Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

“That’s what the insurrection act is for!”

We’ll be taking my thoughts and prayers to the ballot box.

Let us savor the impending downfall of lawless scoundrels who richly deserve the trouble barreling their way.

He seems like a smart guy, but JFC, what a dick!

“The defense has a certain level of trust in defendant that the government does not.”

🎶 Those boots were made for mockin’ 🎵

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

You are so fucked. Still, I wish you the best of luck.

An unpunished coup is a training exercise.

No one could have predicted…

If you’re pissed about Biden’s speech, he was talking about you.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.

if you can’t see it, then you are useless in the fight to stop it.

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. let’s win this.

This isn’t Democrats spending madly. This is government catching up.

Cole is on a roll !

I like you, you’re my kind of trouble.

Second rate reporter says what?

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 459: (Some of) You Have Questions, I (May) Have Answers

War for Ukraine Day 459: (Some of) You Have Questions, I (May) Have Answers

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A quick housekeeping note: I have a family event that I cannot get out of tomorrow afternoon. So tomorrow night’s post might be a bit later than usual. It may also be a bit briefer than usual as well.

Also, commenter Bex* sent me a video – I did not miss it or forget about it – but because I can only access the Balloon Juice email Alain set up for me on my iPad as its the only device I didn’t need to set back up when I switched MacBook Pros, I need to forward it to myself so I can get it into a post.

* If it wasn’t Bex, please correct me in the comments and take credit.

Last night in comments, dimmsdale asked:

Just wondering if any of the informed commentators here would care to speculate on the odds (and/or the means) of keeping the Rooskis’ military broken, reduced, and hopefully impotent once peace in Ukraine is achieved? I realize this is a VERY speculative question, and maybe it’s way too soon to put any intellectual energy into considering it, but isn’t it clear to the entire world that they can never ever again be allowed to raise a military with any offensive capability at all?

The model here should be what we did to reestablish the German military and establish the Japanese Self Defense Forces after World War II. Unfortunately, that would require treating Ukraine’s self defense against a genocidal re-invasion as the (most) kinetic element of a largely non-kinetic world war. Which we are most definitely not doing. As a result, whatever Ukraine is able to achieve is what will be achieved. And Russia will limp along under Putin or whomever takes over. All while nursing its ahistorical grievances and doing whatever it can to rebuild its military and its economy so it can then begin the cycle of revenge all over again.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Kyiv and all our cities, the whole of Ukraine will put an end to the history of Moscow’s despotism – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

28 May 2023 – 19:05

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, our country went through one of the largest Russian attacks by Shaheds – 54 drones at a time. Almost all of them were shot down… Almost! Unfortunately, there were some hits in the Zhytomyr region. We will do everything to help restore what has been destroyed.

But still, most of the destruction was averted, and most of the lives that could have been taken by these Shaheds were saved. I am grateful to each and every person who made it possible! Anti-aircraft missile troops and aviation of the Air Force, air defense of the Ground Forces and our mobile fire groups… Thank you, warriors!

During this terrorist attack, the most powerful strike was aimed against the Kyiv region. Within the city of Kyiv and the region, 36 drones were shot down. This is how Russia celebrates the day of our ancient Kyiv…

Throughout its history, Kyiv has seen various meannesses from invaders. It has survived them all, and it will survive the ruscists. None of them will be here! Kyiv and all our cities, our entire Ukraine, will put an end to the history of Moscow’s despotism, which has been bringing enslavement to many different peoples for a very long time. Neither Shaheds nor any other means of terror that it humiliatingly seeks around the world will save it. Because strength is in people, it is in cities, it is in life, and when life, people, and the most important cities for culture are despised, Russia will only face defeat. And even hundreds of Shaheds will not save it from this. They will only enlarge Russia’s disgrace.

These days, we congratulate Kyiv and Oleksandriya, Severodonetsk, Kalush, Kryvyi Rih… Cities of different destinies, but of our equal respect. Our Ukraine. Our faith that we will pass this extremely difficult stage of history… We will, and all our cities will be free, and our people will be protected from any evil that may threaten our country.

Today I want to thank all our people who have fought and are fighting for Ukraine – all our warriors, all branches of the Armed Forces and all kinds of troops, every brigade, every unit. Thank you! To all those who are in combat, to all those who are on combat missions, to all those who are at combat posts!

And I thank everyone without whom we cannot imagine effective resistance of the state and effective defense of our cities. I am grateful to each and every one who trains our warriors and heals their wounds. Who produces and supplies weapons. Who provides our logistics and communications. I thank everyone who provides Ukraine with intelligence information and who spreads the truth about the war and Russian terror around the world. I am grateful to each and every one who ensures our rescue operations after enemy attacks and eliminates their consequences.

I am grateful to everyone in the world who cares and who wants freedom to win as much as we do.

All our power engineers and transport workers. Thank you! Ukrzaliznytsia. Defense industry. All our volunteers. United24 and our ambassadors. Thank you! Our law enforcement officers. Local authorities. Employees of public utilities. Our education system. Our cultural figures. Our historians. All those who keep jobs and all those who create jobs – no matter what. Our farmers, workers of our agricultural sector. Our industry. Our IT specialists. Our civil servants. Our diplomats. I thank everyone who strengthens our defense, our state, and our people!

The fact that our capital is free, the fact that our cities defend themselves with dignity, the fact that we will liberate every currently occupied city – all this is the merit of many people. All those who are fighting and working for Ukraine. This is the merit of our powerful nation that knows how to do historic things. When it is united. When it realizes its strength. When it forgives the enemy nothing. And when it inspires the whole world.

We are going forward until we liberate all of our Ukrainian land… We are defending every city… We take care of each other and remember all our people whom we have to bring home from Russian captivity to their cities and villages.

Glory to our beautiful people!

Glory to all who care about our country!

Glory to Ukraine!

Today is Kyiv Day.

Full text of Minister of Defense Reznikov’s tweet:

Today we celebrate #KyivDay!
Kyiv, a city of free and brave people, has become a symbol of Ukraine’s unbreakable spirit and the Kremlin’s failed imperial ambitions.
Last night, Kyiv survived one of the largest russian air attacks since the beginning of the war.
They have failed yet again.
Kyiv stands strong.
They didn’t take you in 3 days. They couldn’t intimidate you in 459 days. They will be defeated.
Happy birthday, Kyiv!

From the Ukrainian MOD’s Telegram channel:

The Russians also opened up on Ukraine, especially Kyiv, overnight.

There is something going on in southeastern Ukraine. By something I mean strikes on Mariupol, as well as reports of strikes on Avdiivka and other locations as well. Which might provide the context to this somewhat cryptic statement of Minister of Defense Reznikov.

Tymofiy Mylovanov, the president of the Kyiv School of Economics, had a very good and informative thread on what life is like in Kyiv right now. First and second tweets from the thread followed by the rest from the Thread Reader App:

Here is the McDonalds video. Some popular accounts retweeted it separately, others just copied the video without attribution.

Many of them are anti-Ukrainian, some are skeptics.

One of the frequent comments: there is no war in Ukraine, it doesn’t look like a war zone. 2/

Unroll available on Thread Reader

Let’s debunk this “no war zone” argument.

The last night, I woke up to the sound of explosions. There were three loud pops real close outside our apartment. The windows shook but held. Believe me it is not pleasant. There was a largest ever drone attack on Kyiv. People died. 3/ImageImageImage

My sister, who lives in a different area, said they could not sleep. It was very loud, explosions, air defense, sound of shaheds.

Russia sent 54 attack drones, and 52 were intercepted. Again, civilians died.

You can read more here
ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/371… 4/ImageImage

So, take me. I am the person who took that video in McDonalds on Friday night, and who could easily been hit by a drone on Saturday night. So, yes, it is a war zone. Even if McDonalds or other businesses don’t convey that impression. 5/ 

But they actually do so if you are perceptive. First, there are many more women than men in the video (approximately 27/17). Second, out of 27 men, two are wearing uniform, and another one is semi plain cloth military (hat, belt). That’s 18%. 6/

Unroll available on Thread Reader
Two more males give a military vibe. Military intelligence is often plain clothed. This applies also to territorial defense and to people on rotation or on vacation. There are several high school aged males who are not eligible to draft yet. And there are servers. 7/ 

So, if you watch the video carefully, about 1/3 or more are military or likely to be military related.

But it is also true that we try not to show military in the videos here, unless it is officially authorized. For obvious security reasons. 8/ 

For example, in this very video, there are two military men at the end. Later they turn around and you can see their faces. Then, they join a larger group of military. I cut that part off for security reasons. 9/ 
I put pictures of destroyed buildings and videos of civilian life, but I never take videos on military equipment or personnel. For example, in the video above, in the first tweet, the intention is to show no military, even if there were some. I trimmed the video accordingly. 10/ 

Now, let’s get to the second myth or argument: the fighting age males should be on the front line / otherwise it doesn’t look like an existential fight.

This is false. If we send all males to the front our economy will collapse. We are 40 m nation, 3m are involved directly. 11/ 

Many millions of others are involved indirectly in defense effort, but they are civilians – volunteers, analysts, donors, logistics, R&D, diplomacy, cyber warfare, etc.

So, no, not every fighting age male should be sent to the front of the war is existential 12/ 

Then, there is an argument that the vibe is too good for the wartime.

This is one is silly. Look carefully at the faces of people. Many of them are grim. They are not carefree. People are looking for normalcy, and McDonalds offers a semblance. 13/ 

A McDonalds trip on a Friday night is something from the pre war time. Something good, from the life without bombs.

Yes, my wife and I go to movie theaters. I guess the same people would be shocked to learn the theaters work and their popcorn and we watch Marvel. 14/Image

It helps us forget about the war for a couple of hours but it is not quite the same. There is curfew, the theaters shut down early, and you can see a lot of people in uniform or wounded.

The train shows the most in children. Anything can trigger a panic attack in them. 15/ 

Let me address the complains about good service and hygiene, better in the US.

You should not assume Ukrainians don’t clean or are not polite because of the war.

It is more of the reflection on the IS that their McDonalds are not always in a good shape. 16/ 

Then, there is this argument “our tax payers money goes to Ukraine so they can eat in McDonalds”.

The opposite is true. Because economy is operating, because people go to restaurant, Ukraine has its own tax base to defend itself and requires less support than otherwise. 17/ 

So, McDonalds on Friday night is complementary to the defense effort. Because a good economy help to have stronger military. 18/ 

Now, people also said “why should we send any money to Ukraine if our people are suffering more than those in this McDonalds”.

This is an important question. First, both in Ukraine and in the West there are poor people and there are well off people. 19/ 

Everywhere around the world we should work on reducing power Ty and inequality. But this argument is irrelevant to the support of Ukraine.

What happens if Russia wins? There will be more spending on defense on the West and funds will be taken away from education, social support 

A more fundamental question is why the West should support Ukraine. Many people said “we don’t care, it is not our fight”. Well, yes and no. Of Ukraine falls it will mean that the West is weak. The consequences – a more coloration world, weaker standing of the US and NATO. 21/ 

The consequences are clear – more terrorism, more political polarization and radicalization, threats in Europe and Asia, hurt global economy, disrupted supply chains, higher prices.

So, if we are honest to ourselves, then Ukraines victory is national interest of the West 22X. 

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There’s a video(ish) version at Patron’s official TikTok, but we’ve got the embedding issue again. So just click through on this link to see it.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

49Comments

  1. 1.

    jackmac

    Fifty-four Shaheds launched at Ukraine today?  I realize that Russia is doing the firing, but Iran is doing the supplying.  Talk about a major miscalculation. The mullahs in charge of Iran have cast their lot with Russia at this point, but when this war is over and Ukraine emerges victorious the clerics may find very few friends among Western nations and immediate neighbors and none in Ukraine.

  3. 3.

    Jay

    Russia has launched 10 Tu-95 long range bomber aircraft.Tonight will likely be one of the largest missle barrages onto Ukrainian cities since the beginning of the war.Overwhelming our air defenses is their goal— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) May 28, 2023

    Drones and missiles being thrown at #Kyiv. Think we are in for another long night.— Dame Melinda Simmons (@MelSimmonsFCDO) May 28, 2023

  7. 7.

    Jay

    1/ Sergei Shoigu's chestful of medals has been highlighted by @rshereme, who points out that the Russian Defence Minister has never served in the military despite his uniform and decorations. But the full story is both ridiculous and revealing. ⬇️https://t.co/WgUf3nTesJ— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) May 28, 2023

  11. 11.

    Uncle Cosmo

    Hey, Hiyo.**..um, Adam… Slightly o/t, but – Since (as a rule) you seem busy as a paraplegic matador, shouldn’t we all just take it as the “ground state” that your nightly updates will (as a rule) be brief? That way you don’t need to half-apologize for the brevity, and on the infrequent occasions when you’re in a position to really run up the word count, you can announce a “Not-So-Brief-For-Once!” update…

    ** Can’t help thinking of you as Hiyo, Silverman, oy vey! … And yeah, like the largest tranche of the Loan Arranger’s beneficiaries, seems like I never get around to thanking you for this invaluable body of work. So thanx already…

  13. 13.

    Alison Rose

    That thread from Mylovanov is terrific and so important. It aggravates the hell out of me that people see a few pictures of life appearing “normal” in certain parts of Ukraine and think “see, no war”. For one thing, we’re not talking about a nation the size of Malta or something. The distance from Lviv near the Western border to Kharkiv in the East is roughly equal to the distance from the California-Oregon border to Santa Barbara. Even just from Kyiv to Kharkiv is about the distance from San Francisco to Santa Barbara. If someone was bombing Santa Barbara, it’s not like everyone in San Francisco would be running for the hills. And even within the City, if you live in say the Marina District and someone’s sending drones into Visitacion Valley, yeah you’re probably still going to try to go about your day because wtf else are you going to do?

    Also…do people think Ukrainians don’t, like, eat? Do they see a quick meal at McDonald’s as some sort of lap-of-luxury moment? Good Lord.

    But we know most of the people saying shit like that can’t be logic-ed out of it because they’re too stupid and/or putin-loving to be logic-able.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  14. 14.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Alison Rose:

    But we know most of the people saying shit like that can’t be logic-ed out of it because they’re too stupid and/or putin-loving to be logic-able.

    “What does pretending I believe this statement allow me to do?”

    ETA: That’s what they’re thinking.

  15. 15.

    Chief Oshkosh

    Short, long, early, late — doesn’t matter, Adam. Your work that results in these posts is meaningful, it is significant. Thank you.

  16. 16.

    Jay

    @Alison Rose:

    saw a nice NAFO takedown of a vatnick today over that “issue”.

    pointed out that they were a moron,

    and that they had pulled a Leaf’s logo into their header, ( to fake being Canadian) that they were too dumb to ever understand geopolitics,

    followed by hundreds of other NAFO dogs posting dog pooping GIF’s.

  17. 17.

    Anonymous At Work

    Any reason for the absence of Iranian drones, or their return?

    Also, Cuba?  Why? Is Raoul really that old school?

  21. 21.

    Another Scott

    ICYMI, VOANews.com:

    […]

    “It’s something I cannot describe, probably. I try to put my emotions aside any time I go out on court. I think I’m better than before, and I don’t think it affects me as much on a daily basis, but yeah, it’s just — I don’t know,” Kostyuk said, shaking her head. “There is not much to say, really. It’s just part of my life.”

    That, then, is why Kostyuk has decided she will not exchange the usual post-match pleasantries with opponents from Russia or Belarus. And that is why she avoided a handshake — avoided any eye contact, even — after losing to Australian Open champion Sabalenka 6-3, 6-2 on Day 1 at Roland Garros.

    What surprised the 20-year-old, 39th-ranked Kostyuk on Sunday was the reaction she received from the spectators in Court Philippe-Chatrier; They loudly booed and derisively whistled at her as she walked directly over to acknowledge the chair umpire instead of congratulating the winner after the lopsided result. The negative response grew louder as she gathered her belongings and walked off the court toward the locker room.

    […]

    Sabalenka called Sunday “emotionally tough” — because of mundane, tennis-related reasons, such as the nerves that come with a first-round match, but more significantly because of the unusual circumstances involving the war.

    “You’re playing against (a) Ukrainian, and you never know what’s going to happen. You never know how people will — will they support you or not?” explained Sabalenka, who went down an early break and trailed 3-2 before reeling off six consecutive games with powerful first-strike hitting. “I was worried, like, people will be against me, and I don’t like to play when people (are) so much against me.”

    A journalist from Ukraine asked Sabalenka what her message to the world is about the war, particularly in this context: She can overtake Iga Swiatek at No. 1 in the rankings based on results over the next two weeks and, therefore, serves as a role model.

    “Nobody in this world, Russian athletes or Belarusian athletes, support the war. Nobody. How can we support the war? Nobody — normal people — will never support it. Why (do) we have to go loud and say that things? This is like: ‘One plus one (is) two.’ Of course, we don’t support war,” Sabalenka said. “If it could affect anyhow the war, if it could like stop it, we would do it. But unfortunately, it’s not in our hands.”

    When a portion of those comments was read to Kostyuk by a reporter, she responded in calm, measured tones that she doesn’t get why Sabalenka does not come out and say that “she personally doesn’t support this war.”

    Kostyuk also rejected the notion that players from Russia or Belarus could be in a tough spot upon returning to those countries if they were to speak out about what is happening in Ukraine.

    “I don’t know why it’s a difficult situation,” Kostyuk said with a chuckle.

    “I don’t know what other players are afraid of,” she said. “I go back to Ukraine, where I can die any second from drones or missiles or whatever it is.”

    Kostyuk is right about that, of course.

    The Tennis Channel coverage erases RUS and BLR flags and rarely mentions the home countries of players representing them, but is more than happy to hype the players. They would have (and probably did) throw a fit if there were any more restrictions on players from those 2 countries.

    Wimbledon and other venues claiming that they are somehow “neutral players” isn’t fooling anyone.

    I have some sympathy for the players, but if the country is sanctioned then it seems like pro players from the country who are still representing the country should be sanctioned as well.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  22. 22.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Another Scott:

    Wimbledon and other venues claiming that they are somehow “neutral players” isn’t fooling anyone.

    Anybody who claims they’re neutral in this war is a liar: they support Russia.  And while *at the limit* I can understand Australia — after all, gosh, there’s no way they can be affected by Russia winning and eventually steamrolling all of Europe, riiiiight? — Wimbledon has no damn excuse: Ukraine is fighting to protect all of Europe, ffs.

  24. 24.

    Andrya

    @Chetan Murthy:  Re: Australia, there is the issue of karma and ingratitude.  If the US and the UK had not fought Imperial Japan in the Pacific, Australia would, sooner or later, have had a real problem on their hands.

    I welcome comments/corrections from the many jackals who are military history buffs.

  25. 25.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Andrya: Heh, can only agree with you.  As I said, “*at the limit*”.  But it takes *extraordinary* shortsightedness to not see that Ukraine is protecting all of Europe from Russia.

  27. 27.

    Anoniminous

    @Jay:

    It’s a cross-country border water conflict.  With any amount of luck they’ll spend the next couple of years killing each other.

  28. 28.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Anoniminous: I read soomeplace that part of what’s driving this, is the Afghan Taliban leaders trying to gin up conflict into which to throw the militant younger members.  B/c those young’uns are unhappy that the Taliban aren’t, y’know, implementing the real Islamic whatever-it-is that they want, y’know, really putting it [ETA: the oppression, of course] to the women and girls in Afghanistan, etc.  And the leadership …. well, they realize that now they actually have to *run* a country, and doing that sort of (even-more-)extreme(-than-they’re-doing-now) shit won’t, y’know, help them actually *run* things tolerably.

  29. 29.

    Lyrebird

    @Anoniminous: With any amount of luck they’ll spend the next couple of years killing each other.

    I don’t know if you’re being sarcastic or serious.  That kind of thinking has been tried but hasn’t gone so well in Iraq or Iran or Afg. so far.

  32. 32.

    Jay

    warning, not safe

    "Here are the Orenburg mobilized soldiers who are allegedly not sent to the front line, they are lying here, all of us are sent here, all and our commanders, and it is impossible to get out of here, even the 500th are not taken away, and they have been lying rotting for weeks" pic.twitter.com/zG6loyFsz1— Bakhmut Counters 🇺🇦 F-16 Slava Ukraini (@Heroiam_Slava) May 28, 2023

  33. 33.

    Jay

    😡 Russians stole a Mariupol tiger cub from UkraineThe animal was born 3 months ago in the Mariupol zoo. The tiger was raised by a local shepherdess because its biological mother did not accept it. They did not think twice and took the tiger to Moscow to the Big Moscow Circus pic.twitter.com/RufbEabD2f— Bakhmut Counters 🇺🇦 F-16 Slava Ukraini (@Heroiam_Slava) May 27, 2023

  34. 34.

    Carlo Graziani

    ISW, today:

    The Russian allocation of aerial munitions to targeting Kyiv rather than prioritizing infrastructure or military facilities continues to constrain this limited Russian air campaign’s ability to meaningfully degrade Ukrainian offensive capabilities for the upcoming counteroffensive…

    Well, yes. And this speaks to issues of Russian unity of command, and Russian capacity for coherent planning.

    At a time when the Russian ground forces are in a defensive crouch almost everywhere across the various fronts that they have dispersed themselves along, in justified expectation of a violent Ukrainian onslaught, their aviation and rocket forces are still targeting the civilian infrastructure that comprise the strategic objectives from their theories of victory from January (“let the Ukrainians freeze in the dark”) and March (“tie up Ukrainian AA defenses far back from the front line”). I’m pretty sure that if ground force commanders could specify Shahed targets they’d be launching at C3 objectives, railheads, training/muster institutions, anything to fuck up Ukrainian ground ops.

    But they’re not, which indicates total incoherence of their war planning, and likely vicious turf wars among the services that complement the Prigozhin/MOD shootouts. I’ll take either end of a modest bet at 3:1 odds that missile/drone target selection undergoes no significant changes when UA ground ops begin in earnest. The Russian missileers will continue to pursue their own theory of victory irrespective of the needs of their own grunts.

  36. 36.

    Chetan Murthy

    ugh: https://defence24.com/armed-forces/western-fighters-for-ukraine-air-to-air-missiles-are-the-key

    The two choices that are discussed most often are F-16 and Gripen. F-16 has the advantage of being available in large numbers both in Europe and in US, as well as being extremely flexible in terms of the air to ground weaponry it can effectively employ, and being a competitive beyond-visual-range fighter when employing later versions of AIM-120 AMRAAM air to air missile.

    On the other hand, it has noticeable drawbacks. First and foremost, its effectiveness at beyond visual range against Russian jets from low altitudes is contingent on the US being ready to supply the latest versions of AIM-120 AMRAAM – either AIM-120C7/C8, or ideally AIM-120D. However, those are the same missiles US relies on for its own air superiority requirements against China or against any other state actor.

    If they were supplied to Ukrainian Air Force for air-to-air use, they would be fired against Russian jets flying over Russian territory. They would very likely be rapidly recovered and not only examined by Russia but also shipped to China, and potentially also to Iran, and thus be compromised. These long range AMRAAM variants are necessary precisely due to Russian long- and medium-range SAM systems, because the threat from these will keep any fighter at very low altitude near frontlines. Even Western-supplied fighters will not be able to fly at high altitude and speed to maximize range, as the AMRAAM was originally designed for. To avoid being engaged by S-400 and similar systems, you will have to launch the missiles from low altitude against targets flying at medium and high altitude and with higher speeds. Consequently, missiles will have to start flying in dense, high drag air and climb against gravity, which will dramatically reduce their effective range.

  37. 37.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy: Good point by the article on Ukrainian fighters cannot fly high & fast to maximize the engagement envelop of the AIM-120s, due to the threat of the S-400s. The Ukrainian Air Force will also have to take extreme care targeting Russian aircraft at long ranges, lest they bring down a Russian/Belorrusian/3rd party airliner by mistake. 3rd party airlines will probably flight further north over Russian/Belorussian airspace to avoid the risk, but Putin is probably cynical enough to order Aeroflot/S7 passenger planes to fly in close proximity of Russian bombers, to create the conditions for exactly such a shoot down.

  38. 38.

    Chetan Murthy

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    Ukrainian fighters cannot fly high & fast to maximize the engagement envelop of the AIM-120s, due to the threat of the S-400s.

    Bronk’s been pointing this out for *months*.  It seems pretty clear he’s decided that Gripens are the best short-term choice.  And given that we’ve decided to give UA F-16s, it’s the same as saying “nah brah, you’re gonna fight this war without Western fighters.”  Which …. heavy sigh.

  39. 39.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Wide ranging interview by the New Statesmen with Ambassador Fu Cong, head of the Chinese mission to the EU.

    Here is the abridged transcript published by the New Statesmen, including some background analysis.

    Here is the full transcript published by the Chinese mission to the EU.

    Here is more background from Pekinology, including proposed EU sanctions that might hit 8 Chinese companies for evading EU sanctions against Russia, & how the EU sanctions different from US sanctions.

    Ambassador Fu’s answers are unsurprisingly vague, evasive & self-serving, but does confirm real limits to  China’s support of Putin. Maintaining relations w/ the EU is prominent in China’s calculations.

  40. 40.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy: The Gripens have limitations as a solution, too. F-16s in Ukrainian hands is still much better than no F-16s. Perhaps the UAF can 1st use them for SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) to take out the Russian S-300/400 batteries.

  41. 41.

    dirge

    @YY_Sima Qian: Perhaps the UAF can 1st use them for SEAD…

    The current US wild weasel is an F16 variant, to be transitioned to F35.  Doubt they’ll get those specific F16 configurations, but they do have HARMs, and their pilots certainly have the balls, if not all the training one would wish.  And there’s reason to suspect RU SAMs operate at less than optimal capability for the usual RU reasons.

    I’d rate it risky, but plausible.  They might try it if they don’t have higher priorities for the F16, and they’re willing to lose a few.  Huge payoff if they can pull off a couple successful SEAD missions.

  42. 42.

    TheMightyTrowel

    @Andrya: Hi, hello, I’m in australia. I can’t speak to (all or even most of) military history, but here’s a start:

    Australians generally support Ukraine, our government (under two separate parties as we had an election last May) sends tangible military support and equipment – not huge quantities but please remember (a) we’re a small country (25 mil) and (b) we’re so f’d by our history of extractive colonial conquest that we actually don’t build much here so have to order our own military vehicles from overseas.
    Tennis almost unquestionably represents the worst of australia – they broke covid regs, name courts after raging homophobes, and generally are out of step with all but the whitest and wealthiest elements of the country
    I’d be really f’ing careful talking about Australia’s need for gratitude to the US/UK – yes WW2 would have been bad, but it was already (look up the bombing of Darwin) and Australia frankly pre-paid in copious blood during WW1 for the protection in WW2. The US military still has permanent bases in Australia (mostly in the Northern Territory, but elsewhere as well) and the queen’s rep the Gov Gen aided the previous highly corrupt Prime Minister to illegally make himself minister of many different portfolios to filter money to his friends. It’s been 80 years since WW2 (and see mass death in WW1/credit for payment with blood), the ongoing effects of British colonial occupation still distort the country’s politics and economic stability, and the US military never left.

  46. 46.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy: Iraq War isn’t the distant past for the Middle East or the Global South, even if most Americans turned the page after most US forces withdrew from 2010. The rise of ISIS, civil war in Syria, refugee crises in Türkiye & Europe, & greater regional assertiveness/aggressiveness by Iran, are all direct consequences of the toppling of Saddam Hussein. Likewise w/ the intervention into Libya. The country turning into a failed state (& proxy battlefield for Türkiye, the UAE & Qatar) & destabilization of the Sahel region are direct consequences of the toppling of Qaddafi. It is in these regional turmoil that Putin & Wagner have found opening to insert themselves.

  49. 49.

    Paul in KY

    Both Germany (West) and Japan became our allies after WW II. Think that was key in us and other WW II allies allowing them to have a functional military.

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