Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Come on, man.

We can’t confuse what’s necessary to win elections with the policies that we want to implement when we do.

Hi god, it’s us. Thanks a heap, you’re having a great week and it’s only Thursday!

Optimism opens the door to great things.

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

Giving in to doom is how authoritarians win.

I did not have this on my fuck 2025 bingo card.

This year has been the longest three days of putin’s life.

GOP baffled that ‘we don’t care if you die’ is not a winning slogan.

The snowflake in chief appeared visibly frustrated when questioned by a reporter about egg prices.

Michigan is a great lesson for Dems everywhere: when you have power…use it!

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

We still have time to mess this up!

The Supreme Court cannot be allowed to become the ultimate, unaccountable arbiter of everything.

The Giant Orange Man Baby is having a bad day.

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

“Perhaps I should have considered other options.” (head-desk)

Cancel the cowardly Times and Post and set up an equivalent monthly donation to ProPublica.

Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?

Balloon Juice, where there is always someone who will say you’re doing it wrong.

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

A sufficient plurality of insane, greedy people can tank any democratic system ever devised, apparently.

You are so fucked. Still, I wish you the best of luck.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 469: Another Day, Another Russian War Crime.

War for Ukraine Day 469: Another Day, Another Russian War Crime.

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Sorry we’re a bit late tonight. I had an afternoon and early evening full of appointments. So tonight’s post will be briefer than usual. Same type of schedule for tomorrow night too.

In addition to blowing up the Nova Kakhovka dam and hydroelectric power plant, the Russians have also been going after the ammonia pipeline in Kharkiv:

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

International organizations, such as the ICRC, must immediately join the rescue of people in the occupied part of Kherson region – address by the President of Ukraine

7 June 2023 – 22:41

Fellow Ukrainians!

Today, maximum attention is paid to the consequences of the Russian act of terrorism at the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant. Dozens of settlements on the territory under our control have been flooded. Thousands of houses!

Evacuation continues. Under fire! Russian artillery continues to fire, no matter what. Savages.

But as of now, more than 2,000 people have been rescued in Kherson and Mykolaiv regions. And I thank everyone involved in this work, everyone who helps! Our task is to protect lives and help people as much as possible.

The situation in the occupied part of Kherson region is absolutely catastrophic. The occupiers simply abandoned people in these terrible conditions. Without rescue, without water, just on the rooftops in flooded communities. And this is another deliberate crime of Russia: after the terrorist state has caused a disaster, it also maximizes the damage from it.

Now we need a clear and quick response from the world to what is happening. It is even impossible to establish for sure how many people in the temporarily occupied territory of Kherson region may die without rescue, without drinking water, without food, without medical care. Our military and special services are rescuing people as much as it is possible, despite the shelling.

But large-scale efforts are needed. We need international organizations, such as the International Committee of the Red Cross, to immediately join the rescue operation and help people in the occupied part of Kherson region. Each person who dies there is a verdict on the existing international architecture and international organizations that have forgotten how to save lives. If there is no international organization in the area of this disaster now, it means that it does not exist at all, that it is incapable of functioning. All the relevant appeals from Ukraine and our government are in place.

Many world leaders, heads of state, governments, and interstate associations have expressed their support for Ukraine and clear condemnation of the Russian crime of ecocide. I am grateful for this principled approach!

Together we must bring the occupiers to justice. They have controlled the dam and the entire hydroelectric power plant for more than a year. Russian propagandists were seriously and openly discussing this very scenario of a man-made disaster, which they caused. Last fall, we warned the world about Russia’s mining of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant.

We called for both sending an international observation mission to Kakhovka and demining the units and all the plant’s facilities. Unfortunately, the world’s attention was not enough to ensure all this. Now we must focus the world’s attention on eliminating the consequences of another catastrophe caused by Russia, and we must prevent further destructive activity of the occupiers.

I had several important international conversations today.

Turkish President Erdoğan. I briefed him on the situation in the flooded areas, our rescue operation and urgent needs to help people.

Of course, we also discussed the risks to the Zaporizhzhia NPP, which is still under the control of the occupiers. We have an agreement with the head of the IAEA to intensify the work of IAEA representatives at the plant. But it is clear that as long as the occupiers are there, there can be no complete security. Therefore, the de-occupation of Ukraine is a non-alternative task.

French President Macron. We discussed in great detail all the consequences of the Russian act of terrorism at the plant and the overall situation. We discussed everything we can do to help people and the affected regions.

We also thoroughly discussed defensive actions, as well as international measures that we are preparing in spite of everything, because we need security despite any aggressive and openly insane actions of Russia.

Separately, I want to mention a few things that are important for our entire country, and especially for people in those regions of our country that depended on the Kakhovka reservoir.

First. We will provide drinking water to everyone. In all regions, districts, cities and villages where it is necessary. All the necessary supply systems will be put in place where there is currently a delivery of drinking water. Sustainability of supply is the main principle.

Second. The world will be with us. Our partners are fully informed about what is happening and what kind of help we need. Whatever the economic, social and environmental consequences of this disaster, all the basics of life will be preserved. Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro regions – we see all the problems and will do everything possible and impossible to solve the problems created by the occupiers.

Third. The direct responsibility of state and local authorities in all affected communities and regions is to help people. From the Government and the State Emergency Service to regional authorities and local communities, everyone is involved to the maximum extent possible to save and protect as many people as possible. Everyone should take this task personally. And I am grateful to those who do! Let’s take care of each other and Ukraine!

And, of course, today I thank each of our warriors, all units, all brigades that continue to fight the occupiers.

The Bakhmut direction, Avdiivka, all of Khortytsia, all of Tavria – great job!

No matter what, every day should be a day of destruction of the enemy.

Glory to all our heroes!

Glory to all who care about Ukraine and Ukrainians!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here’s the full text of Mykhailo Podolyak’s tweet:

#Kherson now. Water level continues to grow. People are rescuing neighbors, animals and children from the flood. Rescue services and local residents with inflatable boats are organizing themselves into groups and taking their neighbors out of the flooded villages. The #Russians are not even trying to organize evacuation from the occupied territories. The “liberators” leave people to die on rooftops, continuing to shell the Ukrainian-controlled bank of the #Dnipro River, hindering evacuation efforts. The Z-“liberators” are laughing and foaming at the mouth: “it worked out well, we should turn the whole of central #Ukraine into a polluted gray zone”. This proves once again that today Ukrainians are fighting against absolute concentrated evil. And the fight against evil requires everyone to call a spade a spade.

Photo: Stas Kozliuk

Here’s a thread on the flooding by the Ukrainian officer who tweets as Tatarigami.

Here’s the full text of Iuliia Mendel’s tweet:

The epidemiological situation in the Kherson region in the near future is frightening. Cemeteries washed away by water, people and animals dying in the water, and the southern summer heat. I am afraid that diseases and pandemics are inevitable. And what about mines that can float to the infrastructure with the water and explode there? These are just some of the many challenges that Kherson region will face when the high water recedes. While the war continues…

Here’s analysis by the Center for Naval Analysis’s Michael Kofman. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

A Ukrainian cross-river operation in southern Kherson, below the dam, was always a risky and therefore low-probability prospect. There is no evidence that such an operation was under way, or would have necessarily been a part of the UA offensive plans. 
Destroying the dam does not substantially shorten Russian lines, or make defense much easier, although it does make a UA cross-river operation exceedingly difficult in that area. But, the flood will likely also destroy the initial line of Russian entrenchments along the river. 
If the Ukrainian plan is to break through RF lines in Zaporizhia and advance to the ground lines of communication from Crimea, or sever the ‘land bridge’ (and I won’t speculate as to what it might be), the resultant flooding is unlikely to impede such an operation. 
This is an ecological and humanitarian catastrophe, with long term economic implications for the region, for which Russia is responsible, but I’m skeptical that Ukraine’s military prospects in the short term will be negatively affected in a meaningful way. 

Here is one of the most detailed pieces of evidence I’ve seen so far from NPR’s science writer. First tweet from the thread followed by the rest from the Thread Reader App:

First, a little background on what had been going on. Water levels plummeted in February and then surged in May to record highs.Image
I think this is because Russia was not managing the dam. They left some sluice gates open on their side, which caused water levels to drop at the start of winter…

But after the spring rains, the gates weren’t letting enough water through…

In early May, water levels were so high, that it started to overtop the dam. That means water was actually flowing over the sluicegates.

The dam had already been damaged in two previous incidents.

❌ A possible Ukrainian strike in late Oct/Early Nov.

❌ A likely Russian explosive charge that blew up part of the roadway over the dam on 11 Nov.

(Sources: reuters.com/world/europe/u…
And reuters.com/world/europe/n…Image

The dam was already under enormous strain and damaged.

Then things got worse. On 2 June, it looks like a road over the dam failed. That could be indicative of a larger structural failure.ImageImage

I made a short movie here using @planet imagery.

You can see that the road, which runs over the dam, was washed away between 2-3 June. That indicates to me that there were structural issues at the facility before whatever happened today. 

It is obviously possible that the Russians destroyed the dam in the face of a new Ukrainian offensive.

But given the recent past events at the dam, I think a structural failure coincident to the offensive cannot be ruled out. Not yet anyway.

Unroll available on Thread Reader
OK, so consequences–

The first one is catastrophic flooding on the lower Dnipro river. I don’t know enough about the hydrology to know how it’ll play out, but Kherson and Nova Kakhovka are the two biggest cities likely at risk.Image

The second is at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant. The plant relies on the Dnipro reservoir for its cooling water.

My previous reporting suggests if water levels fall below 13.2 m, it will cause cooling problems. (I’m not sure how hard that limit is).

At the moment, the reactors at ZNPP are in cold shutdown. They still require cooling to move residual heat out of their cores, but it’s at much lower levels than during normal operation…Image
So when the water levels drop below the critical limit (and they will in a matter of days or weeks, I suspect), it will not trigger an immediate nuclear crisis.

However, I have no idea how the plant will be able to maintain cooling in perpetuity. 

Here’s a little background on the plant’s cooling pond. It appears to be separated from the reservoir, but I have no idea how good that separation once the reservoir drains completely.

Bottom line– This is really bad news for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant.

The plant has already endured:
❌shelling
❌ numerous blackouts
❌ A major exodus of staff
❌ Russian military occupation

Now it’s going into the summer without its main source of cooling water.Image

And speaking of summer, that’s the final consequence to think about:

The Kakhovka reservoir supplied irrigation and drinking water to the region–particularly Russian-held Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

This is going to ruin the crop and leave many cities without water. 

Final postscript (and then I’m going back to bed for a few hours anyway):

The canal that supplies water to Crimea has its intake just above the dam. However, as TASS reported last Nov, Russia has topped up Crimea’s reservoirs. No immediate crisis there.

tass.com/russia/1535583

The video going around of an explosion on top of the dam is, most likely, video from the 11 NOV 2022 Russian explosive charge that Brumfiel references in his fifth tweet above. This does not mean that Russia did not blow up the dam, it just means the video making the rounds may not be from yesterday.

Here’s the full text of Igor Lachenkov’s first tweet:

❗️The undermining of the Kakhovska HPP dam is not only one of the biggest ecological and humanitarian disasters in the east of Europe that led to the flooding of vast territories and many settlements, but is in fact the biggest crime against food security in the world.

The Kakhov reservoir was the heart of one of the largest irrigation systems in Europe. It was the southern regions of Ukraine that supplied the countries of the Middle East, Asia, Africa and Europe with wheat, corn, sunflower and sunflower oil, soybeans and soybean meal.

We call on everyone who cares about the fate of our planet and the environment, who declares their status as environmentalists and defines nature protection activities as their goals — to take all possible measures in order to record these violations, bring the culprits to justice, and make it impossible to commit such barbarism in the future.

@IUCN @ConservationOrg @nature_org @FoEint @earthwatch_org @TheWSC @SierraClub @EnvDefenseFund @NRDC @globalwild_cc @WorldResources @conservationall @CenterForBioDiv @ifawglobal @earthjustice @UCSUSA @savingoceans @earthisland @intlrivers @oceana @FaunaFloraInt @EIA_News @theGEF @wspa @UNESCO

The world and our planet will face catastrophic consequences if you choose inaction!

And here’s the full text of his second tweet:

The consequences are: – The impossibility of taking water necessary for cooling the Zaporizhzhya NPP, which outcomes as a threat to the nuclear safety of the world; – A mass death of aquatic organisms (fish, molluscs, crustaceans, microorganisms, aquatic vegetation) with further disturbance of their habitat, including birds and other amphibians and animals; – Significant risks for rodent populations, in particular endemic species and those listed in the Red Book of Ukraine; – Disturbance of the habitats of plant complexes; – Negative impact on water areas, coastal areas and the land part of three Ukrainian national nature parks – “Nizhnyodniprovskyi”, “Kamyanska Sichi”, “Biloberezhya Svyatoslav”, Black Sea Biosphere Reserve (this territory also has the status of a UNESCO biosphere reserve), Regional landscape park “Kinburnska Kosa” and numerous objects of the nature reserve fund with smaller areas. All these territories also have the status of Wetlands of international importance, protected in accordance with the Ramsar Convention, and are also territories of the Emerald Network, protected in accordance with the Berne Convention; – The pollution of the waters of the Dnipro and the Black Sea – primary pollution due to the ingress of fuel and lubricant materials into the waters, washing away of garbage, agrochemicals, other dangerous materials, flooding and failure of sewage treatment systems, sewage, and so-called “secondary pollution” – A leaching, transfer of mines and other explosive substances, increase in mine danger; These are only few major aftermath to come.

And his third and final tweet:

The criminal actions of russia on following points: The violation of provision of Article 3. 35 of Chapter I, Part III of the Additional Protocol to the Geneva Conventions of August 12, 1949, Concerning the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conflicts Regarding the Prohibition of Methods or Means of Conduct of Military Actions Which Are Intended to Cause or Can Be Expected to Cause Widespread, Long-Term, and Serious Damage natural environment. Such barbaric actions of the Russian Federation violate the basic principles and ideas that the civilized world developed for decades and enshrined in a number of international agreements, for example, in such as the Convention on Wetlands of International Importance, Mainly as a Habitat for Waterfowl and the Convention on protection of wild flora and fauna and natural habitats in Europe. Such actions of the enemy once again demonstrate to the world community the absolute leveling of the Russian Federation against international norms, standards and rules. Such criminal actions of the Russian military definitely and completely fall under the criminal law qualification under Art. 8 (2) (b) (iv) of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court.

Some of you emailed last night to ask about this fundraiser. As far as I know Ragnar is legit.

Here’s the link to their NGO documents from the bottom of their homepage.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Привітати Михайла можна за посиланням у шапці профілю❤️

♬ original sound – 𝐋𝐃𝐑🍒

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

You can congratulate Mykhailo at the link in the profile header ❤️

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

67Comments

  2. 2.

    Alison Rose

    I just cannot comprehend the level of evil required to do this AND to blame it all on the victims. I’m trying not to let myself get consumed by hate but it is a struggle. Seeing the photo of that doggo clinging onto the rescuer’s leg, and the tiny kitten clinging to the wall above the water, and all the people trapped in their homes surrounded by a fucking ocean…it’s just so beyond reprehensible. How much torture and trauma will Ukraine be forced to suffer while we watch?

    Each person who dies there is a verdict on the existing international architecture and international organizations that have forgotten how to save lives. If there is no international organization in the area of this disaster now, it means that it does not exist at all, that it is incapable of functioning.

    Yep. 100% accurate.

    I’m sure I speak for all of us when I say that whatever time and whatever length these posts come to us is not an issue at all. The work is of immeasurable value in any form and at any hour. So thank you as always, Adam.

  3. 3.

    Gin & Tonic

    To elaborate a bit on a comment I made downstairs: I talked with my friend E, a PhD retired from a career in flood control with the USACE, with an extensive network of personal and professional contacts in Ukraine. He says that Kakhovka was a “low head” dam and the breach was a small portion of its breadth, so the catastrophic flooding is relatively limited and will abate fairly quickly. The long-term issue is with irrigation, which the reservoir was used for. Agriculture will be decimated for at least a decade. I also talked with my friend M, who lives in Ukraine and who has sailed most of the navigable miles of the Dnipro, and he confirms E’s conclusions about the flooding and about agriculture. He says much of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts will revert to steppe (dry grasslands.)

  4. 4.

    Mallard Filmore

    A snippet from DailyKos …

    The aftermath of the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam on the Dnipro River continues.

    Oleshky is across the Dnipro River from Kherson in the occupied part of Kherson Oblast.

    The Russians there are apparently uninterested in rescuing residents there. There are even reports that Russians have been firing on rescuers.

  5. 5.

    eversor

    Wondering how much of this was to damage Ukraine driectly and how much was to set off (worsen) a food crisis in the Global South where a good portion of them already want Ukraine to give in to Russia for political reasons and because they want the food.   Because this is already portrayed as the US/West is willing to starve the Global South to spread bad western values into Ukraine.

    The ripples from this conflict are global and will keep starving people and causing civil unrest in all sorts of places as long as it goes on.

  6. 6.

    Sally

    This is such a catastrophe, on such an unprecedented level (words that we are using with increasing frequency), that everything needs to swept aside and rescue teams from the UN, from all countries with expertise, need to be mobilised into Ukraine.  We in the world must act to mitigate the ongoing and long term effects of this environmental and humanitarian catastrophe.  Disasters much smaller than this elicit international intervention.

    I am appalled that governments around the world are not already informing Russia that they will be initiating relief and rescue efforts. This just overwhelms anything, everything else.  I am appalled that the governments seem to be stuck talking about who caused this.  Yes it is another war crime committed by Russia, but that must be dealt with later.  Our priority needs to be providing relief to Ukrainians on both sides of the river.

    I advocate that we write to our representatives in all levels of government and other non government agencies to ensure that the people of Ukraine are not left to drown, to be homeless, to be helpless in the wake of this.  Regardless of who wants to blame whom, relief and mitigation must be delivered as soon as it can be mobilised.  We jump in to assist in earthquakes, in fires, in floods, in many other major disasters.  This should be no different.

    And Russia must not be allowed to get away with this. Russians are apparently shooting at Ukrainian rescue teams.  If this catastrophe is no one’s red line, then we are truly lost.  This is the end of the war, Russia get out.

  8. 8.

    Sally

    @Gin & Tonic: I know, that is why I wrote it.  And why I advocate that the very least we can do is inundate our reps with pleas and demands that the narrative change from “who did this?” to “we must act now”.

  10. 10.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @eversor: I am not sure food production will be greatly impacted. It seems the areas flooded are mostly marshes & swamps near the mouth of the Dnipro to begin w/, & the flooded area is still a small percentage of Ukraine overall. I also doubt its military value, for the reasons Kofman discussed. The Ukrainian Army has only conducted reconnaissance patrols across the river in that area, & set up small outposts to stage such patrols. The terrain does not support any meaningful Ukrainian offensive.

    It is really incompetence or an act of spite on Russia’s part.

  11. 11.

    coin operated

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    It is really incompetence or an act of spite on Russia’s part.

    The two are not mutually exclusive when talking about Russia.

  13. 13.

    Another Scott

    Thanks Adam and Gin & Tonic for the facts, information, and informed analysis.  This is a huge disaster for the people affected, and VVP’s forces are responsible whether they intentionally blew it up with explosives or not.  Modern dams don’t just “fail”.  Improper operation and intentional damage and unrepaired damage which cause failure are the responsibility invaders who occupy the territory or prevent safe operation.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  14. 14.

    NutmegAgain

    I’ve been following the flood news almost since the Russkies blew the dam, and honestly, the bad news continues to roll over me like flood waters. It really reminds me of scenes from post-hurricane Katrina. And the idea (well, reality) that these conditions were created on purpose is just so many times more horrific. Words fail. I’ve sent some €€; I only wish I had more to send.

  16. 16.

    Chetan Murthy

    I don’t know how many around here follow @JuliaDavisNews (aka Russian Media Monitor), basically the ur-source for all the translations of Russian talking heads/propoagandists that we see everywhere.  Anyway, she has a new vid up from one of those roundtable shows.  It’s interesting how the various commentators can’t restrain themselves from crowing about the dam attack, and it’s left to the moderators to try to tamp down on the glee.  And one of the guys who is usually a bit of a “liberal” is doing the most crowing.  Pretty appalling, even as it’s interesting.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZleGyZKTV9k

  18. 18.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Sebastian: OK, now you have me curious.  We obviously agree in our assessment of these grues.  But why do you think that they’ll be assassinated by the GRU ?  I mean,  they’re state propagandists, and they’re parrotting Putin’s line: you’d think that as long as they do that with fidelity (which, AFAICT, they are doing) they’ll be fine.

    What am I missing?

  20. 20.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Sebastian: Oh ha, you mean the GUR (or HUR) ?  heh indeed.  Maybe you saw that news yesterday about a Hutu financier who funded the Interahamwe in perpetrating the massacre in Rwanda ?  He was found to be unfit to stand  trial (b/c he’d evaded capture for so many years).  I trust that Ukraine will ensure that no Russian war criminal has that kind of pleasant end.

  21. 21.

    Sebastian

    @Chetan Murthy:

    No, didn’t see that but you are right. The Ukrainians will have a Gideon’s Sword on steroids. All of those fuckers will end up crispy.

  22. 22.

    Lyrebird

    Nothing to add to the great and yes overwhelming discussion of the ecological & humanitarian disaster.

    I will just add that if anyone wasn’t sure what to congratulate Mykhailo for, the typed words on the Patron video say something like Happy birthday to you, Mykhailo!

    I hope his next birthday is in freedom and comparative safety!
    Of course the sapprs’ work will not be done for years… SIGH.

  23. 23.

    Chetan Murthy

    Whoa.  Prigo is off the leash.  He says 2-3mos from now, after major losses both in UA and *in RU* there’ll be firing squads for feckless generals.  And lots more.  Boy howdy, don’t know what the boy’s game plan is, but he better have a strong “roof”.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LBQxpwc4SA

  24. 24.

    West of the Rockies

    I would like to think that Russia will face massive amounts of ill will on the world stage for decades.  Their criminality and inhumanity should not be forgotten or forgiven for many years.

  25. 25.

    Bill Arnold

    Russia’s war in Ukraine is undermining global efforts to tackle the climate crisis, new report finds (CNN, Laura Paddison, Wed June 7, 2023)
    Didn’t find the report text in a very brief search, and the report may have been delivered today[1].
    The CNN piece is quite interesting. It does not mention the shutdown of 6+ gigawatts of near-zero-carbon electricity generation, mostly Zaporizhzhia’s 6GW + 350 MW hydro at the destroyed dam itself, both perhaps long term (years+); the Zaporizhzhia nuclear-thermal plant’s cooling system has no water to work with (perhaps replaceable with cooling towers or water pumped from some more difficult source). And dams are not quickly rebuilt.
    For those who want to do the estimates; RCP 6 (climate catastrophe) is roughly 1000 petagrams/gigatons of excess carbon (and equivalents). 1 billion dead humans due to global heating in the fullness of time (next century, mostly) is a low-median estimate (optimistic, TBH). A gigawatt coal power plant burns roughly 3 megatons of coal (mostly carbon) per year.

    Side event: Bonn SB 58 panel discussion, 14:45-16:00 CEST, 7 June 2023

    Speakers:
    …
    Climate Damage caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine | Lennard de Klerk, Initiative on GHG Accounting of War

  26. 26.

    Andrya

    @Chetan Murthy:   Timothy Snyder has said that one of the disadvantages of a dictatorship- especially a personalist dictatorship, which russia has become- is that they have no clear, legally defined principle for succession for the head of government.  prigozhin obviously recognizes this, and is licking his chops at the opportunities offered by putin losing what was regarded as an easily winnable war.  If I were advising prigozhin, I would advises him to stay away from windows- and careless smokers.

  28. 28.

    Sebastian

    @Bill Arnold:

    It doesn’t (to you and me at least) but I have a hunch the GUR (thanks Chetan Murphy!) will develop a “signature” so the Ruzzians know who did it.

  30. 30.

    Bill Arnold

    @Sebastian:

    GUR (thanks Chetan Murphy!) will develop a “signature” so the Ruzzians know who did it.

    Agreed, if they chose to go fully down that path. Ambiguity can be a good tactic, though. If a few go insane, or have strokes or heart attacks, or etc, well, these things can happen. Cross their name/face off the list.

    The people organizing the corruption of young Russian minds are similarly evil. This piece is deeply anger-inducing.
    Russia’s Frighteningly Fascist Youth – A new generation of Russians glorifies war, death, and Vladimir Putin. (Foreign Policy, MAY 21, 2023, Ian Garner, a historian and translator of Russian war propaganda.)

    Alina is not merely parroting the propaganda of her own government and the social media groups she has joined. She has learned to speak a language of violence—a language of Russian fascism.
    Alina is not alone. Thousands of Russians are today participating in this public display of hatred and warmongering on the Runet—the Russian-language internet, which has its own social networks, search engines, blogging sites, and a wide range of apps.

  32. 32.

    Chetan Murthy

    @am: Doubt it changes much at all.  An attack against the Three Gorges Dam would almost certainly be regarded as a declaration of war, and for such a grievous act, I can only imagine that the response would be national obliteration, one way or another.  The death toll from such an attack would be enormous — like destroying a large American city (actually, more like destroying an entire region) and I doubt that questions of legality would enter into the PRC’s response.

  33. 33.

    Sebastian

    @Bill Arnold:

    Yeah, this has been going on for a while. A very dark strain of nihilism weaves through the entire Russian culture. Just look how Wagner’s brutality is being celebrated.

    Or the reports of what happened in Bucha’s (and everywhere else in the occupied territories) torture chambers or the mobile crematoria the Russians where dragging along during their initial attack on Kyiv.

  36. 36.

    Jinchi

    @Andrya: prigozhin obviously recognizes this, and is licking his chops at the opportunities offered by putin losing what was regarded as an easily winnable war.

    Putin may be susceptible to a coup, but does Prigozhin really have a path to take over Russia?

    It’s not enough to assassinate or overthrown the dictator, you have to have enough of a power base that the institiutions of the country will follow your lead. It seems much more likely that someone in the military or FSB would be able to seize control.

  37. 37.

    Debbie (Aussie)

    To be safe on the other side of the world seems wrong. I feel so much anger at the ruzzians, am overwhelmed by the strength and compassion of the Ukrainian people. Shouldn’t support be going to Kershon from outside Ukraine. Why isn’t the world rushing to help???? (Rhetorical question) WAR

    i would like to add my very sincere thanks to Adam for the amazing work he is doing to keep the jackals informed. And a thank you to this community of compassionate and thoughtful people.

  38. 38.

    Jay

    @Debbie (Aussie):

    Canada is sending more aid tomorrow.

    Stuff takes time.

    We are burning up here, and it’s taken 2 weeks to get other firefighters and the military mobilized.

    I spent most of this morning puking, because the air quality is so bad.

    But fast water rescue teams are gathering at the airports right now, with gear, (I know some of the guys).

  39. 39.

    Sebastian

    It looks like the offensive has started.

     

    Several Russian sources are noticing a dramatic increase in fire and assault on their positions tonight in Zaporizhzhia direction. They say tanks are attacking their positions and shelling is non-stop:

    Zapiski Veterana:
    “I think now we can already talk about the beginning of the… pic.twitter.com/z4updAEb8y
    — Dmitri (@wartranslated) June 7, 2023

  41. 41.

    Sebastian

    Here is more:

     

    “Eight or ten brigades from the reserve have already been torn apart and smeared to nothing”: Russian officer on Russian losses in the first four days of Ukraine’s pre-offensive probing assaults

    Starting June 4, Ukraine launched small attacks of platoon and company size across the front to identify hidden Russian artillery and other positions, then reportedly “methodically” smashed them with a hellfire of HIMARS and other strikes, according to the site Volya, an independent Russian-language site with security contacts in Russia and Ukraine

    Panicking Russian commanders “demanded reinforcements and defined the situation as critical,” perceiving Ukraine’s probing attacks “as the main offensive actions almost everywhere”

    “But the main strike of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has not yet begun, and a third of the reserves of [Russia’s] Zaporizhya group are already participating in battles and suffering losses”

    Other details:

    -A Ukrainian advance west of Vuhledar threatens to cut off two Russian brigades at Velyka Novosilka.
    -A second Ukrainian assault developed today near Orikhiv toward Tokmak.
    -Russia’s Dnipro Group of Forces is considering an “imminent” withdrawal from occupied Kherson to prepared defenses near Crimea and Melitopol.
    -Ukrainian forces are advancing around Bakhmut and may soon encircle the city. “It can be assumed that in the next two weeks or faster the city will either be completely surrounded by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, or liberated.’
    -Russia pulled large numbers of troops out of Luhansk to defend Bilhorod from rebel incursions and potentially mount a desperate attack on northeastern Ukraine toward Kupyansk in hopes of flanking Ukrainian forces further to the south.

    I cannot vouch for the accuracy. Here’s the tweet:
    https://twitter.com/ArmedMaidan/status/1666568231249752065

  43. 43.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Jay: Ehh, Dmitri’s tweet cites Russian milbloggers.  Anything from those sources is already known to RU military, right?  As long as the only information you cite comes from Russia, you aren’t giving away anything, right?

  45. 45.

    Debbie (Aussie)

    @Jay: yes Jay. I’ve been reading about your terrible fires. I understand Queensland has sent som firefighters. Hope they can get them under control soonest. I also am very hopeful that the F-16’s we have stored away will make their way to Ukraine.

    with regard to Ukraine. When natural disasters happen, earthquakes, cyclones etc the world seems to go running.

  46. 46.

    Jay

    If you're a believer, pray tonight. If you're not, hold a keepsake close & say some words to the old gods or the new, to whomever may be listening, for these warriors fighting on behalf of freedom, democracy, decency & goodness in the world. 🕯️May #smoke be all 🇷🇺 sees pic.twitter.com/TYe2apai7z— 🐺 🍁 Monty ꑭ 🦑 (@MontayBayBay) June 8, 2023

  47. 47.

    Andrya

    @Jinchi:  I agree.  I was theorizing about what prigozhin thinks he can do, not what he can do.

    That said, bad as any dictatorship is, I think a dictatorship with a succession plan (for example, the dictator is chosen by the Politburo) is better than one which depends on the the feral cunning and successful violence of the contenders.  I would rather have lived in the USSR under Brezhnev than under Stalin.

  48. 48.

    Traveller

    I have been so angered and enraged by this criminal act, this wanton and open disregard for humanity that I have written at LGM and elsewhere, somewhat of a curse:
    That this crime shall so stain Russia that unto the end of this generation and this generation’s children, Russia and Russians will never be forgiven for this exceptionally horrific criminal act, and shall be outcast from the wider world and vilified wherever they are found.

    In retrospect, and looking back upon my rage, I see that this is actually calling for collective punishment. A thing, I suppose, that I’m feeling badly about, and yet, seeing all the destruction I’m even further angered… I need to walk myself back off of this high wall and not be Russian-like, a possible future worthy epitaph of disdain and disgust.

    Those that wait and watch and hope, serve also…This war is taking a toll beyond what might have been imagined on many of us that are far from the actual events on the ground. A difficult time for all of us.

  49. 49.

    Jay

    @Debbie (Aussie):

    We have a bunch of air portable water plants, just for this.

    They will be flying out over the next couple of days, manned by CAF personel

    It’s not like ordering an Uber, the USAF has stepped up with some Galaxies,

    but then, they go to Poland, and have to be trucked in.

  50. 50.

    Debbie (Aussie)

    @Traveller:

    I understand exactly where your rage and anger are coming from. It is totally impossible to understand the thinking behind genocide.

  51. 51.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy: Thanks for the link! I had not appreciated the importance of the reservoir & specifically the canals it feeds to agriculture in Southern Ukraine. However, as the Twitter thread notes, the impact will be mainly felt on the south side of the Dnipro, which is the Russian occupied part that has been formally incorporated into the Russian Federation following “referendum”. I am not sure how productive these areas have been since the re-invasion.

  52. 52.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @am: Sudden & rapid destruction of the Three Gorges Dam, especially if the reservoir is full, will kill millions or tens of millions (including the subsequent famines & plagues), displace hundreds of millions, & destroy a huge of swath of rice/aquaculture & industrial production in the Middle Yangtze Valley, w/ regions all the way to Shanghai directly impacted by flooding. China (& every other nuclear power in a similar position) will likely respond w/ nukes.

    OTOH, if war appears imminent the Chinese authorities may reduce the water level in the reservoir at the expense of power generation. Furthermore, the Three Gorges Dam is so massive that conventional weapons will probably just scratch the surface. It is a gravity dam, whereby the mass of the (steel reinforced concrete) dam sections themselves hold back the water, & damage to any one section does not affect the integrity of other sections. It is supposedly designed & built to withstand a direct hit by a tactical nuke. It will probably take a direct hit by a strategic nuclear warhead to cause the calamity described in the 1st paragraph.

  53. 53.

    YY_Sima Qian

    A short Twitter thread on historical precedents where flooding had been weaponized:

    Dan Snow
    @thehistoryguy

    The Chinese government deliberately flooded a vast area of its own territory in 1938, successfully halting a Japanese advance, but the price was massive causalities and damage to its own resources and reputation. Flood as a weapon of war.

    Thread….

    In ancient Chinese warfare, tactical flooding had been employed against besieged cities or enemy encampments going back to 2nd Century B.C.

  54. 54.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Andrya: The traditional Russian constitutional succession mechanism is the coup d’etat, and has been since 1917. The Politburo only “chose” leaders when the incumbent died in the chair, including when Stalin used his grip on the party bureaucracy to outmaneuver Trotsky after Lenin’s death. Beria was shot in a Lubyanka cell. Kruschev was ousted by a conspiracy. Brezhnev, Andropov, and Chernenko died of geriatric complications. Gorbachev set a kind of record, being ousted twice by two separate coups, one by the GKCP conspiracy, the other by Yeltsin’s Russia rebelling against the USSR. Yeltsin was practically in an alcoholic coma when Putin took over. And prior to 1917, Tsars succeeded each other when incumbents died (their passing occasionally assisted by conspiracy).

    There is, in Russia, no understanding even of the value of a stable institutional transition not based on imperial prerogative. There is only power. It is so because it has ever been so.

  55. 55.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: William of Orange broke the Siege of Leiden in 1574 by cutting the dykes over the Maas (a fortuitous North Sea storm is credited with an assist in getting the flooding to the required levels to achieve the military goal).

    And in the modern era the West has actually celebrated the 1944 feat of an RAF squadron (now known as the “Dambusters”), who flooded a large part of the Ruhr by destroying two dams using skipping bombs developed for the purpose. 1600 civilians were killed.

    The distinction with the Nova Khakovka breach isn’t really a moral one, in my view. It’s just that the Russians gain so little at such great cost. A minor military risk is zeroed out, which is no doubt the reason that MOD insisted on it now, but the human consequences are vast.

  57. 57.

    Geminid

    @Carlo Graziani: The military advantages gained are minor and transitory. It’s a scorched earth policy. If Russia cannot hold on to the portions of Ukraine it has stolen, they will try to wreck the place on their way out.

  58. 58.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Geminid:

    I agree, Putin wouldn’t be doing this if he is competent, rational, & confident of being able to hold on to his current gains. Of course, he & his underlings are probably not any of the three. Or it could just be massive incompetence by whoever was in charge of the dam.

  60. 60.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Geminid: There are multiple reports that russia is shelling evacuation points in Kherson. That is neither negligence nor incompetence.

  62. 62.

    Andrya

    @Carlo Graziani:   I don’t think we disagree.  I’d far rather live under a dictatorship where the Politboro chooses a successor to a guy who died of geriatric problems than one where the meanest, most cunning, most violent contestant wins out (the second process gave us Stalin, who was meaner, more cunning, and more violent than either of his rivals, Trotsky or Bukharin).  (Full disclosure- my father, though not a communist, had something of a connection to Trotsky through graduate work in history at Stanford in the late 1930s, when Trotsky was living in Mexico.)

    And Khrushchev?  I gave always assumed the dynamic was that after Khrushchev tried to blow up the world in 1962, other people in the Soviet system decided that he could not be allowed to continue.  If that is a conspiracy, it’s one I wholeheartedly support.  (More full disclosure:  in October 1962, I was 12 years old, living in San Francisco- definitely a target- and expecting to be incinerated on a daily basis.  You couldn’t depose Khrushchev fast enough for me!)

  63. 63.

    tokyokie

    @Carlo Graziani: The Dambusters Raid’s value turned out to be largely illusory. German industrial output was quickly restored to its pre-raid level, and most of the civilian deaths were of Polish slave laborers. But the RAF lost many of its most skilled Lancaster crews in the process.

  65. 65.

    Bill Arnold

    @YY_Sima Qian:
    This org does nuclear test ban monitoring; they have expertise.
    Seismic signals recorded from an explosion at the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine – NORSAR has analyzed seismic signals from regional stations in connection with the collapse of the dam in Ukraine on Tuesday night.
    (2023-06-07)

    Data from regional seismic stations show clear signals on Tuesday 6 June at 2:54 local time (01:54 Norwegian time). Time and location (position 46.7776, 33.37) coincide with reports in the media about the collapse of the Kakhovka dam. The signals indicate that there was an explosion.
    Magnitude estimate is between 1 og 2.
    The figure below shows signals from the Bukovina (BURAR) seismisk array, a station in Distance from the dam is 620 km.

  66. 66.

    Another Scott

    @Bill Arnold: It will be good to have confirmation of that interpretation.  The USGS earthquake pages usually don’t provide information on anything smaller than magnitude 2.0 because they are too small and there are too many of them. That said, the shape of the waveform gives characteristic information beyond the magnitude.

    Germany apparently has a very sensitive seismic network as well, but I haven’t seen any news about their measurements and interpretations.

    The USGS has a link to Kyiv’s station – I don’t know enough about the jargon to interpret what’s there.

    My dad had his own earthquake monitoring setup. He was out on his tractor when the “big” earthquake hit the DC area almost 12 years ago, so didn’t see it in real-time. ;-)

    Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  67. 67.

    Bill Arnold

    My dad had his own earthquake monitoring setup. He was out on his tractor when the “big” earthquake hit the DC area almost 12 years ago, so didn’t see it in real-time. ;-)

    I was in an office in a northern New York City suburb, and felt the motion very slowly back and forth. Was talking with people in Raleigh NC at the time and they were feeling the same motion, starting at the same time. Freaked me out a bit, wondering briefly about gravity waves of some sort. Turned out to be an earthquake midway between the two points.

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