(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Last night in comments Beautiful Plumage asked:

Hi Adam, thank you for this series.

Considering the Aussie hornets – if the training & supply/repair networks for F-16s* was so unworkable until now, what makes these planes any easier to integrate with Ukraine’s MOD? Are they similar to other UKR aircraft?

First, you’re most welcome. As is everyone else. Now to the actual question, the reason the FA/18s would be a better fit was described in detail by Tyler Rogoway at The War Room’s The Drive in April, which we referenced in an update during April. Here’s what Rogoway wrote, which answers your question:

The original plan was for Air USA to acquire 46 Hornets. Canada had bought 25 prior to the deal with Air USA to help bolster its aging CF-18 fleet. The Australian Hornets are largely upgraded to an A++ standard, which gives them the capabilities of newer F/A-18Cs, including the type’s upgraded AN/APG-73 radar.

In addition, these Hornets have never been battered around on an aircraft carrier or exposed to constant salt water during deployment. So we are talking about nearly four dozen highly relevant and well-cared-for fighters here. This is pretty much the size of Ukraine’s MiG-29 fleet, prior to recent transfers from NATO supporters, the type serving as the backbone of its current fighter force.

Yes, the F-16 has the most impressive training and support infrastructure, but the F/A-18 still has that infrastructure, as well, and will be flooded with spare parts as more Hornets retire. More on that in a moment.

In terms of capabilities and performance, the F/A-18 is arguably better suited for Ukraine than the F-16. As a twin-engine design that excels at slow-speed handling, it is more in line with Ukraine’s MiG-29 and Su-27 fleets. Its very robust carrier-capable landing gear is also better suited for Ukraine’s Soviet-era airfield infrastructure and potential for distributed and austere operations, which Ukraine has been executing to make targeting harder for Russian forces. Like the F-16, it can carry pretty much anything that would be available to Ukraine now and in the future and can be quickly adapted to handle new capabilities if need be.

While upgraded with advanced targeting pods, Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing Systems (JHMCS), and many other enhancements, the ex-RAAF jets are not cutting edge and would present reduced technological risk in their current form. This makes them deliverable with minimal modifications.

The Hornet does not need to be the final fighter answer for Ukraine, either. Maybe F-16s will one day come, but the Hornet is available right now and fits well with their existing fighter mindset. It has the potential to get Ukraine into the 4th generation Western fighter game as soon as possible.

When you factor all this in, Australia’s unwanted Hornets present an incredible opportunity. One that is literally just sitting there for the taking. But what about training? Who could get aviators and maintainers up to snuff and how fast could they do it?

But one could argue no matter what type Ukraine gets, existing governmental training pipelines are not well set up for getting aircrews into combat as fast as possible. And by any account, this takes time to achieve. Here is where the private sector could come in.

Decades of knowledge have been gained by instructor pilots and maintainers on how to teach flying and supporting these aircraft. The Hornet was the mainstay of the Navy and Marines for many years, as well as a fixture in aforementioned foreign air arms. Private contractors could step in to rapidly train Ukrainians on the Hornet outside of, or in conjunction with, the far more rigid existing government-ran pipelines.

Under such an arrangement, the syllabus could be totally tailored to Ukraine’s needs and focus on converting as many pilots as possible as fast as possible based on their own individual needs, as well. Also, the mission sets they would need to perform would be more limited, at least to start, which could accelerate training.

Without all the red tape of a government-run training enterprise, pilots and ground crew could be generated quicker and some could argue, at least under these unique circumstances, better. Even a situation where government training handles some aspects of the syllabus and contractors take care of others could be a workable solution under these incredibly tight time constraints.

There’s more at the link, but I think that answers your question. I think the first sentence of Rogoway’s article also answers Sebastian’s question about how many F/A-18s would be available.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

The disaster at the Kakhovka HPP caused by Russian terrorists will not stop Ukraine and Ukrainians – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

6 June 2023 – 22:26

Dear Ukrainians!

This day, which began with an urgent meeting of the National Security and Defense Council, continued with a meeting of the Staff. We are waiting for a meeting of the UN Security Council.

The disaster at the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant caused by Russian terrorists will not stop Ukraine and Ukrainians. We will still liberate all our land. And each Russian act of terrorism increases only the amount of reparations that Russia will pay for its crimes, not the chances of the occupiers to stay on our land.

First of all, I am grateful to all our rescuers, military, representatives of local communities, each of our regions, who are now helping people from our southern regions flooded by the Russian terrorist attack.

Second, the government at all levels is doing everything to save people and provide drinking water to those who received it from the Kakhovka reservoir. Kryvyi Rih and the entire Dnipropetrovsk region, cities and villages in Kherson, Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia regions – no matter how difficult it is, we have to help people.

Third, I am grateful to everyone who is currently evacuating people from the towns and villages flooded by water from the Kakhovka reservoir. It is very important now to take care of each other and help as much as possible.

Fourth, the whole world will know about this Russian war crime, the crime of ecocide. This deliberate destruction of the dam and other HPP facilities by the Russian occupiers is an environmental bomb of mass destruction. For the sake of their own security, the world should now show that Russia will not get away with such terror. And I am grateful to all leaders and states, all nations and international organizations that have supported Ukraine and are ready to help our people and our de-occupation efforts. The Prosecutor General has already appealed to the Office of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court to involve international justice in the investigation of the dam explosion.

Today I spoke with IAEA Director Grossi, in particular about what happened to the Kakhovka reservoir and the general situation with the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. I called on the IAEA Director to directly and unequivocally condemn today’s Russian act of terrorism and to maximize our efforts to liberate the ZNPP. We agreed on his visit to Ukraine.

Fifth, it is only the complete liberation of Ukrainian land from Russian occupiers that will guarantee that such acts of terrorism will not happen again. Russia uses anything for terror – any object. The terrorist state must lose.

I want to say a few more things separately. Regarding our south and Crimea. We will find a way to restore normal life on our land after the expulsion of the ruscists. This applies to water and everything else. This applies to all our regions – from Kherson to Dnipropetrovsk, from Mykolaiv to Crimea.

The fact that Russia deliberately destroyed the Kakhovka reservoir, which is critically important, in particular, for providing water to Crimea, indicates that the Russian occupiers have already realized that they will have to flee Crimea as well.

Well, Ukraine will get back everything that belongs to it. And it will make Russia pay for what it has done.

Glory to all our people who are fighting and working for the sake of our country and our people!

Today, just like yesterday, I would like to celebrate our heroes in the Bakhmut sector… Well done, warriors! The 3rd separate assault brigade and the 57th separate motorized infantry brigade – thank you! Thank you for moving forward!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here’s some additional details, which given it’s been almost 24 hours you may have already seen, regarding the Nova Kakhovka dam.

This is a russian-made catastrophe. The world must unite to put an end to their hateful, anti-human ideology and terrorism. pic.twitter.com/IWtnMPgZUY

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 6, 2023

Nova Kakhovka, Kherson region. The russians are turning occupied territories of Ukraine into deserts, ruins, and flood zones. The world must join Ukraine in putting an end to russian terrorism.

🎥 @pravda_eng pic.twitter.com/POeY5wxKpR

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 6, 2023

New satellite images show the Nova Kakhovka dam before and after its destruction.

Cities along the river bank are now experiencing heavy flooding. pic.twitter.com/T4mkYhF9i4

— Brady Africk (@bradyafr) June 6, 2023

Right now I am in the center of Kherson. Water arrives very quickly, and the air smells of oil. We will feel the consequences of this disaster for decades to come. Russia is a terrorist state! pic.twitter.com/s3rNdf34df

— Oleksiy Goncharenko (@GoncharenkoUa) June 6, 2023

This is their fear.
Russians were so terminally scared of the perspective of Ukraine’s landing operation in the Dnipro’s east bank that they adhered to the worst option possible.
The Kakhovska Dam destruction is one of the biggest war crimes and acts of terror of our time.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 6, 2023

Prior to whatever happened overnight, the Kakhovka Reservoir had reached unprecedentedly high levels. This was likely due to Russian forces keeping too few gates open, the NYT reported, just months after letting the reservoir sink to historic lows: https://t.co/g9sGjPNTt9 pic.twitter.com/mKuGFakb3M

— Evan Hill (@evanhill) June 6, 2023

Here is a worst case modeling for the dam being damaged/destroyed:

IMPORTANT ADDENDUM 2023-06-06: The model have been further developed and water should start rising at Cherson city after three hours. The actual waterlevel in the dam is also higher than in the model below. Media enquires about the modelling of a dam breach at Nova Kakhovka should contact UNICEF in Ukraine who took over the initial model from Dämningsverket. THE MODELLING BELOW SHOULD NOT BE USED FOR DECISIONMAKING OR INFORMATION ON WHEN TO EVACUATE. THE UKRAINIAN AUTHORITIES WILL HAVE CORRECT INFORMATION.

This blogger is not an expert on hydrology, dam breaches or flooding. This blog just published a first prelminary modelling of a dam breach at Nova Kakhovka. Any interview requests will be declined.

A worst case modelling for a russian demolition of the Nova Kakhovka Dnipro river dam show that the worst flooding will take place on the left (south east) side of the river bank. A 4 – 5 m wave will hit the Antonovsky bridge east of Cherson city after 19 hours, and there will be a backswell flooding up the Inhulets river, and after 4 – 5 days there would be some flooding up the river Bug to Mykolaiv. The demolition of the Nova Kakhovka dam is a war crime according to the Geneva Convention, but Russia has already systematically broken the Geneva convention during it’s illegal war in Ukraine.

Clarification: The worst case here is that all the floodgates are blown, ie 200 meters. The entire dam is 3500 meters and in the event that 400 m or 1 800 m would be torn down the modeled time for the water to hit Cherson City would be almost halved. There would be some more flooding.

The following modelling of the worst-case dam break have been done by the Swedish hydrological engineering company Dämningsverket.

It is modeled using the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) software HEC-RAS 6.3, which is available here. The terrain data comes from Nasa.’s Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and are available from the United States Geographical Survey (USGS) here.

A model is a model. It is not reality. The CEO of Dämningsverket writes:

“As you know, all models are wrong, but some models are useful. This one is guaranteed to be wrong as I have nothing to calibrate it against, plus a host of other unknown parameters that I’ve just come up with, but I’d say it gives a picture of a worst-case scenario in case the Russians get around to blowing up the dam . I find it hard to see how it could get any worse than this, although it’s probably bad enough.”

The model is thus not based on actual measurements of the current state of the Dnipro flow, waterline, temperature, humidity, air pressure, wind speed and anytning else which would affect the model, but on assumptions for a worst case.

Assumptions include that the water-level in the dam is 13 meters above the Dnipro downstream, and that the dam break over an hour expands to a width of approximately 200 meters break in the dam.

When the wave hits the Antonivsky Bridge it will be between 4 and 5 meters of height. Wheter the severly damaged bridge would withstand the increased waterflow is not modeled.

The wave will be higher further upstream, and both speed and height of the wave is higher closer to the dam. It will take approximately 19 hours for the wave to hit Cherson City in this model, as the water spreads out over the lowlands and does not just rush forwards. The flooding will be much worse on the left side of the river (left/right side is when you are looking in the direction of the river flow, in this case towards the Black Sea – generally in this case the left side is the south or east side of the Dnipro). Most of Cherson City will not flood, but the harbour and the docklands including the island in the south of the city will be flooded.

Several smaller towns or villages on both sides of the Dnipro will be flooded and when the wave hits it will probably be very dangerous and lives will be lost.

There will be a backswell up the Inhulets river. In 4 – 5 days the swell will cause some flooding up the river Bug up to Mykolaiv. The isthmus at the end of the bay outside the Dnipro delta will be severly flooded and almost completely drowned, although this will start approximately 50 hours after the dam break.

The modelled flow will peak at 14 000 cubic meters of water per second (m3/s), which could be compared to the Niagara Falls average flow of 2 400 m3/s the Dnipro average according to Wikipedia of 1 670 m3/s. The flow will diminish over time.

This model is a worst case model and a simplification of reality as all models are. The reality will be something else if this war crime were to be commited by Russia.

Animation of the dam break below.

The model would be an indication of which areas should be evacuated if Russia were to commit the war crime of blowing the Nova Kakhovka dam. There would also be probable secondary effects including the cutting of cooling water for Europe´s largest nuclear power plant ZPP, which requires cooling even for the shut down reactors. A radiological disaster is a separate model, but with prevailing winds blowing eastwards it would generally be worse in the by Russia temporarily occupied territories or even within Russia itself if any fallout reaches the internationally accepted borders of Russia east of the Donbas. Exact results would be highly dependent on the weather conditions.

Clarificitation. In the case that 400 – 1800 meters width of the dam would break – the worst-worst-worst case and considering how the rest of the dam is constructed requiring an extremely large amount of destruction, one of the possibly biggest non-nuclear demolitions in history – the modeled time for water to reach Cherson would be almost halved and there would be some more flooding. The difference in flooding is seen below in magenta.

A video with 200, 400 and 1800 meter break below.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tRYWbVD5AE

Here is the IAEA Director General’s statement to the IAEA Board of Governors regarding the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant from early this morning Vienna time:

Today the Nova Kakhovka dam was severely damaged leading to a significant reduction in the level of the reservoir used to supply cooling water to the ZNPP.

The water is required for the essential cooling water system which provides cooling (among other) to the following:

• residual heat removal from the reactors (spent or partially spent fuel there);
• residual heat removal from the spent fuel ponds; and
• cooling of the emergency diesel generators (when they are running).

Absence of cooling water in the essential cooling water systems for an extended period of time would cause fuel melt and inoperability of the emergency diesel generators.

However, our current assessment is that there is no immediate risk to the safety of the plant.

The IAEA staff on the site have been informed that the damage to the Nova Kakhovka dam is currently leading to about 5 cm/hour reduction in the height of the reservoir. The team continues to monitor this rate and all other matters on the site.

The main line of cooling water is fed from the reservoir and pumped up through channels near the thermal power plant to the site. It is estimated that the water through this route should last for a few days.

Water in the reservoir was at around 16.4 m at 8 am. If drops below 12.7 m then it can no longer be pumped.

ISAMZ reported that ZNPP is making all efforts to pump as much water into its cooling channels and related systems as possible. In addition, non-essential consumers of water are being stopped at ZNPP to reduce the consumption of water.

ZNPP management is discussing further measures to be implemented.

There are a number of alternative sources of water.

A main one is the large cooling pond next to the site that by design is kept above the height of the reservoir. As the reactors have been shut down for many months it is estimated that this pond will be sufficient to provide water for cooling for some months. The Agency will confirm this very shortly.

It is therefore vital that this cooling pond remains intact. Nothing must be done to potentially undermine its integrity.

I call on all sides to ensure nothing is done to undermine that.

My trip to ZNPP next week was planned and now it is essential. I will go.

I will keep the Board informed as developments unfold.

And the follow on IAEA press release from later today:

The water level in the reservoir that is supplying Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) has been falling throughout the day, but the facility has back-up options available and there is no short-term risk to nuclear safety and security, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said.

Director General Grossi, who addressed the IAEA Board of Governors earlier today on the evolving situation at Ukraine’s damaged Nova Kakhovka dam and its impact on the ZNPP, said the loss rate had been changing, from around five centimetres per hour in the morning to nine cm/hour later in the afternoon.

Between 10 am and 8 pm local time, the reservoir fell by a total of 83 cm to 15.44 metres,  according to regular data received by the team of IAEA experts present at the ZNPP.

If and when the level goes below 12.7 metres, the ZNPP will no longer be able to pump water from the reservoir to replenish the reserves at the site. As the full extent of the damage to the dam is not yet known and the water loss rate is fluctuating, it is not possible to predict exactly when this might happen. If the current rate were to continue, however, this level could be reached in the next couple of days.

Even at that low level, the existing water in the ZNPP site’s sprinkler and cooling ponds as well as the adjacent channels can still be used for some time to cool the reactors and the spent fuel pools in the reactor buildings, which could otherwise be damaged, Director General Grossi said.

In addition, a large cooling pond next to the site – the ZNPP’s main alternative source of water in the absence of the reservoir – is currently full and has enough in storage to supply the plant for several months as its six reactors are in shutdown mode, Director General Grossi said, reiterating the vital necessity for it to stay intact.

Also if needed, the site can access a deep water-filled excavation in the ZNPP cargo port area, the water system of the nearby city of Enerhodar, and use mobile pumps and firefighter trucks to fetch water.

The IAEA team was informed by the plant that it has implemented measures to limit the consumption of water so that water is used only for essential nuclear-safety related activities such as the cooling of the reactors and the spent fuel pools.

Director General Grossi noted that Ukraine had carried out stress tests following the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, including the scenario of the Nova Kakhovka dam failing.

“There is a preparedness for events like this at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant, which will help staff to handle this new challenging situation. But, clearly, this is making an already very difficult and unpredictable nuclear safety and security situation even more so,” he said.

The Director General announced he will lead another IAEA rotation next week where he will assess the situation and address the current and planned measures with the plant management.

Also today, the IAEA team of experts at the Chornobyl site reported that a fire had broken out in the forest near the Paryshev village, in a zone currently unreachable from the Chornobyl side, as the bridge over the Pripyat river had been damaged and fire trucks cannot reach it. The IAEA team were informed that it was not assessed to be a major fire. There has been no increase in the radiation levels reported to the IAEA International Radiation Monitoring Information System (IRMIS) and the fire does not present any radiological risk to the population or staff working at the Chornobyl site.

300 animals died today in the Nova Kakhovka zoo due to russia’s destruction of the Kakhovka HPP dam.
This is ecocide.
The russians want to destroy anything that is alive. pic.twitter.com/OlTdQMLkuT

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 6, 2023

In the Nova Kakovka, due to the destruction of the dam by Russians, the zoo/recreation center "Kazkova Dibrova" was flooded. The zoo administration says that 300 animals have died. https://t.co/GUWAkQXOuL pic.twitter.com/1JJbKwumV7

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 6, 2023

These are satellite images of the russian man-made disaster at the Nova Kakhovka Dam and HPP.
The scene resembles a big-budget Hollywood post-apocalypse movie. However, this is the reality of the russian world. And the perpetrators of this war crime, another crime against… pic.twitter.com/IcJeCJi84C

— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) June 6, 2023

Here’s the full text of Minister Reznikov’s tweet:

These are satellite images of the russian man-made disaster at the Nova Kakhovka Dam and HPP.
The scene resembles a big-budget Hollywood post-apocalypse movie. However, this is the reality of the russian world. And the perpetrators of this war crime, another crime against humanity, will appear before the International Criminal Court.
This Ukraine can guarantee.

Article 56 of Protocol I of 1977 to Geneva Conventions 1949 «dams, dykes and nuclear electrical generating stations, shall not be made the object of attack… if such attack may cause the release of dangerous forces and consequent severe losses among the civilian population».
06… pic.twitter.com/r8WvNcl4bH

— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) June 6, 2023

And the full text of his tweet above:

Article 56 of Protocol I of 1977 to Geneva Conventions 1949 «dams, dykes and nuclear electrical generating stations, shall not be made the object of attack… if such attack may cause the release of dangerous forces and consequent severe losses among the civilian population». 06 June, 2023. Ukraine, Nova Kakhovska dam is blown up by russia, dangerous forces are released, humanitarian disaster is triggered. Another war crime is committed by russia

Analysis from The Kyiv Independent‘s Illia Ponomarenko:

So, based on everything we have seen by the end of this day, I guess here's my humble theory regarding the Kakhovka Dam destruction:
– Russia, as an occupying power, in violation of international law and despite multiple Ukrainian pleas, completely failed to ensure the security…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 6, 2023

Here’s the full text of his tweet:

So, based on everything we have seen by the end of this day, I guess here’s my humble theory regarding the Kakhovka Dam destruction: – Russia, as an occupying power, in violation of international law and despite multiple Ukrainian pleas, completely failed to ensure the security and proper maintenance of this key facility of very special importance. – Russia, despite Ukrainian and international efforts, absolutely failed to impose a demilitarized zone surrounding this key facility, and, similarly to facilities like the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant, it absolutely failed to abstain from deploying military forces in the facility’s vicinity. – And, in the first place, by default, as an aggressor waging a destructive war of conquest and openly defying the law of war, it is directly and solely responsible for the whole of the ongoing massive loss of life and the destruction taking place in Ukraine. So it’s more than obvious that regardless of the destruction’s very immediate cause (be it Russian bombs planted or deadly Russian negligence), all 100% of the blame is on nothing but Russia. I guess no one is taking seriously a dumb conspiracy theory saying that the dam could be destroyed by Ukraine — for the sake of… causing a major technological disaster, with over 80 cities and towns flooded and the whole region affected, in a territory it pursues to liberate from the foreign aggressor to no substantial military effect? With or without the major flooding, Ukraine is not even close to seriously expecting a successful and decisive landing operation in the Dnipro east bank, due to very obvious challenges and complexities. So, given the fact that the sudden disaster also seriously affected Russia’s military presence in the region — I guess the most probable answer is that Russians fucked things up. Yes, AGAIN. As they often do. They absolutely failed to ensure the dam’s proper operation, especially given its poor condition, and, knowingly committed gross violations, very possibly due to the fear of a possible limited Ukrainian assault from across the Dnipro. Fucking around and finding out, Vol. 45633. Knowing what Russia and its system is, the insane stupidity, IMHO, feels like a very likely answer. The result is what we’re seeing now live. An insane tragedy for Ukraine that we will have to deal with for decades to come. However, the dildo of consequence is coming soon, too. Again.

Ponomarenko is referring to this:

S-125 ❌| 'The Dildo of Consequences' ✅

🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/nFwb2hbmQW

— Oryx (@oryxspioenkop) June 4, 2023

Analysis from the Ukrainian officer who tweets as Tatarigami:

Regardless of how russians destroyed this dam, it is undeniably clear that the russia bears full responsibility for this incident. The true magnitude of this catastrophe has yet to be fully comprehended.
However, as reported by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, the… pic.twitter.com/ggGJin8paD

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) June 6, 2023

Here’s the full text of his tweet:

Regardless of how russians destroyed this dam, it is undeniably clear that the russia bears full responsibility for this incident. The true magnitude of this catastrophe has yet to be fully comprehended. However, as reported by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, the destruction of this dam has resulted in 94% of the irrigation systems in the Kherson region, 74% in the Zaporizhia region, and 30% in the Dnipropetrovsk region being deprived of a water source. Given the ongoing war and the scale of this problem, there is no quick solution in sight. The consequences of this disaster will have a lasting impact on the Ukrainian people and nations that rely on Ukrainian food supplies for their food security in the years to come. The displacement of thousands of individuals from their homes and the complete devastation of entire ecological systems is a serious issue. It demands an urgent and decisive response from the international community that surpasses mere expressions of concern and verbal condemnations. Immediate action is necessary to address and mitigate the far-reaching consequences of russian actions.

Satellite images of the flooded territories of the Kherson region. Nova Kakhovka, Kozatske, Korsunka, Krynkyhttps://t.co/j4jouN2a69 pic.twitter.com/gceLFGr4zb

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 6, 2023

A police officer in Kherson rescues a dog trapped and drowning in floodwaters as a result of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant dam explosion on June 6.
📽️: National Police of Ukraine pic.twitter.com/TBsBtY6LoH

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) June 6, 2023

This is what makes me proud of Ukrainians. Hours after Russia caused catastrophic disaster by blowing up the dam, hundreds of people began to collect aid, volunteering to help people and animals. Many risk their lives as Russia continues shelling the right bank of Dnipro. pic.twitter.com/rGXlzDgZfN

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) June 6, 2023

The Russians blew the dam for four reasons. The first is it fits within their ongoing genocidal strategy to destroy anything and everything that is Ukrainian. The second is that blowing the dam takes a major source of power generation – the Nova Kakhovka Hydrological Power Plant – offline. Up until last night Ukraine was not only supplying most of its own power, but was also exporting significant power to the EU. With the NKHPP offline, both of those things become much, much harder. The third is the destruction of significant agricultural lands offline by flooding them. Getting them back up and under cultivation is not just waiting for the flood waters to recede, they are going to have to be decontaminated. This means that it is now harder for Ukraine to feed itself as well as to export agricultural products to the rest of the world. As a result, food prices are likely to rise again. And in areas of the global south, food insecurity will significantly increase. In many of the global south states and societies Russia and the PRC have already won the information war and they dominate the information environment. As such, don’t expect the citizens of those states to recognize that it is Russia’s actions that has led to their further immiseration. Finally, by flooding the Dnipro, the Russians have made it harder for the Ukrainians to conduct riparian/riverine operations across the Dnipro against Russian positions.

Bakhmut:

Meanwhile, in the Battle of Bakhmut, confirmed Ukrainian advances at Berkhivka & local pond. pic.twitter.com/tT9ttooUOs

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 6, 2023

You may be asking what Ukrainian air defense is doing?

Last night, russians attacked Ukraine with 35 cruise missiles Kh-101/Kh-555.
ALL OF THEM WERE SHOT DOWN.
Glory to Ukraine's air defenders!@KpsZSU

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 6, 2023

It is air defensing!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Just another terrorist attack? No, it is planned ecocide. russia is trying to kill everyone and everything in Ukraine. And they will never stop on their own. We should stop them. #StopEcocideUkraine https://t.co/dDeCDMnIGk

— Patron (@PatronDsns) June 6, 2023

Animal rescuers are already working in the Kherson region. They will search for surviving animals to save them. We need your help! My PayPal [email protected] and the link https://t.co/piNaS1FDxB pic.twitter.com/nFOGfYb0fF

— Patron (@PatronDsns) June 6, 2023

And +
Thank you❤️ pic.twitter.com/zME6vkmPsM

— Patron (@PatronDsns) June 6, 2023

For those wondering, 46,723.95 Ukrainian hryvnia equals $1,264.23 at today’s exchange rate of 36.96 hryvnias to $1.

Open thread!