Oh, and a bonus pic forwarded to me by MomSense.
— Mueller, She Wrote (@MuellerSheWrote) May 21, 2023
Open thread.
Come for the politics, stay for the snark.
The willow is too close to the house.
Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?
rich, arrogant assholes who equate luck with genius
The most dangerous place for a black man in America is in a white man’s imagination.
Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.
So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.
In short, I come down firmly on all sides of the issue.
This year has been the longest three days of putin’s life.
if you can’t see it, then you are useless in the fight to stop it.
Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?
I didn’t have alien invasion on my 2023 BINGO card.
“woke” is the new caravan.
Usually wrong but never in doubt
Impressively dumb. Congratulations.
Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.
Take your GOP plan out of the witness protection program.
fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)
Authoritarian republicans are opposed to freedom for the rest of us.
Technically true, but collectively nonsense
Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?
Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?
I wonder if trump will be tried as an adult.
Teach a man to fish, and he’ll sit in a boat all day drinking beer.
Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.
Jeffro
stay strong, Team Biden! make it obvious (BLINDINGLY OBVIOUS, for our blessed snooze media and our ‘low-info’ voters) that this is not a “both sides” issue
SFAW
I like the press release/statement, but a large part of me wishes it had been written by The Rude Pundit.
Ocotillo
Yesterday, Meet the Press came on the TV and I was too lazy to walk over to the remote and turn it off. Anyway, Chuck Todd was confident this is all bluster and posturing by “both sides” and a deal will be reached before the deadline. We are so screwed.
Madeleine
Um. I thought Pres. Biden would not negotiate the budget as part of debt ceiling negotiations. BUT isn’t that exactly what he’s doing? Maybe I’m just being dim.
Eolirin
@Madeleine: Not negotiating was his opening position in the negotiations.
bbleh
I’m officially nervous now. I had thought enough people — very much including Republican donors and small/medium-business owners — would see the sense in not tanking the economy, but the crazies have the bit between their teeth and think hurting Biden’s re-election chances is worth it, and McQarthy seems increasingly hapless and interested mainly in holding on to his title, so I don’t know whether they can be corralled.
Biden can still break the glass on one of the workarounds, which likely would avert wholesale disaster, but the markets would still go nuts, and what starts there doesn’t necessarily stay there.
See what happens when you give children weapons of mass destruction?
jonas
@Ocotillo:
Shorter MSM: “Why can’t Democrats just be reasonable and give Republicans everything they want?”
schrodingers_cat
I trust that the Biden team has gamed this out. White people’s party wants to burn everything down rather than share the prosperity. Anyway as long as the majority of white people keep voting for Republicans we are going to be in for a bumpy ride. It is what it is.
Matt McIrvin
So are we upset because he’s gonna cave or are we upset because he’s not gonna cave?
Madeleine
@Eolirin: Yeah. Nice point.
Michael Bersin
Jason Smith (r) is chomping at the bit to make Missouri’s 8th Congressional District, one of the poorest in the nation, suffer.
They will. He’ll get reelected with 70% 0f the vote in 2024.
Hostage taker has demands
sdhays
I find it really hard to personally engage with this “crisis”. I guess it comes down to this is a fucking made up “crisis” that lives in the realm of high-finance and Congressional wankery. I know that it has the potential to damage everybody, but I just don’t believe that will happen. High finance wankery isn’t subject to normal rules. If the shit really seems to hit the fan, all of a sudden emergency tools materialize that otherwise would be verboten.
And this time, the tools are even obvious. There are the bond accounting flimflammery that can kick the can far down the road or even end it? The 14th Amendment makes the debt ceiling law seemingly unconstitutional on its face. I think the hope is to break McQarthy’s majority, but I don’t think it’s going to happen at this point.
Now we’re just waiting for the sirens to start blaring to make it palatable to the powers that be to use the obvious unilateral tools. I may be wrong, but that’s how all this nonsense feels.
bbleh
@sdhays: one would like to assume the mandarins of High Finance have a kit of emergency measures they can deploy at least to save themselves if not anybody else. Unfortunately, the financial panics of the 19th and early 20th century indicate otherwise. At heart they are herd animals, and herd animals are vulnerable to stampeding
I still think it’s more likely than not that we will avoid the worst case, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be a lot of furniture smashed in the meantime.
Baud
@Matt McIrvin:
Yes!
rikyrah
@jonas:
Uh huh
Not one of those muthaphuckas ask any Republican why they had no problem passing a clean debt ceiling when Dolt45 was President.
Geminid
@bbleh: One possible outcome is a debt ceiling increase brought to the House floor through a discharge petition. California Rep. DeSaulnier laid the groundwork for one in January when he introduced little-noticed legislation that now is the subject of a discharge petition.
Discharge petitions are rarely if ever successful because House Majorities are typically too cohesive. This is unusual situation though, and the petition may come into play if House Republicans and Biden are still deadlocked going into June.
A successful petition would require 5 Republican defectors if the Democratic caucus unanimously supports the underlying legislation. I think the idea is to come up with a deal acceptable to the defectors as well as the White House and then amend DeSaulnier’s bill accordingly.
rikyrah
@schrodingers_cat:
no lie told
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Jamie Dimon is no doubt baffled to see himself ignored in favor of Marge Green, but she is the third largest fund-raiser in the caucus after Kevin and David-Duke-Without-the-baggage, and she does it with small donors. And I imagine that even fund-raising means less when she and Gaetz and Gosar can reach their people on social media.
mrmoshpotato
@jonas: Can’t we all just get along – by giving the GOP every spending cut they want?
Jeffro
it’s the same thing as always with the GOP: the “moderates” won’t speak up or do anything to rein in the nutjobs in their party.
it’s some combination of head-in-the-sand denial over how far gone their party is, laziness, and a desire to see Dems take a hit/refusal to agree with Dems on anything.
pretty much the same recipe on guns, abortion, etc. The less-insane Repubs don’t think it’ll be their kids’ school that gets shot up, their daughter who might need an abortion, their 401K that will tank if the country defaults on its debt…and they’re too lazy to do anything other than vote for president every 4 years.
soon there will be a lot of face-eating leopards lounging around, belching contentedly and remarking how easy that particular meal was to hunt down…
Another Scott
@bbleh:
FRED – 10 year Treasury yield doesn’t indicate any panic.
We knew we were going to end up in this place – where the bomb throwers continue to threaten to throw bombs until the last minute. Nothing has changed yet. There’s still a few days before they have to blink, or Biden goes 14th Amendment, or Yellen prints the consol bonds, or whatever.
I suspect there will be some sort of “deal”. We won’t like it all that much, but it won’t be horrible. And a new Democratic Congress can fix it.
Don’t panic!
It’s good that Biden wants to go to court after this is over to get them to say that the 14th Amendment applies and the GQP cannot do this going forward.
Eyes on the prizes.
Cheers,
Scott.
JoyceH
@bbleh:
I confess I’m more concerned than I have been in previous ‘stand-offs’, because one thing that’s become clear this year is that the GOP in the House is entirely under the control of people who don’t know the slightest thing about how the government works, or really about how anything in a modern society works. They could wind up plunging us into a global depression out of sheer ignorance. It sort of reminds me of the run-up to Brexit, when an entire party of a major modern nation ran full tilt at a cliff that everyone could see, chanting, ‘come on, it’ll be great!’
bbleh
@Another Scott: concur no sign of panic YET (stocks are still treading water too). And there is still a substantial probability that they’ll come up with something — at this point I would guess a month-or-two extension to “continue negotiations” — before enough cattle get spooked. But IMO any of the workarounds WOULD cause some degree of panic, because (1) they are of questionable legality and so wouldn’t fully resolve the impasse and (2) their use would demonstrate that the US political system is simply incapable of dealing with a basic function of government and has to resort to gimmicks.
@Geminid: concur a Discharge Petition would be the most elegant solution in many ways, because it would be entirely under existing House rules, it would avoid using a gimmick, AND it would allow McQarthy to save face by complaining loud and long about it, threatening the holdouts with eternal damnation, etc., so nobody has to admit defeat. And yes there are a few Republicans (ones who are retiring, ones in very purple districts) who might sign on, even though they likely would need extra security for a while. But it still requires threading a very fine needle — getting ALL (except maybe a few) Dems to sign on to it, getting the necessary number of Republicans (in the Senate too!), and jumping through all the procedural hoops very quickly.
Not despairing yet. But after this weekend, definitely nervous.
ARoomWithAMoose
@Geminid: Given application of section 4 of the 14th amendment has been broached by some non-pundit mouth pieces (Fetterman for example), the play seems to be to give congress till the deadline to pass a debt limit increase, if that fails and time runs out, to invoke the constitutional requirement to continue making good on debt and obligations (as already set by congress in the previous sessions) and direct the treasury to continue issuing debit as needed/required until such time as Congress sends something workable across to the President’s desk.
Congress needs to fail at its job first.
This squeaky chew toy needs to be taken away, it’s only ever used by a GOP majority House when a Dem is President. I’m not sure the House GOP is smart enough to game out they will lose this toy (the debt limit) permanently if they don’t cut a deal.
trollhattan
@Ocotillo: Chuck Always Wrong Todd? Wow, we really are screwed.
The Moar You Know
@mrmoshpotato: we could. But then they will just come back for more.
Why the fuck is Biden negotiating anything? Not his job. This is Schumer’s job. Where the fuck is he?
sdhays
@bbleh: They have options that they currently don’t want to use. I assume the main reasons to hold off are to avoid political blowback and to place enough pressure on Republicans that they break McQarthy.
But at some point, either no one believes any of this matters and we all go over the cliff together (weee!!), or they’ll decide it’s worth using one or more of those options and Republicans scream, gnash their teeth, and rend their garments for a week and then move on to the next “crisis”
ETA: I’m not really trying to argue that this is the actual state of things – I really don’t know. Just that I find it really hard to personally take it seriously for these reasons and I don’t think I’m alone.
Eolirin
@sdhays: The main reason to hold off is that they involve a great degree of risk on something so economically important that it will cause tangible and significant harm to people if it goes wrong, and that using them precludes further negotiation, so that has to definitively fail first.
Geminid
@bbleh: Well, the prospect of a successful petition certainly isn’t going to relieve any anxiety now, because if it happens at all it won’t be until the pressure is much greater than it is already. You and others may need a self care plan here; Pre-Traumatic Stress Disorder can be a terrible thing.
TriassicSand
My supposition is that they are “moderate” to get elected, but actually prefer the extreme positions.
Jeffro
@ARoomWithAMoose:
Amen!
That’s a good insight!
“Kevin, I’m good for some tiny slowing in the rate of growth here or there or whatever, but for anything other than that, I’m just going to call BS and move on. And you and the howler monkeys that own your rear end will never, ever have this fake leverage ever again – not over me, not over a future Dem president. You feelin’ me, Jack?”
Me likey!
sdhays
@Eolirin: Yep. That’s why I’m not in the second-guessing “do something now!!!” camp. But I do expect any officials in the administration to be prepared to save the country from itself with one or many of the apparently legal tools available when the time comes.
Matt McIrvin
Tech stocks have been rapidly rising for the past couple of months, after a period in which it seemed like they weren’t doing much. I’m not sure why. Maybe it’s the just the usual thing where companies have been doing layoffs and investors love layoffs.
Matt McIrvin
@JoyceH: Next time around they could try something way more extreme, like insisting on Biden and Harris resigning as a condition.
Roger Moore
@Eolirin:
That’s an excellent summary. Basically, we don’t want to try using the 14th Amendment because it doesn’t solve the problem definitively; it just moves it to the courts. It would be great if the Supreme Court decided the 14th Amendment made the debt ceiling unconstitutional, but if it ruled otherwise, we’d be up shit creek. There’s no way the Republicans would lift a finger to raise the ceiling while the issue is running through the courts, and the markets would still be spooked by the uncertainty of the court case’s outcome.
NutmegAgain
Speaking of government terrorists, The Boston Globe gave Henry Kissinger a nice warm tongue bath in the Opinion section today. Ew, yuck, disgusting. War criminal.
TriassicSand
Negotiating this year means there will be negotiating next year (or however long the temporary solution holds). Over enough years and enough compromises the Republicans will be able to inflict enough pain and cruelty to keep them satisfied for at least ten minutes. They’ll be back. And in these negotiations, America’s most vulnerable never benefit.
Geminid
@TriassicSand: Biden won’t accept a deal that does not raise the ceiling enough to last into 2025.
AntiCliche
Somehow the public is “evenly split” on whose fault it would be if the country were to default. That is the biggest political failure for Democrats in this whole affair. The messaging is not landing.
Quinerly
Was this on anyone’s bingo card? I’m gonna need a bigger bingo card…..
Is Tim Scott a virgin?
“It wasn’t a completely random question. He had spent his young adult life preaching abstinence until marriage. He’d give talks and mention that he was saving himself until marriage, and during my interview with the then-congressman he was, and continues to be unmarried.”
https://www.mediaite.com/weird/reporter-asks-tim-scott-if-hes-a-virgin/
up next Lyndsey Graham…… Is SC represented by two virgins?
TriassicSand
@Geminid:
The longer the time frame, the bigger the concessions?
Doesn’t that make sense? At least from a GOP point of view.
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
The only thing that makes sense from a GOP point of view is “uggh, unga bunga.”
TriassicSand
I don’t know, but I can guarantee you it is represented by two hypocrites, which could open the door to Scott’s being unmarried and not a virgin.
Jeffro
A little OT but it fills me with glee that trumpov might be done in by his own lawyers and their notes
patrick II
@The Moar You Know:
Schumer isn’t running for president next year, Biden is and he wants to publicly show he is negotiating so he doesn’t take the blame if things go wrong — which the Republicans hope is the case.
I don’t think either side is negotiating in good faith. The Republicans want the deal to fail (which is why the outrageous demands) and throw the economy into a thither and give Trump and Putin (their true leader) the election in 2024.
Biden knows this and is making what would be reasonable offers if he wasn’t dealing with crazy men with evil intent.
I also think it helps with any 14th Amendment Supreme Court case. Biden has checked the boxes of the possible political solutions and is left with only the 14th amendment to save the country’s if not the world’s economy.
I think Joe knows exactly what he is doing.
trollhattan
Really Mika, really?
TriassicSand
In Thuggish (aka GOPspeak), I’m pretty sure that means “starve the poor; feed the rich.”
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@TriassicSand: Ahhh. Did you study thuggish or did you just infer that from the meager attempts at legislation they put out?
Raoul Paste
We met with a banker this morning, who showed us market -projected interest rates for the next two years, which are thought to be lower than today’s
The banker said that the government wants lower interest rates for lower payments on the national debt, but that the Fed’s job was to fight inflation.with higher rates. Ordinarily, rates would be staying at current levels to sustain the fight against inflation..
So his opinion was that the lower projected interest rates means that the markets are betting on some kind of crisis occurring that forces interest rates down.
I’m not sure I buy this, but I’m passing it along
jonas
@Quinerly:
It appears to go back to an interview with a local reporter in 2012. Later in the conversation, he implies that he was unable to resist his sinful impulses in the end: “I just wish we all had more patience.”
I presume at some point we’ll have a statement from the woman in question about what it was like to cradle a softly weeping Scott afterwards.
Soprano2
@Another Scott: My biggest worry is that they’ll sell out the IRS, and all the progress they made this year in being able to help people and collect more taxes will be stymied. The IRS Is easy for everyone to hate on, but making them fall further and further behind technologically makes no sense for anyone. That doing this would actually make the deficit larger troubles the Republicans not at all, since they’ve been telling all their supporters that the IRS is going to hire thousands of armed agents who are going to kick their door in and arrest them for a minor problem with their tax return. We’ve made our own system worse with our predilection to hate on the IRS, when the truth is that if you make a math error they correct your return and…..that’s it, they correct your return. It’s insane that people pay tax preparers $50 or $100 to do an EZ form just because they’re terrified the IRS will ruin their lives if they make a math error.
ETA – my biggest worry is that it’s time to liquidate my mother’s investment accounts to distribute the money to the charities she designated, and this fuckery might reduce the amount the local animal rescue she left money to will get. I don’t give a shit about the others, they’re one of those pregnancy centers that lies to women about abortion, College of the Ozarks (probably because they hate on gay and trans people), and Judicial Watch *spit* and Alliance Defending Freedom *spit*. I wish I could do something about that, but unfortunately I can’t. I will say, I can’t wait for the animal rescue to get their money, they’ll probably name something after her.
Geminid
@TriassicSand: I don’t know. That may be what McCarthy hopes for, and that’s why the legislation his caucus passed would only be enough to last until next spring. Usually these debt ceiling raises are projected to last two years or more though, and I assume that’s what Biden will require.
As for concessions he’ll make, I’m not yet convinced he’ll make any substantial ones. I’ll just wait to see what they are. There are a lot of people out there warning that Biden’s giving up this! Or he’s giving up that! Not everyone doing the warning wanted to see Biden succeed in the first place, and they’re using this as another opportunity to tear down the Democratic Party. It’s even better than the East Palestine train wreck.
Quinerly
@TriassicSand:
Come sit by me on JoJo’s new flagstone patio. I will make drinks and have very good snacks qued up.
Quinerly
@jonas:
Brain bleach…..
Brachiator
@Matt McIrvin:
I had hoped that Biden would stand firm.
I don’t want the Democrats to give the Republicans anything. Or to give McCarthy any kind of victory, not even face saving.
jonas
@Jeffro:
I’m sure everyone involved had TS clearances as well.
They have Trump dead to rights on this. He’s going to jail. Not that it will stop him from running for office or fund raising or calling for Jan 6 Part 2, Electric Coup, but I think we’re inching closer to the orange jumpsuit horizon.
Jeffro
@AntiCliche: that’s just the Republican base/R voters refusing to put the blame where they know full well it belongs
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@Jeffro: It’s the Democrats’ fault and theirs alone for not bowing to the demands of the one and only rightful ruling party.
Omnes Omnibus
@Matt McIrvin: Define “cave.”
Jeffro
From your lips to the FSM’s ears.
Related, sort of: I have started to wonder if, 6 or 12 months from now, with all of trumpov’s various indictments and cases progressing and the future looking increasingly bleak for both him and the GOP, if one or more of the Republican candidates will just come out and say it
“If you nominate me…not only will I carry the MAGA banner proudly…but I promise to pardon former president trump on my first day in office.”
I’m serious. They’re THAT stupid. But it will be a question that they’ll all have to answer, because (as you noted) we will indeed be that much closer to the ‘orange jumpsuit horizion’
Jeffro
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation: so you’re saying they were sort of irresponsibly trying to “govern while democrat”?
The nerve of these people! ;)
LOL
The Kropenhagen Interpretation
@Omnes Omnibus: A cave is a big hole in the ground.
JPL
@The Moar You Know: You mean Chuck who didn’t want to debt negotiation during the lame duck session, cuz he thought it should be bipartisan in nature? You mean that Chuck?
TriassicSand
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation:
I minored in Thuggish. Know your enemy. I didn’t do that well, though, because it made almost no sense at all.
@Geminid:
I have no idea what Biden is doing or what, if any, concessions he’ll make. The insanity of this is truly mindboggling. Spending money and then deciding later if you’ll pay the bills is an idiotic way to run a government.
My biggest fear concerns the electorate, which is poorly informed and remarkably fickle.
Ezra Klein, today, wrote that the Democrats should have gotten rid of the debt ceiling when they had a chance (House and Senate majorities). But would that even have been possible with Manchin and Sinema having deciding votes? I don’t recall the issue even being raised. Does anyone here remember a suggestion that Democrats abolish the debt ceiling issue when they held majorities? I don’t.
JPL
@TriassicSand: That’s the big if, but I imagine, the deal would have been better than the one we’ll end up with.
randy khan
So far as I can tell, the only news about the Republican negotiating positions I’ve heard is the initial nutso budget (which came months after Biden’s) and the WaPo story today saying that they’d rejected a freeze because they insist on increasing the defense budget and cutting everything else. In other words, nearly all of the nutso stuff must still be their position.
Jeffro
They both were signaling hard back then that they wouldn’t do it.
I am 99% POSITIVE that they were told by The Turtle to hold out on doing anything like that. “You’ll look like a big-spending liberal” “The billionaires/Wall Street types funding your campaigns won’t like it” etc etc.
TriassicSands
@Quinerly:
Hmm. When I read your comment, I realized that somehow the “s” has disappeared off my nym. I don’t really look at that when I’m posting, but it was — until the “s” got dropped — TriassicSands.
Oh, nooooo, I’m having an identity crisis, better make those drinks really strong
ETA: I added the “s” and it worked, so I appear to somehow be double-registered. Is that a crime in Juiceland?
randy khan
@TriassicSand:
There were plenty of people who said they should do it at the time (and I agree in theory), but nobody who explained how they could get the votes in the Senate. (And it might have required breaking a filibuster there, which would have meant it was dead on arrival.)
Brachiator
@Jeffro:
I don’t understand why Trump believes that declassifying presidential papers would make them his personal property.
It would be a disaster for the country to put the Angry Orange Baby in the White House again.
gwangung
@TriassicSand:
Is Ezra making a joke?
Old School
@JPL:
Chuck did want negotiation during the lame duck session. Pretty sure the need for bipartisanship was to get Manchin/Sinema’s votes.
gene108
We’re already taking on extraordinary measures to keep things running. The June 1 deadline is when those measures are exhausted.
I assume we are going to default for period of time before a solution is reached.
McCarthy’s only guiding principle is what’s good for McCarthy.
I think many Republican politicians and damn near all Republican voters have no clue how badly the U.S.’s defaulting on our debt could hurt the economy and how badly it would ruin a world order where we are the top dog.
They only think in terms of an what outrage will win a news cycle.
Quinerly
@TriassicSands:
I make killer Sangria. You can even eat the alcohol drenched fruit. My Mojotos are also deadly. Really good rum.
I’m building 3 berms right now and redoing this ornamental grass area. We can gaze out on it when finished.
schrodingers_cat
@Matt McIrvin: Both ends of the horseshoe are going to be outraged no matter what happens and blame the Democrats.
TriassicSands
@randy khan: (And it might have required breaking a filibuster there, which would have meant it was dead on arrival.)
But if the votes had been there to end the debt ceiling issue, they would probably have also been there to end the filibuster.
DOA. Which is what I would expect. Given the unfortunate, but unsurprising negative positions of Sinema and Manchin on several issues critical to making the Senate work for the betterment of the country, I wouldn’t have expected them to support ending the debt ceiling insanity either.
It is difficult to imagine how much different and better things might be today if they had been willing to ditch the filibuster and expand the Court. Roe would still be in place and on and on.
Quinerly
@gene108:
Totally agree with you. I’m bracing myself. The Repugs want to burn it all down. They probably just wish it was June, 2024.
TriassicSands
Hey, the idea was to drown my sorrows, not end my life.
dirge
Yeah, it came up and was discussed a bit, but the only people really expecting a solution in the lame duck congress were those aware of Republican plans for the debt ceiling, but also unaware of the existence of Manchin, Sinema, and/or the filibuster, which is a pretty tiny demographic, and not one usually worth listening to.
Among reasonable people, Josh Marshall beat the drum about it for a while, considering it quite urgent, while acknowledging that it’d be almost impossible to do.
Roger Moore
@TriassicSand:
No, it wouldn’t have. I remember some discussions about ending the debt ceiling forever, and they never got very far because Manchin and Sinema said no so quickly. Anyone who wonders why the Democrats didn’t deal with this when they had the chance should just look at what was published on the issue 6 months ago. Klein could just look up the answer if he seriously wanted to know. That he doesn’t is all the indication you need of how seriously you should take him.
Mallard Filmore
@jonas: The GOP has been studying at the Muammar Gaddafi School of Diplomacy.
Negotiation:
Hoodie
@gene108: It will hurt the economy and damage US standing, but don’t overstate it. People said the same thing about withdrawing from Afghanistan and now no one gives two shits about Afghanistan. A couple of years later, Biden is leading a coalition that helped Ukraine neuter the Russian Army. We can probably skate on for quite a while after a technical default using things like consol bonds and the debt ceiling will either be raised or invalidated sooner or later.
You always have to consider what the alternative will be. There is no one in a position to take over the US world economic position. The US is not any sort of actual default position, just some assholes with no real ideas to sell want to create a technical default to scare people into accepting their bullshit.
Omnes Omnibus
@The Kropenhagen Interpretation: Ever so thankful for your help.
gene108
@Quinerly:
I don’t see any advantage Republicans gain by avoiding default. If we default they can blame President Biden for refusing to comprise and Democrats for out of control spending.
Right wing media and the MSM will run with this framing.
The 2020 election came down to a narrower margin in swing states, like PA, GA, AZ and maybe WI, then Trump’s EC win in 2016.
Scuff up Biden a bit, with a favorable Senate map, and gerrymandered Congressional districts, going into 2024, Republicans must be drooling at the prospect of total control of all three branches of government.
Nothing else really matters to them.
Roger Moore
@gene108:
The one thing they could lose by defaulting is their supporters in business turning on them. It’s by no means guaranteed to happen, but it’s something they should at least think about as a possibility.
narya
@Brachiator:
TFG hasn’t faced a real consequence in his sorry orange life. He assumed that the same would be true when he became president, and it did mostly remain true while he was in office. But this time around, he’s dealing with multiple entities that are thoroughly unimpressed with him and aim to hold him to account for his actions; he hasn’t been in this situation before, so, with what few brain cells he has, he thought he could continue with his usual pattern
ETA: in other words, “I want them; they’re mine.”
Quinerly
@TriassicSands:
Well since you are plural as you pointed out, I was counting on at least two of you.
Quinerly
@Roger Moore:
Was just going to reply with exactly this. Thanks for saving me the time. Repugs’ capitalist overlords could save us.
bbleh
@TriassicSand: @The Kropenhagen Interpretation: in fairness, pretty much anything in GOPspeak means “starve the poor, feed the rich.”
TriassicSands
I didn’t take him seriously at all. The comment sections of both the Post (particularly) and the Times are filled with Democrats saying the party should have done this or that — always ignoring the fact that Manchin and Sinema (if not others) would never go along.
But it is different to say they should have tried than to say they should have done something. Trying can put people in the spotlight (which, of course, both Sinema and Manchin like) and raise the visibility of an issue (which may be a good thing). The flip side is that failure will often be reported as weakness. As if not trying isn’t also a form of weakness.
TriassicSands
@Quinerly:
When is there only one grain of sand? On the other hand, it could be a case of multiple personalities.
Quinerly
I really have to get back to work here. Will leave this Harlan Crow piece just up at the Atlantic. That awesome 12ft ladder site will get you around the paywall. Crow is one strange dude. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/05/harlan-crow-clarence-thomas-relationship/674092/
gene108
@Roger Moore:
Small business owners are as dumb as bricks, when it comes to understanding macroeconomics.
The billionaires can buy their way into any country that’s not as nuts as we’re becoming.
The rest of the Republican voters will gladly suffer death to “own the libs”.
Quinerly
@TriassicSands:
A sand dune. Explain that.😉
Sangria a 5 Mountain Time!
AWOL
@Quinerly: No. He admitted to Ben Terris he has a sex life with Ben Terris:
“I’m not talking about my sex life with Ben Terris,” Scott reportedly said.
//
TriassicSands
Simple, it’s a family reunion.
A sand storm? A drunken family reunion.
billcinsd
@TriassicSands: I hate those m*f*c*ing s’s on a comment
TriassicSands
The very definition of a one trick pony.
Quinerly
@AWOL:
Thanks for the laugh.
Geminid
@TriassicSand: The question of a debt ceiling raise came up in last year’s lame duck session. Sen. Manchin said he would not vote for it to be attached to the Omnibus funding bill. I was hoping this was just a negotiating tactic, but it turned out he meant it.
Quinerly
@TriassicSands:
💜
Hungry Joe
@gene108: Exactly. If the economy tanks and millions are thrown out of work, the GOP and the MSM lickspittles will howl nonstop about how Biden and the Dems broke the country, and only Trump and his goons can fix it. The country will be economic rubble, but they take both Houses and Trump returns to the dump (as he called it) at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
This, I believe, is their game plan. I give it about a one-in-four chance of success, which strikes me as scary odds indeed. But since I just made those numbers up … maybe not. It helps that they’re so goddam stupid.
Matt McIrvin
@Omnes Omnibus: Anything other than the ultimatum where we will accept a default on the debt as the only alternative to a clean bill.
Betty Cracker
@TriassicSands: I often wonder if senators who call themselves Democrats but stymie the party at every turn are more trouble than they’re worth in terms of the damage they do to the party brand. I generally assume they’re worth the trouble as long as they are essential in helping us seat judges, etc., but I do think it’s a factor that should be considered.
Sinema is no longer a Dem and will probably no long be a senator soon, so that’s one we can cross off the list of problem children. Manchin will probably get defeated in 2024 too, so he won’t be a problem child for much longer either.
I hope we can eventually replace lunkheads like those two with more reliable senators who don’t seem to relish owning the libs as much as Repubs do.
billcinsd
@gene108:The 2020 election came down to a narrower margin in swing states, like PA, GA, AZ and maybe WI, then Trump’s EC win in 2016.
Not really true. GA and AZ weren’t swing states in 2016. PA was further apart in 2020 than in 2016 (~100,000 in 2020 vs. ~50,000 in 2016). Wisconsin was closer in 2020 than in 2016, by ~20,000 to ~10,000. The other main swing state in 2016 was MI, and that also was much less close in 2020
TriassicSands
@gwangung:
No, Ezra being serious.
Of course, Klein can argue that he wrote they “should have,” not “could have.” Duh! And they should have gotten rid of the filibuster.
And they should have nullified the invalid and corrupt SCOTUS majority by expanding the Court. We’re seeing the damage being done to women (and families) every day by the failure to do so. Is there a downside? Of course, as long as the GOP has any power at all and voters are willing to elect them there will be a downside to almost any action Democrats take. Because the GOP is one gigantic downside.
Baud
Scarlett Johansson should have had sex with me.
sdhays
@dirge: Manchin and Sinema definitely didn’t want to do it, but I think there are untold others who still cower at the idea of the mean commercials that will be run over their support for abolishing the debt ceiling. They fail to appreciate that the vast majority of people’s eyes glaze over when the debt ceiling comes up.
CaseyL
@Betty Cracker
We unfortunately, but irreducibly, need(ed) their warm bodies and beating hearts to keep McConnell from becoming Majority Leader. (Same goes for Feinstein, who has to stay alive and at least somewhat conscious until January 2025.)
Old School
@Baud: My sympathies that Manchin blocked that.
Omnes Omnibus
@billcinsd: WI’s Supreme Court is going to change at the end of June. There could be significant changes as a result. Then again, people who are only looking for ways that things can go wrong can always game those out.
Omnes Omnibus
@Baud: Be reasonable.
TriassicSands
@Betty Cracker:
You put your finger on both the upside and downside of having senators like Manchin and Sinema. Something that frequently appears in comment sections of the Post and Times is that both senators are really not Democrats, but DINOs. Only, if you look at their overall voting records, they don’t look anything like those of Republicans. Manchin isn’t a Republican, he’s a lousy Democrat, but one who most of the time votes with Democrats. The same goes for Sinema. It’s also critical which party the senators caucus with. Without their votes the Democrats wouldn’t hold a majority. So, on balance, it benefits Democrats.
But, and it’s a big but, they do abandon the Democrats on some very important issues. And if not outright abandonment, they weaken legislation as the price for their votes.
So, it’s a mixed bag, but apart from the importance of judges, they hold the key which party is the majority party. And if they are replaced by Republicans, the odds are overwhelmingly against the Democrats holding a Senate majority.
Redshift
@Brachiator:
My impression is that he always believed he had been elected CEO of America, and since his only experience was family owned private companies, that meant everything in the federal government belonged to him, and every employee worked for him. “My judges,” “my generals,” etc.
Considering that we know he was tearing up and flushing presidential records the whole time he was in office, it’s pretty clear he couldn’t be dissuaded from the delusion that they were all his personal property.
JustRuss
So much this.
lowtechcyclist
@Another Scott:
;-)
lowtechcyclist
@ARoomWithAMoose:
One of the virtues of invoking the 14th Amendment is that it requires no lead time. I don’t know how long it takes to mint a platinum coin, but there has to be some prep time in there. Ditto with creating a bond issue of premium bonds or consols. But with the 14th Amendment, you just do it.
Betty Cracker
@CaseyL: I understand that; just saying it’s important to bear the costs in mind because there are downsides. For example, there were briefly 60 Dems in the Senate, which allowed ACA passage in a squeaker. That was the best Dems could do at the time even with 60, but I think the widespread assumption that this fulfilled the party’s aspirations on healthcare soured dog knows how many low-info voters on the party.
Old School
Not sure if Radar is a solid gossip site or not.
TriassicSands
Longer MSM: Why can’t Democrats just be reasonable and give Republicans everything they want, so that we can do this over and over until finally the poor starve to death and the wealthy own absolutely everything.
But, but, but, if they asked, then Republicans would be mad and the MSM would no longer have access to the lies that Republicans so graciously share with them.
Roger Moore
@CaseyL:
Feinstein is a slightly different case. She could be replaced almost immediately if she were to leave the Senate through death or resignation. California has a Democratic governor, and he could appoint her replacement the same day if he wanted to. The thing where that might be a problem is on the judiciary committee specifically. It’s very important to get Biden’s judges appointed, and the Republicans would do everything they could to keep the Democrats from replacing her on the committee if she were gone.
narya
@lowtechcyclist: The problem that I can see is that they’d immediately go to the SCROTUS, who would, on the shadow docket, put a pause on paying the bills, which would be a hot mess. Alternatively, they’d take the case and rule against Biden, which is arguably an even bigger mess–I can also see them throwing it to Congress. Without knowing for sure how this trash YOLO court would decide anything, it’s too risky.
Geminid
@TriassicSands: I bet Maggie Hassan would not have wanted to take that vote to eliminate the debt ceiling. Mark Kelly, Catgerine Cortez-Masto and Raphael Warnock might not have wanted to either.
Omnes Omnibus
@narya: I would bet that the Court would vote not to blow up the economy by a 7-2 or 6-3 margin. Which is actually sad.
Old School
Tony Jay
@JoyceH:
And after which the people who actually campaigned against the disaster get the blame for not stopping it, while the cynical loons who made it happen purely for political profit get rewarded by the courtier Press for ‘winning’.
dirge
@sdhays:
True. For completeness, it should be “Manchin, Sinema, and an unknown number of cowards grateful that someone else is running interference so they don’t have to take a stand.”
It’s unknown what the latter would do without the former giving cover. One might hope they’d show a little courage once the spotlight hits them, but more likely one draws the short straw, and is pushed into Manchin’s role, while the rest continue as they were.
MattF
@Jeffro: A footnote to the Russian sanctions story— turns out Jack Smith is on the list (as John L. Smith).
Roger Moore
@Geminid:
This is something a lot of rank-and-file Democrats are worried about. Yeah, Manchin and Sinema get the attention, but there’s a serious worry there are at least a handful of other Democratic Senators who feel the same way but aren’t eager to take the blame publicly.
The worry is that even if we manage to expand our majority enough to make Manchin and Sinema the 52nd and 53rd votes for everything, that still wouldn’t be enough. Instead, another few Democratic senators would join them (and and equal number of Republicans who wanted to get unearned centrist cred) in a group of 8 or group of 10, who would still stymie everything in the name of bipartisan comity.
Geminid
@sdhays:
I often hear this about various issues, but nobody ever names names so we can see what states these Senators have to be elected in. I don’t know about your state, but Senators like Maggie Hassan and Jean Shaheen have to win in New Hampshire, not California. They might be realists, not cowards.
Anyway
To me Brexit is a good analogy here. Sane people kept pointing out the pitfalls but the break-everything set kept going.
lowtechcyclist
@billcinsd:
I think the way most people look at it is, how many additional votes in the right/wrong states for the losing party would it have taken to reverse the outcome?
In 2016, another 10,705 votes in Michigan, another 22,749 votes in Wisconsin, and another 44,285 votes in Pennsylvania, for a total of 77,739 additional votes, would have gained Hillary the win.
In 2020, another 10,458 votes in Arizona, another 20,683 votes in Wisconsin, and another 11,780 votes in Georgia, for a total of 42,921 additional votes, would have had the end result* of flipping the election to TFG.
Yes, it’s a different (though overlapping) set of swing states, but the 2020 election came down to a smaller number of votes in swing states than 2016 did.
*After a stop in the House of Representatives, that is, but the outcome there would have been foreordained since each state delegation gets one vote: Wyoming cancels out California, as silly as that may seem.
Tony Jay
@rikyrah:
Oh, because that’s easy. All of that spending was necessary, patriotic and strengthens the nation, so it’s a Republican priority to pay for it. Democrat spending is always unnecessary, unpatriotic and weakens the nation, so can only be paid for by cuts to Democrat priorities.
Simple, no? So simple even a stenographer can remember it.
Eyeroller
@sdhays: From what I can tell from polling, most people don’t understand the debt ceiling at all and believe it is something to prevent excessive future spending.
They also don’t understand that the government doesn’t actually have to pay off its debts whereas we do, because, as Krugman recently put it, you will get old and die and the government won’t (at least over a very, very long time interval).
Geminid
@Roger Moore: What if they stymied stuff because they want to get reelected, or see their peers in purple states be reelected. Why do you think DC Statehood never made it to a Senate vote? Schumer knew it wouldn’t pass, and he did not want to expose Kelly, Hassan, Cortez-Masto and Warnock to trouble.
And you know what? House leadership and the rank and file didn’t raise a fuss, either. They know those Senate seats are not guaranteed.
Jeffro
@Old School: Wow that is surprising! It’s DE tradition (as it is in many other states) to keep running until you don’t know whether you’re in the First State or the Last State. =)
Carney will probably run for it and win.
Matt McIrvin
@Eyeroller: Back during the 2011 crisis people constantly drew analogies between the debt ceiling and a credit limit.
Just calling it “the debt ceiling” is deceptive because it makes it sound like a credit limit, and makes it politically impossible to get rid off. But that’s not what it is. Maybe part of the problem is that what it is makes no sense, and it’s impossible to believe that that is actually what it is because that would make no sense.
rikyrah
@Roger Moore:
Then they would have to stand up. Stop cowering in the shadows.
TriassicSands
@Geminid:
I wouldn’t bet on most senators’ votes as controversial issues. They have, for better or worse, lots of considerations apart from what is the best vote for the American people.
A cardiologist once told me that although doctors routinely claim that their patients are what is most important, that is rarely the case.
A similar situation exists for most elected officials who don’t live in districts or states where their re-election is guaranteed. Re-election and donors (who are tied to re-election) will more likely top the list of priorities.
What is surprising is when elected officials vote in a way that is inconsistent with that. For a few Republican senators and representatives, Trump’s crimes actually outweighed party loyalty and their own future prospects. Some paid the ultimate political price for integrity
Manchin and Sinema probably offered cover on some issues for senators who wanted to avoid having to vote on some controversial issues.
Old School
@TriassicSands:
Did the cardiologist opine on what is in the top spot?
Ocotillo
@Eyeroller:
Yeah, I recently was asked my a normie who doesn’t follow this as much as us Juicers if we hadn’t already defaulted in the past, she recalled Fed employees not getting paid, confusing a default with a government shutdown.
Matt McIrvin
@Old School: I’m guessing that for most doctors, staying out of prison and not getting murdered is probably actually more important than serving their patients (judging from the abortion situation).
Roger Moore
@Old School:
I assume that what’s #1 in their mind is protecting themselves. We don’t want doing what’s right for the patient and doing what’s best for the doctor to be in conflict, but sometimes they are. When we threaten doctors with prison for following their medical consciences, whether it’s performing abortions or prescribing opiates, most of them protect themselves rather than risking it.
Ocotillo
@Jeffro: Carper deserves credit for this. More senators should retire while they still have some health and are not at risk of getting sick and throwing sand in the gears of progress because the senate is so closely divided. and you know who I am referring to.
Omnes Omnibus
@Matt McIrvin: Can’t do anything for anyone if you lose your license. Or freedom. Or life.
bbleh
@Geminid: Medicine administered. Sold out.
Geminid
@TriassicSands: Well, you say that Manchin and Sinema probably gave them cover, so you out to be able who was probably given cover.
Personally, I think Chuck Schimer and the rest of the caucus are the ones who gave them cover, and for pragmatic reasons. Schumer could have called a vote, or the others could have demanded one publically. They didn’t, and I think that was because they understand how tough it is to win in purple states.
Roberto el oso
@MattF: This is so sad. I mean the existence of the list itself. It’s like being banned from ever eating at one of Lauren Boebert’s restaurants.
Jeffro
@Ocotillo: oh totally
Mrs. Fro thinks that it’ll be Lisa Blunt-Rochester instead of Carney who runs. It’s been a while since the DE Dems had a good primary fight so I guess we’ll see. =)
Jeffro
@MattF: makes sense that the leader of a world power would sanction…another country’s special prosecutor?
I love that the whole axis of bad guys is *this * obvious, though.
bbleh
@Geminid: true. Sadly for Manchin, though, I fear the Dem-from-red-state shield is fizzling out. Justice, the Rep Gov who has filed for the Senate race, is considered sensible and Not A Crazy. I expect the race is his to lose, barring some unforeseen event (like he has a coronary and collapses).
Amusingly, there has been discussion for some time about Manchin not running and instead running for Gov, which he used to be. It would be a hoot if they just swapped jobs…
Roger Moore
@Jeffro:
Being the special prosecutor going after Trump isn’t the only reason the Russians might hate Jack Smith. He also worked for the ICC, which might be reason enough for Russia to hate him.
bbleh
@MattF: @Jeffro: “You see, Donald, what good friend I am, da? Now, please exiting NATO. Spasibo.”
Doc Sardonic
@Geminid: You can be a realist and a craven coward at the same time. The proof of one’s character is in taking the vote even when the realist inside is screaming it might or will cost me my cushy job and title.
Old School
@Matt McIrvin: @Roger Moore:
Sure, potentially. However, I’m going to assume a cardiologist isn’t overly concerned about going to prison or being murdered.
Brachiator
@narya:
It is more than an assumption. It is a weird and childish assertion of will. Trump doesn’t see the presidency as an important office with rules and traditions. It is a toy, a plaything. A perch from which he can be tough and powerful.
Yep. That’s it. It is all about his infantile wants.
Roger Moore
@Doc Sardonic:
The problem is that there’s a real argument in favor of compromising to keep your job. Think about how much worse off the country would be with a solid Republican majority in the Senate. Protecting
that[correction: the Democratic] majority might be worth the cost of watering down your ambitions.Of course you need to have enough principles to decide when that argument does and doesn’t hold. The more you whittle down your ambitions in the name of keeping your job, the less value you provide by keeping that job. There needs to be some goal that’s important enough to risk your job to achieve, or you’re just using the theoretical value of you being in your job to justify careerism.
Jeffro
DE (speaking of) did this a couple of times.
Until what’s-her-name, the “I’m not a witch” lady, beat Mike Castle in the GOP primary. Then there was no sane R to switch jobs with, LOL
Omnes Omnibus
@Doc Sardonic: OTOH, politicians make compromises all the time. Every vote can’t be a go big or go home vote. Everyone has to have lines in the sand, but,barring those, most votes are a compromise for most people. A little too far or not far enough.
Jeffro
@bbleh: “exit NATO” IF trumpov wins in 2024. Which he won’t.
I like it because it makes it hard for the rest of the GOP, both the Russia-compromised and the not-Russia-compromised, to deny that trumpov is Russia-compromised.
Doc Sardonic
@Roger Moore: This true. My reference is to taking a consequential vote on an issue, knowing it may cost you. There are a bunch of Democratic former House members that voted for the ACA, even though their inner realist was most certainly screaming NO.
Jeffro
OT but at some point I’d like to hear some speculation on my earlier note about when trump’s GOP rival candidates will openly begin adding “I promise to pardon trump!” to their campaign pitches.
(Their excuses for doing so are going to be LIT! “I alone can save trump from the liberal prosecutors and woke hordes howling for trump’s er um scalp!” LOL)
I’m gonna say Sept 20th, 2023. ;)
RevRick
@jonas: What the GOP position effectively is is that no Democrat will ever be allowed to govern; that all Democratic Presidents are illegitimate.
Old School
lowtechcyclist
@Roger Moore:
One goal that would make sense from that perspective is statehood for DC and PR. Against the risk of losing seats elsewhere, success guarantees two new Dem Senators from DC, and two new Senators from PR who are much more likely to be aligned with Dems than R’s on most issues.
If Gallego replaces Sinema in the Senate and the Dems hold all other seats besides possibly Manchin’s, the purple-state Dem Senators will really need to step up and get that done.
Roberto el oso
@Old School: “This really was a take-it-or-leave-it situation,” squealed one source. “Let’s just say Melania was in no mood to negotiate with Donald — and he knew full well there was no chance he was returning to the Oval Office without her.”
I really don’t see how Trump still being married to Melania would make any difference whatsoever in his running.
Geminid
@lowtechcyclist: Actually, Wyoming’s lone Representative might not have voted for Trump.
Brachiator
@Eyeroller:
This is true of the public, and also true of many members of Congress.
There are some reporters and radio personalities discussing the issue who get it, but have a hard time convincing the average person.
True. Too many people and pundits keep falling back on the example of credit cards and household budgets. This doesn’t apply to nations, but is easier to understand.
WaterGirl
@Brachiator:
I had hoped that Joe would stand firm, too. But sadly 3/4 of our populace pays no real attention and just believes the crap that the mainstream media says. So they are scared that Biden is too old. They believe the both sides bullshit.
I was initially disappointed but as it becomes more clear that the Rs are holding out for things that are impossible – Joe is not going to un-do his major legislation that he just passed – so the Rs aren’t negotiating in good faith.
So Biden can afford to come off of his hard line of “we won’t negotiate” because there isn’t going to be a negotiation. The Rs will never be satisfied with anything Joe offers.
I think Biden has a plan with contingencies in place, and we’re rolling through the steps and as he ticks off box after box he moves to step P of his alphabet-sized plan.
trollhattan
@Roberto el oso: Stormy Trump, goes on the trail with him? Plenty of time to make that happen.
trollhattan
@Eyeroller: They [you know, “them”] also conflate debt and deficit.
Geminid
@Doc Sardonic: It would not just cost them their jobs. It would cost the Democrats their Senate majority.
But I think you should name names if you want to call people craven cowards. Is Jon Tester a craven coward? Maggie Hassan? Angus King? Mark Kelly? Catherine Cortez-Masto?
WaterGirl
@TriassicSands: Not a problem!
Brachiator
@Jeffro:
Has Trump been convicted of any offense to which a pardon applies?
Could a president pardon Trump for any and all future crimes that he might otherwise be prosecuted?
Roger Moore
@Roberto el oso:
There are few enough Republicans so attached to Melania that his continuing to be married to her would have less effect on the election than the weather on election day. That said, the actual divorce proceedings might be nasty enough and reveal enough information he wants to keep secret that the process of ending the marriage might make a substantial difference.
Doc Sardonic
@Geminid: If you want to go there Absolutely.
bbleh
@WaterGirl: also, he knows full well — and said publicly in Japan — that, fairly or not (usually not) the public blames the President if something bad (or good) happens. Combine that with probably >95% of the public not understanding the debt limit situation (or the debt itself, or the budget for that matter) at all fully, and he’s got a problem if things go sideways. And unfortunately, things will go at least a little bit sideways even if he breaks the glass and goes with one of the workarounds.
The flip side is that a lot of small-business owners and donors, whose calls most Republicans tend to take, at least understand that things could go significantly badly for them if things go sideways, so there’s at least some countervailing pressure on the Republicans not to drive things into a ditch.
The fly in the ointment that I see is, there is a small-but-energetic group of Crazies who don’t care either way, and McQarthy is SO weak that he may not be able to stand up to them.
Nancy Smash would have put those jokers in a cage and hung it over a lake until they were begging for mercy. Jeezus H W Christ where are the real leaders when you need ’em?
Geminid
@Doc Sardonic: Bull. Shit.
Roger Moore
@Brachiator:
I think a pardon can only cover crimes that have already been committed. There doesn’t necessarily have to be a prosecution started already, and the specific crimes don’t have to be enumerated. For example, Carter pardoned Vietnam-era draft dodgers with a very broad pardon. And, of course, the president can only pardon someone for federal crimes, so a presidential pardon couldn’t save Trump from NY or GA state crimes.
Jeffro
@Brachiator: he’s clearly heading towards being charged with obstruction by the feds (and possibly espionage as well) so it’s a good question.
(the state-level charges, no, he can’t be pardoned of those – at least not by a future president. A Georgia governor, perhaps? But I don’t expect his voters to understand the difference.)
Brachiator
@WaterGirl:
I certainly hope that Biden has a plan. I worry a bit when I hear noise from the White House that Biden is trying to negotiate with Republicans.
Maybe he feels that he should give the Republicans something. The GOP have shown time and again that they cannot be trusted.
We shall see what happens.
Doc Sardonic
@Geminid: Give me the last potential Senate career ending vote they have taken.I’ll answer it for you….they haven’t. Besides Angus King isn’t even a Democrat, he’s an Independent.
Jeffro
Breaking: E. Jean Carrol’s gonna sue trumpov for MORE money! LOL
keep talking you orange moron!
Roger Moore
@Jeffro:
Which might be a good reason not to promise a pardon. His supporters will see a promised of a pardon as a promise to get him out of prison. Anything less will be a betrayal. Since freeing him from state charges isn’t within the President’s power, it would probably be best not to make the promise in the first place.
Geminid
@Brachiator: It’s not noise. President Biden is negotiating with the Republicans. He and Kevin McCarthy are supposed to be meeting right now. They’ve been negotiating for the past ten days, mostly at the staff level.
dnfree
Different topic, but notable to the blog:
This is from the Washington Post Daily 202 report. Cleaning up history is what authoritarian governments do.
—————–
Jeffro
@Roger Moore: wait…you’re saying that a) GOP politicians care about following through on their promises once they’re past the primaries, and/or that b) GOP voters can pay attention long enough to make them follow through on their promises??
How many examples do I have to cite here?
japa21
@bbleh:
Mrs Japa and I were watching the news recently and they were talking about the debt ceiling and McCarthy’s role. Mrs. Japa said she knows just the right song for McCarthy and those crazies of which you speak.
Brachiator
@Jeffro:
I can see the obstruction charges. I can’t see Trump ever being charged for espionage.
japa21
@dnfree:
Trying to decide if that follows the Texas route or the Florida one.
Doc Sardonic
@Doc Sardonic:
Ran out of edit time. On further thought, every vote Tester takes could be viewed as a career ender. That he has defied the odds this long borders on the miraculous.
Geminid
@Doc Sardonic: I know Angus King is an independent. Not sure what difference that makes; he caucuses with the Democrats.
But you said “absolutely,” the Senators I named were craven cowards. You can stick to that if you want, but I don’t have to name some vote where they put their careers on the line. So go ahead and keep calling Jon Tester, Mark Kelly, Catherine Cortez-Masto and Maggie Hassan “craven cowards,” tough guy. And I’ll keep calling bullshit..
Cameron
@Old School: Parnas? Hardly knew the guy. I think he brought me pudding once or twice.
Brachiator
@dnfree:
DeSantis no doubt would applaud this kind of thing.
Omnes Omnibus
@Brachiator: Negotiating is a pretty broad term. One shouldn’t assume that it means giving things up. The White House should absolutely keep a conversation going even if it’s just warning of the consequences of a default.
Roger Moore
@Jeffro:
I think Trump voters will know and remember that someone promised to pardon Trump but he continued to languish in prison. They’re cultists; they’re going to notice disloyalty to the cult leader.
Doc Sardonic
@Geminid: Well, looks like we just disagree.
Quinerly
@Jeffro:
Boom!
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/22/e-jean-carroll-seeks-very-substantial-damages-from-trump-over-cnn-town-hall-remarks.html
Geminid
@Doc Sardonic: We do. One possible reason is that I’ve lived in a red state that turned purple. Because of that, I have a lot of appreciation for Senators like Kelly, Hassan and Cortez-Masto.
You’re willing to cut Tester slack because he represents a red state, but you won’t cut any at all for the purple state Senators. Why is that? Do you have the privilege of living in a blue state? Who are your courageous Senators?
Roger Moore
@bbleh:
Sure. While McCarthy is clearly a weak man, his weakness as Speaker goes way beyond that. The Freedumb Caucus knew previous Republican Speakers had cut deals with the Democrats when that was easier than dealing with them, and they didn’t want that to happen again. They made weakening the Speaker’s position to the point he couldn’t stand up to them at all a condition of voting for him.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: So the people elected to the court in April don’t get seated until June? That makes sense.
Geminid
@Roger Moore: The Freedom Caucus forced McCarthy and his backers to accept a rule making it easier to bring a vote to vacate the Speaker’s chair. I’m hoping that blows up in their faces.
Doc Sardonic
@Geminid: No, I live in a state that defies and stretches reality on a daily basis, and went from blue, to purple, to deep dark crimson red. I live in Florida.
zhena gogolia
@Quinerly: Good for her.
UncleEbeneezer
BREAKING: special counsel Jack Smith SUBPOENAED the trump org for documents related to real estate deals in CHINA, FRANCE, TURKEY, SAUDI ARABIA, KUWAIT, UAE, and OMAN since he took office.
BREAKING: E Jean Carroll WILL SEEK DAMAGES for Donald’s CNN town hall comments.
rikyrah
The books that have been banned in one Florida school 🤬🤬🤬
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTREaJo8c/?t=1
Roger Moore
@Geminid:
I think McCarthy’s weakness as Speaker comes at the intersection of the ease with which the chair can be vacated and his own personal weakness as a human being. The Freedumb Caucus correctly calculated that he would be too protective of his status as Speaker to risk their wrath. If he really wanted to, McCarthy could probably cut a deal with the Democrats where they promise not to give him the votes he needs to survive as Speaker in exchange for occasionally allowing votes the Freedumb Caucus doesn’t like. But he’s too weak personally to be willing to accept that kind of deal.
Quinerly
@UncleEbeneezer:
Maybe Melania really will renegotiate that prenup.
cain
@Roger Moore:
It won’t work – the rest of the GOP caucus will kick his ass for providing cover to Democrats. The thing is, there is no moderates in the GOP.
Quinerly
So fucking sick.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/may/22/ron-desantis-police-relocation-violent-records
karen marie
@Another Scott: The problem is that any compromise encourages the bomb throwers.
If the GOP wants to destroy the economy, I say let them have at it.
Most people’s lives will only be slightly worse off than they already are. It’s the fucking wealthy who will take a bath, and I say let them, the dirty fucks.
JPL
@Geminid: It could blow up in all our faces. If the talks don’t work out, it might be time to negotiate with Schumer and Mitch. Kevin says that he has a bill to avoid default already, maybe it’s time for the Senate to have one.
JPL
@Quinerly: He is one scary ass dude and his wife is salivating at the chance to redecorate the White House.
Roger Moore
@Quinerly:
Plenty of us said the police who threatened to resign over vaccine mandates would be doing us all a favor by quitting. Ron DeSantis is proving us right.
cain
@Roger Moore: The thing is – as the GOP keeps going more and more right – what is the centrist position at that point? Abortion, LBGT+, Racism, Women’s health in general – you can’t take a centralist view because in the end – the centralist view is a straight white male view.
Jackie
@Jeffro: A few weeks ago there was an article about potential pardoning TFG. The Georgia gov doesn’t have pardon power. It would be up to a special committee, and according to the author, based on the committee’s makeup it wouldn’t happen.
Ah, here’s a source:
https://pardonandparole.uslegal.com/state-pardon-and-parole-laws/georgia/?amp
Geminid
@Doc Sardonic: Well, Florida’s a tough one, and you have my sympathy. But has it turned a deep, crimson red? I know the legislature is, but that’s because of gerrymandering. Biden lost Florida by 5 points in 2020; I’m not going to count Florida as deep red until I see how he does next year.
Jackie
@Jeffro: 👍🏻
Geminid
@JPL: I expect Schumer and McConnell have been talking. But I think McConnell will wait to see what finally omes out of the House before he whips 9 Republican Senate votes for a debt ceiling bill. This whole thing is kind of like a legislative Rubic’s Cube.
Roger Moore
@cain:
I did say the centralist cred would be unearned. It’s the same game of pulling the football away at the last minute we’ve seen so many times. The Republicans promise to negotiate, they make some vaguely reasonable suggestions, and then try to add poison pills to whatever the latest Democratic suggestion is.
If it ever comes to a vote, the Republicans can always refuse to vote for it, and the poison pills they’ve added would hopefully keep enough liberal Democrats from voting for it to kill it completely. Even if they don’t, they’ll still weaken it compared to what the Democrats could have passed on their own without any Republican input. It’s basically the same old ploy Susan Collins has perfected.
JPL
@Geminid: Nothing good is coming out of the house. As Kevin said today, he passed a bill.
Jackie
Bengazi redux.
“Rep. James Comer (R-KY) on Monday inadvertently implied that House Republicans’ high-profile investigation into President Joe Biden’s family members and their finances is actually about helping Donald Trump win the presidency in 2024,” the HuffPost reports.”
Roger Moore
@Jackie:
It’s nice to get them on record admitting it, but anyone who’s not smart enough to figure that out without being told is beyond redemption. Or a member of the MSM. Or, more likely, both.
Gvg
@The Moar You Know: no actually it’s the house I think.Schumer is senate.
I think McConnel being I’ll even though it’s not being said so much is a factor too.
McCartney doesn’t know what to do. He has no plan IMO. That is part of why no negotiations are going anywhere. The rest of it is well the GOP is full of dumb people. They don’t mostly know they are plying with high explosives. All they know is they want to “win” all of the time. And they all have different ideas of winning plus if the democrats don’t howl and cry enough, they obviously aren’t winning enough.
TriassicSands
@Old School:
Various things. Pay always. Hours. Retirement. Avoiding malpractice lawsuits. Outside interests and hobbies. Etc.
JPL
@Jackie: Jordan and Comer have been saying the quiet out loud now for awhile. There’s not much of a kick back, cuz of Hunter did something legal.
Quinerly
@JPL:
Saw your nym and smiled. You now know why.
I read a profile of the wife over the weekend. I think Politico. Did you happen to see it? She has that Kari Lake vibe…confirmed by her past experience on local news.
Doc Sardonic
@Geminid: I think Florida, and this pains me to say is likely lost for the foreseeable future. You have to look at what Pudding Boy accomplished with his reelection. He flipped normally blue areas by wide margins. Most of this is due to low turnout on our side, but that had a significant amount to do with Charlie Crist. Unfortunately, that cost us a really good House member, who would have been a very good Senator had she won. That win would have been significant, but it was a long shot.
2024 is going to be a crapshoot. I have no inkling which way it is going to go. My grandad used have a saying, ‘only fools and Yankees try predict Florida weather, cause it’ll change in a blink’, think that is going to apply for awhile for elections. The vibe is just for lack better term weird and not in Ms Cracker’s let’s keep Florida weird way.
Old School
@TriassicSands: Thanks.
JPL
@Quinerly: omg She is as sick as him, and has aspired to be first lady. I loved Jackie but never aspired to be her. They are both sickos. Her fame might because she’s following Eva, not Jackie
Ksmiami
14th amendment and special bonds. There’s nothing for Biden to negotiate over since the House wants to unravel his signature legislation. Good bye, you get nothing GOP.
TriassicSands
Did I write something that made you think I don’t agree with that?
Both Sinema and Manchin seem to thrive on the attention they get for disrupting Democrats’ plans. Other senators appreciate not having to publicly come down on one side or another of controversial issues and, obviously, that would be most likely in the case of Democrats with tough races in less than blue states where voters are divided. Also, if every senator were forced to take a stand on every issue, some would be pushed into the awkward position of opposing the majority of their party, thus making the party look even weaker. Life is a lot simpler for candidates who come from safe districts or states.
Quinerly
@JPL:
Nailed it!
TriassicSands
@Old School:
You’re welcome.
Dan B
@rikyrah: Quite the shocker. Looks like they took half the books in that school library.
bbleh
@Roger Moore: concur (minus “not” in line 5, probably typo), which is why I’m nervous about the negotiations. He is not empowered.
@karen marie: alas no. Were it only the plutocrats who would take the plunge, I might even be rooting for the Crazies. But things have never been thus, not in the financial panics of 100+ years ago, not in the Depression, not even in recent recessions. They may take a bath financially, but they’re hardly reduced to anything less than very comfortable, and they’re the first to recover, while many who are not wealthy truly suffer.
Meanwhile, anybody seen any tweets or anything about the talks? Joe did not look happy in the one picture I saw …
TriassicSands
I really like Ms. Carroll’s unwillingness to let Trump get away with continuing to spew his bile. I doubt if anything but death will ever shut Trump up, but forcing him to pay for his mouth is sweet justice.
Omnes Omnibus
@TriassicSands:
She’s a modern day Fury.
TriassicSands
Earlier, I wrote that I think the Republican “moderates” limit their moderation to speech in order to get elected, but actually prefer the extreme outcomes of the more obvious lunatics. That, as you say, leaves no real moderates in the GOP.
I guess we should thank them for their “lip service.”
TriassicSands
@Omnes Omnibus:
And a fine example for other women who may be reluctant to go public and risk the push-back and humiliation that those who speak out so often face.
Fury on, E. Carol! May you one day own Mar-a-Lago. (Then you could turn it into a center for abused women. Or just torch the place. Except for all the carbon that would put in the atmosphere. Sigh.)
Omnes Omnibus
@TriassicSands:
Sow its grounds with salt?
karen marie
@bbleh: Where’s a fucking guillotine when you need one?
Roger Moore
@Omnes Omnibus:
I think rising sea level will do that for us.
TriassicSands
@Omnes Omnibus:
I could get behind that, but to do the job adequately it might cause a worldwide salt shortage. On the other hand, rising sea level may do the job “naturally.”
Finally, some good news about climate change. (In a perverse sort of way.)
ETA: I see Roger Moore got there first.
bbleh
@karen marie: at least we could drive some tumbrels around, and stop outside certain-houses-that-everybody-knows-who-owns, and visibly put names on lists. Oh, and open-carry, definitely.
Problem with guillotines is, we just don’t have public squares anymore. Everything’s all suburbs and arterial roads. I suppose we could televise it or Tik-Tok or something, but it really isn’t the same…
brantl
@Brachiator: It was done with Nixon. Nixon hadn’t been charged, when Gerry GodDamn Ford pardoned him.
frosty
@Quinerly: We’ll be right over… gotta hitch up the trailer first!
Chris T.
@bbleh: I think we have to let things break for a couple of weeks (i.e., for people to not get paid their social security checks among other things) so that the low-information types realize what’s going on. Then Biden will use a workaround as a stopgap and say “see, this is what I am dealing with”…
(probably this is a dead thread but hey)
Chris T.
@bbleh:
Note that this could happen a week or two into June, after the government suspends payments.
RaflW
@bbleh: One also needs to know that these ghouls of finance have contra positions that let them win lots of money on the downside, too.
Our elections aren’t rigged. But our economy is.