*Friday afternoon is always a good time for speculation, and some smart, respected people got together and created a model prosecution memo related to the Trump classified documents.
(*Friday was when I wrote this, then pulled it.)
I believe they had released this quite some time ago, but apparently it has been updated.
2. A stronger statement in this 2d edition:
"The authors have decades of experience as federal prosecutors and defense lawyers, as well as other legal expertise. Based upon this experience and the analysis that follows, we conclude that Trump should–and likely will–be charged."
— Ryan Goodman (@rgoodlaw) June 2, 2023
4. "The DOJ precedent indicates that to decline to bring a case against Trump would be treating Trump far more favorably than other defendants, which would be antithetical to the rule of law and the principles of the Justice Manual."
— Ryan Goodman (@rgoodlaw) June 2, 2023
I’ll be interested in what some of our attorneys think about this. And what everyone else has to say, of course!
Model Prosecution Memo for Trump Classified Documents
June 2, 2023
I know a lot of these names, but not all of them.
Open thread.
Update: I just saw that the esteemed Tom Levenson is composing a post in the back room, so I pulled this and will put it up later!
I Would Like To Report A Disobedient Dog
WaterGirl
Alison Rose
I have no legal expertise and it’s also very long but I’ll just send up a lil’ prayer that this will be a life-imitates-art situation.
Omnes Omnibus
I read the executive summary. I have a couple of options this afternoon, read a 186 page legal hypothetical or go for a bike ride. I will not be paid for either. I think I shall go check my tire pressure.
That said, it looks like an impressive piece of work. Speculation, but not irresponsible speculation.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: I would pay 10 bucks for you to read it! I have a feeling, though, that you will not find that compelling.
It’s too fucking hot here to ride a bike. 93 degrees today. Ugh.
JoyceH
I know the focus is on indicting Trump, but personally, I hope all involved prosecutors spread their nets far and wide. People like Trump could never get as far as they do without a large group of minions willing to break the law for the boss, and certain they will get away with it. Particularly galling is the dozens of Republican party officials in half a dozen states who all gathered together in solemn conclave to swear and sign their names to the swearing that their guy won that state’s election, when they HAD to have know that what they were swearing to was false.
Anonymous At Work
Not qualified enough to render a valid opinion. That said, more than a little leans on TFG or his attorneys “have publicly stated X but never in a court of law.” TFG’s defenses are weak, thin, non-existent and/or fatally conflicting in a lot of ways if you had to raise them before a judge. Most judges will rip them to shreds and most judges will grant deference to decisions made by TFG up until noon on January 20, 2021.
So, there’s a lot of ways this can play out but the charging memo is focused on “controversy isn’t enough” and “social media statements aren’t evidence submitted before a court”.
Bex
Open thread, so remember “It was the third of June…another sleepy, dusty Delta day.”
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: Ten bucks?! Ha! It is 88 here, but needs must. And I fucked around all morning when it was cooler. No, I can’t wait until this evening. I was bad and and am getting what I deserve.
Cacti
Trump won’t be charged at the federal level, nor will anyone who set the mob on the Capitol, because Merrick Garland doesn’t want them to be.
Criminal justice is for little people. Charging members of the political class wouldn’t be gentlemanly.
Now Omnes will tut tut me and give a soliloquy about res gestae or something.
WaterGirl
@JoyceH: Yeah, I want to see all elected officials who supported the fake electors have proceedings against them. They were the “white collar” part of the insurrection.
Omnes Omnibus
@Cacti: Nah, I’ll just tell you to blow a goat if you can find one who consents.
piratedan
@JoyceH: same feeling here, yes we all understand that “technically” Trump was driving the bus… it matters as to who owned the bus, gave him the keys, planned the route, bought the gas and all of the assorted passengers who got on, because they were all responsible when they ran over Democracy and crossed the double yellow line to do it.
WaterGirl
@Cacti:
What world are you living in, that you can say that?
Alison Rose
@Omnes Omnibus: I LOL’d
Omnes Omnibus
@Alison Rose: Consent is important.
different-church-lady
You seem to be having a lot of problems with Friday this week.
Baud
@different-church-lady:
I thought Friday went out of business.
laura
@Cacti: Trump won’t be charged at the federal level, nor will anyone who set the mob on the Capitol, because Merrick Garland doesn’t want them to be.
Well that’s certainly a hot take. Fact free, ignores all evidence to the contrary, and probably chubbed you while posting, but it’s a take. Maybe not pie worthy, but definitely worth putting out the safety cones and calls for a clean up on aisle this fucking guy.
NotMax
@Baud
Saturday tuneage.
;)
zhena gogolia
@laura: lol
Joseph Patrick Lurker
@WaterGirl:
I’m familiar with all of these folks and have enormous respect for their collective legal expertise. However, I don’t see the point in reading this document because Garland and Willis have taken too damn long to get their ducks in a row.
At this late date, the calendar greatly favors Trump. It’s unrealistic to expect an indictment to be brought within a few months of the Iowa Caucuses. We simply have to make sure that Biden wins in order to prevent Trump from being able to pardon himself.
WaterGirl
@different-church-lady: hahaha
In all fairness, it was at least Friday this time when I wrote Friday.
Progress?
Manyakitty
@Alison Rose: amen
Cameron
Sounds like there’s an awful lot of evidence for a large number of prosecutions. Provided that the jury/juries isn’t/aren’t crawling with MAGAts, I think the swinish oaf is toast.
Manyakitty
@NotMax: I was sure it would be this one https://youtu.be/dnqxbdnzlhw
E&C’s Dad
I’m a lawyer. My opinion of that document is that is is incredibly wasteful for nine people, all apparently attorneys, to write a 186 page “model” prosecution memorandum. Each of these people could be charging $500 an hour for actual legal work. The work they produced will benefit no one. They should find a better way to spend their time.
Another Scott
IANAL.
His criming was so blatant and obvious and willful and defiant that of course they’re going to charge him. As surely as the Sun will come up tomorrow. They have no choice based on the law and previous incidents. Martin was sentenced to 9 years in prison (+3 years supervised release) in a plea agreement.
The only way TFG gets out of this is if he’s dead.
The only mystery, in my view, is whether he’ll accept a plea deal to minimize his time in prison. He’s so stubborn and delusional that he’ll probably think that he can sway a jury for an acquittal, but that’s a foolish bet IMHO. Juries take national security stuff very seriously.
We’ll see!
Cheers,
Scott.
NobodySpecial
@Joseph Patrick Lurker: I’m simply cynical because Nixon was pardoned not long before I was born and I’ve gone through six or seven GOP events that have had prosecution written all over them and no one ever ever ever goes to jail or even gets their hair mussed.
I know everyone is jumping on Cacti for prior history, but Republicans are very good at skating on illegal shit they do.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Another Scott: I believe he’ll be prosecuted. I’m eager to see it, but I figure I’ll have to wait a year or so
ETA: I just hope I live long enough and am still coherent enough to enjoy it.
Manyakitty
@Another Scott: I heard that it’s unlikely he’s going to actual prison, what with his secret service detail and all (although I think they deserve it as much as he does). The same analyses end up with him serving time under house arrest or something similar.
I wanna see that mofo frog marched down 5th Avenue, with people throwing rotten vegetables and honeypots (lololol) on him as he passes by.
JoyceH
Of course he’s going to be charged. DOJ really has no other choice by now. I’m wondering about conditions of release. They can’t just turn him loose with a promise to return for trial, and allow him to barnstorm around the country shooting off his mouth. He’s not just a flight risk – he’s rich, owns his own plane and properties overseas, is friends with powerful foreigners who would not extradite, and is looking at a lengthy prison sentence just based on the guidelines – but he’s also a threat to national security. However fragmented his mental processes seem to be, he’s seen and heard a lot of highly sensitive information for four years and some of it is bound to still be rattling around in that mush of a brain. They’re going to have to keep him in some sort of house arrest, with strict monitoring of communications and visitors. No heading up to the penthouse at Trump Tower and closing the door, someone’s got to BE there, monitoring the phones, the computers, and all conversations that aren’t with his defense team.
And trial? Will he have to attend? I’d think he would, for a criminal trial – he skipped the E Jean Carroll trial but that was civil. And – are federal cases televised? Remembering the wall to wall coverage of the OJ trial…
jonas
IANAL, but based on just public information, to say nothing of the testimony/evidence Smith has gathered that we don’t even know about, I don’t see how he cannot be indicted. You can’t willfully steal and then hide, and then potentially expose, top secret government documents and expect no consequences. The more likely scenario imho is that he’s charged and convicted, but stays out of prison on appeal until either SCOTUS overturns the conviction (following the well-established legal principle of IOKIYAR) or the next Republican president just pardons him. If he’s still alive at that point.
raven
@Omnes Omnibus: Last time I was in Madison the local news channel showed them frying eggs on the pavement. The conference was traditionally held at the continuing ed center but it was under renovation so they bussed us in (un-air conditioned school busses) and it took about 30 minutes to get to campus. It was a serious disappointment!
raven
@Cacti: How about “hey asshole, where ya been”?
moops
What about the crime of knowing Trump had stolen top secret documents and not telling anyone?
What about the crime of helping him hide his classified documents?
What about the crime of handing Trump classified documents and not getting them back from him like you are supposed to?
What about the crime of watching Trump eat/flush/shred official White House communication and not stopping his violation of the records act?
and on and on and on….
Omnes Omnibus
@raven: When was that?
Urza
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/03/us/politics/trump-lawyers-classified-documents-corcoran.html
”
Turning on his iPhone one day last year, the lawyer M. Evan Corcoran recorded his reflections about a high-profile new job: representing former President Donald J. Trump in an investigation into his handling of classified documents.
In complete sentences and a narrative tone that sounded as if it had been ripped from a novel, Mr. Corcoran recounted in detail a nearly monthlong period of the documents investigation, according to two people familiar with the matter.
Mr. Corcoran’s narration of his recollections covered his initial meeting with Mr. Trump in May last year to discuss a subpoena from the Justice Department seeking the return of all classified materials in the former president’s possession, the people said.”
bbleh
I’ll go with (1) of course he’s going to be charged, including with some very serious offenses; (2) his attorneys will file multiple avalanches of motions intended to delay for one reason or another, and enough of them will succeed that nothing will go to trial before the election; and (3) throughout, he will make a great deal of political hay (not to mention money) out of the prosecutions.
All that said, I don’t see any alternative but to let the wheels grind. The courts have been remarkably resilient to the bad faith and endless drama-queening of the MAGA movement, from “election fraud” to Jan. 6, so I am not unhopeful that the system will prevail absent wholesale authoritarian takeover.
It is apropos that last point, btw, that the actions of Biden and the WH team during the debt-ceiling circus were SO skillful. Even absent actual default, there were many opportunities for the situation to devolve into a financial crisis and resulting recession, which would have greatly — perhaps even dispositively — boosted TFG’s chances in ’24, and I don’t know whether even a global economic crash would have been worse than that.
Manyakitty
@Urza: well. That seems like a thing.
prostratedragon
@Bex: The Mississippi side of the family loved that song.
Soprano2
@Cacti: Elizabeth Holmes is in prison, and she certainly isn’t “little people”.
schrodingers_cat
Another “resistance” account turns out to be a grifter.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@schrodingers_cat: that is really surprising to me
Burnspbesq
@Cacti:
I can remember a time when you weren’t clueless and fucking full of shit
David 🌈 ☘The Establishment☘🌈 Koch
@Baud: Fridays don’t want to work anymore.
bbleh
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: what would be surprising is one that was on the level.
Burnspbesq
@Joseph Patrick Lurker:
Nope. 70 days max from indictment to jury selection. His lawyers will be handed all the discovery they’re entitled to at the arraignment.
If you’re going to pontificate on legal matters, it helps to know a little law.
schrodingers_cat
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I don’t follow her. But see her quoted here often and also by others on Twitter.
I do remember that there was Nat Sec Twitter account that went silent after the T years that had warned against her and Eric Garland.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@schrodingers_cat: She’s a podcaster, she has one with Pete Strzok and one with Andy McCabe, and her outfit runs a bunch of other ones with… just about every talking head lawyer who appears on MSNBC. Big fish in a medium size pond, I suppose
Sheldon Vogt
@schrodingers_cat: Based on the allegations of “Fraudian-Slip”?
Time for a review of critical reading skills.
UncleEbeneezer
@schrodingers_cat: Who cares? She does good reporting and has great discussion with Peter Strzok, Andy McCabe and other experienced intelligence experts and a good understanding of the law. Her back story really has little/nothing to do with why she’s been successful. I knew she was in the military but that’s about it. It’s just not something most of us have ever cared about.
Also the source of that thread is listed as a “PARODY” account on the right hand side of their Twitter page.
RaflW
@JoyceH: I think he’ll leave the country before things reach the point that prosecutors can pull his passport, but after it’s become too obvious for even he to deny the hammer is gonna fall.
And I suspect that, while of course he can cause damage from foreign sidelines, Biden & DOJ may decide to jet let him go (but should absolutely, positively cancel his passport and make him stateless. He can convince some non-extradition country to give him some sort of residency status, I’m sure. Pooty-poot is apparently accepting ‘defectors’).
Letting him go and then charging him with high crimes and cancelling his right to travel solves lots of headaches about holding a trial, timing it vs. the Iowa caucus, etc. And in some ways, as long as Trump is raving ineffectually from some gilded cage in Saudi Arabia or St. Petersburg or whatever, Democrats can run against the GOP as “the party of Trump” because he’ll still claim the mantle of king in absentia.
(I know the above is marginally realistic, but IMO a decent compromise solution.)