(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Last night in comments, Andrya asked:
Food for thought: the very next BJ post after this one includes efforts to advance the cause of nuclear disarmament including by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and actor George Takei. Here’s the thing- before the russian invasion of Ukraine I might have sympathized, but now, it seems to me that we cannot even consider nuclear disarmament in the foreseeable future. (Yes, nuclear weapons are awful, and we may destroy the human race, but what would putin do if he had nukes and NATO did not? And could we monitor russia sufficiently to absolutely preclude cheating in a treaty of mutual disarmament?)
I’d love to get the opinion from jackals who know more about this than I do.
The real question is not could we monitor Russia sufficiently to absolutely preclude cheating in a treaty of mutual disarmament. The real question is why, given what we’ve seen of Russia’s behavior and constant use of their nuclear arsenal as an informational sword and shield to achieve their strategic goals of limiting the US’s and our allies’ and partners’ responses, is why anyone would want to? And why, if you’ve watched all of this and you don’t have nukes, but have either the ways to develop your own or the means to purchase them, you wouldn’t do so? One of the major lessons learned from the past fifteen months is that if you have a nuclear arsenal, if you’re brazen enough, you can do as you wish because your adversaries are so risk averse they refuse to even contemplate that you are manipulating them to make the decisions you want them to make. Basically it is a nuclear version of the Melian dialogue where the nuclear weapon equipped do as they wish, while those with no nuclear weapons suffer what they must.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Our priorities for the near future are additional air defense systems, missiles, training and aircraft, long-range weapons – address by the President of Ukraine
18 May 2023 – 21:01
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
I have just held a meeting of the military cabinet. This is our special format of working in a narrow circle with those responsible for the defense of the state.
There were commanders of key frontline areas. Also the Commander-in-Chief, the General Staff, intelligence, security. A truly meaningful work.
First of all, the defense brigades did a good job, they fulfilled the main strategic tasks, but now is not the time to give details.
Secondly, the offensive brigades are doing a good job, we are preparing, no details.
Thirdly, on the protection of civilians, the Air Force is doing a great job, here with details. Our priorities for this week, next week, and for the near future are additional air defense systems, additional missiles, training and aircraft, and long-range weapons. And this will be fulfilled.
Today I also held a thorough meeting with our international staff – the Office’s team. We have a task to maintain the momentum of international support and communication for Ukraine, which was achieved in the first half of May, in these weeks as well. I am confident that we will accomplish this task.
I had the honor to visit the office of the Crimea Platform and meet with the leader of the Crimean Tatar people Mustafa Dzhemilev, representatives of the Mejlis and the Crimean Tatar community.
Today and every year on this day, May 18, we honor the memory of all the victims of the deportation of the Crimean Tatar people. It was one of the most serious crimes of the twentieth century – the entire nation was forcibly removed from its native land and forced to live in a foreign land for decades. And when the people returned home, Russia once again brought its evil to their home, to our Ukraine – the evil of aggression, repression, and humiliation.
It is our historical task to restore justice to all our people, to guarantee freedom for our entire country without any exceptions. The task of all those who defend the state, all those who chose Ukraine and, therefore, will win.
I am glad to see that the Crimea Platform we have created effectively channels the joint power of our entire state and the Crimean Tatar people. I am glad to know that our joint work with the Mejlis brings the result Ukraine needs.
By the way, we are preparing some very important joint steps for the near future. We are bringing the issue of Crimea, Crimean prisoners and all our people in Crimea to a new international level.
And one more thing.
Today, many Ukrainians wore vyshyvankas. It’s important to remember the richness that unites us all. Ukraine is diverse, and this is our strength, and it was evident throughout the day in the different patterns of embroidery.
But now I ask you all to remember those Ukrainians who are literally our strength and our defense. Many of our people were not wearing vyshyvankas because they were in military uniforms. I ask you now to remember everyone who is fighting for Ukraine. All those who are on combat missions and at combat posts for the sake of Ukraine. All those who train our soldiers for the sake of Ukraine. Those whom you know personally, those whom you have heard about, and thousands and thousands of others who are equally protecting the life of Ukraine. Please remember them now and thank them.
We also do not forget for a single moment about those of our people who are held captive by the occupier. About captured Ukrainians, about those repressed in the occupied territories. About those who are in the occupied cities and communities and are waiting for the return of our flag and our state. We must liberate all our people and all our land from Russian captivity.
Let us act together, in unity, taking care of each other and the state, and let us not stop until we win.
Thank you to everyone who helps!
Glory to all who fight for Ukraine!
Eternal memory to all victims of Russian tyranny!
Eternal memory to all victims of the deportation of the Crimean Tatar people!
Glory to Ukraine!
Last night, russian terrorists attacked Ukraine with missiles again.
Enemy launched:
22 Kh-101/Kh-555;
6 Kalibrs;
2 Iskander-K.According to General Valerii Zaluzhnyi @CinC_AFU 29 missiles were shot down by Ukrainian air defenders. In addition, 4 russian drones were destroyed.
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 18, 2023
This is an excellent explanation behind the strategy of Russia’s escalation in long range strikes on Ukraine:
RU intensified 🚀 strikes after leaked grim JCS estimates of UA air
defense capacity. RU aim is simple one – deplete UA interceptors stock&open avenues for RU piloted aviation. That’s why though UA air&missile defense performed well it’s not the time to fall into complacency.— Mykola Bielieskov (@MBielieskov) May 18, 2023
The Ukrainian war on corruption proceeds apace! And that’s a good thing:
Ukraine's "fight on two fronts" is melding into one:
Anti-graft agencies say they sent more than $17 million this year from settlements in corruption cases to fund hundreds of drones for the military. https://t.co/cWoDG7c7r4
— Dan Peleschuk (@dpeleschuk) May 18, 2023
Передана сума — це кошти, сплачені обвинуваченими в корупції в рамках механізму угод.
Загалом завдяки САП, НАБУ та ВАКС, укладеним угодам з обвинуваченими та іншим механізмам на користь ЗСУ перераховано понад 1,7 млрд грн. Приємно, що ЦПК був одним з драйверів цього процесу.
— ЦПК | Центр протидії корупції (@zer0corruption_) May 18, 2023
Here’s a machine translation of both tweets:
1) NABU and SAP directed UAH 650 million to the “Army of Drones”. And this is in less than five months of this year.
This is one of the largest contributions to the “Defense” account of the “UNITED 24” platform.
With these funds, hundreds of drones were purchased for the ZSU and GUR. And also a significant number of BMP-2 for the Offensive Guard.
2) The transferred amount is the money paid by the accused in corruption as part of the deal mechanism. In general, more than UAH 1.7 billion was transferred to the Armed Forces thanks to the SAP, NABU and VAKS, the agreements concluded with the accused and other mechanisms. It is good that the Central Committee was one of the drivers of this process.
Ouch!
Video of a tank from Ukraine’s 30th Mechanized Brigade firing at Russian positions at close range before it was assaulted by infantry. https://t.co/vVELau5g81 pic.twitter.com/vMMjfcxacr
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 18, 2023
For Omnes:
Video from Ukraine’s 406th Artillery Brigade of a likely Excalibur strike from an M777 howitzer on a Russian Giatsint-B artillery piece in Kherson Oblast. https://t.co/WggsqZrepz pic.twitter.com/Su1kvTzL9q
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 18, 2023
Bakhmut:
Bakhmut, call sign "Legion". 3rd Assault Brigade. pic.twitter.com/CZf8qTEGJH
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) May 18, 2023
Here’s the full video, with English subtitles, from the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade. It is an Azov element.
And here’s the description of the video they posted just below it and above the comments on their YouTube page:
“In Bakhmut Storms”: Unique footage of the Bakhmut battles and frontline stories told by 3rd SABr
141,645 views May 17, 2023 БАХМУТ
Recruitment to the 3rd SABr continues! Fill out the application form: https://ab3.army/For your attention here is a documentary in which fighters of the Third Separate Assault Brigade share life stories that they had to experience while fighting in the Bakhmut direction.
Stormers talk about whether they feel fear at the front line, reflect on heroism and the new experience of urban warfare.
The documentary consists of 7 small chapters. The stories of the fighters are illustrated with video footage of city battles with views of the destroyed Bakhmut and its surroundings as well as with moments of uplifting military humor, which helps the stormers of the 3rd SABr to keep their fighting spirit in critical situations at the difficult Bakhmut front.
Become a sponsor of the victory
/ @ab3army
In the first chapter, named “The Guide”, a soldier of the 3rd SABr tells about how the infantry has to enter the positions. He explains who a guide is, what his functions are, and what it means to be a bad guide. “When you enter Bakhmut, you are told: “Now the guides will lead you to the position.” And you think to yourself: “Oh, guides. They must be some cool scouts. And on the third day you are already a guide yourself,” – the stormer states.
In the second chapter “The Quick Legs”, the fighters recall the conditions in which they sometimes have to deliver the ammunition to the front line, when one have to carry a 50-kilogram box full of mines, while making the way through snow that is waist-high and covering the shell craters.
The third chapter contains the memories of the stormer of the 3rd SABr about how he managed to save the life of his combat mate. “I applied two tourniquets and occlusive seals to him. Bandaged his neck and head. Now he is in good condition, he speaks already and is recovering further,” – the fighter remembers.
“I drove the fuckers here. I will finish them off.” – the fourth chapter, entitled “Legion”, tells about a fighter who, after being wounded, not only continued the battle, but also advanced on the enemy in order to recapture the lost positions.
The fifth chapter “The Wave” deals with the occupants’ assault tactics in the Bakhmut direction, who are thrown into the fray wave after wave, not worrying about the losses.
“If you don’t take him now and push him out the window and jump out yourselves, you will stay there with him forever.” The sixth chapter tells about a critical situation during the battle, when the fighter did not want to leave his wounded mate, but in the end saved his life along with his own.
The final chapter “Lexus” involves the combat medics commemorating their fallen friend who saved his mate’s life at the cost of his own.
SEE MORE:
The offensive of the 3rd Assault Brigade or How the russian 72nd brigade fled from Bakhmut area | TEASER• Наступ Третьої шт…
Life in the trenches, nudes, and dark military humor – at the positions of the 3rd SABr near Bakhmut• Життя в окопах, н…
Enemy shelling, military humor and a mine with a motor – in positions with the fighters of the Third Assault Brigade• Ворожий обстріл, …
The front line near Bakhmut, life at line zero and the evacuation of civilians – a day in the war as seen by 3rd SABr• Передова під Бахм…
Wagner’s revelation: satire on Putin, love for Bandera, business in moscow and drug addiction• Одкровення вагнер…
The 3rd SABr burns the enemy with its own weapons: we took a trophy Msta-S and burned down the ammunition depot• 3 ОШБр випалює во…
CHAPTERS:
00:00 Prologue
00:50 Chapter 1. The Guide
03:15 Chapter 2. The Quick Legs
06:00 Chapter 3. The Combat Mate
08:43 Chapter 4. The Legion
10:57 Chapter 5. The Wave
13:56 Chapter 6. Push him out
16:07 Chapter 7. Lexus
19:07 EpilogueSupport the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade financially: https://www.supportazov.com
Subscribe to our channel where we are telling about the most intense combat moments and action-packed operations of our unit:
Website: https://ab3.army/
Telegram: https://t.me/ab3army
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ab3.army
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ab3.army
Twitter: https://twitter.com/ab3army* This is an informative video, intended to inform the Ukrainian public about the realities of the war, work and life of the soldiers of the 3rd SABr in Bakhmut.
Bakhmut. 16/https://t.co/5NUQUsj6yl pic.twitter.com/s1197tDgNc
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 18, 2023
Kherson:
Once upon a time, a russian tank and the #UAarmy were playing hide and seek.
The russian tank hid in a hangar, but still lost.
Hola Prystan, Kherson region. pic.twitter.com/PljOrqTggW— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 18, 2023
Odesa:
Apart from Kyiv, Odesa was attacked espessially hard. 8 missiles were downed. One made it through, killing civilian. pic.twitter.com/1KmHwbikG2
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 18, 2023
Finally!
US officials are not aware, however, of any formal requests by any allies to export F-16s, and State Dept officials who would normally be tasked with the paperwork to approve such third-party transfers have not been told to get to work, officials said. https://t.co/Obp5vRd097
— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) May 18, 2023
Here’s more details from CNN:
The Biden administration has signaled to European allies in recent weeks that the US would allow them to export F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, sources familiar with the discussions said, as the White House comes under increasing pressure from members of Congress and allies to help Ukraine procure the planes amid intensifying Russian aerial attacks.
Administration officials are not aware, however, of any formal requests by any allies to export F-16s, and State Department officials who would normally be tasked with the paperwork to approve such third-party transfers have not been told to get to work, officials said.
A handful of European countries have a supply of the US-made F-16s, including the Netherlands, which has signaled a willingness to export some of them to Ukraine. But the US would have to approve that third party transfer because of the jets’ sensitive US technology.
While the US remains reluctant to send any of its own F-16s to Kyiv, US officials told CNN that the administration is prepared to approve the export of the jets to Ukraine if that is what allies decide to do with their supply.
National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby declined to comment specifically on the possibility of the US sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, but said broadly that the US has been forward-looking about “future capabilities” and needs. F-16s are “not on the agenda” at the G7, he said, though the aircraft could certainly come up on the sidelines of the summit.
The issue is expected to be a subject of debate at the next NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, in July, officials said.
Another open question is where Ukrainian pilots would train on these F-16s. A spokesperson for UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said earlier this week that the UK and the Netherlands were looking to form an “international coalition” not only to procure the jets for Ukraine but also to train Ukrainian pilots on the 4th generation fighters, which are more advanced than the Ukrainian fighter fleet.
In March, the US hosted two Ukrainian pilots at a military base in Tucson, Arizona to evaluate their skills using flight simulators and to assess how much time they would need to learn to fly various US military aircraft, including F-16s. But US has no plans as of now to expand that training, a defense official told CNN, despite Congress setting aside money in the 2023 budget for such training.
US allies with F-16s could conduct training for Ukrainian fighter pilots, or the aircraft’s manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, could carry out training as a private contractor. But the defense official said such an arrangement would likely need some level of US participation, even if it doesn’t require an official US sign off like the transfer of US weaponry overseas.
Today is Vyshyvanka Day!
The harder Russia tries, the more Ukrainians value freedom and national identity 💙💛#VyshyvankaDay pic.twitter.com/5p1E4OMPmK
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 18, 2023
It is also the commemoration of the (beginning) of the Soviet deportation and forced relocation of the Crimean Tatars.
This year, the two meanings are united by one date, May 18.
79 years ago on this day, the Soviet regime began deporting the Crimean Tatar people. A people they wanted to erase. Deprive of their homes, deprive of the right to life.
But the people survived. And they will live… pic.twitter.com/PDgX56ST7s
— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) May 18, 2023
Here’s the full text of the tweet:
This year, the two meanings are united by one date, May 18.
79 years ago on this day, the Soviet regime began deporting the Crimean Tatar people. A people they wanted to erase. Deprive of their homes, deprive of the right to life.
But the people survived. And they will live freely!
Today, I am wearing a special vyshyvanka with ornaments that symbolize the unity of the Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar peoples. Symbols of our strength and our desire to live in our home.
Let this year’s Vyshyvanka Day in 🇺🇦 be a reminder of what our people have been through and how strong our culture is.
We honor our peoples, their strength and culture!
That’s enough for today.
Your daily Patron!
Two new videos from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns Любіть своїх чотирилапих друзів❤️🥺 Ідею побачив у @annamaletsss 🐾
Here’s the machine translation of the caption:
Love your four-legged friends ❤️🥺 I got the idea from @annamaletsss 🐾
And here’s the second video:
@patron__dsns З Днем вишиванки!💙💛
And here’s the machine translation of its caption:
Happy Vyshyvanka Day! 💙💛
Open thread!
Alison Rose
Re: Bielieskov’s tweet – I won’t fall into complacency until every last orc has left Ukrainian land, and maybe not even then. And I sure hope something happens soon with those F-16s. I can only begin to imagine the frustration over having asked for something roughly 6,000 times and still hearing a “hey maybe soon” or whatnot.
Cats also celebrate Vyshyvanka Day!
Thank you as always, Adam.
West of the Rockies
Russia launched 30 cruise missiles in one day (with a 1 for 30 success rate)…
Adam, do you have even a vague idea what kind of cash outlay that is for Russia? Was that a 3 million dollar evening?
And how many cruise missiles does Russia have left (even a guesstimate would be interesting).
1 for 30 seems like an expensive and incompetent effort.
Another Scott
KyivIndependent.com:
Accountants rule the world. Sometimes to our benefit!
Cheers,
Scott.
Alison Rose
@West of the Rockies: You reminded me of this post from Saint Javelin yesterday. Made me chuckle :)
Baud
@Another Scott:
And that’s how we solve the debt limit problem.
Gin & Tonic
On Vyshyvanka Day, here’s a photo of a guy some of you may remember wearing one (and looking fine.) https://twitter.com/united24media/status/1659110924555255808?s=46&t=7loxB7qGWujFKgdr0luT1w
Adam L Silverman
@West of the Rockies: I was up at 4:30 AM every day this week. Regardless of what anyone might have been told, there will be no math!
I honestly don’t know.
West of the Rockies
@Alison Rose:
Ha! Russian humiliation — I am here for it!
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Here you go:
Andrya
Thank you so much for your answer to my question, Adam. It wasn’t the answer that I wanted to hear, but it was the answer that I knew, deep down, was true.
Among other horrible things putin has done, he has completely, and probably permanently, destroyed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Adam L Silverman
Time for me to get cleaned up and rack out.
West of the Rockies
@Adam L Silverman: i hope you get some rest soon, good sir.
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: I thought it was gonna be you.
Manyakitty
Was there ever more information about South Africa giving weapons to the Russians? I asked one of my colleagues from Capetown about it and she said it’s nonsense but the uproar over it crashed the rand and they sent the US ambassador home. Not much news about it on this side of the world.
Manyakitty
@Gin & Tonic: glorious. I’m sewing a Bukharan-style kippah for my dad and he wants me to add some Vyshyvanka embroidery to it.
Another Scott
@West of the Rockies: @Adam L Silverman:
Wikipedia says the Kh-101 is estimated to cost $13M. The reference is a Forbes story from 2022 (and extrapolations, etc.).
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
catclub
@West of the Rockies:
Depends on the cost of the shoot down effort.
Stuart Frasier
@West of the Rockies: They might cost Russia a million dollars each (there are some very high prices floating around the internet based on export deals, but Russia doesn’t pay that). Still very expensive for not much effect. Of course, the missiles used to shoot them down are probably even more expensive.
West of the Rockies
@Another Scott:
Sounds like a very spendy failure.
Carlo Graziani
@Baud: I’m certain that Treasury accountants are hard at work. The Excel Warriors can probably buy a month of time, at least.
bookworm1398
I realize I could google this, but I’ll ask here: what makes Vyshyvanka embroidery different from any other embroidery? Specific patterns, colors, something else?
Carlo Graziani
@Andrya: I rather doubt that. The NPT Treaty exists to promote the nuclear monopoly, which works in favor of Russian policy. The Russians are likely to make any concession imaginable to preserve it. Particularly at a time when their conventional military is a public shambles, the prospect of Georgia, Azerbajian, the Stans, etc. acquiring nuclear capability equalizing the power relations at play must be totally intolerable to them.
Russian nuclear bluster really has no effect on the West (note the unvaried US DEFCON status throughout the war, despite febrile nuclear threats from Moscow). Even the alleged NATO self-deterrence is over-hyped, in my opinion—weapons systems show up in Ukraine when they are ready, rather than when they are demanded, and this is just as true of F-16s as it was of HIMARS. But those implicit nuclear threats are of supreme importance to Russian policy towards its periphery. If Russia itself should be subjected to nuclear deterrence by its own neighbors, it would lose its last claim to great-power status. They would go to any length, even choke down diplomatic shit sandwiches, to avoid this.
What’s not in play, and never was despite Kishida’s politically-motivated grandstanding, is total nuclear disarmament. There is no way to get there from here, and there wouldn’t be even if Russia had never invaded Ukraine.
wombat probabilty cloud
@Another Scott: God bless rounding errors.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks, Adam.
Rocks
Adam – You’re in bed, so this will wait until tomorrow. I can envision a scenario where a Ukrainian victory and expulsion of Russian forces from all of their territory leads to the descent of the Russian government into chaos. In that case, what is planned and what can be done to keep Russia’s nuclear weapons from falling into the hands of terroists?
Gin & Tonic
@bookworm1398: There are specific patterns and motifs, with regional variations. An expert can glance at a shirt and tell you where it’s from.
There are many, many texts on the subject (and my dear wife owns most of them,)
Anastasio Beaverhausen
Detective Chief Superintendent Christopher Foyle in the Melian Dialogue! That’s one for the way back machine. But Michael Kitchen’s mood and manner is unmistakable.
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: If someone in the US (like, say…me) wanted to go about obtaining one, do you happen to know of any Ukrainian artisans who have online shops? My mom’s maternal grandfather was from Lviv and it would be really lovely to find something/have something made to represent that.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: Yeah, the nuke cats are well & truly out of the bag, there is no going back. We can only hope to minimize security dilemma dynamics among nuclear powers, prevent an arm race to increase qty., reach mutual agreement to desist from efforts to miniaturize them & make then more “operationally flexible”, & slow their proliferation
However, it is obvious why it is in the non-nuclear powers to push nuclear powers to disarm. It is not obvious why it is in the interest of the nuclear powers to disarm.
Jay
The Counter Offensive has begun,……
https://twitter.com/CloudyWithBees/status/1655650495388631041/photo/1
it’s a NAFO meme about two UA guys who slap ERA tiles on everything, Storm Shadows, F-16s, HIMARS,…….
dr. luba
@Alison Rose: Lviv is a big city and, as such, would not have specific traditional designs. Embroidery was more of a village/peasant craft/pursuit.
In the past, when Ukraine was under foreign hegemony, the big cities were usually full of “foreigners,” while Ukrainians lived in small town and villages.
You could find something from the general ethnographic regions. Most embroideries for sale are more modernized, generic designs, though.
The term “vyshyvanka” nowadays refers to any embroidered shirt, blouse or even dress, not just to folk costume. You can find lots for sale on etsy.
https://www.etsy.com/market/vyshyvanka
Alison Rose
@dr. luba: Ah, okay. Hmm, my uncle has a lot of genealogy info, he might know more specifics about where my great-grandpa was from.
Jay
@Alison Rose:
U24 is holding an auction. In addition to getting a regional, gender specific authentic shirt made by a Ukrainian artist, you can get one worn by a U24 supporting celeb,……..
https://twitter.com/U24_gov_ua
Andrya
@Carlo Graziani: I hope you are right. I would be so, so, happy to be wrong.
The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty is an agreement between nuclear states and non-nuclear states with the following provision:
Nuclear states: If you don’t acquire nukes, we won’t use nuclear weapons on you.
putin hasn’t violated the letter of this treaty, but he sure as heck has violated the spirit. His stance towards Ukraine is “I might nuke you, I might not, but I WILL use my nukes to scare your allies from giving you effective help”. putin’s nuclear threat is the reason the US has not given Ukraine advanced fighter planes that they desperately need.
I agree that russia does not want the ‘stans, and other former russia/ussr possessions, to get nukes- but how exactly are they going to prevent this?
putin has indicated (not very specifically) that he thinks he has a God-given mission to restore the russian empire and/or the ussr: this would potentially involve Azerbaijan, Estonia, Finland, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. All these countries must be terrified.
Of course, russia would prefer that none of these countries get nukes, and would give any number of reassurances to appease them. If you were the head of government of any of these countries, would you believe any reassurances? putin has already repudiated the Budapest memorandum, wherein russia guaranteed Ukrainian territorial independence and integrity. putin lies all the time: he invaded Ukraine because Zelenskyy is a Nazi and a drug addict? The Ukrainians (including Zelenskyy, a native Russian speaker) are persecuting russian speakers? Now his propaganda is saying that russia didn’t invade Ukraine, NATO invaded russia?
If I were the head of government of (for example) Kazakhstan or Georgia, my ambassadors to Pakistan and North Korea would be waving $$ in front of both countries saying “sell us nukes, and we’ll pay you big!!”
And then there’s the global implications beyond the russian sphere of influence. Vietnam, Taiwan, and the Philippines are under immediate threat from nuclear power China. (Specifically, China is denying these countries access to international waters.) Japan and South Korea are under medium term threat from China. If you were the head of government of any of these countries, wouldn’t you be looking to acquire nukes?
And if all these countries on the periphery of nuclear armed powers want nukes, how does the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty survive?
I would really welcome your comments on my analysis. I hope it doesn’t sound hostile- I enormously respect your analyses, and have learned a lot from them.
AlaskaReader
It’s said Andy Warhol gave Morrison the shirt:
Andrew Warhola was the fourth child of Ondrej Warhola (Americanized as Andrew Warhola, Sr., 1889–1942) and Julia (née Zavacká, 1892–1972), whose first child was born in their homeland and died before their move to the U.S.
“Julia and Ondrej Warhola were Carpatho-Rusyns, who immigrated to the United States during the first quarter of the 20th century. Some scholars place the Carpatho-Rusyns as a subgroup of Ukrainians, while others see them as distinctly separate. They are an East Slavic people who today inhabit the far reaches of eastern Slovakia and southwestern Ukraine.”
“I Am From Nowhere” – Andy & Julia Warhol: From Carpathian-Ruthenia With Love
Bill Arnold
@Rocks:
Not directly answering your question, which I frankly expect does not have a calming answer.
The risks are complex (political chaos being complicated) and nobody in the USA or Russian governments truly understands them.
Some background on a piece of them, though.
Among other things, the risks are dependent on/gated by how strong and ubiquitous Permissive Action Links are in the Russian Federation’s nuclear arsenal.
E.g. on tactical nuclear weapons, it is not clear.
RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVES ON NON-STRATEGIC NUCLEAR WEAPONS, Nikolai Sokov, 2012
In turn, the effective strength of PALs is gated by the procedures for controlling the codes. If they’re in envelopes in theater commanders’ offices, then e.g. post-Russian-Federation warlords might be able acquire both them and the associated weapons.
This, 30 years old, is interesting and lays out the problems in the context of the breakup of the USSR.
POST-SOVIET RUSSIA AND UKRAINE: WHO CAN PUSH THE BUTTON? (Alexander A. Pikayev, The Nonproliferation Review, 1994)
Disassembly/reassembly is also an option, with some significant technical skills required, that e.g. a warlord might not control or be able to acquire.
Kelly
I’ve been think about that for a while. I inclined think if the value of what you’ve protected is greater than the cost of the protection you’ve spent money well. This is complicated when you don’t know exactly what is going to be hit or how many lives are at stake. Your enemy’s cost of what you shot down only matters as far as how many shots they can afford.
counterfactual
@YY_Sima Qian: As Dick Cheney, of all people, said when he was Sectretary of Defense, “Nuke have no military value.” They’re only “useful” to play MAD games. They’re expensive to build and maintain, and there is always the risk of accident, misunderstanding and some commander going rogue. Sometime in the past few years, the DoD said that the US could get rid of 70% of the warheads we have and still have enough to dissuade an enemy from first strike.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: @Andrya: The classical deal of NPT is that non-nuclear weapons states get nuclear power technology, under IAEA supervision to prevent enrichment games, in exchange for refraining from weapons development.
This is still a great deal, particularly in the modern, highly fraught energy context. Developing safe, clean nuclear power, with its considerable cost and environmental advantages over the prevailing carbon-intensive energy sources, is utterly out of budget scope for most nations not already in possession of such technology. The deal is only questionable for nations that see security benefits in the development of their own nuclear deterrents that outweigh the costs of evading or exiting NPT.
And, incidentally, @Andrya I never resent pushback. I come here for the joy of argument. It helps me understand.
AlaskaReader
@Carlo Graziani: Safe clean nuclear power is an oxymoron.
(mid 17th century: from Greek oxumōron, neuter (used as a noun) of oxumōros ‘pointedly foolish’, from oxus ‘sharp’ + mōros ‘foolish’.)
Alison Rose
@Carlo Graziani:
rotating tag
Jay
@AlaskaReader:
yurp.
Carlo Graziani
@Andrya: And, more specifically to your point: To paraphrase the 2023 US National Security Strategy, Russia is an “acute” challenge, but not a “pacing” challenge. Which I take to mean that the extent of the threat presented by Russia to the World and to its neighbors is likely going to be very severely curtailed by the outcome of its imbecilic war of choice in Ukraine.
It is impossible to predict how this will happen in detail. But it is also impossible to associate the current trajectory of Russian world power and influence with phrases such as “long-term stability” or “persistence”. And there is plenty of historical evidence for Russian political upheaval driven by severe systemic crisis. In fact, a crisis driven by a catastrophically mismanaged war created the context for the Bolshevik coup d’etat, and Russian leaders have succeeded each other far more frequently by putsch than by orderly legal process—in fact, the putsch appears to be the Russian constitutional mechanism for transfer of power.
Which is by way of saying that a severely weakened Russia, under some leader who is possibly obnoxious but nevertheless preferable to Putin, and whose priorities are very definitely focused on internal politics rather than on empire, is an outcome of the war that is extremely plausible, and which may constitute a best case scenario.
Carlo Graziani
@AlaskaReader: Compared to what? Putting 10 billion tons of GHG into the atmosphere every year?
Even if a Chernobyl every 20 years were the cost of decarbonizing energy production, transportation, and industrial manufacturing, that tradeoff would be a great deal. The resulting impacts would be lower by thousands, in human lives, ecological damage, and in treasure. If anyone ever offers you that deal, please take it on all of our behalfs. Particularly because modern power reactors are nothing like Chernobyl.
Geoduck
@Carlo Graziani: I’ve read arguments that a truly inward-turning Russian leader isn’t even possible, as their whole identity is centered around being the empire of light surrounded by subhumans who have to be kept brutally in check.
Chetan Murthy
FYI, here’s an image of the signers of that NYT paid ad arguing for the end of all weapons support for Ukraine. The one that Sachs and Matlock signed.
https://nitter.net/GwarWorin/status/1659352506906886145#m
Scanning the names, only a couple jumped out at me as obviously “yeah, those aren’t patriots”. One that I was surprised by was Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, Colin Powell’s chief-of-staff and a real truth-teller about the Iraq War. I’m surprised that he went around the bend on this. Really surprised. Maybe I’m just naive.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
Nuclear energy is only “clean” if you discount the front end costs, the build costs and the back end costs, which nuclear energy promoters always do.
Uranium City will be safe to inhabit once again, in 10,000+ years.
Cheap real estate though. Almost affordable for the average American worker.
a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio)
For those of the jackaltariat who don’t have much experience with vehicle maintenance, beyond the personal level, a thread about spare parts—lots and lots of spare parts.
Tannehill was a naval aviator, so I suspect her grasp of the spare parts issue is better than mine. So when we talk about supplying Ukraine—or about Russia’s problems with supply and logistics. Even having lots of materiel may not mean you have *enough*.
Chetan Murthy
@a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio): thank you for this! It’s depressing reading, but I guess necessary.
JWR
@Chetan Murthy:
You’re not alone in being confused by this, but who knows? He is, after all, a Republican. Maybe he had a grudge against someone in the Shrub admin causing him to spill some beans about their nice little war, because he’s definitely on the wrong side of this one.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
Tankie. If the US is always wrong, then everything is the US’s fault.
Or the stopped clock theory.
Chetan Murthy
@Jay: apparently so. The depressing thing is that I thought he was better than that. Oh well live and learn.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
I thought that Ukraine f’d up the vote, and the AFO.
Thing is, I didn’t know how “Napoleanic” or “Soviet” the Ukraine Rada was,
or that the whole LPR/DPR were little green men.
But then, I am just an internet geek, so I learned.
I know “guys”, but they are more “this is a good grease” than “this is the latest itel,……”
Jay
Jay
Double post
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: Scott Ritter was a truth teller about the Iraq War, then he became a willing propaganda asset for Putin.
Manyakitty
@Gin & Tonic: does your wife have a favorite? I need to start learning the process.
evodevo
@YY_Sima Qian: yes…what I was just thinking…people who you think are sane and competent, and then do a 180…or have unpleasant facts revealed about other facets of their personal life. Disappointing…
Greg
Do we know how many of what type of surface to air missiles were used to shoot down the Russian missiles? That would seem to be an important detail.
Anoniminous
@Carlo Graziani:
False dichotomy
glc
An opinion piece from The Guardian
Subject: more support for Ukraine. Straightforward.
Dirk Reinecke
@Manyakitty: I haven’t heard that the ambassador has been sent home.
It has been claimed by SA officials that he has apologised, but I haven’t seen any evidence of that.
Here is an article explaining the situation
https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-05-12-explainer-what-we-know-about-the-explosive-russian-ship-scandal-so-far/
Manyakitty
@Dirk Reinecke: not sure if you’ll see this, but thank you!
Bill Arnold
@Greg:
Also very important for Russian military planners, who are trying to deplete the Ukrainian S2A missile inventory.