way,
the iconic photo of the Soviet flag being raised above the Reichstag,
Guy taking the photo, Ukrainian.
Guy raising the flag, Ukrainian.
2 guys in “overwatch” Ukrainian,
Everybody in that photo is Ukrainian.
Manyakitty
@Andrya: fascinating. Will definitely look for those lectures. It makes a lot of sense.
zhena gogolia
@Lyrebird: Yeah, I have done a bit of work with all three languages and I would disagree.
Geminid
From bloomberg.com:
Russia claimed it would not extend the grain deal unless “systemic problems” linked to Russia’s own agricultural exports are resolved. Last week Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S.’s UN Ambassadore, said that Russia’s grain and fertilizer exports continue at a rate equal to their pre-war levels.
It seems that Russia has again backed down, and not unexpectedly. They have less leverage now than last July, when the original agreements were signed.
lashonharangue
Regarding why the transition worked (more or less) in some places as compared to Russia, I recommend reading the book “The Narrow Corridor.” Here is a lecture from one of the authors. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hN41szESpv8
Basic premise – prosperous countries with a good degree of freedom require the development of both a government with strong capacity balanced by a society that has a good capacity to constrain and hold accountable that government. They describe how that has happened historically across different cultures and why it can go off the rails, or never gets started.
Applying that framework to Russia, it never had nor developed a civil society capable of getting into that sweet spot. Probably even before the USSR was formed. Certainly not after its ending.
By contrast I am pretty optimistic about Ukraine being able to get there with the proper investments in rebuilding. Timothy Snyder’s lectures seem consistent with what this book says about getting there.
YY_Sima Qian
Good summary from Tyler Rogoway on what we could expect w/ the Patriot batteries going forward. It will remain a focus for Russian strikes, & one or more could eventually be damaged or destroyed, but that does not detract from the success of its deployment. The batteries will soak up Russia’s dwindling inventory of advanced ballistic missiles, & its ability to replenish are limited.
Manyakitty
@YY_Sima Qian: I read this, too, and considered sharing it. Glad you did! I’ve been following Tyler Rogoway for years and find him a good resource.
YY_Sima Qian
@Manyakitty: Yes, I think among the writers at the War Zone he has the most credibility & integrity.