(Image by NEIVANMADE)
President Zelenskyy is attending the G7 Summit today. The Financial Times delineates his challenge.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy is taking his pitch for support beyond his western allies with a scene-stealing appearance at the G7 summit this weekend, confronting the leaders of India and Brazil after they chose not to back sanctions against Russia.
The Ukrainian president’s first visit to Asia since the war began has brought him face to face with India’s prime minister Narendra Modi and he is also due to meet Brazil’s president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — the leaders of two crucial developing countries who have sought to maintain close ties with Moscow despite its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The pair have also obfuscated over who is to blame for the conflict, in which Kyiv is preparing a counter-offensive.
After his similarly unexpected decision to attend an Arab League meeting in Saudi Arabia on Friday on the way to Hiroshima, Zelenskyy’s G7 appearance will test his efforts to expand his support coalition beyond Nato states and US allies.
Brendan Boyle, a Democratic congressman and co-chair of the EU caucus in the House of Representatives, said Zelenskyy’s attendance was a “unique opportunity” for him to leverage peer pressure on Modi and Lula in the presence of G7 leaders.
“It’s one thing for Modi or Lula to ignore Zelenskyy while at home,” said Boyle. “But it’s quite different to try to ignore him when you also have the president of the US standing right next to him.”
Zelenskyy’s surprise move to fly to Saudi Arabia and then Japan was kept secret for security reasons until Friday, but agreed by all attendees in the weeks leading up to the event, officials said. He arrived in Japan on Saturday.
The opportunity for Zelenskyy to speak directly with Modi, Lula and other guests from developing nations was “the best way to explain why he is coming, as he has already met with all the G7 leaders”, said one senior G7 diplomat. “It is part of our joint outreach [to developing countries] and is a major step for Zelenskyy.”
“The Japanese would not just go ahead without properly consulting and preparing extensively,” the senior diplomat added.
Much more at the link.
President Zelenskyy gave a very brief address to Ukrainians from the G7. Video below, English transcript posted below the video on the Office of the President of Ukraine’s YouTube channel after the jump as it is not yet posted on the Ukrainian presidential website.
We attract as many countries and leaders as possible for the sake of Ukraine
The first day of meetings and negotiations in Japan on the eve of the G7 summit. I met with Giorgia Meloni, head of the Italian government. We looked at how we can now enhance with Italy our capabilities to protect life from Russian air terror. Talks with Rishi – Mr. Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. I thanked him for the leadership in developing our capabilities in the sky: the United Kingdom very actively tackles the issue of modern fighter jets for Ukraine, and these are historical things. I spoke with Prime Minister of India Modi. Serious talk. I gave an update on the progress of our Peace Formula. I believe India will participate in the restoration of the rules-based international order that all free nations clearly need. I spoke with President of the European Council Charles Michel. Security, defense, the economy, our common policy is the unification of the potentials of Ukraine and the entire European Union. I thank you, Charles, for your sincere, unwavering and effective support I met with French President Macron. We regularly exchange views on the security situation, consider various options for our joint defense and political actions. And this time too. Meaningful conversation. Adds confidence in our movement to the victory of Ukraine. There was also a meeting with Mr. Scholz, Chancellor of Germany. There was also a meeting with Chancellor of Germany Scholz. We discussed with Olaf how we can speed up a fair peace for Ukraine, and how we can strengthen our joint work within the G7. There is no such day that Ukraine does not become stronger! Glory to Ukraine!
Japan. G7. Important meetings with partners and friends of Ukraine. Security and enhanced cooperation for our victory. Peace will become closer today.
— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) May 20, 2023
Last night, russians launched the 11th air attack on Kyiv since the beginning of May.
All 18 kamikaze drones were shot down. Thanks to our air defense, no one was hurt.— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 20, 2023
The cost:
The first photo was taken in early November 2022. Vitaliy and Natalka Kyrkach-Antonenko are overjoyed at the prospect of having a child. Vitaliy returned to the front lines and died within days. Their daughter, Vitalina, was born in May 2023.
russia cannot destroy Ukrainians.… pic.twitter.com/DUleQfrvys— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 20, 2023
Full text of the MOD’s tweet:
The first photo was taken in early November 2022. Vitaliy and Natalka Kyrkach-Antonenko are overjoyed at the prospect of having a child. Vitaliy returned to the front lines and died within days. Their daughter, Vitalina, was born in May 2023.
russia cannot destroy Ukrainians. Ukraine will survive.
Bakhmut:
The Deep State map indicates that Wagner forces have taken the western part of Bakhmut. It appears only the SW corner where the MiG-17 monument was located is still help by Ukrainian forces.https://t.co/DRnWX3CLje pic.twitter.com/t6Eg6F3r9p
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 20, 2023
I just spoke by phone with Serhiy Cherevatyi, military spokesman for Ukraine's eastern district. He said that while Russian forces control most of Bakhmut, fighting is ongoing on Chaikovskoho St and a handful of city blocks in the W/NW, and Wagner hasn't established full control.
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 20, 2023
Deputy Defense Minister Maliar: “Heavy fighting in Bakhmut. The situation is critical. At the same time, our troops maintain defense in the [western] district. As of now, our defenders control certain industrial and infrastructure facilities of this area and the private sector.”
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 20, 2023
F-16 watch:
Looks like Santa Claus does exists.
A new jet coalition was born today! Thank you for the decision my colleagues @SecDef @BWallaceMP @DefensieMin @DedonderLudivin@troelslundp
Ukrainian pilots are looking forward to starting their training on F-16 fighter jets. They will now be… https://t.co/AtNosK5oUY— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) May 20, 2023
Here’s the full text of Minister Reznikov’s tweet:
Looks like Santa Claus does exists. A new jet coalition was born today! Thank you for the decision my colleagues @SecDef @BWallaceMP @DefensieMin @DedonderLudivin @troelslundp
Ukrainian pilots are looking forward to starting their training on F-16 fighter jets. They will now be able to support their brothers and sisters-in-arms on land and on sea to win this war. F-16 were crafted to beat the bad guys. Their time is now!
I want to just briefly address something because I think there might be some confusion. My frustration with the pace of providing material, equipment, and training to the Ukrainians is a frustration with the risk aversion that has driven the sequencing we’ve seen over the past year. If Ukrainian Air Force personnel had been put into US and/or NATO or non-NATO ally and partner training on how to fly and maintain F-16s or F/A-18s, or Gripens beginning last summer then the Ukrainians would be ready to field whichever of these would be made available for the summer 2023 campaign. Instead the Ukrainians are now under pressure to demonstrate significant success in this campaign to justify continued support in their defense against Putin’s genocidal re-invasion that will drag into 2024. My issue isn’t they should be given everything at once. Trust me I’ve had to sit through the Defense Management (previously doing business as the Defense Enterprise Management) course in the resident course at the US Army War College. I understand how the pieces work despite not being a logistician. And that you can’t just dump a bunch of stuff on the Ukrainians and say “here you go, have at it!” But what you can do is establish the conditions so that when the policy and strategy discussions in DC, London, Berlin, Paris, and several other places that aren’t Kyiv catch up to the reality that we’re now in, the Ukrainians don’t have another six to twelve month minimum delay because they have to still get the training.
HIROSHIMA, Japan — America and its allies plan to provide F-16s to Ukraine — although the fighter jets may not necessarily come directly from the United States — as part of a long-term effort to strengthen the country’s security, a senior Biden administration official said Friday.
The timing for when Ukraine will receive the fighter jets — and which countries will provide them — remains unclear, but the official said the planes would not be used for Ukraine’s upcoming counteroffensive against Russia. In the coming months, the U.S. and its allies “will decide when to actually provide jets, how many we will provide, and who will provide them,” the official said. The news comes as President Joe Biden on Friday informed leaders of leading industrialized nations that the U.S. will support efforts to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s.
“Discussions about improving the Ukrainian air force reflect our long-term commitment to Ukraine’s self-defense,” the senior administration official said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly called on the U.S. to provide F-16s, but Biden had so far refused the requests. In February, Biden said in an interview with ABC News that U.S. military advice showed that Ukraine did not need F-16s at the time.
“I’m ruling it out for now,” he had said about sending F-16s to Ukraine.
Officials from France and Poland had previously expressed openness to providing Ukraine with the advanced fighter jets. But any transfer of the American-made planes requires permission from the U.S. government.
News of the decision to provide Ukraine with F-16s comes as Biden attends a Group of Seven summit in Japan.
The U.S. and its allies’ joint effort to train Ukrainian pilots on the jets could start in the coming weeks, the official said. The training “will take place outside Ukraine at sites in Europe and will require months to complete,” the official continued.
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan later told reporters in Japan that Biden had shared plans with G-7 allies to supply the fighter jets.
In order to have a long term effort to strengthen Ukraine’s security there has to be a Ukraine. Ukrainian pilots and air crews coming out of training for F-16s in the next sixty days, training that began a year or so ago, would help to ensure that. Ukrainian pilots and air crews coming to the US, Germany, Poland, Britain, etc sometime over the next six months for up to a year of training is just another demonstration of the overly excessive risk aversion in regard to letting Ukraine be the primary kinetic and lethal theater of operations in Russia’s world war against “the West.” A world war we are losing because we refuse to accept we’re actually in it.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
I’m hiding from the heat under a gift from Japan. I hope our President @ZelenskyyUa will also return with gifts from Japan🙂 pic.twitter.com/c1FonS4Fkj
— Patron (@PatronDsns) May 20, 2023
There appears to be an issue with the link for tonight’s video from Patron’s official TikTok. It won’t embed here. Here’s the link if you want to click across on your own.
Open thread!
bbleh
The fight for Bakhmut has gone on for what … 8-9 months? Like since last summer? Tens or hundreds of thousands dead, a city destroyed and … ?? The whole thing shrivels my soul. This must be what a lot of WWI was like.
That said, if/when Ukraine finally withdraws from the last few thousand square meters, what a victory for them! Mighty Russia, plus Wagner, fought to a complete standstill. Tell me anyone expected THAT a year and a half ago.
Yutsano
Ukraine will let Bakhmut go most likely but the cost to Russia will be hard to calculate. I still think there was an objective here, and I think Ukraine has met it. Let them try to hold a wreck of a city that they caused. As symbolic victories go it’s a rather hollow one.
Geminid
@Yutsano: I don’t think Russia will hang on to Bakhmut very long. A month fom now, the new meme might be, “Bakhmut Folds!”
HinTN
Adam – Markos had some scepticism about the F-16s being able to fly from the improvised airfields to which Ukraine must resort. His point is mostly that they need a clean strip because the air intake is so low. Any thoughts on this, both tactically and strategically?
trollhattan
Thanks, Adam!
Informative article on how Storm Shadow impacts Russia, similarly to how HIMARS did last year.
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-adapted-himars-ukraine-storm-shadow-missiles-bring-fear-back-2023-5
For the kaboomski collection, an armored vehicle virtually vanishes after a drone strike.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1659481263420440577?cxt=HHwWgoC8mdba1IcuAAAA
Adam L Silverman
@HinTN: They have a very specific runway requirement. And that’s been a major problem and why a bunch of folks thing the F/A-18s or the Gripens might be better. Given the amount of time it will take for the training, the Ukrainians will have plenty of time to build runways designed for F-16s.
Anoniminous
So Putzass (Prigozhin) has declared VICTORY!!! Bakhmut has FALLEN!!!! and is … planning? … ordering? … a full withdrawal of Wagner forces from the city. Wagner will hand the city over to some number of unspecified “Russian Forces” at some unspecified time. After the hand-over Wagner will be moved to Sudan where they can rob, rape, murder, and torture without the drawbacks of facing an enemy capable of shooting back.
In my head the Ukrainian advances to the north and south of the city have him scared and he knows if they don’t haul ass they are going to be surrounded.
Dimitri at WarTranslated has an interesting take.
PJ
Back in March, there was news that the US was training, but not training (“familiarizing”), a few Ukrainian pilots with F-16s: I’m guessing that was a trial for the decision to provide the jets this past week. Interestingly, the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Colin Kahl, quoted in the articles about 18 months needed for training, this past week announced he’s resigning in July.
Maxim
Thank you, Adam. I don’t usually comment, but I always read these threads and appreciate your work in bringing them to us.
It is very frustrating that we have been so slow to reach this point with the jets and training. Was there some myopic thinking that Russia would give up, or that Ukraine would win without this becoming a necessity? (Rhetorical questions.) Risk aversion, sure, don’t rattle the loony-nukes dictator too much, but we should have understood this was inevitable and been better prepared. And not waited until there was the risk of it being too little, too late.
Jay
@PJ:
the articles that I read on the “familiarization” program was that it was to evaluate the skills of the Ukrainian pilots, and noted that the USAF evaluators believed that Ukrainian Pilots could be trained on F-16’s and it’s combat techniques in as little as 2 months.
HinTN
@Adam L Silverman: I think the F/A 18 or the Gripen would be a superior fit for the situation. Building clean runways for the Russians to destroy or damage on a regular basis seems counterproductive.
Geminid
@HinTN: The Gripen does seem like the best plane for the purpose. One analyst said the anti-air missile they carry performs better when fired from a low altitude than does the F-16’s missile, and that Russian anti-air capabilities will force any jet to fly low.
It could be that the Gripen was ruled out because there aren’t enough of them. Or maybe Sweden wants NATO membership before it starts sending Gripens to Ukraine.
Jay
@Geminid:
the Gripen is still a production airframe. Nobody has surplus Gripens sitting around in storage.
There are a bunch of F-16’s and F-18’s that were upgraded, wrapped in shrink wrap and parked in hangers, as either newer airframes were produced or they were being replaced in service by Eurofighters and F-35’s.
YY_Sima Qian
The Gripen is a much newer plane than the F-16, it is the premier fighter for the countries that fly them, & there are not that many of them around. That means knowledge base for maintenance/repairs is not as widespread, & attrition replacement could be a challenge, even spare parts. The countries that fly the older (though partially modernized) F-16s are expecting them to be replaced by F-35s. Dozens of countries in the world fly the F-16s, thousands are in storage.
OTOH, F/A-18s would be a good alternative, avoiding some of the issues w/ the Gripen, & having longer range/greater payload. There are dozens in storage in Australia. I do wonder if the F/A-18’s greater range is causing hesitation in the Biden Administration.
Edit: What Jay said.
YY_Sima Qian
A minor footnote about Zelenskyy’s travel to Japan: he flew on a French government plane, which was on a course due east about to enter Thai airspace, before making a sharpe left turn north then east, cutting a shorter path across Chinese airspace. Before the sudden turn, its course seemed to suggest a detour around China.
Perhaps someone in Beijing decided at the last minute that forcing the plane carrying Zelenskyy’s to fly around China is a bad look, especially to Europe, and/or Macron appealed to Xi for a small favor. Zelenskyy’s plane had already overflown Indian & Myanmar.
Chris
Someone trained plenty of Saudi pilots in Florida back in the day?
Geminid
@Geminid: Speaking of Swedish NATO membership: Turkish President Erdogan was asked about it in a recent interview, and he said that he remains opposed. That may be because he’s still running for reelection. I guess we’ll find out after the May 28 runoff. Also, on June 1st revisions that tighten up Sweden’s laws that prohibit material aid to foreign terrorist organizations will take effect. That’s been the biggest bone of contention between Erdogan and the Swedes.
One of the gripes Westerners have against Erdogan is that he will not follow the US lead in this and other foreign policy areas. Turkish citizens view that as a plus, though. Many of them carry a lot of animus towards the US, in part because of George Bush’s invasion of Iraq. Turkiye has had to deal with with the destabilization that war brought to the region ever since.
Jay
Lets see, Vishyvanka Day, May 18, coincided with 200,000 day, (total by the end of the day was 200,548 dead or wounded Orc’s), May 19 was NAFO day, also F-16 Day,……..
will they get an aircraft carrier for 250,000?
Adam L Silverman
@PJ: Good! Hopefully his replacement is better.
Jay
Roberto el oso
@Chris: trained them to fly but not to land.
Jay
counterfactual
On F16 vs. F18 vs. Gripen: a few weeks ago the YouTuber Perun did one of his hour-long powerpoints on the subject. He says that an Air Force picks the missiles and bombs that it wants then looks for the plane that can load them. The Gripen would be a good close air support system, but the F16 would be better if Ukrainian strategy is for air superiority or long-range bombing.
Gin & Tonic
Current Ukrainian meme:
– What do you do for a living?
– Oh, I handle people remotely
– Psychologist?
– Sniper
Carlo Graziani
@Gin & Tonic: That’s awesome. I suppose that means that artillerists are practitioners of remote group therapy…
Carlo Graziani
@Anoniminous: Apparently, Prigozhin has declared that Wagner’s Bakhmut forces are going to be relived by MOD troops by May 25 (next Thursday) so that Wagner can rest and refit.
That’s just hilarious. A Russian unit of any size rotating out of the battlefield in an orderly manner to reconstitute its combat power would be a novelty in this war. Assuming that MOD will allow Wagner this rare luxury while the regular army makes panicked preparations to greet the expected Ukrainian offensive is precious, particularly when most Russian senior officers would enjoy seeing all of Wagner turned into meat grinder fodder.
And all this is to happen in five days! In contact with UA infantry and artillery! A withdrawal under fire coupled to a relief op by troop formations with whom they have no cooperation or coordination! Arranged by officers who share nothing but mutual loathing!
I really, really hope they try it.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani
Wagner has been pulling their “professional core” out of Bakhmut for a while, shipping them off to the CAR, from where they go to Sudan, where Wagner is rebranding and has a rich new contract with the RSF to loot, rape and genocide some place where they people can’t shoot back.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
and when Bakhmut becomes a kettle and falls. Wagner can point the finger elsewhere.
Jay
Explains a lot about Moscovia,……..
Carlo Graziani
@Jay: Wagner pulling a few tens of cadre officers out of Bakhmut is not even remotely the same thing as Wagner getting relieved from their positions in Bakhmut. The latter is a potential clusterfuck of such colossal proportions that MOD probably won’t even supply the transport required to support it.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
by some accounts, Wager is down to 10k or less in Ukraine, from the 40k contract soldiers they started with, half of what remain are mobliks and convicts.
In Syria, Lybia, Mozambique, the CAR, and now Sudan, Wagner’s key role is “specialists”, not grunts. Pilots, AD crew, tanks, rocket forces, sappers, snipers and trainers. Most of those in Bakhmut, arn’t at the zero line, they are a kilometer to 500 kilometers back.
We will see how it goes.
Jay
Chetan Murthy
@Jay: one says to oneself but surely the Moscow and St Petersburg phone books can be found online, perhaps in downloadable form on some dark website. Instead of just submitting 200 or 300 entries, why not submit the entire contents of those phone books in some random order? Imagine how thankful the residents of Moscow will be when they find out that they’ve been volunteered for the special military operation?
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
Ton’s of “public data” in Ruzzia is hacked and online, but, most people use mobile phones, so if you are using a mobile to flood the site, the cookies will autofill your phone number,
So you gotta do it the same way that Nigerian Princes do,
Chetan Murthy
@Jay: Oh, uh, I assumed one would use a, y’know, headless *program*. Not a real browser (or, eew, on a phone). Just sniff the traffic coming from the phone (if it’s an app and not a site) and then write a program to generate the same thing.
If that’s what you mean by “the way the Nigerian Princes do”, sure, that’s cool.
ETA: I’d assume one would direct the actual traffic thru TOR (the onion router) so that the IP addresses would be all jumbled, too.
Chetan Murthy
@Chetan Murthy: Heh, as I think about it, I remember reading that the US cyber folks had decapitated a Russian botnet called “Snake” (?) Maybe they could take it over and point it at this site (or, heck, all Russian sites) and DDOS ’em (after flooding this site with every phone number in Russia).
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
The cell phone generator app, tagged in the post, makes it look like a local call number, (actually Ruzzian)* while trashing the IP into garbage,
The same way I get 30 calls a week in Mandarin or Cantonese from the “CRA” claiming I owe them $100k and they are going to seize my house, but for a mere $10k in a digital transfer to “XXXXXXXX”, I can make it all go away.
*the calls I get are either a 1-800 fake, or an Ottawa fake, which is stupid because the local, massive CRA office, is in Richmond, just across the river. What, can’t fake a #604 prefix?
Maxim
@Carlo Graziani:
Rotating tag!
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
NAFO’s on it.
Barry
@Carlo Graziani: “A Russian unit of any size rotating out of the battlefield in an orderly manner to reconstitute its combat power would be a novelty in this war. ”
Or perhaps, the shattered remnants of Wagner.
Geminid
I found a couple recent Ukraine-related articles in navalnews.com. One was about a new UUV (Uncrewed Underwater Vehicle) produced by the Ukrainian entity Brave1. The TLK-150 is “quite a small drone,” 2.5 meters long. It has a mast with cameras and communications devices and an undisclosed range and a warhead of unknown size. Brave1 has planned two larger UUVs “but it is unclear whether these drones have been built.” It sounds like the TLK-150 is ready for deployment.
Ukraine has already used USVs (Uncrewed Submersible Vehicles) to attack Russian ships at Sevastopol, notably last October when in response Russia threatened to shut down the Black Sea grain export deal. The US and the UK have provided Ukraine with UUVs for purposes like mine clearing, but Naval News describes the TLK-150 as Ukraine’s “first indigenous UUV.”
The other navalnews.com article was headlined: “Russia’s Black Sea Fleet Gets New Corvette…Kind Of.,” May 17, 2023. Last week the corvette Mercury, with advanced radar and anti-aircraft missile systems, was commissioned into the Black Sea Fleet. The corvette was built at the Baltic Sea port of Kaliningrad though, and is not expected to join the Black Sea Fleet unless and until the war is over, since Turkiye closed the Bophorus Straits to warships when the war began.
So it may be that the Merkury and the Ukrainian corvette Hetman Ivan Mazeppa will not get a glimpse of each other until 2025. The Mazeppa was christened last October at an Istanbul shipyard and is expected to be ready for service next year. Defense Minister Resnikov says that its home port will be Sevastopol.