Ukrainian air defense is active!
Middle of the night and several loud explosions in Kyiv, as the capital once again comes under Russian aerial attack. So far what I’ve heard sounds like Ukrainian air defense working.
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 19, 2023
President Zelenskyy attended the Arab League Summit in Saudi Arabia today. Here is his address to the summit. Video below, English transcript after the jump. No closed captioning or subtitles as President Zelenskyy delivered his address in English.
I call on you to help protect our people including the Ukrainian Muslim community – address by the President of Ukraine at the Arab League Summit
19 May 2023 – 17:36
First, I express my gratitude for the warm hospitality to His Royal Highness Prince Mohammed, to the entire people of Saudi Arabia and the city of Jeddah which is hosting this Summit.
I hope that most of us are here for the sake of peace and justice.
Dear participants of the Summit!
Today is the four hundred and fiftieth day of the full-scale war waged against us by Russian invaders. We do not have missiles as our enemy has. We have less air power. We do not possess numerous killer drones that Iran supplies to Russia. We do not have that much artillery. But, we do stay strong, because we do have truth on our side. Moreover, we are pushing the occupiers out of our land.
Anyone who defends his native land from invaders and anyone who defends children of his nation from enslavement, – every such warrior is on the path of justice. And I am proud to represent such warriors and the entire Ukrainian people!
Ukrainians have never chosen the war. Our troops did not go to other lands, we do not engage in annexations and plunder of other nations’ resources. But we will never submit to any foreigners or colonizers. That’s why we fight! And I’m sure, all your nations will understand this main emotion of ours. I’m also sure, all your nations will understand the main call I want to leave here in Jeddah, a noble call to all of you – to help protect our people including the Ukrainian Muslim community!
With me here is the honorable Mustafa Dzhemilev, the leader of the Crimean Tatar people – one of the indigenous peoples of Ukraine, whose home is Crimea, the center of Muslim culture in Ukraine. For centuries, the Crimean Tatars have been and should remain an integral and strong part of the Muslim community of the world. But Crimea was the first to suffer from the Russian occupation, and until now, most of those who are subjected to repression in the occupied Crimea are Muslims.
We already have a positive experience with Saudi Arabia regarding the release of our people captured by Russia. We can expand this experience!
And even if there are people here at the Summit who have a different view on the war on our land calling it a conflict, I am sure that we can all be united in saving people from the cages of Russian prisons.
Unfortunately, there are some in the world and here, among you, who turn a blind eye to those cages and illegal annexations. I am here so that everyone can take an honest look. No matter how hard the Russians try to influence, there must still be independence.
And I want to thank Saudi Arabia, I want to thank the majority of you for supporting firm international positions and the UN Charter.
Dear participants of the Summit!
Your people have already seen that Ukrainians are a people of peace. Real peace. In 2021, we made a priority Ukraine’s openness to your people, and the people of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Bahrain, and Kuwait got to know Ukraine. I’m happy that your tourists were able to see the splendor of spring in our capital, Kyiv, and the majesty of the Carpathian mountains! I believe that one day your people will come back also to see our Crimea free from Russian occupation and humiliation.
Our relations are also tied by the education of tens of thousands of Arab students in our universities every year. It really is an honor for us that children from Morocco, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, Algeria, Libya and Tunisia went to Ukraine for education.
With you, we fullfilled one of the most honorable tasks in the world – food security. Ukraine traditionally supplies your countries with wheat and other agricultural products. We were glad to welcome the investments of the Arab nations, as well as the investments of Qatar in the port infrastructure.
First, the pandemic, and then a more terrible virus, the rabies of aggression, hit these and our other normal relationships.
I am more than sure that none of you will agree to surrender a third of your country to the invaders. I am more than sure none of you would watch without a fight how foreigners steal the children of your people; hundreds of thousands of our children are deported to Russia, separated from their relatives, and there in Russia they’re trying to teach our children to hate their natives. I’m more than sure that none of you would admit the military occupation of a nuclear plant to use it to blackmail the world with nuke disaster.
Look at how much suffering the long-term wars have brought to Libya, Syria, Yemen… How many lives have been wasted by years of fighting in Sudan and Somalia, in Iraq and Afghanistan… Everyone who adds to suffering by his new aggressions, everyone who sows enmity, everyone who wants to bring back the old days of invading empires that did not count with the will of independent nations – every aggressor goes against the world and will be cursed by the people.
And I greet everyone who is ready to join us on the path of justice! Ukraine proposed the Peace Formula to end the war. You can see how it works on the example of food security, one of the points of our Formula. Even when the war is thrown into our home, we do everything so that the homes of other peoples also survive. We managed to launch the Black Sea Grain Initiative and partially lift the Russian naval blockade of our ports. This stabilized food markets and helped many, including the nations of the Arab League.
The implementation of another point of our Peace Formula will also help many – the return home of all captives and deportees.
Each of the honorable delegations was given a document in your language – with ten points of the Peace Formula. Please, you can choose the point to help that you consider appropriate. And I will be grateful to each of you who will choose exactly the direction of rescuing people held in Russian captivity. So, I invite all of you who respect peace to join the implementation of the Peace Formula and, thus, to reduce enmity and wars, suffering and evil.
Russia is weak – we beat it even when it has more weapons in its hands; its aggressiveness does not come from strength, but from the understanding that the time of empires has passed. That’s because the time of free independent nations will never end, and Ukraine proves it.
I wish you peace! I invite you to cooperate directly with our country without any intermediaries. And may our and your strength act in a coordinated manner for the peace and good of people of all nations!
And please, listen to the Crimean Tatar people, listen to the Muslims of Ukraine!
May the Almighty protect our soldiers!
Слава Україні!
I think this was brilliant strategic communication. What I’m not so sure is if you can make common cause with the power centers in the Arab League to support Crimean Tatars just because the majority of Arabs are Muslims and the majority of Crimean Tatars are Muslims. The Arab League has a terrible track record of helping other Arabs who are Muslims let alone Muslims who are not Arabs. That said, sometimes you have to run the traps because the effort of undertaking public diplomacy is as important in generating positive effects that aren’t the declared ones.
Everyone is really excited about the F-16 news!
I welcome the historic decision of the United States and @POTUS to support an international fighter jet coalition. This will greatly enhance our army in the sky. I count on discussing the practical implementation of this decision at the #G7 summit in Hiroshima.
— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) May 19, 2023
We have a dream…
One day our pilots will protect our skies with modern F-16s.
Today, our heroic country has taken a huge step towards this goal!
The free world is launching a program to train our pilots on F-16s! Thank you President Biden for this long-awaited decision!
Thank… pic.twitter.com/d7EqXBocUp— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 19, 2023
Full text:
We have a dream…
One day our pilots will protect our skies with modern F-16s.
Today, our heroic country has taken a huge step towards this goal!
The free world is launching a program to train our pilots on F-16s! Thank you President Biden for this long-awaited decision!
Thank you to the American people for your unwavering support!
Welcome announcement that the US will approve the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets.
The UK will work together with the USA and the Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark to get Ukraine the combat air capability it needs.
We stand united. https://t.co/36d8ffu6aa pic.twitter.com/9Us6mAieR3
— Rishi Sunak (@RishiSunak) May 19, 2023
Even the Ukrainian Air Force’s MiG-29 pilots are excited!
It’s Time to Finish the Job.
Thank you Mr. President!🫡
— Juice_Fighter (@_juicefighter_) May 19, 2023
I think The Kyiv Independent‘s Ilia Ponomarenko has the correct take on this:
Imagine how many Ukrainian lives, soldiers and civilians, could have been saved and how sooner this war could have been over if it wasn’t for this endless don’t-provoke-Putin thing over tank killers/artillery/air defense/IFVs/tanks/whatever…and now F-16s.
At every step, Ukraine…— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 19, 2023
Here’s the full text of his tweet:
Imagine how many Ukrainian lives, soldiers and civilians, could have been saved and how sooner this war could have been over if it wasn’t for this endless don’t-provoke-Putin thing over tank killers/artillery/air defense/IFVs/tanks/whatever…and now F-16s.
At every step, Ukraine had to pay with thousands of its troops to prove it that hiding one’s head in the sand just doesn’t work — and that irrational fears, lack of resolve, and high-minded Realpolitik theories are only making things worse.
When this war is over, there will be decades of bitter mourning for those who died to make the West wake up and go on doing the right thing, one step at a time.
I asked Ukraine Defense Minister Reznikov in Kyiv about Zelensky’s G7 visit. He said a “top priority” is to discuss “aerial support” — jets. But he said more of everything is needed. Asked if he’d confirm reported Patriot shoot-down of a Russian jet, he said “no,” with a grin. pic.twitter.com/IEc9hps4si
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 19, 2023
Ouch!
Privet 👋 pic.twitter.com/FHWiJSIpKP
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 19, 2023
Bakhmut:
Heartbroken by the death of five members of the Belarusian Kastus Kalinouski Regiment @belwarriors fighting for 🇺🇦 in Bakhmut.
The regiment reported that a commander was killed as he enabled the evacuation of the wounded.
Four dead soldiers remain buried under the rubble… pic.twitter.com/PCXLwpkawz
— Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya (@Tsihanouskaya) May 19, 2023
Luhansk:
Damage from a recent strike in Russian-controlled Luhansk is visible in new satellite imagery.
Ukraine reportedly used Storm Shadow cruise missiles to hit this site, which is located more than 80 kilometers from the front line. pic.twitter.com/vtg8NhX7R8
— Brady Africk (@bradyafr) May 19, 2023
Mariupol:
/2. Right before that, Russian air defense activity was reported over Mariupol. pic.twitter.com/TXY3upZySU
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 19, 2023
With the view from the second video of the blast, it seems highly likely that this is the location hit. https://t.co/OFd35j79uR pic.twitter.com/6Ydz0u6FFN
— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) May 19, 2023
The Prospect has a very important piece regarding the human toll of the re-invasion:
“Have a lovely and peaceful day”, says a woman in a little corner shop. The shop is crammed with an eclectic collection of items: from tissues and shampoo bottles to sweets and toys. A miniature tank and rocket launcher sit prominently atop a small mound of plastic trucks for kids. The packaging reads in large letters: “ready to attack”. I ask for several candles, pay and hear the shop assistant wish me a peaceful day as I leave.
Peace is hard to come by in a country that is in the tenth year of defending itself from Russian aggression. But there is one place where I find perfect peace, and that is the place I head to from the corner shop.
The Lychakiv Cemetery in the city of Lviv can tell the complex history of this part of Ukraine. All you need to do is walk through the paths between the graves. Old Austrian tombstones, overgrown with ivy, rise elegantly in their dilapidation. Carefully restored graves of Polish dignitaries boast red and white ribbons. A few headstones without crosses stand over the remains of the Soviet troops and officials who invaded these lands when they were part of Poland in the first half of the 20th century. One of them belongs to a “Bolshevik who died liberating the peoples of western Ukraine from their Polish lords”, according to the epitaph. A local legend captures the arrival of the Soviets in 1939 through the words of a Lviv-based composer: “We’ve been liberated, and it can’t be helped.”
The recent attempt at “liberation” enforced upon the people of Ukraine resulted in an expansion of the Lychakiv Cemetery. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion, the military part has become too full to fit in the new war dead. The overflow is now accommodated in the adjacent section. The last time I visited, in September 2022, I counted around 100 new graves. This time, I am met by a sea of blue and yellow, now covering half of the large field. Each fresh grave has a Ukrainian flag next to it. There are at least twice as many as I saw in September. It turns out Ukrainians would rather die than be “liberated” by the occupiers again. Unlike in 1939, this time it can be helped, but the cost grows daily.
I walk through the rows between the flags, look at the photos of the dead and read the inscriptions. So many of them had only just entered adulthood before the Russians cut their lives short. Here and there are living bodies. A parent, a fellow soldier, a sibling, a partner. They all assume the same pose: arms folded around the stomach, spine curled up, head bowed low. Some are rocking slightly; others are stiff as stone. These are bodies in pain. The pain is phantom: what hurts only exists in memory. The living body above the grave adopts the pain the body six feet under can no longer feel.
I know that phantom pain intimately. My own body has been a vessel for it for over six years, though mine eases somewhat by my brother’s grave. He’s one of the lucky ones: he is buried in the main part of the military pantheon inside the old cemetery and not in the crowded new field. There’s a bench nearby, and I come and sit here to regain peace, to collect my thoughts and begin to make sense of the senseless violence imposed by Russia on my country.
Since my brother was killed in action in 2017, so much has changed. Russia scaled up its “liberation”. It is fighting not only the military, but also terrorising civilians by targeting hospitals, schools, and ordinary family homes as their inhabitants catch some sleep in between air raid sirens. It has left vast areas uninhabitable, by razing cities and towns to the ground; by turning what was once a place into post-apocalyptic territory. Village after village stands empty; forests, littered with mines, are abandoned; fields are wounded with explosions and covered in gaping craters instead of crops. These places have been liberated from life by the Russians and recovery will take years, demining will take decades, and forgiveness will take generations, if it ever comes.
For the past 14 months, I’ve been asked many times in the media and in public discussions to provide a “human angle” to Russia’s war. As well as feeling frustration at being pigeonholed into the category of “grieving woman”, I also wonder which part of the war these people consider to be not human. The trenches where soldiers, covered in spring mud, overcome boredom and fear by reading history books or flicking through social media? The war rooms where high officials make decisions on strategy, knowing full well the human cost of their choices? The train stations where couples say their goodbyes, as earth-shattering as any explosion? The cemeteries where the war dead find eternal peace and the living acquire eternal pain? The question is incomprehensible to me because the human angle is found in all aspects of a war that has disturbed all aspects of life. I see it in every encounter and hear it in every conversation I have when I return to Ukraine.
Speaking to my uncle, I ask how his grandson is doing after his father left for the front.
“He’s doing great. He’s got such excellent imagination,” says my uncle. “When he’s not building barricades out of chairs, he’s shooting at the enemy from behind the sofa.”
For a moment, I wonder if I should have bought the “ready to attack” toy for the boy as a present. But there’s so much war in his childhood already that he doesn’t need a plastic tank to play with. He wants his father back, and for that, real tanks are needed. Lots of them.
“Half of my phone book is empty now. The numbers belong to people who no longer live,” says a friend who himself is serving in the armed forces. “I don’t even save anyone’s numbers anymore. I don’t want another entry that won’t answer.”
I have nothing to say to that. So, we drink our tea and watch the kids play. He’s on leave; it’s a rare chance for him to see them. His younger son runs up to him and grabs his military cap. “Can I put it on my head, daddy, pleeease?” he shouts excitedly. “I want to be a soldier like you.”
More at the link!
That’s enough for tonight!
Time for your daily Patron adjacent material:
Who let the dogs out? pic.twitter.com/HVxdkfzcUy
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 19, 2023
And for your daily Patron!
A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns Дякую @Fan Karta Svitu за подаруночки😊 А лінк на збір у шапці профілю!🐾
Here’s the machine translation of the caption:
Thank you @Fan Karta Svitu for the gifts 😊 And the link to the collection is in the profile header! 🐾
Open thread!
KSinMA
Thanks, Adam!
Alison Rose
Yeah, I won’t say I love seeing anyone I like in the company of MBS, but I also understand the geopolitical need and importance of Zelenskyy’s visit and speech, and am glad that he was given the time and space to do so. His words were as always incredibly well-crafted and moving.
Speaking of moving, Lord, that piece from Olesya Khromeychuk (at The Prospect) is heartbreaking. And that along with Ponomarenko’s tweet puts into words how I’ve often felt as the US and others dithered about what to send and how much and when. How many Ukrainian lives are we comfortable sacrificing to our wringing hands? I’m glad for the Biden admin’s decision but it should not have taken this long into the full-scale war.
Arts and crafts on the front line: Soldier made a tryzub out of spent shell casings.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Omnes Omnibus
@Alison Rose: No army, navy, or air force has ever gotten everything it has asked for.
Anoniminous
MT-LB Go bye-bye
Around $500,000 and a full load of munitions – neither of which do the Russian have in large supply – gone at the cost of a $500 grenade.
Omnes Omnibus
@Anoniminous: God damn.
kalakal
@Anoniminous: Crikey
Alison Rose
@Omnes Omnibus: Of course not. But I’m far from alone in saying that they should have gotten more, and sooner. And I don’t think it’s inaccurate to say that fewer Ukrainians likely would’ve died if we’d taken our global responsibility more seriously from the get-go.
Omnes Omnibus
@Alison Rose: I’ll take issue with your suggestion that the US didn’t take its responsibility seriously enough. I understand that you disagree with some of the decisions that have been taken, but that does not mean that the situation was not taken seriously.
Gin & Tonic
@Anoniminous: I trust everyone read the article in The Economist that I referenced the other night about the folks working on drones in Ukraine. Several interesting techniques for dropping and detonating grenades.
Omnes Omnibus
@Gin & Tonic:
That particular one seems to work quite well.
Alison Rose
@Omnes Omnibus: Again, I am not the only one here who has posited such things. And I am not the only one who has seen thousands of Ukrainians killed and entire cities destroyed while their government has pleaded with Western countries to do more for well over a year now. Nothing they’ve asked for has been beyond the pale, and their leadership knows what they need and what they could do with it. I don’t know why you tend to take this stance, why it seems like you have to be contrarian on this topic. I’m not saying “fuck Biden he’s the worst” or something. I am grateful for what we have done. I am merely echoing what has been said many times by people, both USian and Ukrainian, who have pointed out that it is Ukrianian blood being spilled and their homes being eviscerated while we’ve hemmed and hawed about the optics of sending this or that weapon and about upsetting putin’s little feelings.
featheredsprite
@Alison Rose: You have a right to your pain. [[hug]]
Steeplejack
I’d like to emphasize a Twitter thread on aircraft logistics that commenter a thousand flouncing lurkers posted last night. It dampens the F-16 euphoria a bit.
Jay
@Alison Rose:
I have some patience. The “arm Ukraine” discussions take place on two levels, technical and political.
When Moscovia reinvaded, only 26,000 UA Infantry had attended 4 months of NATO training. No Generals, no senior staff.
When Slava told me he was going back to Ukraine, to fight, I asked what he needed. Turns out, it was body armour, first aid kit, uniform and manuals, because Ukraine didn’t have them.
Angela ran him through IFA #1 #2 and #3 in two weeks, but doesn’t have segment on Sucking Chest Wounds. Because I know a Guy, I printed off every manual I could get my hands on in Russian, Ukrainian and English, and gave him digital copies as well.
He had trained on T-62’s 20 years earlier, in the UAF, as a conscript and had never seen a manual. Not even for the thermal imager.
In my last jerb, we saw a bunch of brushless 12V DC computer controlled tools come in the shop. Pipe threaders, cutters, shears, hydraulic crimpers, pipe bevellers.
Basically, a potted computer module, a relay, sensors vary or tailor the motor’s speed and torque during use. There are only 42 wires and circuits, ( outside of the motherboard) which you can test for resistance, continuity and voltage, to try to figure out why it doesn’t work. We found it was way faster to just check for power in, then swap components until the damn thing was working again.
Not cheap, and we had to have a surplus of sensors, relays and motherboards known to be good. Despite being “Factory Trained”, and the only place in Western North America to be qualified on repairs, for years, it was only in March this year, that we figured out that the governors, for the hydraulic cylinders were “adjustable”. Each one came from the factory with 3 different settings, because they were used in 3 different tools,……………all with the same part number and no spec sheet.
So. for almost a decade, they were being tossed in the garbage for failing specs. It took us 6 months to find out and get a proper tool for removing the powerhead. Everybody else just tossed the tool when it was damaged, ($48,000) when it was just a $296 part. While we found that the Factory had a tool for adjusting the pressure, I had quit before it arrived.
That’s just medium end plumbing stuff, not an F-16.
Another Scott
It looks like the U.S. Navy is keeping an eye on Biden and the G7 in Hiroshima.
FlightRadar24.com – SUMO03
Cheers,
Scott.
Jay
@Steeplejack:
forget who, Norway maybe, have 69 F-16’s, upgraded to the latest export spec, just before storage, vacume packed with 5000 hours left on the clock.
They are good to go.
Yeah, depending on how hard Ukraine uses them, the “check engine” light might come on in the next 6 months.
Omnes Omnibus
@Steeplejack: This is one of the reasons we didn’t give F-16s immediately. It’s why we didn’t just send brand new NATO model tanks immediately. Logistics and maintenance. It’s not that Ukrainians can’t learn how fly, fight, maintain, and repair the things. It’s having enough of everything needed to let them do it on hand.
Steeplejack
@Jay:
You appear to be vastly oversimplifying the issue.
Another Scott
@Steeplejack: +1
None of this stuff is easy or quick.
Even my earlier joking-not-joking suggestion of flooding Ukraine with drones wouldn’t be easy or quick.
EscaDrone seems to be a French retailer of DJI (Chinese) drones. Xi probably wouldn’t like it if DJI suddenly shipped a million drones to Ukraine…
Cheers,
Scott.
Steeplejack
@Anoniminous:
It looks fake. Just sayin’.
Another Scott
@Steeplejack: I think it’s clear that a lot of editing happened (probably a long time passed between before and after (no smoke, no residual fire; maybe the first drone was damaged/destroyed)), but enough of the countryside seems to be similar for me to believe it did explode in a very big way.
Before and After pictures:
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Carlo Graziani
@Steeplejack: This.
If a squadron of F-16s were delivered today, there would be nobody to fly them effectively, and to whatever extent they managed to get into the air, the wear and tear from just flying—not even combat—would ground the lot for months. They would be utterly useless.
I’m sorry but this whole “Ukraine could have won the war if they’d gotten everything in April 2021″ argument is, well, I won’t call it what I’d like to, but it makes no sense whatever. Nobody, not even the United States, works in the infinite-resource approximation. At every stage of new weapons supply, the question has always been ” this quarter we have only X M$ worth of weapons that we can supply in the next tranche [where X is in the 500-2000 range] and what use of those scarce resources can best assist the Ukrainians in the battle as it will stand by the time these resources are delivered.” That’s how the Ukrainians got HIMARS, with its eye-wateringly complex logistical tail, and also how they got M-777 howitzers, and the increasingly complex air defense and air defense-suppression toys, and all the infantry support gear they needed for the successful Kherson and Kharkiv ops.
All the toys that we’re talking about now will not materialize in an eyeblink, nor will they enter Ukrainian service instantaneously. To believe that this is remotely possible is just magical thinking. I don’t blame the Ukrainians for asking for everything in the arsenal. But seriously, folks: the 2022 campaign was a shattering success in part because the complex process of upgunning the UA in the middle of a shooting war was managed well, rather than turning into the shambles that it could have been had they been showered with weapons that they couldn’t use. And the 2023 campaign isn’t even underway yet and already there’s moaning that the West is holding the UA back.
Really? Come on. This is war, not an action movie. The UA is demonstrably being supplied within ever-changing real-world constraints according to ever-changing current requirements. So far as I can tell the process has been managed near-optimally. There is no magic bullet, or wonder weapon, that will roll back the Russians. There is just the willingness of Ukrainians to risk their lives and die for their country, and our obligation to get them the best tools that we can to see to it that their sacrifices are worth their horrible cost. This process is subject to real-world constraints. If it weren’t, every piss-ant country could be the equal of a NATO member. Somehow, we keep imagining that those constraints can just be wished away. They can’t.
Steeplejack
@Carlo Graziani:
Also, there have been pretty solid hints and indications that a lot of the matériel held in storage by various NATO countries was not as deployment-ready as we would have liked. *Cough* Looking at you, Germany, and your Leopard tanks.
Wall Street Journal, January 20:
I’m sure they were not alone in being caught short, so to speak.
Jay
@Steeplejack:
Yeah.
Got a “named brand” pipe threader in one day, Everybody else either bailed, or said wtf?
Made in 1960 to 1961.
No specs, no parts list, no blueprints, no manual, (always read the manual)
8 mechanical arms, with jaws that would “grab” the pipe, adjust for diameter, and feed it forward into the cutting tool.
So with nothing to go on, micrometres, lazers all the fun stuff, several trials, figured out it was “true”,
that was fun.
Unteachable.
YY_Sima Qian
@Another Scott: Chinese vendors account for ~ 90% of the civilian drone market, w/ DJI alone accounting for ~65%. If Ukraine obtaining civilian drones (via purchase or donation), it is almost certain to be made in China, & more likely than not DJI kit. It has not been an issue to date. They make a difference at the tactical level, not so much at the operational or strategic levels.
In any case, it is far more important to China’s interests that its companies continue to dominate the civilian drone industry, & that DJI continues to be the undisputed leader technologically & commercially (in spite of the restrictions placed by the USG), than whether Russia wins or loses a battle in Donbas.
I don’t think Xi cares. Right now he is busy hosting the Central Asian leaders at Xi’an, to cement its increasingly dominant position in the region, at Russia’s expense. & there is not much Putin can or would do about it.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
yurp.
In US/NATO doctrine, 6 months to be a “rifleman”.
6 months to be squad trained,
6 months to Platoon,
6 months to Company,
Another 6 Months to Battalion.
There were guy’s with 3 years in, wanting it to be a career, that I didn’t trust to tie their own combat boots.
It ain’t easy but getting shot at speeds up the process.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: the logic you describe would seem to lead to the conclusion that Xi does care: his interest is best served by the longest war possible. And since russia appears to be losing at this point, that would mean to support Russia just enough to keep the war going. After all, he can’t gather in the central Asian nations if Russia wins, And if Russia loses Then he loses his proxy with which to beat NATO.
YY_Sima Qian
@Another Scott: The Economist article G&T referred to reported that a single factory in Ukraine was converting ~ 5K DJI Magic 3s a month into suicide drones for the Ukraine Army.
Carlo Graziani
Hey, apropos of nothing: are any of you guys thinking of being in Chicago this summer? I’d happily host some kind of gathering, or even individuals passing through. I own a brick wood-fired pizza oven, and a 4′ wide grill that I burn wood embers from the oven in rather than charcoal (gas grills are a loathsome and whorish innovation). My back yard is my addition combo living room, dining room and kitchen in the summer months.
BJ in Chicago, anyone?
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: That has to be balanced by disruption of China’s relations w/ the EU that Russia’s invasion (& China’s entente w/ Russia in this context) causes, as well as the disruption to the Russia-Belarus-EU sections of the BRI land corridors. To put it most cynically, whatever advantages China is likely to gain over Russia is likely already baked in at this point. Even if the invasion ends tomorrow, it will take Russia a long time to recover. Continued warfare will only bring diminishing returns in terms of additional leverage over Russia, but greater risks in terms of EU relations & BRI integration.
My point to Scott is that Xi is unlikely to care if DJI & other Chinese vendors are selling civilian drones in the hundreds of thousands destined for Ukraine, to be used against the Russians. China’s core interests in the war is to sustain a non-western friendly regime in Moscow (whether it has Putin at its head or not). I don’t think Xi or anyone in the CCP leadership particularly cares about the ultimate outcome. This is not their fight. I am sure Xi prefers the conflict to be frozen as soon as possible, w/ Russia keeping some/ most of its conquests. However, whether the wars ends in Ukrainian victory, Russian victory (pretty much impossible), continued stalemate, or an Armstice, China will seek to maximize its advantage. China sending a special envoy to Ukraine, Poland, Germany, France & Russia should be seen in this light.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: Sounds enticing! However, w/ flight very slow to resume between China & the U.S., I am probably not coming this the US this year…
Jesse
@Omnes Omnibus: also take issue. The US is by far the biggest supporter of Ukraine. AFAICS the US if often leading the way. The UK has, of late, also been taking some initiative.
if the US is such a laggard, what words describe Germany, for instance?
Geminid
Mr. Ponomarenko’s point about the Ukrainian lives lost because of Western reluctance to supply advanced weapon systems is relatively true. I’m not sure how well it applies to the F-16, though. These fighter jets would enhance Ukraines air defenses to be sure, but not that much more than the anti-air missile systems like Patriots, IRIS-T etc that have finally been provided.
Those systems should have been supplied earlier. I am not so sure about the F-16. Given Russian air defense capabilities, F-16s would not have survived flying at the altitude at which they and their missiles are most effective. They require better runways than the jets Ukraine has, and would not have been as easily hidden from Russian attacks while on the ground. Plus, there are the questions of training and maintenance others have discussed.
Betty
OT: I just want to let Adam know that his friend Rick Coplen is running again to take on Scott Perry in PA District 10. Woohoo! First donation made.
Another Scott
@YY_Sima Qian: Thanks for your perspective.
My comment about Xi was mainly a general feeling based on the way he has reined in those who are perceived as being too powerful – Jack Ma, etc. Sending a million JDI drones to Ukraine would change the balance of power in a big way, a strategic way in my opinion, and Xi would want to control that. That’s another reason why it would not happen (the main reason being – JDI can’t make that many quickly).
My $0.02.
Thanks again.
Cheers,
Scott.
YY_Sima Qian
@Another Scott: Xi reined in Alibaba (& Chinese platform companies such as Tencent, Pinduoduo, Baidu, & DiDi, etc.) for several reasons: they had developed into monopolies & oligopolies & engaged in egregious anticompetitive behavior, they took advantage of their users including abuse of private data, the efficiencies they brought to the real economy had peaked & they were turning toward rent seeking, they were sucking up private capital at the expense of hard tech (such as semiconductors), their expansions into fintech had posed systemic risks to China’s financial system, & they had become so powerful & captured influential elements in the Party-State bureaucracy to protect their parochial interests & challenge central government initiatives (such as efforts to regulate their fintech activities). Since then, Xi’s priority for economic development has been on hard tech that produce tangible products for the real economy and help China overcome the restrictions imposed by the U.S. The dynamic is not dissimilar to how the Western world has soured in the internet titans such as Facebook & Google, although the rapidity & severity of the new policy implementation is the result of the CCP’s hard authoritarianism & Xi’s more centralized style.
DJI is one of the darlings in the new environment, pioneering the use of drones/automation/robotics to increase efficiency from agriculture to industry to logistics.
If Ukraine placed an order for a million drones directly from DJI, it may prove awkward for the company & could attract scrutiny from Beijing (servicing the order then becomes a political decision w/ geopolitical implications). However, Ukraine will not do that & does not need to do that. The Ukrainian government & donors could purchase through hundreds of stores/distributors/intermediaries scattered throughout the world. DJI drones have made it into Russian use through similar channels. Neither DJI nor the Chinese government has so far shown much concern as to how the drones are used once they are sold. I think DJI had placed a geo-fence around the regions near the front, but probably easily circumvented.
Wanderer
@Carlo Graziani: Thank you for stating the obvious. I was an instructor for the US Army Command and General Staff school and the the near miraculous planning and supply chain management that has been implemented by the US and NATO will be a case study in how to respond effectively for years to come