Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Republicans: slavery is when you own me. freedom is when I own you.

… pundit janitors mopping up after the gop

A consequence of cucumbers

Battle won, war still ongoing.

Republican speaker of the house Mike Johnson is the bland and smiling face of evil.

I am pretty sure Katy Tur wasn’t always such a bootlicking sycophant.

There’s always a light at the end of the frog.

Republicans firmly believe having an abortion is a very personal, very private decision between a woman and J.D. Vance.

There is one struggling party in US right now, and it’s not the Democrats.

The revolution will be supervised.

Never give a known liar the benefit of the doubt.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

GOP baffled that ‘we don’t care if you die’ is not a winning slogan.

You are so fucked. Still, I wish you the best of luck.

Within six months Twitter will be fully self-driving.

They love authoritarianism, but only when they get to be the authoritarians.

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

We cannot abandon the truth and remain a free nation.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

I conferred with the team and they all agree – still not tired of winning!

SCOTUS: It’s not “bribery” unless it comes from the Bribery region of France. Otherwise, it’s merely “sparkling malfeasance”.

The words do not have to be perfect.

Tick tock motherfuckers!

How any woman could possibly vote for this smug smarmy piece of misogynistic crap is beyond understanding.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 470: Another Day, Another Russian War Crime

War for Ukraine Day 470: Another Day, Another Russian War Crime

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

We need to clearly call it what it is. And what it is is GENOCIDE!!!!

I have asked this before and I will ask it again now: at what point does never again! actually mean something as opposed to being an empty platitude?

We are now at the point where the big questions need to include a lot more rumination on our moral obligations and less on our strategic fears. That certain situations, certain events, certain acts such as what Russia has been doing for the past several days, leaving aside all the things they did building up to the last few days, that our appetite and tolerance for risk must increase to meet the moment. What good is it to be the global rule maker and rule enforcer, to be the hegemon if you will do little more than the bare minimum? What good is it to be the global rule maker, rule enforcer, and hegemon if you won’t actually move to enforce the global rules? At what point does strategic prudence and discretion give way to living up to our national values and to the public moralizing we constantly engage in? Failing to do more, failing to rise to meet the moment is what creates the opportunities for the Russians and the Chinese to out maneuver us across the global south. It is what allows Saudi Arabia, Iran, and violent extremist groups like ISIS and al Qaeda to constantly out maneuver us as well.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Russia is ruled by savages who themselves are the biggest disaster on the planet – address by the President of Ukraine

9 June 2023 – 00:32

Fellow Ukrainians!

Today was a very long, hard day. Kherson and the region, Mykolaiv region, cities and communities of our Dnipropetrovsk region. Conversations, meetings, evacuation centers, an international appeal.

First. We are working at all levels of state and local authorities to rescue as many people as possible from the flooded areas. The evacuation is ongoing. Wherever we can get people out of the flood zone, we do so. The State Emergency Service, police and military are doing a great job! I want to thank each and every one of you who are involved!

Second. There is a presence of international organizations on our free territory, and concrete assistance. In particular, it is the Ukrainian Red Cross and many others. I am grateful to every organization, every volunteer, every company that has really joined the rescue operation.

And it is obvious that the absence of some international organizations, such as the International Red Cross, in the disaster zone in the occupied territory, the absence of their assistance to our people in the occupied territory is wrong and is simply self-destruction for such organizations to my mind.

Third. Russian terrorists are trying to further aggravate the situation they have caused with their ecocide. This is absolutely deliberate. They continue to shell Kherson and the communities of the region, which have already been flooded by terrorists. They are even shelling evacuation points, which is a manifestation of evil that perhaps no terrorists in the world, except for Russian ones, have ever done.

The occupiers have completely abandoned people on the left bank of Kherson region to their fate. The catastrophe has been expanding there for two days now. And this is also an absolutely conscious choice of the Russian leadership. There is no one left in the world today who does not see that Russia is ruled by savages. Savages who themselves are the biggest disaster on the planet today.

Together with our partners, we must do everything for the world to prove that it can cope with such disasters, with such terrorists.

The situation with drinking water in our cities and communities. Leaders on the ground and in the government know the drill. We have solutions, resources and funds. We will do everything to provide people with drinking water despite this disaster. There may be inconvenience, but we will do everything. Today, I held a separate meeting on water supply and safety of people in the cities and communities of Dnipropetrovsk region – I was there personally. Kryvyi Rih, Marhanets, Nikopol, Pokrov and other communities – we talked about it.

The situation with infrastructure and environmental damage. The damage caused by the Russian act of terrorism is very significant, this is clear to everyone. But it should also be clear that there are no alternatives other than maximum recovery and maximum reconstruction. It may be Russia that will be left devastated after Putin, but not Ukraine.

And one more thing. Mandatory. Security. I am in constant communication with our military. The commanders of Khortytsia, Tavria, all those involved in the hottest areas. Donetsk region – very tough battles. But there is a result, and I am grateful to everyone who ensures this result! Bakhmut – well done. Step by step. I thank each of our warriors! Avdiivka, Maryinka, the entire east, the situation in the south, the situation after the Russians blew up the dam of our native Kakhovka – we see every detail. But it’s not time to talk about it today.

Thank you to our people!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here’s the full text of President Zelenskyy’s tweet:

Kherson region. From the Government and the State Emergency Service to the regional authorities and local communities, everyone is involved to the maximum extent possible to save and protect as many people as possible. And I thank everyone who saves and helps! Let’s take care of each other and Ukraine!

The Ukrainian MOD released this video of Moshe Reuven Azman, the Chief Rabbi of Ukraine. He was attempting to film a message and, as you can see, he was wounded when the Russians shelled the area.

WARNING!!!!! WARNING!!!!! GRAPHIC IMAGERY!!!!!! WARNING!!!!! WARNING!!!!!

All Clear!!!!!

The good news is he’s okay!

Full text of Rabbi Azman’s tweet:

Today, Russia fired artillery at us while I and other life-saving volunteers were driving all-terrain vehicles (SHERP) through the flooded areas of Kherson.

The explosions began when we were in the water. They were very loud and the shells fell very close to us, but the Almighty saved us.

Time to drag this thing out of storage!

Here’s the full text of Kristina Berdynskykh’s tweet:

Today I worked in Kherson near the water, it was quiet and peaceful. Many volunteers, rescuers, journalists from all over the world. Then the shelling began. Everyone was running away. I’m already out of town and safe #Ukraine

The Kyiv Independent‘s Illia Ponomarenko has a message for journalists and pundits, as well as some scholars and think tankers:

Here’s the full text:

I remember a moment in early March 2022, during the Battle of Kyiv. Russians were breaking into Irpin from the northwest, the Bucha-Vorzel side, and the Warsaw Highway.

There was an insane mess – lots of civilians leaving their cars behind and trying to make it across a destroyed bridge leading to Kyiv City with the help of the military.

And lots of pickup trucks with smiling Ukrainian Territorial Defense fighters rushing through the streets of Irpin towards the contact line to reinforce the military deterring the Russian push. Of course, it was loud as fuck, with artillery rounds whistling overheads.

And also reporters — many walking by themselves toward the kill zone, too. We were seeing each other in the streets of Irpin and waving greetings from a distance or getting together to talk a bit and move on.

Writers, photographers… Ukrainians, foreigners. Some were wearing vests and helmets and some were walking light-handed like myself. You see a person marked PRESS voluntarily and knowingly walking into that hell on earth – and you know that’s your brother or sister in dedication.

THAT was the real thing. That was the attitude and the nerve to go and see, to feel it, to learn to memorize, and then tell the world a little bit of how it really is to be at that gate of hell.

And that blind and primitive bothsidism we’re seeing these days… it’s just about the failure to do the job — to research, to care, to assume responsibility, and then to tell what you have to report on an issue, being ready to answer for the honesty of one’s work.

It’s very easy to just state, “this side says this, that side says that, look, we’re so awesome and objective.” This war is not a fucking soccer game in which both sides are morally equal and play by the same rules.

The world needs journalists not just for blindly reprinting whatever militaristic, propaganda-based dictatorial regimes have to say — but for finding out the real, right thing to stand for.

This is an excellent thread by Sam Greene, the Director of Democratic Resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) and a professor at Kings College London. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

First, the facts of the matter: Simonyan said on TV that Ukraine now has the capability to strike deep inside Russia, and that will grow with F16s, and the only way to reduce that threat is to hit the Western infrastructure that supplies Ukraine.

meduza.io/feature/2023/0…

/2 

Маргарита Симоньян предложила прекратить войну — потому что ВСУ «получат ракеты и будут наносить удары по нам» В провоенных телеграм-каналах пропагандистку обвинили в «пропаганде поражения» — MeduzaПрокремлевские СМИ и блогеры обсуждают слова главного редактора RT Маргариты Симоньян, которая заявила, что во избежание дальнейших обстрелов Белгородской области следует остановить войну и провести «…https://meduza.io/feature/2023/06/07/margarita-simonyan-predlozhila-prekratit-voynu-potomu-chto-vsu-poluchat-rakety-i-budut-nanosit-udary-po-nam
A Russian attack on the West, Simonyan continued, would provoke a Western attack on Russia, which would have catastrophic consequences. As a result, she suggested (more or less), Russia should accept a stalemate.

/3 
It’s hard to argue with her logic, in fact, and I’m certain that it reflects the views of some in the Russian establishment. Maybe even many or most.

It would be a mistake, however, to assume that it reflects the Kremlin’s position in any meaningful way.

/4 

As a piece of strategic communication, Simonyan’s statement reflects three objectives:
1⃣ Disrupt Western strategic narratives
2⃣ Maintain domestic constructive ambiguity
3⃣ Conduct reflexive public opinion research

/5 
First, disrupting Western strategic narratives. Broadly speaking – with the exception of a handful of analysts – the current Western consensus is that Russia will keep fighting until it either wins or loses outright. That has not always been the case, but it is now.

/6 
The crystallization of that consensus has underpinned both a commitment to support Ukraine for “as long as it takes” and a recognition, reflected in Blinken’s Helsinki speech, that the “it” must be a Ukrainian victory on Ukrainian terms.

ru.usembassy.gov/secretary-blin…

/7 

As a result, when arguments are made that the West should push Ukraine towards a negotiated settlement, they fail to resonate: most analysts and policymakers do not see a negotiating partner in Moscow.

Simonyan’s statement is meant to complicate that assumption.

/8 

This kind of ambiguity is a longstanding aspect of Russia’s foreign policy. It is designed to frustrate forecasting and force Western policymakers to prepare for a broader range of scenarios — maximizing Moscow’s first-mover advantage and minimizing its structural weakness.

/9 
Second, that same constructive ambiguity is useful at home, too. There are multiple camps within the Russian establishment, each with their own vision of the country’s post-war future. Putin has avoided telling people what that future may look like.

cepa.org/article/russia…

/10 

Maintaining that ambiguity lulls the Russian elite into a wait-and-see stance, but that requires credible signals that multiple trajectories are possible. By putting out a message that seems less than bloodthirsty, Simonyan is giving the relative doves reason to hope.

/11 
Ambiguity works a kind of magic on the Russian public, too. As @MaxAlyukov, @mzavadsk, @DrJadeMcGlynn and others have shown, rather than a single line to buy into, propaganda gives people a menu of options, from which they can construct the Z-meal most to their liking.

/12 
Allowing Russians whose support for the war is passive or grudging — such as many of those who recently explained their positions to @meduzaproject — is thus an important task of Russian propaganda.

meduza.io/feature/2023/0…

/13 

Даже некоторые читатели «Медузы» оправдывают вторжение в Украину. Мы попросили их объяснить почему. Вот что из этого вышло Многие эти письма физически больно читать. Тем не менее мы считаем их важным документом — MeduzaС первых дней вторжения «Медуза» подробно исследует — и опровергает — аргументы российской военной пропаганды (вот только пара примеров: раз, два). И хотя многим из нас ее тезисы кажутся нелепыми и не…https://meduza.io/feature/2023/06/03/dazhe-nekotorye-chitateli-meduzy-opravdyvayut-vtorzhenie-v-ukrainu-my-poprosili-ih-ob-yasnit-pochemu-vot-chto-iz-etogo-vyshlo
That, in turn, leads to the third strategic objective: research.

The reality is that, while the Kremlin has better access to the field than I do, it suffers from the same issues with data quality. Putin et al don’t really know what Russians think about anything.

/14 

As a result, many media messages — particularly when we see new ideas, arguments and framings emerge — are designed to elicit audience responses and thus to allow the Kremlin to get a better handle on cause and effect in Russian public opinion.

/15 
When we see an argument or a framing become dominant, we can assume that it has been audience-tested and shown to achieve the desired result. By the same token, when we see new arguments or framings pop up, we can assume that they are part of this testing process.

/16 
Simonyan’s time-to-talk argument may yet prove to have legs — but it won’t grow those legs until it has proved its worth to the propaganda machinery itself, and ultimately to the Kremlin.

/17 
In sum, when we see messages like this, we should ask three questions:
1⃣ What line of Western analysis does this message disrupt?
2⃣ What Russian audiences is the Kremlin trying to keep on board?
3⃣ What will the Kremlin learn from how the messages resonate?

/18 
Signals should be treated with extreme caution if:
1⃣ They are not accompanied by non-narrative evidence that prior analysis was wrong;
2⃣ They are not accompanied by material benefits to key audiences in Russia; and/or
3⃣ They do not dominate the discursive space.

/19 
Keeping these questions in mind should help us determine how to interpret Kremlin messaging and clue us into whether we ourselves might not be the target.

/END 

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Кожен буде жати, що посіяв… #херсонщина 💔

♬ оригінальний звук – Українська музика🇺🇦

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

Everyone will reap what they have sown… #Kherson region 💔

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

59Comments

  1. 1.

    MomSense

    My local yarn shop is doing another fundraiser for Ukraine. The videos of the flooding are devastating.

  2. 2.

    Omnes Omnibus

    Failing to do more, failing to rise to meet the moment

    What exactly do you propose?

  3. 3.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Omnes Omnibus: At this point the US and our allies and partners must move personnel in country to conduct Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Management Operations. Every single Civil Affairs bubba and bubbette should be mobilized – for the non-Omnes readers of this 90% of Civil Affairs Soldiers are US Army Reserve – and deployed as soon as possible. Given the amount of contamination the flooding has caused, the US Army’s CBRN brigade needs to be deployed. Combat engineering brigades need to be deployed. Medical elements need to be deployed. And the equivalents from our allies and partners. Especially as the International Non-governmental Organizations (INGOs) that should be mobilizing to respond are sitting on their hands.

  5. 5.

    Alison Rose

    at what point does never again! actually mean something as opposed to being an empty platitude?

    Unfortunately for too many people, “never” is apparently the answer.

    We are now at the point where the big questions need to include a lot more rumination on our moral obligations and less on our strategic fears … What good is it to be the global rule maker and rule enforcer, to be the hegemon if you will do little more than the bare minimum? What good is it to be the global rule maker, rule enforcer, and hegemon if you won’t actually move to enforce the global rules? At what point does strategic prudence and discretion give way to living up to our national values and to the public moralizing we constantly engage in?

    You know I agree wholeheartedly with this. We’ll hear from people who still want to believe we’re not already watching WW3 happening, but we are. I would ask them to delineate their lines, except they probably don’t have any. So long as it is other people being eradicated, other cities being decimated, other cultures being eliminated. If one imagines oneself to be a citizen of the world, one’s world must be greater than one’s own backyard. (And as Adam has noted above, there are numerous avenues we could be pursuing short of “boots on the ground”.)

    Letting loose a devastating flood and then bombing the people trying to escape. Sometimes I wish Jews believed in hell. On the other hand, I doubt even the devil himself wants russians by his side.

    Thank you as always, Adam. I know putting these together is difficult any day, but I imagine these past few have been some of the toughest.

  6. 6.

    Gin & Tonic

    I have read several reports to the effect that russian artillery strikes in Kherson today ( yesterday UA time) were efforts to kill Zelensky, who was in Kherson today.

  9. 9.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Omnes Omnibus: NATO has an entire Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Response and Management mission set. That said, yes. But it would mean putting uniformed US, allied, and partner nation personnel in country in an actively semi to non-permissive environment.

  13. 13.

    MisterForkbeard

    I have a hard time just reading these every day, because the Russian actions are so horrible. Props to Adam for having the fortitude to wade through it all and summarize it for us.

    I’m really hopeful we can send more support there. But I have a hard time thinking Republicans will allow it.

  15. 15.

    Eolirin

    @Omnes Omnibus: I am curious about the counter-factual in which our response to the Russian invasion was to take control over Ukrainian airspace and provide direct air support to their ground forces day one.

    The assumption has always been that this would have run unacceptably high risks of precipitating a nuclear exchange, but this strikes me as being far from a certain outcome; it’s entirely possible that our failure to have done that will worsen the risks of an eventual nuclear exchange. Non-profileration efforts are certainly going to be a lot harder now.

    And it is far from certain that Russia wouldn’t have just given up under those circumstances rather than try to engage in a conflict they’re guaranteed to lose far more decisively and humiliatingly, and perhaps most importantly, immediately, than they are to Ukraine.

    That would have saved a lot of lives.

  17. 17.

    Adam L Silverman

    @MisterForkbeard: McCarthy came out yesterday or the day before saying there wouldn’t be a Ukraine supplemental. The GOP hawks in the Senate, as well as those left in his own caucus in the House, were not happy. If one is pushed through, my guess is the Senate passes one with bipartisan support, pushes it to the House and it passes with all the Democrats and the House GOP hawks.

  19. 19.

    Another Scott

    A tweet with a Google Street View link of the road along the dam in 2015. One can see small sandbagged huts with Ukrainian flags at the road at the entrance on each end.

    This war has been going on for such a long time for them…

    https://t.co/sIug5NV8Qh looking at google street view and maps and compared to the "before" image the road and railway were already cut.

    — stop the spread, wear a mask and wash your hands (@trevsharp) June 8, 2023

    (via the Christopher Miller tweet thread above.)

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  20. 20.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: I am very sympathetic to your proposal, & presumably these non-front line combat formations will be deployed into the rear areas where they are unlikely to come in contact w/ Russia forces, & they will be minimally armed or unarmed, relying upon the Ukrainian Army/TDF for their security.

    However, I think the worst affected areas from the flooding are on the southern side of the Dnipro, or the side under occupation by Russia or dangerously close to the front lines.

    Furthermore, one would expect the Russians to take pot shots at these US/CEE units (I am guessing there will not be unity in NATO for such a course of action), or simply hit them by mistake (since Russian target has been both deliberately malicious & generally incompetent). How should the the US respond when that happens? I will probably say that, ultimately, Putin would not dare, since NATO will crush the badly depleted Russian military (that wasn’t great to start w/). On the balance, I think that is right, but I also understand why the Biden Administration would not want to risk having military units of nuclear armed powers directly engaging each other. I imagine that would be the calculation in most Western European capitals. Escalation into nuclear may be a low risk event, but a very high impact one.

  22. 22.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Eolirin: I have long argued Putin’s bluf should have been called. Failure to do so has given him a veto over our, our allies’, and our partners’ national security, defense, and foreign policies.

  23. 23.

    Adam L Silverman

    @YY_Sima Qian: If Russia opens up on a humanitarian mission, US, allied, partner, or INGO, then the gloves come off. Otherwise you simply embolden Putin and the Russians.

  24. 24.

    Adam L Silverman

    I’ve got to go get cleaned up and rack out.

    Catch everyone on the flip!

  25. 25.

    Ksmiami

    @Adam L Silverman: kick Russia out of the UN, out of any global security org we are in, cut off their internet and confiscate their significant financial assets outside of Russia. Fuck Russia it shouldn’t even exist in it’s current form.

  27. 27.

    Eolirin

    @YY_Sima Qian: And fear of that risk is enabling all of this insanity. If Putin or someone like him remains in power, at some point this is going to have to be grappled with, because Russia isn’t going to stop trying to take over their neighbors.

    The only circumstances in which they stop involves a different set of risks around complete collapse and loose nukes.

    And we’re teaching countries that if they can’t get into an alliance with a major power, they better get their own nukes, because that’s the only deterrent that’ll keep them safe. That’s a risk in and of itself when it comes to a possible nuclear conflict.

  28. 28.

    Eolirin

    @Omnes Omnibus: The line is drawn at Ukraine’s borders.

    Given what we now know about the state of the Russian military, it would have been a very short fight.

  31. 31.

    Eolirin

    @Omnes Omnibus: I honestly don’t think we would have needed more than air support, given how things turned out, but honestly, we should have treated them as if they were a NATO member. Whatever they needed that wouldn’t be a war crime.

  32. 32.

    Lyrebird

    @Eolirin: The line is drawn at Ukraine’s borders.

    Not sure I followed your hypothetical fully.  I think the core problem with NATO *combat* troops coming in – not the disaster response people Adam was talking about – is that then the RF might well say okay we really are being attacked by NATO, fine, now we get to bomb the shirt out of cities in Poland, Finland, Lithuania, etc.  Not an improvement, even if it would speed up Them Running Out of Bombs.

    Also, China.

  33. 33.

    Another Scott

    I’m reminded of Kosovo in 1999. NATO.int:

    NATO launched an air campaign, Operation Allied Force, in March 1999 to halt the humanitarian catastrophe that was then unfolding in Kosovo. The decision to intervene followed more than a year of fighting within the province and the failure of international efforts to resolve the conflict by diplomatic means.

    […]

    NATO’s humanitarian mission happened after the bombing campaign stopped.

    It’s hard to imagine Ergodon and Orban approving anything like that at the moment, and doesn’t NATO action have to be unanimous?

    Serbia is making noises that “Kosovo is Serbia” again… :-(

    Dunno.

    Here’s hoping that people around the world step up, even when governments are reticent.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  34. 34.

    Eolirin

    @Lyrebird: If they had done that they would have ceased to exist as a country, so it’s very far from a given that they would have.

    There was a risk there, sure. There was risk in not doing it too, and the devastation of Ukraine is part of the cost. I’m not convinced we chose wisely.

  35. 35.

    Kent

    @Omnes Omnibus:  Committing NATO combat forces? Once that is done, where do you draw the line?

    Just give Ukraine what it needs and they will take care of business.  F-16s, a couple of divisions worth of Abrams tanks, combat helicopters, etc.

  36. 36.

    Gin & Tonic

    For your entertainment, here’s that bozo RFK Jr acting, for all the world, like the student who was called on in class but hadn’t done the readings:

    RFK Jr: We killed 350,000 Ukrainian kids for a sham, something that — they are going and fighting believing that they’re fighting for their nation.
    Cavuto: We are not doing that, that is the Russians. pic.twitter.com/7gg5qSJ8qg
    — Acyn (@Acyn) June 8, 2023

  39. 39.

    Another Scott

    More on truck tires…

    A Russian channel complains about the quality of the tires used by military trucks, which is a particular problem in flooded areas. They say they can only replace the wheels after 52k km, but the tire below has only driven 42k km.https://t.co/IGsHoLG7mkhttps://t.co/dDIAHP6Gxg pic.twitter.com/i2eovwPLc7

    — Rob Lee (@RALee85) June 8, 2023

    Those might be non-optimal is Ukraine’s loamy lands…

    There’s an actual good reason why military stuff often is expensive, and a reason why it’s bad to steal everything that’s not welded down if you want to have a functioning military…

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  41. 41.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman:

    What good is it to be the global rule maker and rule enforcer, to be the hegemon if you will do little more than the bare minimum? What good is it to be the global rule maker, rule enforcer, and hegemon if you won’t actually move to enforce the global rules? At what point does strategic prudence and discretion give way to living up to our national values and to the public moralizing we constantly engage in? Failing to do more, failing to rise to meet the moment is what creates the opportunities for the Russians and the Chinese to out maneuver us across the global south. It is what allows Saudi Arabia, Iran, and violent extremist groups like ISIS and al Qaeda to constantly out maneuver us as well.

    At the risk of going off in a tangent, the West is getting out maneuvered by China, Russia (& India) in the Global South is not because of any Western action or inaction in Ukraine, but historical & current actions & inactions by the West in the Global South. The “rules based international order” does not have credibility in most of the Global South because: 1. the terminology is a fairly recent invention (seen as a self-serving one), 2. what they experienced during the Cold War was damaging interventions from the West (& the Eastern Bloc) driven by self-interest, & what they experienced post-Cold War was Western neglect or coercion (to reform along neoliberal lines, again driven by Western self-interest), 3. to the extent there was any rules or order in the international system, the Global South countries have not had any input in their creation, & the international organizations where they do have a voice (such as the UN & the WTO) have been consistently & overtly undermined or sidelined by the US especially (& other great powers, too, but they have been less overt in so doing).

    The “rules based international order” will continue to lack credibility in the Global South until there are actually consistent rules w/ commonly accepted enforcement mechanisms, & the Western countries start to hold themselves & each other accountable for their transgressions, as opposed to just the actions of their rivals/adversaries & non-aligned parties. China & India are not any better in behavior, but they tend to avoid the moralizing & proselytizing that is almost invariably counterproductive in the Global South.

    This is not to argue against your advocacy for greater urgency of action wrt Ukraine, but I think we should correctly diagnose the nature of the US’ & the West’s challenge in the Global South, & how US/Western actions/inactions in Ukraine will influence (or not influence) sentiments in the Global South.

  43. 43.

    Manyakitty

    @Adam L Silverman: exactly my question. In any other situation, we’d be there immediately with humanitarian aid. Instead we’re sitting on our hands because we’re still afraid of Russia? BULLSHIT.

  44. 44.

    Lyrebird

    @Eolirin: I’m not convinced we chose wisely.

     

    Sounds like you have good, well-informed company in those doubts.

    Every Ukrainian already had the right to be about 200% heartsick even before the dam destruction, so I don’t know what the level would be now!  All I know is, they are well versed in making choices between awful options, and I hope we support them even more strongly now.

  45. 45.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: If/when you have time, would appreciate your thoughts on this recent WaPo article:

    U.S. had intelligence of detailed Ukrainian plan to attack Nord Stream pipeline
    THE DISCORD LEAKS | The CIA learned last June, via a European spy agency, that a six-person team of Ukrainian special operations forces intended to sabotage the Russia-to-Germany natural gas project

    The specific plot apparently was placed on hold in Jun. 2022, but details seem align w/ the operation as executed in Sept. 2022. If the Nord Stream 2 attack was really a Ukrainian op, it seems to be a pretty reckless one. Germany was already weening itself off Russian gas, & Putin had already stopped selling gas to Germany due to the price cap imposed by the US & EU. Attacking infrastructure like that risked significant blow back in Germany.

    Naked Russian aggression & Russian atrocities in Ukraine have suppressed such questions, & the US & EU governments really do not seem motivated to investigate the operation. However, future recklessness will not always pay off like that.

  46. 46.

    NutmegAgain

    Regarding pulling out all the stops (as we should have done quite a while ago, but alas I have no power): I say, remember everyone celebrating the 100th birthday of Henry the K, war criminal and genocidaire extraordinaire this week? Including Samantha Powers, who heads up USAID these days–she fully excoriated Kissinger in her book, and still showed up at the fancy public party.  A bit of a prologue to say, while posturing of this sort is still the norm, how can we expect direct action? Not even counting the jackasses like Kennedy, plenty of chit-chat among the great and the good is so very both-siderish. The execrable level of falsity required to pretend the engagement is realpolitik is really nauseating, and for me anyway, the news of the flood and its damage–and now the fucking Russians firing on refugees from the dam!–has just made it all so, so clear.

    Also, Tim Snyder has a list of safe and helpful donation sites on his twitter feed.

  47. 47.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Eolirin: There is a reason the US & the USSR did not directly engage each other during the Cold War, especially after the Cuban Missile Crisis, even as Soviet arms were killing thousands of American GIs in Vietnam, & American arms were killing thousands of Soviet soldiers in Afghanistan. Escalation into nuclear war may be correctly deemed as low risk, but there is no oopsy do overs if you get it wrong, & the humanitarian/ecological/economic damage from any kind of nuclear exchange (including on Ukrainian soil) would be orders of magnitude worse than what Ukraine has suffered so far.

    I agree that Putin & company are bluffing when they constantly play the nuke card to warn against Western aid to Ukraine, & I fully support calling Putin’s bluff here. However, the escalation risk to nuclear war is orders of magnitude higher when the armed forces of nuclear powers are directly engaging each other, versus supplying arms to the enemies they are fighting. That is a risk, however low on an absolution scale, that I don’t see any Western government or population willing to countenance.

  48. 48.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @YY_Sima Qian: Also, assuming the US were willing to engage more directly, it would need to do so as a part of NATO and other member states may not be as willing to take those risks.​

  49. 49.

    Rebel’s Dad

    @Alison Rose: Some people don’t want to believe WWIII has already started because denial is comforting. Others do so because they expect a third world war to look like the other two did: neatly-drawn boundaries (Western and Eastern Fronts, European and Pacific Theaters), solid alliances (Central vs. Entente, Axis vs. Allies), clear objectives (Nazi lebensraum and holocaust vs. existential threats to the USSR, Poland, et al.)

    It’s understandable to expect history to follow lovely neat patterns because that gives us the illusion that we can predict what will happen. That’s not the case- most people before 9/11 did not expect the W administration to start a 20-year global war with shifting enemies and no clear objectives. So far in WWIII, we have only an expansionist Putin, who is a clear existential threat to Ukraine. It’s not clear where China, for instance, will land on the gameboard. We’re playing a game of chess, and we don’t even know how many pieces our opponent has, much less who our opponents are. And that’s very uncomfortable.

  50. 50.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Omnes Omnibus: I am guess that if the US was to engage more direction, it will only do so in partnership w/ the UK & select CEE countries. I don’t see unanimity in NATO for this course of actions, even leaving Hungary & Türkiye aside.

  51. 51.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @YY_Sima Qian: And that could break NATO which would create its own challenges.  I don’t see it happening.  Esp. as the Biden Admin has worked to keep everyone more or less on side, coaxing some forward and talking others down from more precipitous actions.

  52. 52.

    cain

    How could authorize that? How could Russians even follow that order? Just absolutely dastardly. To think that you would fire on helpless people fleeing from a disaster that you caused? Wow.. just wow.
    Fuck these people.

  53. 53.

    Chetan Murthy

    We all talk about military options, and sure, there are lots of dangers there.  But there are non-military things we could do, as an *alliance*, that could cause Putin endless hurt.  Endless pain.

    1. We could take away every asset in every Western country (or any bank in our financial system) linked to Russia, Putin, Russian oligarchs, or their family and helpers.  Every asset.  Give them to Ukraine *now*.  Fait accompli.
    2. Make Intrater (Vekselberg’s cousin, IIRC) justify every dollar he owns, just like any drug dealer must in civil asset forefeiture.  Seize the assets *first* and he gets them back when he can show he didn’t get them from Russia (and the people from whom he got them didn’t get them from Russia, etc).  Lather, rinse, repeat.
    3. We could round up every family member of Putin and his oligarchs, and send them back to Russia.

    Sure, some of them are American/British/ec citizens.  But the rest?   Yank their visas, send ’em on a plane.  Do it.  Do it.

    How long does Putin stay in power when all his oligarchs have all their assets in the West taken away irrevocably?  They all want to live in the West, raise their children in the West, house their mistresses in the West.  They can’t do that any longer.  They’ll have to actually *live* in Russia.

    So why don’t we do this?  Because (and this is to Adam’s point) we’re too busy getting rich off Russia’s trading, Russia’s bribes.  That’s why.  We could do this, and it’s completely non-military.  And there’s more: those oil tankers that falsify their travel logs?  Find ’em, seize ’em, sell ’em off.

    Russia’s a war criminal.  There is no reason why we should be giving Russia access to our financial system, to our societies, until they stop.  But Nooooooo, we want their money.

    Ukraine bleeds because we’re greedy fucks.

  55. 55.

    Spadizzly

    @Jinchi: RFK Jr. suffers from spasmodic dysphonia, a condition that causes involuntary spasms of the vocal cords.  I vividly remember his father’s assassination in ’68 and my heart goes out to him on that  level, but that said, he’s still an idiot.

  56. 56.

    Eolirin

    @YY_Sima Qian: This ignores the risks posed by blowing up any hope at maintaining non-proliferation in the face of successful nuclear blackmail by an aggressor, which are longer term but even worse in terms of that kind of risk analysis. Inadequate intervention isn’t free from risk either.

    And yes of course none of the countries who could have done anything about it were going to risk that kind of escalation. Putin likely wouldn’t have invaded in the first place if we hadn’t demonstrated an unwillingness to take that risk. I’m not saying another outcome was possible under the circumstances.

    But that doesn’t mean it isn’t wrong. Morally and strategically.

  57. 57.

    Spadizzly

    @Adam L Silverman:  Somehow I’m usually a day or two late in scanning the comments, but I don’t miss any of your updates and make a point of listening to Zelensky’s nightly addresses and tonight he expressed my exact thoughts regarding russia’s status as pestilence #1 on planet Earth.  They must be defeated.  FWIW, my wife and I were for imposition of a no-fly zone from day 1, but we’re biased due to our family connections to Ukraine.  That and $25 will get you on the subway.

    Anyhow, just wanted to thank you for your tireless efforts in assembling these updates.  Boruch hashem.  Slava Ukraini.

  58. 58.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Eolirin: NPT has been teetering since the US (followed by other nuclear powers) de facto recognized India as a nuclear weapons state & lifted sanctions, had essentially done the same wrt Pakistan, overthrew Saddam Hussein & Muamar Qaddafi (who were not developing nukes), & has refrained from attacking North Korea or Iran (who have nukes or is on the cusp). Ukraine is just continuing the slide. If anything, the massive military & financial aid the Western countries have provided to Ukraine reaffirm the US’ partnership commitments (Ukraine is not a treaty ally to the US or any of the NATO/EU countries), & should reduce the incentive for US allies to obtain nukes. OTOH, North Korea’s increasing arsenal & the US’ paralysis in response is causing South Korean elites to discuss acquiring nukes of their own. (BTW, I am not suggesting that the US should attack NK. It should recognize the reality that no one can force NK to disarm, recognize it as a nuclear power, adjust the alliance posture w/ SK & Japan accordingly, restart diplomacy w/ NK w/ maintaining regional stability as the objective.)

    We are discussing the specific scenario of what kind of humanitarian aid (from what kind of sources) the West should send to the flood zone along the lower Dnipro, the risks of direct engagement w/ Russian forces, & from there the potential to escalate to nuclear war. We have to consider whether the benefits are worth the risk.

    The West can call Putin’s bluffs elsewhere (he has made so many), that does not involving placing US/NATO troops where they can directly engage or be engaged by Russian forces.

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