A jubilee! The 100th russian Kh-101 missile was destroyed by the 138th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade.
The brigade shot down four such missiles and 15 kamikaze drones launched by russian terrorists at Dnipro last night.🎥 @StratCom_AFU pic.twitter.com/OPEmueZd3z
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 22, 2023
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Every week we add value for Ukraine from the NATO Summit in Vilnius – address by the President of Ukraine
22 May 2023 – 18:08
I wish you health, dear Ukrainians!
We have already started preparing for this and the coming weeks. We expect new meetings and negotiations, so far to a greater extent – visits to us, to our state. There will be more weapons for our warriors.
Every week we add value for Ukraine from the NATO Summit in Vilnius. We are doing everything to make sure that the decision at the summit is the one that will work for us. We’ll see, but still we’re working on it.
By the way, today there is an important declaration from the NATO Parliamentary Assembly. Things are called what they are: a clear recognition of Russia’s crimes against our country as genocide, a clear condemnation of ruscist ideology. This is the right basis for other international organizations as well.
We are preparing for several interim security measures in our neighboring countries, those that support us the most. We will also make new appeals to ensure that the world understands Ukraine and to strengthen our ties with partners.
And we will continue our intensive foreign policy, various non-standard formats, maximizing the world’s useful attention to Ukraine and our defense. More and more results for Ukraine – air defense, artillery, armored vehicles, shells, training – all of this is a must.
Today I want to thank all our warriors who are defending the sky. From last night to this morning, they have shot down 25 Shaheds. 25 out of 25. An excellent result. And each such downing means saved lives, saved infrastructure. Thank you!
They also managed to shoot down some of the terrorists’ missiles, but unfortunately not all of them. Unfortunately, there were hits. Dnipro and Kharkiv, Odesa and Lviv, Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia – all our cities and communities need to receive a full-fledged air shield. We are working very hard on this together with our partners.
Today, it is worth celebrating the units of the Khortytsia operational and strategic group of troops, which are the most resilient and effective. The 3rd and 5th separate assault brigades, the 80th separate airborne assault brigade, the 93rd separate mechanized brigade “Kholodny Yar”, the 214th separate special forces battalion… Thank you, warriors! This is the Bakhmut direction, this is the extraordinary strength of our people.
Glory to all our warriors who are destroying the enemy!
Glory to all who protect our cities from terrorist attacks!
Glory to all those who make our victory closer every day!
Thank you to everyone in the world who supports us! Thank you!
Glory to Ukraine!
Belgorod, Russia!
Small insider teaser: an undisclosed group of liberators is preparing to assist in the establishment of emerging and sovereign republics within the former territory of russia. pic.twitter.com/7K2Gd7k7iJ
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) May 22, 2023
The Russian Legion that has been fighting in Ukraine on behalf of Ukraine appears to have decided to cross the border back into Russia and liberate Russia from Russia.
In particular, the fighters published a video against the background of road signs of the settlements of Lyubimovka, Bezlyudovka, Churovychy in Russia
— Ukrainska Pravda in English (@pravda_eng) May 22, 2023
Here are more details from Ukrainska Pravda:
The Russian Volunteer Corps, whose fighters claim to be fighting on the side of Ukraine, said it was performing combat missions on the territory of the Russian Federation, and the Freedom of Russia Legion called on residents of Russian border regions to stay at home and “not resist”.
Source: Freedom of Russia Legion; Russian Volunteer Corps; Russian local Telegram channels
Details: On the morning of 22 May, fighters of the Russian Volunteer Corps reported that they were in Russia.
In particular, the fighters published a video on the background of road signs in the proximity of the settlements of Lyubimovka (Bryansk Oblast), Bezlyudovka (Belgorod Oblast) and Churovichi (Bryansk Oblast).
Meanwhile, the Freedom of Russia Legion, fighting on the side of Ukraine, recorded a video message calling on Russians to fight for a Russia free of Putin.
Then the legion published an appeal to the inhabitants of the border Russian oblasts: “Stay at home, do not resist, and do not be afraid; we are not your enemies. Unlike Putin’s zombies, we do not harm civilians and do not use them for our own purposes”.
They also promised to provide the details later.
Update: Later, the Legion reported that Kozinka, a settlement in Belgorod Oblast in Russia, had been liberated. The Freedom of Russia legion and the Russian volunteer corps are reported to be “advancing”.
Quote: “The Freedom of Russia legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps have liberated the settlement of Kozinka in Belgorod Oblast. Their units have entered the settlement of Graivoron.”
Details: Vyacheslav Gladkov, the governor of Belgorod Oblast, claimed that a “reconnaissance and sabotage group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine” has entered the territory of the Graivoron district.
He added that the Armed Forces of Russia, in cooperation with Russia’s Border Guard Service, the National Guard and the FSB, “are taking the necessary measures to neutralise the enemy”.
More at the link!
There are two distinct groups here. The Freedom of Russia Legion, aka the Russian Legion, are a group of Russians who have been fighting in Ukraine on behalf of Ukraine similar to the Georgian Legion. The Russian Volunteer Corps are somewhere between a militia and a partisan underground. Their leader is an anti-Putin white supremacist and Russian nationalist and their members join up for a variety of reasons. So two different groups here doing overlapping things.
The Financial Times has more details as well:
A group of anti-Kremlin fighters stormed Russia’s Belgorod region bordering Ukraine on Monday, moving along a main road in armoured vehicles as Russian forces rushed to respond.
The sabotage group, made up of Russians who have aligned themselves with Ukraine’s military, claimed to be “liberating” Russian territory. The Kremlin promised to “destroy” the group, and videos shared by Belgorod residents showed attack helicopters flying over houses in the area.
While the anti-Kremlin Russian groups have previously mounted operations within Russia, this appears to be the first in which the goal is to occupy territory. A Ukrainian military intelligence official confirmed his government’s knowledge of the operation but stopped short of claiming direct involvement.
The fighters in the videos appear to be from two Ukraine-based groups who oppose the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine: the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Free Russia Legion. Both have claimed responsibility for Monday’s attack inside their native country.
The Legion posted on its channel on the Telegram messaging app on Friday that it had “completely liberated” a tiny border settlement called Kozinka just inside Russia, and was moving inwards towards Graivoron, a settlement 60km from the regional centre. “Russia will be free!” it declared.
“We are Russians just like you. We are people just like you. We want our children to grow up in peace and be free people, so that they can travel, study and just be happy in a free country,” a fighter of the Free Russian Legion said in a video message.
A second video published by the group on a closed Telegram channel purported to show the body of a slain Russian border guard lying amid a mess of papers and Russian passports in an office, with a portrait of President Vladimir Putin hanging on the wall. The authenticity of the video could not be independently confirmed.
While Ukraine stopped short of claiming involvement in the attack, Andriy Yusov, a spokesperson for the country’s military intelligence department, told Ukrainian state media that Kyiv was aware of an operation being carried out by Russian citizens in order to create a “security zone” to protect Ukrainians near the border and to occupy territory there.
The Russian Volunteer Corps is headed by Russian far-right extremist and former mixed martial arts fighter Denis Nikitin and is composed of other Russians opposed to the Putin regime.
The Free Russia Legion claims also to be composed of Russian citizens, including Russian soldiers who defected to the Ukrainian side, and formed the unit with the help of Ukraine’s state security service. Its goal, the unit has said, is to “protect Ukrainians from real fascists”.
Much more at the link!
Take a closer look – the footage allwgedky shows Ukrainian armor attacking the Gaivoron border control point in Russia.
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 22, 2023
Whether it was the Freedom of Russia Legion or the Russian Volunteer Corps or Russia’s own air defense mistargeting again, someone brought down another Russian chopper.
Strange things are happening in Grayvoron. Russian Legion liberates Russia. pic.twitter.com/k1kZd8rK31
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 22, 2023
Same time as the unexplained incident in Belgorod is taking place, Ukrainian GUR head Kyrylo Budanov published an appeal, in Russian, to all Russian servicemen to surrender via the "I want to live" project to save their lives from the "upcoming meatgrinder". "It will get worse",… pic.twitter.com/2Go048RQzv
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) May 22, 2023
Full text:
Same time as the unexplained incident in Belgorod is taking place, Ukrainian GUR head Kyrylo Budanov published an appeal, in Russian, to all Russian servicemen to surrender via the “I want to live” project to save their lives from the “upcoming meatgrinder”. “It will get worse”, says Budanov.
Really interesting messaging by the RDK, too – they're not "attacking" or "invading" anything, they are liberating occupied Russian territories from Kremlin. This puts a different spin to the story.
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) May 22, 2023
Full text of the first tweet:
While the situation is still developing, the incursion into the Belgorod territory today reminds me of the raids a few months back, but with several major differences.
The attack is much more brazen, a larger number of combat vehicles are being used this time, with much heavier artillery and mortar support. It is also being conducted in broad daylight, and drone footage is immediately being published online, to reach the maximum psychological effect.
In the previous incident, we began finding out details when forces were already withdrawn, and the attack began early in the morning when it was still dark.
What is also interesting is that both “Russian Volunteer Corps” and “Free Russia Legion” have left their marks today, they could potentially be operating in two separate areas (Legion in Dronivka, RDK in Grayvoron).
If we consider this incident a part, perhaps the first one, of the counter-offensive, then it's a symbolic one: Russians liberating Russian territory from Kremlin.
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) May 22, 2023
Above was my best attempt at translating what he actually said directly.
It can be a bit hard to follow though, so here's a non-literal translation that's hopefully a bit easier to understand. pic.twitter.com/LQSznMwQga
— Dmitry Grozoubinski (@DmitryOpines) May 22, 2023
Magyar says to prepare popcorn🍿:
"Get popcorn ready for the evening.
A lot.
The movie will be great."(it's not an old post, he just probably made a mistake saying 20.05) pic.twitter.com/kGuvsEiEoC
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) May 22, 2023
Together with the video, a photo was shared showing Russian military IDs against the backdrop of a sign reading "RF FSB … BORDER POINT FOR BELGOROD AND VORONEZH OBLASTS" … "BORDER CHECKPOINT GRAYVORON".
This could indicate that the BTR was captured exactly at the checkpoint… pic.twitter.com/39K8lqwhSp
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) May 22, 2023
Here’s the full text of the first tweet:
New video emerged apparently showing two Russian Volunteer Corps fighters driving what they claim to be an FSB BTR-82A. It appears as if they don’t have much experience driving the vehicle as they thank a certain “Shayba” for coming through to them and, possibly, helping them evacuate the vehicle.
It is therefore reasonable to assume they are taking it back to where they came from. Regardless, having two soldiers from a reportedly small (80 people) unit freely leaving the combat area could be showing things were going quite well for them.
It is currently 9PM in Belgorod, so the video is from a few hours ago, at least.
And of the second tweet:
Together with the video, a photo was shared showing Russian military IDs against the backdrop of a sign reading “RF FSB … BORDER POINT FOR BELGOROD AND VORONEZH OBLASTS” … “BORDER CHECKPOINT GRAYVORON”.
This could indicate that the BTR was captured exactly at the checkpoint we saw being run over this morning.
And I give you the stupidest take of all!
Here are some reports which if accurate would indicate a US-backed land invasion of Russia is currently underway pic.twitter.com/PmBu67tPZp
— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) May 22, 2023
And if the reports are inaccurate, presumably Twitter will be promptly punishing all these purveyors of destabilizing disinformation
— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) May 22, 2023
That guy gives butter goblins everywhere a bad name!
This is, however, an excellent assessment:
That awkward situation when you have carried out mobilization, and hold 90% of you military in Ukraine, and have slaughtered tens of thousands of convicts and mercenaries to spend a year seizing a provincial town — and end up not able to defend your own fucking state border.
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 22, 2023
As you can see, its pretty much all Belgorod all the time for right now.
However, the Biden administration has announced another tranche of aid to Ukraine:
IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine
May 21, 2023 |Following President Biden’s meeting with President Zelenskyy in Japan, the Department of Defense (DoD) today announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This authorization is the Biden Administration’s thirty-eighth drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. It includes additional ammunition for U.S.-provided HIMARS, artillery rounds, anti-armor capabilities, and critical enablers valued at up to $375 million that Ukraine is using on the battlefield to push back against Russia’s unprovoked war of aggression.
The capabilities in this package include:
• Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
• 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
• Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
• Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
• Laser-guided rocket system munitions;
• Demolition munitions;
• Armored bridging systems;
• Armored medical treatment vehicles;
• Trucks and trailers to transport heavy equipment;
• Logistics support equipment;
• Thermal imagery systems;
• Spare parts and other field equipment.The United States will continue to work with its Allies and partners to provide Ukraine with capabilities to meet its immediate battlefield needs and longer-term security assistance requirements.
That’s enough excitement for one evening.
Your daily Patron!
A new video from Patron’s official TikTok. Apparently the embedding process has resolved itself!
@patron__dsns Коли прийшов до грумінг салону на декілька процедур одночасно🤭
Here’s the machine translation of the caption:
When you come to a grooming salon for several procedures at once 🤭
Open thread!
Gin & Tonic
Michael Tracey never fails to set the bar.
Anonymous At Work
Who wants to file a protective order on Michael Tracey? The man shouldn’t be allowed to hold a fork. Before I saw his take, I was wondering exactly how dumb a guerilla raiding group had to be to announce their location for the present and foreseeable future.
Any chance that they might be able to do some real effect, like sever the rail-lines to Starbolisk?
Alison Rose
“an anti-Putin white supremacist” – Well that’s a bit of whiplash, isn’t it? I know they say the enemy of my enemy is my friend, but ummmm.
Michael Tracey’s bio says he is a “friend to all dogs” but I’d bet the dogs would disagree. What a tool.
James Hetfield made a visit and dropped some poetry:
Thank you as always, Adam.
Anonymous At Work
@Gin & Tonic: Until you’ve figured out how to bury the bar 12 feet underground using Twitter and your barehands, show some respect. That level of massive stupidity took time and effort to perfect.
Joe Falco
@Alison Rose:
In the battle between white supremacists and Kremlin fascists, I am rooting for both sides to die. Especially if it means sparing an Ukrainian from dying because of one or the other killing each other instead.
Omnes Omnibus
Tracey is dumb enough to be a GOP Senator.
Omnes Omnibus
Didn’t the Germans send Lenin back into Russia during WWI?
Roger Moore
@Alison Rose:
Rule 34. Don’t say you weren’t warned.
Shalimar
@Omnes Omnibus: Dumb enough to get beaten up by a House member more than twice his age and less than half his weight.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: Yep, by train.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: I am getting a little Finland Station vibe from this stuff.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: I’m pretty sure they don’t have anyone as impressive or as politically dangerous as Lenin to ship back. But I’m all for these guys stirring up as much trouble as they can.
Roger Moore
@Omnes Omnibus:
In fairness, it did achieve their wartime aim. They just weren’t expecting the long-term blowback.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: Hey, I said a “little vibe.”
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: Tracking.
Mousebumples
I attempted to email this link to Adam earlier today, but since I’m actually online when the thread goes up for once, I can also just post it myself –
From Ukraine to UWM – tennis player
Alison Rose
@Roger Moore: You go sit in the corner and think about what you’ve done.
Jay
Maygar’s tweet referred to this video which dropped today, but has been overshadowed by Russia’s blitzkrieg assault on Ruzzia,……
It’s long and shows the destruction of an Orc strike force and the taking and processing of 22 “exchange fund” bodies.
Despite some fuzzy video, (filming off the images off of a drone screen) lots of interesting details.
Jay
BTW, the Russians invading Ruzzia has NAFO shitposting overtime and much of the pro-Ukraine twitter having a blast, from showing Russian’s frantically trying to pry open the locked doors of a bomb shelter, to Rybar (a vatnick channel) posting that because the Border post and Police Station were “liberated”, (not their term), the Russian’s invading Ruzzia might be wearing police uniforms so Ruzzians should just shoot anybody in a police uniform, just to be safe.
They have started sandbagging the internet borders to prevent flooding from vatnick tears,……
The Pale Scot
@Roger Moore:
Gibb’s Rules?
#34, Sometimes you are wrong
Jay
Roger Moore
@The Pale Scot:
Rule #34 of the Internet: if you can imagine it, there is porn of it.
Kyle Rayner
Having extended family in Belgorod, one of the first things I made peace with last February before the full-scale invasion even started was their safety also being forfeited if Russia attacked and Ukraine didn’t fold. I simply could not visualize then or now that Ukraine could establish a victory without at least some form of incursions onto Russian territory. At the same time, the PR of it all seemed to confound any attempts up until now. How do you cross the border without triggering a whole lot of pearl-clutching about aggression from supposed supporters, when even simply defending sovereign territory is accused of being anti-peace? Well, apparently, you don’t. You send Russians to do it. I’m feeling the comedy of it all.
I worry though that those Legion & RDK guys aren’t going to have it as easy and funny as they’re making it look now if they stay in Russia and don’t beat a speedy retreat before Russia finally responds. Anyone who captures them will go out of their way to make sure they have it far worse than anything we’ve heard about Ukranian POWs, if at all possible, on principle.
I don’t know what to make of all the white-blue-white flags showing up on social media today in response to all the Belgorod hubbub; I think people who think something coordinated is happening with those are too optimistic by far, but still. It’s exciting.
Manyakitty
@Kyle Rayner: how are your relatives, and what do they think about all this?
BeautifulPlumage
@Jay: love it!
Also, claims that the FSB & Interior Ministry buildings in Belgorod have been bombed https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1660756058049064963
And, apparently there is a nuke base near Grayveron that Russia is trying to secure?
Kyle Rayner
@Manyakitty: The less we say about how well Russia’s rural elderly have been able to stand up to the 24/7 propaganda of the last decade+ that’s been buttering them up for this, the better. There’s just no dignity in being played for a fool like that. Strangely, they’re much better at singling out these strange newfangled phone scams that keep trying to steal their meager pensions. I try to be proud of them for that, at least.
As for today’s news, they’re apparently just cantankerous about not being able to go out and tend to the vegetable watering and planting that needs doing. :) Thank you for caring and asking.
Jay
@Kyle Rayner:
the Ruzzians dropped bombs, arty, missiles, even dropping helo’s and jet fighters on Russians in Belogrod, long before there were Liberators there.
The “Liberation Forces” there, have conducted raids into Ruzzia before, with out getting mauled. They have solid flanks, one road in, several routes out, and the Ruzzian’s ran away when they attacked.
I am pretty sure this is just a deep raid, forcing the Ruzzian’s to reposition a large force and force Ruzzia to guard everywhere.
Adam L Silverman
@Kyle Rayner: Those are the Russian Legion’s flag. Which I’m sure you’re aware of.
Jinchi
@Gin & Tonic: Should we know who Michael Tracey is? I don’t think I ever noticed that name prior to his twitter rants about Ukraine.
Anoniminous
The consequences of the fall of Bakhmut are grave.
Kyle Rayner
@Jay: “have conducted raids into Ruzzia before, with out getting mauled. They have solid flanks, one road in, several routes out,”
Oh, I didn’t see anything about this. I almost got the impression they were on something of a suicide mission. Like “SOMEONE had to do it.” Thanks for the info.
Yeah, all that other stuff is very much what I mean when I say Russia itself forfeited the safety of its citizens.
Maxim
Thanks for all the info about Belogorod, Adam, and for your gracious response last night to my comment the other night. I certainly hope the new rhetoric we’re seeing is a sign that things have changed, and will stay changed.
Kyle Rayner
@Adam L Silverman: No, actually! I only ever saw it referred to as a protest flag.
Omnes Omnibus
@Jinchi: Michael Tracey
Jay
He’s a vatnick and Putin fluffer on twitter,
“In June 2017, congresswoman Maxine Waters walked away from an interview with Tracey and pushed aside his hand and microphone.[4] The incident was captured on video. Tracey said that Waters had “initiated unwarranted physical contact” and “shoved” him, but that it was “not a violent shove”.[4]”
Since the Ruzzian re-invasion he’s most infamous for running around Eastern European NATO bases, filming with a cell phone “proof” of NATO’s invasion of Ruzzia, until he get’s caught, deported and banned
Oh, and trying to argue with brain dead shiba inu’s on twitter.
Adam L Silverman
@Maxim: You’re most welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@Kyle Rayner: From what I understand it is the flag they wear on their uniforms and use. Hence:
Adam L Silverman
Jay
@BeautifulPlumage:
RUASF base, but it has some tactical nukes, apparently. Just 10km up the road.
Manyakitty
@Kyle Rayner: wishing them the best. Hope you get many more years of arguing with them. 🤞🤞
Jay
Jay
Roger Moore
@Jinchi:
He’s an allegedly left wing commentator who seems to be proof of the horseshoe theory of politics. He used to work for The Young Turks, and started to turn into a tankie when he questioned whether Russia had interfered with the 2016 election.
Other than that, he’s probably most famous for a confrontation with Maxine Waters in which she pushed his microphone away from her as part of trying to stop an impromptu interview. He tried to play this up into her shoving him. People who don’t like him- of which there are many- made fun of him for the exaggeration by further exaggerating this into a bloody (sometimes described as fatal) assault.
Jay
Amir Khalid
The idea of Russia having to defend against a domestic insurgency while its war of conquest in Ukraine is foundering is a tasty one.
Kyle Rayner
@Adam L Silverman: Reminds me of when someone projected the Ukranian flag onto the Russian embassy, and the Russians tried to chase/block it out with a spotlight, all in vain. :)
But I’ve definitely also seen that flag used in photographs of regular citizen protests. Perhaps I was missing context.
That last quote from Ponomarev is astute. (Am I the only one having trouble keeping it straight which group’s the one with a far-right leader? I need to write it on the back of my hand or something.)
OverTwistWillie
RUMINT is the 74th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade has being deployed to quell the revolution. You might remember their annihilation at the Siverskyi Donets River crossing.
BeautifulPlumage
@Jay: thanks, that wasn’t clear from the few posts I saw. Not that I assume the incursion was headed for that in particular, just a nice RAF panty-pooping plus.
Manyakitty
@Kyle Rayner: that would be Ben Wittes. He delights in running repeated “special military operations” outside the Russian embassy in DC. He has an assortment of projectors and a band of similarly-motivated friends. He’s off Twitter, but you can find him on Facebook, Substack, YouTube, the Brookings Institution/Lawfare websites (but those are for his actual professional activities), etc.
Manyakitty
@Kyle Rayner: here’s a little more information about Ben Wittes and his plans. https://open.substack.com/pub/benjaminwittes/p/lets-plant-sunflowers?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android
Kyle Rayner
@Manyakitty: LMFAO, my kinda guy. I’ve felt his pain on not getting publicly blacklisted by the right people.
Ngl, really wishing I was free to drive down to DC this Saturday. 🌻 Thanks for the info!
Manyakitty
@Kyle Rayner: same! The closest I come is starting sunflowers in my little plastic greenhouse and passing them out to anyone who wants. 🌻
PS, you’re welcome, and enjoy!
YY_Sima Qian
@Amir Khalid: Many an empire has fallen this way.
AlaskaReader
@Roger Moore: Who alledges Tracy is ‘left wing’?
Michael Tracy has never been ‘left wing’.
Carlo Graziani
“Occupy territory”?
Give me a fucking break. If these guys are for real (and not just UA special effects), they are doomed. The model here is called “Bay of Pigs”.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: Wait, I thought it was more “madden the bull, so the picadors can skewer it right good” ? I figure these Russian freedom fighters ™ are gonna romp until Russia is forced to bring in real troops and heavy armor, and then they’ll skedaddle back to Ukraine; Ukraine will proceed to give those troops a pasting with artillery, just to fucking erase them from the map, take them off the board ?
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: To even survive, they require—and evidently expect—some kind of popular uprising triggered by their arrival. They cannot be resupplied, cannot be supported, cannot prevent themselves from being cut off from withdrawal. Barring a massive popular revolt of people supporting their liberation from tyrrany, they are well and truly fucked.
There isn’t going to be any such uprising. The expectation of such a greeting is the same kind of pure unadulterated delusion that guided planning for the Bay of Pigs invasion. These guys are going to the gulag. And I very much doubt that Ukraine will prioritize their prisoner exchange.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: Right, right, I agree with everything you wrote. And that’s why I’d expect that once Russia actually brings in real troops, they skedaddle back to Ukraine? I mean (to follow along with your reasoning) they can’t be delusional enough to think they can succeed? And for *sure* Ukraine’s military and *Budanov* aren’t delusional enough to give them a tank and AFVs if they weren’t sure, and I mean *SURE* that they’d bring ’em right back when the RU heavies arrived on scene ?
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: Belgorod is the principal Russian supply depot for the entire war effort. The Russian army is already there, in force. Cutting these guys off is a matter of making some phone calls.
I honestly hope that this is just special effects, firecrackers by a few operators, rather than the actual US Civil War-style cavalry adventure that it purports to be. Because if these really are idealistic kids who think that they can take their country back, they’ve been had.
Ruckus
@Roger Moore:
I believe that if he’s dumb enough to screw with Maxine, he’s dumb as a box of rocks. Because Maxine takes zero crap. At the woman’s march in LA, as they were getting ready to speak, the mic was live and Maxine used a choice word that got wild applause from the crowd. It was the most likely word you could imagine someone speaking, thinking the mic was off.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: to your second para: I can only agree completely. And again, I cannot believe that Budanov and Zaluzhny would be stupid enough to spare a single tank for anything other than what you describe a razzle-dazzle anger-the-bull move-armor-away-from-Donbass/Zaporizhzhia raid.
to your first para: yes, it’s Russia’s logistics hub, but OTOH, it seems realistic that perhaps RU doesn’t actually have a serious garrison there, have serious defensive positions and such, b/c hey, they don’t expect Ukraine to attack there. You (and others) have written about how once Ukraine gets past RU’s defensive front line, they should be able to run amok in “the backfield”, b/c RU won’t have much in the way of defenses back there. Maybe the same is true in Bilhorod? [I don’t know, so asking] If that were the case, then this little adventure would/should/could be a way of forcing Russia to build up those defenses, build up that garrison, which should take assets away from the front line in Ukraine.
Shaping the battlefield. Or so it would seem.
Again, if this isn’t just a shaping operation, it’s malpractice. For sure.
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: Without resupply of gas and ammunition, these people become dismounted, lightly-armed infantry within a couple of days. The Russians could probably send cops to arrest them, if their attack helicopters happen to be too busy.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: Heh, surely they can get gas&ammo, and other consumables, from any military PX, riiiight? I wouldn’t see that as a reason for them to call it a day and head back to Kharkiv. The only reason to do that, is when RU heavy armor or serious infantry are moving in their direction.
Chetan Murthy
Have any of you watched the Budanov video? He says those who surrender via this hotline can request to be resettled to certain European countries! Boy howdy, that’s gotta be more attractive than a dirty muddy grisly death! I’m surprise they’re not making a bigger deal of that part of the offer!
I remember Kamil Galeev was saying that they should make this explicit: “surrender, and get an all-expenses paid vacation to Argentina” (or, y’know, Spain, or whatever). B/c FFS, that’s gotta be better than
a kick in the headlife in Yekaterinburg.Ked
I first noticed the fracas in Belgorod today through tankie comms – including a really rancid news channel on Twitch which somehow filtered into my recommendations – and thus my first impression of this was that it was probably Russian false-flag activity. It certainly has the flavor at first glance – nonsensical attacks in a (currently) unimportant place designed to inflame Russian opinion involving strange factions. And all the usual influencers feeding at the Russian teat are immediately on-message.
On a slightly deeper look there does seem to be some kind of there there. These aren’t entirely LGMs, there’s some kind of connection to legit UKR-aligned forces, and I could imagine it being sort of a false-flag to set up troop movements they can exploit or even a sort of reversed Donetsk scenario. But Carlos’s characterization of this as Bay of Pigs-level tactics is spot on. Or widespread martyr-syndrome memetic spread (in the real contagious-thought sense of meme, not the debased modern usage).
But unless the Big Offensive shows up in the next two weeks, this still seems really fake and irrational. I’d say the odds are this is Putin trying to chessmaster again.
BeautifulPlumage
Special Kherson Cat commented that the chosen area of Grayvoron has 2 rivers on two borders and UKR on the other two. Maybe they don’t go to Belgorod. Maybe they have already cached supplies in the area, or have a few operatives inside. I don’t see UKR supplying a lost cause.
ETA it is a Twitter post/comment
Sebastian
@Ked:
The boys had MRAPs and humvees. They were equipped by Ukraine and Ukraine wanted Russia to know.
Jay
As of today, (Tuesday), the Mordor MOD has claimed that the “terrorists” have been defeated, with over 70 killed, (conveniently, on the Ukrainian side of the border), admitting that they are “Russian ethnics who lived in Ukraine but still Ukrainian”, while warning residents to still stay indoors, and that any shooting, explosions or fires are a result of the Orc Army conducting “mopping up” operations, or accidentally discarded cigarettes.
Meanwhile, on the internet, the Rebel’s are laughing at the Orc’s claims and posting vids of their continued presence and ongoing combat ops, some which have been geolocated to villages even deeper in Mordor. Residents have also been posting vids confirming this along with vids showing ongoing evacuations of the region.