Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Stop using mental illness to avoid talking about armed white supremacy.

There are more Russians standing up to Putin than Republicans.

GOP baffled that ‘we don’t care if you die’ is not a winning slogan.

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

One of our two political parties is a cult whose leader admires Vladimir Putin.

“The defense has a certain level of trust in defendant that the government does not.”

Do not shrug your shoulders and accept the normalization of untruths.

I conferred with the team and they all agree – still not tired of winning!

It’s all just conspiracy shit beamed down from the mothership.

If you are in line to indict donald trump, stay in line.

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

I’m sure you banged some questionable people yourself. We’re allowed to grow past that.

Trump makes a mockery of the legal system and cowardly judges just sit back and let him.

Chutkan laughs. Lauro sits back down.

Nothing worth doing is easy.

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The Giant Orange Man Baby is having a bad day.

A thin legal pretext to veneer over their personal religious and political desires.

If you still can’t see these things even now, maybe politics isn’t your forte and you should stop writing about it.

I also would like a pony to improve my balloon juice experience.

I was confident that someone would point it out and thought why not me.

Battle won, war still ongoing.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 682: Russia’s Bombardment of Ukraine Continues

War for Ukraine Day 682: Russia’s Bombardment of Ukraine Continues

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Screen shot of new artwork by NEIVANMADE. The background is black. In the bottom foreground are grey Ukrainian homes and apartment buildings being bombarded by red Russian missiles with the Special Military Operation "Z" symbol on them. Above the missiles, written in red is the word "Ruzzians". Below the buildings being attacked is the statement "Turns Homes Into Graves".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

As has become all too commonplace, we begin tonight with reports of Russia’s ongoing bombardment of civilian targets in Ukraine.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

We will rebuff every manifestation of Russian terror – address by the President of Ukraine

6 January 2024 – 18:33

Wishing you good health, dear Ukrainians!

It’s been a long day today with many meetings. We are planning for the upcoming week – crucial international events. We are preparing new lines of cooperation with partners, particularly regarding drones, strengthening our capabilities in drone usage, and countering Russian drones, enhancing Electronic Warfare (EW) capabilities. I held discussions on security guarantees – one of our key priorities. Bilateral work with partners is ongoing, and today, we outlined the results we aim to achieve shortly. I also had meetings with the defense government unit – the Minister of Strategic Industries, the Minister of Defense, and the ministries’ teams. The key focus is to ensure our soldiers equipped with weaponry and military technology. We are committed to continuous supply and production with a clear trend towards increasing our production of ammunition and equipment in Ukraine and in collaboration with our partners.

We are working tirelessly so that this year, our defense and security forces can rely mostly on our Ukrainian production in their actions. We want the enemy to feel the real power of Ukrainian weapons. The sense of this is already shaping. Many successful things are done with Ukrainian weapons, and the occupiers have fewer and fewer peaceful nights. The strength of our Ukrainian forces must be much greater. It will happen. We will rebuff every manifestation of Russian terror, every attempt by Russia to increase its pressure on our state, our people, our positions.

During these hours in Pokrovsk, Donetsk region, and in the Pokrovsk district, a rescue operation is underway after a Russian missile strike, specifically S-300 missiles. Necessary rescue forces and equipment from Ukraine’s State Emergency Service are engaged in the relief operation, clearing debris. As yet, it is known about over ten people, unfortunately including children, who have tragically lost their lives. My condolences go out to everyone who has lost their loved ones! The Russian strike targeted ordinary residential buildings and private houses. All the wounded are receiving the necessary aid. Russia must feel – always feel – that no such strike will go without consequences for the terrorist state. We must ensure this with our strength, our own defense, and political capabilities.

And one more thing.

I want, as always, to commend our soldiers on the front lines – each and every one, on combat posts, carrying out combat missions, and currently in battle. All those who help, volunteer, train, and work to save every wounded person. Immense gratitude to all! Today, I especially want to recognize Ukrainian border guards who, together with all the defense and security forces, are fighting on the battle lines to protect our state and independence. They have shown exceptional effectiveness in these weeks – both before the New Year and now. Special thanks to the border guards from Kharkiv and Kramatorsk units. Thank you, warriors, for your strength! Staff Sergeant Valeriy Buhor and Captain Ivan Taran involved in battles near Bahmut. Maryinka direction. The Zhytomyr border unit, including Senior Sergeant Oleksiy Shlapakov. Thank you for your courage and accuracy! To the Steel Border brigade’s warriors near Kupiansk, engaging in intense battles with crucial results. Soldier Mykhailo Savchenko, Junior Sergeant Bohdan Kachkovsky, and Senior Sergeant Yevhen Hladkov. Well done!

Glory to all who are fighting! Glory to all who contribute their strength to the strength of our state!

Glory to Ukraine!

Russian assets currently frozen abroad total around $300 billion. They must be put to use in support of Ukraine.

This is a historic opportunity to make the terrorist state pay for its terror. The Russian elite and leadership do not care about human lives, but they do care about money above all else.

For them, losing assets will be the most painful loss. They will sense the true strength of the international community and see that the world is stronger than terror.

The decision to use frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine will be an entirely just and legitimate response to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. It will send the right message to all would-be aggressors around the world: attacking another state does not pay off; it makes the aggressor pay.

I encourage partners to move quickly on relevant legal frameworks. This year, we must achieve tangible progress toward using frozen Russian assets for the benefit of Ukraine. We firmly rely on G7 leadership on this matter.

 

Unfortunately, this is unlikely to happen.

In 2023, 🇺🇦 Air Force destroyed 3800 russian air targets:
– 887 cruise missiles;
– 15 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles;
– 41 other ballistic missiles;
– 2691 Shahed UAVs;
– 35 Lancet drones;
– 131 Orlan and other drones.

Our brave warriors made an amazing job in 2023.
We are grateful to our international partners who help Ukraine in strengthening our air defense capabilities.

More great achievements to come in 2024. Believe in Ukraine’s air defense!

Unfortunately, the US is not going to be able to step up in 2024 the way it did in 2023.

⚡️NYT: US faces missile supply shortage for Ukraine’s Patriot air defense systems.

White House and Pentagon officials have warned that the U.S. would soon be unable to keep Ukraine’s Patriot air defense system batteries supplied with interceptor missiles, the New York Times reported on Jan. 6. Patriot systems have been crucial for repelling Russian air attacks across the country.

 

⚡️US official warns of ‘dire’ situation with Ukraine aid.

Shalanda Young, the director of the U.S. Office of Management and Budget, warned on Jan. 5 about the rapidly diminishing time that Congress has to replenish U.S. aid for Ukraine, the Associated Press reported. “I’m very concerned that it’s not just the United States’ resources that are necessary for Kyiv to stop Putin,” she said. “What message does that send to the rest of the world? And what will their decisions be if they see the United States not step up to the plate?”

 

This is what it says:

Professor Snyder is correct.

As is French journalist Elsa Vidal:

According to French journalist Elsa Vidal, of course our govts deliberately starved Ukraine of the most decisive types of weapons — this needs to be universal knowledge now — but she goes further into the interpretation, which is interesting. She believes it’s our fear of Russia collapsing following a proper defeat. She also fingers @RANDCorporation for being responsible for promoting the cynical policy goal of aiming for neither defeat nor victory in Ukraine.
Additionally, and that’s also a diagnosis I made on this platform, she notes that aiming for a stalemate to begin with was necessarily going to make sustaining the political will to support Ukraine more difficult.
And, in my view, it’s on that latter point that we really see the problem we have today, with the U.S. losing heart and resolve at the level of the entire country. Because the policy was not some kind of “golden middle” worked out by geniuses, but a costly and bloody and cowardly middle-of-the-road trajectory at a time in history that requires decisiveness.

Vidal concludes, like entire governments in the eastern half of Europe, like many parliamentarians across all of our nations, like hundreds of experts on the region and on military affairs, that we must aim for victory.

I would very much like to know how often RAND’s in house quisling Samuel Charap’s name appears on the White House visitor’s logs beginning in Fall 2021.

The House Republicans have a new strategy to kill their hostages – actually funding the US government so it doesn’t close down on 19 January and 2 February respectively, aid to Ukraine, aid to Israel – they want their extremist, xenophobic anti-immigrant/anti-immigration bill, HR 2, to be passed through the Senate and signed into law by President Biden with no revisions, changes, and/or amendments. That’s what the past week’s stunt by the House GOP caucus was about.

The Ukrainians are not going to stop defending themselves and working to liberate all of their territory occupied by Russia regardless of what the US does. However, it would be much easier with the US’s help. That help is unlikely to come anytime soon.

In the meantime, Russia is ramping up its production. The Financial Times has the details.

Loaves are not the only things coming hot off the production line at the Tambov Bread Factory in central Russia — and western sanctions authorities are taking notice.

Tambov’s bakers were put on a US blacklist in December for assembling small drones on the premises that Russian troops use in President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

Their efforts have made the bakery a poster child for the Kremlin’s drive to engage civilian industry in producing for the front lines as the war increasingly dominates Russia’s economy.

In a state television report from the wholesale bakery, a factory boss showed off half a dozen Bekas drones next to an array of freshly baked loaves. “They even smell like fresh bread!” said Russian journalist Alexander Rogatkin holding up one of the unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and sniffing it.

The Tambov factory first began assembling the drones in February 2023 using a 3D printer that makes carbon frames, as well as antenna and camera holders, according to interviews with the bakery’s managers on Russian state media.

Most of the components for the Bekas are purchased online, allowing the bakers to keep costs between Rbs25,000 ($270) and Rbs50,000 per drone. Tambov now makes about 250 drones a month, as well as accompanying camouflage backpacks, according to the bakery.

Putin has framed the surge in defence spending as a breakthrough for Russia’s industry that has helped the country weather western sanctions during the war.

“The factories of Moscow, St Petersburg, the Urals, Siberia and the Far East — dozens of regions of our country — are working at full capacity in multiple shifts,” Putin said at a November event celebrating Rostec, Russia’s main defence conglomerate. “In today’s conditions this gives an absolutely unique impulse to develop high-tech spheres of production, not only in defence, but in related civilian industries as well,” he added.

War-related industrial output has risen 35 per cent compared with the period leading up to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, while civilian production has remained flat, according to research published by the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies. In some industries, such as electrical equipment and automotive manufacturing, the boost in war-related output has compensated for falling production of consumer goods.

More than 500 light industrial companies have switched to making equipment for the military, Russia’s trade ministry said in February 2023, adding that it expected them to produce four times more for the army that year than they did in 2022.

In Naberezhnye Chelny, a town in west-central Russia on the Kama river, an ice hockey stick workshop has switched to making bulletproof vests. A glamping tent company in Chelyabinsk, an industrial city in the Urals, is now producing sleeping bags and tents for the battlefield. In Voronezh, Russia’s southern farming heartland, an agricultural equipment factory is churning out everything from demining equipment and binoculars to anti-drone defences.

First-person view (FPV) drones have become increasingly important to both sides in the war, leading to more than 100 volunteer efforts focused on UAVs popping up across Russia.

Some of the newly minted drone-makers have said they were asked to pitch in by Russian authorities — the Tambov bakery’s owners have close ties to local government, while the baker in charge of the effort is a lieutenant-colonel in Russia’s reserve army.

“The Russian government has signalled its intent to subsidise drone production in the coming years. Chinese-manufactured 3D printers apparently retail in Russia for the rouble equivalent of a few hundred dollars,” said Allen Maggard, a Russian defence industry analyst at US think-tank C4ADS. “The combination of the low acquisition cost of 3D printers and the assurance of state subsidies might make transitioning to drone production an irresistible prospect for companies.”

Others, however, are amateur drone enthusiasts apparently motivated by a sense of patriotic duty, who share designs and specifications in groups on social media app Telegram and crowdfund to raise money for the FPV drones.

“What you are witnessing is a window into the whole-of-society, large-scale volunteer effort across Russia,” said Samuel Bendett, an expert on autonomous weaponry at the Center for Naval Analyses.

The Bekas drones’ small size means their combat potential is limited as they can only carry a 3.5kg load up to 5km. This makes them more suitable for anti-personnel operations than the larger Lancet drones, which are used to target Ukrainian armour and fortifications, or the Iran-made Shaheds deployed for strikes on Kyiv.

But the ease of producing the Bekas at scale — the factory claims to have spawned eight copycats — boosts Russia’s arsenal of kamikaze loitering drones significantly, Bendett added. “All of this obviously adds up.”

Even simple, low-cost weapons such as the Bekas drones are as reliant on foreign-made components as much of Russia’s high-tech military production, said Pavel Luzin, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington. “The only Russian thing there is the Bekas sticker,” he added.

The drones’ simple design and specification means tracking their supply chain is difficult: Russian customs records for the Tambov bakery and an affiliated company that produces the drones come up empty. Chinese 3D printers are particularly difficult to track because their components are usually shipped separately, Maggard said.

More at the link!

There is a bit of good news out Poland:

The Polish government has signed an agreement with the protesting farmers, which should end the blockade of the “Medyka-Shehyni” checkpoint with Ukraine.

The agreement includes: the launch of corn subsidies in the amount of PLN 1 million, increasing the credit for liquidity loans by the amount of PLN 2.5 billion and maintaining the amount of agricultural tax at the level of 2023.

https://polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2024-01-06/przelom-w-sprawie-protestow-na-granicy-rolnicy-zawieszaja-dzialania/

Hryshyme, Russian occupied Crimea:

An update on the Ukrainian strikes on Saky and Yevpatoriya, Russian occupied Crimea:

The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine informs that on January 4, 2024, a complex special operation was carried out on the territory of Russian-occupied Crimea.

The targets of the attack were the Russian radar positions at the airfield in Saki and an ammunition depot near the settlement of Hryshyne. Coordinates of the 2nd target:

45°38’10″N 33°50’23″E

The attached picture shows precise impacts on the warehouse and buildings around it. Information on Russian losses is currently under investigation.

Source: https://t.me/DIUkraine/3287

#Ukraine #Crimea

 

 

Point of view on the Crimea 4/5 January attacks by a source that quite often publishes insider information regarding Russian military. I advise to take it not at face value, but as a data point for drawing up an overall picture of the events:

“Regarding the attack in Crimea (04-05.01.2024).

On January 4, 2024, a large-scale attack was carried out on the territory of Crimea.

At lunchtime, due to the activity of tactical aviation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, an “Aircraft Danger” signal was announced on the territory of Crimea.

At 17:00, information began to arrive that ten cruise missiles were approaching the airspace of the peninsula.

At 17:12, a strike was carried out on an object on the territory of the settlement. Uiutne, near Yevpatoriya. The target was the radar unit of the 31st Air Defense Division of the Russian Aerospace Forces. As a result of the strike, the radar and communications center were destroyed. There are serious problems with the ability to conduct radar reconnaissance in the region. Three conscripts were reported injured.

The strike was carried out by a single Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missile.

At 17:18, a strike was carried out on an object on the territory of the city of Sevastopol. The target was the protected command post of the 31st Air Defense Division of the Russian Aerospace Forces (military unit 03121, Sevastopol). As a result of the strike, 12 servicemen of the Russian Aerospace Forces were killed and another 9 were injured. In total, more than 80 division soldiers were trapped under the rubble. Among the lists of the dead, one serviceman with the rank of “general” appears, however, his last name is not indicated (this refers to rumors about the death of Gerasimov, although I believe that these are just rumors). Also, the death of the commander of the 3rd radio technical regiment of the Russian Aerospace Forces was confirmed. As a result of the strike, the division’s communications center was destroyed.

The strike was carried out by two Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles.

It is noted that during the attack, the Ukrainian Armed Forces first used false decoy missiles. The type is currently being established, there is reason to believe that it was “ADM-160A”. Which were already followed by the “Storm Shadow”.

Then at about 23:30, a UAV attack was carried out on the territory of the Pervomaisky and Saky districts. About 35 attack drones are reported to be used. At the moment, I do not have information about the damage caused by the UAV. However, it is worth noting the successful work of the air defense. For the most part, the UAVs were suppressed by electronic warfare. There are no serious “hits” observed.

On the night of 01/05/06/2024, the Saki airfield was attacked. The command post of the 43rd Separate Naval Assault Aviation Regiment (military unit 59882) was reported to have been hit. As a result of the strike, four soldiers of the regiment – 200. There is no information about the wounded.

The strike was carried out by four Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles. Two of them were intercepted by air defense forces. Two reached their goal.”
https://t.me/dosye_shpiona/470

The Olekshi Forest, Kherson Oblast & the Zaporizhzhia front:

Kryvorivnia:

Belgorod Russia:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos, so here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

53Comments

  1. 1.

    Gin & Tonic

    Here’s a somewhat less pessimistic take:

    After ten years of war with every advantage, Russia controls only18% of Ukraine, has failed to achieve air superiority, its Black Sea Fleet is retreating from Sevastopol, over 330K killed and wounded, and they are begging North Korea for ammunition. Who’s losing? https://t.co/b6Nxn4iYe3
    — Ben Hodges (@general_ben) January 5, 2024

  2. 2.

    Gin & Tonic

    And here’s a weirder take – pedophile Scott Ritter goes to Chechnya and gives a pep talk to Kadyrovites:

    Scott Ritter giving a pep talk to Kadyrov’s soldiers and wishing themvictory in Ukraine, “as a fellow soldier,” is indeed one of the most surreal videos of the war. And yes, his Russian is pretty mangled. https://t.co/la4nbpIItF— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) January 6, 2024

    Why is it that so many of the well-known vatniks are sexual abusers and weirdos?

  3. 3.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Gin & Tonic: I don’t disagree with LTG Hodges, I don’t think Ukraine is losing. What I think, and what I think I’ve been clear about for a while, is that the US’s policy and the strategy to achieve it has been to ensure that Ukraine cannot lose, but also that it cannot win. At least not on the terms the Ukrainians have set for themselves and how they’ve defined what victory is. And, as US aid runs out and the EU continues to dither, it will be harder and harder for Ukraine.

  7. 7.

    Lyrebird

    @Gin & Tonic: Thanks for your additions, and happy Epiphany!

    Why is it that so many of the well-known vatniks are sexual abusers…?

    Sadly there are of course some abusers in every group, but it sure seems like extreme abilities to lie to oneself and or extreme cruielty are required to be a vatnik now , so it fits.

  9. 9.

    Nukular Biskits

    Interesting point with respect to what French journalist Elsa Vidal had to say about Western nations intentionally not providing Ukraine with sufficient means to outright defeat Russia.

    I had not considered that before but it is entirely plausible.

    Thanks for bringing that to my attention, Adam.  It makes all the lip service given by my senior US Senator, Roger Wicker, suspect.

  10. 10.

    Alison Rose

    I don’t even know what to say. We (meaning the West in general) didn’t do enough early on and now it’s a cacophony of “wah wah we just can’t do it” or “lol we don’t care” while Ukrainians are dying every day. Sometimes I think it might’ve been a mistake for God to give humankind free will.

    Well. Here is a lovely night photo of St Sophia Cathedral in Kyiv.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  12. 12.

    frosty

    @Gin & Tonic: @Adam L Silverman: Both of your comments seem on the money. Russia isn’t winning and Ukraine isn’t losing, but the US is failing to help Ukraine win. Reading about this and the Republican House fuckery is really depressing.

    OT question for both of you, though. I read Timothy Snyder’s newsletters and he’s asking for donations through United24 for Safe Skies. In small print at the top it says “Total collected: $ 593 812 195” which is far more than the amount needed for the Safe Skies sensors.

    Is this a good site to donate to? Any idea if the $593 million is correct and connected to Safe Skies?

    I am highly supportive of Dr. Snyder. I read Bloodlands many years ago and it changed my perspective on WWII in the east.

    (I’m going to log off for an hour or so but I’ll be back later. Thanks for any insights.)

  13. 13.

    Jay

    Anton Gerashchenko
    @Gerashchenko_en
    10h
    The video shows Russian soldiers being held in a “pit”. Some are punished for alcohol abuse, and some for refusing to go to their positions. To leave the “pit”, commanders demand to pay an amount ranging from $1,650 to $11,000 a head. Reportedly, some soldiers have been there for months. Only few get out of there – those who can sell an apartment or a car.

    The video was filmed by “commanders” of Russian “soldier-slaves” in the Bakhmut direction, Donetsk region.

    https://nitter.net/Gerashchenko_en/status/1743678531622568047#m

  14. 14.

    Anoniminous

    Rumors floating around Ukrainians have made a leap and started manufacturing the next generation of drones.  Some supposedly have a 600 km range and nine hour loitering time.  It would be nice if the PRC would sell them the PL-17 air-to-air missile with a reported 400 km range.  Together it would create a weapon system to take on the Tupolev bombers. 

    Not going to happen anytime soon – if ever.

  15. 15.

    Gin & Tonic

    @frosty: I do not closely follow the various fund-raising mechanisms, since I have different routes, but United 24 is an official UA government channel.

  18. 18.

    db11

    Thanks again Adam for your ongoing efforts.

    Wondering if you have any thoughts on Lloyd Austin’s weird 3 day ‘disappearance’ for medical treatment without informing anyone

    ETA: Wouldn’t this be a severe breach in the continuity/integrity of the chain-of-command?

  23. 23.

    CCL

    @frosty: thanks for asking about United 24.  I dumped some dollars into the BJ fund act blue bucket…but have been feeling the need to do more…love WaterGirl’s fund raisers…does anyone know if there are plans for another one coming up?

  25. 25.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @db11: A stunning summary by Shashank Joshi (links to the relevant articles in the Twitter thread:

    Wow. Loyd Austin was hospitalised & unable to perform duties from January 1st to 5th. “Amid tensions in the Middle East … Austin was hospitalized, including spending four days in the intensive care unit.” And remained in hospital as of last night.

    So @DepSecDef oversaw the Baghdad strike? “While Austin has been hospitalized, the U.S. conducted a rare and controversial strike against a senior Iranian-backed militia member in Baghdad,”

    Remarkable if true. “The Pentagon did not inform senior officials in the White House’s National Security Council of Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s hospitalization until Thursday — three full days after he arrived at Walter Reed Medical Center”

    “Austin’s hospitalization was a closely guarded secret, kept from even senior Pentagon officials and congressional leaders until just before the public statement…Some Pentagon officials only learned of Austin’s situation through Ryder’s news release”

    What a surreal story. “Alex Ward @alexbward: One DOD official said their office was told by Austin’s aides that the secretary was working from home for the week –– even though SecDef was in the hospital.”

    “Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks, who took over when Austin was hospitalized, was also away. A U.S. official said she had a communications setup with her in Puerto Rico that allowed her to do the job while Austin… was incapacitated.”

    “The Pentagon Press Association, which represents media members who cover the Defense Department, sent a letter of protest on Friday evening to Ryder and Chris Meagher, the assistant defense secretary for public affairs” https://apnews.com/article/defense-secretary-lloyd-austin-hospitalized-secrecy-disclosure-6ff0ee7eddfde1231453f96774788642

    This more than embarrassing. SecDef Austin was incapacitated for a few days, AssSecDec Hicks was on vacation in Puerto Rico acting in his stead, & told no one? While there is active war going on in Ukraine & Gaza, ongoing Houthi attacks on select civilian shipping in the Red Sea, the IDF just assassinated a senior Hamas commander in Beirut, the US just killed a commander of a pro-Iran militia in Baghdad, ISIS just carried out a major terror attack against Iran, the ME on the verge of a low boiling but sustained regional war, NK just fired hundreds of artillery rounds near (well, that’s better than at, which has happened before) SK held islands w/ SK responding w/ its own military exercise, & Taiwan is holding presidential & parliamentary elections in less than a week (in which is the pro-independence candidate is thought to be leading). Hell of a time to be taking chances!

    I think this firable offense for Austin & certainly Hicks, & probably a few others in Pentagon’s senior leadership.

  27. 27.

    hrprogressive

    @Alison Rose: ​
     

    Only thing that needs to be said is that a substantial portion of Western inhabitants / politicians are actively rooting for Fascism to win, and not enough people with the platforms to say so are doing so.

  28. 28.

    db11

    @YY_Sima Qian: Interesting analysis, thanks.

    Makes you wonder WTF he was thinking (and not just him).

    Also seems weird because the impression up to now has been of a highly competent, stand-up guy.

  29. 29.

    dr. luba

    Eastern christianity does not celebrate Epiphany (the coming of the wise men/3 kings) on January 6, but THEOphany, the baptism of Christ by John the Baptist.  Thus all the water based activities.

  30. 30.

    Lyrebird

    @db11: The comms by others likely deserve the WTF response, but what he was thinking while in an ICU?  Not sure much thinking is happening there, just surviving.  People can go from “hmm this might just be heartburn but let’s check” to emergency procedures real quick, and that’s if they’re lucky enough to get a warning.
    I don’t envy the Biden admin. getting to respond to this now, too, for all the reasons @YY_Sima Qian: mentions.​ ETA: plus all the right wing noise scare-mongering about “too old”.

  32. 32.

    db11

    @Lyrebird: For sure the lack of communication is the issue — but if, as you describe, he was incapacitated in the ICU, how do the people around him decide not to report that up the chain to the WH?

    And I fully agree that Biden doesn’t want to be fielding questions about the judgment of the most senior members of the DOD right now, with everything else he’s dealing with.

  33. 33.

    YY_Sima Qian

    In the meantime, Bloomberg just published an article w/ some shock ing & frankly bizarre claims concerning the reasons behind the Xi’s purge of current & retired leadership Chinese PLA Rocket Force & Chinese state owned weapons manufacturers, which I mentioned in a comment to a dead thread a few days ago.

    I am not subscribed to Bloomberg, but Lyle Morris has a good run down, link to the Bloomberg article in the Twitter thread:

    A thread on this scoop from @PeterMartin_PCM and Jennifer Jacobs of @Bloomberg, which is a bombshell and changes my previous assessments of how much corruption in the PLA is affecting readiness.

    U.S. intel sources suggest corruption is so bad that Xi is less likely to contemplate major military action in the coming years than would otherwise have been the case. Let that sink in….

    Then there these two anecdotes from the IC: – missiles filled with water instead of fuel – vast fields of missile silos in western China with lids that don’t function in a way that would allow the missiles to launch effectively

    This only happens with the confluence of two conditions: 1) pressure to hit accelerated military modernization benchmarks (i.e. 2027) by Xi 2) endemic corruption Even still, it’s mind-boggling that such egregious mistakes could be found in the PLA in 2024

    I had previously assessed that these purges and reports of corruption would not greatly affect PLA readiness. Because corruption has always been a part of doing business in the PLA.

    But this report has me questioning that assessment. If true, this level of corruption DOES affect readiness, which has major implications for Xi’s military modernization goals, operational capabilities in a Taiwan contingency, and in other areas. /END

    A counter point from John Krempasky:

    About THAT article: 1) The PRC has an unbelievable array of highly advanced missiles that are part of an absurdly frequent test program and the vast majority appear to work really, really well. 2) The majority of their missiles use solid, not liquid fuel.

    If the Bloomberg article’s claims are anywhere close to the truth, it would suggest massive corruption that has undermined the PRC’s nuclear deterrent & conventional war fighting capability (in which the PLARF is expected to play a major role against TW, the US & JPN), & the fact that such information has been leaked to US intelligence suggests a major breach. Either one could certainly justify the purge that Xi has carried out, & would in fact demand purging a few levels below the top leadership (for which there currently have not been any information).

    However, the specific bombshell claims are truly bizarre:

    1. The vast majority of the PLARF’s ballistic missiles (for both conventional war fighting & nuclear deterrent) are solid fueled SRBM/MRBM/IRBM/ICBMs, the only liquid fueled ballistic missiles still in PLARF arsenal are the DF-5B ICBMs, numbering no more than a couple of dozen
    2. DF-5Bs, like all liquid fueled ballistic missiles (& rockets for space flights), are only fueled shortly before launch due to difficulty of storage
    3. Missiles w/ solid state fuels have their fuel packs assembled w/ the missile
    4. Therefore it is difficult to see how one could sneak in water in either scenario
    5. the PLARF’s cruise missiles (& other branches’ missiles of various types) are kerosene fueled, so kerosene being replaced (or partially replaced) by water is theoretically conceivable
    6. However, the PLA is known to conduct hundreds of launches of ballistic/cruise missile (plus dozens of hypersonic glide vehicles) in tests & exercises every year, & there have not been many reports of malfunctions; the CNSA conducts space launches at a cadence on par w/ the US, & failed missions have been pretty rare
    7. As for the doors to the missile siloes, the PLARF has operated silo based ICBMs for decades, surely it has a good understanding what kind of door designs would facilitate the launch of the missiles contained in the siloes
    8. In any case, the vast majority of the siloes in the massive fields in NW China are thought to stand empty, as part of the PLARF’s “shell game” strategy to reduce the effectiveness of a US 1st strike & make the PRC’s nuclear deterrent more survivable
    9. Claiming that Xi is assessed to be less likely to contemplate major military action in the next few years due to the scandals suggests that Xi was assessed to be likely to contemplate such actions before the scandals; given the admitted lack of insight the US IC has into the thinking of the CPC leadership, how was that assessment made? Such assessment would only be credible if there is a drop in the dire warnings (bordering on fear mongering) from parts of the USG wrt the PRC’s military ambitions, & all of the talk of “windows” in which the PRC might invade TW.

    In any case, the efficacy of the PLA’s modernization drive under Xi has always been difficult to assess, particularly things like doctrine, tactics, training, morale under fire, capabilities of the new weapons/equipment, etc., since the PLA has not seen combat in 30+ years. However, the PLA conducts numerous exercises every year (sometimes w/ other countries), all which are closely watched by the US & everyone else in the region. The PLA’s weapons across all services have been very well maintained, even the obsolescent ones that are decades old. Reports from encounters w/ the Chinese military, friendly & otherwise, have not suggested poor training or poorly manufactured/maintained equipment. Unlike the Russian Navy, PLAN ships do not break down on long distance deployments far away. Unlike, the Indian Army & AF, the PLAAF, PLANAF & PLA Army Aviation do not suffering from frequent accidents due to poorly maintained aging gear, despite high training tempo (PLAAF pilots now fly ~ 30 – 50% more training hours in the cockpit than USAF pilots). Reports of EW cat & mouse between PLAAF/PLANAF versus USAF/USN aircraft suggest a back & forth contest. & there are reports that USN SSNs are finding the seas w/in the 1st Island Chain a very hostile environment.

    It is possible that the US IC misunderstood the info provided by their sources in the PLA, or the USG officials talking to Bloomberg misunderstood the IC’s reports, or the Bloomberg reporters misunderstood what their USG sources told them. Overall, it is certainly plausible & even likely that corruption remains a major problem for the PLA, resulting in faulty weapons & substandard construction (specifically in the PLARF), which will require replacement or repair, & Xi has purged the commanders/SOE executive responsible.

    Another thing, if the Bloomberg reporting is remotely true, the US IC has just burned what should be some of their most valuable sources in the PLA & the CPC government, networks painstakingly rebuilt after the disaster of 2010. Then again, maybe the sources have already been burned, networks rolled up again, so the USG decided to make propaganda hay & troll Xi.

    Also, this would not be the 1st time Bloomberg face planted when reporting on something technical…

  34. 34.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Lyrebird:

    @db11:

    Apparently Austin was undergoing an elective surgery, in which ICU stay is a potential consequence. He should have told the WH before hand, & at the very least should have left instructions to Hicks on the communication to WH. & Hicks stayed on vacation, w/ everything going on?!

  36. 36.

    YY_Sima Qian

    This Tweet from William Kim made me chuckle:

    SecDef is hospitalized while DepSecDef is on vacation and NSC/WH isn’t notified for days

    PLARF missiles filled with water and silo doors don’t work

    This has massively reinforced my belief that the US-China competition will entirely come down to self-owns

  37. 37.

    db11

    @YY_Sima Qian: My thoughts exactly.

    I should also say that I appreciate your astute commentary here and the deep and wide base of geopolitical knowledge that it reflects.

  38. 38.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @YY_Sima Qian: The fact that analysts w/ domain expertise, such as Jeffrey Lewis, did not dismiss the technical aspects of Bloomberg’s reporting upon 1st glance, leaves me w/ an open mind.

  39. 39.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: I think your reasons for skepticism on this story are excellent.

    I can’t imagine a reasonable sourcing for the story that doesn’t involve some analyst trading half-baked conclusions based on half-digested understanding of half-credible information, for a free round of drinks on Bloomberg.

    I routinely assume endemic corruption in Chinese governance, including PLA, as predictable as it was in the Soviet Union and the Red Army. But just as with the Red Army, assuming that corruption implies a hapless, Potemkin Village of an armed force is imbecilic self-delusion. Thus, Bloomberg.

  40. 40.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @db11: Thank you. I claim no expertise whatsoever (except in my chosen vocation), but I would like to think of myself as decently read.

    Plus, Twitter can be a great source for information if used well, meaning be very selective about who you follow.

  41. 41.

    Carlo Graziani

    Here’s Tom Nichols, of The Atlantic:

    Who, for example, was in charge and able to execute the secretary’s duties during his illness—including taking Austin’s place in the nuclear chain of command? When the president orders the use of nuclear weapons, the secretary of defense confirms those orders to the U.S. Strategic Command. (The secretary has no veto, but he or she must verify that the orders are authentic and came from the president.) In theory, Deputy Secretary Kathleen Hicks would take Austin’s place as the acting secretary, but the Pentagon, according to the Washington Post, has been “ambiguous about what happened in this case,” saying only that Hicks “‘was prepared to act for and exercise the powers’ of the defense secretary, if required.”

    “If required?” The Pentagon was already having a busy week: While Austin was in the hospital, the United States launched an airstrike in Iraq, killing one of the leaders of an Iranian-backed militia. Austin apparently signed off on the strike before his hospitalization, but what if something had gone wrong and a crisis erupted? What if the White House couldn’t find its own secretary of defense quickly in a deteriorating military situation?

    Or, in an even more hair-raising possibility, what if something else had gone wrong—something far more catastrophic?

    At approximately 3 am on November 9, 1979, President Jimmy Carter’s national-security adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski, was awakened by a call from his military aide, Major General William Odom. NORAD, the North American Aerospace Defense Command, had detected the launch of a massive nuclear strike from the Soviet Union against the United States. Brzezinski was about to call the president—he chose not to wake his wife, knowing that she, and everyone else in Washington, D.C., would be dead within a half hour—when Odom called back. It was all a terrible mistake. Someone had goofed, and fed a mock-attack training tape into NORAD’s computers.

    Had anyone involved taken one more step, Carter would have needed an immediate link to his secretary of defense, Harold Brown, both to confirm the attack and order retaliation. Imagine, at such a moment, what might have happened if no one at the White House could locate Brown—especially if the attack turned out to be real.

    Fortunately, the United States did not suffer such a crisis, real or mistaken, while Austin was out of commission. But if Biden and Sullivan had needed to find Austin in a hurry, precious minutes would have been lost in the ensuing confusion. Merely apologizing for keeping the public in the dark isn’t enough. President Biden, Congress, and the American people, need to know exactly what just happened over the past five days.

    Yeah, Austin needs to go, now.

  42. 42.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: I mean, it has been a quite few years since Xi purged active duty commanders in the PLA, & focusing on 1 branch of service, the very commanders he promoted (but should not be thought of as his closest associates). There must be something major to precipitate such acton. Corruption more likely than espionage IMHO, but both are plausible.

    It’s just that the Bloomberg article begs a lot of questions, but it has also prompted a lot of quick takes from the people I follow on Twitter, in all kinds of directions. Some have been quick to suggest “Potempkin’s PLA”, which as you say is quite premature & unsupported.

  43. 43.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Carlo Graziani: Neither he nor anyone else is going to go, because they won’t be able to get their replacements confirmed in the Senate. The nomination for Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, the number 3 at DOD, is currently held up and it isn’t clear that he will, eventually, get confirmed. Tuberville doesn’t have a hold on him, but I guarantee a hold would be put on the nominees to replace Austen or Hicks by Tubberville or other GOP senators unless they get the abortion policy, as well as other “woke” DOD policies reversed.

  44. 44.

    Bupalos

    @Nukular Biskits: I think it’s been very clear for a year at least: As was true in ’91, the U.S. has been unable to formulate a Russia strategy. We believe strongly that what we’d like to see in Russia is…. ????nothing, just letting Putin fester and see what happens.

  47. 47.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: I am now reading that after liquid fuel ballistic missiles have their propellant tanks filled & then drained of propellants (such as during an exercise), the propellant tank is then washed by & filled w/ water, to eliminate the presence of dangerous fumes that might cause explosions.

    It seems your suspicion might be spot on!

  51. 51.

    Another Scott

    @Carlo Graziani: Meh.

    Folks that high up are never really on “vacation”.  They’re always available and expecting the infamous “3 AM phone call”.  With SecDef in the hospital, his deputy would be at the top of the chain and handled whatever needed to be handled.

    Maybe there should have been a public announcement, so that the DoD press corps didn’t get all huffy.  Maybe that underling that should have put out the announcement was on vacation and there was a problem with the handoff.  Maybe Austin had too much on his plate and didn’t think about an announcement in advance.

    Dunno.

    I don’t see a major problem here. The last thing we need now is yet another opportunity for GQP grandstanding for confirmation hearings for a new SecDef.

    Austin put out a statement yesterday.

    FWIW.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  52. 52.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Another Scott: The problem is not that the Pentagon press corp was not notified, but that neither the WH nor the Congressional leadership were aware for days, & that even senior Pentagon officials were not told. They were told that Austin was working from home, while he actually was incapacitated in an ICU at Walter Reed, & his deputy was discharging his duties while herself was out of CONUS w/o many people being aware. All at time of multiple hot spots around the world that could turn much hotter on a dime.

    WTF?! Why?! Why the subterfuge?

  53. 53.

    Another Scott

    @YY_Sima Qian: “Subterfuge” is a very strong word and unwarranted, IMO.

    The reporting I’ve seen says that he went in for a (my words) routine thing and there were unexpected complications that delayed his departure from Walter Reed.

    We’ll potentially know more in coming days.  But, given medical privacy rules, maybe we won’t know as much and as quickly as many seem to want.

    Remember, this is the end-of-year holidays.  Lots and lots of people are on leave, burning up “use-or-lose” time (there was an extra federal pay period this year, so the leave year ends on Saturday 1/13/2024), so it’s quite easy to understand that a notification got delayed.

    We’ll see.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

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