Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

No one could have predicted…

A norm that restrains only one side really is not a norm – it is a trap.

Stamping your little feets and demanding that they see how important you are? Not working anymore.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

How stupid are these people?

This chaos was totally avoidable.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

She burned that motherfucker down, and I am so here for it. Thank you, Caroline Kennedy.

… pundit janitors mopping up after the gop

I see no possible difficulties whatsoever with this fool-proof plan.

This blog will pay for itself.

I’m more christian than these people and i’m an atheist.

People are weird.

I like political parties that aren’t owned by foreign adversaries.

We will not go quietly into the night; we will not vanish without a fight.

Narcissists are always shocked to discover other people have agency.

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

Yeah, with this crowd one never knows.

If you can’t control your emotions, someone else will.

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

Radicalized white males who support Trump are pitching a tent in the abyss.

Never give a known liar the benefit of the doubt.

The press swings at every pitch, we don’t have to.

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

You are here: Home / Open Threads / Count Wins, Not Polls?

Count Wins, Not Polls?

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Interesting idea.

An entire slate of MAGA-aligned candidates got blown out last night in a suburban / rural county in **Tennessee** that Donald Trump previously carried by 26 points.

⭐️

Seems like we had some other wins today.  Anyone want to share some wins?

(I am all talked out on our one big loss.)

Open thread

Reader Interactions

89Comments

  3. 3.

    Gin & Tonic

    A win? It was a gorgeous crystal-clear fall day here in New England, so my dear wife and I went for a drive with the top down, to a long walk on an isolated beach, and then a leisurely lunch at one of our favorite waterfront restaurants. If that isn’t a win, I don’t know what is.

  4. 4.

    SpaceUnit

    Polls have become a reliable indicator of what Republicans in corporate media boardrooms want us to think.

  5. 5.

    WaterGirl

    Is a $10,000 fine for Trump for violating his terms of release big enough?  At first i thought the judge should add a zero on the end, each time, but that probably wouldn’t fly.  But doubling?  I’m for that.

    $5k, $10k, 20k, 40k.  Chump change for a billionaire.  (hahahahaha)  Right?”

  6. 6.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    @Alison Rose: Wins don’t come every day. Polls do. This is the natural result of profit-driven 24 hour programming

    ETA: Even the bigger papers are adopting this model as readership moves primarily online.

  11. 11.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    @WaterGirl: We may want to workshop the message too. My personal excitement for seeing that in big print may not replicate reliably across the electorate.

  13. 13.

    Eduardo

    @WaterGirl: Once I realized this guy was going to be the Speaker I was filled with thoughts of doom.  Thank god I had work to do to distract myself.  But I am a pretty optimistic guy, so I thought the $10 K thing is a way of doing another check mark, then after 3 or 4 more they will throw his ass in jail.

  16. 16.

    WaterGirl

    We need to spread the word, far and wide.

    For those of you who don’t want twitter, here’s an image you can copy and share. You all know how to save images, right?

  17. 17.

    WaterGirl

    @Dorothy A. Winsor: That judge holds Trump’s business life in his hands.  (Unless Trump thinks he will win on the appeal he has pending.)  You would think he would stop being petulant and disobedient.

    I guess when your mental and emotional age is 8, that can be tough to do.

  18. 18.

    bbleh

    There are still some reliable polls, but there are also a lot of commissioned junk-polls designed to flood the zone and support almost any media producer/writer’s chosen narrative.  And polls happen a LOT more often than elections.

    Too many people believe things in numbers and tables just because they’re in numbers and tables.  And better still if they look like a computer just printed them out!

  20. 20.

    MobiusKlein

    @Eduardo: ​
     
    It was always going to be a R, which pretty much means was going to be a crap choice. Debating exactly which form of Stool is more palatable has limits.

  21. 21.

    WaterGirl

    @bbleh: The polls are telling people that Joe Biden is too old and that Biden has done nothing for them.  It’s genius!

    Just like the politicians pick their voters now, the pollsters now tell the people want to think based on the polls.  It’s backwards.

  22. 22.

    Trivia Man

    @WaterGirl: my favorite part of the gag order incident : he had to sit there and take it. Pretend it was just a misunderstanding.

    Judge: DOUBT

    Hard to be a tough guy sitting in that chair

  23. 23.

    Geminid

    @The Kropenhagen Interpretation: Not long after Rep. Michelle Steel voted for Jim Jordan as Speaker, California Democrats had a billboard up in her district with a picture of her alongside pictures of Jordan and Trump.

    You can see it in yesterday’s Politico article titled, “Orphaned by McCarthy, California Republicans stand alone.” Steele is one of 6 California Republicans in swing districts.

  24. 24.

    piratedan

    @WaterGirl: always comes back to the framing…

    we asked 1000 Republicans which was Joe Biden’s biggest failure:

     

    1. He’s Too Old
    2. Gas costs too much
    3. Inflation is too high
    4. He wants to take away mah gunz

    Then you get to see New Poll says Biden sucks @ 1,2,3 or 4

    How do these poll results make you feel about him running in 2024?

     

    bleh….

  26. 26.

    Eduardo

    @MobiusKlein: Good point.  I think I mourned that little hope I had for a few days that the non arsonists had it with the arsonists and my mind went straight to catastrophizing  about what is going to happen to this country if the Rs win next year.Also, this Johnson guy is breathtakingly awful.

    A few days ago, the liberal opposition won in Poland. And there will always be 1989 and 1991 to remind me that things get better.

  29. 29.

    Odie Hugh Manatee

    I read about this last night and it’s a wild story. The white nationalist/Nazi woman who lost has a bit of a backstory and her old man participated in a pride parade some years ago. It’s good to see that she got her clock cleaned, along with their other losses.

    Wins are what count, not polls.

  30. 30.

    Eolirin

    I just want to point out that while those Franklin TN results are a repudiation of ultra crazies, Ken Moore and possibly other winners, cause I haven’t checked them all, are also Republicans. This was an intra-party spat.

  31. 31.

    Brachiator

    President, uh, I mean Governor Newsom is in China doing photo ops.

    On Wednesday, Governor Gavin Newsom met with President Xi Jinping in China’s capital city of Beijing. The Governor also met Wednesday with Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Vice President Han Zheng and signed a new climate-focused Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the National Development and Reform Commission Chairman Zheng Shanjie. The Governor was joined by U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns for the series of discussions.

    Now, his visit was perfectly reasonable. But he clearly wants to look presidential.

  32. 32.

    eclare

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:

    I read some story where IIRC someone sent out small residual checks, we’re talking $5 or less, to a bunch of people.  TFG was the only guy who cashed his.  No matter how much or little, money matters to him.

  33. 33.

    Jeffro

    @WaterGirl: That judge holds Trump’s business life in his hands.  (Unless Trump thinks he will win on the appeal he has pending.)  You would think he would stop being petulant and disobedient.

    Or unless trump thinks he and his brownshirts goons are going all-in next time around, and he’ll be able to take back whatever the judge takes away.  He and many MAGAts feel the only thing they did on J6 was to not go far enough.

    Folks used to kid about trump leaving claw marks on the Oval Office doorframe, and about trump burning down the country to save himself.  Watching the House GOP today, it’s clear he would have many accomplices no matter how far he wants to go next time around.

  34. 34.

    Alison Rose

    @Brachiator: Or…he’s always been focused on climate change and the need for action to ensure the planet doesn’t immolate before his kids are senior citizens, and he’s doing the work he can to be part of that effort.

    His visit was indeed reasonable, and it was not about “photo ops” or trying to look “presidential”. It was about doing the job he has right now, leading the largest state in the nation, the almost-fourth largest economy in the world, one that can have a huge role to play in combatting the dangers of climate change.

    Is there a good chance he may run for president in 2028? Sure. But this trip is about him being governor now, not about him maybe being president in half a decade.

  35. 35.

    a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio)

    Local media was on the ball when it came to shining a strong light on the race in Franklin. Much of the work exposing the ugliness was done by the dean of Middle Tennessee muckrakers, Phil Williams (@NC5Phil Williams at the dying bird site, @[email protected])

    Here’s the series he did on this at the local TV station where he’s afflicted the wicked for many years.

    Franklin & Williamson County have no problem with Republicans, or with bigots, but Hanson and her crew were just a little too sloppy and a little too obvious for them; they prefer their public officials to display genteel bigotry, and she’d fit right in with Lauren Boebert. Also, she moved there from somewhere else, and to do that and play on the big stage you need some things she ain’t got.
    Besides the video at New Channel 5’s website, Phil’s tweets/skeets have a lot of eye-catching details.

  37. 37.

    a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio)

    @Eolirin: Very true! Most local elections here have no party affiliation listed; you have to read between the lines.
    And local media investigations made a huge difference here—with television reporters having a huge impact.

  38. 38.

    Geminid

    @Geminid: Besides Michelle Steele, the Politico article said Republican incumbents Mike Garcia, Young Kim, Ken Calvert, David Valadeo, and John Duarte are in “swing districts.” Duarte won by only 564 votes last year.

    There is a jackal in Calvert’s Palm Springs-based district. He hasn’t been commenting lately, but I hope he’s all right and returns for some on-the-ground reporting. Former prosecutor Will Rollins gave Calvert a tough race last year and I think Rollins can beat Calvert with a Presidential-year electorate.

  39. 39.

    Sure Lurkalot

    Glorious fall day in Denver. Went for a 7 mile walk with a buddy, it was so nice. The weather gets cooler every day setting us up for maybe some snow Saturday night. We haven’t had any precipitation since the middle of September!

    I wish it made up for the wackaloon the wackaloons voted in as SOTH.

  40. 40.

    SiubhanDuinne

    Active shooter(s) on the loose in Lewiston, ME. I don’t know precisely where our BJ Mainers live, but everybody be safe.

  42. 42.

    Odie Hugh Manatee

    @Dorothy A. Winsor:

    The big news out of this is that tfg was forced to take the stand, something that his attorneys have wanted to avoid due to the fact that their client is a serial liar. The orange asshole short-circuited that plan and now has been ruled to be “not credible” by a judge.

    Nice self-own on his part, as usual.

  43. 43.

    Ruckus

    @WaterGirl:

    How long does he have to pay the fine?

    I ask because any amount that he HAS to pay likely pisses him off and I think that is a very nice thing, to do.

  44. 44.

    Trivia Man

    @WaterGirl: no video, just artist sketches. And a verbatim transcript. “I was talking about Cohen”

    And the judge flat out said he isn’t credible so… ten thousand $

    (spoiler: that’s a lie)

  47. 47.

    FastEdD

    I have been calling Young Kim’s offices in DC and OC and giving them an earfull every time she votes for a MAGA idiot. Every time she does that I also donate to her opponent for next year, who has his act together right now and will be well funded and formidable.

  49. 49.

    twbrandt

    While I am by no means complacent about 2024, I am guardedly optimistic. Democrats and progressive causes have mostly out-performed the polls. Most people are pissed about Roe, and not on board with so much else of the right-wing agenda.

  50. 50.

    FastEdD

    I also read a story about a certain kind of beetle that gets swallowed by a frog and has figured out how to crawl through the frog and out the back end without being digested. 19 out of 20 survive. There is always light at the end of the frog.

  51. 51.

    Carlo Graziani

    It’s of a piece with the Great Red Midterm Wave that never happened. There’s just no teaching some people.

    As to wins, I can’t compete with G&T, but I did pick up some Estonian kielbasa at an Eastern European-ish grocery store near the lab, and turned it into a delicious kielbasa, cabbage, and bean stew according to this recipe, with the amendment of a few shakes of smoked paprika. It was remarkably good, and very comforting.

  52. 52.

    Wag

    Is this about the new Speaker?

    (I am all talked out on our one big loss.)

     

    If so, I think this is a short term ”win” for the GQP, and will

    end up as a long term win for us. 

  54. 54.

    Jeffro

    @FastEdD:There is always light at the end of the frog.

    Exactly!  It’s just that sometimes, you have to go through some shit first.

    I’ll see myself out…

  56. 56.

    zhena gogolia

    @raven: Sigh. On the way to work this morning, I was about to say, “Hey, there haven’t been any mass shootings lately.” I didn’t say it, for fear of jinxing. And I also thought, “There’ll be one before you know it.”

  58. 58.

    Punchy

    Mass shooting happening in Maine right now.  >10 dead already.  Im sure the NRA is so proud

    ETA –  I see its been mentioned.   Horrific.

  61. 61.

    schrodingers_cat

    A RWNJ becoming Speaker needn’t be our loss. We can at the very least make him an albatross around the necks of the so-called moderates Rs who won in the districts that Biden carried

    Making him a liability for the Republicans.

  63. 63.

    MomSense

    God fucking dammit.  My friend J is ok but she and her daughter are terrified.  Son’s girlfriend’s family is ok.  So worried for everyone there. Dear god why are we living like this?

  64. 64.

    MomSense

    @raven:

    City is still in lockdown.  Lots of rumors flying including other towns that may have had incidents.  Lewiston is where Bates College is.  Large Somali community there.  It’s about 25 minutes away.

  66. 66.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Jeffro: I don’t think Trump is even bothering to win in court any more. His game plan is to become President again, pull the strings to make it all go away and maybe have all these people shot.

  67. 67.

    Gin & Tonic

    @MomSense: Lewiston is also where Cassius Clay beat heavyweight champ Sonny Liston, resulting in one of the most iconic sports photos of all time.

  68. 68.

    Mike in NC

    Jesus. We used to hang out in Lewiston, Maine way back when my ship was in overhaul at Bath Iron Works (1981-82). Seemed like a nice quiet town. The last place I’d expect to be a free fire zone.

  70. 70.

    Punchy

    The shooter did nothing to hide his identity.  He’ll be ID’d shortly, and likely go out via suicide.  Or in hail of SWAT team bullets.

  73. 73.

    Brachiator

    Just seeing the news about what is happening in Maine.

    Terrible.

    The photo of what may be the suspect. Is he walking around?

    Just hope they catch him soon.

  74. 74.

    LAO

    My oldest nephew just signed a commitment letter to attend Bates next year, my brother (a federal agent and his father) just got dispatched to Maine to join the hunt for the shooter and my mother is having a heart attack.

    Im going to ask the question we all ask during a mass shooting: why are we living this way?

  76. 76.

    Lyrebird

    @LAO: ​
      Yikes! Best wishes to brother. And Bates is a super school.

    Heart breaks for the whole community though, and I fear that this was targeting asylees… the orange menace was demagoguing today I hear…

  82. 82.

    Another Scott

    Meanwhile, in Poland, … DW.com:

    “Finally, there’s a glimmer of hope for change,” said Wanda Kaczor, a 30-year-old resident of Warsaw.

    She voted for Poland’s New Left party in the October 15 parliamentary election. It wants to form a coalition with the opposition Civic Coalition and the Third Way party, a grouping that could end up commanding a majority of seats in Poland’s lower house of parliament and supplant the conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS) government.

    Kaczor and many other Polish women hope this new coalition will do more to strengthen women’s rights. Among other things, they want to see a liberalized abortion law. Three years ago, the ruling PiS party adopted a highly restrictive abortion law allowing pregnancies to be terminated only in cases of rape or when the woman’s life is in danger — changes that triggered major protests across Poland.

    [ image ]

    Wanda Kaczor is a progressive Catholic who supports abortion rights Image: Monika Sieradzka/DW

    “I am Christian, and yet I am in favor of freedom of choice,” Kaczor told DW, adding that some see her as an extreme leftist because she took part in the 2020 protests against the PiS abortion law. Kaczor works as an editor for the Catholic Magazyn Kontakt magazine, and has been active in a progressive Catholic intellectual group for years.

    Although Kaczor feels strongly connected to the Catholic Church, she supports the right to terminate pregnancies up until the 12th week. “Surely that wouldn’t lead to all women suddenly having abortions,” she said. “The restrictive [PiS] law does more harm than legalizing abortion.”

    […]

    (Google tells me that Poland is 85.9% Catholic.)

    Good, good.

    Good people win when they get informed, stand up, and get involved.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  83. 83.

    Punchy

    Theyve ID’d the murderer. It surprises no one that he was ex-military, and despite a known and serious mental condition, he was allowed to be a firearms instructor.  Probs why he was so effective at shooting others.

    This shit makes me sick.  Kids bowling got attacked.  Scarred for life.

  84. 84.

    Lyrebird

    @LAO:

    Probably too late, and maybe also tone deaf, but I am sure your nephew will do great there, and Mainers are gonna need our love even more in the next few months and years.

    But yeah this is awful.

  85. 85.

    prostratedragon

    Post from Bates College, late Wednesday afternoon:

    The stage is (nearly) set for the Inauguration of Garry W. Jenkins as the ninth president of Bates College. We are filled with anticipation for Friday’s festivities!

    Learn more about President Jenkins, the ceremony, and how you can watch live at bates.edu/inauguration

    Jenkins is the college’s first black president.

  86. 86.

    Barry

    @WaterGirl: “That judge holds Trump’s business life in his hands.  (Unless Trump thinks he will win on the appeal he has pending.)  You would think he would stop being petulant and disobedient.”

     

    The one constant in Trump’s life is that the law is overwhelmingly for the little people.

  89. 89.

    fancycwabs

    I hate to burst anyone’s bubble, but everyone running in those races was a Republican–this isn’t some big win for progressivism, just a repudiation of actual Nazis (who might have won had it not been for a months long campaign by a local journalist showing, repeatedly, that they were Nazis).

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