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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 467: The Cost Part I’ve Lost Count

War for Ukraine Day 467: The Cost Part I’ve Lost Count

by Adam L Silverman|  June 5, 20238:05 pm| 61 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

The cost:

When 21 year old Ostap Onistrat joined the Ukrainian army to defend his country, his father Andriy, a well-known Ukrainian banker, had no second thoughts: he had to be there on the battlefield with his son. He wanted to protect him, to shield his heroic boy from the brutalities… pic.twitter.com/aHncGx94UJ

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 5, 2023

Here’s the full text of the MOD’s tweet:

When 21 year old Ostap Onistrat joined the Ukrainian army to defend his country, his father Andriy, a well-known Ukrainian banker, had no second thoughts: he had to be there on the battlefield with his son. He wanted to protect him, to shield his heroic boy from the brutalities of the war… Two days ago Ostap’s life was cut short by enemy shrapnel. Another Ukrainian father has lost his son. Ukraine has lost her son. The loss is irreparable. Victory is inevitable. We all owe it to Ostap.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump. Just a heads up, they’ve overdubbed the video in English.

The enemy knows that Ukraine will win – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

5 June 2023 – 21:55

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

A report on the day.

First of all, I am grateful to each of our warriors, to all our defenders who gave us the news we expect. Bakhmut direction – well done, warriors!

We see how hysterically Russia perceives every step we take there, every position we take.

The enemy knows that Ukraine will win. They see it. They feel it thanks to your strikes, soldiers, and in particular in Donetsk region. Thank you for that!

Today, I would like to particularly celebrate several combat units of ours. These are the 5th separate assault brigade and the 57th separate motorized infantry brigade, which skillfully, decisively and efficiently defend our positions, destroying the occupiers and, most importantly, moving forward.

Thank you, warriors! Thank you all!

Second, we continue our work on sanctions against Russia.

Although the global trend is clear – Russia will lose this war, Russia’s rulers continue to deny reality. They continue to try to deceive the world, to circumvent sanctions, to produce more weapons, to ensure more resources and people are spent on this aggression.

We are preparing our steps, new steps to further limit Russia’s military potential. Everyone in the world who helps the terrorist state circumvent sanctions in one way or another, everyone in the world whom Russia uses for the supply of weapons, components, equipment – each such entity must feel the full force of the free world.

And we will ensure this.

It is a common task of the world to stop terror. And the main prerequisite for fulfilling this task is to stop any ways in which terrorists are still trying to get something for themselves.

More news to come soon.

Third. Today I held a long and very informative meeting on the transformation of our country and our lives – now and after the victory.

Objectively, there are fundamental security, economic, energy, technological, and simply human issues that require full and effective answers.

These answers will determine what Ukraine will be like and what life will be like for Ukrainian children when they become adults and inherit the state from the current generations.

A strong state, a free state, a modern state, a state pleasant to live in.

We are laying the foundation for this now. Everyone who fights for Ukraine. Everyone who works for Ukraine. Everyone who helps.

For example, today the government, the Office, and the National Security and Defense Council discussed the energy sector and agricultural production in a broad sense. Not only restoring what Ukraine had, but developing and expanding it, taking into account Ukraine’s global role for the food and energy security of Europe and the world.

We will present all these details. It will be thorough. In particular, we will present them at the London International Conference on the Reconstruction of Ukraine, which will take place this month.

And, of course, we do not stop our international work with partners for a single day.

Today the British Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs was in Kyiv. A good meeting, useful negotiations and a new strengthening of our countries and our security.

I thanked for all the defense support provided to Ukraine, and especially for the Storm Shadow missiles, which have proven to be extremely effective on the frontline. We continued the conversation about a new coalition to protect life – the Patriot Coalition. Step by step, we are moving with our partners to make this coalition as effective in protecting life and freedom as all our other defense coalitions that have already been established.

We also talked with Mr. Secretary of State about preparations for the NATO Summit in Vilnius. The Summit must be meaningful. Then it will become historic.

Thank you to everyone who helps Ukraine! Thank you to everyone who is bringing the defeat of Russian terror closer!

Glory to our warriors! 

Glory to all our heroes!

Glory to Ukraine!

Don’t forget:

Shhhhhh

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 5, 2023

Release the Hornets! From The Australian Financial Review:

Australia, the US and Ukraine are discussing sending 41 Royal Australian Air Force F/A-18 Hornets to Kyiv helping fulfil part of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s request for fighter jets, rather than sending them to the scrapheap as planned.

Sources have told The Australian Financial Review that the US, which recently gave permission to other Western allies to supply Ukraine with advanced fighter jets, including US-made F-16s, is favourably disposed to the idea of gifting Ukraine the F/A-18s.

Washington’s approval is needed because it owns the intellectual property on the jets that have been retired by the RAAF and which are being replaced by F-35s, of which Australia has ordered 72.

The retired F/A-18s are sitting in a hangar at the Williamtown RAAF base outside Newcastle and unless sent to Ukraine, will either be scrapped or sold to a private sector aviation company, RAVN Aerospace, to use in the US as “enemies” for military aviators to train against

Robert Potter, an Australian security expert advising the Ukrainian government, confirmed negotiations were underway, but a specific deal is yet to be finalised.

“However, the United States and Ukraine have an active and specific interest in the acquisition of fourth generation fighters for the Ukrainian Air Force,” he said.

“Australia operates a large stockpile of retired planes which are otherwise scheduled for destruction.

“There are multiple formal approvals required to conclude a procurement of these planes, but it is likely an idea whose time has come.”

A separate source close to the discussions agreed it made no sense to destroy perfectly good aircraft that he said could be operational within four months and used to help repel the Russian invasion.

While a handful of planes would only be good for cannibalising parts, the vast bulk would take little work to be brought up to flying condition and have a couple of years left on their airframes. The Australian Hornets are in good shape because they didn’t operate at sea.

Ukrainian pilots and ground crew could be quickly brought up to speed to operate the Hornets with Ukrainian language training manuals to be produced.

And with an influx of western fighters to help Ukraine, that would include ex-Hornet pilots.

Defence Minister Richard Marles, who met his Ukrainian counterpart on the sidelines of the weekend’s Shangri-La defence summit in Singapore, declined to comment, but his office pointed instead to comments he made at the weekend about Australia’s next contribution to the war effort.

“There are specific requests that Ukraine has made of us, I am not going to go into the details of those, but we are working through them with the government of Ukraine,” he said.

”Being there for as long as it takes means that we will have another iteration of support for Ukraine, that won’t be long before we announce that, obviously, we’re in conversation with Ukraine about how we can best contribute, as we are in a conversation with both the UK, the US and other allies about the best kind of contribution we could make.

“The starting point here is that we see what’s at issue in the war in Ukraine is really the sanctity of the global rules-based order itself.”

Experts said there are several reasons why the Australian Hornets would help make a difference.

First, the Hornets would play an important role in defending Ukrainian civilians. Western air defence systems such as Patriot missiles are doing an effective job stopping the worst of Russia’s nightly bombardments of major cities, but there are still gaps, with less built-up areas lacking those systems.

Hornets flying around could be used to intercept and shoot down enemy missiles.

With their twin engines, the Hornets have a much greater chance of survivability if they were damaged. A pilot can land on one engine, and Ukraine cannot afford to lose pilots. And the Hornets are better suited than other fourth-gen jets to the rougher airfields of Ukraine.

Australia going first with an initial delivery of fighter jets would give the Americans (and other nations) cover to provide hundreds from its own fleet of F/A-18s.

It could also be a bad look for Australia if it were not prepared to give up ageing planes at the same time the Americans are preparing to share the crown jewels of their military, nuclear-powered submarines with Australia when the US doesn’t really have them to spare.

To prevent the risk of escalation, Australians (and the Americans) could make clear that the Hornets could only fly within Ukrainian airspace, warning if they were used to bomb Russia, the allies would stop maintaining the aircraft, effectively grounding them.

More at the link!

Bakhmut:

By the way, I’m still waiting to see what is the effect of Russia’s grand, strategic, definitive victory at Bakhmut, for the sake of which it spent A YEAR throwing waves of convicts and mercenaries at what was left of the city.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 5, 2023

Bakhmut adjacent:

PMC Wagner detained and interrogated no other but the commander of the 72nd Brigade, Roman Venevitin. Wagner and the 72nd Brigade shared positions in Bakhmut.

They detained the man, beat him, broke his nose, and forced to record a video admitting to firing at a car of PMC… pic.twitter.com/BY3PhEV60q

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) June 4, 2023

First tweet from from Tatarigami’s thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App.

🧵Thread:

The news of the arrest of the senior officer, who serves as the commander of the russian 72nd brigade, by Wagner, took many by surprise. However, this situation has been unfolding for some time now, as I mentioned in a thread over a month ago.https://t.co/jmBoMshPxc pic.twitter.com/fcBJ9rB6Ah

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) June 4, 2023

2/ Although some people dismissed the information I previously provided as propaganda or lacking evidence, the ongoing power dynamics and events serve as evidence. Let’s closely examine the situation 
3/ While many soldiers in the Ministry of Defense either respect or would like to join Wagner, mostly due to higher payments, which are typically disbursed more reliably than those from the MoD, the sentiment among Russian senior officers is quite the opposite. 
4/ On average, Wagner tends to view officers from the Ministry of Defense (MoD) as inefficient bureaucrats who waste paper and fail to effectively carry out missions. Conversely, senior Russian MoD officers generally regard Wagner as an unreliable and uncontrollable private gang. 
5/ This latest incident between the MoD and Wagner is not the first known incident of its kind. While previous conflicts, primarily resulting from friendly fire between the MoD and Wagner, have been resolved in the past, the situation continues to worsen 
6/ The conflict between the 72nd brigade and Wagner dates back to when the Ukrainian 3rd assault brigade successfully pushed the 72nd brigade from positions that were previously under Wagner’s control. 
7/ Wagner’s ability to administer justice and deploy its own police force in occupied territories, undermines the state’s monopoly on violence. While some assume the state has full control over Wagner’s activities, we can observe a more complex power dynamic. 
8/ Evgeniy Prigozhin does not operate as an isolated individual in this power dynamics and enjoys significant support from certain circles within the Kremlin. Situation is unlikely to improve in the near future and will continue to escalate as central power looks weaker 

The Liberty of Russia Legion/Legion Svoboda has thoughts:

Liberty of Russia legion offers Prigozhin to exchange Russian pows for Lt Colonel Venevitin, commander of the 72nd Brigade, captured by Wagner yesterday. Unclear why Prigozhin would have any interest in this, it's very likely a PR move to attract attention. pic.twitter.com/GPCsu7Cm4O

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) June 5, 2023

Russia:

A deep fake Putin announcing mass mobilisation in Russia may be one part of what seems to be a hacking attack coinciding with Ukrainian counter-offensives in the east & south today. TVs in Crimea were reportedly broadcasting Ukrainian propaganda yesterday pic.twitter.com/Bm01RtZgrw

— Matthew Luxmoore (@mjluxmoore) June 5, 2023

Russia has the advantage in manpower and equipment. But Ukraine has outwitted it from the outset in terms of tactics. No actual confirmation these deep fakes are Ukraine’s work, of course.

— Matthew Luxmoore (@mjluxmoore) June 5, 2023

This is sauce for the goose. Part of how Putin was able to come to and consolidate power was by orchestrating a disinformation campaign against the prosecutorial investigator who had him in his sights. The heart of that campaign was doctored imagery of the prosecutor with prostitutes.

And Russia has a rich tradition of political blackmail. The Russians even have a word for it: компромат (kompromat, a contraction of the phrase “compromising materials”). One of the more famous incidents in recent Russian history involved Yury Skuratov, the country’s top prosecutor. In April 1999, Russian state television broadcast footage of a man resembling Skuratov in a three-way romp with a couple of prostitutes; the incident cut short the career of Skuratov, who had been investigating high-level corruption inside the Kremlin.

The head of the FSB, the successor to the KGB, held a press conference claiming that the man caught on tape was indeed Skuratov. The FSB chief at the time? None other than former President (and current Prime Minister) Vladimir Putin.

Belgorod Oblast, Russia:

Governor of Belgorod Gladkov confirms Russia doesn’t control Tavolzhanka. Is there anything at the moment that Russia still firmly controls? pic.twitter.com/kyxRPbz01K

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) June 5, 2023

And speaking of what is going on in Russia, CNN brings us a deep dive on Ukrainian Unconventional Warfare.

WashingtonCNN — 

Ukraine has cultivated a network of agents and sympathizers inside Russia working to carry out acts of sabotage against Russian targets and has begun providing them with drones to stage attacks, multiple people familiar with US intelligence on the matter told CNN.

US officials believe these pro-Ukrainian agents inside Russia carried out a drone attack that targeted the Kremlin in early May by launching drones from within Russia rather than flying them from Ukraine into Moscow.

It is not clear whether other drone attacks carried out in recent days – including one targeting a residential neighborhood near Moscow and another strike on oil refineries in southern Russia – were also launched from inside Russia or conducted by this network of pro-Ukrainian operatives.

But US officials believe that Ukraine has developed sabotage cells inside Russia made up of a mix of pro-Ukrainian sympathizers and operatives well-trained in this kind of warfare. Ukraine is believed to have provided them with Ukrainian-made drones, and two US officials told CNN there is no evidence that any of the drone strikes have been conducted using US-provided drones.

Officials could not say conclusively how Ukraine has managed to get the drones behind enemy lines, but two of the sources told CNN that it has established well-practiced smuggling routes that could be used to send drones or drone components into Russia where they could then be assembled.

A European intelligence official noted that the Russian-Ukrainian border is vast and very difficult to control, making it ripe for smuggling – something the official said the Ukrainians have been doing for the better part of the decade that they’ve been at war with pro-Russian forces.

“You also have to consider that this is a peripheral area of Russia,” the official said. “Survival is everyone’s problem, so cash works wonders.”

Who exactly is controlling these assets is also murky, the sources told CNN, though US officials believe that elements within Ukraine’s intelligence community are involved. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has set general parameters for what his intelligence and security services are allowed to do, two of the sources said, but not every operation requires his sign-off.

Asked for comment, a spokesperson for the head of the Ukrainian Security Service suggested to CNN that the mysterious explosions and drone strikes inside Russia would continue.

“We will comment on instances of ‘cotton’ only after our victory,” he said. Quoting the head of the Security Service, Vasyl Malyuk, the spokesperson added that regardless, “‘cotton’ has been burning, is burning, and will continue burning.”

“Cotton” is a slang-word that Ukrainians use to mean explosions, usually in Russia or Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine. Its origins date back to the early weeks of the war and stem from the fact that the Russian word for a “pop” is very similar to the Ukrainian word for cotton.

There has been a steady drumbeat of mysterious fires and explosions inside Russia over the last year, targeting oil and fuel depots, railways, military enlistment offices, warehouses and pipelines. But officials have noticed an uptick in these attacks on Russian soil in recent weeks, beginning with the attack on the Kremlin building. It appears to be “a culmination of months of effort” by the Ukrainians to set up the infrastructure for such sabotage, said one of the sources familiar with the intelligence.

“There has been for months now a pretty consistent push by some in Ukraine to be more aggressive,” this person said, speaking anonymously because of the sensitivity of US intelligence. “And there has certainly been some willingness at senior levels. The challenge has always been their ability to do it.

Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, has consistently proposed some of the most brazen plans for operations against Russia and values symbolic acts, US officials told CNN.

“All I will comment on is that we’ve been killing Russians,” Budanov told Yahoo News last month when asked about the car bomb attack that killed the daughter of a prominent Russian political figure in Moscow’s suburbs last year. The US intelligence community assessed that that operation was authorized by elements within the Ukrainian government.

“And we will keep killing Russians anywhere on the face of this world until the complete victory of Ukraine,” Budanov added.

Much more at the link!

That’s enough for tonight.

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Reader Interactions

61Comments

  1. 1.

    Another Scott

    June 5, 2023 at 8:10 pm

    Imagine the Russian grunts reaction when they see an entire traditional Ukrainian village house start driving across a field outside Bakhmut. pic.twitter.com/GmJI4QB1CQ

    — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 5, 2023

    Even Ukrainian homes are mobilizing!

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  2. 2.

    Adam L Silverman

    June 5, 2023 at 8:22 pm

    @Another Scott: Suburban camouflage.

  3. 3.

    Alison Rose

    June 5, 2023 at 8:37 pm

    Whether it’s real putin (and I use the word “real” there loosely) or deep-fake putin, they all suck, but if the latter makes the former even a little bit mad, then deep-fake away, boys.

    Guns N’ Roses are apparently on a world tour and did a pro-Ukraine song! I was sort of involuntarily a fan of theirs since one of my brothers loved them when we were teens so I heard their music constantly and ended up liking some of it. I like seeing any musicians support Ukraine, of course, but it feels really good when it comes from areas like metal or country or something where you might expect a higher rate of right-leaning fans.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  4. 4.

    ETtheLibrarian

    June 5, 2023 at 8:49 pm

    Couple of thoughts

    1. I can’t help but feel that whatever the outcome, Russia is going to regret giving Wagner and all the other private military groups so much power. Hard to put the cap back on that. They will pay some price for that. Would love to know Adam’s thoughts.

    2. It is sort of delicious that the disinformation tables have been turned on Putin. As you reap, so shall you sow or hoisted by your own petard.

    4. I assume there a not insignificant number of sympathizers or just plain troublemakers in Russia that would be happy to mess with the State; for whatever reason.

  5. 5.

    Mallard Filmore

    June 5, 2023 at 8:52 pm

    Shhhhhh
    — Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 5, 2023

    The pro-Ukraine bloggers[*] are  honoring this request but stilll passing along information.  They now talk about reports from Russian war bloggers and the towns lost or under attack.

    [*] channel:  “Reporting from Ukraine”
    [*] channel:  “Ukraine Matters“

  6. 6.

    Kyle Rayner

    June 5, 2023 at 9:09 pm

    Ostap Onistrat’s story really tugs at the heartstrings. :( So many personal tragedies threaded through the one big one.

    That use of deep fake is brilliant. The mention of Putin coming to power reminded me – yesterday learned that the government leaned on NTV before Putin even became president for the political satire show Kukly (Puppets) to never use his image again, unlike then-president Yeltsin, whose likeness apparently continued being used. (The entire show of course eventually was forced to be shut down in 2002. Putin’s had his teeth in the media for a long time.) I’d be interested in reading a book someday about the murky turnabout of that entire period.

    Thanks for your posts!

  7. 7.

    BeautifulPlumage

    June 5, 2023 at 9:10 pm

    Hi Adam, thank you for this series.

    Considering the Aussie hornets – if the training & supply/repair networks for F-16s* was so unworkable until now, what makes these planes any easier to integrate with Ukraine’s MOD? Are they similar to other UKR aircraft?

    *not sure I have the correct model…whatever we just said other countries can supply to UKR

  8. 8.

    laura

    June 5, 2023 at 9:10 pm

    @Alison Rose: the band is playing Tel Aviv today. Chrissie Hynde is the opening support artist. 💙 They don’t cotton to authoritarians.

  9. 9.

    Jay

    June 5, 2023 at 9:15 pm

    The testimony of this Russian soldier in reference to the events at the Belgorod/Bilhorod border is literally telling. 80% losses and climbing. The regime in Moscow sends frightened conscripts led by incompetent commanders into battle and certain death. pic.twitter.com/h54kpK2vkZ— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) June 5, 2023

  10. 10.

    Jay

    June 5, 2023 at 9:20 pm

    @BeautifulPlumage:

    nope, but they are more capable, a more suitable, (better for rough field operations), and apparently, there is a waiting list of pilots willing to fly them for Ukraine.

    Plus, their condition is misrepresented. The Ozzies upgraded them, then vacume packed them. Canada was looking at buying them a couple of years ago.

  11. 11.

    Bill Arnold

    June 5, 2023 at 9:23 pm

    The Australian Financial Review has pushed the Hornets previously; this older piece is from March 1, 2023.
    Australia has 40 FA-18s, we should give them to Ukraine (Aaron Patrick, Mar 1, 2023)

  12. 12.

    Jay

    June 5, 2023 at 9:23 pm

    A lot of fires south of Shebekino. It is now 5 days since Russian rebels have crossed the border at this sector and despite the Moscow regime flattening the whole area, they still haven't dislodged those few rifle squads. From "3 days to Kyiv" to "5 days and still no Novaya… pic.twitter.com/WSTzVeQHuv— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) June 4, 2023

  13. 13.

    Bill Arnold

    June 5, 2023 at 9:25 pm

    On average, Wagner tends to view officers from the Ministry of Defense (MoD) as inefficient bureaucrats who waste paper and fail to effectively carry out missions. Conversely, senior Russian MoD officers generally regard Wagner as an unreliable and uncontrollable private gang.

    They are both correct.

  14. 14.

    Sebastian

    June 5, 2023 at 9:38 pm

    Thank you for the update, Adam. I missed the CNN article.

     

    I was waiting for some movement on the F-15. I believe I remember a much larger number, though. Could this exclude the F-15 already bought by the private contractor but without export permission yet? Also, weren’t they intended as punching bags in air fight practice?

  15. 15.

    Sebastian

    June 5, 2023 at 9:43 pm

    I should have done some research frist. Looks like Australia only got a total of 75 F-15

    Year F/A-18A F/A-18B Total
    1985 1  7  8
    1986 12  0  12
    1987 7  7  14
    1988 21  4  25
    1989 12  0  12
    1990 4   0   4
    Total 57  18  75

  16. 16.

    lee

    June 5, 2023 at 9:44 pm

    Had an interesting conversation with my boss’s boss.  His description of the situation is ‘A complete shitshow’

    When the reinvasion started we had some contract developers in Russia. They all literally dissappeared at the same time. Folks were worried. They then started to appear all over Europe. We have no idea if we should / could rehire them.

  17. 17.

    Sebastian

    June 5, 2023 at 9:46 pm

    @lee:

    Rehire them in their new locations? Probably not the worst of ideas: they know how to do the work, they are relatively cheap compared to the local workforce, and it appears they have some sort of brains and situational awareness. He could do worse tbh

  18. 18.

    Chetan Murthy

    June 5, 2023 at 9:50 pm

    @Sebastian: From a purely big-picture “grand strategy” point of view, making life better for emigre I/T talent to stay *outside Russia* would seem to be an excellent way to put a shiv between Pootie-Poot’s ribs.  The sharper the better.

  19. 19.

    BeautifulPlumage

    June 5, 2023 at 9:56 pm

    @Jay: thanks for the info.

  20. 20.

    Sebastian

    June 5, 2023 at 10:05 pm

    @Chetan Murthy:

    Agree.

    The only problem is that Russians outside of Russia don’t change their attitude re the Greatness of Russia.

  21. 21.

    Sebastian

    June 5, 2023 at 10:05 pm

    Twitter embed seems to be broken. Thomas C. Theiner has an interesting thread about Vuhledar.

  22. 22.

    Andrya

    June 5, 2023 at 10:13 pm

    @Sebastian: I take your point, but I don’t think it matters.  I don’t even think it matters if all the refusniks are despicable genocidal Ukraine haters whose only reason for self-exile is cowardice.  To me, the only thing that matters is that every russian young man who flees the country is a potential soldier that putin will never mobilize.

    Plus, as Abraham Lincoln said, “you cannot fool all of the people all of the time”.  Eventually, it’s going to dawn on low income young men, and men of Central Asia ethnicity, that they are bearing the burden of war, while young male middle class ethnic russians have skedaddled to IT jobs in western Europe.  Hopefully, that will also throw a wrench in putin’s war machine.

  23. 23.

    TheMightyTrowel

    June 5, 2023 at 10:21 pm

    @Another Scott: Baba Yaga!

  24. 24.

    David Anderson

    June 5, 2023 at 10:42 pm

    Looks like the dam on the Dnipro north of Kherson was blown by the Russians

  25. 25.

    Chetan Murthy

    June 5, 2023 at 10:47 pm

    @Andrya:

    I don’t even think it matters if all the refusniks are despicable genocidal Ukraine haters whose only reason for self-exile is cowardice.

    As long as they don’t return to Russia, as long as they deprive Russia of their skills and hard work, it’s a win for the West.  Sure, not as much of a win as it’d be if they would also become, y’know, anti-imperialist liberal democrats, but hey, still a win.

  26. 26.

    Mallard Filmore

    June 5, 2023 at 10:55 pm

    @David Anderson:

    Looks like the dam on the Dnipro north of Kherson was blown by the Russians

    Isn’t that bad for the cooling required by the NPP?

  27. 27.

    Manyakitty

    June 5, 2023 at 10:56 pm

    @David Anderson: oh no. How bad is the flooding?

  28. 28.

    Manyakitty

    June 5, 2023 at 10:57 pm

    @Mallard Filmore: did you read the interview with the former worker at ZNPP? He said that place is right on the edge.

  29. 29.

    Librarian

    June 5, 2023 at 10:58 pm

    @David Anderson: The Russians are saying the Ukrainians blew it up.

  30. 30.

    Sebastian

    June 5, 2023 at 11:03 pm

    @David Anderson:

    No Panic!

  31. 31.

    Sebastian

    June 5, 2023 at 11:04 pm

    @David Anderson:

     

    The Nova Kakhovka hydro-electric dam on the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine has been blown pic.twitter.com/a6wjTitTxD
    — Saint Javelin (@saintjavelin) June 6, 2023

  32. 32.

    smith

    June 5, 2023 at 11:04 pm

    @Librarian: Weren’t there intelligence reports a couple weeks back that said the Russians were planning to compromise or attack the power plant, and then blame it on the Ukrainians? Could this be their genius plan?

  33. 33.

    Sebastian

    June 5, 2023 at 11:12 pm

    Worst-case scenario model:

     

    What happens next? The worst-case scenario: https://t.co/css3ahgMYK
    — Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) June 6, 2023

  34. 34.

    Roberto el oso

    June 5, 2023 at 11:35 pm

    @Alison Rose: there are most likely a lot more left-leaning metalheads than country musicians … Heavy Metal is truly a land of contrasts :)

  35. 35.

    Sebastian

    June 5, 2023 at 11:51 pm

    @Alison Rose:

    Axel Rose was very vocal about Trump. Kudos.

  36. 36.

    billcinsd

    June 6, 2023 at 12:08 am

    @Mallard Filmore: Yes. Cheryl Rofer has an article about it at LGM

  37. 37.

    Sebastian

    June 6, 2023 at 12:13 am

    Found a great thread about strikes on railway junctions in the past 24 hours:

     

    1. Day three of the invasion of Russia and the insurgents have driven Russian forces from #Shebekino and surrounding settlements, and city the size of #Bakhmut, with a company of troops who now watch Russian artillery destroying Russian towns and a city with Russian artillery. pic.twitter.com/BuH7AljFLw
    — Tim Hogan 浩勤 (@TimInHonolulu) June 4, 2023

  38. 38.

    Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom

    June 6, 2023 at 12:13 am

    According to the Guardian, Russian forces just blew up a dam near Kherson. Wonder what brought that on.

  39. 39.

    Geoduck

    June 6, 2023 at 12:29 am

    @Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom:  Probably attempting to degrade the long-anticipated Ukrainian counter-attack.

  40. 40.

    Carlo Graziani

    June 6, 2023 at 12:46 am

    @Sebastian: It’s on now.

  41. 41.

    Chetan Murthy

    June 6, 2023 at 12:58 am

    @Carlo Graziani: @Sebastian: damn.

  42. 42.

    Kent

    June 6, 2023 at 1:11 am

    @Librarian: The Pentagon seems to have damn good intelligence about Russian actions and movements in Ukraine.  One suspects that the Pentagon knows damn well who blew up the dam.

  43. 43.

    Sebastian

    June 6, 2023 at 1:15 am

    @Carlo Graziani:

    I had a feeling the last two days but I didn’t want to jinx anything but this confirms it: first, make the Russians panic and fall over their own shoes while attempting to move troops quickly to Belgorod. Second, bomb the sh*t out of railroad hubs where all the troops sit, waiting for Russian logistics to unf*ck itself.

  44. 44.

    Jinchi

    June 6, 2023 at 1:24 am

    @Kent: Looking at the satellite maps of the region, it seems like the flooding will occur most prominently on the Southern (Russian occupied) side of the river.

    If the Russians blew it, that would seem to imply that they’ve ceded a large area of occupied territory, although maybe in the hopes that the Ukrainians wouldn’t be able to take control of it and Russian troops could be redeployed to other areas of the conflict.

    Sabotaging the nuclear plant would seem to imply they’re abandoning areas even further to the East.

  45. 45.

    Geoduck

    June 6, 2023 at 1:26 am

    For those willing to visit Twitter links, here’s a vid of (evidently) the dam being blown up.

  46. 46.

    Chetan Murthy

    June 6, 2023 at 1:33 am

    @Geoduck: That vid apparently comes from a BBC article from Nov 2022: https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-63607625

  47. 47.

    Carlo Graziani

    June 6, 2023 at 1:49 am

    @Jinchi: It is my understanding that the dam was also a critical piece of infrastructure for water supply to the Crimean peninsula, which does not have sufficient local water resources for the requirements of its current poulation. If that is true, then there’s a puzzle here: I very much doubt that the Russians are preparing to abandon Crimea, yet they just crippled water infrastructure there. I don’t really have any idea of what the explanation might be.

  48. 48.

    Chetan Murthy

    June 6, 2023 at 1:55 am

    @Carlo Graziani: Carlo, I’m no expert on this (obvs, haha!) but I’ve read that Crimea’s natural freshwater sources are enough for the population; the canal was for agriculture.  And RU topped up all the reservoirs these last 15mos, too.  Last, they went …. what?  8yr without Dnipro water, right?  So surely they can survive without.  For sure, agriculture would suffer, but then again, the real value of Crimea to RU is the port in Sevastopol.  The rest …. well who really cares about a buncha serfs amirite?

  49. 49.

    Geoduck

    June 6, 2023 at 1:58 am

    @Chetan Murthy: Thanks, I was going to come back and say I guess I jumped the gun.

  50. 50.

    Chetan Murthy

    June 6, 2023 at 2:09 am

    @Geoduck: There’s a vid making the rounds from an RU Telegram channel where the guy takes a vid of an underwater explosion at the NK dam in broad daylight.  The dam is clearly already breached, so it looks like demolition activity there might not be finished.  Which …. boy it just gets worser don’t it.

  51. 51.

    Carlo Graziani

    June 6, 2023 at 2:22 am

    @Chetan Murthy: That makes more sense. Thanks.

  52. 52.

    Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom

    June 6, 2023 at 2:28 am

    I should have known the BJ commentariot would  be ahead of curve. 😌 Yeah, dam is blown, terrible for all concerned, especially those living near enough to be in danger of flooding/drowning.  Not great for the NPP either.

    Here’s the thing. Everyone who has read Adam’s excellent updates, & actually paid attention, should have realised that however incompetent the Russian military might be, that doesn’t make them any less dangerous. They are led, if you can call it that, by people who are utterly ruthless, for whom human life has no meaning. Not even Russian lives matter to them, let alone Ukrainians. That means literally any possibility is open to them. Short of anything nuclear, I devoutly hope. Which is exactly what we have here. This is an enormous monkey wrench thrown into whatever plans the AUF might have.

    All that said, I don’t think that anyone in charge is going to take a vast Russian war crime without reacting in some way. Which is to say, the Crimean water supply & the Kerch Bridge are now on borrowed time, even less time than they already had.

    Thank you as always Adam. I usually lurk instead of comment, but I’m always, always grateful for your invaluable expertise.😌

  53. 53.

    Adam L Silverman

    June 6, 2023 at 5:44 am

    @Chetan Murthy: Link?

  54. 54.

    oldster

    June 6, 2023 at 6:21 am

    They blew the dam because they know that they have lost it all — including Crimea — and their only thought is to spoil what they cannot have.

    Horrible people. Make them pay, for a generation. Make them pay, until Ukraine is whole again. Every dollar earned by ruzzian oil or ruzzian gas should go to the reconstruction of Ukraine.

    My only consolation is that Zaluzhny and Miley and Stoltenberg are clear-eyed people who knew that this would happen. They made their plans accordingly. They know what comes next. The ruzzians will find out.

  55. 55.

    Manyakitty

    June 6, 2023 at 6:26 am

    @oldster: oh yes. This needs to be the start of several generations of Russia ‘finding out.’

  56. 56.

    lee

    June 6, 2023 at 8:06 am

    Regarding the dam: IIRC there were several articles early in the reinvasion about that dam and the idea that Russia would blow it once they realized they had lost or were about to lose.

  57. 57.

    Maxim

    June 6, 2023 at 8:33 am

    This link / thread claims to have a timeline of the attack, but I don’t have any idea if the source is trustworthy.

    https://twitter.com/VolodyaTretyak/status/1666015265971118082

  58. 58.

    Bill Arnold

    June 6, 2023 at 10:56 am

    Some Russians think we are in the Fallout timeline, it appears. The original (untranslated) image is in the replies, along with explanations of a few of the translations. (e.g. “info gypsies”)

    A Russian channel posted a saboteur identification guide (meaning real life saboteurs.) Not sure why they’re using Vault boy graphics.

    Anyway, tag yourself.

    I’m Migrant from Central Asia. pic.twitter.com/tl73C5q7KU
    — Warlockracy🌻 (@warlockracy) June 5, 2023

    It’s a Fascist level of othering of subpopulations.

  59. 59.

    Chetan Murthy

    June 6, 2023 at 11:43 am

    @Adam L Silverman:

    https://nitter.net/viki_bamboni/status/1665984907003174915#m

    Here’s a link to the vid I found this AM.  Last night, comments were that it seemed like the explosion was part of ongoing demolition, but as you can see, now some are saying it’s mines being blown up.  Fog of war, I guess.  Who knows what’s really happening.

  60. 60.

    Sebastian

    June 6, 2023 at 12:56 pm

    Here is a tweet by a German firefighter who says that in his experience, the enormous amount of mud being swept downstream will dry out a few days after the water recedes and will be hard as concrete.

    I wonder what implications this will have upstream and downstream of the dam.

    Schaut euch das Video an. Ihr seht den dunklen Schlamm der nun angeschwemmt wird. 👇
    Frage:
    Was passiert, wenn dieser angeschwemmte Schlamm in den nun überfluteten Gebieten und an den Ufern beginnt abzutrocknen, weil der Wasserpegel sinkt? Na? 😏pic.twitter.com/IYgBYG6LCa
    — Bunkerhunter (RU warship – go FU!)🇨🇭🇭🇷🇺🇦🌻 (@Bunkerhunter) June 6, 2023

  61. 61.

    Carlo Graziani

    June 6, 2023 at 4:18 pm

    @Sebastian: I remember seeing the aftermath of the Great Flood in Iowa in 1993 on the news. People in and near Ames had a foot or more of mud on the ground floor of their homes. That’s when I learned that the level above “power washer” is a tool called a “steam hose.” I saw footage of one of those fluidizing caked mud and blowing it outthe door…

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